Pub Date : 2024-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.017
Joseph Keneck Massil , Sosson Tadadjeu , Urbain Thierry Yogo
This study analyses the effect of global economic uncertainty on household consumption growth in a sample of 87 developing countries over the period 2000–2019. Using the two-step system generalized method of moments, we show that an increase in economic uncertainty is, on average, associated with lower household consumption. This result is robust to the use of an alternative measure of uncertainty, outliers’ exclusion, an alternative estimations approach, and use of an alternative data structure. However, the results show that the effect of uncertainty appears to be driven by sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Similarly, countries that have received debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative are more vulnerable to the effect of uncertainty on private consumption. This study also finds that remittances, foreign aid, and social protection moderate the adverse effect of economic uncertainty on household consumption. These results highlight the need to implement tax breaks to facilitate remittances from sending to receiving countries to support household consumption during uncertainty shocks and to identify reliable partners to enable aid in recipient countries to reach private and public consumers.
{"title":"Uncertainty and household consumption in developing countries","authors":"Joseph Keneck Massil , Sosson Tadadjeu , Urbain Thierry Yogo","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyses the effect of global economic uncertainty on household consumption growth in a sample of 87 developing countries over the period 2000–2019. Using the two-step system generalized method of moments, we show that an increase in economic uncertainty is, on average, associated with lower household consumption. This result is robust to the use of an alternative measure of uncertainty, outliers’ exclusion, an alternative estimations approach, and use of an alternative data structure. However, the results show that the effect of uncertainty appears to be driven by sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Similarly, countries that have received debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative are more vulnerable to the effect of uncertainty on private consumption. This study also finds that remittances, foreign aid, and social protection moderate the adverse effect of economic uncertainty on household consumption. These results highlight the need to implement tax breaks to facilitate remittances from sending to receiving countries to support household consumption during uncertainty shocks and to identify reliable partners to enable aid in recipient countries to reach private and public consumers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 51-64"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143360812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.015
Umed Temursho, Matthias Weitzel, Rafael Garaffa
This paper presents a new approach for projecting (updating) household-level consumption expenditures in line with the existing macro-projections on aggregate consumption and demographic dynamics. Our macro-micro modelling exercises reveal that the use of outdated microdata could lead to an overestimation of direct climate policy costs as well as benefits from compensatory measures. In terms of distributional impacts, using unadjusted microdata may overstate the regressivity of costs and the progressivity of after-transfer welfare impacts. Our analysis of inequality dynamics underscores the relevance of accounting for changes in the population age structure. Overall, the results highlight the importance of using fully consistent macro and micro datasets in policy evaluations. The study further emphasizes the value of producing consumer expenditure projections to quantify the relative uncertainties (robustness) of results in relation to (un)expected shifts in household consumption patterns, assessments of different policy instruments, and comparisons of diverse policy-relevant metrics.
{"title":"Projection of household-level consumption expenditures in a macro-micro consistent framework","authors":"Umed Temursho, Matthias Weitzel, Rafael Garaffa","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a new approach for projecting (updating) household-level consumption expenditures in line with the existing macro-projections on aggregate consumption and demographic dynamics. Our macro-micro modelling exercises reveal that the use of outdated microdata could lead to an overestimation of direct climate policy costs as well as benefits from compensatory measures. In terms of distributional impacts, using unadjusted microdata may overstate the regressivity of costs and the progressivity of after-transfer welfare impacts. Our analysis of inequality dynamics underscores the relevance of accounting for changes in the population age structure. Overall, the results highlight the importance of using fully consistent macro and micro datasets in policy evaluations. The study further emphasizes the value of producing consumer expenditure projections to quantify the relative uncertainties (robustness) of results in relation to (un)expected shifts in household consumption patterns, assessments of different policy instruments, and comparisons of diverse policy-relevant metrics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 112-135"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.018
Wenwan Jin , Shengjun Zhu , Deyu Li , Canfei He
Developing economies often face challenges in catching up and leapfrogging due to the drawbacks of industrial restructuring. This study identifies the geographical stickiness of high-complexity industries and proposes an optimal industrial diversification strategy using a thorough examination of industry entry and maintenance at the global level. The findings indicate that the mechanisms driving the geographical stickiness of complex industries are linked to their reliance on a larger number of related complex industries, as explained by the “capabilities approach”. Moreover, we encourage developing countries to strategically diversify into a small group of related and inter-dependent high-complexity industries simultaneously, a process called “strategic unrelated diversification”, thereby increasing the probability of industrial transformation. These findings have significant implications for explaining why certain countries struggle with industrial restructuring and how to facilitate industrial upgrading effectively.
