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Feeling the heat? Analyzing climate change sentiment in Spain using Twitter data 感受高温?利用推特数据分析西班牙的气候变化情绪
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101437
Maria L. Loureiro , Maria Alló

To shed light on the recent debate about climate change in this post-pandemic scenario, we take advantage of a unique dataset that combines geo-tagged social media data from Twitter in Spain from 2017 to 2022. Twitter conversations have been analyzed with natural language processing techniques to obtain sentiment scores related to climate change. These were merged with additional relevant control variables, aiming to understand the role of the contributing factors on the evolution of the hedonic scores, including external temperatures, the occurrence of heat waves, and deaths related to climate. We find a strong negative effect of external temperatures on sentiment, aggravated by recent increases in the frequency of heat waves and deaths related to climate. Further, this negative sentiment is accentuated after experiencing the recent COVID-19.

为了揭示在这种大流行后形势下有关气候变化的最新讨论,我们利用了一个独特的数据集,该数据集结合了 2017-2022 年期间西班牙推特上带有地理标记的社交媒体数据。我们利用自然语言处理技术对推特对话进行了分析,以获得与气候变化相关的情感评分。这些分数与其他相关控制变量进行了合并,旨在了解外部温度、热浪的发生以及与气候相关的死亡等因素对情绪分数演变的影响。我们发现,外部气温对情绪有强烈的负面影响,而近期热浪和与气候相关的死亡人数的增加则加剧了这种负面影响。此外,在经历了最近的 COVID-19 之后,这种负面情绪更加突出。
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引用次数: 0
Farm debt and the over-exploitation of natural capital 农业债务和自然资本的过度开发
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101439
Graeme Guthrie

This paper uses a stochastic optimal control model to show how standard loan contracts create incentives for farmers to focus on short-term financial performance at the expense of farms’ long-term natural capital. These incentives are a manifestation of the debt overhang problem. Extending this model shows how sustainability-linked loans can be used to weaken these incentives in a way that potentially benefits farmers and their bankers. The magnitude of the economic benefits generated by these loans depends on farm characteristics. The paper investigates the optimal design of sustainability-linked loans.

本文使用随机最优控制模型来说明标准贷款合同如何激励农民关注短期财务业绩,而牺牲农场的长期自然资本。这些激励是债务悬置问题的一种表现形式。对这一模型的扩展表明,与可持续发展挂钩的贷款可以用来削弱这些激励因素,从而使农民及其银行家潜在受益。这些贷款产生的经济效益的大小取决于农场的特点。本文研究了可持续性挂钩贷款的最佳设计。
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引用次数: 0
Domestic versus international emissions trading with capital mobility 具有资本流动性的国内与国际排放贸易
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2024.101433
Haitao Cheng

We employ the footloose capital model to examine and compare how two countries decide on their emission permits non-cooperatively under domestic and international emissions trading in the presence of capital mobility. We find that even if two countries are symmetric and have the same carbon prices under domestic emissions trading, they can benefit from international emissions trading. This finding holds regardless of capital mobility. We also find that allowing footloose capital increases each country’s and global emissions under domestic emissions trading; however, it does not affect emissions under international emissions trading. Additionally, we show that the cooperative choices of emission permits are the same regardless of international mobility of emission permits and capital and are always lower than the non-cooperative ones.

我们采用 "宽松资本 "模型来研究和比较在资本流动的情况下,两个国家如何在国内和国际排放贸易中以非合作的方式决定其排放许可证。我们发现,即使两个国家是对称的,在国内排放贸易下有相同的碳价格,它们也能从国际排放贸易中获益。无论资本流动性如何,这一结论都是成立的。我们还发现,在国内排放贸易下,允许资本自由流动会增加每个国家和全球的排放量;但在国际排放贸易下,这不会影响排放量。此外,我们还表明,无论排放许可证和资本的国际流动性如何,排放许可证的合作选择是相同的,并且总是低于非合作选择。
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引用次数: 0
Climate policy with electricity trade 气候政策与电力贸易
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101422
Stefan Ambec , Yuting Yang

