Pub Date : 2025-08-14DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102017
R. Kalpana, Pradyumna Dash
This study investigates the effects of households’ inflation perceptions on their inflation expectations and the RBI’s conduct of monetary policy in India using the Granger causality test and a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We use quarterly data from Q3:2008 to Q1:2023. We find that households’ current inflation perceptions are significant determinants of inflation expectations. We also find that the current inflation perceptions are significant determinant of inflation expectations in the pre-, post-inflation targeting, and Covid-19 pandemic periods. Further, inflation perceptions are more important than actual inflation in influencing inflation expectations. Moreover, the RBI is more responsive to households' inflation perceptions than actual inflation in conducting monetary policy. However, inflation perceptions and expectations do not respond to changes in monetary policy. Our findings suggest that the RBI should communicate with households about actual inflation so that inflation perceptions become equal to actual inflation and inflation expectations are anchored.
{"title":"Households’ inflation perceptions, expectations, and the monetary policy in India","authors":"R. Kalpana, Pradyumna Dash","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effects of households’ inflation perceptions on their inflation expectations and the RBI’s conduct of monetary policy in India using the Granger causality test and a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We use quarterly data from Q3:2008 to Q1:2023. We find that households’ current inflation perceptions are significant determinants of inflation expectations. We also find that the current inflation perceptions are significant determinant of inflation expectations in the pre-, post-inflation targeting, and Covid-19 pandemic periods. Further, inflation perceptions are more important than actual inflation in influencing inflation expectations. Moreover, the RBI is more responsive to households' inflation perceptions than actual inflation in conducting monetary policy. However, inflation perceptions and expectations do not respond to changes in monetary policy. Our findings suggest that the RBI should communicate with households about actual inflation so that inflation perceptions become equal to actual inflation and inflation expectations are anchored.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102017"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-13DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102019
Aiyun Nie , Xiaobin Guo , Dawei Feng
This study uses data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to investigate the impact of robot applications on worker health. We find that robot applications significantly improves workers’ health, especially among men, those engaged in routine tasks, and workers in the manufacturing sector, and the results remain robust with a series of robustness checks. The mechanism analysis indicates that task reallocation and improvements in working conditions are potential channels through which robot applications can affect workers’ health. Specifically, robot applications can replace high-physical exertion and high-risk tasks, steering workers toward occupations and tasks with lower physical intensity and reduced injury risk. Additionally, this study contributes to improving working conditions by reducing working hours, lowering work intensity, improving the working environment, and enhancing workplace safety. We also find that the robot applications are effective in improving workers’ mental health. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the societal benefits of the current robot applications.
{"title":"Can robot applications safeguard workers’ health? Evidence from China","authors":"Aiyun Nie , Xiaobin Guo , Dawei Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study uses data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey to investigate the impact of robot applications on worker health. We find that robot applications significantly improves workers’ health, especially among men, those engaged in routine tasks, and workers in the manufacturing sector, and the results remain robust with a series of robustness checks. The mechanism analysis indicates that task reallocation and improvements in working conditions are potential channels through which robot applications can affect workers’ health. Specifically, robot applications can replace high-physical exertion and high-risk tasks, steering workers toward occupations and tasks with lower physical intensity and reduced injury risk. Additionally, this study contributes to improving working conditions by reducing working hours, lowering work intensity, improving the working environment, and enhancing workplace safety. We also find that the robot applications are effective in improving workers’ mental health. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the societal benefits of the current robot applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102019"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-13DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102022
Wanhai You , Jianyong Chen , Chien-Chiang Lee
Digital transformation has been a significant driver for economic growth. Typically high energy consuming enterprises face significant pressure to maintain high-quality development. This study investigates the influence of digitalization on high energy consuming enterprises’ total factor productivity. Results manifest that digitalization acts as a driver for total factor productivity. Nevertheless, the impact of digitalization on total factor productivity demonstrates significant heterogeneity contingent upon both internal enterprise characteristics and external environmental factors. From an enterprise’s internal perspective, the positive influence of enterprise digitalization on total factor productivity is particularly pronounced in high energy consuming enterprises characterized by state-owned and lower growth. From an external perspective, the impact of digitalization is more pronounced among enterprises located in regions with advanced digital infrastructure and in mid-western areas. Further, mediating effect analysis reveals that digitalization can boost total factor productivity by enhancing innovation investment and promoting management efficiency. These results still hold under a set of robustness checks. Based on these empirical findings, we derive targeted policy recommendations.
