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The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency 社会灾难的预测:必要性与偶然性之间
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL Pub Date : 2023-11-19 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12399
Pierpaolo Donati

The article argues that social catastrophes are the product of networks of unsaturated social relations that lead to the exponential spread of a social evil (pandemic, poverty, desertification, etc.). In the exponential curve of catastrophe there is an inflection point where, if unsaturated social relations are saturated, the catastrophe can be halted and ultimately avoided. The inflection point can be conceived as a generative relational complex in which both necessity and contingency of social relations are at work. Necessity is due to constitutive mechanisms that are automatic and, therefore, to some extent mathematically predictable. Contingency refers to non-automatic, in principle unpredictable relational mechanisms. However, contingency can be of two kinds. It can mean “dependence on” other factors, which can have some degree of predictability, or can be understood as the possibility of “being otherwise”, which is less predictable in its outcomes, but can also open up new opportunities to change the catastrophic trend. The reduction of the exponential curve to logistics can be expected if the networks of relationships at the inflection point are saturated in one way or another. This can be achieved by managing the contingent factors of both types in order to steer the morphogenetic processes of the social networks that configure the inflection point as a relational complex.

文章认为,社会灾难是不饱和社会关系网络的产物,不饱和社会关系网络导致社会罪恶(大流行病、贫困、荒漠化等)以指数形式蔓延。在灾难的指数曲线上有一个拐点,如果未饱和的社会关系达到饱和,灾难就会停止并最终避免。拐点可以被视为一个生成关系的复合体,其中社会关系的必然性和偶然性都在起作用。必然性源于自动的构成机制,因此在某种程度上是数学上可预测的。偶然性指的是非自动的、原则上不可预测的关系机制。然而,偶然性可以分为两种。它可以指 "依赖于 "其他因素,这在一定程度上可以预测;也可以理解为 "以其他方式存在 "的可能性,其结果的可预测性较低,但也可以带来改变灾难性趋势的新机遇。如果拐点处的关系网络在某种程度上达到饱和,就有望将指数曲线降低为物流曲线。要做到这一点,就必须对这两种类型的偶然因素进行管理,以引导社会网络的变形过程,将拐点配置为一个关系综合体。
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引用次数: 0
Imagine, predict or perform? Reclaiming the future in sociology beyond scientism and catastrophism 想象、预测还是表演?超越科学主义和灾难主义,在社会学中重塑未来
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL Pub Date : 2023-11-19 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12402
Andrea M. Maccarini

In this article I examine and criticize some mainstream views of the future within scholarly debates, mainly in social science. The goal is to review the strategies sociology is following to include the future as a theme of its own reflections. Such strategies also reveal relevant aspects of the society in which they are developed. The main argument revolves around some tensions concerning the relationship of contemporary societies to their future. The key points can be summarized as follows: in contemporary complex societies, where change is believed to be the only constant, social science seems to have abandoned the future as a theme of its reflections, while at the same time prediction and forecast are increasingly necessary. Future studies are, therefore, mainly an enterprise for managers and engineers, taking place in either government or corporate environments and far from the academy. Why is this happening? And is it necessarily so? What does sociology know about "the future(s)? Could prediction still be the form of the argument sociology can make about the future? And if this cannot be, then what exactly is its possible contribution – if any? Are these embarrassing questions a reflection of the way things really are, or of a wrong attitude sociology has taken to future studies? The main thesis is that insofar as sociology still occupies the field of future studies, it is undergoing a process of hybridization, which leads to mix its representational and performative function in a new way, and that can possibly escape confusion with old and new forms of utopian thinking. Such a thesis is illustrated introducing one particular analytic tool deployed in social scientific oriented future studies, namely scenarios, and comparing its inherent logic with that of the morphogenetic approach to sociological research. I attempt to examine the rationale of such a tool, and how it can serve the purpose of sociological analysis, constituting some kind of reflexive morphogenesis of sociological theory of the future

