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Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Do multinational enterprises’ overseas investment activities promote their green transition performance? Evidence from Chinese listed companies 跨国企业的海外投资活动会促进其绿色转型绩效吗?来自中国上市公司的证据
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.007
Wenyue Zhang , Chuanwang Sun

Enterprises, including multinational ones, play a crucial role in harmonizing economic growth with environmental conservation through green transition efforts. Based on a panel dataset of 1,916 publicly listed Chinese companies, this study investigates how overseas investment activities conducted by multinational enterprises (MNEs) influence their green transition performance. We find that the increase in overseas investment significantly contributes to MNEs’ transition toward greener practices, with this positive effect being particularly pronounced in greenfield investments. Mechanism analysis suggests that overseas investment benefits the green transition performance of MNEs through competitive effects, economies of scale, and profit feedback from overseas subsidiaries. Moreover, reverse technology spillovers derived from overseas investments are effective in promoting MNEs’ greening, an effect amplified when MNEs possess a higher technology absorptive capacity or operate in flexible intellectual property protection.

企业,包括跨国企业,在通过绿色转型努力协调经济增长与环境保护方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究基于 1916 家中国上市公司的面板数据集,探讨了跨国企业的海外投资活动如何影响其绿色转型绩效。我们发现,海外投资的增加显著促进了跨国企业向绿色转型,这种积极影响在绿地投资中尤为明显。机制分析表明,海外投资通过竞争效应、规模经济和海外子公司的利润反馈,有利于多国企业的绿色转型绩效。此外,海外投资产生的反向技术溢出效应也能有效促进跨国企业的绿色转型,当跨国企业拥有较高的技术吸收能力或在灵活的知识产权保护下运营时,这种效应会被放大。
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引用次数: 0
Threatening the Poor? The economic impacts of carbon border adjustment mechanism on developing countries 威胁穷人?碳边界调整机制对发展中国家的经济影响
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.005
Boqiang Lin, Hengsong Zhao

It is highly necessary to conduct a more detailed assessment of the economic impacts caused by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), especially for numerous developing countries. This study utilizes the input-output (IO) model to evaluate the inequality consequence of CBAM. Results indicate that 1) the overall impact of output decline and production cost increase on non-OECD countries is greater than that on OECD countries; 2) regionally, African countries experience a more severe output decline, while Asian countries see a higher increase in production costs. Apart from BRICS, other developing countries demonstrate low reduction efficiency; 3) a refund mechanism based on historical emission responsibility results in larger benefits for the LDCs. Conversely, green innovation contribution and emission reduction efforts primarily benefit developed economies and large developing countries. We recommend 1) prioritizing assessments for developing countries before designing cross-border climate policy; 2) considering both fairness and efficiency when designing a refund mechanism.

非常有必要对碳边境调整机制(CBAM)造成的经济影响进行更详细的评估,尤其是对众多发展中国家而言。本研究利用投入产出(IO)模型来评估碳边境调整机制造成的不平等后果。结果表明:1)产出下降和生产成本上升对非经合组织国家的总体影响大于对经合组织国家的影响;2)从地区来看,非洲国家的产出下降更为严重,而亚洲国家的生产成本上升更高。除金砖国家外,其他发展中国家的减排效率较低;3)基于历史排放责任的退税机制为最不发达国家带来了更大的收益。相反,绿色创新贡献和减排努力主要惠及发达经济体和发展中大国。我们建议:1)在设计跨境气候政策之前,优先对发展中国家进行评估;2)在设计退税机制时,同时考虑公平和效率。
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引用次数: 0
Tracing changes in manufacturing-related carbon emissions: A structural decomposition analysis from the perspective of China 追踪制造业相关碳排放的变化:从中国的角度进行结构分解分析
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.003
Quanxi Yuan , Qingchun Wang , Meichen Zhang

This study analyzed changes in the carbon emissions of China's top five trading partners using a structural decomposition model based on inter-country input-output analysis. The main influencing factors were analyzed using constant price input-output tables for 2007, 2012, 2017, and 2021. Changes in the carbon emissions of the trading partner economies during 2007–2021 were decomposed into 15 essential factors to investigate the impacts of intermediate and final demands, and then isolate the influence of intermediate and final demands of China. The results revealed the following: (i) Carbon emissions in the developed economies experienced decline followed by increase after the Covid-19 pandemic, whereas ASEAN economies experienced steady increase in carbon emissions. (ii) Carbon intensity was one of the most important factors affecting carbon emissions. (iii) The size of China's expanding final demand contributed to an increase in carbon emissions in the primary and natural resources industry, capital-intensive manufacturing industry, and knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry.

