Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Energy transition and structural change: A calibrated Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output model 能源转型和结构变化：一个校准的库存流动一致的投入产出模型

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.014

Mattia Pettena , Marco Raberto

The energy transition involves structural changes in the economy. Green utilities increase their investments, while brown utilities and fossil fuel producers shrink. These developments affect supply chains in expansionary and contractionary ways, respectively, and generate multiplier and accelerator effects.

We develop a Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output macroeconomic model of the world economy to analyze these dynamics. It includes a production network comprising 27 industries, differentiating between key mining, manufacturing, service, and both green and brown electricity sectors. It is the first model of its kind to have each industry invest in distinct capital goods based on sector- and asset-specific requirements. All parameters related to production technologies capture real relationships and are derived from real-world data.

We have simulated three energy transition pathways envisioned by the International Energy Agency (IEA) by empirically implementing two parallel processes: (i) the increasing share of electricity generated by green utilities and (ii) the electrification of production techniques and household consumption.

The resulting dynamics yield several key insights. The net effect of the above-mentioned expansionary and contractionary forces is to boost GDP growth and entails a high investment share. The relative importance of industries supplying machinery and metals increases. Technological changes stemming from the transition yield mildly deflationary effects. Nevertheless, inflation increases because of rising wage rates. Electricity is the only product whose price decreases with the transition. The only scenario capable of achieving a decline in emissions is the one entailing the strongest transition effort. Finally, electricity production is much higher than projections by the IEA.

能源转型涉及经济的结构性变化。绿色公用事业增加了投资，而棕色公用事业和化石燃料生产商减少了投资。这些发展分别以扩张和收缩的方式影响供应链，并产生乘数效应和加速效应。我们建立了世界经济的库存-流量-一致投入-产出宏观经济模型来分析这些动态。它包括一个由27个行业组成的生产网络，区分了关键的采矿、制造业、服务业以及绿色和棕色电力部门。这是同类模型中第一个让每个行业根据特定行业和资产的要求投资于不同的资本品的模型。与生产技术相关的所有参数都捕获了真实的关系，并从现实世界的数据中推导出来。我们通过经验实施两个平行的过程，模拟了国际能源署（IEA）设想的三种能源转型途径：(i)绿色公用事业产生的电力份额不断增加，（ii）生产技术和家庭消费的电气化。由此产生的动态产生了几个关键的见解。上述扩张性和收缩性力量的净效应是促进GDP增长，并需要较高的投资份额。供应机械和金属的工业的相对重要性增加了。转型带来的技术变革产生了温和的通缩效应。然而，由于工资率的上升，通货膨胀率也在上升。电力是唯一价格随着转型而下降的产品。能够实现排放量下降的唯一方案是需要最强有力的过渡努力的方案。最后，发电量远高于国际能源署的预测。

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引用次数: 0

Data assets, supply chain spillovers, and corporate ESG development — Evidence from Chinese listed companies 数据资产、供应链溢出与企业ESG发展——来自中国上市公司的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.017

Ruibing Ji , Shengling Zhang , Wenxuan Cao , Yu Hao , Nuo Wang

Driven by the Sustainable Development Goals, corporate ESG performance has increasingly become a key indicator of high-quality development and corporate accountability. As an emerging production factor, data assets (DA) are reshaping firms’ resource allocation and governance models. Understanding how data assets affect ESG helps integrate digital transformation and sustainable development strategies. Motivated by both the current theoretical gap and the practical demands of digital governance, this study employs panel data on Chinese listed companies spanning 2009–2023 to examine the complex influence of DA on ESG. Results show that data assets enhance ESG over the long term, although a temporary early-stage dampening effect is observed. Mechanism analyses indicate that data assets indirectly influence ESG through three main channels: capability improvement, resource empowerment, and governance optimization. The moderating effects indicate that this influence is stronger when supported by robust physical infrastructure and a conducive institutional environment. Further analysis identifies a forward spillover effect, in which data assets significantly improve ESG performance in downstream firms through supply-chain linkages. This spillover is more pronounced in companies with proprietary data assets, high interdependence, and similar ownership structures. This study addresses a gap in the existing literature by incorporating both the nonlinear dynamics and spillover characteristics of DA. It reveals how digital resource allocation, through structural transformation, fosters sustainable transitions within firms and across supply chains, offering a practical foundation for managers and policymakers to promote synergy between data governance and green development.