在这篇文章中,我研究并批评了学术辩论中对未来的一些主流观点,主要是在社会科学领域。其目的是回顾社会学将未来作为自身思考主题的策略。这些策略也揭示了其所处社会的相关方面。主要论点围绕当代社会与其未来关系的一些紧张关系展开。要点可归纳如下:在当代复杂的社会中,变化被认为是唯一不变的,社会科学似乎放弃了将未来作为其思考的主题,但同时预测和预报又越来越有必要。因此,未来研究主要是管理人员和工程师的事业,在政府或企业环境中进行,远离了学术界。为什么会出现这种情况?是否必然如此?社会学对 "未来 "了解多少?社会学是否还能以预测的形式来论证未来?如果不能,那么社会学可能做出的贡献(如果有的话)究竟是什么?这些令人尴尬的问题是反映了事情的真实情况,还是反映了社会学对未来研究采取了错误的态度?本文的主要论点是,就社会学仍然占据未来研究领域而言,它正在经历一个混杂化的过程,这导致它以一种新的方式混合了其表征和表演功能,并有可能摆脱与新旧乌托邦思想形式的混淆。我将介绍社会科学未来研究中的一种特殊分析工具--情景,并将其内在逻辑与社会学研究中的形态发生学方法进行比较。我试图研究这种工具的原理,以及它如何服务于社会学分析的目的,构成未来社会学理论的某种反思性形态生成。
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引用次数: 0
Everything, everywhere, but not all at once? Time, contingency and the open future 万事万物,无处不在,但并非同时存在?时间、偶然性和开放的未来
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12401
Jamie Morgan

The subject of this special forum is contingency and the openness of the future, and in this essay we take a route not often travelled in regard of these and focus first on philosophy of time. We contrast static and dynamic theory of time in order to (eventually) acquire some traction on the meaning of both contingency and the open future. We suggest critical realism presupposes dynamic theory and that critical realism provides various conceptualizations that might contribute to dynamic theory.

本特别论坛的主题是或然性和未来的开放性,在这篇文章中,我们选择了一条不常走的路线,首先关注时间哲学。我们将时间的静态理论和动态理论进行对比,以便(最终)在偶然性和开放的未来的意义上获得一些牵引力。我们认为批判现实主义以动态理论为前提,而批判现实主义提供的各种概念化可能有助于动态理论。
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引用次数: 0
Ontological unpredictability: what can realists say about unpredictability, contingency and catastrophe? 本体论的不可预测性:现实主义者如何看待不可预测性、偶然性和灾难?
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12400
Ismael Al-Amoudi

This paper introduces the original research articles that constitute the present Forum issue on unpredictability, contingency and catastrophe. In doing so, it also identifies and discusses the specificity of realist approaches to the above questions. It is argued that attentiveness to the ontological dimension of (un)predictability opens promising avenues for reflexive approaches to social science and collective action.

本文介绍了构成本期论坛的关于不可预测性、偶然性和灾难的原创研究文章。在此过程中,它还确定并讨论了现实主义方法在上述问题上的特殊性。本文认为,关注(不)可预测性的本体论维度为社会科学和集体行动的反思性方法开辟了前景广阔的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Neither individualism nor anti-individualism: The coevolution of social systems and psychic systems 既不是个人主义,也不是反个人主义:社会系统与心理系统的共同进化
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12395
Jean-Sébastien Guy

Major paradigms in sociology and social sciences usually embrace either individualism or anti-individualism as fundamental worldview. This paper explores a third way between individualism and anti-individualism developed by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann in his systems theory. Luhmann treats actors or individuals as psychic systems and he distinguishes them from social systems. In a nutshell, social systems produce communication, whereas psychic systems produce consciousness. In line with anti-individualism, Luhmann therefore argues that social systems are irreducible to psychic systems and their actions. On the other hand, Luhmann joins ranks with individualism to assert that psychic systems are not rigorously constrained by social systems. Ultimately, Luhmann explains that social systems and psychic systems are part of each other's environment and that each type of systems provides the ecological conditions that the other type depends on to emerge and grow. To discuss this third way between individualism and anti-individualism, the paper examines more specifically two central points in Luhmann's theory: (1) how social systems and psychic systems are separated from each other, and (2) how social systems and psychic systems are coevolving.

