Pub Date : 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.005
Arthur Ribeiro Queiroz , Elton Eduardo Freitas , João Prates Romero
The objective of this paper is to assess the heterogeneity of employment multipliers between regions and sectors of distinct complexity levels, segmenting regions into four complexity levels and the economy into two sectors: complex and non-complex. Formal labor market data from 558 Brazilian micro-regions in three time points (2009, 2014 and 2019) were used in the investigation. Potential endogeneity was addressed by employing shift-share instrumental variables.. In less complex regions, the complex sector exhibits statistically weaker effects on both the non-complex sector and on itself, while the strongest positive impacts on employment arise from the non-complex sector’s self-multiplication, ranging from 0.92 to 1.8. In more complex regions, the complex sector presents the highest employment multiplier, generating between 1.06 and 1.43 jobs within itself and between 1.71 and 3.25 jobs in the non-complex sector.
{"title":"Economic complexity and local employment multipliers","authors":"Arthur Ribeiro Queiroz , Elton Eduardo Freitas , João Prates Romero","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The objective of this paper is to assess the heterogeneity of employment multipliers between regions and sectors of distinct complexity levels, segmenting regions into four complexity levels and the economy into two sectors: complex and non-complex. Formal labor market data from 558 Brazilian micro-regions in three time points (2009, 2014 and 2019) were used in the investigation. Potential endogeneity was addressed by employing shift-share instrumental variables.. In less complex regions, the complex sector exhibits statistically weaker effects on both the non-complex sector and on itself, while the strongest positive impacts on employment arise from the non-complex sector’s self-multiplication, ranging from 0.92 to 1.8. In more complex regions, the complex sector presents the highest employment multiplier, generating between 1.06 and 1.43 jobs within itself and between 1.71 and 3.25 jobs in the non-complex sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Pages 20-43"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145625374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-18DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.004
Jing Yang , Danning Lu , Jianxun Shi
The contribution of high-growth firms to economic growth is gradually expanding, but its actual and subsequent effects on economy need to be further explored. This paper provides evidence for the study of the agglomeration externalities involving high-growth firms by analyzing their influence on non-high-growth firms’ productivity growth and input allocation within the same industry and region, as well as their spillover effects via both backward and forward linkages. The analysis shows robust proof of positive spillovers of high-growth firms on the labor productivity and inputs allocation of non-high-growth firms within the identical region and industry using manufacturing firm-level data on China between 2003 and 2013. The detailed mechanisms of agglomeration externalities associated with high-growth firms are further analyzed through three important channels, mainly including labor pooling, input sharing and knowledge spillover effects by the high-growth externalities.
{"title":"Agglomeration externalities of high-growth firms: the case of the manufacturing sector in China","authors":"Jing Yang , Danning Lu , Jianxun Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The contribution of high-growth firms to economic growth is gradually expanding, but its actual and subsequent effects on economy need to be further explored. This paper provides evidence for the study of the agglomeration externalities involving high-growth firms by analyzing their influence on non-high-growth firms’ productivity growth and input allocation within the same industry and region, as well as their spillover effects via both backward and forward linkages. The analysis shows robust proof of positive spillovers of high-growth firms on the labor productivity and inputs allocation of non-high-growth firms within the identical region and industry using manufacturing firm-level data on China between 2003 and 2013. The detailed mechanisms of agglomeration externalities associated with high-growth firms are further analyzed through three important channels, mainly including labor pooling, input sharing and knowledge spillover effects by the high-growth externalities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Pages 1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145584453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-08DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.001
Samantha Coccia , Mauro Gallegati , Alberto Russo
This paper examines the impact of macro prudential policies on financial stability and inequality, focusing on the effects of debt service-to-income (DTI) ratio reductions and on its coordination with a conventional monetary policy. Using a macroeconomic simulation model, we find that reducing DTI threshold bring about a decrease in both households indebtedness and non-performing loans (NPLs), while causing economic contraction, and worsening inequality by restricting access to credit for lower-income households. Our findings suggest that while macro prudential policy (lower DTI) alone is able to grant more financial stability at the cost of greater inequality, a combination with expansionary monetary policies can reduce these disparities while ensuring financial stability.
