Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Is agricultural productivity a prerequisite for structural transformation? Evidence on the role of trade openness 农业生产力是结构转型的先决条件吗？关于贸易开放作用的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016

Arnaud Daymard

A high agricultural productivity is usually seen as a precondition for the development of industry and services, but this idea relies crucially on the assumption of an economy closed to international trade. In a globalized world, can a country industrialize or tertiarize without prior agricultural development? There is still little practical knowledge of this possibility. In this paper, I assess the relevance of closed- versus open-economy models of structural transformation using data on the sectoral productivity levels of developed and developing countries over the 1950–2018 period. The empirical findings suggest that most countries behave approximately as closed economies. Therefore, except for small city-state countries, the emphasis on agricultural development to achieve industrialization and tertiarization is justified. Nonetheless, the results reveal that in Latin America and Africa, a high agricultural productivity causes tertiarization with little development of the industrial sector. This “premature deindustrialization” hints at the influence of specific barriers to the creation of industrial jobs: an adverse business environment for large manufacturing firms and a downward trend in the world prices of manufacturing goods.

高农业生产率通常被视为工业和服务业发展的先决条件，但这一观点主要依赖于一个不依赖国际贸易的经济体的假设。在一个全球化的世界里，一个国家能在没有农业发展的前提下实现工业化或三农化吗？关于这种可能性的实际知识仍然很少。在本文中，我使用1950-2018年期间发达国家和发展中国家部门生产率水平的数据，评估了结构转型的封闭经济模型与开放经济模型的相关性。实证研究结果表明，大多数国家的行为近似于封闭经济体。因此，除了小型城邦国家外，强调农业发展以实现工业化和第三化是合理的。然而，研究结果表明，在拉丁美洲和非洲，高农业生产率导致了三化，而工业部门的发展很少。这种“过早去工业化”暗示了对创造工业就业的具体障碍的影响：大型制造企业的不利商业环境和世界制造业产品价格的下降趋势。

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引用次数: 0

The acceleration and attenuation: Internet infrastructure and employment adjustment patterns 加速与衰减：互联网基础设施与就业调整模式

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.003

Li Yu , Siyuan Zhao , Chen Liu , Fenglan Chen

How does the arrival of broadband Internet affect firms’ employment adjustment patterns? Understanding this relationship is crucial, particularly given the challenges of employment recovery following major economic shocks such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine this question using China’s broadband infrastructure expansion in the early 2000s. Using establishment-level data, we find that Internet access increases employment adjustment rates, reduces the probability of inaction, and increases the likelihood of smooth adjustments. Internet access also alters the distribution of adjustment types: firms transition more quickly from spike to smooth adjustments, while maintaining smooth adjustment periods longer before reverting to inaction. By alleviating search frictions, lowering fixed hiring costs, and reducing firm-level uncertainty, these shifts in adjustment patterns improve firms’ responsiveness to economic shocks: cities with better Internet infrastructure show stronger employment responses to positive demand shocks from WTO and faster recovery from the 2008-09 crisis. The changes in distribution of adjustment types not only promote employment growth but also generate significant efficiency gains: micro-level improvements explain 44 percent of the reduction in firm-level labor misallocation, while cities with better digital infrastructure exhibit lower dispersion in labor’s marginal product, though the magnitude depends on local labor mobility institutions.

宽带互联网的到来如何影响企业的就业调整模式？理解这种关系至关重要，特别是考虑到全球金融危机和COVID-19大流行等重大经济冲击后就业复苏的挑战。我们用本世纪初中国宽带基础设施的扩张来研究这个问题。利用企业层面的数据，我们发现互联网接入提高了就业调整率，降低了不作为的可能性，并增加了顺利调整的可能性。互联网的接入也改变了调整类型的分布：企业更快地从峰值调整过渡到平稳调整，同时在恢复无所作为之前保持平稳调整周期的时间更长。通过缓解搜索摩擦、降低固定雇佣成本和降低企业层面的不确定性，这些调整模式的转变提高了企业对经济冲击的响应能力：拥有更好互联网基础设施的城市对WTO的积极需求冲击表现出更强的就业反应，并从2008-09年危机中复苏得更快。调整类型分布的变化不仅促进了就业增长，而且还产生了显著的效率提升：微观层面的改善解释了44%的企业层面劳动力错配减少，而拥有更好数字基础设施的城市在劳动力边际产品上表现出更低的分散，尽管其程度取决于当地的劳动力流动制度。

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引用次数: 0

A model of maximum employment growth with a one-third profit share 一个以三分之一的利润份额实现最大就业增长的模型

