Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Production network structure, specialization and unemployment: Measuring the structural resilience of national economies

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.009

Tibor Kiss, Erik Braun, Tamás Sebestyén

Specialization leads to efficient production structures that generate welfare gains, while the resulting interconnectedness of countries spreads shocks more rapidly, making the global economic system more volatile. This paper applies the framework of ecological network analysis to input–output data and captures resilient economic structures between self-sufficiency (redundancy) and extreme specialization (efficiency). Calculating the structural resilience of 69 countries shows that economies are more redundant than ecological systems and moved towards more efficient structures over time. By regressing economic openness on structural characteristics, we find that economically more open economies on the export side are more efficient and less structurally redundant. This reflects that specialization and integration into global supply chains go hand in hand. We also find a significant empirical relationship between structural resilience and changes in unemployment. This finding suggests that measuring the structural resilience of national production networks helps capture the robustness of economic systems.

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引用次数: 0

Identification of key paths for embodied carbon emissions in China based on a five-dimensional analysis model

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.010

Zhenjun Zhang , Weiming Chen

China proposed the "double carbon goals" in 2020. carbon emissions reduction has become a crucial aspect in China's economic development process. Faced with significant differences in regional carbon emissions, and complex inter-industry linkages, it is necessary to break down the carbon emission paths along the supply chain from multiple dimensions. Based on the input-output-structure path analysis model, we constructed a five-dimensional analysis model, aiming to thoroughly clarify China's inter-regional and inter-industry carbon emission relations. The results show that from 1997 to 2017, carbon emissions driven by urban household consumption have increased from 579.48 Mt to 3302.71 Mt. Transportation warehousing and other services have driven upstream to generate lots of carbon emissions. The largest emission path is generated by the electric heat and water supply industry in Shandong, meeting the consumption of urban residents. Carbon emissions generated by electric heat and water supply industry in Shanxi and Shandong should be focused.

引用次数: 0

The decline of the wage share in value-added: What have we learned from North African firms?

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.007

Youssef Bouazizi , Ouail Oulmakki , Luc Savard , Jérôme Verny

This study, based on a World Bank survey of 5,351 observations in Morocco, Egypt, and Tunisia, offers a detailed analysis of the factors leading to the reduction in the wage share of value added in North African companies. The findings suggest that increased capital and technological advancements, especially in patent adoption, are principal contributors to this decrease. Moreover, the intensification of both local and foreign competition, along with trade liberalization facilitated by offshoring, negatively affects the wage share. However, the influence of privatization and foreign direct investment on this trend is minimal. The research also emphasizes the need to include sectoral variability of large firms in the analysis to fully understand the underlying dynamics.

引用次数: 0

Toward Common Prosperity: Measuring decrease in inequality in China prefecture-level cities

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.10.006

Xin Hou , Jianbo Gao

To resolve the ongoing debate on the trajectory of inequality in China and to quantitatively measure China’s progress toward the goal of common prosperity, this study proposes a novel approach based on Revealed Comparative Wealth (RCW). Tailoring RCW to national levels to study China prefecture-level cities, a salient pattern of widespread convergence to the national mean since 2003 is observed, signifying an extensive reduction in economic inequality across China prefecture-level cities. Building on this observation, a modified Gini coefficient,

{Gini}_{city}

, is proposed, which shows that China’s inter-city economic inequality reached its zenith in 2003 and has since been declining. A new Theil’s T formulae is also derived based on RCW to corroborate this finding. The declining inequality trend can be largely attributed to two key mechanisms: (1) the implementation of the “Common Prosperity” policy framework, which includes numerous targeted assistance policies from both central and local governments aimed at fostering a more balanced and equitable economic landscape, and (2) the process of urbanization, which exacerbated inequality in 1980s and 1990s during China’s first stage of economic reform, has facilitated the sharing of added wealth with an influx of population into economically thriving cities since 2000. The developmental strategies of China may offer valuable insights for other developing countries pursuing economic equality and growth simultaneously.

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引用次数: 0

Imitation or learning: Exploring the drivers of Special economic zones

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.001

Roberta Arbolino , Raffaele Boffardi , Mariangela Bonasia , Salvatore Capasso , Luisa De Simone

This paper aims to explore how European governments approach the diffusion of Special Economic Zones besides the other types of Incentive Zones (Free Trade Zones, Free Zones and Free Ports) by examining whether they engage in comprehensive planning and programming or simply replicate policies based on the reputation of early adopters. The authors propose two reasons for adopting industrial policies: imitation, which involves replicating actions from other countries based on their economic or institutional status, and innovation, which entails adopting policies after carefully analysing their specific impacts. Results show that policymakers approach Incentive Zones establishment in a non-optimal way, that is, through a blind replication of policies already implemented in other countries showing a robust economic performance and a sound institutional background.

