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R&D activity, employment and employment composition: Evidence from India 研发活动、就业和就业构成:来自印度的证据
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102018
Cangfeng Wang, Tian Wang
This paper examines the employment effects of R&D activity using firm-level data from two India surveys collected by the World Bank. To tackle the potential endogeneity, we use the innovation-reason indicator as the instrumental variable for R&D activity. Both OLS and IV estimates show three findings. First, consistent with the literature, R&D activity has significantly positive effect on employment of permanent workers. Second, different from the literature, R&D activity has no significant effect on the share of nonproduction workers in permanent employment. However, firms with R&D activity hire relatively more skilled production workers in permanent production employment than those without. Third, firms with R&D activity hire relatively less temporary workers than those without. The last two novel findings provide evidence of skill-biased technological change for populous less-developed countries like India.
本文利用世界银行收集的两次印度调查的公司层面数据,考察了研发活动对就业的影响。为了解决潜在的内生性问题,我们使用创新原因指标作为研发活动的工具变量。OLS和IV估计数显示了三个结果。首先,与文献一致,研发活动对长期工人的就业有显著的正向影响。第二,与文献不同的是,研发活动对非生产工人占永久就业的比例没有显著影响。然而,有研发活动的企业在永久性生产岗位上雇佣的熟练生产工人比没有研发活动的企业要多。第三,有研发活动的公司雇佣的临时工相对较少。最后两项新发现为印度等人口众多的欠发达国家的技术变革提供了技能偏向的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting monetary policy transmission in a new inflation targeting country 重新审视新通胀目标制国家的货币政策传导
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102026
Bhavesh Garg , Sayar Ahmad Shah , Janaka Edirisinghe
We investigate the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Sri Lanka, which is gradually transitioning towards a flexible inflation targeting framework and has adopted this approach on a de facto basis. Using monthly data from 2020 to 2023, the findings highlight the interest rate channel as playing a more significant role than the exchange rate channel in transmitting the policy interventions to the final output. Key results suggest that under a strict inflation targeting regime, monetary transmission is more potent compared to a flexible inflation targeting framework. Therefore, to enhance monetary policy effectiveness, Sri Lanka should focus on the robust implementation of an inflation-targeting regime.
我们调查了斯里兰卡的货币政策传导机制,该国正逐步向灵活的通胀目标框架过渡,并在事实上采用了这种方法。利用2020年至2023年的月度数据,研究结果表明,在将政策干预传递给最终产出方面,利率渠道比汇率渠道发挥更重要的作用。关键结果表明,在严格的通胀目制制下,货币传导比灵活的通胀目制制框架更有效。因此,为了提高货币政策的有效性,斯里兰卡应将重点放在强有力地实施通胀目标制上。
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引用次数: 0
Who benefits from government-conducted vocational training? Evidence from employment of rural-to-urban migrant workers in China 谁从政府的职业培训中受益?来自中国农民工就业的证据
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102031
Lilian Li , Yuansong Zhang , Juntao Ye , Mingwang Cheng
This study investigates how government-conducted vocational training (GVT) shapes employment outcomes for rural-to-urban migrant workers in China through human and social capital frameworks. Using nationally representative survey data, we demonstrate that GVT participation raises workers' employment rate by 4.6 % and improves employment quality by 3.674, confirming expanded-capacity and enhanced-quality effects. Mechanistic evidence shows these impacts operate through strengthened vocational skills and expanded social networks. Moreover, GVT disproportionately benefits low-educated workers, further narrowing their employment gap relative to high-educated groups. This differential effectiveness positions GVT as a backstop protection mechanism in labor market stratification. Our findings underscore the necessity of developing precision training systems with modular skill certifications and network-building components. Policy designs should prioritize adaptable curricula for low-educated cohorts to maximize GVT's equalizing potential during China's economic transition.