本研究利用基于国家间投入产出分析的结构分解模型,分析了中国五大贸易伙伴的碳排放量变化。利用 2007 年、2012 年、2017 年和 2021 年的不变价格投入产出表分析了主要影响因素。将 2007-2021 年贸易伙伴经济体的碳排放量变化分解为 15 个基本因素,研究中间需求和最终需求的影响,然后分离出中国中间需求和最终需求的影响。结果如下(i) 发达经济体的碳排放量在 Covid-19 大流行后先降后升,而东盟经济体的碳排放量则稳步上升。(ii) 碳强度是影响碳排放的最重要因素之一。(iii) 中国不断扩大的最终需求规模导致初级和自然资源产业、资本密集型制造 业和知识密集型制造业的碳排放量增加。
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引用次数: 0
How could we benefit from a low-carbon economy? Evidence from Chinese regional labor markets 我们如何从低碳经济中获益?来自中国区域劳动力市场的证据
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.09.001
Chuanhui Wei , Yongji Zhang , Minghui Lan , Zhi Su , Heran Du , Ke Wang

Existing studies on the employment effects of a low-carbon economy predominantly focus on sectoral dynamics instead of regions, providing limited references for prefectural policymaking. We address this gap by employing a fixed effects model and a dataset of Chinese cities from 2006 to 2020. Our findings highlight the significant contribution of a low-carbon economy to regional employment through the industry agglomeration effect and innovation effect. Heterogeneities are evident in the employment-promoting influence of a low-carbon economy, as cities with lenient environment enforcement, ample education investment, and non-resource-dependent structures benefit more significantly. Notably, a low-carbon economy exhibits a disproportionately higher employment promotion effect in cities with mid-range employment populations. In addition, we identify co-benefits of a low-carbon economy, including higher average salaries and mitigation of aging trends. These insights foster a better understanding of the low-carbon economy and offer valuable guidance for prefectural governments seeking to develop targeted low-carbon economy strategies.

现有关于低碳经济对就业影响的研究主要关注部门动态而非地区动态,这为地级市的政策制定提供了有限的参考。我们采用固定效应模型和 2006 年至 2020 年中国城市数据集弥补了这一不足。我们的研究结果凸显了低碳经济通过产业集聚效应和创新效应对地区就业的重大贡献。低碳经济对就业的促进作用存在明显的异质性,环境执法宽松、教育投资充足、非资源依赖型结构的城市受益更明显。值得注意的是,低碳经济对中等就业人口城市的就业促进作用更大。此外,我们还发现了低碳经济的共同效益,包括提高平均工资和缓解老龄化趋势。这些见解有助于人们更好地理解低碳经济,并为都道府县政府制定有针对性的低碳经济战略提供了宝贵的指导。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural tax reform, capital investment, and structural transformation in China 中国的农业税改革、资本投资和结构转型
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.016
Rui Li, Huiting Yang, Jun Zhang

Identifying the driving forces of structural transformation is crucial for understanding economic development. In the early 21st century, China experienced a rapid labor shift from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors. This shift is often attributed to the industrial sector’s “pull” force, while the agricultural sector’s “push” force remains less understood. This paper investigates the role of the Agricultural Tax Exemption (ATE) reform in promoting inter-sectoral labor reallocation in China, which ended over two millennia of agricultural taxation on farmers. Our results show that the introduction of the ATE reform contributed to a significant increase in the share of non-agricultural workers. Mechanism analysis reveals that this reform encouraged capital investment among farmers and improved agricultural productivity, consequently displacing surplus agricultural workers. Further analysis shows that the labor reallocation induced by the reform had significantly increased employment and output within the secondary sector, although its effect on the tertiary sector was relatively minimal.

