Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

The paper examines the issue of enhancing the efficiency of regional public employment systems. A region's sectoral employment pattern serves as an indicator of its socioeconomic development level. Understanding structural shifts occurring in response to inter-industry labor flows is critical to achieve effective employment policies. In this study, we propose a classification of economic sectors that uses as key criterion the impact on public employment of structural shift components (national share, industrial mix, regional shift) and can be used as a tool for evaluating the effectiveness of regions’ sectoral policies and for identifying industries with potential for job creation. The analysis demonstrates the significance of Groups 1–3economic sectors, for which the local share is positive and exceeds the national and industry mix share, in the efforts to increase regional employment. We evaluate the employment potential of the Russian Arctic regions’ economic sectors through identifying their core industries and relative concentration. By using as example the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), we demonstrate the scholarly and practical value of the proposed classification in enhancing the effectiveness and objectivity of local sectoral policies. We further provide the analysis of share the national, sectoral, and regional factors represent in sectoral employment shift, and present the industries that have played a dominant role in the Republic of Sakha's employment growth. Using the proposed classification, we evaluate the efficiency of the employment policy of the region under study and propose recommendations for growth in sectoral employment.

This study investigates the contribution that digital transformation and globalization have made to inclusive, green economic growth. We construct an inclusive green growth index leveraging 28 variables accounting for economic, environmental and social performances. By exploiting a dataset of 95 countries and spanning from 2010 and 2020, we regress the inclusive green growth index on variables capturing investments in digital technologies and the degree of trade and capital openness. Findings show that while globalization does not have strong and significant relevance for inclusive green economic growth, investments in digital technologies are beneficial. However, this evidence does not hold for high income countries.

We develop and quantitatively evaluate a spatial general equilibrium model that incorporates carbon emission regulations. We study the impact of emission regulation on the economies of regions within a country under climate change mitigation goals, and how the impact of emission regulation in one region influences other regions through regional‒sectoral linkages. The model is calibrated using Chinese regional and sectoral data, and several counterfactual exercises are performed. The results indicate that undifferentiated increases in emission regulation across regions have resulted in inter-regional differences in real GDP changes; however, “equity-oriented” regionally differentiated emissions regulations reduce this imbalance. Regarding interactions between regions, negative impacts on the economy are characterized by geographical proximity, whereas positive impacts are not geographically constrained. Sectoral linkages exacerbate the negative economic impacts of emission regulations and widen regional disparities. Additionally, we demonstrate the extended application of our model through two case studies.

SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) is not a success story. Geographically connected, but highly dis-integrated, with more than 90 % outward-oriented trade, this is the case of South Asia. Of course, military, and political tensions are the major obstacles. However, recent data and studies show that cumbersome procedures, ruthless application of NTMs (Non-Tariff Measures) and restrictions are the biggest challenges for trade in the region. NTMs are important for public health and the environment but if such standards are mutually recognized through bilateral or multilateral agreements then the hectic and lengthy procedures can be avoided. This is the basic hypothesis investigated and checked in this research. Taking four economies, (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and SriLanka) two-step process is adopted; firstly, AVEs (Ad Valorem Equivalents) of NTMs are calculated and then incorporated in an extended GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) based CGE model. Simulation results suggest that if standards are mutually recognized then all countries will be better off, intra-regional trade and welfare will increase. The study recommends that SAFTA should proceed to establish such a mechanism that enables member countries to recognize the certificates and tests approved by the exporting countries. Further, Port restrictions and the issue of para-tariffs should be discussed in future negotiations.

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The “Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson” model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the economy's trajectory. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator, as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator to produce a nonlinear limit cycle. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has – in contrast with the 1939 model – received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, based on his long-established tradition of non-optimising macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of that article and some analytical results that shed new light on the formal aspects of Samuelson's 1988 model. We also discuss how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and Richard Goodwin and examine how far Samuelson's use of the term secular stagnation differs from Larry Summers's recent reconstruction of it.

