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A Simple Model of Intergenerational Mobility Under the Heterogeneous Effects of Public Expenditure 公共支出异质性效应下代际流动的简单模型
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-14 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12508
Lifeng Zhang, Yanhua Xu

This paper analyzes the relationships among intergenerational mobility, human capital and public expenditure. We propose to incorporate the heterogeneous effects of public expenditure into a standard overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation. We show that these heterogeneous effects alter the shape of the relationships among intergenerational mobility, human capital and public expenditure in a way that has new policy implications. First, intergenerational mobility depends on the heterogeneous effects of public expenditure. Second, the relationship between public expenditure and intergenerational mobility can be either positive or negative. Third, public expenditure produces a non-monotonic effect on human capital. We find that when fiscal policy increases intergenerational mobility, the level of human capital may decrease. The government may therefore face a trade-off between fostering intergenerational mobility and increasing the level of human capital through public expenditure.

本文分析了代际流动、人力资本和公共支出之间的关系。我们建议将公共支出的异质性效应纳入人力资本积累的标准重叠代模型。我们表明,这些异质效应改变了代际流动性、人力资本和公共支出之间关系的形态,这在某种程度上具有新的政策含义。首先,代际流动性取决于公共支出的异质性效应。其次,公共支出与代际流动性之间的关系可以是正的,也可以是负的。第三,公共支出对人力资本产生非单调效应。我们发现,当财政政策增加代际流动性时,人力资本水平可能会下降。因此,政府可能要在促进代际流动和通过公共支出提高人力资本水平之间做出权衡。
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引用次数: 0
External Effect of Entry 进入的外部效应
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-14 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12501
Steffen Ziss

This paper provides an analysis of the external effect of entry for both differentiated and homogenous products which takes account of the integer constraint, allows for cost-based or quality-based differences in firm size and for variation in firm conduct. The analysis shows that the external effect of entry is positive if the entrant is sufficiently large compared to the average incumbent, but not necessarily larger than the average incumbent, market conduct is competitive, there are few incumbents, marginal cost is steep relative to demand or products are sufficiently differentiated. These results contribute to the literature by expanding the set of market settings for which the external effect of entry is positive and thus for which profitable entry raises welfare.

本文分析了差异化产品和同质化产品进入市场的外部效应,其中考虑到了整数约束,允许企业规模存在基于成本或基于质量的差异,以及企业行为的变化。分析表明,如果进入者与平均在位者相比规模足够大(但不一定比平均在位者大)、市场行为具有竞争性、在位者数量少、边际成本相对于需求较高、或产品具有足够的差异化,则进入的外部效应为正。这些结果扩大了市场环境的范围,在这些市场环境中,进入的外部效应为正,因此盈利性进入会提高福利。
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引用次数: 0
Successful Central Banks Can Afford to Pay Scant Attention to Money 成功的央行可以承担对货币不够关注的后果
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12506
Papadia Francesco, Cadamuro Leonardo

In the last few decades, central bankers and economists have paid little attention to monetary aggregates, in contrast with the experience of the 1970s and the 1980s. Our evidence shows that monetary aggregates lose relevance when central banks maintain low and stable inflation, as has occurred in recent decades. However, to move from unstable to stable inflation, our findings also show that attention to monetary aggregates is needed. Our findings help resolve the long-standing controversy about the importance of monetary aggregates for the conduct of monetary policy: monetary aggregates are vital to move from unstable to stable inflation but lose relevance once a central bank has consistently reached price stability.

在过去的几十年里,中央银行家和经济学家很少关注货币总量,这与20世纪70年代和80年代的经历形成了鲜明对比。我们的证据表明,当央行维持低而稳定的通胀时,货币总量就会失去相关性,就像近几十年来发生的那样。然而,要从不稳定的通胀转向稳定的通胀,我们的研究结果还表明,需要关注货币总量。我们的研究结果有助于解决长期以来关于货币总量对货币政策实施重要性的争议:货币总量对于从不稳定通胀转向稳定通胀至关重要,但一旦央行持续达到价格稳定,货币总量就失去了相关性。
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引用次数: 0
On Estimates of Insider Trading in Sports Betting 关于体育博彩内幕交易的估计
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12505
Karl Whelan

Several researchers have reported estimates of the fraction of money placed on sports betting by “insiders” with superior information to bookmakers. We show the method for estimating the fraction of insiders used in this research is only accurate under highly unrealistic conditions and that these estimates will tend to be positive in realistic cases where there are no insiders. We also argue that variations in these estimates are unlikely to be related to variations in the amount of inside information but rather are more likely due to other factors such as variations in bookmakers' costs or the extent of competition in betting markets.