在可持续发展目标的推动下，企业ESG绩效日益成为高质量发展和企业问责的关键指标。数据资产作为一种新兴的生产要素，正在重塑企业的资源配置和治理模式。了解数据资产如何影响ESG有助于整合数字化转型和可持续发展战略。基于当前理论空白和数字化治理的实践需求，本研究采用2009-2023年中国上市公司的面板数据，考察数据管理对ESG的复杂影响。结果表明，数据资产在长期内增强了ESG，尽管在早期观察到暂时的抑制效应。机制分析表明，数据资产通过能力提升、资源赋能和治理优化三个主要渠道间接影响ESG。调节效应表明，在坚实的物质基础设施和有利的制度环境的支持下，这种影响会更强。进一步分析发现了一种正向溢出效应，其中数据资产通过供应链联系显著改善下游企业的ESG绩效。这种溢出效应在拥有专有数据资产、高度相互依赖和类似所有权结构的公司中更为明显。本研究通过结合数据分析的非线性动力学和溢出特性，填补了现有文献的空白。它揭示了数字资源配置如何通过结构转型促进企业内部和供应链之间的可持续转型，为管理者和政策制定者促进数据治理与绿色发展之间的协同作用提供了实践基础。

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引用次数: 0

“Increasing returns through circularity: a theory of production residuals for sustainable circular transitions” 通过循环增加收益：可持续循环转型的生产剩余理论

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.018

Giovanni Tagliani

The concepts of environmental sustainability and economic development, the former founded on the assumption of a planet with finite resources while the latter privileges growth driven by increasing returns, find their most difficult junction in the current era of climate change. Starting from the sustainable transition literature and structural dynamics models, this paper outlines a theory of production residuals showing how residuals are generated, their typology, and how to innovatively use them. The paper analyses the economic implications of residuals in the context of 'one way' and circular representations of production and contributes to the study of sustainable circular transitions.

环境可持续性和经济发展的概念，前者建立在地球资源有限的假设基础上，而后者则是在收益增加的驱动下实现增长的特权，这两个概念在当前气候变化的时代找到了最困难的结合点。本文从可持续转型文献和结构动力学模型出发，概述了生产剩余的理论，展示了剩余如何产生，它们的类型以及如何创新地使用它们。本文分析了“单向”和生产循环表示背景下剩余的经济含义，并有助于可持续循环过渡的研究。

引用次数: 0

Is agricultural productivity a prerequisite for structural transformation? Evidence on the role of trade openness 农业生产力是结构转型的先决条件吗？关于贸易开放作用的证据

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016

Arnaud Daymard

A high agricultural productivity is usually seen as a precondition for the development of industry and services, but this idea relies crucially on the assumption of an economy closed to international trade. In a globalized world, can a country industrialize or tertiarize without prior agricultural development? There is still little practical knowledge of this possibility. In this paper, I assess the relevance of closed- versus open-economy models of structural transformation using data on the sectoral productivity levels of developed and developing countries over the 1950–2018 period. The empirical findings suggest that most countries behave approximately as closed economies. Therefore, except for small city-state countries, the emphasis on agricultural development to achieve industrialization and tertiarization is justified. Nonetheless, the results reveal that in Latin America and Africa, a high agricultural productivity causes tertiarization with little development of the industrial sector. This “premature deindustrialization” hints at the influence of specific barriers to the creation of industrial jobs: an adverse business environment for large manufacturing firms and a downward trend in the world prices of manufacturing goods.