社会学和社会科学的主要范式通常将个人主义或反个人主义作为基本世界观。本文探讨了德国社会学家尼克拉斯-卢曼(Niklas Luhmann)在其系统理论中提出的介于个人主义与反个人主义之间的第三条道路。卢曼将行动者或个人视为心理系统,并将其与社会系统区分开来。简而言之,社会系统产生交流,而心理系统产生意识。因此,根据反个体主义的观点,卢曼认为社会系统不可还原为心理系统及其行为。另一方面,卢曼与个人主义联合起来,主张心理系统并不严格受制于社会系统。最终,卢曼解释说,社会系统和心理系统是彼此环境的一部分,每一类系统都提供了生态条件,而另一类系统则依赖于这些条件才能出现和成长。为了讨论这种介于个人主义和反个人主义之间的第三条道路,本文更具体地研究了卢曼理论中的两个核心要点:(1) 社会系统和心理系统如何相互分离,以及 (2) 社会系统和心理系统如何共同发展。
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引用次数: 0
Experience, Subjectivity, Selfhood: Beyond a Meadian Sociology of the Self 经验、主观性、自我身份:超越迈阿迪的自我社会学
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-15 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12396
Dan Zahavi, Dominik Zelinsky

Sociologists tend to see G. H. Mead's conceptualization of self as fundamentally correct. In this paper, we develop a critique of Mead's notion of the self as constituted through social interactions. Our focus will be on Mead's categorial distinction between the socially constructed self and subjective experience, as well as on the tendency of post-Meadian sociologists to push Mead's position in ever more radical directions. Drawing inspiration from a multifaceted understanding of selfhood that can be found in Husserlian phenomenology, we then propose that the most basic level of selfhood is anchored in irreducible subjective experience.

社会学家倾向于认为米德(G. H. Mead)的自我概念从根本上是正确的。在本文中,我们将对米德通过社会互动构成自我的概念进行批判。我们的重点是米德对社会建构的自我和主观经验的分类区分,以及后米德社会学家将米德的立场推向更激进方向的趋势。我们从胡塞尔现象学对自我身份的多层面理解中汲取灵感,提出自我身份最基本的层面是不可还原的主观经验。
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引用次数: 0
Who am I when I don't know who I am? The problem of personal identity in infants and elderly with cognitive disabilities 当我不知道自己是谁时,我是谁?有认知障碍的婴儿和老人的个人身份问题
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12397
Marcos Alonso

This article addresses the problem of whether we can speak of personal identity in cases of infants or elderly with cognitive disabilities as hydrocephaly or dementia, lives that could be considered borderline in terms of personal identity because they lack certain characteristics normally considered indispensable for personal life. Taking as a reference recent discussions on personal identity, particularly the narrative theories of Hilde Lindemann, Françoise Baylis and Marya Schechtman, the article analyses in what sense, under what assumptions, and in what way such a thing could be defended. Finally, some problems and objections to these approaches are considered.

本文探讨的问题是,在婴儿或老人患有认知障碍(如脑积水或痴呆症)的情况下,我们是否可以谈论个人身份的问题,这些人由于缺乏某些通常被认为是个人生活不可或缺的特征,可以被视为个人身份的边缘人。文章以最近关于个人身份的讨论,特别是希尔德-林德曼(Hilde Lindemann)、弗朗索瓦丝-贝利斯(Françoise Baylis)和玛丽雅-谢赫特曼(Marya Schechtman)的叙事理论为参考,分析了在何种意义上、在何种假设下以及以何种方式为这种事情辩护。最后,文章考虑了这些方法存在的一些问题和反对意见。
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引用次数: 0
The nature of bank money, a case study of transformation in the Czech banking sector 银行货币的性质:捷克银行业转型案例研究
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12394
Jan Jonáš

The article examines the nature of bank money on two complementary levels. The first level deals with theoretical considerations. Here, the departure point is Social Positioning Theory, which provides a framework to investigate the nature of money. Within the theory, the paper situates bank money in credit-debt relations, that are themselves integral part of a wider productive-consumptive nexus of the economy. In this perspective, bank money is the relation, accounting economic positions of participating members, resulting from their economic activities realized within the context of the overall society. The second level uses the methods of Oral History and Memory Studies and, through semi-structured interviews, provides empirical material illustrating ideas about the nature of money in a specific historical form. The article thus explores the contrasting experiences of banking in the context of a centrally planned economy and banking in the transformation to a market economy. These two contrasting episodes are illustrative because of the significant change in the form of bank money, which brings to light various aspects of its nature. Moreover, the article utilizes interviews that present the lived experience of bankers with years of involvement in the sector, enriching the perspective on the issue under study.

