Formal and informal modifications to the US-Japan Alliance have expanded the value the Alliance operational structure delivers in support of US and Japanese national and combined naval activities in Southeast Asia. This article analyzes how the Alliance now serves as an increasingly powerful force multiplier which magnifies the capabilities, efficiency, and impact of the two allies’ naval activities in Southeast Asia. Unlike previous studies on the role of the United States or Japan in the region, it focuses on the evolving functionality of the Alliance operational structure. The article systematically discusses how the evolving nature of the Alliance operational structure is enabling it to provide expanded support for Southeast Asian maritime security in five areas: basing, combined operations, partnerships and access, extra-regional coordination, and cooperative capacity-building. Those evaluations enable discussions of prospects for US and Japanese initiatives in Southeast Asia.
{"title":"Force Multiplier","authors":"J. Bradford","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1651914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1651914","url":null,"abstract":"Formal and informal modifications to the US-Japan Alliance have expanded the value the Alliance operational structure delivers in support of US and Japanese national and combined naval activities in Southeast Asia. This article analyzes how the Alliance now serves as an increasingly powerful force multiplier which magnifies the capabilities, efficiency, and impact of the two allies’ naval activities in Southeast Asia. Unlike previous studies on the role of the United States or Japan in the region, it focuses on the evolving functionality of the Alliance operational structure. The article systematically discusses how the evolving nature of the Alliance operational structure is enabling it to provide expanded support for Southeast Asian maritime security in five areas: basing, combined operations, partnerships and access, extra-regional coordination, and cooperative capacity-building. Those evaluations enable discussions of prospects for US and Japanese initiatives in Southeast Asia.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines the impact of the Ukraine war on Russian–North Korean relations at three different levels. At the international level, the war will bring two power groups into confrontation. The closer security cooperation between Russia and China will form an illiberal group that will set the security environment for North Korea to establish a new international identity. At the regional level, Russian–Chinese security alignment will be reinforced, which North Korea will exploit. At the bilateral level, Russian–North Korean relations will be strengthened as Russia’s influence in Northeast Asia wanes.
{"title":"The Impact of the Ukraine War on Russian–North Korean Relations","authors":"Yong-Chool Ha, B. Shin","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1800092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1800092","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the impact of the Ukraine war on Russian–North Korean relations at three different levels. At the international level, the war will bring two power groups into confrontation. The closer security cooperation between Russia and China will form an illiberal group that will set the security environment for North Korea to establish a new international identity. At the regional level, Russian–Chinese security alignment will be reinforced, which North Korea will exploit. At the bilateral level, Russian–North Korean relations will be strengthened as Russia’s influence in Northeast Asia wanes.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The past year was a transition, with President Biden proclaiming “America is back,” signaling a change in the agenda and style of US foreign policy. Yet the Biden administration’s approach in the Indo-Pacific has been one of both continuity and change. “Strategic competition” remains the focus of US–China relations, with tensions increasing and few signs of improvement. Yet, it is imperative that this relationship be managed carefully in the years ahead to keep competition from turning into military conflict.
{"title":"The United States and Asia in 2021","authors":"Terence Roehrig","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.01","url":null,"abstract":"The past year was a transition, with President Biden proclaiming “America is back,” signaling a change in the agenda and style of US foreign policy. Yet the Biden administration’s approach in the Indo-Pacific has been one of both continuity and change. “Strategic competition” remains the focus of US–China relations, with tensions increasing and few signs of improvement. Yet, it is imperative that this relationship be managed carefully in the years ahead to keep competition from turning into military conflict.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"438 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Continuing the trendline of 2020, North Korea’s key priorities in 2021 were to tighten its belt economically and control the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two goals were related. With its healthcare system no match for such a public health crisis, the government continued its utmost effort to prevent a COVID-19 disaster through the near-complete closure of its borders, severely hampering vital trade with China. As seen in the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of North Korea, however, chairman Kim Jong-un also prioritized maintaining an assertive stance toward the United States, even to the point of abjuring negotiations with Washington that might have unlocked vaccines or medical assistance. Instead, North Korea frequently criticized the US’s “hostile position” and carried out a variety of missile tests, which seemed more provocative and capable throughout the year. Pyongyang also restarted the Yongbyon nuclear facilities for producing fissile materials. This assertive and provocative behavior was emboldened by steadily closer ties with traditional allies, notably China and Russia. Meanwhile, North Korea largely showed a cold, dismissive attitude to its southern counterpart.
