T. A. Neyazi, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Sourabh B. Paul
How does economic hardship during a crisis affect people’s evaluation of the political leadership? In this paper, we investigate how the negative impact of an exogenous event like COVID-19 interacts with other important phenomena which influence leadership approval, such as partisanship, political trust, and satisfaction with democracy. Using a nationally representative survey in Indonesia (N = 1,200), we show that economic hardship does not uniformly undermine leadership approval; rather, this effect is moderated by partisanship and by satisfaction with the functioning of democracy. Of the people who voted for President Jokowi in the 2019 election, those who faced economic hardship gave him lower levels of approval than those who were better-off. At the same time, those satisfied with the functioning of democracy in the country reported higher approval even if they faced economic hardship. We discuss the policy implications of our findings and provide a theoretical framework for the mechanisms that affect leadership approval during a crisis.
{"title":"Political Trust, Democratic Satisfaction, and Partisanship","authors":"T. A. Neyazi, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Sourabh B. Paul","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1651118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1651118","url":null,"abstract":"How does economic hardship during a crisis affect people’s evaluation of the political leadership? In this paper, we investigate how the negative impact of an exogenous event like COVID-19 interacts with other important phenomena which influence leadership approval, such as partisanship, political trust, and satisfaction with democracy. Using a nationally representative survey in Indonesia (N = 1,200), we show that economic hardship does not uniformly undermine leadership approval; rather, this effect is moderated by partisanship and by satisfaction with the functioning of democracy. Of the people who voted for President Jokowi in the 2019 election, those who faced economic hardship gave him lower levels of approval than those who were better-off. At the same time, those satisfied with the functioning of democracy in the country reported higher approval even if they faced economic hardship. We discuss the policy implications of our findings and provide a theoretical framework for the mechanisms that affect leadership approval during a crisis.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Scholars who study governance in authoritarian countries have long highlighted the importance of fiscal capacity and pressure from the central government in determining the responsiveness and policy changes of subnational governments. However, policy orientation is also important in shaping how subnational governments react to a crisis. Using provincial governments’ responses during the 2018 Chinese vaccine scandal, I find strong evidence that an emphasis on public health, as well as early responses by neighboring provinces, increased the likelihood of a quick response. Moreover, issue salience minimized the direct effect of pressure from the national government. An additional paired case study of the provinces of Hubei and Hunan shows that the importance accorded by the provincial government to public health policy was implemented at the sub-provincial level through China’s one-level-down cadre management system; it also may explain Hubei’s delay in responding to COVID-19 at an early stage.
{"title":"Determinants of Chinese Provincial Governments’ Responses to the 2018 Vaccine Scandal","authors":"Yuehong Cassandra Tai","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1693011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1693011","url":null,"abstract":"Scholars who study governance in authoritarian countries have long highlighted the importance of fiscal capacity and pressure from the central government in determining the responsiveness and policy changes of subnational governments. However, policy orientation is also important in shaping how subnational governments react to a crisis. Using provincial governments’ responses during the 2018 Chinese vaccine scandal, I find strong evidence that an emphasis on public health, as well as early responses by neighboring provinces, increased the likelihood of a quick response. Moreover, issue salience minimized the direct effect of pressure from the national government. An additional paired case study of the provinces of Hubei and Hunan shows that the importance accorded by the provincial government to public health policy was implemented at the sub-provincial level through China’s one-level-down cadre management system; it also may explain Hubei’s delay in responding to COVID-19 at an early stage.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many studies have been conducted about the presidential coattail effect in presidential democracies, but few have considered multiparty presidential elections. These few studies find that the effect does exist in multiparty presidential elections but their effect is unevenly distributed among the members of the party coalitions that nominate the presidential candidate. We follow these theoretical insights by presenting the case of Indonesia, the world’s largest multiparty presidential democracy. Using election result data and national survey data, including experimental surveys, we find that in Indonesia the size and direction of the presidential coattail effect depend on whether the party is a core or peripheral member of the coalition, its role in the coalition, and its size.
{"title":"The Coattail Effect in Multiparty Presidential Elections","authors":"Djayadi Hanan, D. Irvani","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1501924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1501924","url":null,"abstract":"Many studies have been conducted about the presidential coattail effect in presidential democracies, but few have considered multiparty presidential elections. These few studies find that the effect does exist in multiparty presidential elections but their effect is unevenly distributed among the members of the party coalitions that nominate the presidential candidate. We follow these theoretical insights by presenting the case of Indonesia, the world’s largest multiparty presidential democracy. Using election result data and national survey data, including experimental surveys, we find that in Indonesia the size and direction of the presidential coattail effect depend on whether the party is a core or peripheral member of the coalition, its role in the coalition, and its size.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67100010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Current scholarship on marketization from below in North Korea emphasizes the increased influence of private actors, and portrays this process as eroding state control. While these accounts are largely accurate, they risk overlooking significant policy responses on the part of North Korea’s leadership. Over the course of the past decade, the regime under Kim Jong Un has actively pursued a political-economic model that attempts to institutionalize market activity under strengthened party-state political control. In doing so, the DPRK is hewing toward a model of “market Leninism” or “party-state capitalism” akin to that pursued by contemporary China and Vietnam, rather than that of the Soviet Union or Eastern Europe. By placing North Korea’s political economy in this framework, we can better understand the two key imperatives that have characterized Kim Jong Un’s rule: institutionalization of market mechanisms and strengthened political control.
