Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Trade liberalization of IT products and domestic value-added ratio of service exports: A quasi-natural experiment based on the ITA expansion 信息技术产品贸易自由化与服务出口国内增值比率：基于ITA扩展的准自然实验

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.002

Jiayang Zou , Ming Zhang , Xiangfei Kong

Trade in services is rapidly expanding its influence around the world and has become an important link for economic cooperation and structural change among countries. Countries are increasingly integrated into the service global value chain (GVC), and how to absorb trade gains more efficiently in the process of exporting services has become the focus of their attention. The expansion of the Information Technology Agreement (ITA-2) promotes trade liberalization of information technology (IT) products among participating countries, which could impact service value chains. The theoretical analysis of this paper shows that the trade liberalization of IT products was conducive to increasing the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) of service exports. The improvement in productivity and the localization of information service procurement constituted the specific mechanism of this connection. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of ITA-2, this paper employs empirical analysis of data from 74 countries (or regions) between 2009 and 2020 to validate the theoretical hypothesis. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy effects were significant in low- and middle-income countries and Asian and European countries. Sectors including transportation, professional activities and education etc. were affected by the policy. The moderating effect reveals that the ICT development level and downstreamness of the value chain of countries positively moderated the policy effect. The research in this paper can provide a reference for developing countries to explore how to occupy a favourable position in the distribution of service GVC by opening up to the outside world.

服务贸易在世界范围内的影响迅速扩大，已成为各国经济合作和结构变革的重要纽带。各国日益融入服务全球价值链，如何在服务出口过程中更有效地吸收贸易收益已成为各国关注的焦点。信息技术协定（ITA-2）的扩大化促进了参与国之间信息技术产品的贸易自由化，这可能影响服务价值链。本文的理论分析表明，信息技术产品贸易自由化有利于提高服务出口的国内增值比（DVAR）。生产力的提高和信息服务采购的本土化构成了这种联系的具体机制。本文基于ITA-2的准自然实验，对2009 - 2020年74个国家（或地区）的数据进行实证分析，验证理论假设。异质性分析表明，政策效应在中低收入国家和亚洲、欧洲国家显著。交通、专业活动和教育等行业受到该政策的影响。国家信息通信技术发展水平和价值链下游正向调节政策效应。本文的研究可以为发展中国家探索如何通过对外开放在服务业全球价值链布局中占据有利地位提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Structural changes and trend evolution of China’s integration into global value chains under heterogeneous trade modes 异质性贸易模式下中国融入全球价值链的结构变迁与趋势演变

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.004

Qiuping Li , Sanmang Wu , Jianchun Fang , Quanwen Liu , Shantong Li

Global Value Chains (GVCs) division of labor has become a crucial link connecting global economies. The increasing fragmentation and specialization of GVCs necessitate a precise evaluation of countries’ participation in international production networks. As structural changes in GVCs intensify, China’s integration into global production, in terms of both participation and position, has undergone profound transformation. This study examines the structural characteristics and temporal evolution of China’s GVC integration from the heterogeneous perspective of general trade and processing trade. It explores inter-industry production linkages and China’s value chain relationships with upstream and downstream trading partners. The key findings are as follows. First, most Chinese manufacturing sectors engage in GVCs primarily through backward linkages, relying on foreign-sourced intermediate inputs in export production, thus remaining in relatively downstream segments of the value chain. Nonetheless, there is a notable upward trend in China’s GVC position, indicating gradual structural upgrading. Second, China’s manufacturing GVC trade is increasingly diversified. The production network has evolved from regional concentration toward broader global diffusion, with deepening interdependence, particularly between China and other developing economies. Third, there has been a marked shift from processing trade to general trade, accompanied by distinct sectoral composition and GVC integration patterns across trade modes. This transformation is reshaping China’s trade regime and the depth of its international cooperation within GVCs. These results provide important policy implications for China’s efforts to optimize its trade structure, enhance its position in global production networks, and promote industrial upgrading through strategic integration into GVCs.

