Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Towards technology-convergent cities: How does the low-carbon economy contribute? 迈向技术融合型城市：低碳经济有何贡献？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.005

Henglong Zhang , Yeheng Zhang , Yongwei Yu , Liming Ge

This paper tests whether dual-purpose policy promotes digital–green technology convergence (DGTC) by expanding domain-specific technological stocks within a policy impetus–technological accumulation–technological convergence framework. We evaluate this mechanism in the context of China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCCP). Using a city–year panel of 264 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2008–2023, DGTC is measured with two classic patent-based indicators—co-classification and cross-domain direct citation. The mediating mechanism is captured as digital and green technology accumulation through patent stocks and counts of innovating entities in both domains. Heterogeneity is examined with respect to policy implementation conditions, focusing on city endowments and the digital–green ecosystem. The empirical results show that the LCCP significantly increases DGTC, with consistent effects across both indicators and robust to multiple checks. Mediation analyses indicate that the LCCP raises digital and green accumulation, with stronger effects on the digital side and similar but milder effects on the green side. Heterogeneity tests reveal stronger effects in eastern and mega/large cities, as well as in contexts where intellectual property protection is tighter, network infrastructure more advanced, and government or public attention to green goals higher. Taken together, the study reaffirms that policy is an important driver of technological convergence. Using a nationwide, long-span city-level dataset, it constructs and validates two co-primary city-level DGTC measures with novel scope and comprehensive urban coverage, providing actionable evidence for designing and implementing context-specific policy portfolios.

本文在政策推动-技术积累-技术融合的框架下，通过扩大特定领域的技术存量来检验双重目的政策是否促进了数字绿色技术融合。我们在中国低碳城市试点（LCCP）的背景下对这一机制进行了评估。利用2008-2023年中国264个地级市的城市年面板，采用协同分类和跨领域直接引用两个经典的基于专利的指标来衡量DGTC。中介机制是通过专利存量和创新实体数量在这两个领域的数字和绿色技术积累。研究了政策实施条件的异质性，重点关注城市禀赋和数字绿色生态系统。实证结果表明，LCCP显著增加了DGTC，在两个指标上都具有一致的效果，并且对多重检验具有鲁棒性。中介分析表明，LCCP提高了数字和绿色积累，对数字侧的影响更强，对绿色侧的影响相似但较温和。异质性测试显示，在东部和特大城市，以及在知识产权保护更严格、网络基础设施更先进、政府或公众对绿色目标关注程度更高的背景下，影响更大。综上所述，该研究重申，政策是技术融合的重要驱动力。利用全国范围的大跨度城市数据集，构建并验证了两项具有新颖范围和全面城市覆盖范围的协同主要城市级DGTC措施，为设计和实施针对具体情况的政策组合提供了可操作的证据。

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引用次数: 0

Public data, market competition and resource misallocation 公开数据、市场竞争和资源错配

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.006

Xiaolong He , Zhuangxiong Yu , Yufan Liang

This paper studies how public data platforms affect city-level capital–labor allocation. Using panel data for 280 prefecture-level cities from 2008–2022, we exploit their staggered rollout in a difference-in-differences design treating platform launches as content-side information shocks. We find that platform adoption reduces city-level factor misallocation by roughly 23 percent relative to the pre-reform mean. The results are robust across specifications and to addressing endogeneity concerns. Further, results from the mechanism analysis indicate that platform adoption reduces misallocation via market-competition channels, including greater firm entry, deeper venture capital investment, and larger international trade volumes. Moreover, the impact is stronger in cities with less administrative fragmentation, greater dialect diversity, or more rugged terrain. Finally, spatial-econometric models indicate positive spillovers to neighboring cities, suggesting cross-city diffusion of information and practices. Overall, the findings suggest that public data platform acts as a low-distortion policy tool to improve urban factor allocation.

本文研究了公共数据平台对城市资本劳动力配置的影响。利用2008年至2022年280个地级市的面板数据，我们采用差异中的差异设计，将平台发布视为内容侧信息冲击，利用它们的交错推出。我们发现，与改革前的平均值相比，平台的采用将城市层面的要素错配减少了大约23%。结果在规范和解决内生性问题方面是健壮的。此外，机制分析的结果表明，平台的采用减少了通过市场竞争渠道的错配，包括更多的企业进入、更深的风险投资和更大的国际贸易量。此外，在行政碎片化程度较低、方言多样性较大或地形崎岖的城市，这种影响更大。最后，空间计量模型表明，信息和实践的跨城市扩散对邻近城市具有正向溢出效应。总体而言，研究结果表明，公共数据平台是改善城市要素配置的低失真政策工具。

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引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic consequences of minimum wage in a developing country 最低工资对发展中国家的宏观经济影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.004

Paul Carrillo-Maldonado, Zoe Cruz

This paper analyzes the effect of minimum wage on the macroeconomic performance of Ecuador. We use narrative identification to obtain the structural changes because of minimum wage. We estimate the impulse response function to understand the dynamic response of output, prices, and unemployment to exogenous changes in the minimum wage through local projections and structural vector autoregressive. The main results show a positive response of the gross domestic product in the short term when the minimum wage increases. Other variables such as inflation, unemployment rate, and real wage do not respond to this shock.

