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Social Origins of Modern Terrorism, 1860–1945 现代恐怖主义的社会起源,1860-1945
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2178962
Joshua Tschantret
Abstract Why did modern terrorism arise as a form of political violence? Scholars have located its origins in the mid-nineteenth century, a development that culminated in a global wave of terrorism and contributed to the outbreak of World War I. Despite consensus on its period of origin, we lack any explanation for why this development occurred. This article forwards a social theory for the origins of modern terrorism. Civic associations, which proliferated globally in the nineteenth century, provided the opportunity and motivation for the development of terrorism. Associations not only fostered the social and human capital necessary for terrorism; they also frequently generated grievances through an inability to enact political change and via ideological propaganda. I test this theory using an original global dataset of terrorist groups formed between 1860 and 1945. Statistical analysis reveals that cities with a YMCA, an exogenous indicator of associationism, were much more likely than those without to see the formation of terrorist groups. Additionally, terrorist groups are formed during civil wars, indicating that armed conflict can spur dramatic innovations in violent contention.
现代恐怖主义为什么会作为一种政治暴力形式出现?学者们把它的起源定位在19世纪中叶,这一发展在全球恐怖主义浪潮中达到顶峰,并导致了第一次世界大战的爆发。尽管对其起源时期有共识,但我们对这种发展发生的原因缺乏任何解释。本文提出了现代恐怖主义起源的社会理论。19世纪,公民协会在全球范围内激增,为恐怖主义的发展提供了机会和动机。协会不仅培育了恐怖主义所必需的社会和人力资本;他们还经常因为无力实施政治变革和意识形态宣传而引起不满。我用1860年至1945年间形成的恐怖组织的原始全球数据集来验证这一理论。统计分析显示,拥有基督教青年会(一种关联主义的外生指标)的城市,比没有基督教青年会的城市更容易形成恐怖组织。此外,恐怖组织是在内战期间形成的,这表明武装冲突可以在暴力争夺中激发戏剧性的创新。
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引用次数: 1
How Peacekeepers Fight: Assessing Combat Effectiveness in United Nations Peace Operations 维和人员如何作战:评估联合国和平行动的战斗力
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2178965
Paul D. Williams
Abstract Contrary to popular perceptions, United Nations (UN) peacekeepers engage in combat fairly frequently. A central challenge facing the UN is thus calibration between force and politics: ensuring the organization’s combat power is harnessed to viable political strategies for peace. However, the epistemic community on peacekeeping remains deeply divided between skeptics and proponents of “robust” operations, where peacekeepers are expected to use force to implement mission mandates. This article suggests that militarily effective, robust peacekeeping is most important for improving civilian protection and ensuring mission credibility in theaters where there is no peace to keep; proposes a novel framework and typology to assess combat effectiveness in UN peace operations; and compiles descriptive statistics for the 1948–2020 period. Finally, case studies of four battles involving UN peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo illuminate the conditions that are conducive to the UN’s combat effectiveness.