{"title":"Driving total factor productivity through digitalization? Evidence from high energy consuming enterprises in China","authors":"Wanhai You , Jianyong Chen , Chien-Chiang Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital transformation has been a significant driver for economic growth. Typically high energy consuming enterprises face significant pressure to maintain high-quality development. This study investigates the influence of digitalization on high energy consuming enterprises’ total factor productivity. Results manifest that digitalization acts as a driver for total factor productivity. Nevertheless, the impact of digitalization on total factor productivity demonstrates significant heterogeneity contingent upon both internal enterprise characteristics and external environmental factors. From an enterprise’s internal perspective, the positive influence of enterprise digitalization on total factor productivity is particularly pronounced in high energy consuming enterprises characterized by state-owned and lower growth. From an external perspective, the impact of digitalization is more pronounced among enterprises located in regions with advanced digital infrastructure and in mid-western areas. Further, mediating effect analysis reveals that digitalization can boost total factor productivity by enhancing innovation investment and promoting management efficiency. These results still hold under a set of robustness checks. Based on these empirical findings, we derive targeted policy recommendations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102022"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-13DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102023
Hai Jiang , Zhiyuan Ning , Zhitao Lin
This study investigates the relationship between environmental targets and corporate greenwashing from the perspective of local government behavior. The findings suggest that the setting of environmental targets by local governments actually promotes corporate greenwashing. The possible mechanisms include declines in substantive environmental performance and reductions in the quality of environmental disclosure. In addition, this facilitating effect is more pronounced for firms with poor financial status, low intensity of analyst coverage, lack of ISO14001 environmental certification, high pollution emissions and high environmental standards. Further analysis finds that local government economic growth and environmental governance competition, as well as the 2013 reform of the officials' appraisal system, reinforce the facilitating effect of environmental targets on corporate greenwashing. These findings not only provide a novel explanatory framework for understanding the motivations behind corporate greenwashing, but also provide valuable insights for strengthening governance against such behavior.
{"title":"Does local government environmental target affect firms' greenwashing? evidence from listed firms in China","authors":"Hai Jiang , Zhiyuan Ning , Zhitao Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the relationship between environmental targets and corporate greenwashing from the perspective of local government behavior. The findings suggest that the setting of environmental targets by local governments actually promotes corporate greenwashing. The possible mechanisms include declines in substantive environmental performance and reductions in the quality of environmental disclosure. In addition, this facilitating effect is more pronounced for firms with poor financial status, low intensity of analyst coverage, lack of ISO14001 environmental certification, high pollution emissions and high environmental standards. Further analysis finds that local government economic growth and environmental governance competition, as well as the 2013 reform of the officials' appraisal system, reinforce the facilitating effect of environmental targets on corporate greenwashing. These findings not only provide a novel explanatory framework for understanding the motivations behind corporate greenwashing, but also provide valuable insights for strengthening governance against such behavior.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102023"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144853000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102021
Shi-jie Jiang , Lehang Zeng , Xinyu Rui
Given the adverse impact of the prolonged low-interest rate environment on the long-term business of Chinese life insurers, this study focuses on Universal Life (UL) insurance, a representative product in the sector, to examine the determinants of credited interest rates. It emphasizes the interplay between insurers’ strategic behavior, financial constraints, and market interest rate dynamics. Leveraging monthly data from 38 Chinese life insurers from January 2015 to December 2021. The empirical investigation is carried out in the context of the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator and panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) model, with proper consideration of the potential presence of cross-section dependence and structural breaks. Our findings indicate that the investment-type premium ratio (ITPR), financial leverage (LEV), and reinsurance cession ratio (REINSUR) of insurance companies have a long-term negative effect on the credited interest rate, whereas the 1-year Treasury bond yield (TBY) has a long-term positive influence on it. Additionally, the short-term adjustments in UL rates are primarily driven by TBY fluctuations. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test further identifies bidirectional feedback between ITPR and UL, highlighting insurers’ strategic trade-offs between market expansion and financial stability. The results underscore that excessive reliance on investment-driven liability strategies exacerbates long-term solvency risks. This study contributes to the literature by integrating insurers’ operational imperatives into UL pricing frameworks, offering insights for policymakers to balance market growth with systemic stability in China’s rapidly evolving insurance sector.
