Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Evaluation of bioeconomic practices within structural changes using picture fuzzy decision-making model 利用图像模糊决策模型评价结构变化中的生物经济实践

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.017

Muhammet Deveci , Mehtap Isik , Arunodaya Raj Mishra , Pratibha Rani , Ilgin Gokasar , Zhe Liu

This study examines the impacts of the bioeconomy transition from a multidimensional perspective. As a growing response to sustainability challenges, the bioeconomy is driving dynamic structural changes in both the economy and society. This transition holds significant potential for job creation, integration with circular economic systems, and the revitalization of rural areas. Given that the transformative effects of emerging bioeconomic practices vary in scale and scope, their evaluation in the context of bioeconomic growth is essential for analyzing their efficiency and feasibility. The evaluation process should have a multidimensional approach, addressing technical and social factors, economic considerations, environmental expectations, and regulatory constraints. Taking complex nature of assessment problem into account, this study introduces a multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) framework to formulate evaluation of different alternatives under uncertain constraints setting. A hybrid combination of three different MCDA methods and new divergence measure for picture fuzzy sets are developed to estimate objective weights of criteria in assessing the trends concerning their multidimensional impacts. The framework is applied to the case of Türkiye, a country with substantial bioeconomic growth potential. A structured survey is conducted to assess current bioeconomy trends. Three biotechnological alternatives are evaluated against fourteen criteria, categorized into four dimensions: technological, economic, environmental, and social. The findings indicate that the use of biotechnology for enzyme production receives the highest prioritization across these dimensions, highlighting its strategic importance in advancing bioeconomic growth. While the case study of Türkiye demonstrates the model’s implementation and effectiveness, the analysis is further extended to offer policy recommendations—such as establishing a robust institutional framework that enhances local governance capacities.

本研究从多维角度考察了生物经济转型的影响。作为对可持续性挑战的日益增长的回应，生物经济正在推动经济和社会的动态结构变化。这一转变在创造就业、融入循环经济体系和振兴农村地区方面具有巨大潜力。鉴于新兴生物经济实践的变革效应在规模和范围上各不相同，在生物经济增长的背景下对其进行评估对于分析其效率和可行性至关重要。评价过程应采用多层面的方法，处理技术和社会因素、经济考虑、环境期望和管理限制。考虑到评估问题的复杂性，本文引入了一个多准则决策分析（MCDA）框架来制定不确定约束条件下不同方案的评估。本文提出了一种混合组合的三种不同的MCDA方法和一种新的图像模糊集散度测度，以估计在评估其多维影响趋势时标准的客观权重。该框架适用于斯里兰卡这个具有巨大生物经济增长潜力的国家。进行了一项结构化调查，以评估当前的生物经济趋势。根据14项标准对三种生物技术替代品进行评估，这些标准分为四个方面：技术、经济、环境和社会。研究结果表明，利用生物技术生产酶在这些方面得到了最高的优先考虑，突出了其在促进生物经济增长方面的战略重要性。虽然对t rkiye的案例研究证明了该模型的实施和有效性，但该分析进一步扩展到提供政策建议，例如建立一个强有力的制度框架，以增强地方治理能力。

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引用次数: 0

ESG in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE): Driving Forces for SDGs 动态随机一般均衡中的ESG：可持续发展目标的驱动力

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.015

Sheng Zhang , Yifu Yang , Yijie Zhao , Ya Wang , Jiming Hao

As global attention to sustainability grows, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into macroeconomic models is crucial for understanding their impact on achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, validated with a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, to assess how ESG factors act as driving forces for the SDGs. The findings reveal that ESG investments, particularly those enhancing environmental quality, involve a short-term trade-off with consumption but lead to long-term capital accumulation, improved production efficiency, and macroeconomic stability. Empirical analysis using data from China confirms the positive impact of ESG factors on consumption and capital. This study highlights the critical value of incorporating ESG into economic modeling, providing key quantitative insights for policymakers formulating strategies t hat promote sustainable development.