{"title":"Macroprudential and monetary policies to deal with inequality","authors":"Samantha Coccia , Mauro Gallegati , Alberto Russo","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of macro prudential policies on financial stability and inequality, focusing on the effects of debt service-to-income (DTI) ratio reductions and on its coordination with a conventional monetary policy. Using a macroeconomic simulation model, we find that reducing DTI threshold bring about a decrease in both households indebtedness and non-performing loans (NPLs), while causing economic contraction, and worsening inequality by restricting access to credit for lower-income households. Our findings suggest that while macro prudential policy (lower DTI) alone is able to grant more financial stability at the cost of greater inequality, a combination with expansionary monetary policies can reduce these disparities while ensuring financial stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 895-912"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-06DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.003
Wenling Liu, Ziqing Ma, Shuwen Xiao, Yuedong Xiao
During the COVID-19 pandemic, external shocks like social distancing, supply chain disruptions, and economic uncertainty reshaped consumption patterns, accelerating the shift from offline dependence toward digital, contactless, and precautionary savings-oriented habits. However, it remains unclear whether these changes represent temporary adaptations or persistent structural transformations. Using panel data on urban and rural household consumption across 115 prefecture-level cities from 2016 to 2022, supplemented by transaction records from the Taobao platform, this study employs difference-in-differences (DID) and regression discontinuity design (RDD) methodologies to identify the causal impact of the pandemic. By controlling for per capita disposable income, levels of digital economic development, and other confounding factors, we isolate the net effect of COVID-19 and evaluate both its short- and long-term influences. The analysis shows the pandemic reduced consumption across urban and rural residents, with gradual recovery. Urban areas experienced larger declines than rural regions, demonstrating a dichotomy between “structural contraction in cities versus adaptive recovery in rural areas”. Structurally, the pandemic induced a dual short-term phenomenon: consumption downgrading (a shift toward essential goods under survival pressure, reflected in a rising Engel coefficient) coexisted with consumption upgrading (a shift toward higher-quality, green products, and digital services driven by health and ecological awareness), while the long-term trajectory pointed toward upgrading. Offline consumption gave way to online platforms, with digital spending normalizing from emergency shifts. These findings reveal the shift from reactive reaction to habit formation, informing retail channel optimization, unlocking rural demand, and advancing green–digital integration to support high-quality post-pandemic economic recovery efforts.
{"title":"Habit formation under stress: How COVID-19 reshaped Chinese consumer behavior — short-term disruptions and long-term behavioral entrenchment","authors":"Wenling Liu, Ziqing Ma, Shuwen Xiao, Yuedong Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the COVID-19 pandemic, external shocks like social distancing, supply chain disruptions, and economic uncertainty reshaped consumption patterns, accelerating the shift from offline dependence toward digital, contactless, and precautionary savings-oriented habits. However, it remains unclear whether these changes represent temporary adaptations or persistent structural transformations. Using panel data on urban and rural household consumption across 115 prefecture-level cities from 2016 to 2022, supplemented by transaction records from the Taobao platform, this study employs difference-in-differences (DID) and regression discontinuity design (RDD) methodologies to identify the causal impact of the pandemic. By controlling for per capita disposable income, levels of digital economic development, and other confounding factors, we isolate the net effect of COVID-19 and evaluate both its short- and long-term influences. The analysis shows the pandemic reduced consumption across urban and rural residents, with gradual recovery. Urban areas experienced larger declines than rural regions, demonstrating a dichotomy between “structural contraction in cities versus adaptive recovery in rural areas”. Structurally, the pandemic induced a dual short-term phenomenon: consumption downgrading <em>(a shift toward essential goods under survival pressure, reflected in a rising Engel coefficient)</em> coexisted with consumption upgrading <em>(a shift toward higher-quality, green products, and digital services driven by health and ecological awareness)</em>, while the long-term trajectory pointed toward upgrading. Offline consumption gave way to online platforms, with digital spending normalizing from emergency shifts. These findings reveal the shift from reactive reaction to habit formation, informing retail channel optimization, unlocking rural demand, and advancing green–digital integration to support high-quality post-pandemic economic recovery efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 926-936"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.002
Dimitris Paitaridis , Christos Pierros
In this paper, we examine the elasticities of the cost factors that drive prices in Greece. Based on Eichner, we apply an extended cost-plus pricing approach in a multi-sector panel model. Specifically, we integrate technological, fiscal and monetary factors in the standard Kaleckian price formula. Our results are able to explain the drivers of the current phase of inflation but also to highlight the impact of the re-structuring of the Greek economy that took place during the past decade on price formation. For instance, the pass through from intermediate input to output prices has increased significantly, since 2009. Additionally, the econometric model performs better when the sample is divided in Industry and Services. However, when firms engage in a deleveraging process the explanatory power of the cost-plus pricing framework is constrained.