本研究通过人力资本和社会资本框架探讨了政府开展的职业培训(GVT)如何影响中国农民工的就业结果。利用具有全国代表性的调查数据,我们证明了GVT参与使工人就业率提高了4.6% %,使就业质量提高了3.674 %,证实了产能扩张和质量提升效应。机械证据表明,这些影响通过加强职业技能和扩大社会网络来发挥作用。此外,GVT不成比例地惠及受教育程度低的工人,进一步缩小了他们相对于受教育程度高的群体的就业差距。这种差异的有效性定位GVT作为劳动力市场分层的后盾保护机制。我们的研究结果强调了开发具有模块化技能认证和网络构建组件的精确培训系统的必要性。政策设计应优先考虑低学历人群的适应性课程,以最大限度地发挥中国经济转型期间GVT的均衡潜力。
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引用次数: 0
International migration and trade: A comparative analysis of China and India 国际移民与贸易:中国与印度的比较分析
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102028
Vadakke Cholakkakath Sabeer
This paper re-examines the trade impact of emigrants from China and India, two of the largest countries in both global trade and emigration, by addressing methodological limitations in the existing literature and expanding the analysis through disaggregation by product categories and destination types. Using a structural gravity model estimated via Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), the study analyses both exports and imports, disaggregated by stages of processing. It draws on bilateral trade data from CEPII and WITS and migrant stock data from the United Nations (1990–2020). Contrary to prior studies, the results do not support a pro-export effect of emigrants from either country at the aggregate level, suggesting earlier findings may reflect methodological biases. However, Indian emigrants are positively associated with exports of consumer and capital goods, while Chinese emigrants show no significant effects across categories. Disaggregation by destination reveals that emigrants in developed countries are more strongly linked to trade-substituting dynamics, potentially reflecting roles in production relocation or import substitution. In contrast, Indian emigrants in developing destinations appear more pro-trade, operating through preference and information channels that ease access to foreign markets and technologies. The null aggregate effects underscore the importance of methodological rigor and suggest a need for targeted policy efforts to harness emigrant networks more effectively. Disaggregated evidence offers more nuanced insights to guide such strategies.
本文重新审视了来自中国和印度的移民对贸易的影响,这两个国家是全球贸易和移民中最大的两个国家,通过解决现有文献中的方法局限性,并通过产品类别和目的地类型的分解来扩展分析。利用泊松伪极大似然(PPML)估计的结构重力模型,研究分析了出口和进口,按加工阶段分类。它借鉴了CEPII和WITS的双边贸易数据以及联合国的移民存量数据(1990-2020年)。与先前的研究相反,结果并不支持两国移民在总体水平上的出口效应,这表明早期的研究结果可能反映了方法上的偏差。然而,印度移民与消费品和资本品出口呈正相关,而中国移民在各类别中没有显着影响。按目的地分列表明,发达国家的移民与贸易替代动态联系更紧密,可能反映出在生产转移或进口替代方面的作用。相比之下,发展中国家的印度移民似乎更支持贸易,他们通过优惠政策和信息渠道开展业务,方便他们进入外国市场和获得外国技术。零总量效应强调了方法严谨性的重要性,并表明需要有针对性的政策努力,以更有效地利用移民网络。分类证据为指导此类策略提供了更细致入微的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Regional disparity, cultural difference and family migration of rural migrant workers 地域差异、文化差异与农民工家庭迁移
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102030
Runze Gong , Weixing Wu , Lina Zhang
We investigate the impact of economic disparity and cultural difference between destination and origin areas on the family migration of rural migrant workers. Based on the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) data, our paper finds that economic disparity and cultural difference between the two regions have positive and negative impacts on the family migration of rural migrant workers, respectively. Specifically, economic disparity enhances the income and settlement intentions of rural migrant workers, whereas cultural difference reduces them. Our evidence suggests that the positive effect of the economic disparity on family-based migration is weaker in destinations with high hukou barriers and high housing prices. Conversely, the negative association between cultural difference and family migration of rural migrant workers is substantially weaker for migrants with greater social engagement and human capital.
研究目的地和原籍地的经济差异和文化差异对农民工家庭迁移的影响。基于2017年中国流动人口动态调查(CMDS)数据,本文发现经济差异和文化差异分别对农民工家庭迁移产生积极和消极影响。具体而言,经济差异提高了农民工的收入和定居意愿,而文化差异则降低了农民工的收入和定居意愿。我们的证据表明,在高户口壁垒和高房价的目的地,经济差异对家庭移民的积极影响较弱。相反,对于社会参与度和人力资本水平较高的农民工,文化差异与家庭迁移之间的负相关关系要弱得多。
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引用次数: 0
Learning to be an entrepreneur in cities 在城市里学习创业
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102029
Dongxia Wei
Migrants may acquire non-cognitive skills during their early life in cities, which are crucial for entrepreneurship. Using individual-level data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, we demonstrate that migrants arrive in cities at a younger age are more likely to engage in entrepreneurial activities and subsequently gain higher income. This effect is robust across groups with various education, Hukou types, genders, and industrial sectors, and more pronounced in cities with higher administrative ranks, a larger number of enterprises, and higher settlement threshold, or among migrants entering different dialect areas. The mechanism analysis shows that it is driven by improving migrants’ non-cognitive abilities through city life experience at a younger age, including social activity, social integration, open-mindedness, and development motive.