随着全球对可持续发展的关注日益增加，将环境、社会和治理（ESG）因素纳入宏观经济模型对于理解它们对实现可持续发展目标（sdg）的影响至关重要。本研究建立了一个动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，并通过结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型进行验证，以评估ESG因素如何成为可持续发展目标的驱动力。研究结果表明，ESG投资，特别是那些提高环境质量的投资，涉及与消费的短期权衡，但会导致长期资本积累，提高生产效率和宏观经济稳定。利用中国数据进行的实证分析证实了ESG因素对消费和资本的正向影响。本研究强调了将ESG纳入经济模型的关键价值，为决策者制定促进可持续发展的战略提供了关键的定量见解。

引用次数: 0

Spatio-temporal evolution and convergence analysis of China's land economy and marine economy green development synergy 中国陆地经济与海洋经济绿色发展协同效应的时空演化与收敛分析

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.014

Yanwei Wang , Kedong Yin , Xue Jin

The green development coordination of land economy (LE) and marine economy (ME) is an inevitable choice to respond to the requirements of sustainable development. This paper measures the level of LE and ME green development synergy in China from 2010 to 2023, and further analyzes the regional differences and convergence characteristics in coordination by using Dagum Gini coefficient method and convergence model. The research shows that LE and ME green development synergy level in all regions has risen to good coordination. The main source of the difference of LE and ME green development synergy has changed from hypervariation density to inter-regional differences, and the internal difference of southern marine economic circle is the largest. Only the northern marine economic circle exists

σ

convergence in stage 1, and it maintains stable

β

convergence with coastal area, which is affected by different factors in different periods. Therefore, make policy recommendations.

陆地经济与海洋经济的绿色协调发展是响应可持续发展要求的必然选择。本文测度了2010 - 2023年中国中小企业和中小企业绿色发展协同水平，并运用Dagum基尼系数法和收敛模型进一步分析了协调的区域差异和收敛特征。研究表明，各地区中小企业绿色发展协同水平已上升到良好的协调性水平。LE和ME绿色发展协同效应差异的主要来源已经从高密度变化转变为区域间差异，其中南部海洋经济圈内部差异最大。只有北方海洋经济圈在第一阶段存在σ辐合，与沿海地区保持稳定的β辐合，不同时期受到不同因素的影响。因此，提出政策建议。

引用次数: 0

International cost-push inflation and monetary policy in Brazil 巴西的国际成本推动型通货膨胀和货币政策

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.003

Guilherme Spinato Morlin

Exchange rate and commodity prices are often considered primary drivers of inflation in Brazil. However, international cost shocks from intermediate inputs are less studied. We estimate a Structural VAR model including a Foreign Producer Price Index, measuring cost changes of Brazilian trade partners in the period 1999–2020. Estimates show a positive effect of the Foreign PPI on the Brazilian Consumer Price Index, providing a relevant explanation for domestic inflation. Consistently with the empirical literature, our results underscore the Exchange Rate as the main determinant of the CPI. Our findings highlight the predominance of shocks related to the external sector (Exchange Rate, Foreign PPI, and Commodity Prices) in explaining inflation in Brazil. Since the international shocks and Foreign PPI are beyond the direct influence of the Central Bank, our results confirm that the inflation targeting regime in Brazil relied mainly on the exchange rate effect following changes in the interest rate.

汇率和商品价格通常被认为是巴西通货膨胀的主要驱动因素。然而，对中间投入的国际成本冲击的研究较少。我们估计了一个包含外国生产者价格指数的结构性VAR模型，测量了1999-2020年期间巴西贸易伙伴的成本变化。估计数据显示，国外PPI对巴西消费者价格指数（cpi）产生了积极影响，为国内通胀提供了相关解释。与实证文献一致，我们的结果强调汇率是CPI的主要决定因素。我们的研究结果强调了与外部部门（汇率、国外PPI和商品价格）相关的冲击在解释巴西通胀方面的主导地位。由于国际冲击和国外PPI超出了中央银行的直接影响，我们的研究结果证实，巴西的通货膨胀目制制主要依赖于利率变化后的汇率效应。

