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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Do deeds match words? India’s monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring 言行一致吗?印度货币政策需要 "言行一致 "才能锚定通胀
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002
Smita Roy Trivedi, Saibal Ghosh
Transparent and consistent communication is integral for effective central bank policymaking. The challenge is more acute in emerging markets where the spectrum of audience is wide and significantly heterogenous, each with their own information needs. To cater to this diverse spectrum, several central banks publish the records on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, detailing the minutes and voting by members. Whether such voting pattern by the members is consistent with their sentiments as embedded in the minutes of meetings remains an open question. To address this issue, we utilise data from Indian MPC, compute a sentiment index across member-meetings, and correlate it with their voting behaviour, after controlling for other confounding factors. Unlike prior studies, our analysis onboards a neutral sentiment, in addition to hawkishness and dovishness. The findings reveal that sentiments expressed by members in the MPC meetings is not always reflected in their voting behaviour, creating a chasm between deeds (voting) and words (sentiments). Robustness tests reinforce these findings, although there exist differential effects across internal versus external members. From a policy standpoint, the analysis suggests that MPCs need to ‘walk the talk' for effective inflation anchoring.
透明一致的沟通是中央银行有效决策不可或缺的一部分。在新兴市场,这一挑战更为严峻,因为新兴市场的受众范围广泛且差异巨大,每个人都有自己的信息需求。为了迎合这一多样化的需求,一些央行公布了货币政策委员会(MPC)的决策记录,详细介绍了会议记录和委员们的投票情况。委员们的这种投票模式是否与会议记录中蕴含的他们的观点一致,仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。为了解决这个问题,我们利用印度货币政策委员会的数据,计算了各成员会议的情绪指数,并在控制其他干扰因素后,将其与成员的投票行为相关联。与之前的研究不同,我们的分析除了鹰派和鸽派情绪外,还加入了中性情绪。研究结果表明,货币政策委员会成员在会议上表达的情绪并不总是反映在他们的投票行为中,这就造成了行动(投票)与言辞(情绪)之间的差距。尽管内部成员与外部成员之间存在不同的影响,但稳健性检验强化了这些发现。从政策角度来看,分析表明,货币政策委员会需要 "言行一致 "才能有效锚定通胀。
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引用次数: 0
Do greenfield foreign direct investments contribute to poverty reduction and economic growth in Africa? 绿地外国直接投资是否有助于非洲的减贫和经济增长?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.001
Friday Osemenshan Anetor
Most literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) establishes that FDI is beneficial to the welfare and growth of host countries. While this might largely be true, the question is, does all types of FDI produce similar benefits? As a result, this study examines the impact of greenfield FDI on poverty reduction and sustainable economic growth in 46 African countries between the periods 2003–2020 using the system generalized method of moments (System GMM), the fixed and random effect methods. The study found that greenfield FDI promotes poverty reduction in low-income, lower-middle-income, and upper-middle-income countries in Africa; however, its impact on sustainable economic growth is mostly insignificant. Based on these findings, this study provides some policy implication. These include the commitment of the government to the development of basic and productive infrastructures to attract greenfield investment in Africa. Policymakers should also design investment promotion policies, tools and processes such as corporate tax incentives, reduction of information asymmetries, and lower investment and administrative costs. This will make it easier for multinational firms to establish their businesses and expand their operations thereby improving the welfare of the citizenry.
大多数关于外国直接投资(FDI)的文献都认为FDI有利于东道国的福利和增长。虽然这在很大程度上可能是正确的,但问题是,所有类型的外国直接投资都能产生类似的好处吗?因此,本研究采用系统广义矩量法(system GMM)、固定效应和随机效应方法,考察了2003-2020年间46个非洲国家绿地FDI对减贫和可持续经济增长的影响。研究发现,绿地FDI促进了非洲低收入、中低收入和中高收入国家的减贫;然而,它对可持续经济增长的影响大多是微不足道的。基于这些发现,本研究提供了一些政策启示。其中包括政府致力于发展基础和生产性基础设施,以吸引非洲的绿地投资。决策者还应设计促进投资的政策、工具和流程,如企业税激励、减少信息不对称以及降低投资和行政成本。这将使跨国公司更容易建立其业务和扩大其业务,从而改善公民的福利。
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引用次数: 0
Occupation and demand for health services in Italy: Ways and means to reduce the opportunity costs imposed on patients 意大利的职业与医疗服务需求:减少病人机会成本的方法和途径
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.010
Giuliana De Luca , Michela Ponzo
This paper explores whether and to which extent employment condition and working hours influence individuals’ decision process in consuming primary care. The hypothesis is that the higher the workers’ opportunity cost in terms of earning forgone, the less the demand for General Practitioner (GP) visits. Using survey data provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), we estimate a negative binomial regression model of GP visits as a function of employment related variables, controlling for a rich set of individual demographic characteristics, socio-economic variables, health status, supply and geographical factors. We show that self-employed workers, managers and cadres use significantly less primary care services notwithstanding the access is free. We conclude that they have higher opportunity costs than white and blue collars since they suffer more from the loss of earnings related to the absence from work. Self-employed individuals often face barriers to accessing healthcare services, such as lack of employer-sponsored health insurance and concerns about lost income during time off for medical appointments. As a result, they may delay seeking healthcare until their condition becomes more severe, leading to poorer health outcomes. Managers and cadres, on the other hand, may have greater access to healthcare services due to higher income levels and better job benefits. However, they may still face challenges such as long working hours and job-related stress, which can impact their ability to prioritize their health and seek timely medical care.
