Pub Date : 2025-08-17DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101355
Longmei Zhang , Ray Brooks , Ding Ding , Haiyan Ding , Hui He , Jing Lu , Rui C. Mano
China's national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its internal/external imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or led to large global imbalances when they flowed abroad. We find that high savings emanate mostly from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occurred during the transition from centrally planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contributed to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.
{"title":"China's high savings: Drivers, prospects, and policy implications","authors":"Longmei Zhang , Ray Brooks , Ding Ding , Haiyan Ding , Hui He , Jing Lu , Rui C. Mano","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101355","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China's national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its internal/external imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or led to large global imbalances when they flowed abroad. We find that high savings emanate mostly from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occurred during the transition from centrally planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contributed to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101355"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-14DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101356
Zhenshu Wu , Yi-Cheng Shih , Yao Wang , Rui Zhong
This study documents that high‑carbon emitters increase cash holdings by approximately 2.6% (7.9%) on average compared with low-carbon emitters after the implementation of the Paris Agreement (or the initiation of regional emission trading scheme pilots). High-carbon emitters with stronger external financial constraints and more volatile cash flows tends to hold more cash for precautionary motives. Further, cash flow is more valuable for high-carbon emitters after the implementation of decarbonization policies and increased net investing cash flow provides cash for high-carbon emitters in response to decarbonization. Additionally, high-carbon emitters conduct a green transition to reduce carbon emissions.
{"title":"The effects of decarbonization on corporate cash holdings","authors":"Zhenshu Wu , Yi-Cheng Shih , Yao Wang , Rui Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101356","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study documents that high‑carbon emitters increase cash holdings by approximately 2.6% (7.9%) on average compared with low-carbon emitters after the implementation of the Paris Agreement (or the initiation of regional emission trading scheme pilots). High-carbon emitters with stronger external financial constraints and more volatile cash flows tends to hold more cash for precautionary motives. Further, cash flow is more valuable for high-carbon emitters after the implementation of decarbonization policies and increased net investing cash flow provides cash for high-carbon emitters in response to decarbonization. Additionally, high-carbon emitters conduct a green transition to reduce carbon emissions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101356"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144888695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101354
Gang Qiao , Dongmin Kong , Lihua Liu
This paper examines the effect of China's 1999 higher education expansion on firm adoption of robots, employing a quasi-natural experiment. Using the difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the surge in college-educated labor from 2003 led firms in human capital-intensive industries to adopt fewer robots, reducing machine-to-human replacement. The effect is stronger in non-SOEs, financially constrained firms, large and high-tech firms, labor-intensive industries, and coastal areas. Mechanism tests suggest cheaper labor and human capital upgrading drive this reduction. These findings emphasize human capital's crucial role in mitigating robot-driven labor displacement and its broader impact on the job market.
{"title":"Higher education expansion and the adoption of robots in China","authors":"Gang Qiao , Dongmin Kong , Lihua Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101354","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effect of China's 1999 higher education expansion on firm adoption of robots, employing a quasi-natural experiment. Using the difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the surge in college-educated labor from 2003 led firms in human capital-intensive industries to adopt fewer robots, reducing machine-to-human replacement. The effect is stronger in non-SOEs, financially constrained firms, large and high-tech firms, labor-intensive industries, and coastal areas. Mechanism tests suggest cheaper labor and human capital upgrading drive this reduction. These findings emphasize human capital's crucial role in mitigating robot-driven labor displacement and its broader impact on the job market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101354"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144867528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101357
Yinghui Chen , Ting Ren , Youzhi Xiao , Heng Yue
We examine the impact of China's de-politicization regulation Rule 18 on corporate risk-taking. This rule mandates government officials to step down from their positions on the boards of public firms, thereby severing the political ties through official directors. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences design, our study reveals that the collapse of political connections results in a significant decrease in the level of risk-taking among politically connected firms. Furthermore, we identify bank credit and direct government support as plausible channels through which these effects manifest and highlight the presence of heterogeneous effects across different contextual factors.
