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Quantitative risk analysis for transportation of dangerous goods in Turkiye 土耳其危险货物运输的定量风险分析
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2025.101588
Saliha Cetinyokus , Ahmet Durmus , Tahsin Cetinyokus
This study presents a comprehensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) framework for assessing road transport accidents involving dangerous goods in Turkiye. The proposed methodology integrates national accident statistics, scenario-based event tree modeling, and ALOHA software/ correlations for consequence and impact assessment. Three representative routes in İzmir were selected as pilot areas to evaluate accident frequencies, physical impact zones, and associated individual and societal risks. Results indicate that LNG and LPG transport pose the highest risk levels, with scenario frequencies exceeding the regulatory threshold (1 × 10−4/year). Population exposure analysis revealed that social risk varies significantly with local demographic density. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that both the frequency of the initiating event and population distribution are critical determinants of total risk. The study presents a data-driven, nationally adapted QRA model aligned with Turkish transport infrastructure and regulations, providing a robust decision-support tool for improving road safety and emergency preparedness in dangerous goods logistics.
本研究提出了一个全面的定量风险分析(QRA)框架评估道路运输事故涉及危险货物在土耳其。所提出的方法集成了国家事故统计、基于场景的事件树建模和ALOHA软件/相关性,用于后果和影响评估。在İzmir选择了三条有代表性的路线作为试点地区,以评估事故频率、物理影响区以及相关的个人和社会风险。结果表明,液化天然气和液化石油气运输的风险水平最高,情景频率超过了监管阈值(1 × 10−4/年)。人口暴露分析显示,社会风险随地方人口密度的不同而有显著差异。敏感性分析证实,起始事件的频率和人群分布是总风险的关键决定因素。该研究提出了一个与土耳其运输基础设施和法规相一致的数据驱动的、适合全国的QRA模型,为改善危险品物流中的道路安全和应急准备提供了一个强大的决策支持工具。
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引用次数: 0
Achieving stakeholder consensus in transport: An integrated modelling approach 在交通运输中达成利益相关者共识:一种综合建模方法
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2025.101577
Marios Giouroukelis, Eleni Mantouka, Eleni I. Vlahogianni
The study presents an integrated, data-driven Decision Support Tool designed to facilitate consensus-building among multiple stakeholders in traffic management. It moves beyond conventional preference-fusion techniques by offering modular components that can simulate stakeholder opinion interactions prior to formal participation and support the decision-making phases thereafter. The framework explicitly models the steps from initial opinion collection and network construction (via Bayesian Networks) to determination of a shared consensus, incorporating Opinion Dynamics and Consensus Reaching Process models. The common issues of opinion inconsistency and multitude are addressed using a linear optimization and a fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm, respectively. An application of the methodology on a multi-stakeholder traffic management, namely the synchronization of a demand responsive transport (DRT) system to the backbone of the PT network, is presented, using opinion and interaction data elicited from multiple decision-makers from Athens (GR), Lisbon (PT), Manchester (UK) and Rennes (FR), using a structured questionnaire survey. Results indicate that network efficiency is the primary concern for DRT synchronization strategies, with recommendations emphasizing the importance of modelling stakeholder conflicts, coalition formation, and minority influence in consensus building.