{"title":"Toward Market Leninism in North Korea","authors":"S. Greitens, Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1541999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1541999","url":null,"abstract":"Current scholarship on marketization from below in North Korea emphasizes the increased influence of private actors, and portrays this process as eroding state control. While these accounts are largely accurate, they risk overlooking significant policy responses on the part of North Korea’s leadership. Over the course of the past decade, the regime under Kim Jong Un has actively pursued a political-economic model that attempts to institutionalize market activity under strengthened party-state political control. In doing so, the DPRK is hewing toward a model of “market Leninism” or “party-state capitalism” akin to that pursued by contemporary China and Vietnam, rather than that of the Soviet Union or Eastern Europe. By placing North Korea’s political economy in this framework, we can better understand the two key imperatives that have characterized Kim Jong Un’s rule: institutionalization of market mechanisms and strengthened political control.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the associations between democratic performance, secular–traditional value orientation, and satisfaction with democracy in India and Pakistan through the lens of democratic performance and modernization theory. In an analysis of data from the 2012 World Values Survey, respect for human rights (one of two measures of democratic performance) has a stronger effect on satisfaction with democracy in India than in Pakistan. Freedom of choice influenced satisfaction with democracy only in India. Rather than having a direct effect, secular–traditional value orientation moderates the relationship between freedom of choice and satisfaction with democracy.
{"title":"Democratic Performance, Secular–Traditional Value Orientation, and Satisfaction with Democracy in India and Pakistan","authors":"Bilal Hassan","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1808123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1808123","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the associations between democratic performance, secular–traditional value orientation, and satisfaction with democracy in India and Pakistan through the lens of democratic performance and modernization theory. In an analysis of data from the 2012 World Values Survey, respect for human rights (one of two measures of democratic performance) has a stronger effect on satisfaction with democracy in India than in Pakistan. Freedom of choice influenced satisfaction with democracy only in India. Rather than having a direct effect, secular–traditional value orientation moderates the relationship between freedom of choice and satisfaction with democracy.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Parliament did not have a chance to convene under the newly elected National League for Democracy administration. Before the first parliamentary session was to take place in early February, the military detained the leaders of the incoming administration and took control of the executive. It justified its actions by saying elections in November 2020 were fraudulent and the Union Election Commission had refused to investigate possible irregularities in the vote. Although the military said new elections would be held within two years, its rule might not be temporary.
{"title":"Myanmar in 2021","authors":"Marie-Eve Reny","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.13","url":null,"abstract":"Parliament did not have a chance to convene under the newly elected National League for Democracy administration. Before the first parliamentary session was to take place in early February, the military detained the leaders of the incoming administration and took control of the executive. It justified its actions by saying elections in November 2020 were fraudulent and the Union Election Commission had refused to investigate possible irregularities in the vote. Although the military said new elections would be held within two years, its rule might not be temporary.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67100024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the anti-corruption movement initiated by Kim Jong Un, focusing on the increased rent-seeking competition between the elite and the middle class as market mechanisms have developed in North Korea. I examine two hypotheses regarding this program. First, it is focused on constraining the influence gained by the elite through power–money collusion to maintain regime stability. Second, it aims to support decentralizing economic reforms and the direction of production surplus into state finances, to secure state revenue. In substantiating these hypotheses, I argue that the movement is driven by the goal of capitalizing on the benefits of the market without compromising regime security, by regulating “competitive rent-seeking” between the elite and the middle class.
{"title":"Elite–Middle Class Competition for Rent-Seeking in North Korea and Kim Jong Un’s Anti-Corruption Movement","authors":"Suehyun Jung","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1553701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1553701","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the anti-corruption movement initiated by Kim Jong Un, focusing on the increased rent-seeking competition between the elite and the middle class as market mechanisms have developed in North Korea. I examine two hypotheses regarding this program. First, it is focused on constraining the influence gained by the elite through power–money collusion to maintain regime stability. Second, it aims to support decentralizing economic reforms and the direction of production surplus into state finances, to secure state revenue. In substantiating these hypotheses, I argue that the movement is driven by the goal of capitalizing on the benefits of the market without compromising regime security, by regulating “competitive rent-seeking” between the elite and the middle class.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the impact of income inequality on political participation in Asia. Both conventional conflict theory and relative power theory suggest that inequality affects political participation, but they predict opposite directions. In this paper, I argue that the effects of inequality on participation depend on the type of political action: radical or institutional. To substantiate this claim, I analyze four Asian Barometer Survey waves from 2001 to 2014. Using nested models, I find that the effect of income inequality is conditional: it is positively associated with violent activities; has no significant correlation with less radical forms of protest; and is negatively associated with institutional actions, namely voting and persuading others to vote. While the effect does not depend on income level, regime type matters for certain activities. Political capacity, the perception of powerlessness, and trust in government are other potential factors in the relationship.