高农业生产率通常被视为工业和服务业发展的先决条件，但这一观点主要依赖于一个不依赖国际贸易的经济体的假设。在一个全球化的世界里，一个国家能在没有农业发展的前提下实现工业化或三农化吗？关于这种可能性的实际知识仍然很少。在本文中，我使用1950-2018年期间发达国家和发展中国家部门生产率水平的数据，评估了结构转型的封闭经济模型与开放经济模型的相关性。实证研究结果表明，大多数国家的行为近似于封闭经济体。因此，除了小型城邦国家外，强调农业发展以实现工业化和第三化是合理的。然而，研究结果表明，在拉丁美洲和非洲，高农业生产率导致了三化，而工业部门的发展很少。这种“过早去工业化”暗示了对创造工业就业的具体障碍的影响：大型制造企业的不利商业环境和世界制造业产品价格的下降趋势。

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引用次数: 0

Exporting violence? Migration and violent conflict in Africa 出口暴力吗?非洲的移民和暴力冲突

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.013

Nixon S. Chekenya , Canicio Dzingirai

Climate change and demographic pressures are reshaping Africa’s security landscape. Extreme weather shocks disrupt livelihoods and often induce people to move, while many states face persistent violent conflict. Migration represents a potential connection between these two challenges, yet isolating its causal effect on conflict remains difficult due to endogeneity and measurement concerns. In this paper, we examine whether net international migration increases the incidence of violent conflict in Africa and assess if there are heterogenous effects across regions within Africa. We compile panel data for 54 African countries from 1997 to 2024, measuring net migration as the difference between inflows and outflows, and conflict incidence using geocoded event data. To address endogeneity, we instrument migration with historical rainfall variability (from 1901 to 1950), which shaped long-run settlement and mobility patterns but predates modern political institutions. Using a control function IV Poisson model suitable for equi-dispersed count data, we find that migration significantly increases conflict incidence, with effects concentrated in countries and regions in Africa with weak governance and economic stress. These results highlight the need for anticipatory governance strategies which address both mobility and fragility in contexts vulnerable to climate change and demographic pressure.

气候变化和人口压力正在重塑非洲的安全格局。极端天气冲击破坏了人们的生计，往往促使人们迁移，而许多国家则面临持续的暴力冲突。移民代表了这两个挑战之间的潜在联系，但由于内生性和衡量方面的考虑，孤立其对冲突的因果影响仍然很困难。在本文中，我们研究了净国际移民是否增加了非洲暴力冲突的发生率，并评估了非洲各地区之间是否存在异质性影响。我们编制了54个非洲国家从1997年到2024年的面板数据，衡量净移民流入和流出之间的差异，以及使用地理编码事件数据的冲突发生率。为了解决内生性问题，我们用历史降雨变化（1901年至1950年）来衡量移民，这形成了长期的定居和流动模式，但早于现代政治制度。利用适合等分散计数数据的控制函数IV泊松模型，我们发现移民显著增加了冲突发生率，且影响集中在治理薄弱和经济压力大的非洲国家和地区。这些结果突出表明，在易受气候变化和人口压力影响的情况下，需要制定前瞻性治理战略，解决流动性和脆弱性问题。

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引用次数: 0

Climbing up global value chains: Is the regional trade agreement network stepping stones or stumbling blocks? 攀上全球价值链：区域贸易协定网络是垫脚石还是绊脚石？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.015

Yichen Yang , Yu Zhao , Wen Liu

Since the 1990s, the number and depth of regional trade agreements (RTAs) have grown rapidly, forming a network structure and playing an important role in global value chain (GVC) cooperation. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the effect of RTA network centrality on GVC positions. We use social network analysis to construct network centrality indicators from three dimensions—individual, local, and global—based on network characteristics, which capture countries’ advantageous positions, and use upstreamness to measure GVC positions. We find that RTA network centrality can enhance GVC positions. Such effects are more pronounced in “WTO-extra” provisions and lower-middle-income countries. Total factor productivity and human capital levels are essential mechanisms. Moreover, we confirm that the RTA network improves GVC positions by promoting regionalization rather than globalized international fragmentation. In the face of increasing international competition, we reveal that regional economic integration is beneficial for improving GVC welfare.