{"title":"Drivers of the credited interest rate on universal life insurance: Evidence from the Chinese insurance sector","authors":"Shi-jie Jiang , Lehang Zeng , Xinyu Rui","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the adverse impact of the prolonged low-interest rate environment on the long-term business of Chinese life insurers, this study focuses on Universal Life (UL) insurance, a representative product in the sector, to examine the determinants of credited interest rates. It emphasizes the interplay between insurers’ strategic behavior, financial constraints, and market interest rate dynamics. Leveraging monthly data from 38 Chinese life insurers from January 2015 to December 2021. The empirical investigation is carried out in the context of the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator and panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) model, with proper consideration of the potential presence of cross-section dependence and structural breaks. Our findings indicate that the investment-type premium ratio (ITPR), financial leverage (LEV), and reinsurance cession ratio (REINSUR) of insurance companies have a long-term negative effect on the credited interest rate, whereas the 1-year Treasury bond yield (TBY) has a long-term positive influence on it. Additionally, the short-term adjustments in UL rates are primarily driven by TBY fluctuations. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test further identifies bidirectional feedback between ITPR and UL, highlighting insurers’ strategic trade-offs between market expansion and financial stability. The results underscore that excessive reliance on investment-driven liability strategies exacerbates long-term solvency risks. This study contributes to the literature by integrating insurers’ operational imperatives into UL pricing frameworks, offering insights for policymakers to balance market growth with systemic stability in China’s rapidly evolving insurance sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102021"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144866021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-09DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102015
Junpeng Di , Wanhe Li , Mingyuan Zhang
China has steadily increased minimum wage standards and enforcement, and scholars have widely demonstrated that higher minimum wages raise enterprise labor costs and significantly affect employment. However, research has largely overlooked social insurance contributions, which are an equally substantial cost burden for Chinese firms. This study examines both policies simultaneously, developing a theoretical framework to analyze how minimum wage and social insurance policies jointly influence labor market outcomes, and using National Tax Survey data from 2007 to 2016 combined with comprehensive regional minimum wage data. Our empirical findings reveal that minimum wage increases significantly reduce enterprise employment when social insurance costs are held constant, but social insurance policy adjustments can offset these negative employment effects when both policies are implemented simultaneously. These effects vary across enterprise ownership types, industries, and regions. The results suggest that policymakers should coordinate minimum wage and social insurance instruments rather than implementing them in isolation as a pathway to protect workers’ living standards while minimizing adverse effects on enterprise employment and competitiveness.
{"title":"Impact of corporate employment: Minimum wage or social insurance policy? Evidence from China","authors":"Junpeng Di , Wanhe Li , Mingyuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has steadily increased minimum wage standards and enforcement, and scholars have widely demonstrated that higher minimum wages raise enterprise labor costs and significantly affect employment. However, research has largely overlooked social insurance contributions, which are an equally substantial cost burden for Chinese firms. This study examines both policies simultaneously, developing a theoretical framework to analyze how minimum wage and social insurance policies jointly influence labor market outcomes, and using National Tax Survey data from 2007 to 2016 combined with comprehensive regional minimum wage data. Our empirical findings reveal that minimum wage increases significantly reduce enterprise employment when social insurance costs are held constant, but social insurance policy adjustments can offset these negative employment effects when both policies are implemented simultaneously. These effects vary across enterprise ownership types, industries, and regions. The results suggest that policymakers should coordinate minimum wage and social insurance instruments rather than implementing them in isolation as a pathway to protect workers’ living standards while minimizing adverse effects on enterprise employment and competitiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102015"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-09DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102016
Ting Meng , Yuqi Yang , E. Xie , Yuxiang Xie
Using data of World Bank China-Enterprise Survey, this paper constructs a comprehensive index of firm-level digitization based on indicators such as email adoption, website presence, the percentage of the workforce using computers, and the extent to which ICT (computers, the Internet and software) is used to support partner relations to reveal the potential impact of digitization on labor productivity and labor share. The results of eliminating endogeneity show that: the use of digital technology has significantly improved labor productivity and reduced the labor income share. For every one-unit increase in digitalization, labor productivity increases by approximately 18.03 %, while labor income share decreases by 10.94 %. The mechanism analysis shows that the positive relationship between digital adoption and labor productivity per capita is not based on a shrinking denominator, and that digitization promotes employment rather than displacing labor; digitization brings about wage increases while promoting a greater increase in labor productivity, which ultimately leads to a decrease in the labor income share; digitization, by polarizing low-skilled workers, such as temporary workers and seasonal workers, has contributed to the higher productivity of enterprises while making the wages of low-skilled workers decrease, which ultimately leads to a decrease in the labor income share. The increase in labor productivity due to digitization is more pronounced in firms without state ownership and firms in the East, and the negative effect of digitization on the labor income share is stronger in firms without state ownership than in firms with state ownership; the impact of digitization on labor productivity partly channels through a reduction in the labor share, however, this indirect effect appears quite small.