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.013

Alain Villemeur

The economies of the European Union and the United States have been predominantly wage-driven in recent decades, according to most empirical studies on the Bhaduri–Marglin model (1990). Nevertheless, since the 1980s, European governments have operated under the neoclassical belief that full employment can be achieved by reducing labour costs and increasing the profit share of income, a strategy that has proven effective, though the reasons remain a mystery (Storm and Naastepad, 2017). How could this happen? To explain these developments, the proposed new model of growth and distribution integrates the principles of chain reaction, creative destruction, effective demand, and the significance of income distribution, as outlined by Kaldor, Schumpeter, Keynes, and Ricardo, respectively. It has been theoretically demonstrated that employment growth reaches its maximum when profit share accounts for one-third of income. This relationship is illustrated by the evolution of the U.S. economy throughout the 20th century and by 17 advanced economies since 1961, the earliest year for which precise data is available. Thus, wages drive output and productivity growth, while employment growth is driven by the profit share when it is below the one-third threshold, and by the wage share when it exceeds that point.

根据对Bhaduri-Marglin模型（1990）的大多数实证研究，近几十年来，欧盟和美国的经济主要是由工资驱动的。然而，自20世纪80年代以来，欧洲各国政府一直在新古典主义的信念下运作，即充分就业可以通过降低劳动力成本和增加收入的利润份额来实现，这一策略已被证明是有效的，尽管原因仍然是一个谜（Storm和Naastepad， 2017）。这是怎么发生的？为了解释这些发展，新提出的增长和分配模型整合了连锁反应、创造性破坏、有效需求和收入分配的重要性等原则，这些原则分别由卡尔多、熊彼特、凯恩斯和李嘉图提出。理论上已经证明，当利润占收入的三分之一时，就业增长达到最大。美国经济在整个20世纪的演变，以及自1961年以来17个发达经济体（1961年是可获得精确数据的最早年份）的演变，都说明了这种关系。因此，工资推动产出和生产率增长，而就业增长是由利润份额驱动的，当它低于三分之一的门槛时，由工资份额驱动，当它超过这一点时。

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引用次数: 0

Is environmental regulation an incentive or an obstacle to green innovation? 环境法规对绿色创新是激励还是阻碍？

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.003

Chunyang Wang

To investigate the validity of the Market Failure Theory and Porter Hypothesis, this paper utilizes a hand-collected novel dataset from manufacturing firms form 2010 to 2020, presenting empirical evidence on how different types of environmental regulations influence green innovation and assessing the moderating effect of government subsidies. The conclusions demonstrate that mandatory environmental regulation reduces green innovation, whereas voluntary environmental regulation stimulates it. Government subsidies mitigate the negative influences of mandatory environmental regulation on green innovation but cannot have an impact on the positive effect of voluntary environmental regulation on green innovation. Additionally, mandatory environmental regulation affects green innovation in the long term, whereas voluntary environmental regulation yields only transient impacts confined to the immediate subsequent year. Finally, the influences of environmental regulations are heterogeneous, varying according to firm age, industry, and region. The conclusions support the Porter Hypothesis and Market Failure Theory, providing policy implications for policymakers, firm managers, and investors.

为了验证市场失灵理论和波特假说的有效性，本文利用2010 - 2020年手工收集的制造业企业数据，提供了不同类型的环境法规如何影响绿色创新的实证证据，并评估了政府补贴的调节作用。研究结果表明，强制性环境监管抑制了绿色创新，而自愿性环境监管则促进了绿色创新。政府补贴缓解了强制性环境规制对绿色创新的负面影响，但不能影响自愿性环境规制对绿色创新的积极影响。此外，强制性环境监管对绿色创新的影响是长期的，而自愿性环境监管只产生局限于下一年的短暂影响。最后，环境规制的影响是异质的，因企业年龄、行业和地区的不同而不同。结论支持波特假说和市场失灵理论，为政策制定者、企业管理者和投资者提供政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

International cost-push inflation and monetary policy in Brazil 巴西的国际成本推动型通货膨胀和货币政策

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.003

Guilherme Spinato Morlin

Exchange rate and commodity prices are often considered primary drivers of inflation in Brazil. However, international cost shocks from intermediate inputs are less studied. We estimate a Structural VAR model including a Foreign Producer Price Index, measuring cost changes of Brazilian trade partners in the period 1999–2020. Estimates show a positive effect of the Foreign PPI on the Brazilian Consumer Price Index, providing a relevant explanation for domestic inflation. Consistently with the empirical literature, our results underscore the Exchange Rate as the main determinant of the CPI. Our findings highlight the predominance of shocks related to the external sector (Exchange Rate, Foreign PPI, and Commodity Prices) in explaining inflation in Brazil. Since the international shocks and Foreign PPI are beyond the direct influence of the Central Bank, our results confirm that the inflation targeting regime in Brazil relied mainly on the exchange rate effect following changes in the interest rate.