全球价值链分工已成为连接全球经济的重要纽带。全球价值链日益分散和专业化，需要对各国参与国际生产网络的情况进行精确评估。随着全球价值链结构变化的加剧，中国融入全球生产的参与和地位都发生了深刻转变。本文从一般贸易和加工贸易的异质性视角考察了中国全球价值链整合的结构特征和时间演化。它探讨了行业间的生产联系以及中国与上下游贸易伙伴的价值链关系。主要发现如下。首先，大多数中国制造业主要通过后向联系参与全球价值链，在出口生产中依赖来自国外的中间投入，因此处于价值链的相对下游。尽管如此，中国在全球价值链中的地位仍有明显上升趋势，表明结构正在逐步升级。二是中国制造业全球价值链贸易日趋多元化。生产网络已经从区域集中发展到更广泛的全球扩散，相互依存日益加深，特别是在中国和其他发展中经济体之间。三是加工贸易向一般贸易转变明显，行业构成和全球价值链跨贸易方式融合格局明显。这一转变正在重塑中国的贸易体制和全球价值链内的国际合作深度。研究结果为中国优化贸易结构、提升在全球生产网络中的地位、通过战略融入全球价值链促进产业升级提供了重要的政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial Intelligence (AI), innovation, and economy 人工智能（AI）、创新和经济

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.002

Zhifu Mi , Mario Pianta

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the landscape of our economy and society, significantly impacting industries such as automotive, finance, manufacturing, and healthcare. As a revolutionary innovation in computer science, AI is poised to become a central component of modern society in the coming decades, presenting both opportunities and risks to national and global economies. This virtual special issue features a selection of academic articles that examine the impact of AI on the economy and society from three key perspectives: employment, enterprise efficiency, and innovation.

人工智能（AI）正在迅速改变我们的经济和社会格局，对汽车、金融、制造业和医疗保健等行业产生重大影响。作为计算机科学领域的革命性创新，人工智能将在未来几十年成为现代社会的核心组成部分，为国家和全球经济带来机遇和风险。这期虚拟特刊精选了一些学术文章，从就业、企业效率和创新三个关键角度审视了人工智能对经济和社会的影响。

引用次数: 0

Organizational dispersion and economic performance in multi-unit firms 多单位企业的组织分散与经济绩效

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.010

Giulio Cainelli , Valentina Giannini , Donato Iacobucci

This paper examines how organizational dispersion affects the economic performance of business units in multi-unit firms. When expanding operations, firms must balance the advantages of close oversight and control with the need to place units in locations that provide strategic resources or better access to markets. While managers are expected to weigh these trade-offs carefully, they may underestimate the challenges of managing and coordinating dispersed units, which can lead to inefficiencies that negatively impact performance. Using a large sample of 40,946 European business groups controlling approximately 107,000 subsidiaries, we analyze the factors that influence subsidiary performance in the context of organizational dispersion. Our findings suggest that organizational dispersion, measured as spatial distance between the headquarter and its business units, has a negative impact on subsidiary performance. Finally, we explore some potential mechanisms behind these effects.

本文研究了多单位企业中组织分散对业务单位经济绩效的影响。在扩大业务时，企业必须在密切监督和控制的优势与将部门设在提供战略资源或更容易进入市场的地点之间取得平衡。虽然管理者应该仔细权衡这些权衡，但他们可能低估了管理和协调分散单位的挑战，这可能导致效率低下，对绩效产生负面影响。本文以40,946家欧洲企业集团为样本，分析了组织分散背景下影响子公司绩效的因素。我们的研究结果表明，组织分散（以总部与其业务单位之间的空间距离衡量）对子公司绩效有负面影响。最后，我们探讨了这些效应背后的一些潜在机制。

引用次数: 0

U.S. Trade policy and the restructuring of global production networks: A case study of industrial relocation from China to India 美国贸易政策与全球生产网络重组：以中国向印度产业转移为例

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.009

Xiaoxu Zhang , Jiale Li , Yuze Li , Kunfu Zhu , Jian Xu , Shouyang Wang

Trade policy uncertainty under the Trump administration has triggered structural shifts in global production networks, with uneven effects across emerging economies. Using U.S.China reciprocal tariffs as a case, we apply a global multi-regional input-output model coupled with trade network analysis to assess short-term disruptions and medium-term relocation trends. Our findings highlight three key patterns: (1) Short-term reciprocal tariffs cause uneven shocks, with economies more integrated into U.S.centered networks experiencing milder impacts than China-linked ones; (2) Medium-term restructuring benefits countries closer to advanced economies, with India gaining prominence as a manufacturing and supply chain participant; (3) Sectoral shifts show India's growth in technology-intensive sectors alongside contraction in traditional East Asian hubs. These findings indicate that trade policy uncertainty serves as a structural catalyst for reconfiguring global production, driven not solely by cost but also by alignment, resilience, and institutional capacity.