农民工可能在城市的早期生活中获得非认知技能,这对创业至关重要。利用《2017年中国流动人口动态调查》中的个人层面数据,我们证明了移民在更年轻的时候到达城市,更有可能从事创业活动,从而获得更高的收入。这种效应在不同学历、户口类型、性别和行业的人群中都很明显,在行政级别较高、企业数量较多、落户门槛较高的城市,或在进入不同方言地区的流动人口中更为明显。机制分析表明,流动人口非认知能力的提升主要是通过较年轻时期的城市生活体验来实现的,包括社会活动、社会融入、思想开放和发展动机。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on cash holdings of listed companies in China 宏观经济波动对中国上市公司现金持有量的影响
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102027
Chuanzhi Ye
Changes in the global economic situation since 2020 have exacerbated the volatility of China's macroeconomic growth from 2020 to 2023, providing conditions for empirical research on corporate finance using natural experiments. This paper selects the period from 2018 to 2023 as the research period. Based on the sensitivity of industries to macroeconomic fluctuations, 2327 sample companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during this period are divided into defensive industries and cyclical industries. This paper empirically studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the cash holdings of listed companies in defensive and cyclical industries. The research results show that the cash holdings of defensive industries remain stable during the entire macroeconomic fluctuation period, while cyclical industries significantly increase their cash holdings compared to economically stable periods. The trade-off theory and the precautionary motive for cash can well explain the cash holdings of listed companies in defensive and cyclical industries during economic fluctuations.
2020年以来全球经济形势的变化加剧了2020 - 2023年中国宏观经济增长的波动性,为利用自然实验对企业融资进行实证研究提供了条件。本文选取2018 - 2023年作为研究期。基于行业对宏观经济波动的敏感性,将2327家样本沪深交易所同期上市公司分为防御性行业和周期性行业。本文实证研究了宏观经济波动对防御性和周期性行业上市公司现金持有量的影响。研究结果表明,在整个宏观经济波动时期,防御性行业的现金持有量保持稳定,而周期性行业的现金持有量较经济稳定时期显著增加。权衡理论和现金的预防性动机可以很好地解释经济波动时防御性和周期性行业上市公司的现金持有量。
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引用次数: 0
The internet and poverty alleviation in Indonesia: Urban-rural disparities in a dual economy 互联网与印尼的扶贫:二元经济中的城乡差距
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102024
Kazuhiko Yokota , Yui Komaki , Ayano Komori , Saki Nagasawa , Satoshi Okuaki
This study investigates the relationship between internet usage and poverty rates in Indonesia by presenting a Two-Sector, Two-Region model, where both urban and rural areas have industrial and agricultural sectors. Using panel data from 2009 to 2022, we classified Indonesia’s 32 provinces as urban or rural areas to analyze whether increased internet usage impacts poverty alleviation differently between these regions. Poverty alleviation in Indonesia was directly correlated with rising internet usage. However, this alleviation is situated primarily in urban areas. This finding aligns closely with the predictions of our model. Internet penetration is near saturation in urban areas, where the industrial sector dominates, limiting its overall effect. Conversely, in rural areas, where the agricultural sector is more prevalent and there remains significant capacity for Internet penetration, increased Internet usage is expected to impact poverty reduction substantially. These results suggest that, particularly in provinces with low urbanization rates, the expansion of Internet infrastructure can serve as an effective tool for poverty alleviation policies.