确定结构转型的驱动力对于理解经济发展至关重要。21 世纪初,中国经历了劳动力从农业部门向非农业部门的快速转移。这种转移通常被归因于工业部门的 "拉 "的力量,而农业部门的 "推 "的力量仍然鲜为人知。免征农业税改革结束了中国两千多年来对农民征收农业税的历史,本文研究了免征农业税改革在促进中国劳动力跨部门重新配置中的作用。我们的研究结果表明,免征农业税改革的推行显著增加了非农业劳动力的比例。机制分析表明,这项改革鼓励了农民的资本投资,提高了农业生产率,从而取代了过剩的农业工人。进一步的分析表明,改革引起的劳动力重新配置显著增加了第二产业的就业和产出,但对第三产业的影响相对较小。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. An analysis for the Italian regions 衰退和扩张中的财政乘数。对意大利各地区的分析
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.012
Gianluigi Coppola, Sergio Destefanis, Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta

This paper estimates the multipliers of two types of government spending in the 20 Italian administrative regions throughout 1960–2017, distinguishing between phases of expansion and recession. We derive regime- and region-specific multipliers through a nonlinear Bayesian heterogeneous panel threshold VAR model and provide a wide-ranging sensitivity analysis. We find that both government consumption and government investment multipliers are higher in recession than in expansion. In almost every region, government investment multipliers exceed unity in recession phases and are generally higher than their government consumption counterparts regardless of the business cycle. An exploratory analysis of the region-specific multipliers suggests that the difference between the region-specific multipliers in recession and expansion is positively associated with structural labour slack and negatively associated with trade openness. Factors related to the quality of local institutions, such as corruption and the relative size of the informal economy, also have a negative impact.

本文估算了 1960-2017 年间意大利 20 个行政区两类政府支出的乘数,并对扩张和衰退阶段进行了区分。我们通过非线性贝叶斯异质性面板阈值 VAR 模型得出了特定制度和地区的乘数,并提供了广泛的敏感性分析。我们发现,政府消费和政府投资乘数在衰退期均高于扩张期。几乎在每个地区,政府投资乘数在衰退阶段都超过了统一值,而且无论商业周期如何,政府投资乘数一般都高于政府消费乘数。对特定地区乘数的探索性分析表明,衰退期和扩张期特定地区乘数之间的差异与劳动力结构性松弛呈正相关,与贸易开放度呈负相关。与地方机构质量有关的因素,如腐败和非正规经济的相对规模,也会产生负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal evolution pattern and heterogeneity of resource-based city resilience in China 中国资源型城市复原力的时空演化模式与异质性
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.013
Miao He , Wei Xiao , Lingling Zhao , Yuanlu Xu

Resource-based cities (RBCs) encompass the east, middle, and west of China, covering an important economic hinterland. The improvement of RBC resilience can significantly impact the overall resilience of cities in China. This study analyzes the spatial characteristics and overall evolution trend of four types of RBCs based on regional differences and convergence theory. The results vivid showed sustainable development positively influenced growing-type RBCs also showed that the overall RBC resilience coupling coordination degree improved throughout the study period (2009–2019), and that the evolution of RBC resilience demonstrated good convergence characteristics. Furthermore, a distinct gap is evident between high resilience-level growing RBCs and relatively low-level regenerative RBCs. All RBCs will eventually converge to the third level with a higher level of coupling coordination. However, compared with the traditional Markov chain, the transition probability of the spatial Markov chain is reduced due to the influence of surrounding cities. Thus, policies are given.

资源型城市(RBCs)分布在中国的东、中、西部,覆盖着重要的经济腹地。提高资源型城市的抗灾能力可以显著影响中国城市的整体抗灾能力。本研究基于区域差异和趋同理论,分析了四类区域性中心城市的空间特征和整体演化趋势。结果表明,在整个研究期间(2009-2019 年),可持续发展对增长型区域生物多样性中心产生了积极影响,区域生物多样性中心整体韧性耦合协调度有所提高,区域生物多样性中心韧性演化呈现出良好的收敛性特征。此外,高复原力水平的生长型 RBC 与相对低水平的再生型 RBC 之间存在明显差距。所有 RBC 最终都将收敛到耦合协调水平更高的第三级。然而,与传统的马尔可夫链相比,空间马尔可夫链的过渡概率会因周边城市的影响而降低。因此,需要给出政策。
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引用次数: 0
Regional judicial capacity and corporate total factor productivity: Evidence from the establishment of circuit courts 地区司法能力与企业全要素生产率:建立巡回法院的证据
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.014
Xubing Fang , Maotao Liu

