JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES最新文献

Purpose

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

Findings

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to explore the potential of utilizing Global Consciousness Project (GCP) data as a tool for understanding and predicting market sentiment. Specifically, the study aims to assess whether incorporating GCP data into econometric models can enhance the comprehension of daily market movements, providing valuable insights for traders.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs econometric models to investigate the correlation between the Standard & Poor's 500 Volatility Index (VIX), a common measure of market sentiment and data from the GCP. The focus is particularly on the largest daily composite GCP data value (Max[Z]) and its significant covariation with changes in VIX. The research employs interaction terms with VIX and daily returns from global markets, including Europe and Asia, to explore the relationship further.

Findings

The results reveal a significant relationship with the GCP data, particularly Max[Z] and VIX. Interaction terms with both VIX and daily returns from global markets are highly significant, explaining about one percent of the variance in the econometric model. This finding suggests that variations in GCP data can contribute to a better understanding of market dynamics and improve forecasting accuracy.

Research limitations/implications

One limitation of this study is the potential for overfitting and P-hacking. To address this concern, the models undergo rigorous testing in an out-of-sample simulation study lasting for a predefined one-year period. This limitation underscores the need for cautious interpretation and application of the findings, recognizing the complexities and uncertainties inherent in market dynamics.

Practical implications

The study explores the practical implications of incorporating GCP data into trading strategies. Econometric models, both with and without GCP data, are subjected to an out-of-sample simulation where an artificial trader employs S&P 500 tracking instruments based on the model's one-day-ahead forecasts. The results suggest that GCP data can enhance daily forecasts, offering practical value for traders seeking improved decision-making tools.

Originality/value

Utilizing data from the GCP is found to be advantageous for traders as noteworthy correlations with market sentiment are found. This unanticipated finding challenges established paradigms in both economics and consciousness research, seamlessly integrating these domains of research. Traders can leverage this innovative tool, as it can be used to refine forecasting precision.

Purpose

Public debt forecasts represent a key policy issue. Many methodologies have been employed to predict debt sustainability, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, the stock flow consistent method, the structural vector autoregressive model and, more recently, the neuro-fuzzy method. Despite their widespread application in the empirical literature, all of these approaches exhibit shortcomings that limit their utility. The present research adopts a different approach to public debt forecasts, that is, the random forest, an ensemble of machine learning.

Design/methodology/approach

Using quarterly observations over the period 2000–2021, the present research tests the reliability of the random forest technique for forecasting the Italian public debt.

Findings

The results show the large predictive power of this method to forecast debt-to-GDP fluctuations, with no need to model the underlying structure of the economy.

Originality/value

Compared to other methodologies, the random forest method has a predictive capacity that is granted by the algorithm itself. The use of repeated learning, training and validation stages provides well-defined parameters that are not conditional to strong theoretical restrictions This allows to overcome the shortcomings arising from the traditional techniques which are generally adopted in the empirical literature to forecast public debt.

Purpose

The study analyzes the relationship between homeownership and financial investment of households in the context of emerging markets like India. It also examines how homeownership affects the portfolio decisions of Indian households.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the nationally representative All-India Debt and Investment Survey of 2019 and employing an instrumental variable approach, the authors analyze the relationship between homeownership and the share of financial assets held by Indian households. The study also employs several sensitivity checks, including alternate estimation techniques and alternative definitions of the housing variables, and accounts for additional factors to ensure that the authors are able to capture the effect of homeownership on the outcome variable.

Findings

The analysis suggests homeownership crowds out financial investment in India due to high repair and maintenance costs. The negative effect is mainly observed in urban households. Further, the findings imply that homeownership leads households to reallocate their asset portfolio. Homeowners have a lower share in liquid short term deposits, indicating the high liquidity risk of their portfolios. On the other hand, homeownership increases the share of long term retirement funds along with no effect on risky asset share. The authors observe that the crowding out effect is more striking for younger households and poorer households with low income, and the effect is lower for indebted households.

Practical implications

The findings underscore the need for financial awareness programs so that housing does not crowd out liquid investments of households. Additionally, the results highlight that policies should first focus on young and poor households as the negative effect is more prominent for these groups. Finally, there is scope for policies to support repair and maintenance costs incurred by vulnerable households to reduce the negative effect of housing on liquid financial investments.

Originality/value

This paper is among the few studies that provide insights into how homeownership relates to financial investment and portfolio decisions in the context of an emerging economy. Furthermore, the heterogeneous effects based on poor economic status and age underscore the need for complementary policies.

Purpose

This article analyzes the determinants of credit constraints and their effects on the productivity of micro-firms in Colombia.