文章从两个互补的层面探讨了银行货币的性质。第一个层面涉及理论考虑。本文的出发点是社会定位理论,该理论为研究货币的性质提供了一个框架。根据这一理论,本文将银行货币置于信贷-债务关系中,而信贷-债务关系本身又是经济中更广泛的生产-消费关系的组成部分。从这个角度看,银行货币是一种关系,是参与成员的经济地位的核算,是其经济活动在整个社会背景下实现的结果。第二个层面采用了口述历史和记忆研究的方法,通过半结构式访谈提供了实证材料,说明了在特定历史形式下有关货币性质的观点。因此,文章探讨了中央计划经济背景下的银行业和向市场经济转型过程中的银行业的对比经历。由于银行货币的形式发生了重大变化,其性质的各个方面也随之浮出水面,因此这两段截然不同的经历具有很强的说明性。此外,文章还利用访谈的形式,介绍了在该行业从业多年的银行家的亲身经历,丰富了对所研究问题的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Autonomous Agency in Anti-Dualistic Social Ontologies: A Compatibilist Notion 反二元社会本体论中的自主代理:兼容性概念
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12393
Tero Piiroinen

Anti-dualistic social ontologies, those highlighting the intrinsic interdependency of agency and structure as two sides of the same coin, are sometimes criticized for failing to provide a satisfactory account of autonomous – capable and free – agency, or even denying the reality of such agency. This paper contests these claims, arguing that anti-dualistic ontologies only conflict with autonomous agency when the latter is understood in a highly voluntaristic sense, whose ideational roots go to what philosophers of free will call “incompatibilist” intuitions of freedom. Those intuitions suggest that actions (intentions, decisions) ultimately determined by extrinsic causes lack the kind of freedom presupposed by moral responsibility, so when agentive autonomy is presumed to involve such freedom, it does indeed cohere poorly with the anti-dualistic picture of intrinsically structured agency. Herein, however, an alternative, “compatibilist” notion of autonomy is advanced, such that does not conflict with extrinsic determination and is therefore congruent with anti-dualistic social ontologies.

反二元论社会本体论强调机构与结构的内在相互依存性,将其视为一枚硬币的两面,有时会被批评为无法对自主机构--有能力和自由的机构--做出令人满意的解释,甚至否认这种机构的存在。本文对这些说法提出质疑,认为反二元论本体论只有在对自主能动性作高度意志主义意义上的理解时,才会与自主能动性发生冲突,而自主能动性的思想根源来自自由意志哲学家所谓的 "不相容 "的自由直觉。这些直觉认为,最终由外在原因决定的行动(意图、决定)缺乏道德责任所预设的那种自由,因此,当代理自主性被假定为包含这种自由时,它确实与内在结构代理的反二元论图景不甚一致。然而,这里提出了另一种 "兼容论 "的自主性概念,它与外在决定并不冲突,因此与反二元论的社会本体论是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
The Failure of Roy Bhaskar's Explanatory Critique 巴斯卡解释性批评的失败
IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1111/jtsb.12392
William Hannegan

According to Roy Bhaskar, social science can derive values from social facts by a process called “explanatory critique.” Bhaskar offers two different versions of explanatory critique: a belief-based version and a need-based version. Both versions are faced with a difficult objection. They seem either to employ an invalid inference or to assume the values that they are attempting to derive. I argue that at least the need-based version of Bhaskar's explanatory critique falls to the objection, and that the belief-based version on its own is insufficient. Bhaskar anticipates the objection and offers a defense. I show that his defense is unsuccessful. I also suggest a Baskar-inspired alternative explanatory critique.

根据罗伊·巴斯卡尔(Roy Bhaskar)的说法,社会科学可以通过一种称为“解释性批判”的过程,从社会事实中得出价值。巴斯卡尔提供了两种不同版本的解释性批判:基于信念的版本和基于需求的版本。这两个版本都面临着困难的反对。他们似乎要么采用无效的推理,要么假设他们试图推导的值。我认为,至少巴斯卡尔的解释性批评的基于需求的版本落在了反对意见上,而基于信仰的版本本身是不够的。巴斯卡尔预料到了反对意见,并提出了辩护。我证明他的辩护是不成功的。我还提出了Baskar启发的另一种解释性批评。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour
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