Trade reduces the effectiveness of climate policies such as carbon pricing when domestic products are replaced by more carbon-intensive imports. We investigate the impact of unilateral carbon pricing on electricity generation in a country open to trade through interconnection lines. We characterize the energy mix with intermittent renewable sources of energy (wind or solar power). Electricity trade limits the penetration of renewables due to trade-induced competition. A carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) removes this limit by increasing the cost of imported power, or by deterring imports. The CBAM must be complemented by a subsidy on renewables to increase renewable generation above domestic consumption. The interconnection line is then used to export power rather than importing it when renewables are producing. We also examine network pricing and investment into interconnection capacity. A higher carbon price increases interconnection investment which further reduces the effectiveness of carbon pricing. In contrast, when renewable electricity is exported, a higher subsidy on renewables reduces further carbon emissions by expanding interconnection capacity.

当国内产品被碳密集度更高的进口产品取代时,贸易会降低碳定价等气候政策的有效性。我们研究了单边碳定价对一个通过互联线路开放贸易的国家发电量的影响。我们用间歇性可再生能源(风能或太阳能)来描述能源组合。由于贸易引发的竞争,电力贸易限制了可再生能源的渗透。碳边界调整机制(CBAM)通过增加进口电力的成本或阻止进口来消除这一限制。碳边界调整机制必须辅之以可再生能源补贴,以增加可再生能源发电量,使其高于国内消费量。这样,当可再生能源发电时,互联线路就被用来出口电力,而不是进口电力。我们还研究了网络定价和对互联容量的投资。较高的碳价格会增加互联投资,从而进一步降低碳定价的有效性。相反,当可再生能源电力被出口时,对可再生能源的更高补贴可通过扩大互联容量进一步减少碳排放。
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引用次数: 0
Global non-sustainable harvest of renewable resources reduces their present price but increases their net present value 全球不可持续的可再生资源收获降低了其当前价格,但增加了其净现值
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101409
Adam Lampert

Over-exploitation of natural resources is a major problem, and transitions to sustainable harvest are taking place worldwide. To determine the optimal harvesting strategy, including the optimal speed and approach to transition toward sustainable harvest, policymakers need to estimate the net present values of natural resources. Previous studies have shown that discounting reduces the future value of natural resources, but the long-term increase in their price may partially compensate for discounting. However, the price and future values of natural resources may also be affected by the transition from over-harvesting to sustainable harvest. Here we present a model that endogenizes the effect of non-sustainable harvest on the price of a renewable natural resource. We show that the transition to sustainable harvest is expected to increase the resource’s price significantly, at a rate that is greater than its long-term increase. Incorporating this effect increases the estimated net present value of ecosystems providing renewable natural resources.

对自然资源的过度开发是一个主要问题,全世界都在向可持续收获过渡。为了确定最佳收获策略,包括向可持续收获过渡的最佳速度和方法,政策制定者需要估计自然资源的净现值。先前的研究表明,贴现降低了自然资源的未来价值,但其价格的长期增长可能会部分补偿贴现。然而,自然资源的价格和未来价值也可能受到从过度采收到可持续采收的过渡的影响。在这里,我们提出了一个模型,该模型内化了不可持续收获对可再生自然资源价格的影响。我们表明,向可持续收获的过渡预计将显著提高资源的价格,其速度大于其长期增长。考虑到这一影响,提供可再生自然资源的生态系统的估计净现值就会增加。
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引用次数: 0
The energy transition: A balancing act 能源转型:一种平衡行为
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101408
Natalia Fabra , Mar Reguant

As the need for drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions becomes increasingly urgent, governments and policymakers are developing proposals for climate change policies that aim to achieve net-zero emissions. However, the challenge lies in determining the most effective way to operationalize this transformation. While cost efficiency is often emphasized as a desirable property, experience shows that it is neither necessary nor sufficient to achieve a desirable policy portfolio. Instead, we advocate for a broader definition of economic efficiency: policies must also be feasible, fair, effective, and credible. Trade-offs between these criteria are common, and must be balanced to create a successful policy portfolio. The European experience provides interesting case studies with which to illustrate these efficiency dimensions and their implications.