Design/methodology/approach

An Endogenous Switching Regression Model (ESRM) is estimated to analyze credit constraint impact on economic performance.

Findings

The results show that owner characteristics such as age and gender decrease the likelihood of being constrained. Firms' characteristics, such as legal status, the formality of the employees, commercial property and savings, are important for reducing credit constraints.

Originality/value

This article discusses how formal credit restrictions harm the economic performance of Colombia's micro-firms. The results show that the productivity of the micro firms in Colombia could increase, on average, by U$ 825 USD when all types of restrictions are eliminated.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the relationship between fiscal policy and total factor productivity (TFP) while accounting for several economic and econometric issues of the phenomenon like non-stationarity, fiscal feedback effects, persistence in productivity, country heterogeneity and unobserved global shocks and local spillovers affecting heterogeneously the countries in the sample.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is empirical. It builds an Error Correction Model (ECM) specification within a dynamic heterogeneous framework with common correlated effects and models both reverse causality and feedback effects.

Findings

The results of this study highlight some new findings relative to the existing related literature. The outcomes suggest some relevant evidence at both the academic and policy levels: (1) the causal effects going from fiscal deficit/surplus to TFP are heterogeneous across countries; (2) the effects depend on the time horizon considered; (3) the long-run dynamics of TFP are positively impacted by improvements in fiscal budget, but only if the austerity measures do not exert slowdowns in aggregate growth.

Originality/value

The main originality of this study is methodological, with possible extensions to related phenomena. Relative to the existing literature, the gains of this study rely on the way econometric techniques, recently proposed in the literature, are adapted to the economic relationship of interest. The endogeneity due to the existence of reverse causality is modelled without implying relevant performance losses of the models. Moreover, this is the first article that questions whether the effects of fiscal budget on productivity depend on the impact of the former on aggregate output growth, thus emphasising the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments.

Purpose

The current study aims to investigate the mediating role of executive stock options in the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and research and development (R&D) investment through two measures of financial constraints.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is based on a sample of 90 French firms for the period extending from 2008 to 2020. The authors employ a panel threshold method to analyze whether the impact of financial constraints on R&D investment depends on the level of financial constraints or not.

Findings

Using SA index (Hadlock and Pierce, 2010) and FCP index (Schauer et al., 2019) as measures of financial constraints, the authors demonstrate that the relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment is nonlinear. Moreover, the authors find that executive stock options mediate partially the relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment. More specifically, the authors show that stock options could play two roles depending on the level of the financial constraints; inconsistent mediation for firms with low/medium level of financial constraints and partial mediation for highly constrained firms.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to the best of the authors' knowledge to investigate the nonlinear relationship between financial constraints and R&D investment as well as the mediating role of executive stock option using dynamic panel threshold models.

Purpose

The authors construct an index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for Greece using textual analysis and analyze its role in the 10-year Greek economic crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

To identify the causal relationship between various measures of economic activity and EPU in Greece, the authors use a sophisticated “shock-based” structural vector autoregressive identification scheme. Additionally, the authors use two additional models to ensure the robustness of the results.

Findings

EPU is negatively associated with domestic economic activity and economic sentiment, and positively with bond credit spreads. EPU is also estimated to have prolonged the crisis even in periods when macroeconomic imbalances were cured. The results are robust across various model specifications and different proxies of economic activity.

Originality/value

Brunnermeier (2017) observed that uncertainty may be central to understanding the evolution of the Greek crisis. Yet little attention has been paid to policy uncertainty in the existing long and growing literature on the Greek crisis. The authors attempt to fill this gap.

Purpose

The banking industry, which is one of the most significant industries when taking into account both deposit sizes and employment statistics in Turkey, is one of the country's primary economic drivers. In this regard, it is highly important to evaluate banks as it is necessary to present to what extent they use their resources efficiently. The main purpose of the study is to analyze the efficiencies of Turkish banks by the two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity index (MPI).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors aim to analyze both the efficiency and productivity of Turkish banks by two-stage DEA and the MPI, which enable decomposing into sub-sections of production processes. Hence, more detailed insight into the Turkish banking system can be presented through two-stage efficiency and production approaches.

Findings

DEA results indicate that two out of three state-owned banks achieved resource efficiency while none of the investigated banks performed profit efficiency throughout the investigated period. Besides, average resource efficiency is found higher than average profit efficiency in Turkish banks. MPI results reveal that both technological and technical improvement prospects exist for Turkish banks.

Originality/value

The original contribution of this paper is to employ two-stage DEA and the MPI, which reflect both the static and dynamic performance of the Turkish banking sector. In this regard, this study aims to be a pioneer by both reflecting the static and dynamic performance analysis of Turkish banks.