{"title":"The dual effects of digitization: An enterprise perspective","authors":"Ting Meng , Yuqi Yang , E. Xie , Yuxiang Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data of World Bank China-Enterprise Survey, this paper constructs a comprehensive index of firm-level digitization based on indicators such as email adoption, website presence, the percentage of the workforce using computers, and the extent to which ICT (computers, the Internet and software) is used to support partner relations to reveal the potential impact of digitization on labor productivity and labor share. The results of eliminating endogeneity show that: the use of digital technology has significantly improved labor productivity and reduced the labor income share. For every one-unit increase in digitalization, labor productivity increases by approximately 18.03 %, while labor income share decreases by 10.94 %. The mechanism analysis shows that the positive relationship between digital adoption and labor productivity per capita is not based on a shrinking denominator, and that digitization promotes employment rather than displacing labor; digitization brings about wage increases while promoting a greater increase in labor productivity, which ultimately leads to a decrease in the labor income share; digitization, by polarizing low-skilled workers, such as temporary workers and seasonal workers, has contributed to the higher productivity of enterprises while making the wages of low-skilled workers decrease, which ultimately leads to a decrease in the labor income share. The increase in labor productivity due to digitization is more pronounced in firms without state ownership and firms in the East, and the negative effect of digitization on the labor income share is stronger in firms without state ownership than in firms with state ownership; the impact of digitization on labor productivity partly channels through a reduction in the labor share, however, this indirect effect appears quite small.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102016"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144866022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-08DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102010
Qilin Mao , Buchao Shi
This study explores the effect of robot exposure on the choice of export modes. While industrial robots have been emphasized sufficiently for their important role in economic performance and labor markets, their influence on export modes has been little studied. Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese firms from 2006 to 2013, our results demonstrate that an increase in robot exposure significantly leads to the transformation of export modes towards ordinary exports. This improvement is mainly driven by the alleviation of financing constraints, the enhancement of productivity, and the improvement of market power. Notably, the productivity effect of robots exists only when the firm possesses a high level of human capital. We also discover that the effect is more pronounced for digital firms, firms in industries with fiercer competition, and firms in provinces with stronger intellectual property protection. Furthermore, the robot exposure promotes firms’ export quality by facilitating a shift from processing exports to ordinary exports and from processing with assembly to processing with imported inputs. This article provides valuable insights into the driving forces behind the development of high-quality trade from the perspective of automation technology.
{"title":"Ordinary exports or processing exports? The role of industrial robots on the choice of export modes","authors":"Qilin Mao , Buchao Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the effect of robot exposure on the choice of export modes. While industrial robots have been emphasized sufficiently for their important role in economic performance and labor markets, their influence on export modes has been little studied. Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese firms from 2006 to 2013, our results demonstrate that an increase in robot exposure significantly leads to the transformation of export modes towards ordinary exports. This improvement is mainly driven by the alleviation of financing constraints, the enhancement of productivity, and the improvement of market power. Notably, the productivity effect of robots exists only when the firm possesses a high level of human capital. We also discover that the effect is more pronounced for digital firms, firms in industries with fiercer competition, and firms in provinces with stronger intellectual property protection. Furthermore, the robot exposure promotes firms’ export quality by facilitating a shift from processing exports to ordinary exports and from processing with assembly to processing with imported inputs. This article provides valuable insights into the driving forces behind the development of high-quality trade from the perspective of automation technology.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102010"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144842277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-07DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102013
Xuejun Wang, Zhi Cao, Liang Xu
As the world’s highest-standard free trade agreement, the CPTPP has made significant breakthroughs in agricultural trade liberalization, setting a new benchmark for regional agricultural cooperation. China is actively considering joining the CPTPP to promote higher-level agricultural opening-up. This paper analyzes the impact pathways of agricultural trade barrier reductions on the agricultural sector, incorporating both tariff and non-tariff barrier factors into a structural model to examine these effects. In light of this, the paper employs a counterfactual analysis method using 2018 multi-country agricultural sector data, segmented by product. Additionally, it examines the welfare effects and structural decomposition of trade barrier reductions in the CPTPP agricultural sector, while also exploring the potential economic impacts of response strategies China might adopt. The simulation results show that the CPTPP mainly affects the welfare levels of agricultural sectors in various countries through trade volume effects, rather than terms of trade effects. The welfare levels of agricultural sectors in member countries improve due to increased regional trade volumes. In contrast, welfare levels in non-member countries decline because of trade diversion effects, with China experiencing relatively minor negative impacts. Further analysis shows that China’s accession to the CPTPP can enhance the welfare of its agricultural sector and strengthen trade links with other members, significantly boosting their welfare levels. By promoting higher levels of opening-up through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, RCEP, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and the BRICS alliance, China can largely offset the potential negative impacts of not joining the CPTPP.