20世纪90年代以来，区域贸易协定数量和深度快速增长，形成了网络结构，在全球价值链合作中发挥了重要作用。本文从理论和实证两方面探讨了区域交通运输网络中心性对全球价值链区位的影响。基于网络特征，利用社会网络分析从个体、地方和全球三个维度构建网络中心性指标，捕捉各国的优势位置，并利用上游性衡量全球价值链位置。研究发现，RTA网络的中心性可以提升GVC的地位。这种影响在“wto额外”条款和中低收入国家更为明显。全要素生产率和人力资本水平是重要的机制。此外，我们确认区域贸易协定网络通过促进区域化而不是全球化的国际碎片化来提高全球价值链的地位。面对日益激烈的国际竞争，我们发现区域经济一体化有利于提高全球价值链的福利。

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引用次数: 0

Unraveling the interplay of substitution elasticities and the green energy rebound effect 替代弹性与绿色能源反弹效应的相互作用

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.007

Verónica Acurio Vásconez , Mónica Pereira Henriques

This paper examines how technological progress in either green or fossil energy affects the consumption of both energy types within a neoclassical growth model that explicitly separates energy inputs—unlike the original Saunders (1992) framework. By incorporating substitution elasticities between production factors, we investigate whether improvements in one sector genuinely displace fossil fuels or instead generate structural rebound effects that increase total energy use. Using alternative functional forms—Cobb–Douglas and nested CES—we show that when the elasticity of substitution exceeds one, technological progress in either green or fossil energy can amplify the use of one or even both energy types, potentially triggering backfire effects, whereas low substitution elasticities moderate this impact. These findings highlight that the environmental effectiveness of technological change depends critically on production structures and substitution possibilities, offering policy-relevant insights for managing systemic rebound mechanisms.

本文考察了绿色能源和化石能源的技术进步如何在新古典增长模型中影响这两种能源的消费，该模型明确地将能源投入分开——与最初的桑德斯（1992）框架不同。通过纳入生产要素之间的替代弹性，我们研究了一个部门的改进是否真正取代了化石燃料，还是反而产生了增加总能源使用的结构性反弹效应。利用可替代的功能形式——柯布-道格拉斯和嵌套ces——我们表明，当替代弹性超过1时，无论是绿色能源还是化石能源的技术进步都会扩大一种甚至两种能源的使用，从而可能引发适得其反的效应，而低替代弹性则会缓和这种影响。这些发现突出表明，技术变革的环境有效性主要取决于生产结构和替代可能性，为管理系统性反弹机制提供了与政策相关的见解。

引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence, global value chain position and manufacturing firm emissions 人工智能、全球价值链地位和制造企业排放

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.012

Yue Lu , Minghui Ma , Yaning Wei , Yue Zhang

Utilizing firm-level data from 2000 to 2012, sourced from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms, China’s Environmental Statistics Database, the International Federation of Robotics, and China Customs Trade Statistics, we estimate the effects and mechanisms of artificial intelligence (AI) on firms’ sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions. Our analysis reveals that AI significantly reduces firms’ SO₂ emissions, and this result remains robust to extensive checks and an instrumental variable approach addressing endogeneity. Furthermore, AI decreases firms’ SO₂ emissions through three channels: enhancing energy efficiency, optimizing supply chain management, and strengthening pollution abatement capacity. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis indicates a more pronounced reduction in SO₂ emissions for capital-intensive and emission-intensive industries, as well as for firms that are more productive, larger, older, and located in eastern regions. Finally, our analysis yields the valuable insight that firms located more upstream in the global value chain accrue more substantial environmental benefits from AI adoption, thereby helping to mitigate the global issue arising from environmental bias in trade policies. Overall, the study underscores AI’s potential to reduce firms’ SO₂ emissions and contributes to the literature on the environmental impacts of digital technology.