该研究提出了一个综合的、数据驱动的决策支持工具,旨在促进在交通管理的多个利益相关者之间建立共识。它超越了传统的偏好融合技术,通过提供模块化组件,可以模拟利益相关者在正式参与之前的意见互动,并支持之后的决策阶段。该框架明确地模拟了从最初的意见收集和网络构建(通过贝叶斯网络)到确定共享共识的步骤,结合了意见动力学和共识达成过程模型。使用线性优化和模糊c均值聚类算法分别解决了意见不一致和意见众多的常见问题。本文介绍了该方法在多利益相关者交通管理中的应用,即需求响应式交通(DRT)系统与PT网络骨干的同步,该方法使用了从雅典(GR)、里斯本(PT)、曼彻斯特(英国)和雷恩(FR)的多个决策者那里获得的意见和交互数据,采用结构化问卷调查。结果表明,网络效率是DRT同步策略的主要关注点,建议强调建模利益相关者冲突、联盟形成和少数派影响在共识建立中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Dry port development and hinterland air quality: Evidence from dry port developments in China 陆港发展与腹地空气质量:来自中国陆港发展的证据
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2026.101631
Jiahui Li , Sang Yoon Lee , Paul H. Jung
Dry ports serve as critical logistics nodes linking seaports with inland hinterlands, yet their environmental impacts—particularly on urban air quality—remain insufficiently examined. This study investigates the causal relationship between dry port development and urban PM₂.₅ concentrations using data from 29 dry ports across 81 cities in China from 2006 to 2021. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework, this research quantifies the environmental impacts of dry port operations on PM₂.₅ pollution. However, substantial geographic heterogeneity emerges: pollution reductions are most pronounced in cities located 150–600 km from seaports and in regions with developed railway infrastructure, whereas dry ports beyond 750 km from seaports exhibit adverse environmental impacts. Additionally, environmental benefits prove stronger in less economically developed cities and coastal provinces. Overall, the findings demonstrate that environmental benefits are not inherent to dry port development but depend critically on planning integration, regulatory capacity, and transport system maturity. The study emphasizes the importance of considering environmental benefits in dry port policy design and underscores the need for flexible implementation pathways that reflect differences in regional development stages and transport infrastructure maturity.
陆港是连接海港与内陆腹地的关键物流节点,但其环境影响——尤其是对城市空气质量的影响——仍未得到充分研究。本研究探讨了陆地港发展与城市PM₂的因果关系。₅浓度使用了2006年至2021年中国81个城市29个干港的数据。本研究使用差异中的差异(DID)框架,量化了干港运营对PM₂的环境影响。₅污染。然而,出现了巨大的地理异质性:污染减少在距离海港150-600公里的城市和铁路基础设施发达的地区最为明显,而距离海港750公里以上的陆港则表现出不利的环境影响。此外,在经济欠发达的城市和沿海省份,环境效益更强。总体而言,研究结果表明,环境效益并非陆港发展所固有的,而是关键取决于规划一体化、监管能力和运输系统成熟度。该研究强调了在设计陆港政策时考虑环境效益的重要性,并强调需要灵活的实施途径,以反映区域发展阶段和运输基础设施成熟度的差异。
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引用次数: 0
China’s ship visa system and regulatory lifecycle in maritime governance (1952–2017) 中国船舶签证制度与海事治理中的监管生命周期(1952-2017)
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2026.101620
Susheng Zha
This paper employs a historical institutionalism and dynamic cost–benefit analysis (CBA) framework to examine the evolution and eventual abolition of China’s Ship Visa System (SVS) from 1952 to 2017. While existing literature often focuses on discrete regulatory changes, this study provides a longitudinal analysis of a single instrument’s lifecycle, supplemented by post-2017 reform evaluations and in-depth international comparisons. We argue that the SVS evolved from a simple administrative license into a multi-functional regulatory node, central to safety inspection, fee collection, and data aggregation. Our analysis demonstrates that the system’s benefit-to-cost ratio remained positive as long as its ancillary functions—particularly port fee collection—generated significant revenue and operational intelligence. However, the nationwide abolition of port and shipping fees served as a critical juncture, inverting this ratio and leading to the system’s termination as costs (primarily administrative burden and transaction costs) outweighed diminishing benefits. By conducting a systematic comparison between the SVS and the European Union’s River Information Services (RIS), we clarify their similarities, differences, and relative strengths/weaknesses amid maritime digitalization. We also analyze the post-2017 Vessel Entry-Exit Report System (VESREP) as the SVS’s successor, offering cross-temporal insights for global maritime governance. This study theorizes a “regulatory lifecycle model” for maritime governance instruments, positing that sustainability depends on maintaining positive net value amid technological change, policy shifts, and functional unbundling. The research contributes to scholarship on regulatory reform, policy termination, and the political economy of maritime administration.