From a policy perspective, our results suggest potential policy interventions aimed at addressing barriers to healthcare access for self-employed workers and promoting equitable healthcare utilization across different employment groups. Policy recommendations may include measures to enhance financial support (tax deductions for medical expenses, subsidies for health insurance premiums, or grants to cover the costs of healthcare-related absences from work), increase healthcare accessibility (enhancing the availability of mobile clinics, and extending operating hours for primary care facilities to accommodate the needs of working individuals) and raise awareness about preventive care among self-employed workers (workplace wellness programs, and incentives for regular health check-ups, screenings and healthy lifestyle choices, can encourage managers and self-employed workers to prioritize preventive measures). These policy implications are essential for ensuring equitable and universal access to healthcare services for all workers, regardless of their employment status.
本文探讨了就业条件和工作时间是否以及在多大程度上影响个体的初级保健消费决策过程。假设工人放弃收入的机会成本越高,对全科医生(GP)就诊的需求越少。利用意大利国家统计局(ISTAT)提供的调查数据,我们估计了GP就诊的负二项回归模型,作为就业相关变量的函数,控制了丰富的个人人口特征、社会经济变量、健康状况、供应和地理因素。我们表明,尽管初级保健服务是免费的,但个体经营者、管理人员和干部使用的初级保健服务明显减少。我们的结论是,他们比白领和蓝领有更高的机会成本,因为他们更容易遭受与失业相关的收入损失。个体经营者往往在获得医疗保健服务方面面临障碍,例如缺乏雇主赞助的健康保险,以及担心因就医而休假期间收入损失。因此,他们可能会推迟寻求医疗保健,直到他们的病情变得更严重,导致更差的健康结果。另一方面,由于较高的收入水平和更好的工作福利,管理人员和干部可能有更多的机会获得保健服务。然而,他们可能仍然面临着诸如长时间工作和与工作相关的压力等挑战,这可能会影响他们优先考虑健康和及时寻求医疗护理的能力。从政策角度来看,我们的研究结果表明,潜在的政策干预措施旨在解决个体经营者获得医疗保健的障碍,并促进不同就业群体公平利用医疗保健。政策建议可包括以下措施:加强财政支持(医疗费用减税、健康保险费补贴或补助,以支付因医疗保健而缺勤的费用)、增加获得医疗保健的机会(增加流动诊所的可用性;延长初级保健设施的营业时间,以满足工作人员的需要),提高个体户工人对预防保健的认识(工作场所健康计划,鼓励定期健康检查、筛查和选择健康的生活方式,可以鼓励管理人员和个体户工人优先采取预防措施)。这些政策影响对于确保所有工人(无论其就业状况如何)公平和普遍获得医疗保健服务至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Internalizing social value in healthcare: Optimal policy in mixed public-private systems 医疗保健的社会价值内部化:公私混合系统中的最优政策
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.007
Erez Yerushalmi , Sani Ziv
This paper examines the interplay between public and private healthcare in a system that internalizes non-marketed social value. We provide new estimates of the healthcare social value and highlight the importance of integrating it into national accounts for effective macroeconomic policy analysis. Traditional metrics often undervalue healthcare by neglecting these externalities, leading to a suboptimal allocation of healthcare services from a societal perspective. While both public and private healthcare generate social value, determining the optimal public-private mix is challenging because they do not necessarily produce the same type of value, and an unregulated mixed system can impose negative fiscal externalities on public provision. To address these issues, we develop a general equilibrium model with dual public-private healthcare services, calibrate the non-marketed social value, and simulate two market liberalization scenarios with optimal Pigouvian tax policies. A key finding with significant policy implications is that healthcare social value accounts for at least 28 % of public healthcare expenditure, or more.