{"title":"Economic impact of agricultural trade liberalization under the CPTPP and China’s policy response","authors":"Xuejun Wang, Zhi Cao, Liang Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the world’s highest-standard free trade agreement, the CPTPP has made significant breakthroughs in agricultural trade liberalization, setting a new benchmark for regional agricultural cooperation. China is actively considering joining the CPTPP to promote higher-level agricultural opening-up. This paper analyzes the impact pathways of agricultural trade barrier reductions on the agricultural sector, incorporating both tariff and non-tariff barrier factors into a structural model to examine these effects. In light of this, the paper employs a counterfactual analysis method using 2018 multi-country agricultural sector data, segmented by product. Additionally, it examines the welfare effects and structural decomposition of trade barrier reductions in the CPTPP agricultural sector, while also exploring the potential economic impacts of response strategies China might adopt. The simulation results show that the CPTPP mainly affects the welfare levels of agricultural sectors in various countries through trade volume effects, rather than terms of trade effects. The welfare levels of agricultural sectors in member countries improve due to increased regional trade volumes. In contrast, welfare levels in non-member countries decline because of trade diversion effects, with China experiencing relatively minor negative impacts. Further analysis shows that China’s accession to the CPTPP can enhance the welfare of its agricultural sector and strengthen trade links with other members, significantly boosting their welfare levels. By promoting higher levels of opening-up through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, RCEP, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, and the BRICS alliance, China can largely offset the potential negative impacts of not joining the CPTPP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102013"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144829764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-07DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102014
Yan Cai , Yanyun Li , Faqin Lin , Wenshou Yan
A noteworthy characteristic of agricultural tariffs in this century is their association with an extremely high level of trade policy uncertainty (TPU). This aspect serves as an innovative avenue for investigating the volatility of world agricultural prices. The theoretical framework employs a general equilibrium model to illustrate the impact of TPU on the volatility of international agricultural prices. To address endogeneity concerns, a production shock is introduced as an instrument variable, utilizing a comprehensive panel dataset covering 18 disaggregated agricultural products across 61 countries. The empirical findings indicate that TPU exacerbates the volatility of international agricultural prices. Specifically, a 1-standard deviation increase in TPU results in a minimum 31 % increase in the volatility of international agricultural prices. Heterogeneous analysis reveals that this effect is more pronounced for developed countries and is particularly significant during periods of upward spikes in world prices. The mechanism involves TPU affecting world price volatility by motivating exporters to set higher prices (direct effect). In addition, TPU triggers further adjustments in agricultural tariffs, thereby amplifying the volatility of international agricultural price (indirect effect). Intriguingly, the findings indicate that the indirect effect contributes to more than half (70.28 %) of the total effect.
{"title":"The direct and indirect effects of trade policy uncertainty on the volatility of world agricultural prices","authors":"Yan Cai , Yanyun Li , Faqin Lin , Wenshou Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A noteworthy characteristic of agricultural tariffs in this century is their association with an extremely high level of trade policy uncertainty (TPU). This aspect serves as an innovative avenue for investigating the volatility of world agricultural prices. The theoretical framework employs a general equilibrium model to illustrate the impact of TPU on the volatility of international agricultural prices. To address endogeneity concerns, a production shock is introduced as an instrument variable, utilizing a comprehensive panel dataset covering 18 disaggregated agricultural products across 61 countries. The empirical findings indicate that TPU exacerbates the volatility of international agricultural prices. Specifically, a 1-standard deviation increase in TPU results in a minimum 31 % increase in the volatility of international agricultural prices. Heterogeneous analysis reveals that this effect is more pronounced for developed countries and is particularly significant during periods of upward spikes in world prices. The mechanism involves TPU affecting world price volatility by motivating exporters to set higher prices (direct effect). In addition, TPU triggers further adjustments in agricultural tariffs, thereby amplifying the volatility of international agricultural price (indirect effect). Intriguingly, the findings indicate that the indirect effect contributes to more than half (70.28 %) of the total effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 102014"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144810373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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