Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have indirect consequences for relations between India and China. In the near term, those consequences appear to be mixed and limited. Over the long term, however, Moscow’s strategic misadventure threatens Russia’s position as an independent power, a defense supplier to India, and a champion of non-Western diplomatic initiatives that tend to encourage more stable China–India relations. The war will also produce “systemic” effects, including altered global expectations about the prospects for major-power conflict and a resurgence of US-led treaty alliances. In combination, these war-driven outcomes are likely to accelerate the deterioration of China–India relations that was already underway before February 2022.
{"title":"From Bad to Worse","authors":"D. Markey, J. Larsen","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1804494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1804494","url":null,"abstract":"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have indirect consequences for relations between India and China. In the near term, those consequences appear to be mixed and limited. Over the long term, however, Moscow’s strategic misadventure threatens Russia’s position as an independent power, a defense supplier to India, and a champion of non-Western diplomatic initiatives that tend to encourage more stable China–India relations. The war will also produce “systemic” effects, including altered global expectations about the prospects for major-power conflict and a resurgence of US-led treaty alliances. In combination, these war-driven outcomes are likely to accelerate the deterioration of China–India relations that was already underway before February 2022.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
COVID-19 and the Party Congress dominated the headlines in Vietnam in 2021. This essay reviews the leadership changes after the Party Congress and the challenges the new leaders faced in confronting the Delta variant of COVID-19. It also considers other economic challenges that have simmered under the surface, such as its approach to securing infrastructure funding, particularly in the energy sector. It concludes by considering Vietnam’s international posture relating to the US and China.
{"title":"Vietnam in 2021","authors":"P. Schuler","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.07","url":null,"abstract":"COVID-19 and the Party Congress dominated the headlines in Vietnam in 2021. This essay reviews the leadership changes after the Party Congress and the challenges the new leaders faced in confronting the Delta variant of COVID-19. It also considers other economic challenges that have simmered under the surface, such as its approach to securing infrastructure funding, particularly in the energy sector. It concludes by considering Vietnam’s international posture relating to the US and China.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2021, Cambodia confronted the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid a surge in case numbers and total deaths, the virus brought new and profound consequences for the Southeast Asian nation. A spate of decrees, laws, and provisions provided Hun Sen’s government ways to contain the outbreak, along with an opportunity to further stifle political dissent. The economic effects of the crisis were acutely felt in the crucial tourist industry and garment sector, both of which experienced severe contraction that will be long-lasting. Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia’s foreign affairs were dominated by its friendly relationship with China, poor reputation within the United States, and pending chairmanship of ASEAN.
{"title":"Cambodia in 2021","authors":"Lee Morgenbesser","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.11","url":null,"abstract":"In 2021, Cambodia confronted the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amid a surge in case numbers and total deaths, the virus brought new and profound consequences for the Southeast Asian nation. A spate of decrees, laws, and provisions provided Hun Sen’s government ways to contain the outbreak, along with an opportunity to further stifle political dissent. The economic effects of the crisis were acutely felt in the crucial tourist industry and garment sector, both of which experienced severe contraction that will be long-lasting. Beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, Cambodia’s foreign affairs were dominated by its friendly relationship with China, poor reputation within the United States, and pending chairmanship of ASEAN.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Singapore remained in crisis mode in 2021, a situation that persisted from 2020. While COVID-19 continued to devastate various foundations of Singapore, especially the economy and public confidence in the government, a political succession crisis threw the republic deeper into uncharted territory. These developments are likely to have long-term consequences, especially for the staying power of government in what is a one-dominant-party state.
{"title":"Singapore in 2021","authors":"Bilveer Singh","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.15","url":null,"abstract":"Singapore remained in crisis mode in 2021, a situation that persisted from 2020. While COVID-19 continued to devastate various foundations of Singapore, especially the economy and public confidence in the government, a political succession crisis threw the republic deeper into uncharted territory. These developments are likely to have long-term consequences, especially for the staying power of government in what is a one-dominant-party state.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67100051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID-19 pandemic hit Nepal harder in 2021 than in the previous year, resulting in thousands dead, millions of livelihoods lost, food access constricted, educations upended, and social and economic devastation. In the midst of this, political leaders were preoccupied with power politics, leaving the country ill-equipped to manage the COVID-19 crisis. Fragile democratic institutions and norms were undermined by the inability of leaders to prioritize governance. Environmental problems, an economic downturn, and continued human rights violations further exacerbated the country’s woes.
