Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Structural change in Morocco: Rethinking industrial policies

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.008

Wissal Sahel, Idriss El Abbassi

This article examines Morocco's structural transformation from 1960 to 2018, utilizing a longer time frame and a more detailed sectoral breakdown than previous studies. Our methodology combines the decomposition of labor productivity growth and structural decomposition analysis to assess the intensity and efficiency of sectoral shifts. Our findings indicate a significant increase in productivity from 2000 onward, primarily driven by within-sector productivity, unlike earlier decades where between-sector changes played a larger role. Since 2010, the manufacturing sector has emerged as the main driver of structural change. Additionally, both approaches highlight the overall slow pace of structural transformation in Morocco, predominantly due to the negative impact of foreign trade. In contrast, domestic demand and technological change have positively impacted sectoral growth. While sectors like automotive, aerospace, and service subsectors have shown growth potential, industries such as textiles, and agriculture remain vulnerable to external shocks and global competition.

引用次数: 0

Structural change and its discontents

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.009

Marco Rodolfo Di Tommaso , Elena Prodi , Dante Di Matteo , Elisa Barbieri

This paper explores the relationship between social discontent and labour market dynamics, particularly with respect to the creation and destruction of stable jobs. By bridging studies on discontent with the literature on structural dynamics, the paper conceives the former as a signal that some countries or regions are experiencing a trajectory of structural change characterized by economic deprivation and social inequality, rooted into limited access to secure and quality jobs. If not properly addressed by policymakers to achieve greater cohesion, this trajectory may lead to irreversible economic decline. Focusing on Italy, results show that jobs destruction amplifies support for anti-elite parties while the creation of secure jobs mitigates social discontent. Policy implications highlight the need for labour market, welfare and education measures fostering structural change trajectories that are sustainable, i.e., where the interests of both vulnerable and well-off socio-economic groups are reconciled in the definition of societal policy goals.

引用次数: 0

Roof or real estate? An agent-based model of housing affordability in The Netherlands

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.014

Ruben Tarne, Dirk Bezemer

Housing shortages in monetary economies are defined by affordability, which is the balance between income, savings and borrowing to access housing on one hand and purchase prices and rents, providing access, on the other. Yet analysis often confuses (monetary) affordability with (real) supply shortages. In a heterogeneous-agent housing market model calibrated on survey data, we analyse the housing affordability crisis in the Netherlands since around 2015. We find trade-offs between shocks to the housing supply, to interest rates and to banks’ loan-to-value norms by estimating their effects on house prices. Financial and monetary policies are alternatives to supply responses in reducing cyclical house price peaks and average house prices and increasing affordability.

引用次数: 0

Is artificial intelligence leading to a new technological paradigm?

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.006

Giacomo Damioli , Vincent Van Roy , Daniel Vertesy , Marco Vivarelli

Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative innovation with the potential to drive significant economic growth and productivity gains. This study examines whether AI is initiating a technological revolution, signifying a new technological paradigm, using the perspective of evolutionary neo-Schumpeterian economics. Using a global dataset combining information on AI patenting activities and their applicants between 2000 and 2016, our analysis reveals that AI patenting has accelerated and substantially evolved in terms of its pervasiveness, with AI innovators shifting from the ICT core industries to non-ICT service industries over the investigated period. Moreover, there has been a decrease in concentration of innovation activities and a reshuffling in the innovative hierarchies, with innovative entries and young and smaller applicants driving this change. Finally, we find that AI technologies play a role in generating and accelerating further innovations (so revealing to be “enabling technologies”, a distinctive feature of GPTs). All these features have characterised the emergence of major technological paradigms in the past and suggest that AI technologies may indeed generate a paradigmatic shift or, at least, a major radical transformation within the ICT paradigm.

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引用次数: 0

Higher prices in a more competitive market: The paradox in the retail electricity market in the United Kingdom

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.001

Huanhuan Chen , Jinke Li , Nigel O'Leary , Jing Shao

The UK retail electricity market experienced a decline in market concentration as new suppliers (retailers) competed with traditional incumbents. Concurrently, consumer-funded schemes were implemented to support low-carbon electricity generation. To disentangle the effects of these two developments on the retail price, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration model was applied to monthly data from 2010 to 2019. Results indicate that, while the costs of consumer-funded schemes contributed to the rising retail price, the declining market concentration unexpectedly pushed the retail price upward. Analysis of the six large suppliers shows that incumbents struggled to lower indirect costs as sales volumes fell, passing higher indirect costs per megawatt-hour to consumers. However, due to competitive pressure from new suppliers, incumbents were constrained from raising retail prices to fully cover these higher costs, resulting in lower profit margins. Thus, competition was evident not through lower retail prices but through its effect on incumbents' profitability.