本文采用历史制度主义和动态成本效益分析(CBA)框架,考察了1952年至2017年中国船舶签证制度(SVS)的演变和最终废除。虽然现有文献往往侧重于离散的监管变化,但本研究对单一工具的生命周期进行了纵向分析,并辅以2017年后的改革评估和深入的国际比较。我们认为,SVS从一个简单的行政许可演变为一个多功能的监管节点,以安全检查、收费和数据汇总为中心。我们的分析表明,只要该系统的辅助功能(尤其是港口收费)能够产生可观的收入和运营情报,该系统的效益成本比就会保持为正。然而,在全国范围内取消港口和海运费用是一个关键节点,扭转了这一比例,并导致该制度的终止,因为成本(主要是行政负担和交易成本)超过了减少的收益。通过对SVS和欧盟河流信息服务(RIS)进行系统比较,我们澄清了它们在海事数字化中的异同和相对优势/劣势。我们还分析了2017年后船舶出入境报告系统(VESREP)作为SVS的继任者,为全球海事治理提供跨时间的见解。本研究将海事治理工具的“监管生命周期模型”理论化,假设可持续性取决于在技术变革、政策转变和功能拆分中保持正净值。该研究对规制改革、政策终止和海事管理的政治经济学等方面的学术研究都有贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Greening business travel in China: Exploring the pathways from corporate sustainable policies to reduced carbon operations footprint with employee consciousness and travel technology adoption 中国的绿色商务旅行:探索从企业可持续发展政策到员工意识和旅行技术采用减少碳足迹的途径
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2025.101561
Chenxi Fan , Abdul Rahman
The research aims to elucidate the impact of corporate sustainable policies on the reduction of carbon footprint within the business travel sector, with a focus on the mediating role of employee consciousness and the moderating influence of travel technology adoption. A survey-based, time-lagged study was conducted, drawing on responses from employees across various industries engaged in corporate travel. Findings suggest that corporate sustainable policies significantly contribute to the reduction of carbon footprint when employees exhibit high levels of environmental consciousness. Furthermore, the adoption of travel technologies was found to enhance this relationship, albeit differentially across various levels of technology integration. The study's implications emphasize the importance of fostering employee environmental consciousness and investing in travel technology for businesses aiming to realize their sustainability objectives. These insights have practical ramifications for corporate policy formulation, suggesting a strategic alignment of human resource initiatives with sustainability goals to amplify environmental performance.
本研究旨在阐明企业可持续发展政策对商旅部门碳足迹减少的影响,重点研究员工意识的中介作用和旅行技术采用的调节作用。我们进行了一项基于调查的滞后研究,收集了从事商务旅行的不同行业员工的反馈。研究结果表明,当员工表现出高水平的环境意识时,企业可持续发展政策显著有助于减少碳足迹。此外,旅游技术的采用也增强了这种关系,尽管在不同的技术整合水平上存在差异。该研究强调了培养员工环保意识和投资旅游技术对企业实现可持续发展目标的重要性。这些见解对公司政策制定具有实际影响,建议将人力资源倡议与可持续发展目标进行战略协调,以扩大环境绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging the digital divide in older adults' smart public transport experience: A design proposal and validation study based on PCN and factor analysis 弥合老年人智能公共交通体验中的数字鸿沟:基于PCN和因素分析的设计方案和验证研究
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2026.101618
Zheng Wang , Rong Deng , Robbie Napper , Zhiyuan Wang
The development of age-friendly smart bus services is a vital aspect of sustainable urban development and sustainable transport, particularly in the context of an increasingly aging population and the growing demand for elderly-adaptive transit systems. However, significant research gaps remain in understanding the user experience of older adults in such systems. Moreover, how to optimize smart transit services to encourage seniors' outdoor activities and consumption—thereby promoting the silver economy and achieving truly sustainable smart public transport—has yet to receive sufficient scholarly attention. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach combining user interviews, literature review, and Process Chain Network (PCN) analysis to design an integrated age-friendly smart bus service system. The proposed system encompasses digital mobile applications, physical vehicles, and operational service mechanisms. A corresponding user experience evaluation scale was developed and validated using factor analysis and linear regression. Seven key dimensions were identified: service quality, information accessibility, operational scheduling, interpersonal interaction, social equity, perceived usefulness, and environmental atmosphere. All were found to positively influence satisfaction. Among them, service quality, information accessibility, operational scheduling, and perceived usefulness consistently played a dominant role in both real-time experience and overall satisfaction assessments, warranting prioritized focus. This study establishes for the first time a user experience evaluation scale for aging-friendly smart bus services and proposes a systematic service design framework. By constructing a satisfaction model, the design is validated and the priority differences among factors between real-time experience and overall satisfaction are compared. The findings provide theoretical foundations and practical guidance for optimizing such services, demonstrating significant research value.