引用次数: 0

A model of maximum employment growth with a one-third profit share 一个以三分之一的利润份额实现最大就业增长的模型

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.013

Alain Villemeur

The economies of the European Union and the United States have been predominantly wage-driven in recent decades, according to most empirical studies on the Bhaduri–Marglin model (1990). Nevertheless, since the 1980s, European governments have operated under the neoclassical belief that full employment can be achieved by reducing labour costs and increasing the profit share of income, a strategy that has proven effective, though the reasons remain a mystery (Storm and Naastepad, 2017). How could this happen? To explain these developments, the proposed new model of growth and distribution integrates the principles of chain reaction, creative destruction, effective demand, and the significance of income distribution, as outlined by Kaldor, Schumpeter, Keynes, and Ricardo, respectively. It has been theoretically demonstrated that employment growth reaches its maximum when profit share accounts for one-third of income. This relationship is illustrated by the evolution of the U.S. economy throughout the 20th century and by 17 advanced economies since 1961, the earliest year for which precise data is available. Thus, wages drive output and productivity growth, while employment growth is driven by the profit share when it is below the one-third threshold, and by the wage share when it exceeds that point.

根据对Bhaduri-Marglin模型（1990）的大多数实证研究，近几十年来，欧盟和美国的经济主要是由工资驱动的。然而，自20世纪80年代以来，欧洲各国政府一直在新古典主义的信念下运作，即充分就业可以通过降低劳动力成本和增加收入的利润份额来实现，这一策略已被证明是有效的，尽管原因仍然是一个谜（Storm和Naastepad， 2017）。这是怎么发生的？为了解释这些发展，新提出的增长和分配模型整合了连锁反应、创造性破坏、有效需求和收入分配的重要性等原则，这些原则分别由卡尔多、熊彼特、凯恩斯和李嘉图提出。理论上已经证明，当利润占收入的三分之一时，就业增长达到最大。美国经济在整个20世纪的演变，以及自1961年以来17个发达经济体（1961年是可获得精确数据的最早年份）的演变，都说明了这种关系。因此，工资推动产出和生产率增长，而就业增长是由利润份额驱动的，当它低于三分之一的门槛时，由工资份额驱动，当它超过这一点时。

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引用次数: 0

The Supply chain spillovers of Pilot Free Trade Zones on GVC upgrading of Chinese firms 自由贸易试验区供应链溢出对中国企业全球价值链升级的影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.011

Yongming Huang , Xin Li , Changwei Liu

Pilot Free Trade Zones (PFTZs) represent a pivotal national strategy for advancing China’s high-quality opening up, which offer a quasi-natural experiment to test the supply chain spillovers. By constructing the panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms during the period of 2008 to 2016, this study examines the spillover effects of PFTZs on firms’ GVC positions through supply chain linkages utilizing DID method. The results indicate that PFTZs significantly improve GVC positions of both upstream and downstream firms. Specifically customers in PFTZs enhance their suppliers’ GVC positions by triggering innovation, while suppliers in PFTZs facilitate their customers’ GVC upgrading through cost reduction. These spillovers exhibit significant heterogeneity across financial constraints, market concentration, and regions. In addition, this study reveals that PFTZs exert significantly negative effects on GVC positions of downstream SMEs, whereas the positive effects on upstream SMEs’ GVC positions are not statistically significant. The implication of these findings is that greater policy attention should be paid to supply chain spillover mechanisms, considering their heterogeneous effects across customers, suppliers, and regions.