本研究通过提出城市和农村都有工业和农业部门的两部门、两地区模型,调查了印度尼西亚互联网使用与贫困率之间的关系。利用2009年至2022年的面板数据,我们将印度尼西亚的32个省划分为城市或农村地区,以分析增加互联网使用对这些地区的扶贫影响是否不同。印尼的扶贫与互联网使用率的提高直接相关。不过,这种减轻主要发生在城市地区。这一发现与我们的模型预测非常吻合。在工业部门占主导地位的城市地区,互联网普及率接近饱和,限制了其整体影响。相反,在农村地区,农业部门更为普遍,互联网普及率仍然很高,预计互联网使用的增加将对减贫产生重大影响。这些结果表明,特别是在城市化率较低的省份,扩大互联网基础设施可以作为扶贫政策的有效工具。
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引用次数: 0
Reforming external debt governance in Turkey to reach external debt sustainability 改革土耳其的外债治理,以实现外债的可持续性
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102020
Aslı Togan , Sübidey Togan
The paper argues that the attainment and maintenance of external debt sustainability is challenging, and that it is not a choice. A country whose government fails to respect external debt sustainability would eventually default on its external debt. But in the case of default the penalty is the inability to borrow in international markets, and hence the cost of defaulting could be extremely high. The paper emphasizes the importance of having a functioning external debt governance system that will reduce the probability of explosive debt trajectories over time requiring solutions to the following three issues. First, in policy circles minds should be clear about the importance of achieving sustainability of external debt. Second, policy makers have to agree on the way to attain external debt sustainability. Based on empirical analysis, the paper recommends implementing legal reforms, reducing inflation, and devaluing when necessary the real exchange rate. Finally, the country needs to find a way to translate the concept of external debt sustainability into policy technicality. In particular, such a translation requires the development of an institution that when established will enable the country to avoid facing external debt problems over time. The paper proposes the creation of an independent public advisory body, the External Debt Council, equipped with adequate resources to ensure sustainable debt management, and building and sustaining social consensus in the society on the achievement of external debt sustainability that will bind not only the officials in the present government but also the officials in future governments.
本文认为,实现和维持外债可持续性是具有挑战性的,这不是一种选择。一个政府不尊重外债可持续性的国家,最终将出现外债违约。但在违约的情况下,惩罚是无法在国际市场上借款,因此违约的成本可能非常高。本文强调了建立一个有效的外债治理体系的重要性,该体系将减少随着时间的推移出现爆炸性债务轨迹的可能性,需要解决以下三个问题。首先,政策圈应该清楚地认识到实现外债可持续性的重要性。其次,政策制定者必须就实现外债可持续性的方式达成一致。在实证分析的基础上,本文建议实施法律改革,减少通货膨胀,并在必要时使实际汇率贬值。最后,该国需要找到一种方法,将外债可持续性的概念转化为政策的技术性。特别是,这种转变需要发展一种机构,该机构一旦建立,将使该国能够避免长期面临外债问题。本文建议建立一个独立的公共咨询机构,即外债委员会,配备足够的资源来确保可持续的债务管理,并在社会上建立和维持对实现外债可持续性的社会共识,这不仅将约束现任政府的官员,也将约束未来政府的官员。
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引用次数: 0
The role of Confucianism in audit firms in mitigating corporate financial restatements 儒家思想在审计事务所减轻公司财务重述中的作用
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102025
Yuanling Li , Xuetong Hu , Xudong Liu , Zhongliang Dai , Zhongyi Xiao
This study explores the relationship between the integration of Confucian ethical norms into audit firm culture and the incidence of corporate financial restatements. By proposing two competing theoretical frameworks, we analyze the differing impacts of the five core Confucian virtues on the probability of restatements. Using panel data from Chinese listed companies between 2009 and 2021, we find a significant negative correlation between the Confucian ethical values of audit firms and the frequency of financial restatements by their clients. After addressing endogeneity issues through an instrumental variable approach and conducting sensitivity analysis with alternative variable specifications, this relationship remains robust. Mechanism analysis reveals that Confucian philosophy effectively mitigates financial restatement behavior in audit firms through three key channels: corporate transparency, audit quality, and organizational resilience.
本研究探讨儒家伦理规范融入审计事务所文化与企业财务重述发生率之间的关系。通过提出两个相互竞争的理论框架,我们分析了儒家五种核心美德对重述概率的不同影响。利用2009年至2021年中国上市公司的面板数据,我们发现审计事务所的儒家伦理价值观与其客户财务重述频率之间存在显著的负相关关系。在通过工具变量方法解决内生性问题并使用替代变量规格进行敏感性分析后,这种关系仍然是稳健的。机制分析表明,儒家哲学通过公司透明度、审计质量和组织弹性三个关键渠道有效缓解了审计事务所的财务重述行为。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Asian Economics
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