老年人友好型智能公交服务的发展是可持续城市发展和可持续交通的一个重要方面,特别是在人口日益老龄化和对老年人适应性公交系统需求不断增长的背景下。然而,在了解老年人在此类系统中的用户体验方面,仍存在重大的研究差距。此外,如何优化智能交通服务,鼓励老年人的户外活动和消费,从而促进银发经济,实现真正可持续的智能公共交通,尚未得到足够的学术关注。本研究采用用户访谈、文献回顾、流程链网络(Process Chain Network, PCN)分析相结合的混合方法,设计一套综合的高龄友善型智慧巴士服务系统。拟议的系统包括数字移动应用程序、物理车辆和操作服务机制。采用因子分析和线性回归方法,编制了相应的用户体验评价量表,并进行了验证。研究确定了七个关键维度:服务质量、信息可及性、操作调度、人际互动、社会公平、感知有用性和环境氛围。所有这些都对满意度产生了积极影响。其中,服务质量、信息可访问性、操作调度和感知有用性始终在实时体验和总体满意度评估中发挥主导作用,保证优先关注。本研究首次建立了老年人友好型智能公交服务的用户体验评价量表,并提出了系统的服务设计框架。通过构建满意度模型,对设计进行验证,比较实时体验与整体满意度之间各因素的优先级差异。研究结果为优化服务提供了理论基础和实践指导,具有重要的研究价值。
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引用次数: 0
Eco-productivity changes of US airlines during turbulent times: A non-convex biennial Malmquist-Luenberger index approach 动荡时期美国航空公司生态生产力的变化:两年一次的非凸Malmquist-Luenberger指数方法
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2026.101626
Minh-Anh Thi Nguyen
Aviation sector contributes 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions and 4% of global warming, making it a rapidly growing contributor of climate change. Without urgent action, aviation emissions are projected to triple by 2050. This study addresses the pressing need for effective mitigation strategies by examining the eco-productivity changes and their drivers among US airlines from 2018 to 2022, a period marked by stricter environmental regulations and the COVID-19 pandemic. To provide a more robust assessment of eco-productivity change, this study introduces a new Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index that utilizes a non-convex biennial production frontier. This approach effectively incorporates undesirable outputs into productivity change assessments, resolves potential infeasibility issues, and ensures more consistent, reliable estimation. The index further enables evaluation of how changes in technology, eco-efficiency, and operational scale shaped eco-productivity trends and help identify industry benchmarks. Our findings reveal an initial decline in eco-productivity due to the pandemic, followed by a rebound driven by technological innovation and improved management, alongside a shift to decreasing returns to scale. The recovery rates varied among US airlines, reflecting diverse abilities to balance economic viability with environmental responsibility. Building on these results, we provide practical strategies for the airlines to balance between sustainability and economic viability by pinpointing key areas of progress and highlighting opportunities for improvement. Furthermore, benchmarking facilitates knowledge sharing across the industry, enabling airlines to learn from best practices to drive the collective progress of the industry.