随着大幅减少全球温室气体排放的需求日益迫切,各国政府和政策制定者正在制定旨在实现净零排放的气候变化政策建议。然而,挑战在于确定实现这种转换的最有效方法。虽然成本效率经常被强调为一种理想的特性,但经验表明,要实现理想的政策组合,成本效率既不是必要的,也不是充分的。相反,我们主张对经济效率进行更广泛的定义:政策也必须是可行的、公平的、有效的和可信的。这些标准之间的权衡是常见的,必须加以平衡,才能创建成功的政策组合。欧洲的经验提供了有趣的案例研究,用以说明这些效率维度及其影响。
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引用次数: 1
Pollution-induced migration and environmental policy in an economic geography model 经济地理模型中由污染引起的移民和环境政策
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101420
María Victoria Caballero , María Pilar Martínez-García , José R. Morales

This paper develops a two-region New Economic Geography model with polluting firms subject to regional abatement policies. Pollution accumulates in the local environment and decreases the welfare of the population. We show that environmental policies have two opposing effects on welfare: they reduce nominal wages and increase environmental quality. If environmental regulations are equally strict in the two regions then population, pollution and wages tend to converge as trade becomes more open. If the two regions have different but unambitious environmental regulations, firms agglomerate in the laxer region, which becomes a pollution haven. However, a sufficiently far-reaching environmental policy in one of the regions raises its environmental quality, increasing its attractiveness for population and firms, and the emergence of a pollution haven is avoided. We also show that if the natural absorption rate of pollution is low, the environment recovers slowly, population and firms move between regions in a pollute-and-flee cycle and no static equilibrium is reached.

本文建立了一个两地区新经济地理模型,模型中的污染企业受地区减排政策的制约。污染会在当地环境中累积,并降低人口的福利。我们表明,环境政策对福利有两种相反的影响:降低名义工资和提高环境质量。如果两个地区的环境法规同样严格,那么随着贸易的日益开放,人口、污染和工资会趋于一致。如果两个地区的环境法规不同但都不严格,那么企业就会向较宽松的地区聚集,而后者就会成为污染的天堂。然而,如果其中一个地区的环境政策具有足够深远的意义,就会提高其环境质量,增加其对人口和企业的吸引力,从而避免出现污染天堂。我们还表明,如果污染的自然吸收率较低,环境恢复缓慢,人口和企业就会在污染-逃离循环中在地区间流动,不会达到静态平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Energy transition and climate change abatement: A macroeconomic analysis 能源转型与减少气候变化:宏观经济分析
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101423
Lucas Bretschger

The paper integrates the characteristics of regenerative energies into a dynamic macroeconomic model with climate change. Learning and economies of scale in new energy moderate the cost of emissions reductions and increase the speed of decarbonization. I provide closed-form analytical solutions for the development of regenerative energies, emissions, consumption, and population. The elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs, stringency of climate policy, and potential raw material scarcity constitute critical conditions for reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. I find that a timely carbon phase-out requires sufficient substitution in the energy sector, continued learning and scale effects in regenerative energies, and active climate policy, which is indispensable even with enormous cost degression of regenerative energies. Raw material scarcity induced by regenerative energy use slows down the transition but can be overcompensated by more stringent climate policy at a moderate economic cost.

本文将再生能源的特点纳入了一个包含气候变化的动态宏观经济模型。新能源的学习和规模经济可降低减排成本,提高去碳化速度。我为再生能源的发展、排放、消费和人口提供了闭式分析解决方案。清洁和肮脏能源投入之间的替代弹性、气候政策的严格程度以及潜在的原材料稀缺性构成了到 2050 年实现碳中和的关键条件。我发现,要实现及时的碳淘汰,需要能源部门的充分替代、再生能源的持续学习和规模效应,以及积极的气候政策,而即使再生能源的成本大幅下降,积极的气候政策也是不可或缺的。再生能源使用引起的原材料稀缺会减缓过渡进程,但可以通过更严格的气候政策以适度的经济成本加以弥补。
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引用次数: 0
Effectiveness of electric vehicle subsidies in China: A three-dimensional panel study 中国电动汽车补贴的有效性:三维面板研究
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101424
Tong Zhang , Paul J. Burke , Qi Wang

Electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to emerge as the main means of zero-emission road transport. China has used a variety of policy approaches to encourage EV adoption, including vehicle purchase subsidies. This study uses a three-dimensional dataset to estimate the effect of purchase subsidies for domestic EVs on adoption in 316 cities in China over January 2016–December 2019. An instrumental variable approach that utilizes the timing of the cancellation of local subsidies by the central government is pursued. The findings suggest that purchase subsidies for domestic EVs have led to a sizeable increase in uptake, but have discouraged uptake of imported EVs. Higher consumer awareness of the subsidies is associated with a larger proportional effect on uptake of domestically-produced vehicles. We estimate that increases in the per-vehicle subsidy rate have on average reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at a marginal subsidy cost of about 4453 CNY (US$712) per tonne, which is high. However other benefits, including long-run benefits from the emergence of a new clean technology sector, may be substantial.

电动汽车(EV)很可能成为零排放道路运输的主要手段。中国采用了多种政策方法来鼓励电动汽车的采用,其中包括购车补贴。本研究使用三维数据集估算了 2016 年 1 月至 2019 年 12 月期间,国产电动汽车购车补贴对中国 316 个城市采用电动汽车的影响。采用工具变量法,利用中央政府取消地方补贴的时间点进行估算。研究结果表明,对国产电动汽车的购买补贴大幅提高了电动汽车的使用率,但却阻碍了进口电动汽车的使用。消费者对补贴的认知度越高,对国产汽车使用率的影响比例就越大。我们估计,提高每辆车的补贴率平均减少了二氧化碳排放量,边际补贴成本约为每吨 4453 元人民币(712 美元),补贴率较高。然而,其他效益,包括新清洁技术行业的出现所带来的长期效益,可能是巨大的。
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引用次数: 0
Exclusion zones for renewable energy deployment: One man’s blessing, another man’s curse 可再生能源部署的禁区:一荣俱荣,一损俱损
IF 2.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101419
Paul Lehmann , Philip Tafarte

Exclusion zones, like protected areas or setback distances, are the most common policy instrument to mitigate environmental impacts of human land-use, including the deployment of renewable energy sources (RES). However, exclusion zones may also increase generation and environmental costs of RES deployment. This paper aims to understand and quantify these trade-offs. Using a simple analytical model, we propose that cost effects of exclusion zones can be decomposed into a substitution effect (because RES generation is shifted to sites with higher or lower marginal costs) and an output effect (because more sites may be needed to attain a given RES generation target). We provide a numerical illustration for two examples of exclusion zones – setback distances to settlements and forest bans – which are implemented for wind power deployment in Germany. We find that moderate setback distances reduce disamenity costs but also lead to increases in generation and other environmental costs. This trade-off is primarily due to the output effect. Importantly, the output effect also implies that very restrictive setback distances may fail to reduce, and even increase, aggregate disamenity costs of wind power deployment. For forest bans, our analysis reveals substantial increases in disamenity costs. This trade-off mainly results from the substitution effect. Our analytical insights can be transferred to other fields of environmental policy, for example, exclusion zones regulating agricultural land-use or urban development.

禁区(如保护区或后退距离)是减轻人类土地利用(包括可再生能源的应用)对环境影响的最常见政策工具。然而,禁区也可能增加可再生能源利用的发电成本和环境成本。本文旨在了解并量化这些权衡。通过一个简单的分析模型,我们提出禁区的成本效应可分解为替代效应(因为可再生能源发电被转移到边际成本较高或较低的地点)和产出效应(因为可能需要更多地点来实现给定的可再生能源发电目标)。我们用数字说明了德国在风力发电部署中实施的两个禁区实例--与居民区的后退距离和森林禁令。我们发现,适度的后退距离可降低环境污染成本,但也会导致发电成本和其他环境成本的增加。这种权衡主要归因于产出效应。重要的是,输出效应还意味着,非常严格的后退距离可能无法降低,甚至会增加风电部署的总体不公平成本。对于森林禁令,我们的分析揭示了不公平成本的大幅增加。这种权衡主要源于替代效应。我们的分析见解可应用于环境政策的其他领域,例如规范农业用地或城市发展的禁区。
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Resource and Energy Economics
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