{"title":"Transcending the geographical stickiness of complex economic activities via strategic unrelated diversification","authors":"Wenwan Jin , Shengjun Zhu , Deyu Li , Canfei He","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developing economies often face challenges in catching up and leapfrogging due to the drawbacks of industrial restructuring. This study identifies the geographical stickiness of high-complexity industries and proposes an optimal industrial diversification strategy using a thorough examination of industry entry and maintenance at the global level. The findings indicate that the mechanisms driving the geographical stickiness of complex industries are linked to their reliance on a larger number of related complex industries, as explained by the “capabilities approach”. Moreover, we encourage developing countries to strategically diversify into a small group of related and inter-dependent high-complexity industries simultaneously, a process called “strategic unrelated diversification”, thereby increasing the probability of industrial transformation. These findings have significant implications for explaining why certain countries struggle with industrial restructuring and how to facilitate industrial upgrading effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 65-76"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143345798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.014
Uwe Neumann
Digital change is often said to lead to large-scale job losses. Using data from administrative sources in Germany, this study examines the extent to which adaptation to digital change has affected regional employment growth and disparities over the past decade. The analysis confirms previous research according to which increases in productivity coincide with regional job growth rather than decline. Incorporating various indicators of digitalisation and automation into a model of industry-specific regional job growth shows that local labour markets with very different characteristics – regions with strong manufacturing clusters on the one hand and large cities on the other – have achieved employment growth despite high automation exposure. While the study highlights regional differentials with respect to the adaptation to technological change, less prosperous regions may face a much greater challenge in realising job creation potentials. The results argue against policy efforts aimed at “protecting” jobs from digitalisation and automation.
{"title":"Digital transformation, employment change and the adaptation of regions in Germany","authors":"Uwe Neumann","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digital change is often said to lead to large-scale job losses. Using data from administrative sources in Germany, this study examines the extent to which adaptation to digital change has affected regional employment growth and disparities over the past decade. The analysis confirms previous research according to which increases in productivity coincide with regional job growth rather than decline. Incorporating various indicators of digitalisation and automation into a model of industry-specific regional job growth shows that local labour markets with very different characteristics – regions with strong manufacturing clusters on the one hand and large cities on the other – have achieved employment growth despite high automation exposure. While the study highlights regional differentials with respect to the adaptation to technological change, less prosperous regions may face a much greater challenge in realising job creation potentials. The results argue against policy efforts aimed at “protecting” jobs from digitalisation and automation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 37-50"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-11DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.013
Samuele Bibi , Pankaj Avinash Chandorkar
Since the beginning of the new millennium Peru has often been described as the Latin American economic miracle for its sustained achieved growth and stability results. However, recent works highlighted the potential hidden financial fragility that Peru might be subject to, especially at the institutional level, considering the non financial private sector. To investigate such a phenomenon in more details, we build Minskyan indicators to study a sample of 59 companies listed in the Peruvian stock market. Our analysis detects different financial fragility exposures of those firms at a sectoral level and it empirically studies the drivers of indebtedness growth at an aggregate level during the 2003–2023 period. In the context of the detected financial fragility, this paper serves as an academic ground in enquiring theoretical key questions and providing relevant highlights for the policymakers of Peru.
{"title":"Minsky in Peru-unveiling the hidden financial fragility at a sectoral level","authors":"Samuele Bibi , Pankaj Avinash Chandorkar","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the beginning of the new millennium Peru has often been described as the Latin American economic miracle for its sustained achieved growth and stability results. However, recent works highlighted the potential hidden financial fragility that Peru might be subject to, especially at the institutional level, considering the non financial private sector. To investigate such a phenomenon in more details, we build Minskyan indicators to study a sample of 59 companies listed in the Peruvian stock market. Our analysis detects different financial fragility exposures of those firms at a sectoral level and it empirically studies the drivers of indebtedness growth at an aggregate level during the 2003–2023 period. In the context of the detected financial fragility, this paper serves as an academic ground in enquiring theoretical key questions and providing relevant highlights for the policymakers of Peru.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 77-88"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143345796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-10DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.011
Raffaello Bronzini , Anna Giunta , Eleonora Pierucci , Marco Sforza
The paper investigates the effects of the adoption of advanced digital technologies (i.e., Industry 4.0) on firms’ credit conditions through a signaling effect. The empirical analysis exploits microdata from the Bank of Italy’s “Survey on Manufacturing and Service Firms” available for the period 2015–2019, integrated with balance sheet information provided by Cerved. We use a binary endogenous treatment effect model and IV estimation strategy to determine the average effect of digital technology adoption on firms’ financing variables. The results can be summarized as follows: (i) the adoption of digital technologies (DT) lowers the likelihood of being credit rationed; (ii) the adoption of DT is associated with a higher level of leverage but with a lower cost of debt; (iii) the increased firm’s debt is associated with a composition effect resulting in an expansion of bank debt and a reduction in financial debt. These results, which are robust to a number of checks, suggest that digital technology adoption improves firms’ financial conditions, with lower constraints and lower costs, and also influences the relationship between the firm and the financial institutions.