{"title":"Nepal in 2021","authors":"Kristine Eck","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.19","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic hit Nepal harder in 2021 than in the previous year, resulting in thousands dead, millions of livelihoods lost, food access constricted, educations upended, and social and economic devastation. In the midst of this, political leaders were preoccupied with power politics, leaving the country ill-equipped to manage the COVID-19 crisis. Fragile democratic institutions and norms were undermined by the inability of leaders to prioritize governance. Environmental problems, an economic downturn, and continued human rights violations further exacerbated the country’s woes.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67100156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Russia–Pakistan relations have improved since the end of the Cold War. While that trend is likely to continue, Russia is unlikely to transform Pakistan’s difficult strategic circumstances. Russia is insufficiently wealthy to provide enough aid and investment to revitalize Pakistan’s economy. Russia is also too concerned with maintaining access to the Indian defense market to increase defense sales to Pakistan more than modestly. This article reviews what I call the constraints of geoeconomics, where the relatively small size of the Russian and Pakistani economies combines with the considerable distance between them to limit Russian–Pakistani ties despite periodic official interest in deepening them. It situates these current obstacles in the context of the historic Soviet–Pakistani relationship, which was similarly constrained by distance, great power politics, and Indian concerns.
{"title":"Russia–Pakistan Relations and the Constraints of Geoeconomics","authors":"Christopher Clary","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1801312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1801312","url":null,"abstract":"Russia–Pakistan relations have improved since the end of the Cold War. While that trend is likely to continue, Russia is unlikely to transform Pakistan’s difficult strategic circumstances. Russia is insufficiently wealthy to provide enough aid and investment to revitalize Pakistan’s economy. Russia is also too concerned with maintaining access to the Indian defense market to increase defense sales to Pakistan more than modestly. This article reviews what I call the constraints of geoeconomics, where the relatively small size of the Russian and Pakistani economies combines with the considerable distance between them to limit Russian–Pakistani ties despite periodic official interest in deepening them. It situates these current obstacles in the context of the historic Soviet–Pakistani relationship, which was similarly constrained by distance, great power politics, and Indian concerns.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The year 2021 saw unceasing power concentration in China and inside the ruling Communist Party. China persisted with a zero-COVID policy, but at considerable social and economic costs. The investigation of the origins of the pandemic triggered new sparring between China and Western countries. US–China relations continued to sour as the Biden administration kept on with most of the existing China policies and started building a new security network in the Indo-Pacific region. China tightened its control of Hong Kong’s political life, but its effort toward “complete reunification” faced strong resistance across the Taiwan Strait.
{"title":"China in 2021","authors":"Min Ye","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.02","url":null,"abstract":"The year 2021 saw unceasing power concentration in China and inside the ruling Communist Party. China persisted with a zero-COVID policy, but at considerable social and economic costs. The investigation of the origins of the pandemic triggered new sparring between China and Western countries. US–China relations continued to sour as the Biden administration kept on with most of the existing China policies and started building a new security network in the Indo-Pacific region. China tightened its control of Hong Kong’s political life, but its effort toward “complete reunification” faced strong resistance across the Taiwan Strait.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In 2021, COVID-19 spread like wildfire throughout Thailand, with the government being routinely accused of mismanagement and facing two censures in parliament as a result. The military-aligned government also faced continuing protests against its rule. As the year progressed, the protests became more violent and spread to the peripheral regions of the country. Combined with the economic impact of the pandemic on the tourist sector, cracks are beginning to appear in the multi-party coalition. Support from the armed forces may also be waning, and there have been rumors of another coup. Nevertheless, imports and exports increased throughout 2021, and the opening of the country to 63 low-risk countries in November promises to ease the pressure on the government. The Thai parliament also approved a measure to reform the electoral system back to the one used in the 1997 constitution, under which the main opposition party, Pheu Thai, performed so well. Another election seems imminent, but it remains to be seen whether the electorate responds more to the intimidation, increasing support for the government’s largest party, the military-aligned Palang Pracharat—or to the student demands for constitutional reform, increasing support for opposition parties.