摘要与普遍看法相反,联合国维和人员经常参与战斗。因此,联合国面临的一个核心挑战是在武力和政治之间进行校准:确保该组织的战斗力被用于可行的和平政治战略。然而,关于维和的认识界仍然存在严重分歧,既有怀疑论者,也有“强有力”行动的支持者,维和人员将使用武力执行特派团任务。这篇文章表明,在没有和平可言的战区,军事上有效、有力的维和行动对于改善平民保护和确保特派团的信誉至关重要;提出了评估联合国和平行动战斗力的新框架和类型;并汇编了1948年至2020年期间的描述性统计数据。最后,对联合国维和人员在刚果民主共和国的四场战斗的案例研究阐明了有利于联合国战斗力的条件。
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引用次数: 4
Public Opinion and the Nuclear Taboo Across Nations: An Exchange – The Authors Reply 舆论与各国核禁忌:交流——作者回复
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2178971
Janina Dill, Scott D. Sagan, B. Valentino
Thinking deeply about how a nuclear war might break out is neither easy nor enjoyable. Scholars do so, however, because we hope that contemplating the pathways by which such a cataclysm might happen today could lower the risk one will happen in the future. For that reason, we owe a special thanks to Mark S. Bell, Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer, Yogesh Joshi, Benôıt Pelopidas, and Kjølv Egeland, who have joined us in this discomforting mission. Our article found that different states have similar “kettles of hawks” who favored nuclear use across different scenarios. We are pleased that the contributors to this exchange have formed “a parliament of owls” that has raised important questions, forwarded valuable insights, helped us clarify key points in our own thinking, and pointed the way toward critical new research on nuclear war. One important factor that could affect the likelihood of nuclear war is whether the public would be a constraint on or a goad to political leaders contemplating the use of nuclear weapons. Aided by new survey methods in the past decade, scholars, including those contributing to this symposium, have made significant progress in understanding how the publics of nuclear-armed countries think about nuclear war. Nevertheless, important questions remain and, as is often the case in scholarly progress, answering some questions generates others we could not see clearly before. It would be both tedious and churlish for us to identify each point of agreement and disagreement we have with these four thoughtful commentaries. Instead, this essay has three parts. First, we comment on what we consider the most important points of contention raised by Bell, Pelopidas and Egeland, Joshi, and Braut-Hegghammer. Second, we discuss our views about why it is important for scholars to research and write about disturbing, and even dangerous, public beliefs about the use of force. We argue
深入思考核战争可能如何爆发既不容易,也不愉快。然而,学者们这样做是因为我们希望,思考今天可能发生这样一场灾难的途径,可以降低未来发生灾难的风险。因此,我们特别感谢Mark S.Bell、Målfrid Braut Hegghamer、Yogesh Joshi、Benıt Pelopidas和Kjølv Egeland,他们加入了我们的这一令人不安的任务。我们的文章发现,不同的州有类似的“鹰派”,他们在不同的情况下支持核使用。我们很高兴这次交流的贡献者组成了“猫头鹰议会”,提出了重要问题,提出了宝贵的见解,帮助我们澄清了自己思想中的关键点,并为核战争的新的关键研究指明了方向。可能影响核战争可能性的一个重要因素是,公众是否会约束或刺激考虑使用核武器的政治领导人。在过去十年中,在新的调查方法的帮助下,学者们,包括本次研讨会的参与者,在理解拥有核武器国家的公众如何看待核战争方面取得了重大进展。然而,重要的问题仍然存在,正如学术进步中经常发生的那样,回答一些问题会产生我们以前看不清楚的其他问题。对我们来说,用这四篇深思熟虑的评论来确定我们的每一个一致点和分歧点既乏味又无礼。相反,本文分为三个部分。首先,我们评论贝尔、佩洛皮达斯和埃格兰、乔希和布劳特·赫格哈默尔提出的我们认为最重要的争论点。其次,我们讨论了我们的观点,即为什么学者研究和撰写关于使用武力的令人不安甚至危险的公众信仰很重要。我们争论
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引用次数: 0
Thinking about What People Think about Nuclear Weapons 思考人们对核武器的看法
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2178969
Benoît Pelopidas, Kjølv Egeland
Abstract What do people really think about nuclear weapons? Responding to Dill, Sagan, and Valentino's “Kettles of Hawks” in Security Studies 31, we examine the inconsistency between different surveys of public attitudes toward nuclear weapons use. We maintain that different survey techniques tap into disparate layers of opinion—each of which is “real” in their own way and of analytical value depending on the research question being asked. We conclude by reflecting on scholarly responsibility and the dilemmas associated with researching and communicating about potentially sensitive knowledge.