Engaging in export activities is a key factor influencing firm performance. This paper explores the export-productivity and export-capital intensity relationship using firm-level data from the Brazilian manufacturing industry over the period 2007–2014. The empirical strategy combines Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Differences in Differences (DD) methods and explores the fact that firms enter the external market at different moments, generating a variation in the period and permanence in international trade. We find static and dynamic effects on labor productivity, total factor productivity, and capital intensity. Firms that start exports experience an average productivity growth of about 5% and a 2% decrease in capital intensity compared to non-exporting firms. The permanence in the activity magnifies these impacts. After three periods, the growth (reduction) in productivity (capital intensity) is around 10.5% (4.7%). We identify heterogeneous effects, leading to variations in magnitude across dimensions such as technological intensity, size, age, ex-ante levels of productivity and capital intensity, and intensive margin of trade. We also show that firms become more labor intensive by demanding more skilled workers.

Several countries rely heavily on imported intermediate inputs for the manufacturing of their exported goods. Understanding the implications of this reliance on a country's growth performance is vital. To address this issue, we conducted an in-depth analysis using the multi-sectoral balance-of-payments constrained growth model with data from Turkey spanning 1970 to 2019. We used the autoregressive distributed lag method to estimate sectoral export, final import, intermediate goods import, and total import demand functions for five technology-based sectors. Subsequently, we calculated growth rates using the multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth models, factoring in the estimated income and price elasticities, as well as the respective sectoral shares in total exports, total imports, total final imports, and total intermediate goods imports. Our results demonstrate that the multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth model, which incorporates the impact of imported intermediate goods, successfully predicts Turkey's growth path. The findings indicate that structural changes in the production process and the use of imported intermediate inputs have a positive impact on exports. However, Turkey's significant dependence on imported intermediate goods during the production process leads to a decrease in the multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth rate.

From a time-space perspective, we assess the effects of geographical proximity on technological convergence over time identifying proximity dimensions associated with countries’ technological similarities. We compare a time series of input-output coefficients for 66 different countries extracted from the 2021 edition of OECD Inter-Country Input-Output to verify whether nearby countries are more likely to share similar technologies. Our results reveal that geographical technological spillovers are important since closer economies tend to be more similar than distant ones. This is particularly evident for the European economies in the sample, suggesting that institutional proximity also matters for technological convergence. Over time, closer economies are becoming structurally more similar; however, this trend seems to have slowed down after the 2008–9 financial crisis. Conjectures on how informational gaps are filled in the consolidation of the databases – encountered in an environment of limited information – based on known practices of using regional and global average structures may add a layer of uncertainty to our results.

This article analyses the influence of internationalisation and digitalisation on eco-innovation. Advanced panel data estimation techniques are employed using data from the 27 EU Member States between 2013 and 2022. The dynamic behaviour of internationalisation, more specifically Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), is tested, accounting for the endogeneity between innovation and international economic competition. Results reveal that the relationship between eco-innovation and FDI changes over time. At first, FDI has a negative impact on eco-innovation, but this effect becomes positive after two years. However, when analysing the data for eco-innovation at a disaggregated level, a potential delay in the influence of internationalisation on investments related to green research capabilities and resource efficiency outcomes is revealed. Results also consistently demonstrate a positive influence of digitalisation on eco-innovation, supporting the twin transition proposition of the digital shift complementing the transition towards low-carbon practices. Recommendations for policymakers and managers are provided at the end.

I estimate aggregate and industry-specific elasticities of scale and markups for the U.S. economy over the period from 1980 to 2019 using data on publicly traded companies. I apply Olley–Pakes and Ackerberg–Caves–Frazer estimation methods and find that the aggregate elasticity of scale for the U.S. economy is 1.1 and has been rising. The elasticity of scale in turn serves as an input for calculating industry markups. Increasing returns to scale help explain observed increases in markups over the last decades for broad sectors of the economy. My estimate of 1.2 for the aggregate markup is significantly lower than the estimate of 1.6 found in recent literature. The large disparity in markup estimates stems from differences in the treatment of fixed and variable costs and the methodological approach to the calculation of markups.