{"title":"A synthetic investigation at the root causes of inflation in Greece","authors":"Dimitris Paitaridis , Christos Pierros","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we examine the elasticities of the cost factors that drive prices in Greece. Based on Eichner, we apply an extended cost-plus pricing approach in a multi-sector panel model. Specifically, we integrate technological, fiscal and monetary factors in the standard Kaleckian price formula. Our results are able to explain the drivers of the current phase of inflation but also to highlight the impact of the re-structuring of the Greek economy that took place during the past decade on price formation. For instance, the pass through from intermediate input to output prices has increased significantly, since 2009. Additionally, the econometric model performs better when the sample is divided in Industry and Services. However, when firms engage in a deleveraging process the explanatory power of the cost-plus pricing framework is constrained.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 937-948"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.014
Mattia Pettena , Marco Raberto
The energy transition involves structural changes in the economy. Green utilities increase their investments, while brown utilities and fossil fuel producers shrink. These developments affect supply chains in expansionary and contractionary ways, respectively, and generate multiplier and accelerator effects.
We develop a Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output macroeconomic model of the world economy to analyze these dynamics. It includes a production network comprising 27 industries, differentiating between key mining, manufacturing, service, and both green and brown electricity sectors. It is the first model of its kind to have each industry invest in distinct capital goods based on sector- and asset-specific requirements. All parameters related to production technologies capture real relationships and are derived from real-world data.
We have simulated three energy transition pathways envisioned by the International Energy Agency (IEA) by empirically implementing two parallel processes: (i) the increasing share of electricity generated by green utilities and (ii) the electrification of production techniques and household consumption.
The resulting dynamics yield several key insights. The net effect of the above-mentioned expansionary and contractionary forces is to boost GDP growth and entails a high investment share. The relative importance of industries supplying machinery and metals increases. Technological changes stemming from the transition yield mildly deflationary effects. Nevertheless, inflation increases because of rising wage rates. Electricity is the only product whose price decreases with the transition. The only scenario capable of achieving a decline in emissions is the one entailing the strongest transition effort. Finally, electricity production is much higher than projections by the IEA.
{"title":"Energy transition and structural change: A calibrated Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output model","authors":"Mattia Pettena , Marco Raberto","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The energy transition involves structural changes in the economy. Green utilities increase their investments, while brown utilities and fossil fuel producers shrink. These developments affect supply chains in expansionary and contractionary ways, respectively, and generate multiplier and accelerator effects.</div><div>We develop a Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output macroeconomic model of the world economy to analyze these dynamics. It includes a production network comprising 27 industries, differentiating between key mining, manufacturing, service, and both green and brown electricity sectors. It is the first model of its kind to have each industry invest in distinct capital goods based on sector- and asset-specific requirements. All parameters related to production technologies capture real relationships and are derived from real-world data.</div><div>We have simulated three energy transition pathways envisioned by the International Energy Agency (IEA) by empirically implementing two parallel processes: (i) the increasing share of electricity generated by green utilities and (ii) the electrification of production techniques and household consumption.</div><div>The resulting dynamics yield several key insights. The net effect of the above-mentioned expansionary and contractionary forces is to boost GDP growth and entails a high investment share. The relative importance of industries supplying machinery and metals increases. Technological changes stemming from the transition yield mildly deflationary effects. Nevertheless, inflation increases because of rising wage rates. Electricity is the only product whose price decreases with the transition. The only scenario capable of achieving a decline in emissions is the one entailing the strongest transition effort. Finally, electricity production is much higher than projections by the IEA.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 949-995"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.017