人们对核武器的真实看法是什么?作为对迪尔、萨根和瓦伦蒂诺在《安全研究》(Security Studies 31)上的“鹰之壶”的回应,我们研究了公众对核武器使用态度的不同调查之间的不一致性。我们认为,不同的调查技术挖掘了不同层次的意见,每一个都以自己的方式“真实”,并根据所提出的研究问题具有分析价值。最后,我们反思了学术责任以及与潜在敏感知识的研究和交流相关的困境。
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引用次数: 0
The Nuclear Taboo and the Inevitability of Uncertainty 核禁忌和不确定性的必然性
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2178966
Mark S. Bell
The nuclear taboo—a strong normative inhibition on the use of nuclear weapons—is one of the most important concepts in the study of nuclear weapons. In the last few years, however, the idea of the taboo has come under attack. Notably, a series of studies have shown that mass publics appear quite comfortable with using nuclear weapons. When given hypothetical scenarios in which nuclear use might be considered, publics appear willing to use nuclear weapons, and concerns about (im)morality appear to weigh less heavily than narrow assessments of military utility. In the latest contribution to this research agenda, Janina Dill, Scott D. Sagan, and Benjamin A. Valentino (hereafter DSV) demonstrate that not only Americans appear comfortable with nuclear use. Surveying publics in France, Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States, they show similar patterns in each country: respondents are surprisingly willing to use nuclear weapons and appear responsive to assessments of military utility. Scholars previously raised the possibility that US publics might be unusual as a caveat qualifying prior findings. DSV’s argument and evidence thus represent an important contribution, showing that prior findings can in fact be replicated across a range of democracies. As someone who has contended that states use nuclear weapons in opportunistic ways relatively unencumbered by normative constraints, and elsewhere has found elements of consistency in public opinion across
核禁忌是对核武器使用的强烈规范抑制,是核武器研究中最重要的概念之一。然而,在过去的几年里,禁忌的想法受到了攻击。值得注意的是,一系列研究表明,公众似乎对使用核武器感到相当自在。当给出可能考虑使用核武器的假设情景时,公众似乎愿意使用核武器,对(非)道德的担忧似乎没有对军事用途的狭隘评估那么重要。在这项研究议程的最新贡献中,Janina Dill, Scott D. Sagan和Benjamin A. Valentino(以下简称DSV)表明,不仅美国人似乎对使用核武器感到满意。对法国、以色列、英国和美国公众的调查显示,每个国家都有类似的模式:令人惊讶的是,受访者愿意使用核武器,而且似乎对军事用途的评估做出了反应。此前,学者们提出了美国公众可能不寻常的可能性,作为对先前研究结果的警告。因此,DSV的论点和证据是一个重要的贡献,表明先前的发现实际上可以在一系列民主国家中复制。有人主张国家以机会主义的方式使用核武器,相对不受规范约束,在其他地方发现了公众舆论的一致性
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引用次数: 0
Birds of a Feather? Probing Cross-National Variation in Nuclear Inhibitions 物以类聚?探讨核抑制的跨国差异
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2178967
Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer
Abstract What are the causes of cross-national variation in nuclear hawkishness? In the third nuclear age such variation is likely to be more consequential than in the past. While such variation has been observed, it has not been explained. This article probes possible causes of such variation drawing on a new wave of research on nuclear inhibitions. Specifically, I explore how the threat environment, domestic-level factors, and elite maneuvering, can affect nuclear hawkishness. I argue that hawkishness is less likely to be an outlier phenomenon among the more recent nuclear weapons states and in the broader universe of cases.
核鹰派的跨国差异的原因是什么?在第三个核时代,这种变化可能比过去更为重要。虽然这种变化已经被观察到,但还没有得到解释。本文从核抑制研究的新浪潮出发,探讨了这种变化的可能原因。具体来说,我探讨了威胁环境,国内层面的因素,以及精英操纵,如何影响核鹰派。我认为,在新近拥有核武器的国家和更广泛的案例中,鹰派不太可能是一种异常现象。
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引用次数: 0
Conceptualizing Civil War Complexity 概念化内战的复杂性
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2178964
Johan Brosché, Desirée Nilsson, Ralph Sundberg
Abstract Civil wars that appear to observers to be the most complex—even using a colloquial understanding of the concept—are also those that seem to register the most intense fighting, the most prolonged spells of war, and the most resistance to durable conflict resolution. But what does it really mean for a civil war to be complex? We currently lack a concept of “civil war complexity” that can help us better understand the most important variations in civil wars across time and space. To address this gap we develop a conceptualization of “civil war complexity” consisting of three dimensions—“actor complexity,” “behavior complexity,” and “issue complexity”—and demonstrate how they manifest empirically. We also highlight this conceptualization’s utility—and the danger of overlooking it—through the case of Darfur. This conceptualization paves the way for a new research agenda that explores how civil wars differ in terms of their complexity, the causes and consequences of civil war complexity, and how to refine conflict resolution techniques and strategies.