{"title":"More technology, more loans? How advanced digital technologies influence firms’ financing conditions","authors":"Raffaello Bronzini , Anna Giunta , Eleonora Pierucci , Marco Sforza","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper investigates the effects of the adoption of advanced digital technologies (i.e., Industry 4.0) on firms’ credit conditions through a signaling effect. The empirical analysis exploits microdata from the Bank of Italy’s “Survey on Manufacturing and Service Firms” available for the period 2015–2019, integrated with balance sheet information provided by Cerved. We use a binary endogenous treatment effect model and IV estimation strategy to determine the average effect of digital technology adoption on firms’ financing variables. The results can be summarized as follows: (i) the adoption of digital technologies (DT) lowers the likelihood of being credit rationed; (ii) the adoption of DT is associated with a higher level of leverage but with a lower cost of debt; (iii) the increased firm’s debt is associated with a composition effect resulting in an expansion of bank debt and a reduction in financial debt. These results, which are robust to a number of checks, suggest that digital technology adoption improves firms’ financial conditions, with lower constraints and lower costs, and also influences the relationship between the firm and the financial institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"72 ","pages":"Pages 47-66"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143326161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.010
Dario Guarascio , Jelena Reljic , Roman Stöllinger
This study explores exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and employment patterns in Europe. First, we provide a thorough mapping of European regions focusing on the structural factors—such as sectoral specialisation, R&D capacity, productivity and workforce skills—that may shape diffusion as well as economic and employment effects of AI. To capture these differences, we conduct a cluster analysis which group EU regions in four distinct clusters: high-tech service and capital centres, advanced manufacturing core, southern and eastern periphery. We then discuss potential employment implications of AI in these regions, arguing that while regions with strong innovation systems may experience employment gains as AI complements existing capabilities and production systems, others are likely to face structural barriers that could eventually exacerbate regional disparities in the EU, with peripheral areas losing further ground.
{"title":"Diverging paths: AI exposure and employment across European regions","authors":"Dario Guarascio , Jelena Reljic , Roman Stöllinger","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and employment patterns in Europe. First, we provide a thorough mapping of European regions focusing on the structural factors—such as sectoral specialisation, R&D capacity, productivity and workforce skills—that may shape diffusion as well as economic and employment effects of AI. To capture these differences, we conduct a cluster analysis which group EU regions in four distinct clusters: high-tech service and capital centres, advanced manufacturing core, southern and eastern periphery. We then discuss potential employment implications of AI in these regions, arguing that while regions with strong innovation systems may experience employment gains as AI complements existing capabilities and production systems, others are likely to face structural barriers that could eventually exacerbate regional disparities in the EU, with peripheral areas losing further ground.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 11-24"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.004
Vicente Ferreira , Alexandre Abreu , Francisco Louçã
Over the period of 2021–2024, inflation has resurged and then retreated in most industrialized countries. Economists were divided into two main camps: team transitory, which argued that inflationary pressures were primarily cost-push and would tend to fade away as supply disruptions eased, and team permanent, which viewed it as a predominantly demand-pull process and warned about the risks of persistent second-round effects associated with an overheated labor market. This paper covers this theoretical debate on the origins of inflation and contrasts it to the available empirical evidence for the Euro Area, laying out several inconsistencies in the New Keynesian argument proposed by team permanent. Since that was, nevertheless, the predominant interpretation among central bankers, including the ECB, this paper also discusses the impacts of monetary policy decisions informed by the New Keynesian view, arguing that there is good reason to believe that it has had regressive consequences in terms of the functional distribution of income as well as differentiated impacts across Euro Area core and periphery countries.