{"title":"North Korea in 2021","authors":"Sukhee Han, Dong-chan Kim","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.05","url":null,"abstract":"Continuing the trendline of 2020, North Korea’s key priorities in 2021 were to tighten its belt economically and control the COVID-19 pandemic. Those two goals were related. With its healthcare system no match for such a public health crisis, the government continued its utmost effort to prevent a COVID-19 disaster through the near-complete closure of its borders, severely hampering vital trade with China. As seen in the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of North Korea, however, chairman Kim Jong-un also prioritized maintaining an assertive stance toward the United States, even to the point of abjuring negotiations with Washington that might have unlocked vaccines or medical assistance. Instead, North Korea frequently criticized the US’s “hostile position” and carried out a variety of missile tests, which seemed more provocative and capable throughout the year. Pyongyang also restarted the Yongbyon nuclear facilities for producing fissile materials. This assertive and provocative behavior was emboldened by steadily closer ties with traditional allies, notably China and Russia. Meanwhile, North Korea largely showed a cold, dismissive attitude to its southern counterpart.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A devastating wave of COVID-19 infections cast a long shadow over all political and economic developments in Indonesia in 2021. Many of the patterns and trends identified in this journal’s previous year-end analysis intensified in 2021, with a deepening of pandemic-induced crises, immense loss of life, and further erosion of democratic norms and institutions, including unprecedented intervention into a corruption watchdog and a major business association. The administration of president Joko Widodo has focused almost exclusively on economic development and business investment throughout the pandemic; but the spread of the Delta strain forced a shift in the government’s approach to lockdowns, prompting new concerns about rising poverty and inequality.
{"title":"Indonesia in 2021","authors":"Eve Warburton","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.09","url":null,"abstract":"A devastating wave of COVID-19 infections cast a long shadow over all political and economic developments in Indonesia in 2021. Many of the patterns and trends identified in this journal’s previous year-end analysis intensified in 2021, with a deepening of pandemic-induced crises, immense loss of life, and further erosion of democratic norms and institutions, including unprecedented intervention into a corruption watchdog and a major business association. The administration of president Joko Widodo has focused almost exclusively on economic development and business investment throughout the pandemic; but the spread of the Delta strain forced a shift in the government’s approach to lockdowns, prompting new concerns about rising poverty and inequality.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A positive start to 2021 ended abruptly when the Delta variant of COVID-19 swept over India, killing millions. Since peaking in May, the pandemic has abated, and the government has vaccinated a large share of the population. The Bharatiya Janata Party continues to dominate the country’s politics, having centralized power further despite a lackluster performance in state elections. The economy recovered vigorously from its COVID-induced recession of 2020, but it is unclear whether growth will return to the 8–9% annual rates witnessed in the 2000s. India is more bogged down in its neighborhood than before: it has been unable to retrieve the territory it lost to China last year, and the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban threatens an increase in terrorism in Kashmir. The country is at a crossroads, and much will depend on how the relatively unfettered senior leadership of the BJP responds to these challenges.
{"title":"India in 2021","authors":"Rikhil R Bhavnani, Saloni Bhogale","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.16","url":null,"abstract":"A positive start to 2021 ended abruptly when the Delta variant of COVID-19 swept over India, killing millions. Since peaking in May, the pandemic has abated, and the government has vaccinated a large share of the population. The Bharatiya Janata Party continues to dominate the country’s politics, having centralized power further despite a lackluster performance in state elections. The economy recovered vigorously from its COVID-induced recession of 2020, but it is unclear whether growth will return to the 8–9% annual rates witnessed in the 2000s. India is more bogged down in its neighborhood than before: it has been unable to retrieve the territory it lost to China last year, and the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban threatens an increase in terrorism in Kashmir. The country is at a crossroads, and much will depend on how the relatively unfettered senior leadership of the BJP responds to these challenges.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67100064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China has embarked on various initiatives to win the hearts and minds of African citizens. Does this strategy contribute to China’s soft power in the region? To answer this question, we focus on two types of initiatives: cultural diplomacy and development finance. Using geolocation information on China’s aid projects and its Confucius Institutes, combined with a survey of more than 50,000 African citizens, we find that both types of soft power initiatives increase citizens’ awareness of Chinese influence in the region. Examining the effects of geographic proximity to project sites, we find that China’s development assistance does not increase Africans’ appreciation of China’s development model, but its cultural diplomacy does. Overall, we find that among individuals exposed to China’s development finance and cultural diplomacy, a greater awareness of China’s influence in the region does not translate into a positive assessment of this influence.