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引用次数: 0

Do ICT trade balances and natural resources foster carbon emissions? The role of government effectiveness and green technology innovation

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.007

Muhammad Irfan , Abdul Quddus , Farrukh Shahzad , Yanfei Wang

BRICS economies have experienced high growth rates in their industries; however, at the same time, their environment has been severely polluted. Thus, this study, for the first time, investigates the impact of agriculture, forestry, fishing sectors, ICT goods imports and exports, government effectiveness, natural resources rents, green technology and innovation, and economic growth on carbon emissions in BRICS from 2000 to 2022. The study employs the generalized method of moment (GMM) for data analysis purposes. The results of GMM are further verified by using the generalized least square (GLS), common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) methods. Study results show that all variables positively affect carbon emissions except government effectiveness, which has a negative effect. The findings suggest that effective government measures reduce emissions, emphasizing the importance of strong governance and regulatory frameworks to address climate change.

引用次数: 0

Can big data aggregation help businesses save energy and reduce emissions? Quasi-natural experiment in big data comprehensive test

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.003

Jingyao Lv , Zhongxiu Zhao , Yongsheng Ji

Aggregating big data pieces is critical for increasing enterprise resource allocation efficiency, reducing energy usage, and lowering carbon emissions intensity. This research aims to investigate the impact of big data aggregation on energy efficiency and carbon emission intensity among Chinese enterprises. To this end, it employs primary financial data from Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2021 and carbon emissions data disclosed in social responsibility reports, sustainable development reports, and environmental reports. The findings revealed that the aggregation of big data elements dramatically reduces the intensity of carbon emissions in firms in the pilot regions. The decrease effect is more effective in economically developed places and regions with higher degrees of digitization, particularly for organizations in high-energy-consuming industries, and it is more robust for small and non-state-owned businesses. The aggregation of big data elements mainly aids firms in pilot regions in lowering energy consumption and emissions by increasing technical innovation and energy usage efficiency. To create a new national competitive advantage, we should actively promote the gradual expansion of the comprehensive pilot zone for big data, advance the in-depth application of big data in environmental governance, and better capitalize on the dividends of big data aggregation.

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引用次数: 0

Does digital infrastructure exacerbate income inequality? Evidence from the Broadband China Strategy

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.12.002

Dong Liang , Yu Liu , Meifang Zhou , Luben Zhao , Xinbei Li

As an important initiative to advance digital infrastructure, implementing the Broadband China Strategy (BCS) has substantially impacted urban income inequality. This paper employs a staggered difference-in-differences model to examine the effects of BCS on income inequality, revealing a 1.95 % decrease in income inequality in pilot cities compared to non-pilot cities. The mechanism analysis indicates that the BCS affects income inequality through skill-biased technical progress and shifts in the labor skill structure, with the latter playing a dominant role. Heterogeneity analysis indicates the reduction in income inequality is more pronounced in eastern regions, large cities, non-resource-based economies, newer industrial bases, as well as cities experiencing low-skill-biased technical progress and rapid updates to labor skill structures. Additionally, a spatial Durbin model further identifies the significant spatial spillover effects of the BCS on income inequality.

引用次数: 0

Impact of institutions on the corruption-financial development nexus in Africa: non linearities and thresholds

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.013

Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem, Wendelin Ndzana

In this article, using a sample of African countries, we test the hypothesis of a non-linear effect of corruption on financial development in the presence of weak public institutions. We also determine the institutional quality threshold at which corruption 'greases' or 'sands' the wheels of financial development. We carry out this empirical study using the dynamic panel quadratic polynomial approach and the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) approach. Three main results emerge. First, the relationship between corruption and financial development is non-linear and U-shaped. This relationship remains non-linear when the weak quality of public institutions is taken into account. Second, the effect of corruption on financial development depends on the quality of institutions. But the nature of the effect depends on the proxy for institutional quality used. Third, there is an institutional quality threshold at which the relationship between corruption and financial development becomes non-linear.

引用次数: 0

Structural change and productive interdependence: An analysis for Brazil

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.11.012

Luciano Ferreira Gabriel , Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro , José Firmino Sousa Filho

This paper aims to analyze Brazil's multisectoral productive interdependence and structural change by applying input-output methods and panel data estimations. The main findings suggest a reduced inter-sectoral convergence process in terms of growing service-manufacturing linkages. Manufacturing is losing multiplier intensity and importance compared to services. Most of the total output change in Brazil is due to changes in final demand, not technological change. Furthermore, structural change and interdependence between services and manufacturing do not suggest a growth-enhancing pattern.

引用次数: 0

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