Pub Date : 2025-10-15DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102061
Tomoo Kikuchi , Satoshi Tobe
We investigate the elasticity of portfolio investment of ASEAN and OECD members to geographical distance in a gravity model utilizing a bilateral panel of 86 reporting and 241 counterparty countries/territories for 2007–2017. We find that the elasticity is more negative for ASEAN than OECD members. The difference is even larger if we exclude Singapore. This indicates that Singapore’s behavior is distinct from other ASEAN members. While Singapore tends to invest in distant OECD countries, other ASEAN members tend to invest in nearby countries. Our study sheds light on the role of a regional financial center in global finance.
{"title":"Singapore’s role for ASEAN’s portfolio investment","authors":"Tomoo Kikuchi , Satoshi Tobe","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102061","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102061","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the elasticity of portfolio investment of ASEAN and OECD members to geographical distance in a gravity model utilizing a bilateral panel of 86 reporting and 241 counterparty countries/territories for 2007–2017. We find that the elasticity is more negative for ASEAN than OECD members. The difference is even larger if we exclude Singapore. This indicates that Singapore’s behavior is distinct from other ASEAN members. While Singapore tends to invest in distant OECD countries, other ASEAN members tend to invest in nearby countries. Our study sheds light on the role of a regional financial center in global finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102061"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-09DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102056
Huanhuan Guo , Tomomi Miyazaki
We examine the international spillover effects of China’s fiscal policy. A global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model is used for this purpose. First, we demonstrate robustly that China’s government spending stimulates domestic private consumption. Second, we show that achieving a primary budget surplus by the Chinese government stimulates the output of several regions in the world. These results imply that while government spending in China is a useful stimulus measure from a domestic perspective, fiscal rectitude in China during normal times can be justified in the long run from an international perspective.
{"title":"Estimating the international spillover effects of China’s fiscal policy: A global VAR analysis","authors":"Huanhuan Guo , Tomomi Miyazaki","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the international spillover effects of China’s fiscal policy. A global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model is used for this purpose. First, we demonstrate robustly that China’s government spending stimulates domestic private consumption. Second, we show that achieving a primary budget surplus by the Chinese government stimulates the output of several regions in the world. These results imply that while government spending in China is a useful stimulus measure from a domestic perspective, fiscal rectitude in China during normal times can be justified in the long run from an international perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102056"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-07DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102059
Anning Hu , Zhipeng Zhou
This study extensively elucidates the methodological advantages inherent in a copula-based framework for researching intergenerational income mobility: (1) By delving into copula density, one can shift the focus from a single summary index (such as the rank-rank slope or intergenerational income elasticity) to more nuanced mobility patterns that exhibit less sensitivity to marginal income distribution specifications. (2) With consistent marginal cumulative distributions, the framework enables the examination of changes in bivariate intergenerational income dependence, or morphology. This is achieved by assessing variations in copula density before and after accounting for relevant covariates, with the Cramér–von Mises statistic providing a user-friendly test for the statistical significance of these variations. (3) The copula-based framework, through the construction of different cross profiles on the copula density surface, accommodates research objectives related to both relative and absolute income mobility. To exemplify the application of this framework, we investigate intergenerational income mobility between 1978 and 2017 using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79).