引用次数: 0

Technological change and entrepreneurial activities: Evidence from China

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.006

Lijuan Cui , Yekun Xu

This study is among the first to examine the impacts of technological change on entrepreneurial activities. Using new registered enterprises data and industrial robot data from 2010 to 2018, we find that robot adoption is broadly negatively associated with regional entrepreneurial activities. However, our analysis reveals a more nuanced understanding, in which robot adoption boosts high-quality entrepreneurial activities in regions, specifically those in technology-based industries, but reduces low-quality entrepreneurial activities. We also find that a favorable labor allocation environment and sufficient labor resources, as well as abundant high-skilled labor resources, can mitigate the negative impact. Credit constraints and the upgrading of industrial structures are effective in mitigating the crowding-out effect. In cities with higher unemployment risks, the negative effect is attenuated. The extent of the negative effect varies depending on the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, and the hukou reform helps to mitigate the negative impact. In addition, robot adoption has a significant spatial spillover effect between adjacent cities. These findings shed light on the effects of industrial robot adoption on local entrepreneurial activities, as well as the role of technological change in fostering entrepreneurial activities. Our findings suggest that it is crucial to grasp the strategic opportunities embedded in technological change to spur entrepreneurship.

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引用次数: 0

Network spillover effects and path analysis of shocks - An empirical study in China

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.002

Yuqi Zhang , Huajiao Li , Xiaoqi Sun , Qianyong Tang , Bo Ren , Jianglan Shi

The study of interconnections between various sectors of the national economy is crucial for understanding the pattern and pace of macroeconomic growth. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of shocks occurring in specific sectors through both supply and demand perspectives and proposes a combination of bottom-up and top-down structural path analysis approaches to trace the transmission path of network spillover effects, where shocks in this paper refer to microeconomic productivity changes and network spillover is defined as the effect on GDP due to the propagation of shocks to other sectors. The research results found that the total spillover effect of primary and secondary industry sectors in China shows an inverted U-shape, and the total spillover effect of tertiary industry sectors shows an upward trend. A large total spillover effect of a sector does not mean that both upward and downward spillover effects are large; for example, the construction industry has high upward spillover effects and low downward spillover effects. The spillover effect of each production layer decreases as the path lengthens, and the distribution is L-shaped. In addition, by identifying the critical paths of spillover effects, we find that the spillover effects of labor-intensive industries, such as wholesale and retail, are decreasing year by year, and the spillover effects of the paths related to the information technology industry are gradually occupying an important position.

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引用次数: 0

Broadening energy resilience: How does the digital economy affect the global energy value chain?

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.005

Youyi Deng , Kangyin Dong , Qian Sun , Jinjun Xue

The frequent occurrence of global economic black swan events has affected the development of the global energy value chain (GEVC) and exposed countries to considerable uncertainty. However, digital economy development can offer new solutions and perspectives for countries to mitigate external shocks, ensure energy security and improve energy resilience. This study examines 71 countries from 2010 to 2019, innovatively obtaining GEVC from input–output tables to explore the impact and mechanism of the digital economy on GEVC in terms of countries’ dimensions of participation and position. The relevant results are threefold. First, the digital economy increases countries’ participation in GEVC and pushes them to move downstream of the GEVC. This result still holds after robustness tests. Second, the mechanism test demonstrates that the digital economy can influence factor allocation and innovation to affect countries’ GEVC participation. Third, the effect of the digital economy on a nation's ability to participate in the GEVC varies depending on the external and internal threats that the nation faces. This study enriches the research on global value chains and has important implications encouraging countries to advance digital economy development, navigate external shocks and accelerate digital economy and GEVC integration.

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引用次数: 0

Is there really an inflation tax? Not for the middle class

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.008

Edward N. Wolff

One hallmark of U.S. monetary policy since the early 1980s has been moderation in inflation (at least, until recently). How has this affected household well-being? The paper first develops a new model to address this issue. The inflation tax on income is defined as the difference between the nominal and real growth in income. This term is always negative (as long as inflation is positive). The inflation gain on household wealth is the revaluation resulting from asset price changes directly linked to inflation. This term can be positive or negative. The net inflation gain is the difference between the two, which can also be positive or negative. The empirical analysis covers years 1983 to 2019 on the basis of the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and historical inflation rates. It also looks at the sensitivity of the results to alternative inflation rates, and considers the effects of inflation on real wealth growth, wealth inequality, and the racial wealth gap. The results show that inflation boosted the real income of the middle wealth quintile by an incredible two thirds. In contrast, the bottom two wealth quintiles got lashed by inflation, losing almost half of their real income. Inflation also boosted mean and especially median real wealth growth, reduced wealth inequality, and lowered the racial and ethnic wealth gap. Both the income and wealth results are magnified at higher (simulated) rates of inflation.

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引用次数: 0

Indicators of absorptive capacity. Conceptual framework and estimates for 25 countries and 24 UK sectors

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.003

Marion Frenz , Grazia Ietto-Gillies

The paper develops a conceptual and operationalization framework for absorptive capacity (ACAP) leading to empirical indicators useful for the development of innovation policy. Applications are presented for 25 European countries and 24 UK sectors. For the country study, four dimensions are developed. Two in relations to embodiment of knowledge and two to acquisition. On the former, one dimension captures embodiment in assets and scientific activities and one in human resources both on the supply and demand side. Two dimensions capture acquisition of knowledge via social linkages and via physical and digital connectivity. Several variables contribute to each of these dimensions. ACAP values are arrived at by combining all dimensions. The sector study is developed along similar lines. It has two components related to large and medium-sized enterprises. The results show: clear strengths and weaknesses in ACAP by country and sector; and, in the sector study, more sector- than enterprise-size specificity.

引用次数: 0

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