{"title":"De-politicization and corporate risk-taking","authors":"Yinghui Chen , Ting Ren , Youzhi Xiao , Heng Yue","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101357","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of China's de-politicization regulation Rule 18 on corporate risk-taking. This rule mandates government officials to step down from their positions on the boards of public firms, thereby severing the political ties through official directors. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences design, our study reveals that the collapse of political connections results in a significant decrease in the level of risk-taking among politically connected firms. Furthermore, we identify bank credit and direct government support as plausible channels through which these effects manifest and highlight the presence of heterogeneous effects across different contextual factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101357"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144867529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101340
Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg
This study examines the impact of changing age structures on risky and risk-free assets. Considering that demographic transition is lagged in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the change in age structures will be more rapid than in advanced economies (AEs), we consider two panels of AEs and EMEs. Unlike previous literature on the demographic transition, we address the issue of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Our key findings suggest that the prime working-age population significantly influences both risky and risk-free assets in AEs and EMEs alike. However, the old-age dependency ratio tends to have a different impact on risk-free assets.
{"title":"Demographic transition and financial assets","authors":"Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of changing age structures on risky and risk-free assets. Considering that demographic transition is lagged in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the change in age structures will be more rapid than in advanced economies (AEs), we consider two panels of AEs and EMEs. Unlike previous literature on the demographic transition, we address the issue of cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Our key findings suggest that the prime working-age population significantly influences both risky and risk-free assets in AEs and EMEs alike. However, the old-age dependency ratio tends to have a different impact on risk-free assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101340"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-11DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101346
Guangling Liu, Marrium Mustapher
This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyze these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects, but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. Furthermore, these spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.
{"title":"Spillover effects of the recent US monetary policy shocks on the South African economy: The role of monetary and fiscal policy coordination","authors":"Guangling Liu, Marrium Mustapher","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101346","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101346","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyze these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects, but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. Furthermore, these spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101346"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144840899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101345
Zhiwen Wang
This paper examines the impact and mechanisms of common ownership between banks and firms on corporate ESG performance, by using a dataset derived from the lending and equity relationship between Chinese A-share listed companies and banks from 2009 to 2023. This common ownership significantly enhances corporate ESG performance through a financing channel that increases loan size and eases financing constraints, and an information channel that reduces information asymmetry and increases external regulation. The positive effect is particularly evident among firms with lower media attention and heavily polluting industries.
{"title":"The impact of common ownership between banks and firms on corporate ESG performance: Evidence from China","authors":"Zhiwen Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101345","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact and mechanisms of common ownership between banks and firms on corporate ESG performance, by using a dataset derived from the lending and equity relationship between Chinese A-share listed companies and banks from 2009 to 2023. This common ownership significantly enhances corporate ESG performance through a financing channel that increases loan size and eases financing constraints, and an information channel that reduces information asymmetry and increases external regulation. The positive effect is particularly evident among firms with lower media attention and heavily polluting industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101345"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343
Mingye Wei , Min Zhang , Lu Wei , Meiqi Chen
This paper develops IPOhelper based on statistical (financial, technological innovation indicators) and semantic cues (textual indicators) in registration statements, which is a novel predictive system for initial public offering (IPO) prediction. Based on 692 registration statements of technological innovation companies from 2019 to 2023, we found that the IPOhelper performs exceptionally well in predicting IPO outcomes. Compared with statistical cues, the predictive abilities of semantic features are particularly prominent. In particular, the semantic feature of “Technovation”, which reflects the adequacy of innovation-related information disclosure, is the most important feature for IPO prediction.