特朗普政府领导下的贸易政策不确定性引发了全球生产网络的结构性转变，对新兴经济体的影响不均衡。我们以美中互惠关税为例，运用全球多区域投入产出模型，结合贸易网络分析来评估短期中断和中期迁移趋势。我们的研究结果突出了三个关键模式：(1)短期互惠关税造成的冲击不均衡，与中国相关的经济体相比，更融入以美国为中心的网络的经济体受到的影响较小；(2)中期结构调整有利于接近发达经济体的国家，印度作为制造业和供应链参与者的地位日益突出；(3)行业变化表明，印度在技术密集型行业增长的同时，传统东亚中心却在收缩。这些发现表明，贸易政策的不确定性是重新配置全球生产的结构性催化剂，不仅受到成本的驱动，还受到一致性、弹性和制度能力的驱动。

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引用次数: 0

Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby? 经济发展与机会不平等：库兹涅茨与了不起的盖茨比？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.006

Francisco H.G. Ferreira , Domenico Moramarco , Vito Peragine

According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.

根据库兹涅茨假说，随着国家的发展，不平等首先倾向于增加，然后减少。无论是否得到实证证实，这条倒u型库兹涅茨曲线作为一种程式化的“事实”，几十年来一直塑造着关于经济发展和收入不平等的论述。在本文中，我们调查了人均国民收入和机会不平等之间是否存在类似的关系：与遗传的个人环境（如性别、种族和家庭背景）相关的不平等。从经验上看，机会不平等与收入不平等呈正相关（这种关系被称为“了不起的盖茨比”曲线），因此机会不平等与“发展”之间的关系预计也会呈现出同样的倒u形。我们认为机会曲线的库兹涅茨不等式的存在可能是发展、收入不平等和机会不平等之间的“三角”关系的结果。然后，我们利用新发布的全球机会和流动性估计数据库，主要在横断面背景下，对这种“三角”关系进行了新的阐释。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing structural changes in factor contributions to green productivity growth in China's grain sector 评估中国粮食部门绿色生产力增长要素的结构性变化

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.008

Ruixue Wang , Jiancheng Chen , Ze Han , Chao An , Wanting Bai , Xiangzheng Deng

This paper extends the analytical framework for measuring total factor productivity (TFP) in grain production by incorporating the environmental constraints related to pollution emissions. Employing a growth accounting approach, we decompose environmentally adjusted grain output growth into the contributions of labor, productive capital, and natural resource capital. This comprehensive indicator system provides a more nuanced understanding of the drivers of grain output growth while evaluating its long-term sustainability. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021, the analysis integrates pollution emissions associated with grain production. The findings reveal a gradual decline in the dependence on agricultural chemicals, indicating a structural shift from traditional factor inputs toward green total factor productivity (GTFP) as the main engine of growth. Industry structural, human capital, and income level are shown to influence to the GTFP growth, suggesting that social and institutional factors play a key role in shaping GTFP trajectories. Significant regional heterogeneity is observed in both the contributions of production factors and their decomposition characteristics. In eastern regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, the annual average growth in grain output is primarily driven by GTFP improvements. Labor input contributes significantly to more developed regions including Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Chongqing. Conversely, productive capital input plays a greater role in the central, western, and northeastern regions, with natural resource capital makes relatively higher contributions in the northeastern provinces.

本文通过纳入与污染排放相关的环境约束，扩展了测量粮食生产全要素生产率（TFP）的分析框架。采用增长核算方法，我们将环境调整后的粮食产量增长分解为劳动力、生产资本和自然资源资本的贡献。这一综合指标体系在评估粮食产量增长的长期可持续性的同时，更细致地了解了粮食产量增长的驱动因素。利用2000年至2021年中国31个省份的面板数据，该分析整合了与粮食生产相关的污染排放。研究结果显示，中国对农用化学品的依赖程度逐渐下降，表明中国经济正从传统要素投入向绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）作为主要增长引擎的结构性转变。产业结构、人力资本和收入水平对GTFP增长产生影响，表明社会和制度因素在GTFP发展轨迹中起着关键作用。生产要素的贡献及其分解特征均存在显著的区域异质性。在北京、天津和上海等东部地区，粮食产量的年平均增长主要是由GTFP的提高推动的。北京、上海、浙江、福建、重庆等发达地区的劳动力投入贡献显著。相反，生产性资本投入在中部、西部和东北地区的贡献更大，其中自然资源资本在东北省份的贡献相对较高。

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引用次数: 0

Do indebtedness, income inequality and asset dynamics affect household consumption? Evidence from 11 OECD countries 负债、收入不平等和资产动态会影响家庭消费吗？来自11个经合组织国家的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.007

Ján Boháčik

This study examines the effects of household indebtedness, income inequality, and asset dynamics on household consumption across 11 developed OECD countries from 1995 to 2021. The methodology includes a fixed effects model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and a panel VAR (PVAR) model with a GMM estimator. This research is the first to integrate household consumption, indebtedness, income inequality, and household assets into a single model to estimate these effects on consumption. It also investigates how income inequality impacts indebtedness. Contrary to previous findings, the analysis reveals that increases in household debt and income inequality do not necessarily reduce consumption. The expected positive impact of financial and net assets on consumption was not proven. While non-financial assets (e.g., housing) boost consumption in the short run via collateral effects, this influence turns negative over longer horizons. Moreover, the anticipated positive relationship between income inequality and household indebtedness was not confirmed.