本文分析了最低工资对厄瓜多尔宏观经济绩效的影响。我们使用叙事识别来获得由于最低工资导致的结构性变化。我们通过局部预测和结构向量自回归来估计脉冲响应函数，以了解产出、价格和失业对外生最低工资变化的动态响应。主要结果显示，当最低工资水平提高时，国内生产总值在短期内会有积极的反应。通货膨胀、失业率和实际工资等其他变量对这种冲击没有反应。

引用次数: 0

Unlocking the potential for energy efficiency across china's subnational value chains 释放中国地方价值链的能源效率潜力

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.001

Meichen Zhang, Yuan Wang

Amid rising uncertainty in global climate governance and increasingly difficult inter-state coordination, leveraging domestic specialization to convert efficiency gains into emissions reductions offers a feasible pathway. In this study, we develop a time-series global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) database embedding Chinese provinces, enabling subnational value chain decomposition and logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI)-based analysis of energy intensity dynamics. This framework captures the spatiotemporal evolution of China’s energy intensity, identifies key inflection points across policy phases, and disentangles underlying drivers. Empirical results indicate that between 2003 and 2017, China experienced a decline in energy intensity across both production and consumption sides, with reductions of 69% and 60%, respectively. These improvements peaked during the 11th Five-Year Plan, as fossil-fuel-reliant, resource-intensive provinces cut energy intensity well above the national average. Interprovincial industrial linkages are a key channel driving energy-efficiency gains. Optimizing domestic value-chain coordination provides a feasible, efficiency-based mitigation margin under existing national burden-sharing.

在全球气候治理不确定性上升、国家间协调难度加大的背景下，利用国内专业化将效率收益转化为减排提供了一条可行途径。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个嵌入中国各省的全球多区域投入产出（MRIO）时间序列数据库，实现了次国家价值链分解和基于对数平均可分指数（LMDI）的能源强度动态分析。该框架捕捉了中国能源强度的时空演变，确定了政策阶段的关键拐点，并理清了潜在的驱动因素。实证结果表明，2003年至2017年，中国的生产和消费双方的能源强度都有所下降，分别下降了69%和60%。这些改善在“十一五”期间达到顶峰，因为依赖化石燃料的资源密集型省份将能源强度降低到了远高于全国平均水平的水平。省际产业联系是推动能源效率提高的关键渠道。在现有的国家负担分担下，优化国内价值链协调提供了一个可行的、基于效率的缓解边际。

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引用次数: 0

Sharp instrument: A stab at identifying the causes of economic growth 尖锐的工具：试图找出经济增长的原因

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.012

Reda Cherif , Fuad Hasanov , Lichen Wang

We shed new light on the determinants of growth by tackling the blunt and weak instrument problems in the empirical growth literature. As an instrument for each endogenous variable, we propose average values of the same variable in neighboring countries. This method has the advantage of producing variable-specific and time-varying—namely, “sharp”—and strong instruments. We also introduce “bias norms” to test the sensitivity of the estimates to the potential invalidity of our instruments. The estimations show that export sophistication is a relatively robust determinant of growth compared to other standard growth determinants such as years of schooling, trade openness, private credit to the economy, and institutions as measured by law and order. Other growth determinants such as human capital quality and technological level of production may be important to the extent they help improve export sophistication.

我们通过解决经验增长文献中生硬和薄弱的工具问题，揭示了增长决定因素的新亮点。作为每个内生变量的工具，我们提出了邻国同一变量的平均值。这种方法的优点是产生可变特异性和时变的——即“锋利”和强大的仪器。我们还引入了“偏差规范”来测试估计对我们的工具潜在无效的敏感性。这些估计表明，与其他标准增长决定因素（如受教育年限、贸易开放程度、私人对经济的信贷以及以法律和秩序衡量的制度）相比，出口成熟度是一个相对强大的增长决定因素。其他增长决定因素，如人力资本质量和生产技术水平，在有助于提高出口复杂性的程度上可能也很重要。

引用次数: 0

Industrial robot adoption and the resilience of manufacturing global value chains 工业机器人的采用与制造业全球价值链的弹性