Ruibing Ji , Shengling Zhang , Wenxuan Cao , Yu Hao , Nuo Wang
Driven by the Sustainable Development Goals, corporate ESG performance has increasingly become a key indicator of high-quality development and corporate accountability. As an emerging production factor, data assets (DA) are reshaping firms’ resource allocation and governance models. Understanding how data assets affect ESG helps integrate digital transformation and sustainable development strategies. Motivated by both the current theoretical gap and the practical demands of digital governance, this study employs panel data on Chinese listed companies spanning 2009–2023 to examine the complex influence of DA on ESG. Results show that data assets enhance ESG over the long term, although a temporary early-stage dampening effect is observed. Mechanism analyses indicate that data assets indirectly influence ESG through three main channels: capability improvement, resource empowerment, and governance optimization. The moderating effects indicate that this influence is stronger when supported by robust physical infrastructure and a conducive institutional environment. Further analysis identifies a forward spillover effect, in which data assets significantly improve ESG performance in downstream firms through supply-chain linkages. This spillover is more pronounced in companies with proprietary data assets, high interdependence, and similar ownership structures. This study addresses a gap in the existing literature by incorporating both the nonlinear dynamics and spillover characteristics of DA. It reveals how digital resource allocation, through structural transformation, fosters sustainable transitions within firms and across supply chains, offering a practical foundation for managers and policymakers to promote synergy between data governance and green development.
{"title":"Data assets, supply chain spillovers, and corporate ESG development — Evidence from Chinese listed companies","authors":"Ruibing Ji , Shengling Zhang , Wenxuan Cao , Yu Hao , Nuo Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Driven by the Sustainable Development Goals, corporate ESG performance has increasingly become a key indicator of high-quality development and corporate accountability. As an emerging production factor, data assets (DA) are reshaping firms’ resource allocation and governance models. Understanding how data assets affect ESG helps integrate digital transformation and sustainable development strategies. Motivated by both the current theoretical gap and the practical demands of digital governance, this study employs panel data on Chinese listed companies spanning 2009–2023 to examine the complex influence of DA on ESG. Results show that data assets enhance ESG over the long term, although a temporary early-stage dampening effect is observed. Mechanism analyses indicate that data assets indirectly influence ESG through three main channels: capability improvement, resource empowerment, and governance optimization. The moderating effects indicate that this influence is stronger when supported by robust physical infrastructure and a conducive institutional environment. Further analysis identifies a forward spillover effect, in which data assets significantly improve ESG performance in downstream firms through supply-chain linkages. This spillover is more pronounced in companies with proprietary data assets, high interdependence, and similar ownership structures. This study addresses a gap in the existing literature by incorporating both the nonlinear dynamics and spillover characteristics of DA. It reveals how digital resource allocation, through structural transformation, fosters sustainable transitions within firms and across supply chains, offering a practical foundation for managers and policymakers to promote synergy between data governance and green development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 880-894"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.018
Giovanni Tagliani
The concepts of environmental sustainability and economic development, the former founded on the assumption of a planet with finite resources while the latter privileges growth driven by increasing returns, find their most difficult junction in the current era of climate change. Starting from the sustainable transition literature and structural dynamics models, this paper outlines a theory of production residuals showing how residuals are generated, their typology, and how to innovatively use them. The paper analyses the economic implications of residuals in the context of 'one way' and circular representations of production and contributes to the study of sustainable circular transitions.