本研究广泛阐明了基于copula的代际收入流动研究框架所固有的方法论优势：(1)通过深入研究copula密度，人们可以将重点从单一的汇总指数（如等级斜率或代际收入弹性）转移到对边际收入分配规范不太敏感的更细致的流动性模式上。(2)在边际累积分布一致的情况下，该框架能够检验双变量代际收入依赖或形态的变化。这是通过在考虑相关协变量之前和之后评估联结密度的变化来实现的，cram - von Mises统计为这些变化的统计显著性提供了一个用户友好的测试。(3)基于copula的框架通过在copula密度面上构建不同的交叉剖面，可以同时满足相对和绝对收入流动性的研究目标。为了举例说明这一框架的应用，我们使用1979年全国青年纵向调查（NLSY79）调查了1978年至2017年的代际收入流动性。
{"title":"A copula-based framework for studying intergenerational income mobility","authors":"Anning Hu , Zhipeng Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102059","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102059","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study extensively elucidates the methodological advantages inherent in a copula-based framework for researching intergenerational income mobility: (1) By delving into copula density, one can shift the focus from a single summary index (such as the rank-rank slope or intergenerational income elasticity) to more nuanced mobility patterns that exhibit less sensitivity to marginal income distribution specifications. (2) With consistent marginal cumulative distributions, the framework enables the examination of changes in bivariate intergenerational income dependence, or morphology. This is achieved by assessing variations in copula density before and after accounting for relevant covariates, with the Cramér–von Mises statistic providing a user-friendly test for the statistical significance of these variations. (3) The copula-based framework, through the construction of different cross profiles on the copula density surface, accommodates research objectives related to both relative and absolute income mobility. To exemplify the application of this framework, we investigate intergenerational income mobility between 1978 and 2017 using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102059"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-06DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102060
Juan Yang , Bonan Shi , Bo Han
Since 2000, China has continuously increased public education funding to reduce the impact of family education expenditure on the academic performance of disadvantaged students. We find that the increase in public education funding has not only failed to reduce the economic burden of family education, but has increased family education expenditure. We use the county-level data matched with the micro-survey data of CHIP (China Household Income Project) to analyze the relationship between public education expenditure and family education expenditure in China. We find that public education expenditure has a significant crowding-in effect on family education expenditure in compulsory education. The effect in junior high school is greater than that in primary school, and is more significant. We believe that self-selection and competition mechanisms play crucial roles in the crowding-in effect.
{"title":"Does increased public education spending reduce the financial burden on families?","authors":"Juan Yang , Bonan Shi , Bo Han","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since 2000, China has continuously increased public education funding to reduce the impact of family education expenditure on the academic performance of disadvantaged students. We find that the increase in public education funding has not only failed to reduce the economic burden of family education, but has increased family education expenditure. We use the county-level data matched with the micro-survey data of CHIP (China Household Income Project) to analyze the relationship between public education expenditure and family education expenditure in China. We find that public education expenditure has a significant crowding-in effect on family education expenditure in compulsory education. The effect in junior high school is greater than that in primary school, and is more significant. We believe that self-selection and competition mechanisms play crucial roles in the crowding-in effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102060"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-06DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102058
Peng Zhan , Yibo Mao
This study is the first to examine the long-term impact and trend of intergenerational care on the labor supply of middle-aged women. The primary data are drawn from the 2002, 2013, and 2018 China Household Income Project surveys. The findings reveal that the effect of intergenerational care on the labor supply has strengthened over the past two decades. Although the effect was not significant in 2002, it became highly significant by 2018. Decomposition analysis shows that compared to the endowment effect, the coefficient effect of intergenerational care was a key driver of the decline in labor supply among middle-aged women between 2013 and 2018, accounting for 16.81 % of the total change. Further analysis indicates that the expansion of public preschool education in 2018 encouraged young mothers to return to the labor market, thereby increasing the time burden of caregiving for middle-aged women. Simultaneously, the rising cost of education added to the financial burden on households and further increased the demand for intergenerational care. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how intergenerational care shapes women’s retirement decisions over time, offer important insights into their broader consequences, and provide policy implications for improving public preschool education services.
{"title":"A study on the long-term trend of middle-aged female labor supply in urban China: The explanation from inter-generational care","authors":"Peng Zhan , Yibo Mao","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102058","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102058","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study is the first to examine the long-term impact and trend of intergenerational care on the labor supply of middle-aged women. The primary data are drawn from the 2002, 2013, and 2018 China Household Income Project surveys. The findings reveal that the effect of intergenerational care on the labor supply has strengthened over the past two decades. Although the effect was not significant in 2002, it became highly significant by 2018. Decomposition analysis shows that compared to the endowment effect, the coefficient effect of intergenerational care was a key driver of the decline in labor supply among middle-aged women between 2013 and 2018, accounting for 16.81 % of the total change. Further analysis indicates that the expansion of public preschool education in 2018 encouraged young mothers to return to the labor market, thereby increasing the time burden of caregiving for middle-aged women. Simultaneously, the rising cost of education added to the financial burden on households and further increased the demand for intergenerational care. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how intergenerational care shapes women’s retirement decisions over time, offer important insights into their broader consequences, and provide policy implications for improving public preschool education services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102058"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-02DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102057
Qiaoqin Xiong , Feng Deng , Hongjun Li , Danxia Xie
This paper leverages a regulatory dataset from the China antitrust authority to provide methodological guidance for improving the pre-merger notification rule, examining both its form and level. We simulate the government's decision-making process and use the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to optimize the rule. Our goal is to address concerns about excessively low thresholds or complex criteria (Type I error) and unreasonably high thresholds or singular criteria (Type II error). We find that China's current notification threshold levels tend to be rigid. Relative to the turnover-based "Size-of-Person" criterion, the "Size-of-Transaction" criterion appears more effective for identifying potential anti-competitive cases in a "simple and objective" manner. Although the study is based in China, the techniques and empirical findings are expected to have broader implications.