本文利用2000年至2012年工业企业年度调查、中国环境统计数据库、国际机器人联合会和中国海关贸易统计的企业层面数据，估计了人工智能（AI）对企业二氧化硫（SO2）排放的影响和机制。我们的分析表明，人工智能显著减少了企业的二氧化硫排放，这一结果对于广泛的检查和解决内生性的工具变量方法仍然是稳健的。此外，人工智能通过提高能源效率、优化供应链管理和加强污染减排能力三个渠道减少了企业的二氧化硫排放。此外，异质性分析表明，资本密集型和排放密集型行业，以及生产力更高、规模更大、历史更悠久、位于东部地区的企业，二氧化硫排放量的减少更为显著。最后，我们的分析得出了有价值的见解，即位于全球价值链上游的公司从采用人工智能中获得了更大的环境效益，从而有助于减轻贸易政策中环境偏见引起的全球问题。总体而言，该研究强调了人工智能减少企业二氧化硫排放的潜力，并为数字技术对环境影响的文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Closing the productivity–wage gap in the European Union: The role of the labor share 缩小欧盟的生产率与工资差距：劳动收入份额的作用

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.005

Alessandro Bellocchi , Francesco Saraceno , Giuseppe Travaglini

This paper examines the determinants of the productivity–wage gap in the European Union between 2002 and 2018, with a focus on the role of the labor share. Drawing on a nested CES production framework and industry-level data for 17 EU countries, we find that higher tangible capital intensity, particularly in non-ICT assets, together with capital-biased technological progress, have reduced the labor share of low- and medium-skilled workers. Institutional changes, including weaker collective bargaining coverage, the erosion of employment protection and the rising use of temporary contracts, have further accelerated this decline. Our results reveal marked heterogeneity across asset types, industries and skill groups, highlighting the need for targeted policies to mitigate the distributional consequences of capital deepening and technological change.

本文研究了2002年至2018年欧盟生产率与工资差距的决定因素，重点研究了劳动收入占比的作用。利用嵌套的CES生产框架和17个欧盟国家的行业层面数据，我们发现更高的有形资本密集度，特别是在非ict资产中，加上资本偏向的技术进步，降低了中低技能工人的劳动份额。制度变化，包括集体谈判覆盖面的减弱、就业保护的削弱以及临时合同使用的增加，进一步加速了这种下降。我们的研究结果揭示了资产类型、行业和技能群体之间的显著异质性，强调需要有针对性的政策来减轻资本深化和技术变革的分配后果。

引用次数: 0

Cross-border data flows and AI adoption: Agent-based model simulations 跨境数据流和人工智能采用：基于代理的模型仿真

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.009

Franziska Klügl , Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås

This paper develops a dynamic Agent Based Model to study the role of cross-border data flows for the joint uptake of artificial intelligence enabled software in manufacturing and engineering. The model features two technology-related business models: engineering as a face-to-face consultancy service, and engineering as a software licensing service. Engineering agents harvest data from their software clients in the home country and abroad and use the data for quality assurance and software updates. We compare scenarios along two dimensions: (i) harvesting data from own clients only versus from open data repositories, (ii) the strength of competition measured by the probability that a contract will be extended by another period. We find that restrictions on cross-border data flows slow down the speed of adoption considerably, particularly in small countries. The simulations generate an S-shaped technology uptake path for manufacturers and a U-shaped relationship between competition and technology uptake in engineering. Interestingly, cross-border data flows flatten the U.

本文开发了一个动态的基于Agent的模型来研究跨界数据流在制造和工程中联合采用人工智能软件中的作用。该模式以两种与技术相关的商业模式为特色：作为面对面咨询服务的工程，以及作为软件许可服务的工程。工程代理从国内外的软件客户那里收集数据，并将这些数据用于质量保证和软件更新。我们从两个方面比较了各种情况：(i)只从自己的客户那里收集数据，而不是从开放的数据存储库中收集数据；（ii）通过合同将被延长一段时间的可能性来衡量的竞争强度。我们发现，对跨境数据流动的限制大大减缓了采用的速度，特别是在小国。仿真结果表明，制造业的技术吸收路径为s型，竞争与工程技术吸收之间呈u型关系。有趣的是，跨境数据流使美国经济趋于平缓。

引用次数: 0

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