{"title":"The rise and fall of inflation in the Euro Area (2021-2024): A heterodox perspective","authors":"Vicente Ferreira , Alexandre Abreu , Francisco Louçã","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the period of 2021–2024, inflation has resurged and then retreated in most industrialized countries. Economists were divided into two main camps: team transitory, which argued that inflationary pressures were primarily cost-push and would tend to fade away as supply disruptions eased, and team permanent, which viewed it as a predominantly demand-pull process and warned about the risks of persistent second-round effects associated with an overheated labor market. This paper covers this theoretical debate on the origins of inflation and contrasts it to the available empirical evidence for the Euro Area, laying out several inconsistencies in the New Keynesian argument proposed by team permanent. Since that was, nevertheless, the predominant interpretation among central bankers, including the ECB, this paper also discusses the impacts of monetary policy decisions informed by the New Keynesian view, arguing that there is good reason to believe that it has had regressive consequences in terms of the functional distribution of income as well as differentiated impacts across Euro Area core and periphery countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"72 ","pages":"Pages 103-110"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143326157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.012
Chonghui Zhang , Cong Wang , Huanhuan Jin , Mo Xu , Tomas Balezentis , Leonardo Agnusdei
Green finance, by adding environmental considerations into financial products, guides industries toward low-carbon transformation and quickens the decline of carbon emissions across society. However, existing studies fail to identify the spatial correlation effects and the driving mechanisms of their impact, so in order to further clarify the causal pathways of the impact of green finance on carbon emissions, this paper investigates the influence of green finance on carbon emissions through the application of the double threshold model and the spatial Durbin model. By drawing on provincial-level data from China covering 2012 to 2021, this paper uncovers regional heterogeneity in the influence of green finance on carbon emissions. Particularly, while green finance in the eastern and western regions substantially limits carbon emissions, it ironically fuels carbon emissions in the central region. Based on this finding, the double threshold model is used to investigate further the abrupt process of green finance on carbon emissions from “nonsignificant inhibition - significant promotion - significant inhibition.” In addition, this work verifies that green finance employs a spatial inhibitory influence on carbon emissions, where an improvement in the level of green finance in the vicinity controls carbon emissions within the region. Through mechanism testing, this paper recognizes the upgrade of the industrial structure in the region as an intermediary factor favorable to attaining carbon emission reduction. By supplying empirical evidence, this paper facilitates a more accurate assessment of the influence of green finance on carbon emissions and provides a quantitative basis for green finance policies to help China meet its dual carbon goals.
{"title":"The impact of green finance on energy transition and carbon emission targets: Exploring the double threshold and spatial spillover effects among the regions","authors":"Chonghui Zhang , Cong Wang , Huanhuan Jin , Mo Xu , Tomas Balezentis , Leonardo Agnusdei","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Green finance, by adding environmental considerations into financial products, guides industries toward low-carbon transformation and quickens the decline of carbon emissions across society. However, existing studies fail to identify the spatial correlation effects and the driving mechanisms of their impact, so in order to further clarify the causal pathways of the impact of green finance on carbon emissions, this paper investigates the influence of green finance on carbon emissions through the application of the double threshold model and the spatial Durbin model. By drawing on provincial-level data from China covering 2012 to 2021, this paper uncovers regional heterogeneity in the influence of green finance on carbon emissions. Particularly, while green finance in the eastern and western regions substantially limits carbon emissions, it ironically fuels carbon emissions in the central region. Based on this finding, the double threshold model is used to investigate further the abrupt process of green finance on carbon emissions from “nonsignificant inhibition - significant promotion - significant inhibition.” In addition, this work verifies that green finance employs a spatial inhibitory influence on carbon emissions, where an improvement in the level of green finance in the vicinity controls carbon emissions within the region. Through mechanism testing, this paper recognizes the upgrade of the industrial structure in the region as an intermediary factor favorable to attaining carbon emission reduction. By supplying empirical evidence, this paper facilitates a more accurate assessment of the influence of green finance on carbon emissions and provides a quantitative basis for green finance policies to help China meet its dual carbon goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-08DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.011
Chao Fang , Peng Wu , Xiaoyan Yu , Chao Zhang
Trade liberalization is often a contentious policy for developing countries. This paper investigates how China successfully integrated into global IT production and fostered innovation through trade liberalization under the Information Technology Agreement. Empirical results indicate that the reduction in tariffs on IT products had an asymmetric impact on China's trade, significantly increasing imports of capital and intermediate goods while modestly boosting exports, primarily of consumer goods. Firms in the IT sector, as well as those in upstream and downstream sectors, have increased their R&D intensity following the liberalization of IT products. Further analysis indicates that the growth in R&D intensity stems from high-productivity firms, followed by medium-productivity firms.
{"title":"IT liberalization, trade expansion, and firm innovation: Evidence from China","authors":"Chao Fang , Peng Wu , Xiaoyan Yu , Chao Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trade liberalization is often a contentious policy for developing countries. This paper investigates how China successfully integrated into global IT production and fostered innovation through trade liberalization under the Information Technology Agreement. Empirical results indicate that the reduction in tariffs on IT products had an asymmetric impact on China's trade, significantly increasing imports of capital and intermediate goods while modestly boosting exports, primarily of consumer goods. Firms in the IT sector, as well as those in upstream and downstream sectors, have increased their R&D intensity following the liberalization of IT products. Further analysis indicates that the growth in R&D intensity stems from high-productivity firms, followed by medium-productivity firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"73 ","pages":"Pages 25-36"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143346352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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