几位研究人员报告了“内部人士”在体育博彩中投入的资金比例的估计,他们的信息比博彩公司更优越。我们表明,在本研究中使用的估计内部人员比例的方法仅在高度不现实的条件下是准确的,而这些估计在没有内部人员的现实情况下往往是积极的。我们还认为,这些估计的变化不太可能与内幕信息数量的变化有关,而更有可能是由于其他因素,如博彩公司成本的变化或博彩市场竞争程度的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Policy in a Third-Country Model With Kantian Optimization 基于康德最优化的第三国贸易政策模型
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12503
Leonard F. S. Wang, Di Wu, Can Yang

We address the issue of trade policies in a Kantian equilibrium. We find that “in principle” at Kantian equilibrium between the exporting countries, the trade policy is export tax. A Kantian equilibrium between the exporting countries leads to the lowest importing countries' consumer surplus, exporting firms' profits and global welfare, while the social welfare of the exporting countries is the highest. On the contrary, A Kantian equilibrium between the exporting firms leads to the highest importing countries' consumer surplus, exporting firms' profits and global welfare. The stability analysis demonstrates the robustness of our findings within an oligopoly comprising multiple exporters.

我们用康德式均衡来解决贸易政策问题。我们发现,在康德均衡下,出口国之间的“原则上”贸易政策是出口税。出口国之间的康德均衡导致进口国的消费者剩余、出口企业的利润和全球福利最低,而出口国的社会福利最高。相反,出口企业之间的康德均衡导致进口国的消费者剩余、出口企业的利润和全球福利最高。稳定性分析表明,在由多个出口商组成的寡头垄断中,我们的发现具有稳健性。
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引用次数: 0
Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A GVAR Approach 油价冲击与宏观经济波动:GVAR方法
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12502
Luccas Assis Attílio, André Varella Mollick

We investigate the effects of oil price shocks on industrial and emerging market economies. We use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with 19 economies from 1999M1 to 2022M3. Our sample evaluates output responses of each country to the same global shock, defined in several ways. While we find that domestic prices and interest rates in industrial economies respond to the WTI real oil price shock, the generalized impulse response functions (GIRF) tend to be not statistically significant in emerging economies. Stock markets increase in the first months for the oil producers but have negative values in the long-run. The oil price shock causes a generalized fall in industrial production and loses importance over time. We reinforce our results by identifying the oil shock using the structural GIRF (SGIRF) following a causal ordering from oil to real output. When we decompose WTI into either supply or demand shocks, industrial production declines in the short-run due to supply shocks but increases in response to oil demand shocks. Our results are very robust, especially in industrial economies when allowing for time-varying bilateral trade. Underscoring the importance of identifying oil price shocks, the oil price shock pushes inflation up, prompting the central bank's response in policy rates.

我们研究了石油价格冲击对工业和新兴市场经济体的影响。我们使用了一个全球向量自回归(GVAR)模型,该模型包含了19个经济体从1999M1到2022M3。我们的样本评估了每个国家对同一全球冲击的产出反应,这些冲击以几种方式定义。虽然我们发现工业经济体的国内价格和利率对WTI实际油价冲击有响应,但广义脉冲响应函数(GIRF)在新兴经济体中往往不具有统计显著性。石油生产国的股票市场在头几个月上涨,但从长期来看是负值。油价冲击导致工业生产普遍下降,并随着时间的推移而失去重要性。我们根据从石油到实际产量的因果顺序,使用结构GIRF (SGIRF)来识别石油冲击,从而加强了我们的结果。当我们将WTI分解为供应或需求冲击时,由于供应冲击,工业生产在短期内下降,但由于石油需求冲击而增加。我们的结果非常有力,特别是在考虑时变双边贸易的工业经济体中。油价冲击推高了通胀,促使央行在政策利率方面做出回应,这突显了识别油价冲击的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of wealth inequality on inflation and unfair competition among consumers 财富不平等对通货膨胀和消费者之间不公平竞争的影响
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12500
Esat Daşdemir

This study examines unfair competition among consumers according to wealth groups. The study hypothesizes that consumer groups with high income and wealth levels have a competitive advantage over consumer groups with low income and wealth levels, and therefore wealth inequality may create upward pressure on prices. Data from 37 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries covering 2000–2022 were used in the analysis. According to the results of the analysis, increases in the wealth of high-wealth groups increase the inflation rate more severely.

本研究考察了不同财富群体的消费者之间的不公平竞争。该研究假设,高收入和财富水平的消费者群体比低收入和财富水平的消费者群体具有竞争优势,因此财富不平等可能会对价格产生上行压力。该分析使用了37个经济合作与发展组织成员国2000年至2022年的数据。根据分析结果,高财富群体财富的增加对通货膨胀率的影响更为严重。
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引用次数: 0
Job satisfaction and workplace representation in Europe 欧洲的工作满意度和工作场所代表性
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12499
John T. Addison, Paulino Teixeira