{"title":"Optimizing the pre-merger notification rule with regulatory data: Empirical analysis from China","authors":"Qiaoqin Xiong , Feng Deng , Hongjun Li , Danxia Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102057","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102057","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper leverages a regulatory dataset from the China antitrust authority to provide methodological guidance for improving the pre-merger notification rule, examining both its form and level. We simulate the government's decision-making process and use the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to optimize the rule. Our goal is to address concerns about excessively low thresholds or complex criteria (Type I error) and unreasonably high thresholds or singular criteria (Type II error). We find that China's current notification threshold levels tend to be rigid. Relative to the turnover-based \"Size-of-Person\" criterion, the \"Size-of-Transaction\" criterion appears more effective for identifying potential anti-competitive cases in a \"simple and objective\" manner. Although the study is based in China, the techniques and empirical findings are expected to have broader implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102057"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102054
Changyuan Luo , Shuai Zeng , Yi Zhao
This paper examines the impact of exports on the gender income inequality in China by exploiting a plausibly exogenous shock of the granting of permanent normal trade relationship (PNTR) to China. Our empirical strategy establishes that cities with higher PNTR exposure exhibit a significant increase in the female workers’ income relative to male counterparts, thereby reducing the gender income inequality. This phenomenon can be attributed primarily to the reduction in gender discrimination, and is more pronounced among younger and less-skilled individuals. However, the increase in females’ relative income does not contribute to the enhancement of the gender equality within the household.
{"title":"The other side of the China syndrome: Export opportunities and gender income inequality in China","authors":"Changyuan Luo , Shuai Zeng , Yi Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of exports on the gender income inequality in China by exploiting a plausibly exogenous shock of the granting of permanent normal trade relationship (PNTR) to China. Our empirical strategy establishes that cities with higher PNTR exposure exhibit a significant increase in the female workers’ income relative to male counterparts, thereby reducing the gender income inequality. This phenomenon can be attributed primarily to the reduction in gender discrimination, and is more pronounced among younger and less-skilled individuals. However, the increase in females’ relative income does not contribute to the enhancement of the gender equality within the household.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102054"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145320788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102055
Jiaping Zhang , Mingwang Cheng , Xiaomei Gong
In recent decades, there has been growing concern about what determines people’s willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental resources. Based on data from the Chinese General Social Survey, this study investigates the impact of Internet use on Chinese residents’ WTP for air quality improvements. Results from instrumental variable estimation show that Internet use is positively associated with both the likelihood of paying for clean air and the amount individuals are willing to contribute. Mechanism analysis suggests that Internet use enhances WTP by raising environmental risk perception and strengthening environmental protection awareness. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive association is more pronounced among individuals with lower socio-economic status. These findings shed light on the potential of Internet technology in cultivating public pro-environmental behaviors and awareness in the digital era.
{"title":"Internet use and willingness to pay for air quality improvements: Evidence from China","authors":"Jiaping Zhang , Mingwang Cheng , Xiaomei Gong","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent decades, there has been growing concern about what determines people’s willingness to pay (WTP) for environmental resources. Based on data from the Chinese General Social Survey, this study investigates the impact of Internet use on Chinese residents’ WTP for air quality improvements. Results from instrumental variable estimation show that Internet use is positively associated with both the likelihood of paying for clean air and the amount individuals are willing to contribute. Mechanism analysis suggests that Internet use enhances WTP by raising environmental risk perception and strengthening environmental protection awareness. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive association is more pronounced among individuals with lower socio-economic status. These findings shed light on the potential of Internet technology in cultivating public pro-environmental behaviors and awareness in the digital era.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102055"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102053
Yanjun Li , Yuanyuan Wan , Shenxiang Xie
This paper systematically examines the impact of regional market integration on employment using matching data from China’s enterprise tax surveys and business registration information from 2009 to 2015. We find that regional market integration significantly increases corporate labor employment. Mechanism analysis shows that regional market integration significantly affects corporate labor employment through three channels: expansion of market demand, alleviation of financing constraints, and intensification of market competition. Our analysis further reveals that regional market integration improves employment both at the intensive and extensive margins. From a dynamic employment perspective, it promotes net employment growth by enhancing job creation and reducing job destruction. Additionally, regional market integration leads to increased employee compensation levels, indicating positive implications for enhancing employment quality. Our heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of regional market integration varies according to firms’ characteristics, including productivity levels, ownership, location, and industry categorization.