本研究考察了1995年至2021年11个经合组织发达国家的家庭负债、收入不平等和资产动态对家庭消费的影响。该方法包括一个带有Driscoll-Kraay标准误差的固定效应模型和一个带有GMM估计量的面板VAR （PVAR）模型。这项研究首次将家庭消费、负债、收入不平等和家庭资产整合到一个模型中，以估计这些因素对消费的影响。它还研究了收入不平等如何影响负债。与之前的研究结果相反，分析显示，家庭债务和收入不平等的增加并不一定会减少消费。预期的金融资产和净资产对消费的积极影响并未得到证实。虽然非金融资产（如住房）通过附带效应在短期内促进消费，但从长期来看，这种影响将转为负面。此外，收入不平等与家庭负债之间预期的正相关关系没有得到证实。

引用次数: 0

Economic complexity and local employment multipliers 经济复杂性和当地就业乘数

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.005

Arthur Ribeiro Queiroz , Elton Eduardo Freitas , João Prates Romero

The objective of this paper is to assess the heterogeneity of employment multipliers between regions and sectors of distinct complexity levels, segmenting regions into four complexity levels and the economy into two sectors: complex and non-complex. Formal labor market data from 558 Brazilian micro-regions in three time points (2009, 2014 and 2019) were used in the investigation. Potential endogeneity was addressed by employing shift-share instrumental variables.. In less complex regions, the complex sector exhibits statistically weaker effects on both the non-complex sector and on itself, while the strongest positive impacts on employment arise from the non-complex sector’s self-multiplication, ranging from 0.92 to 1.8. In more complex regions, the complex sector presents the highest employment multiplier, generating between 1.06 and 1.43 jobs within itself and between 1.71 and 3.25 jobs in the non-complex sector.

本文的目的是评估不同复杂程度的地区和部门之间就业乘数的异质性，将区域划分为四个复杂水平，将经济划分为两个部门：复杂和非复杂。调查使用了2009年、2014年和2019年三个时间点巴西558个微型地区的正式劳动力市场数据。潜在的内生性是采用偏移份额工具变量解决。在不太复杂的地区，复杂部门对非复杂部门和自身的影响在统计上都较弱，而对就业的最积极影响来自非复杂部门的自我倍增，范围从0.92到1.8。在较复杂的地区，复杂部门的就业乘数最高，在其内部产生1.06至1.43个工作岗位，在非复杂部门产生1.71至3.25个工作岗位。

引用次数: 0

Agglomeration externalities of high-growth firms: the case of the manufacturing sector in China 高增长企业的集聚外部性：以中国制造业为例

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.004

Jing Yang , Danning Lu , Jianxun Shi

The contribution of high-growth firms to economic growth is gradually expanding, but its actual and subsequent effects on economy need to be further explored. This paper provides evidence for the study of the agglomeration externalities involving high-growth firms by analyzing their influence on non-high-growth firms’ productivity growth and input allocation within the same industry and region, as well as their spillover effects via both backward and forward linkages. The analysis shows robust proof of positive spillovers of high-growth firms on the labor productivity and inputs allocation of non-high-growth firms within the identical region and industry using manufacturing firm-level data on China between 2003 and 2013. The detailed mechanisms of agglomeration externalities associated with high-growth firms are further analyzed through three important channels, mainly including labor pooling, input sharing and knowledge spillover effects by the high-growth externalities.

高增长企业对经济增长的贡献正在逐步扩大，但其对经济的实际和后续效应有待进一步探讨。本文通过分析高增长企业的集聚外部性对同一产业和区域内非高增长企业生产率增长和投入配置的影响，以及它们通过后向和前向联系的溢出效应，为高增长企业的集聚外部性研究提供了证据。本文利用2003 - 2013年中国制造业企业层面的数据，有力地证明了高增长企业对同一地区和同一行业内非高增长企业的劳动生产率和投入配置存在正溢出效应。通过高增长外部性的劳动力汇集、投入共享和知识溢出效应三个重要渠道，进一步分析了高增长企业集聚外部性的具体机制。

引用次数: 0

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