{"title":"Thailand in 2021","authors":"J. Selway","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.10","url":null,"abstract":"In 2021, COVID-19 spread like wildfire throughout Thailand, with the government being routinely accused of mismanagement and facing two censures in parliament as a result. The military-aligned government also faced continuing protests against its rule. As the year progressed, the protests became more violent and spread to the peripheral regions of the country. Combined with the economic impact of the pandemic on the tourist sector, cracks are beginning to appear in the multi-party coalition. Support from the armed forces may also be waning, and there have been rumors of another coup. Nevertheless, imports and exports increased throughout 2021, and the opening of the country to 63 low-risk countries in November promises to ease the pressure on the government. The Thai parliament also approved a measure to reform the electoral system back to the one used in the 1997 constitution, under which the main opposition party, Pheu Thai, performed so well. Another election seems imminent, but it remains to be seen whether the electorate responds more to the intimidation, increasing support for the government’s largest party, the military-aligned Palang Pracharat—or to the student demands for constitutional reform, increasing support for opposition parties.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In his last year in office, populist Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte faced the deadly surge of the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic. His government continued to struggle with the health crisis despite implementing one of the most heavy-handed lockdowns in the world. In his final State of the Nation address, he trumpeted his administration’s “war on drugs” and ordered the military to hunt communist insurgents and “shoot them dead.” At the same time, he admitted that he has failed in his “war on corruption,” the second plank in his 2016 campaign platform. His admission foreshadowed the biggest corruption scandal of his administration. The Senate uncovered evidence of financial misuse, particularly for supplies from Pharmally Pharmaceutical, a business formed just months before securing billions of pesos in government supply contracts. The controversy has eroded Duterte’s popularity ratings, but he has retained high enough numbers to leverage political support in the upcoming 2022 presidential election and deflect impending International Criminal Court prosecution for his bloody drug war.
{"title":"The Philippines in 2021","authors":"J. Teehankee","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.12","url":null,"abstract":"In his last year in office, populist Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte faced the deadly surge of the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic. His government continued to struggle with the health crisis despite implementing one of the most heavy-handed lockdowns in the world. In his final State of the Nation address, he trumpeted his administration’s “war on drugs” and ordered the military to hunt communist insurgents and “shoot them dead.” At the same time, he admitted that he has failed in his “war on corruption,” the second plank in his 2016 campaign platform. His admission foreshadowed the biggest corruption scandal of his administration. The Senate uncovered evidence of financial misuse, particularly for supplies from Pharmally Pharmaceutical, a business formed just months before securing billions of pesos in government supply contracts. The controversy has eroded Duterte’s popularity ratings, but he has retained high enough numbers to leverage political support in the upcoming 2022 presidential election and deflect impending International Criminal Court prosecution for his bloody drug war.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a weakening of the formal economy and a crisis of the informal economy in Laos. The population has responded with a partial return to subsistence farming, which almost the entire rural population had been engaged in anyway. The return to subsistence farming was accompanied by a revival of the subsistence ethic, which is compatible neither with Stalinist socialism nor with capitalism. In the current configuration, the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party is in a position to take advantage of this revival, since it seems to support a communitarian morality, anti-capitalism, and self-sufficiency, which the socialist rhetoric of recent years has been propagating. The socialist rhetoric as well as the leadership of the LPRP were reconfirmed by its national congress in January. Social, political, and economic forces seem to complement each other to a larger degree than in the first two decades of the century.
{"title":"Laos in 2021","authors":"B. Rehbein","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.14","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a weakening of the formal economy and a crisis of the informal economy in Laos. The population has responded with a partial return to subsistence farming, which almost the entire rural population had been engaged in anyway. The return to subsistence farming was accompanied by a revival of the subsistence ethic, which is compatible neither with Stalinist socialism nor with capitalism. In the current configuration, the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party is in a position to take advantage of this revival, since it seems to support a communitarian morality, anti-capitalism, and self-sufficiency, which the socialist rhetoric of recent years has been propagating. The socialist rhetoric as well as the leadership of the LPRP were reconfirmed by its national congress in January. Social, political, and economic forces seem to complement each other to a larger degree than in the first two decades of the century.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67100044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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