{"title":"Income Inequality and Political Participation in Asia","authors":"Mathew Y. H. Wong","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1629072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1629072","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the impact of income inequality on political participation in Asia. Both conventional conflict theory and relative power theory suggest that inequality affects political participation, but they predict opposite directions. In this paper, I argue that the effects of inequality on participation depend on the type of political action: radical or institutional. To substantiate this claim, I analyze four Asian Barometer Survey waves from 2001 to 2014. Using nested models, I find that the effect of income inequality is conditional: it is positively associated with violent activities; has no significant correlation with less radical forms of protest; and is negatively associated with institutional actions, namely voting and persuading others to vote. While the effect does not depend on income level, regime type matters for certain activities. Political capacity, the perception of powerlessness, and trust in government are other potential factors in the relationship.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines Myanmar ethnic minorities’ diverse responses to the 2021 military coup. The coup prompted widespread mobilization for a national alliance that aims to replace the junta with a federal democracy. For minority actors this resistance could offer a unique opportunity to advance their demands for political autonomy, yet their responses diverged. Some joined the alliance; others declined, or accepted junta offers. Based on original interviews, this analysis unpacks the positions of ethnic rebels, civil society organizations, and parties. It suggests rebels’ strategies were influenced by their relations with civil society and military strength. Most ethnic parties avoided resistance, as they feared junta retaliation and distrusted the ousted National League for Democracy. Ethnic civil society organizations played a key coordinating role during alliance formation, enabled by its campaign experience and networks. The article’s insights into interethnic cooperation and minorities’ varied situations can benefit international actors seeking resolutions of Myanmar’s post-coup conflict.
{"title":"Joining the Spring Revolution or Charting Their Own Path?","authors":"Paul Vrieze","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.1717596","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.1717596","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines Myanmar ethnic minorities’ diverse responses to the 2021 military coup. The coup prompted widespread mobilization for a national alliance that aims to replace the junta with a federal democracy. For minority actors this resistance could offer a unique opportunity to advance their demands for political autonomy, yet their responses diverged. Some joined the alliance; others declined, or accepted junta offers. Based on original interviews, this analysis unpacks the positions of ethnic rebels, civil society organizations, and parties. It suggests rebels’ strategies were influenced by their relations with civil society and military strength. Most ethnic parties avoided resistance, as they feared junta retaliation and distrusted the ousted National League for Democracy. Ethnic civil society organizations played a key coordinating role during alliance formation, enabled by its campaign experience and networks. The article’s insights into interethnic cooperation and minorities’ varied situations can benefit international actors seeking resolutions of Myanmar’s post-coup conflict.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For Japan in 2021, COVID-19-related disruption was again the dominant storyline. Its impact transcended societal consequences to affect Japan’s economy, politics, and foreign affairs. It frustrated Japan’s economic recovery and, for the second time in as many years, contributed to a prime minister’s premature resignation. Yet the year also witnessed major positive developments, including the “2020” Tokyo Olympics/Paralympics; an (eventually) successful vaccine rollout; public health outcomes vastly better than those of any other G7 member; an expected return to economic growth; and a smooth national election. On October 31, new prime minister Kishida Fumio led the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition into Japan’s first general election since 2017. Despite losing a few seats, it retained a comfortable lower-house majority, ensuring that a subplot for Japan in 2021 was—again—relative continuity in national politics and foreign affairs.
{"title":"Japan in 2021","authors":"Adam P. Liff","doi":"10.1525/as.2022.62.1.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2022.62.1.03","url":null,"abstract":"For Japan in 2021, COVID-19-related disruption was again the dominant storyline. Its impact transcended societal consequences to affect Japan’s economy, politics, and foreign affairs. It frustrated Japan’s economic recovery and, for the second time in as many years, contributed to a prime minister’s premature resignation. Yet the year also witnessed major positive developments, including the “2020” Tokyo Olympics/Paralympics; an (eventually) successful vaccine rollout; public health outcomes vastly better than those of any other G7 member; an expected return to economic growth; and a smooth national election. On October 31, new prime minister Kishida Fumio led the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition into Japan’s first general election since 2017. Despite losing a few seats, it retained a comfortable lower-house majority, ensuring that a subplot for Japan in 2021 was—again—relative continuity in national politics and foreign affairs.","PeriodicalId":47691,"journal":{"name":"Asian Survey","volume":"494 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67099815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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