自由贸易试验区是中国推进高质量对外开放的关键国家战略，是检验供应链溢出效应的准自然实验。本文通过构建2008 - 2016年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，运用DID方法检验自贸区通过供应链联系对企业全球价值链地位的溢出效应。结果表明，自由贸易区显著提高了上下游企业的全球价值链地位。具体而言，保税区内的客户通过激发创新提升了供应商的全球价值链地位，而保税区内的供应商则通过降低成本促进了客户的全球价值链升级。这些溢出效应在金融约束、市场集中度和地区之间表现出显著的异质性。此外，本研究还发现自贸区对下游中小企业的全球价值链定位具有显著的负向影响，而对上游中小企业的全球价值链定位具有不显著的正向影响。这些发现的含义是，考虑到供应链溢出机制在客户、供应商和地区之间的异质效应，政策应给予更多的关注。

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引用次数: 0

Driving environmental, social, and governance excellence: The direct and indirect effects of intelligent transformation 推动环境、社会和治理卓越：智能转换的直接和间接影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.008

Yuhang Chen , Yilin Zhong , Feng Xu , Qinghua Zhang

Integrating intelligent technologies into corporate processes represents a transformative response to sustainable and responsible business practices. Despite its growing significance, the effects and mechanisms through which intelligent transformation impacts corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance remain insufficiently explored. Drawing on resource orchestration and dynamic capabilities theory, this study develops a theoretical framework to analyze how intelligent transformation empowers ESG improvement. Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2023, the empirical results confirm that intelligent transformation significantly enhances ESG performance. This improvement is realized through three key channels: enhancing information disclosure quality, fostering green innovation, and mitigating supply chain concentration. Furthermore, the effects are more pronounced among state-owned enterprises, technology- and capital-intensive corporations, corporations located in the eastern area of China, and those operating in highly marketized regions. A value chain analysis further reveals that intelligent transformation in research design, manufacturing, and marketing consistently drives ESG enhancements. These findings enrich the literature on intelligent transformation and provide actionable insights for corporations seeking to optimize their sustainability practices in an intelligence era.

将智能技术集成到企业流程中代表了对可持续和负责任的商业实践的变革性响应。尽管智能转型越来越重要，但其影响企业环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效的效果和机制仍未得到充分探索。利用资源编排和动态能力理论，本研究建立了一个理论框架来分析智能转型如何增强ESG改进。利用2009 - 2023年中国a股上市公司的综合数据集，实证结果证实，智能化转型显著提升了企业的ESG绩效。通过提高信息披露质量、培育绿色创新和降低供应链集中度三个关键渠道实现这一改善。此外，在国有企业、技术和资本密集型企业、位于中国东部地区的企业以及在高度市场化地区经营的企业中，这种影响更为明显。价值链分析进一步表明，研究设计、制造和营销方面的智能转型持续推动ESG的增强。这些发现丰富了关于智能转型的文献，并为寻求在智能时代优化其可持续性实践的企业提供了可操作的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Innovation and industry growth under private and public ownership: non-creative destruction versus welfare maximisation 公私所有制下的创新与产业增长：非创造性破坏vs福利最大化

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.010

Johan Willner, Sonja Grönblom

We analyse the impact of ownership, market structure, and quality of governance on sustainable industry growth as driven by process innovations generated by salaried agents under asymmetric information. The agent faces uncertainty because of performance-related pay and random punishments, which can be imposed by the employer (as arguably in the case of Nokia’s demise as a producer of mobile phones) or by external forces. Intermediate concentration yields the highest growth when firms maximise profits, but innovation costs increase with the market size. This can lead to monopolisation, and hence to non-creative destruction. A welfare-maximising public monopoly outperforms the oligopoly, but not necessarily under bad governance. An oligopoly can reach reasonable growth, but only under stringent conditions if the discount rate is low. Public ownership might then be an attractive alternative, but interventions to improve governance and to ensure decent working conditions, job security, and long-termism may then be necessary. (#149)

