Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

We explore the impact of dynamic characteristics of greenhouse-gas emitting systems, such as inertia, induced innovation, and path-dependency, on optimal responses to climate change. Our compact and analytically tractable model, applied with stylized damage assumptions to derive optimal pathways, highlights how simple dynamic parameters affect responses including the optimal current effort and the cost of delay. The conventional cost-benefit result (i.e., an optimal policy with rising marginal costs that reflects discounted climate damages) arises only as a special case in which the dynamic characteristics of emitting systems are assumed to be insignificant. Our analysis highlights and distinguishes from the (often implicit) assumption in many cost-benefit models, which neglect inertia and assume exogenous technology progress. This tends to defer action. More generally, our model yields useful policy insights for the transition to deep decarbonization, showing that enhanced early action may greatly reduce both damages and abatement costs in the long run.

Existing literature suggests that uncertainty shocks can propagate like aggregate demand shocks or aggregate supply shocks. By way of extension, this study investigates the effect of energy-related uncertainty shocks on U.S. inflation while incorporating the effect of industrial production and interest rate uncertainty shocks. Using a multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression for the period 2000:M6 to 2019:M7, the findings reveal that energy-related uncertainty shocks amplify inflation by manifesting as cost-push shocks with a stronger connection emerging in quantiles slightly above the median quantile distribution of energy-related uncertainty. Although industrial production positively drives inflation, its effect is observed less around median quantiles of inflation than in the lower and upper quantiles. Furthermore, the effect of interest rate uncertainty is negative and stronger in quantiles around the median of inflation, suggesting that interest rate uncertainty behaves like aggregate demand shocks. Based on these findings, policy implications are offered.

This paper takes issue with what I describe as a single focus on either innovation or market power as potential determinants of employment or labour share. Drawing on a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function and EU- KLEMS data on OECD industries, I demonstrate that the unifocal approach is not justified theoretically or empirically. I report that: (i) employment and labour share depends on both innovation and market power; (ii) market power's direct effects on both outcomes are always negative and large; (iii) innovation's direct effects are small and depend on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour; and (iv) innovation and market power have substitute interactive effects that exacerbate the fall in employment or labour share. I conclude that the main driver of the decline in labour share and/or employment is not technological innovation as such but the level of rents that innovating firms are able to extract.

The oil-rich GCC economies are increasingly adopting job nationalization policies to create employment for natives. The higher wage rate of natives compared to migrants makes this challenging for private sector firms. This paper analyzes productivity differences between migrants and nationals using detailed industry-level data from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Employing an extended Cobb-Douglas production function, we find that migrant workers have a productivity advantage over nationals. Combined with their lower wages, this results in a lower unit labor cost, making it challenging for private enterprises to shift away from relying on expatriate workers. Long-term, GCC economies need to invest in upskilling natives and fostering a competitive labor market to create productive jobs for natives.

Based on China's long-term implementation of gender equality, the rapid development of the digital economy has provided new opportunities for improving female autonomy and releasing the “gender dividend”. This study explores the impact of the digital economy on female autonomy, using digital economy index we constructed and the 2014-2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data. We find that the development of the digital economy can significantly improve female autonomy, both economically and spiritually. Meanwhile, the digital economy can also alleviate the “marriage penalty” and “motherhood penalty”. Furthermore, we find that digital economy's career guarantee effect and capital consolidation effect are important mechanisms, which can promote women's participation in employment, as well as enable them to have higher human capital and social capital.

Green technology innovation is an important means to achieve sustainable development. The study is an exploration of the bilateral perspective on the relationship between different types of environmental regulations and green innovation. Based on the data set of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2018, the two-sided effects of command-and-control environmental regulation and market-based environmental regulation on green innovation are analysed and the net effects are calculated by using the two-tier stochastic frontier models. First, empirical research shows that the effects of command-and-control environmental regulation and market-based environmental regulation on green innovation are both highlighted by negative characteristics. Command-and-control environmental regulation has a smaller effect on green innovation, with an average positive effect of 0.00005, which is smaller than the average negative effect of 0.0008. Meanwhile, the positive effect of market-based environmental regulation on green innovation is 0.00291, smaller than the negative effect of 0.00461. Second, the negative impact of command-and-control environmental regulation on green innovation underwent a "back-to-N" change process in 2006–2018, while the negative effect of market-based environmental regulation on green innovation did not decline until after 2011. Third, the provinces where command-and-control environmental regulation policies have a greater negative effect are concentrated in the energy-intensive regions of central and western China, while the provinces where market-based environmental regulation policies can promote green innovation are from the energy-intensive or developed eastern regions of China. Based on the research conclusions, to better promote green innovation, there is a need to implement environmental regulatory policies that address regional differences and to establish a national system of green innovation markets.

Scientific and technological innovation (STI) activities are facilitated under the influence of the digital economy and depend on digital elements to support innovation activities. This study measures digital element inputs and outputs using data related to the digital economy and estimates STI efficiency in 29 provincial regions in mainland China from 2010 to 2021 employing the global super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model. Then, spatial characteristics and driving forces of STI efficiency are quantified using spatial autocorrelation and geographic detectors. The results reveal that STI efficiency exhibits a fluctuating, W-shaped pattern, and the spatial correlation effect shows a gradually declining trend from 2010 to 2021. The findings reveal that the core drivers of STI efficiency are digital financial development, e-commerce development, digital access level, and related factors. Therefore, strengthening inter-regional innovation links, promoting the construction of 5 G mobile internet and accelerating the integration of digital industries into traditional industries are recommended.

This study investigates the relationship between within-country diversity, financial development, and economic output with a particular focus on the moderating role of financial development. Analyzing data from a diverse set of countries, we find that both religious and language diversity exhibit negative associations with economic performance. However, in emerging economies, a positive interaction between linguistic and religious diversity emerges. Notably, robust financial development positively moderates the relationship between diversity and economic output, with identified thresholds indicating a critical level necessary to mitigate the adverse consequences of cultural diversity. Our findings highlight the essential role of financial systems in fostering trust and promoting economic growth, particularly in high-diversity contexts. Our findings are robust to a battery of alternative tests. By emphasizing the importance of financial development in navigating within-country heterogeneities, this study offers valuable insights for policymakers seeking to foster inclusive and sustainable development strategies.

The thriving development of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and their growing engagement in global markets have exerted significant environmental transformations. This study assesses the environmental effects of China's exports from small, medium, and large enterprises by constructing novel input-output tables that distinguish firm size heterogeneity for 2007, 2012, and 2017. We find that SMEs are responsible for over 60 % of the CO₂ emissions embodied in China's industrial exports. Notably, the emission intensities for exports (EIEs) by large enterprises are on average 8.4 % and 20.8 % lower than those by medium and small enterprises, respectively. The results of structural decomposition analysis highlight several major determinants including a cleaner export structure and a higher proportion of imported intermediate inputs. Our study provides a novel input-output framework applicable to analyzing SME-related issues for more countries and underscores some strategies to enhance the cleaner export performance of SMEs.

We develop a structural method to estimate the rate of capacity utilization in 12 EU countries that consists of identifying the structural parameters of a Leontief production function, using a parsimonious theoretical specification. Parameters are correctly identified, stable and robust to alternative specifications. Our results provide evidence of persistent excess capacity and hysteresis in the rate of capacity utilization in many EU countries, especially after the 2008′s global financial crisis, thereby supporting the claim that larger fiscal deficits would have contributed to absorb excess capacity without producing persistent inflationary pressures or debt unsustainability. Despite the simplicity of our model, the method allows more complex macroeconomic specifications for country-specific applications.