The strategic importance of total factor productivity (TFP) in the high-quality development phase of enterprises is increasingly prominent, and understanding the impact of regional judicial capacity on corporate TFP is crucial. We treat the establishment of Circuit Courts as a quasi-natural experiment for regional judicial capacity and construct the staggered difference-in-differences model to examine how regional judicial capacity affects corporate TFP. We find that the establishment of Circuit Courts significantly enhances corporate TFP. Mechanism tests show that the establishment of Circuit Courts improves the macro-level market competition environment, legal environment, and contractual environment, enhances micro-level resource allocation efficiency, strengthens innovation capacity, reduces bribery expenses, eases financing constraints, and promotes specialized division of labor, thereby improving corporate TFP. The positive effects of Circuit Courts are more pronounced among firms in regions with higher levels of local protection and administrative intervention, lower levels of intellectual property judicial protection, weaker product market competition intensity, and among non-state-owned enterprises without political connections. Our results remain robust after a series of robustness and endogenous tests. Overall, this study not only reveals the important role of judicial capacity enhancement on enterprise development, but also provides evidence support for deepening the reform of the judicial system and improving the Circuit Courts system.

全要素生产率(TFP)在企业高质量发展阶段的战略重要性日益凸显,了解地区司法能力对企业全要素生产率的影响至关重要。我们将巡回法院的设立视为区域司法能力的准自然实验,并构建了交错差分模型来研究区域司法能力如何影响企业全要素生产率。我们发现,巡回法院的设立显著提高了企业全要素生产率。机制检验表明,巡回法院的设立改善了宏观层面的市场竞争环境、法律环境和契约环境,提高了微观层面的资源配置效率,增强了创新能力,减少了贿赂支出,缓解了融资约束,促进了专业化分工,从而提高了企业全要素生产率。在地方保护和行政干预程度较高、知识产权司法保护水平较低、产品市场竞争强度较弱的地区,以及没有政治关系的非国有企业中,巡回法院的积极效应更为明显。经过一系列稳健性和内生性检验,我们的结果仍然是稳健的。总之,本研究不仅揭示了司法能力提升对企业发展的重要作用,也为深化司法体制改革、完善巡回法庭制度提供了证据支持。
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引用次数: 0
Airport construction and entrepreneurship: Evidence from the newly registered company 机场建设与创业精神:来自新注册公司的证据
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.011
Wenbin Zuo , Fanglin Chen

We use a staggered difference-in-differences model to empirically investigate the relationship between airports and entrepreneurship, based on county airport data and the number of newly registered companies in China. The data has advantages in the long sample research framework from 2000 to 2019. We find that counties with airports have 14 more entrepreneurial opportunities per 10,000 people compared to samples without airports. The main conclusions still hold after conducting various robustness checks. We also find that airports have a spillover effect on entrepreneurship. A county without an airport still has higher entrepreneurship if there are more airports in the surrounding county-level city or province. Heterogeneity analysis shows that airports boost entrepreneurship more in service industries and other tertiary sectors. The effect is strongest in poorer regions and private firms and knowledge-intensive areas benefit more from airports for entrepreneurship. Finally, we find that airports increase entrepreneurial activity in a region by bringing in foreign investment, improving innovation, and upgrading industries.

我们基于中国县域机场数据和新注册公司数量,采用交错差分模型对机场与创业之间的关系进行了实证研究。数据在 2000 年至 2019 年的长样本研究框架中具有优势。我们发现,与没有机场的样本相比,有机场的县每万人多 14 个创业机会。在进行各种稳健性检验后,主要结论仍然成立。我们还发现,机场对创业具有溢出效应。如果周边县级市或省份有更多机场,那么没有机场的县仍有更高的创业率。异质性分析表明,机场对服务业和其他第三产业创业的促进作用更大。这种效应在贫困地区最强,私营企业和知识密集型地区从机场创业中获益更多。最后,我们发现机场通过引进外资、提高创新能力和产业升级来增加地区的创业活动。
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引用次数: 0
Network structure of the economy and the propagation of monetary shocks: The case of Russia 经济网络结构与货币冲击的传播:俄罗斯案例
IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.08.006
Elena Deryugina , Andrey Leonidov , Alexey Ponomarenko , Stanislav Radionov , Ekaterina Vasilyeva

We calibrate a network model and monetary shocks based on empirical data from input-output tables for the Russian economy. We examine various aspects of the propagation of monetary shocks, such as the dispersion of relative prices and the local peak values of the aggregated price index achieved during the convergence to the new equilibrium. We show that these developments depend significantly on the way new money is injected into the economy.

我们根据俄罗斯经济投入产出表中的经验数据,对网络模型和货币冲击进行了校准。我们研究了货币冲击传播的各个方面,如相对价格的离散性以及在向新均衡收敛过程中综合价格指数达到的局部峰值。我们表明,这些发展在很大程度上取决于向经济注入新货币的方式。
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引用次数: 0
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Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
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