汇率和商品价格通常被认为是巴西通货膨胀的主要驱动因素。然而，对中间投入的国际成本冲击的研究较少。我们估计了一个包含外国生产者价格指数的结构性VAR模型，测量了1999-2020年期间巴西贸易伙伴的成本变化。估计数据显示，国外PPI对巴西消费者价格指数（cpi）产生了积极影响，为国内通胀提供了相关解释。与实证文献一致，我们的结果强调汇率是CPI的主要决定因素。我们的研究结果强调了与外部部门（汇率、国外PPI和商品价格）相关的冲击在解释巴西通胀方面的主导地位。由于国际冲击和国外PPI超出了中央银行的直接影响，我们的研究结果证实，巴西的通货膨胀目制制主要依赖于利率变化后的汇率效应。

引用次数: 0

Can labor policies reduce precarization? The case of youth employment in Italy 劳工政策能减少不稳定现象吗？以意大利青年就业为例

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.003

Nicola Caravaggio

The so-called Dignity Decree (DD), which came into force in summer 2018, represents one of the most significant legislative interventions in employment protection within the Italian labor market. This study examines the role of DD in shaping the career paths of young workers (aged 15-29) who recently entered the labor market. Specifically, we focus on their probability of being employed one year or more after the reform’s implementation and their likelihood of securing an open-ended contract within the same time frames. The analysis relies on an exclusive database of Compulsory Communications data and employs a Propensity Score Matching estimation. The findings suggest a modest improvement in the persistence of the labor market, with the probability of remaining employed increasing by approximately 1.5% one year after DD implementation. The result is more evident for open-ended contracts, with the probability of being employed in a permanent position rising to almost 4.5% after one year and half. Additionally, the DD is associated with a slight reduction in the number of contract activations and an increase in working days, reaching an additional 11 days 1.5 years after the reform’s introduction.

《尊严法令》于2018年夏季生效，是意大利劳动力市场就业保护方面最重要的立法干预措施之一。本研究考察了DD在塑造最近进入劳动力市场的年轻工人（15-29岁）的职业道路中的作用。具体来说，我们关注的是他们在改革实施一年或更长时间后被雇用的可能性，以及他们在相同时间框架内获得开放式合同的可能性。该分析依赖于强制性通信数据的专有数据库，并采用倾向得分匹配估计。研究结果表明，劳动力市场的持久性略有改善，在实施DD一年后，保持就业的可能性增加了约1.5%。这一结果在无固定期限合同中更为明显，在一年半后，获得永久职位的可能性上升至近4.5%。此外，DD与合同激活数量略有减少和工作日增加有关，在改革实施后一年半达到11天。

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引用次数: 0

Different specifications and implications of the supermultiplier model 超乘数模型的不同规格和含义

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.012

José A. Pérez-Montiel , Andreu Sansó

We analyze, compare, and discuss two distinct econometric specifications of the supermultiplier model. Specifically, we contrast the empirical strategy that examines the relationship between output (

y_{t}

) and autonomous demand (

z_{t}

) with the specification that focuses on the relationship between induced demand (

x_{t}

) and

z_{t}

. Although both specifications are theoretically valid from a macroeconomic standpoint, we use econometric theory to show that they may lead to different conclusions regarding cointegration and causality. This paper challenges the findings of existing empirical research based on the

y_{t}

–

z_{t}

specification, which should be interpreted with caution, particularly those suggesting unidirectional Granger causality from autonomous demand to output.

我们分析、比较和讨论了超乘数模型的两种不同的计量经济指标。具体来说，我们将检验产出（yt）和自主需求（zt）之间关系的实证策略与关注诱导需求（xt）和zt之间关系的规范进行了对比。虽然从宏观经济的角度来看，这两个规范在理论上是有效的，但我们使用计量经济学理论来表明，它们可能导致关于协整和因果关系的不同结论。本文对现有的基于yt-zt规范的实证研究结果提出了挑战，这些研究结果应该谨慎解读，特别是那些提出从自主需求到产出的单向格兰杰因果关系的研究结果。

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引用次数: 0

Global value chains, structural change and growth dynamics in South Korea and Spain: Costs and benefits of globalization 韩国和西班牙的全球价值链、结构变化和增长动态：全球化的成本和收益

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.05.017

Keun Lee , Isabel Álvarez , Ángel Valarezo

This paper revisits structural change, economic complexity, and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation in long-term growth dynamics of South Korea and Spain. The findings reveal both similarities and differences in their growth patterns, despite comparable economic size and income levels. First, we confirm the importance of capital formation, along with structural change at different intensities across the two countries. Second, we confirm the heterogeneous effects of economic complexity across two countries, which is because Korea exports high-tech and high complexity goods whereas Spain exports a mix of complex manufactured goods and low-complexity agricultural products. Third, and most importantly, we find a negative effect of forward GVC participation on economic growth, particularly in certain industries, highlighting the perils of globalization. Lastly, while some positive effects of backward GVC participation are observed in specific Spanish subsectors, negative effects on growth and structural change persist in Korea, underscoring the variability in growth outcomes.