{"title":"IPOhelper: Mining features in registration statements for listing prediction of technological innovation companies","authors":"Mingye Wei , Min Zhang , Lu Wei , Meiqi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101343","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops IPOhelper based on statistical (financial, technological innovation indicators) and semantic cues (textual indicators) in registration statements, which is a novel predictive system for initial public offering (IPO) prediction. Based on 692 registration statements of technological innovation companies from 2019 to 2023, we found that the IPOhelper performs exceptionally well in predicting IPO outcomes. Compared with statistical cues, the predictive abilities of semantic features are particularly prominent. In particular, the semantic feature of “Technovation”, which reflects the adequacy of innovation-related information disclosure, is the most important feature for IPO prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"68 ","pages":"Article 101343"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101344
Mohammed Adem
This study examines the nonlinear impact of financial regulation on stability by considering financial development and business models. Using African countries' data (2002–2019) and two-stage instrumental variable (2SIV) estimation, I find that excessive regulation beyond a certain threshold harms stability. Increasing non-interest income business models can improve the effectiveness of financial regulations and development by strengthening stability. Powerful supervision, restrictions, and entry barriers contribute to instability. Non-interest income business models can reduce the negative impact of supervision and market discipline. The past values of financial regulation, non-interest income business models, and development contain information that helps predict stability.
{"title":"Intricacies of financial liberalization, business models, and financial development on Bank stability in Africa","authors":"Mohammed Adem","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the nonlinear impact of financial regulation on stability by considering financial development and business models. Using African countries' data (2002–2019) and two-stage instrumental variable (2SIV) estimation, I find that excessive regulation beyond a certain threshold harms stability. Increasing non-interest income business models can improve the effectiveness of financial regulations and development by strengthening stability. Powerful supervision, restrictions, and entry barriers contribute to instability. Non-interest income business models can reduce the negative impact of supervision and market discipline. The past values of financial regulation, non-interest income business models, and development contain information that helps predict stability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101344"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342
Runmei Luo, Yong Ye, Manman Li, Jingxin Li
This study examines whether and how private information transmitted by investors during interactions with managers affects corporate investment efficiency, with a particular focus on the role of managerial learning. Utilizing textual data from earnings communication conferences (ECCs) of Chinese listed companies, we find that the substantive information conveyed by investors helps mitigate firms' inefficient investment. Further analysis reveals that this mitigating effect is more pronounced when managers are highly competent or when firms place greater emphasis on investor protection, whereas it is weaker when CEOs are overconfident or when firms face more severe financing constraints. After conducting robustness checks on variable validity and sensitivity, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns, the main conclusions remain robust. Additional analyses suggest that managerial learning effects serve as the underlying mechanism through which the transmission of investors' private information influences investment efficiency, and such information transmission primarily suppresses inefficient investments by alleviating corporate underinvestment. This study underscores the informational role of investors in capital markets and provides critical insights for firms to optimize resource allocation.
{"title":"Pooling wisdom: The impact of investors' private information transmission on corporate investment efficiency","authors":"Runmei Luo, Yong Ye, Manman Li, Jingxin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ememar.2025.101342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines whether and how private information transmitted by investors during interactions with managers affects corporate investment efficiency, with a particular focus on the role of managerial learning. Utilizing textual data from earnings communication conferences (ECCs) of Chinese listed companies, we find that the substantive information conveyed by investors helps mitigate firms' inefficient investment. Further analysis reveals that this mitigating effect is more pronounced when managers are highly competent or when firms place greater emphasis on investor protection, whereas it is weaker when CEOs are overconfident or when firms face more severe financing constraints. After conducting robustness checks on variable validity and sensitivity, and addressing potential endogeneity concerns, the main conclusions remain robust. Additional analyses suggest that managerial learning effects serve as the underlying mechanism through which the transmission of investors' private information influences investment efficiency, and such information transmission primarily suppresses inefficient investments by alleviating corporate underinvestment. This study underscores the informational role of investors in capital markets and provides critical insights for firms to optimize resource allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47886,"journal":{"name":"Emerging Markets Review","volume":"69 ","pages":"Article 101342"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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