航空业占全球二氧化碳排放量的2.5%,全球变暖的4%,是气候变化的快速增长的贡献者。如果不采取紧急行动,预计到2050年航空排放量将增加两倍。本研究通过研究2018年至2022年美国航空公司生态生产力的变化及其驱动因素,解决了对有效缓解战略的迫切需求,这一时期的环境法规更加严格,COVID-19大流行。为了提供更可靠的生态生产力变化评估,本研究引入了一个新的Malmquist-Luenberger生产力指数,该指数利用非凸两年生产前沿。这种方法有效地将不需要的输出合并到生产力变化评估中,解决潜在的不可行性问题,并确保更一致、更可靠的评估。该指数进一步有助于评估技术、生态效率和运营规模的变化如何影响生态生产力趋势,并有助于确定行业基准。我们的研究结果表明,由于大流行,生态生产力最初出现下降,随后在技术创新和管理改进的推动下出现反弹,同时向规模收益递减的转变。美国各航空公司的回收率各不相同,反映了平衡经济可行性与环境责任的不同能力。在这些结果的基础上,我们为航空公司提供了切实可行的策略,通过确定关键的进步领域和突出改进的机会,来平衡可持续性和经济可行性。此外,标杆管理促进了整个行业的知识共享,使航空公司能够从最佳实践中学习,从而推动行业的整体进步。
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引用次数: 0
Rail competition and price dynamics in Czechia and Austria 捷克和奥地利的铁路竞争和价格动态
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2026.101634
Ondřej Špetík , Hana Fitzová , Zdeněk Tomeš , Vilém Pařil
Recent evidence from competitive European rail routes has shown that rail competition substantially influences fare dynamics. This paper investigates the impact of competition on fare development in two liberalized rail markets, Czechia and Austria, between 2019 and 2024. Average fares in Austria were approximately twice as high as in Czechia, reflecting higher income levels, faster rail services, and differences in discount schemes. While new entrants initially adopted low-price strategies to gain market share, their long-term strategies diverged. Some of the operators maintained relatively stable prices and low fares, whereas others shifted towards more flexible pricing.
The structure and intensity of dynamic pricing were closely tied to market structure. Highly competitive markets exhibited stronger price variability across days of the week as well as across purchase lead times. Less competitive markets displayed more stable pricing patterns. These findings highlight that mature rail competition does not lead to uniform price reductions but fosters differentiated pricing strategies.
最近来自竞争激烈的欧洲铁路线路的证据表明,铁路竞争实质上影响了票价动态。本文研究了2019年至2024年间,竞争对捷克和奥地利两个自由化铁路市场票价发展的影响。奥地利的平均票价大约是捷克的两倍,这反映了更高的收入水平、更快的铁路服务和不同的折扣方案。虽然新进入者最初采用低价策略来获得市场份额,但他们的长期策略却大相径庭。一些运营商保持相对稳定的价格和较低的票价,而其他运营商则转向更灵活的定价。动态定价的结构和强度与市场结构密切相关。在竞争激烈的市场中,价格在一周的不同时间内以及在不同的采购周期内都表现出了更强的变异性。竞争较少的市场显示出更稳定的定价模式。这些发现强调,成熟的铁路竞争不会导致统一的价格下降,但会促进差异化的定价策略。
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引用次数: 0
Economic and logistical performance of refrigerated electric and hydrogen light commercial vehicles. A total cost of ownership and hybrid simulation perspective 冷藏电动和氢燃料轻型商用车的经济和物流性能。总拥有成本和混合模拟视角
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2026.101595
Romeo Danielis , Arsalan Muhammad Khan Niazi , Mariangela Scorrano , Manuela Masutti
The paper investigates whether refrigerated diesel light commercial vehicles (D-LCVs) could be substituted by refrigerated electric LCVs (E-LCVs) or hydrogen LCVs (H2-LCVs), considering both their economic and logistics performances. The economic performance is evaluated via the total cost of ownership (TCO) methodology, while the logistics one is estimated via a multi-agent simulation model. If LCVs are operated in urban contexts, we find that both alternative powertrains exhibit operational parity versus D-LCVs, irrespective of the weather conditions. In terms of TCO, however, only E-LCVs are almost competitive with D-LCVs, while H2-LCVs are by far costlier. If LCVs are used to distribute refrigerated goods in regional contexts (with longer travel distances), E-LCVs show lower logistical efficiency than D-LCVs under normal conditions, further exacerbated in extreme weather, although they have better TCO metrics. On the contrary, H2-LCVs achieved similar logistical efficiency than D-LCVs but continue to show very poor economics.