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.003

Yifei Li , Yuegang Song , Chien-Chiang Lee

In the context of increasing global economic uncertainty, promoting the deep integration of artificial intelligence technology and the real economy has become a core concern for ensuring the safety of the manufacturing industry chain and advancing high-quality development. However, how industrial robot adoption (IRA) can empower global value chain (GVC) resilience, its mechanisms of action and boundaries of influence remain to be clarified as a major practical issue that requires urgent investigation. To examine this issue, this study uses the World Industrial Robot Database from the International Federation of Robotics, World Bank World Development Indicators and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) input–output tables to construct a three-dimensional, country–industry–year panel covering nine manufacturing industries in 53 countries from 2000 to 2018. We quantify manufacturing GVCs’ resilience from safety and stability dimensions and systematically examine the influence of IRA. The findings reveal that IRA can significantly improve manufacturing GVCs’ overall resilience, which remains valid following a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Further analysis reveals that this enabling effect is more prominent for labour- and technology-intensive industries, OECD countries and high import-dependent countries. Mechanism analysis confirms that IRA primarily enhances GVCs’ resilience through three channels of labour substitution, reduced trade costs and promoting technological innovation. In addition, our spatial econometric model results demonstrate that the impact of IRA not only benefits the country but also has a positive driving effect on neighbouring countries’ GVC resilience through significant positive spatial spillover effects. This study provides new insights into the evolution of manufacturing GVCs in the era of Industry 4.0 and offers valuable empirical evidence and decision-making guidance for countries to advance GVC upgrading.

在全球经济不确定性增加的背景下，推动人工智能技术与实体经济深度融合，成为保障制造业产业链安全、推进高质量发展的核心关切。然而，工业机器人的采用（IRA）如何增强全球价值链（GVC）的弹性，其作用机制和影响边界仍有待澄清，这是一个需要紧急调查的重大实际问题。为了研究这一问题，本研究使用国际机器人联合会的世界工业机器人数据库、世界银行世界发展指标和经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的投入产出表，构建了一个三维的国家-行业-年份面板，涵盖了2000年至2018年53个国家的9个制造业。我们从安全性和稳定性两个维度量化了制造业全球价值链的弹性，并系统地考察了IRA的影响。研究结果表明，IRA可以显著提高制造业全球价值链的整体弹性，经过一系列稳健性和内生性检验，这一结论仍然有效。进一步分析表明，这种促进作用对劳动和技术密集型工业、经合发组织国家和高度依赖进口的国家更为突出。机制分析证实，工业增加值主要通过劳动力替代、降低贸易成本和促进技术创新三个渠道增强全球价值链的弹性。此外，我们的空间计量模型结果表明，工业增加值的影响不仅对本国有利，而且通过显著的正空间溢出效应对邻国的全球价值链弹性具有正驱动作用。本研究为工业4.0时代制造业全球价值链演进提供了新的视角，为各国推进全球价值链升级提供了宝贵的经验证据和决策指导。

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引用次数: 0

Next Generation EU and industrial transformation: Evidence from Spain 下一代欧盟与产业转型：来自西班牙的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.002

Gabriel Lozano-Reina , Gregorio Sánchez-Marín , J. Samuel Baixauli-Soler

Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds represent a large-scale public investment aimed at mitigating the economic impact of COVID-19 and advancing industrial modernization across the European Union. This study analyzes their early effects in Spain through three objectives: (i) to provide an integrated overview of the design and industrial orientation of the Spain Can Plan, including the role of Industrial Policy Spain 2030 and PERTEs as mission-oriented instruments; (ii) to examine the macro-level implementation of NGEU funds across strategic policy levers, beneficiaries, and regions; and (iii) to assess how sectoral patterns and firm-level characteristics shape the absorption of support. Evidence from the ELISA and SABI databases shows pronounced territorial and sectoral asymmetries, with energy-related and capital-intensive activities receiving a high share of resources. At the firm level, funding allocation is closely linked to pre-existing structural capabilities, whilst post-COVID financial indicators point to improvements in profitability, productivity, and financial stability. The study concludes with policy recommendations to strengthen Spain’s industrial modernization and its strategic positioning in the global economy.

下一代欧盟（NGEU）基金是一项大规模公共投资，旨在减轻COVID-19的经济影响并推进整个欧盟的工业现代化。本研究通过三个目标分析了它们在西班牙的早期影响：(i)提供西班牙Can计划的设计和产业定位的综合概述，包括西班牙2030年产业政策和PERTEs作为任务导向工具的作用；（ii）检查跨战略政策杠杆、受益人和地区的NGEU资金宏观层面的实施情况；（三）评估部门模式和公司层面的特征如何影响对支持的吸收。ELISA和SABI数据库的证据显示明显的地域和部门不对称，与能源有关的和资本密集型活动获得的资源份额很高。在公司层面，资金分配与现有的结构能力密切相关，而后covid财务指标表明盈利能力、生产力和金融稳定性得到改善。该研究最后提出了加强西班牙工业现代化及其在全球经济中的战略定位的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Greener jobs, higher wages? The Latin American wage greenium 更环保的工作，更高的工资？拉丁美洲工资最高