{"title":"The employment effects of regional market integration: Evidence from China","authors":"Yanjun Li , Yuanyuan Wan , Shenxiang Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102053","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper systematically examines the impact of regional market integration on employment using matching data from China’s enterprise tax surveys and business registration information from 2009 to 2015. We find that regional market integration significantly increases corporate labor employment. Mechanism analysis shows that regional market integration significantly affects corporate labor employment through three channels: expansion of market demand, alleviation of financing constraints, and intensification of market competition. Our analysis further reveals that regional market integration improves employment both at the intensive and extensive margins. From a dynamic employment perspective, it promotes net employment growth by enhancing job creation and reducing job destruction. Additionally, regional market integration leads to increased employee compensation levels, indicating positive implications for enhancing employment quality. Our heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of regional market integration varies according to firms’ characteristics, including productivity levels, ownership, location, and industry categorization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102053"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-24DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102051
Chien-Chiang Lee , Godwin Olasehinde-Williams , Seyi Saint Akadiri
The persistent imbalance in Türkiye's fossil fuel trade raises important questions about the role of macroeconomic factors, particularly exchange rate dynamics, in shaping energy trade outcomes. Despite theoretical assertions of the J-curve, empirical evidence specific to the physical trade balance of fossil fuels remains limited. This study investigates the short- and long-run effects of real exchange rate movements on Türkiye's physical trade balance for fossil fuels from 1994 to 2024, incorporating gross domestic product, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness as control variables. Employing the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) approach, the results confirm the existence of a J-curve effect, whereby currency depreciation at first worsens but subsequently improves the physical trade balance for fossil fuels. Additionally, economic growth significantly exacerbates fossil fuel trade deficits, while renewable energy consumption reduces the imbalance in the short run. Trade openness is found to have a positive short-run impact, although its long-run effect is statistically insignificant. The study proposes policy recommendations to manage exchange rate flexibility, accelerate renewable energy transitions, and align trade and energy policies to achieve a more resilient and sustainable energy trade balance for Türkiye. The results offer fresh insights into the complex interlinkages between macroeconomic fundamentals and energy trade dynamics.
{"title":"The J-curve phenomenon in Türkiye’s fossil fuel trade balance: A fourier-ARDL analysis","authors":"Chien-Chiang Lee , Godwin Olasehinde-Williams , Seyi Saint Akadiri","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102051","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102051","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The persistent imbalance in Türkiye's fossil fuel trade raises important questions about the role of macroeconomic factors, particularly exchange rate dynamics, in shaping energy trade outcomes. Despite theoretical assertions of the J-curve, empirical evidence specific to the physical trade balance of fossil fuels remains limited. This study investigates the short- and long-run effects of real exchange rate movements on Türkiye's physical trade balance for fossil fuels from 1994 to 2024, incorporating gross domestic product, renewable energy consumption, and trade openness as control variables. Employing the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) approach, the results confirm the existence of a J-curve effect, whereby currency depreciation at first worsens but subsequently improves the physical trade balance for fossil fuels. Additionally, economic growth significantly exacerbates fossil fuel trade deficits, while renewable energy consumption reduces the imbalance in the short run. Trade openness is found to have a positive short-run impact, although its long-run effect is statistically insignificant. The study proposes policy recommendations to manage exchange rate flexibility, accelerate renewable energy transitions, and align trade and energy policies to achieve a more resilient and sustainable energy trade balance for Türkiye. The results offer fresh insights into the complex interlinkages between macroeconomic fundamentals and energy trade dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102051"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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