本文从经济性和物流性能两方面考察了冷藏柴油轻型商用车(d - lcv)是否可以被冷藏电动轻型商用车(e - lcv)或氢轻型商用车(h2 - lcv)所取代。经济绩效通过总拥有成本(TCO)方法进行评估,而物流绩效则通过多智能体仿真模型进行评估。如果lcv在城市环境中运行,我们发现无论天气条件如何,这两种替代动力系统都与d - lcv表现出相同的性能。然而,就TCO而言,只有e - lcv几乎可以与d - lcv竞争,而h2 - lcv的成本要高得多。如果使用轻型货车在区域范围内配送冷藏货物(运输距离较长),在正常情况下,e -轻型货车的物流效率低于d -轻型货车,在极端天气下,这种情况会进一步恶化,尽管它们具有更好的TCO指标。相反,h2 - lcv的物流效率与d - lcv相似,但经济性仍然很差。
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引用次数: 0
Dry port site selection in Türkiye: Spatial and optimization-based analysis 浙江陆港选址:基于空间和优化的分析
IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2026.101596
Büşra Yılmaz , Murat Oturakçı , Uğur Eliiyi , Deniz Türsel Eliiyi , Esra Ekinci
Dry ports are a strategic necessity in Türkiye's Aegean Region due to increasing demand and limited port capacity. This study suggests an integrated, sustainability-oriented approach that combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods, and scenario-based mathematical optimization for dry port location in the Aegean Region of Türkiye. First, 17 spatial and non-spatial criteria derived from expert surveys and literature review were weighted by the Best-Worst Method (BWM). The criteria were transformed into suitability maps in a GIS environment. Second, the candidate areas were assessed with a two-objective optimization model under different scenarios subject to certain constraints. Based on the model results used in the study, suitable areas were identified as Aydın-Karpuzlu, İzmir-Tire, and Denizli-Denizler. The analyses conducted within this study are not limited to spatial analysis. This study, which has the potential to guide strategic decision-making processes, can be considered a very powerful practical tool for decision-makers.
由于日益增长的需求和有限的港口容量,陆港是基耶岛爱琴海地区的战略需要。本研究提出了一种综合的、以可持续性为导向的方法,该方法结合了地理信息系统(GIS)、多标准决策(MCDM)方法和基于场景的数学优化方法,用于 rkiye爱琴海地区的干港选址。首先,采用最佳-最差法(Best-Worst Method, BWM)对专家调查和文献综述得出的17个空间和非空间标准进行加权。这些标准在GIS环境中被转换成适宜性图。其次,在一定的约束条件下,采用双目标优化模型对候选区域进行评估。根据研究中使用的模型结果,确定了适合的区域为Aydın-Karpuzlu, İzmir-Tire和Denizli-Denizler。本研究的分析并不局限于空间分析。该研究具有指导战略决策过程的潜力,可以被认为是决策者非常强大的实用工具。
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引用次数: 0
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Research in Transportation Business and Management
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