在观察家看来,最复杂的内战——即使使用通俗的概念理解——似乎也记录了最激烈的战斗,最持久的战争,以及对持久冲突解决的最大阻力。但是内战复杂到底意味着什么呢?我们目前缺乏一个“内战复杂性”的概念,这个概念可以帮助我们更好地理解内战在时间和空间上最重要的变化。为了解决这一差距,我们发展了一个由三个维度组成的“内战复杂性”的概念化——“行动者复杂性”、“行为复杂性”和“问题复杂性”——并演示了它们是如何在经验上表现出来的。我们还通过达尔富尔的案例强调了这种概念化的效用——以及忽视它的危险。这种概念化为新的研究议程铺平了道路,探索内战在复杂性方面的差异,内战复杂性的原因和后果,以及如何改进解决冲突的技术和策略。
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引用次数: 1
Blood Revenge in Civil War: Proof of Concept 内战中的血腥复仇:概念证明
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2153731
E. Souleimanov, David S. Siroky, Roberto Colombo
Abstract As an embedded sociocultural code, blood revenge is present in many societies where civil wars occur. Whereas evidence from other social sciences attests to its enduring global significance, security studies scholarship has largely neglected the custom of blood revenge. This article is the first to investigate its relevance for understanding the inception, dynamics, and aftermath of armed conflicts, and to present a comprehensive account of how blood revenge may shape civil wars. Drawing upon multidisciplinary scholarship, cross-case qualitative evidence, and a newly compiled dataset, this proof-of-concept article illustrates how blood revenge influences key dynamics in civil wars—specifically, the processes of violent mobilization, target selection, recruitment, defection, and disengagement. Setting the stage for further inquiries into the causes, mechanisms, and consequences of blood revenge in civil war, this conceptual article suggests why and how this sociocultural code continues to influence civil wars across the world.
作为一种根深蒂固的社会文化规范,血复仇存在于许多发生内战的社会中。尽管来自其他社会科学的证据证明了其持久的全球意义,但安全研究的学术研究在很大程度上忽视了血腥复仇的习俗。本文首次探讨了其与理解武装冲突的开始、动态和后果的相关性,并全面阐述了血腥复仇如何塑造内战。利用多学科学术研究、跨案例定性证据和新汇编的数据集,这篇概念验证文章阐述了血腥复仇如何影响内战中的关键动态——特别是暴力动员、目标选择、招募、叛逃和脱离交战的过程。这篇概念性文章为进一步研究内战中血腥复仇的原因、机制和后果奠定了基础,并提出了这种社会文化准则为何以及如何继续影响世界各地的内战。
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引用次数: 0
Empathy, Risk-Taking, and Concession-Making: Gorbachev’s Bold Proposals at Reykjavik to End the US-Soviet Arms Race 同理心、冒险和让步:戈尔巴乔夫在雷克雅未克结束美苏军备竞赛的大胆建议
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-21 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2023.2153730
Shahin Berenji
Abstract Why do decision makers undertake bold conciliatory gestures? It is puzzling why leaders accommodate their rivals in such a way when smaller, less risky avenues exist to initiate conciliation. To shed light on this question, I examine Mikhail Gorbachev’s decision to present an unprecedented package of arms control proposals at the Reykjavik summit. In one stroke, he made concessions to the United States on missile defense and strategic and intermediate-range nuclear weapons. Gorbachev believed he needed to reassure the Americans, particularly President Ronald Reagan, of the Soviet Union’s benign intentions and therefore made concessions that addressed US fears and security concerns. I argue that these concessions constitute empathic signals designed to communicate Gorbachev’s sincerity in reducing nuclear weapons. In the event his offer was rebuffed, Gorbachev would reveal his proposals to mobilize public opinion against Reagan. These strategies may seem contradictory but fit Gorbachev’s overall plan to challenge the Soviet Union’s threatening image and, in doing so, either persuade or pressure Reagan into reciprocating Soviet concessions.