我们分析了在信息不对称条件下，受薪代理人产生的流程创新驱动下，所有权、市场结构和治理质量对可持续行业增长的影响。代理人面临着不确定性，因为与绩效挂钩的薪酬和随机惩罚，这些惩罚可能是由雇主施加的（正如诺基亚作为手机生产商的消亡案例中所争论的那样），也可能是由外部力量施加的。当企业利润最大化时，中间集中度产生最高的增长，但创新成本随着市场规模的增加而增加。这可能导致垄断，从而导致非创造性破坏。福利最大化的公共垄断优于寡头垄断，但在治理不善的情况下未必如此。寡头垄断可以达到合理的增长，但只有在贴现率较低的严格条件下。到那时，公有制可能是一个有吸引力的选择，但改善治理、确保体面工作条件、工作保障和长期主义的干预措施可能是必要的。(# 149)

引用次数: 0

From energy consumption control to carbon emission control in fossil and renewable energy rich regions: A general equilibrium analysis of Inner Mongolia 从能源消费控制到碳排放控制：内蒙古的一般均衡分析

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.007

Qiushi Huang , Yong Geng , Zhongjue Yu

China has proposed to shift from energy consumption control to carbon emission control. However, little attention has been paid to its impact on Fossil and Renewable Energy-rich Regions (FRERs). This study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impacts of such a transition policy in Inner Mongolia – a typical FRER. Several scenarios are established to implement a nationwide Emissions Trading System (ETS) and target control policies on energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results show that promoting low carbon transition through ETS would help Inner Mongolia peak its carbon emission before 2030 and promote GDP, with a maximum 0.19 % rise in 2030. The target control policies would distort the optimal allocation of abatement burdens, leading to economic losses which would be more obvious under the context of carbon emissions control. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers to coordinate national and subnational carbon abatement policies and promote low carbon transition.

中国提出从控制能源消耗转向控制碳排放。然而，它对化石和可再生能源丰富地区（FRERs）的影响很少受到关注。本研究采用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来评估这种过渡政策在内蒙古的影响-一个典型的frr。为实施全国性的碳排放交易系统（ETS）和目标控制能源消耗和碳排放政策，建立了几种方案。结果表明，通过ETS推动低碳转型将有助于内蒙古在2030年前实现碳排放峰值，并促进GDP增长，2030年GDP增幅最高可达0.19%。目标控制政策会扭曲减排负担的最优配置，导致经济损失，在碳排放控制背景下经济损失更为明显。这些发现为政策制定者协调国家和地方碳减排政策和促进低碳转型提供了重要见解。

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引用次数: 0

Geopolitical risks and the effectiveness of the EU funds: Heterogeneity in country impact 地缘政治风险与欧盟基金的有效性：国家影响的异质性

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.006

R. Arbolino , R. Boffardi , L. De Simone , P. Di Caro

Despite geopolitical issues are becoming pervasive elements in economic decisions worldwide, current evidence is limited on the impact of geopolitical risks on the effectiveness of structural policies. This paper assembles new data on the Cohesion Policy and Next Generation funds to study the impact of geopolitical risks originating from China and the US on the effectiveness of structural policies in the European Union. The application of a heterogeneous modelling framework allows for the measurement of country-specific impact. Our results, which are robust to alternative specifications, suggest that a raise of geopolitical tensions from the US and China translates in a reduction of the effectiveness of the cohesion funds from -13 % to -30 %. The main negative impact is concentrated in export-oriented and in the Central and Eastern countries. We also document that a raise of geopolitical risks diminishes the expected returns of the NGEU funds. The policy implications of our study are finally discussed.

尽管地缘政治问题正在成为全球经济决策中普遍存在的因素，但目前关于地缘政治风险对结构性政策有效性影响的证据有限。本文收集了欧盟“凝聚力政策”和“下一代基金”的新数据，研究了中美地缘政治风险对欧盟结构性政策有效性的影响。采用异质建模框架可以衡量具体国家的影响。我们的研究结果表明，美国和中国地缘政治紧张局势的加剧导致凝聚力基金的有效性从- 13%降至- 30%。主要的负面影响集中在出口型国家和中东部国家。我们还证明，地缘政治风险的提高降低了NGEU基金的预期回报。最后讨论了本研究的政策含义。

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