The backdrop to this inquiry into the relationship between worker job satisfaction and workplace representation in European nations is twofold. The first is that the bulk of research has focused on union membership and job satisfaction in Anglophone nations with their very different industrial relations systems and bargaining arrangements. The second and more immediate context is the dramatic shift from negative to positive in the association between union membership and job satisfaction (inter al.) observed in the most recent literature. Using data on 28 European nations from the last two waves of the European Working Conditions Survey, however, we report that workers in establishments with formal workplace representation record lower job satisfaction than their counterparts in plants without such representation. These findings of conditional correlation are then upgraded by constructing a pseudo-panel with cohort fixed effects to take account of unobserved worker heterogeneity. First-difference estimates suggest that the negative relationship between worker representation and job satisfaction found in cross section continues to hold. Next, an endogenous treatment effects model is deployed to address the possible endogeneity of worker representation. The results are supportive of a causal negative relationship between job satisfaction and worker representation. One interpretation of our findings is that in the matter of the association between unions and job satisfaction the jury is still out.

对欧洲国家工人工作满意度与工作场所代表性之间关系的研究有两个背景。首先,大部分研究都集中于英语国家的工会会员资格和工作满意度,这些国家的劳资关系体系和谈判安排大相径庭。第二点也是更直接的背景是,在最新的文献中,工会会员资格与工作满意度之间的关系由负向正发生了巨大转变(inter al.)然而,我们利用最近两波欧洲工作条件调查(European Working Conditions Survey)中有关 28 个欧洲国家的数据,报告了在有正式工作场所代表的企业中,工人的工作满意度低于在没有正式工作场所代表的工厂中的工人。随后,我们通过构建一个具有同组固定效应的伪面板来考虑未观察到的工人异质性,从而提升了这些条件相关性的结论。一阶差分估计结果表明,横截面研究中发现的工人代表与工作满意度之间的负相关关系依然存在。接下来,我们采用内生处理效应模型来解决工人代表权可能存在的内生性问题。结果支持工作满意度与工人代表之间存在因果负相关关系。对我们研究结果的一种解释是,工会与工作满意度之间的关系还没有定论。
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引用次数: 0
Equilibrium vertical structure with a common supplier 有共同供应商的均衡垂直结构
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12498
Kangsik Choi, Sangheon Han, DongJoon Lee

We consider a vertically related market, in which each downstream firm produces a differentiated product by assembling a key input produced by a common supplier and another input produced by a dedicated upstream firm. On the one hand, vertical integration has the advantage of inducing the common supplier to set a lower input price, but the disadvantage of reducing downstream firms' competitiveness in the downstream market. On the other hand, vertical separation has the advantage of increasing downstream firms' competitiveness in the downstream market but the disadvantage of inducing the common supplier to set a higher input price. Contrary to results of previous studies, we find that the existence of a common supplier can lead to vertical integration under Cournot competition, which emerges as a unique equilibrium when a common supplier adopts input discrimination. Although vertical integration is better for the individual firms, it reduces the total welfare. Even when the common supplier uses uniform input pricing, vertical integration also emerges in equilibrium.

我们考虑了一个纵向关联市场,在这个市场中,每家下游企业都通过组装由共同供应商生产的一种关键投入品和由专门的上游企业生产的另一种投入品来生产差异化产品。一方面,纵向一体化的优点是促使共同供应商制定较低的投入品价格,但缺点是削弱了下游企业在下游市场的竞争力。另一方面,纵向分离的优点是提高下游企业在下游市场的竞争力,缺点是诱使共同供应商制定更高的投入价格。与以往的研究结果相反,我们发现共同供应商的存在会导致库诺竞争下的纵向一体化,而当共同供应商采取投入歧视时,纵向一体化会成为一种独特的均衡。虽然纵向一体化对单个企业更有利,但却降低了总福利。即使共同供应商采用统一的投入定价,纵向一体化也会出现均衡。
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引用次数: 0
Did 2004 EU expansion matter to new migrants' housing tenure and settlement choices in England? 2004 年欧盟扩张对新移民在英格兰的住房保有权和定居选择有影响吗?
IF 0.7 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1111/manc.12496
Sarah Jewell, Anupam Nanda, Olayiwola Oladiran

This paper analyses how migration policy changes affect the housing and location patterns of immigrants in the UK. Using the UK Longitudinal Household Survey, we examine the relationship between the 2004 EU accession as a migration policy change and housing and locational patterns. In addition to confirming the importance of migration policy frameworks, we find that liberalised migration can create a wave of immigrants with a lower propensity for homeownership and may cause the dispersion of new immigrants to locations away from the gateway cities and primary immigrant clusters such as London. The results are robust to several sensitivity tests.

本文分析了移民政策变化如何影响英国移民的住房和地点模式。通过英国纵向住户调查,我们研究了 2004 年加入欧盟这一移民政策变化与住房和地点模式之间的关系。除了证实移民政策框架的重要性外,我们还发现,自由化的移民政策可能会带来一波拥有住房倾向较低的移民潮,并可能导致新移民分散到远离门户城市和伦敦等主要移民集群的地区。这些结果在多个敏感性测试中都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
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Manchester School
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