决策者为何采取大胆的和解姿态?令人费解的是,当存在更小、风险更小的和解途径时,领导人为什么要以这种方式接纳对手。为了阐明这个问题,我考察了米哈伊尔•戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)在雷克雅未克峰会上提出一套史无前例的军备控制建议的决定。他一下子在导弹防御、战略和中程核武器问题上向美国做出了让步。戈尔巴乔夫认为,他需要让美国人,尤其是罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)总统,对苏联的善意放心,因此做出了让步,以消除美国的恐惧和安全担忧。我认为,这些让步构成了移情信号,旨在传达戈尔巴乔夫在削减核武器方面的诚意。如果他的提议被拒绝,戈尔巴乔夫将透露他的建议,以动员公众舆论反对里根。这些策略看似矛盾,但符合戈尔巴乔夫的总体计划,即挑战苏联的威胁形象,并以此说服或施压里根,使其对苏联作出让步。
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引用次数: 0
Symbolic Amplification and Suboptimal Weapons Procurement: Explaining Turkey’s S-400 Program 符号放大和次优武器采购:解释土耳其的S-400计划
IF 1.8 2区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-10-20 DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2022.2153733
Lisel Hintz, David E Banks
Abstract Turkey’s 2019 acquisition of Russian S-400 missile batteries is puzzling. Despite repeated threats of sanctions by the United States, North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Turkey purchased a multi-billion-dollar Russian air defense system that remains nonoperational, fails to cover Turkey’s air defense gap, and led to Turkey’s costly expulsion from the F-35 program. We argue unexpected domestic constraints created by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)’s symbolic diplomacy raised the political costs of backing away from the deal. Collecting data from media reports and interviews, we analyze how Turkey’s AKP wielded the S-400 as a weapons system legitimating an identity narrative of Turkey as regional counterhegemon, facilitating the cultivation of coalitions with multiple, often competing, constituencies. We demonstrate via process tracing how the inherent ambiguity of symbols allowed nationalist constituencies key to the AKP’s hold on power to amplify the S-400 as symbolic of Turkey’s sovereignty, trapping Turkish officials in a costly policy corner. In unpacking Turkey’s S-400 purchase, the article contributes to the literature on symbolic diplomacy, audience costs, weapons procurement, and deterrence failure.
土耳其2019年购买俄罗斯S-400导弹系统令人费解。尽管美国一再威胁制裁,北约盟国土耳其购买了价值数十亿美元的俄罗斯防空系统,但该系统仍然无法使用,无法弥补土耳其的防空缺口,并导致土耳其被逐出F-35项目,代价高昂。我们认为,执政的正义与发展党(AKP)的象征性外交造成了意想不到的国内限制,提高了退出该协议的政治成本。从媒体报道和采访中收集数据,我们分析了土耳其的正义与发展党如何将S-400作为一种武器系统,使土耳其作为地区反霸权的身份叙事合法化,促进了与多个经常竞争的选区的联盟的培养。我们通过过程追踪展示了符号的固有模糊性如何允许民族主义选区成为正义与发展党掌握权力的关键,以扩大S-400作为土耳其主权的象征,使土耳其官员陷入代价高昂的政策困境。在分析土耳其购买S-400的过程中,这篇文章对象征外交、受众成本、武器采购和威慑失败的文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 1
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