本文考察了在一个内化非市场化社会价值的系统中公共和私人医疗保健之间的相互作用。我们提供了医疗保健社会价值的新估计,并强调将其纳入国民账户的重要性,以进行有效的宏观经济政策分析。传统的指标往往低估了医疗保健的价值,忽略了这些外部性,导致从社会的角度来看,医疗保健服务的次优分配。虽然公共和私人医疗保健都能产生社会价值,但确定最佳公私组合具有挑战性,因为它们不一定能产生相同类型的价值,而且不受监管的混合体系可能对公共服务造成负面的财政外部性。为了解决这些问题,我们建立了一个具有双重公私医疗服务的一般均衡模型,校准了非市场化的社会价值,并模拟了两种具有最优庇古税收政策的市场自由化情景。一项具有重大政策意义的关键发现是,医疗保健的社会价值至少占公共医疗保健支出的28%,甚至更多。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Consumption Index for ASEAN-6: A proxy developed with China as benchmark 东盟6国数字消费指数:以中国为基准开发的代理指标
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.001
Shaoying Wu, Yew Joe Ho
The nexus between economic growth and digitalization is increasingly intertwined. Challenges related to data availability and continuity have posed significant impediments to the development of viable measurements, such as the digital economy index and digital adoption index, for tracking the level of digitalization in emerging markets like the ASEAN-6. This paper introduces a proxy digital economy index that is both concise and adaptable to mitigate the current shortcomings. Employing a hierarchical equal-weighted method with China as the benchmark, a short series of the Digital Consumer Index was computed from 2017 to 2022. The findings of the paper suggests that ASEAN-6 nations must collectively intensify their efforts to bolster digital transformation. The proposed index establishes a foundational framework for future advancements. It facilitates a more immediate assessment of the digital economy's trajectory within ASEAN countries, allowing policymakers to make informed decisions while concurrently setting the stage for more comprehensive digital economy accounting practices in the future.
经济增长与数字化之间的联系日益紧密。与数据可用性和连续性相关的挑战对制定可行的衡量标准构成了重大障碍,例如数字经济指数和数字采用指数,用于跟踪东盟六国等新兴市场的数字化水平。本文引入了一个简洁、适应性强的代理数字经济指标,以缓解目前的不足。采用等级制等加权法,以中国为基准,计算了2017年至2022年数字消费者指数的短序列。本文的研究结果表明,东盟6国必须共同加强努力,支持数字化转型。拟议的指数为未来的进步建立了一个基础框架。它有助于更直接地评估东盟国家的数字经济轨迹,使政策制定者能够做出明智的决定,同时为未来更全面的数字经济会计实践奠定基础。
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引用次数: 0
Efficiency in poverty reduction in Bolivia 玻利维亚减少贫困的效率
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.001
Gustavo Canavire-Bacarreza , Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas , Javier Beverinotti
A decline in poverty at the national level can mask regional disparities related to heterogeneous levels of efficiency among states that may limit the effectiveness of poverty reduction programs. To address this, we propose an empirical framework to unveil regional differences in poverty reduction and their drivers. Our method identifies the potential for poverty reduction and the factors crucial for designing place-based public policies. Applying this method to Bolivia for the period 2000–2021, we find that inefficiency in poverty reduction is largely persistent in specific states, underscoring the need for long-term strategies, especially those targeting informality and unemployment.
国家层面的贫困下降可以掩盖与各州效率水平不同相关的地区差异,这些差异可能会限制减贫计划的有效性。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一个实证框架,以揭示减贫及其驱动因素的区域差异。我们的方法确定了减贫的潜力和设计基于地方的公共政策的关键因素。将这一方法应用于玻利维亚2000-2021年期间,我们发现,在某些州,减贫效率低下在很大程度上是持续存在的,这凸显了制定长期战略的必要性,特别是针对非正式和失业的战略。
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引用次数: 0
Immunity-driven comparative advantage and its palliative effect on social health and inequality 免疫驱动的比较优势及其对社会健康和不平等的缓和作用
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.008
Sugata Marjit , Gouranga G. Das , Mausumi Kar
We propose a model of “trade” between high-income and low-income groups where the rich, fearing the spread of infection hires the poor for exposure-intensive outdoor activities as workers in the household industry. The greater the inequality, with social distancing and herd-immunity during Covid-19 pandemic, the more would be such inter-personal exchanges increasing demand for top-skilled and gig activities. The general equilibrium model and econometric estimation support this view offering policymakers insights to assess the impact of such gainful exchanges for improving wage inequality in the developing nations where informal sectors cushioned the income-inequality effects unlike the developed countries without informalization.