{"title":"“Increasing returns through circularity: a theory of production residuals for sustainable circular transitions”","authors":"Giovanni Tagliani","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concepts of environmental sustainability and economic development, the former founded on the assumption of a planet with finite resources while the latter privileges growth driven by increasing returns, find their most difficult junction in the current era of climate change. Starting from the sustainable transition literature and structural dynamics models, this paper outlines a theory of production residuals showing how residuals are generated, their typology, and how to innovatively use them. The paper analyses the economic implications of residuals in the context of 'one way' and circular representations of production and contributes to the study of sustainable circular transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 913-925"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145525644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016
Arnaud Daymard
A high agricultural productivity is usually seen as a precondition for the development of industry and services, but this idea relies crucially on the assumption of an economy closed to international trade. In a globalized world, can a country industrialize or tertiarize without prior agricultural development? There is still little practical knowledge of this possibility. In this paper, I assess the relevance of closed- versus open-economy models of structural transformation using data on the sectoral productivity levels of developed and developing countries over the 1950–2018 period. The empirical findings suggest that most countries behave approximately as closed economies. Therefore, except for small city-state countries, the emphasis on agricultural development to achieve industrialization and tertiarization is justified. Nonetheless, the results reveal that in Latin America and Africa, a high agricultural productivity causes tertiarization with little development of the industrial sector. This “premature deindustrialization” hints at the influence of specific barriers to the creation of industrial jobs: an adverse business environment for large manufacturing firms and a downward trend in the world prices of manufacturing goods.
{"title":"Is agricultural productivity a prerequisite for structural transformation? Evidence on the role of trade openness","authors":"Arnaud Daymard","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A high agricultural productivity is usually seen as a precondition for the development of industry and services, but this idea relies crucially on the assumption of an economy closed to international trade. In a globalized world, can a country industrialize or tertiarize without prior agricultural development? There is still little practical knowledge of this possibility. In this paper, I assess the relevance of closed- versus open-economy models of structural transformation using data on the sectoral productivity levels of developed and developing countries over the 1950–2018 period. The empirical findings suggest that most countries behave approximately as closed economies. Therefore, except for small city-state countries, the emphasis on agricultural development to achieve industrialization and tertiarization is justified. Nonetheless, the results reveal that in Latin America and Africa, a high agricultural productivity causes tertiarization with little development of the industrial sector. This “premature deindustrialization” hints at the influence of specific barriers to the creation of industrial jobs: an adverse business environment for large manufacturing firms and a downward trend in the world prices of manufacturing goods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 828-848"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.013
Nixon S. Chekenya , Canicio Dzingirai
Climate change and demographic pressures are reshaping Africa’s security landscape. Extreme weather shocks disrupt livelihoods and often induce people to move, while many states face persistent violent conflict. Migration represents a potential connection between these two challenges, yet isolating its causal effect on conflict remains difficult due to endogeneity and measurement concerns. In this paper, we examine whether net international migration increases the incidence of violent conflict in Africa and assess if there are heterogenous effects across regions within Africa. We compile panel data for 54 African countries from 1997 to 2024, measuring net migration as the difference between inflows and outflows, and conflict incidence using geocoded event data. To address endogeneity, we instrument migration with historical rainfall variability (from 1901 to 1950), which shaped long-run settlement and mobility patterns but predates modern political institutions. Using a control function IV Poisson model suitable for equi-dispersed count data, we find that migration significantly increases conflict incidence, with effects concentrated in countries and regions in Africa with weak governance and economic stress. These results highlight the need for anticipatory governance strategies which address both mobility and fragility in contexts vulnerable to climate change and demographic pressure.
{"title":"Exporting violence? Migration and violent conflict in Africa","authors":"Nixon S. Chekenya , Canicio Dzingirai","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and demographic pressures are reshaping Africa’s security landscape. Extreme weather shocks disrupt livelihoods and often induce people to move, while many states face persistent violent conflict. Migration represents a potential connection between these two challenges, yet isolating its causal effect on conflict remains difficult due to endogeneity and measurement concerns. In this paper, we examine whether net international migration increases the incidence of violent conflict in Africa and assess if there are heterogenous effects across regions within Africa. We compile panel data for 54 African countries from 1997 to 2024, measuring net migration as the difference between inflows and outflows, and conflict incidence using geocoded event data. To address endogeneity, we instrument migration with historical rainfall variability (from 1901 to 1950), which shaped long-run settlement and mobility patterns but predates modern political institutions. Using a control function IV Poisson model suitable for equi-dispersed count data, we find that migration significantly increases conflict incidence, with effects concentrated in countries and regions in Africa with weak governance and economic stress. These results highlight the need for anticipatory governance strategies which address both mobility and fragility in contexts vulnerable to climate change and demographic pressure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"75 ","pages":"Pages 868-879"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号