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.016

Manuela Cerimelo, Pablo de la Vega, Franco Vazquez, Natalia Porto

We study the wage gap between those who are in green jobs and those who are not (the wage greenium), in nine major Latin American countries that account for 81% of the region’s GDP: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. We contribute to the recent literature focused on developed countries that highlights a positive wage gap for those working in green jobs. We use the occupational approach to define green jobs and find that, in Latin America, they pay 15.8% more than non-green jobs. This result may be a desirable market feature, as workers might be encouraged to switch to greener occupations. In addition, we find that the wage greenium increases with the years of education, which suggests that workers with a medium or high educational level in green jobs are better off than their counterparts in non-green jobs.

我们研究了占该地区GDP 81%的九个主要拉美国家从事绿色工作与非绿色工作之间的工资差距（工资绿化率）：阿根廷、玻利维亚、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、墨西哥、秘鲁和乌拉圭。我们为最近关注发达国家的文献做出了贡献，这些文献强调了从事绿色工作的人的工资差距是正的。我们使用职业方法来定义绿色工作，发现在拉丁美洲，绿色工作的工资比非绿色工作高15.8%。这一结果可能是一个令人满意的市场特征，因为工人可能会被鼓励转向更环保的职业。此外，我们发现工资绿化率随受教育年限的增加而增加，这表明从事绿色工作的中等或高等教育水平的工人比从事非绿色工作的工人更富有。

引用次数: 0

Automation and the risk of labor market exclusion across Europe 自动化和整个欧洲劳动力市场被排斥的风险

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.014

Fabio Lamperti , Davide Castellani

Labor market exclusion represents a major concern in several European economies, particularly affecting highly exposed demographic groups. This paper examines the potential effect of automation technologies on the risk of being locked into protracted unemployment or inactivity, using Labour Force Survey data for the European Union 27 countries and the United Kingdom, between 2009 and 2019. Our study employs repeated cross-sections of individual-level data to compute probabilities of exclusion outcomes due to automation adoption, controlling for several individual, macroeconomic, and region-specific characteristics, and for potential selection mechanisms. Findings highlight that, on average, the adoption of new automation technologies is associated with a higher probability of being inactive. This is consistent with the view that automation may exacerbate job insecurity, psychological discouragement, and detachment from job-seeking. This relationship is heterogeneous across demographic groups, with younger individuals being relatively more affected.

劳动力市场排斥是几个欧洲经济体的一个主要问题，尤其影响到高度暴露的人口群体。本文利用2009年至2019年欧盟27个国家和英国的劳动力调查数据，研究了自动化技术对陷入长期失业或不活动风险的潜在影响。我们的研究使用重复的个人层面数据的横截面来计算由于自动化采用而导致的排除结果的概率，控制几个个人、宏观经济和区域特定的特征，以及潜在的选择机制。研究结果强调，平均而言，采用新的自动化技术与不活跃的可能性更高有关。这与自动化可能加剧工作不安全感、心理气馁和脱离求职的观点是一致的。这种关系在不同的人口群体中是不同的，年轻人受到的影响相对更大。

引用次数: 0

Kuznets at 70: The enduring significance of a curve and a hypothesis 70岁时的库兹涅茨：曲线和假设的持久意义

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.015

James Galbraith , Ravi Kanbur , Kunal Sen , Andy Sumner

Seven decades ago, Simon Kuznets put forward the hypothesis that as economies developed, national inequality would first increase and then decrease—an inverted U-shape. He provided preliminary evidence for the hypothesis on the basis of the limited data available at the time, and theorized the genesis of the curve as arising from the twin forces of structural transformation of the economy and political economy pressures. Seven decades on, the Kuznets curve still has a hold on the development discourse as new data is used to test the hypothesis, new theories are elaborated to explain the evolution of inequality, and the metaphor of an inverse U-shape is extended beyond its original realm of national inequality. With this rich history and background, the time is right to examine the Kuznets curve literature broadly construed. This overview takes stock of what has been learned and highlights emerging research and policy questions.

70年前，西蒙·库兹涅茨（Simon Kuznets）提出了一个假设，即随着经济的发展，国家间的不平等会先增加后减少——呈倒u形。他根据当时有限的数据为这一假设提供了初步证据，并将曲线的起源理论化为经济结构转型和政治经济压力的双重力量。七十年过去了，库兹涅茨曲线仍然对发展话语有影响，因为新的数据被用来检验这一假设，新的理论被用来解释不平等的演变，反u形的隐喻被扩展到其最初的国家不平等领域之外。有了这一丰富的历史和背景，是时候对库兹涅茨曲线文献进行广泛解读了。这篇综述总结了已经学到的知识，并突出了新兴的研究和政策问题。

引用次数: 0

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