本文回顾了结构变化、经济复杂性和全球价值链（GVC）参与对韩国和西班牙长期增长动态的影响。尽管两国的经济规模和收入水平相当，但研究结果显示，两国的增长模式既有相似之处，也有差异。首先，我们确认了资本形成的重要性，以及两国不同强度的结构性变化。其次，我们确认了两国经济复杂性的异质效应，这是因为韩国出口高科技和高复杂性的产品，而西班牙出口复杂的制成品和低复杂性的农产品。第三，也是最重要的一点，我们发现前瞻性全球价值链参与对经济增长的负面影响，特别是在某些行业，这凸显了全球化的风险。最后，虽然落后的全球价值链参与在西班牙的特定子行业中观察到一些积极影响，但对增长和结构变化的负面影响在韩国持续存在，强调了增长结果的可变性。

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引用次数: 0

Employee compensation in European regions: A spatial analysis of short- and long-term effects 欧洲地区雇员薪酬：短期和长期影响的空间分析

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.03.019

Antonio Garofalo , Emma Bruno , Maria D'Avino , Aniello Ferraro , Gennaro Punzo

Some European countries have recently experienced stagnation or decline in employee compensation, highlighting the need to investigate its causes to develop policies that support economic well-being and competitiveness.

Using a dynamic spatial Durbin panel model and data from 242 European regions from 2008 to 2020, this study explores key socio-demographic, economic, and institutional factors affecting employee compensation. The estimation approach accounts for both spatial and temporal dimensions, allowing the assessment of short- and long-term direct and spillover effects associated with each predictor.

The results show significant spatial dependencies, with GDP per capita positively influencing compensation in the short-run, while education negatively due to skill mismatches. Institutional quality contributes to higher compensation levels both in the short- and long-term, highlighting effective governance's role. Statutory minimum wages have negative direct effects in the short-run and positive spillovers in the long-run.

一些欧洲国家最近经历了雇员薪酬的停滞或下降，突出表明有必要调查其原因，以制定支持经济福祉和竞争力的政策。本文采用动态空间Durbin面板模型和来自欧洲242个地区2008 - 2020年的数据，探讨了影响员工薪酬的主要社会人口、经济和制度因素。估算方法考虑了空间和时间两个维度，允许评估与每个预测因子相关的短期和长期直接和溢出效应。结果显示出显著的空间依赖性，人均GDP在短期内正向影响薪酬，而教育程度由于技能错配而负向影响薪酬。制度质量在短期和长期都有助于提高薪酬水平，突出了有效治理的作用。法定最低工资在短期内具有负面的直接影响，而在长期内具有积极的溢出效应。

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引用次数: 0

Fintech and absolute intergenerational mobility: Evidence from digital finance development in China 金融科技与绝对代际流动性：来自中国数字金融发展的证据

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.004

Chenxuan Chen

Over the past four decades, wealth accumulation has increasingly concentrated among a small elite, particularly in developing countries. The rise of financial technology (fintech), however, offers a powerful tool to overcome these barriers and foster financial inclusion. Using microdata, we demonstrate that fintech significantly improves absolute intergenerational mobility, which represents a 67.76 % increase in the income of poor families. Our analysis reveals that fintech alleviates liquidity constraints and enhances "market luck", lowering entry barriers for economically disadvantaged individuals to pursue entrepreneurship. Furthermore, fintech's inclusive nature leads to varied effects across different households and offspring, reducing gender inequality and supporting upward mobility for low-income families. By expanding access to financial resources, fintech emerges as a crucial driver in addressing class disparities and promoting intergenerational mobility.

在过去40年里，财富积累越来越集中在少数精英手中，尤其是在发展中国家。然而，金融技术（fintech）的兴起为克服这些障碍和促进普惠金融提供了强有力的工具。利用微观数据，我们证明了金融科技显著提高了绝对代际流动性，这意味着贫困家庭的收入增加了67.76%。我们的分析表明，金融科技缓解了流动性约束，增强了“市场运气”，降低了经济弱势群体追求创业的进入门槛。此外，金融科技的包容性在不同家庭和后代之间产生了不同的影响，减少了性别不平等，支持了低收入家庭的向上流动。通过扩大获得金融资源的渠道，金融科技成为解决阶级差距和促进代际流动的关键驱动力。

引用次数: 0

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