{"title":"Losing Hearts and Minds?","authors":"Sujin Cha, Yehzee Ryoo, S. Kim","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1722144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1722144","url":null,"abstract":"China has embarked on various initiatives to win the hearts and minds of African citizens. Does this strategy contribute to China’s soft power in the region? To answer this question, we focus on two types of initiatives: cultural diplomacy and development finance. Using geolocation information on China’s aid projects and its Confucius Institutes, combined with a survey of more than 50,000 African citizens, we find that both types of soft power initiatives increase citizens’ awareness of Chinese influence in the region. Examining the effects of geographic proximity to project sites, we find that China’s development assistance does not increase Africans’ appreciation of China’s development model, but its cultural diplomacy does. Overall, we find that among individuals exposed to China’s development finance and cultural diplomacy, a greater awareness of China’s influence in the region does not translate into a positive assessment of this influence.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Rajapaksa government consolidated its position with new laws, special task forces, and public-sector appointments. With the opposition wiped out, Sri Lanka now has a unipolar political landscape. Two successive waves of COVID-19 infections caused a rising death toll and necessitated severe lockdowns. The resulting economic problems exposed structural weaknesses in Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic constellation, with depleting foreign exchange and an acute debt burden. These interlocking crises triggered new forms of protest and a new convergence of previously disparate societal opposition.
{"title":"Sri Lanka in 2021","authors":"B. Klem, Dinesha Samararatne","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.20","url":null,"abstract":"The Rajapaksa government consolidated its position with new laws, special task forces, and public-sector appointments. With the opposition wiped out, Sri Lanka now has a unipolar political landscape. Two successive waves of COVID-19 infections caused a rising death toll and necessitated severe lockdowns. The resulting economic problems exposed structural weaknesses in Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic constellation, with depleting foreign exchange and an acute debt burden. These interlocking crises triggered new forms of protest and a new convergence of previously disparate societal opposition.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67100165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Has trade openness made East Asian countries more or less democratic? Although numerous studies have explored the economic effects of market integration in the region, few have systematically examined the political consequences of trade liberalization. This research extends previous work by empirically investigating not only direct but also indirect links between trade globalization and democracy in East Asia. I find that the direct negative effect of trade integration on democracy is mitigated by its indirect positive impact via inequality. Empirical evidence is provided by the three-stage least squares method and pooled time-series data from 1975 to 2015 for 13 East Asian states.
{"title":"Trade Openness, Inequality, and Democracy in East Asia","authors":"Hayam Kim","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1620032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1620032","url":null,"abstract":"Has trade openness made East Asian countries more or less democratic? Although numerous studies have explored the economic effects of market integration in the region, few have systematically examined the political consequences of trade liberalization. This research extends previous work by empirically investigating not only direct but also indirect links between trade globalization and democracy in East Asia. I find that the direct negative effect of trade integration on democracy is mitigated by its indirect positive impact via inequality. Empirical evidence is provided by the three-stage least squares method and pooled time-series data from 1975 to 2015 for 13 East Asian states.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This essay addresses the strategic implications of the Russo–Ukrainian War as it pertains to relations between China and the US, especially with respect to how this conflict may inform prospective developments across the Taiwan Strait. I pursue this question under three topics: the influence of precedents, path dependency, and reasoning by analogy. The war in Ukraine has interrupted Washington’s intention to pivot to Asia to focus on containment of a rising China, and it has also caused Moscow and Beijing to align more closely. Finally, it may have made the direct military intervention of the US in a possible future crisis involving Taiwan less likely.
{"title":"Precedent, Path Dependency, and Reasoning by Analogy","authors":"S. Chan","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1789165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1789165","url":null,"abstract":"This essay addresses the strategic implications of the Russo–Ukrainian War as it pertains to relations between China and the US, especially with respect to how this conflict may inform prospective developments across the Taiwan Strait. I pursue this question under three topics: the influence of precedents, path dependency, and reasoning by analogy. The war in Ukraine has interrupted Washington’s intention to pivot to Asia to focus on containment of a rising China, and it has also caused Moscow and Beijing to align more closely. Finally, it may have made the direct military intervention of the US in a possible future crisis involving Taiwan less likely.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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