我们提出了一种高收入和低收入群体之间的“贸易”模式,其中富人担心感染的传播,雇佣穷人作为家庭工业工人从事暴露密集型户外活动。在Covid-19大流行期间,社会距离和群体免疫的不平等程度越高,这种人际交流就会越多,这增加了对高技能和零工活动的需求。一般均衡模型和计量经济学估计支持这一观点,为政策制定者提供了见解,以评估这种有益的交换对改善发展中国家的工资不平等的影响,在发展中国家,非正规部门缓冲了收入不平等的影响,而发达国家没有非正规部门。
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引用次数: 0
A tale of the two recessions 2008 and 2020: What do the Taylor rule, the Phillips curve and Okun's law tell? 2008年和2020年两次衰退的故事:泰勒法则、菲利普斯曲线和奥肯定律说明了什么?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.001
Knut L. Seip , Dan Zhang
The study compares the recessions in 2008 and the recession in 2020 using the Taylor rule, Okun’s law and the Phillips curve. We propose measures to forecast recessions and guide policy responses to mitigate their impact: i) Sharp “spikes” in the 21-month moving average of Okun’s law and Phillips curve variables indicate that shifts in their lead-lag relations could serve as early warning signals for impending recessions; ii) A more balanced increase in monetary supply could potentially shorten recession durations without accelerating inflation during the post-recession recovery; iii) deviations from the Taylor rule did not worsen the economy.
该研究使用泰勒法则、奥肯定律和菲利普斯曲线对2008年的衰退和2020年的衰退进行了比较。我们提出了预测衰退和指导政策应对的措施,以减轻其影响:i)奥肯定律和菲利普斯曲线变量的21个月移动平均值的急剧“峰值”表明它们的领先滞后关系的变化可以作为即将到来的衰退的早期预警信号;ii)在经济衰退后的复苏过程中,更加平衡地增加货币供应可能会缩短衰退持续时间,而不会加速通胀;偏离泰勒规则并没有使经济恶化。
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引用次数: 0
Improving waste collectors' environmental responsibilities in Indonesia: A policy framework 改善印度尼西亚废物收集者的环境责任:政策框架
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.005
Made Adi Widyatmika, Nomesh B. Bolia
The responsibility of the garbage collector officer towards the environment largely determines the reliability of the waste management system. The study develops a policy framework for a waste management system using an SEM approach to the environmental responsibility of a garbage collector officer. From a case study in Indonesia, a survey of 246 formal waste collectors in Denpasar’s waste management system assessed their opinion of the internal service quality. The analysis determines the impact of internal service quality elements on job satisfaction and environmental responsibility. Model-fit statistics confirm the validity and reliability of the model and indicate that tangibility, reliability, assurance, and empathy positively affect job satisfaction. Meanwhile, management responsiveness does not have a statistically significant effect. The study suggests that waste management should acknowledge the indirect influence of internal service quality on the environmental responsibility of waste collectors through job satisfaction factors.
垃圾收集员对环境的责任在很大程度上决定了垃圾管理系统的可靠性。本研究采用 SEM 方法,针对垃圾收集员的环境责任,制定了垃圾管理系统的政策框架。通过对印度尼西亚登巴萨(Denpasar)垃圾管理系统中 246 名正式垃圾收集员的案例研究,调查评估了他们对内部服务质量的看法。分析确定了内部服务质量要素对工作满意度和环境责任感的影响。模型拟合统计证实了模型的有效性和可靠性,并表明有形性、可靠性、保证性和同理心会对工作满意度产生积极影响。同时,管理响应性在统计上没有显著影响。研究表明,废物管理部门应认识到内部服务质量通过工作满意度因素对废物收集者环境责任的间接影响。
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引用次数: 0
Overeducation under different macroeconomic conditions: How Spanish university graduates fit in the labor market? 不同宏观经济条件下的过度教育:西班牙大学毕业生如何适应劳动力市场?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.001
Maite Blázquez Cuesta, Marco A. Pérez Navarro, Rocío Sánchez-Mangas
This paper analyzes a relevant issue for education and labor policymakers, overeducation in the early careers of university graduates. Using Spanish data, we investigate the role played by the business cycle and field of study and their interaction in shaping both the incidence and persistence of overeducation. We also analyze the relevance of specific types of knowledge and skills as driving factors in reducing overeducation risk. Our data come from the Survey on the Labor Insertion of University Graduates (EILU) conducted by the Spanish National Statistics Institute in 2014 and 2019. The survey collects rich information on cohorts that graduated in 2019 and 2014, during the Great Recession and the subsequent economic recovery, respectively. Our results show, first, the relevance of the economic scenario when graduates enter the labor market. Graduation during a recession increases overeducation risk and persistence. Second, a clear heterogeneous pattern is observed across fields of study, with health sciences graduates displaying better performance in terms of both overeducation incidence and persistence and less impact of the business cycle. Third, we find evidence that some transversal skills can help to reduce overeducation risk in the absence of specific knowledge required for the job, thus indicating some kind of compensatory role. Our findings have important policy implications. Overeducation, and more importantly overeducation persistence, imply a non-neglectable misallocation of resources, with serious consequences not only for the affected individuals but for the society as a whole. Therefore, policymakers need to address this issue in the design of education and labor market policies, seeking to ensure that the competencies acquired at university provide graduates with a better fit in the labor market.
本文分析了一个与教育和劳动政策制定者相关的问题,即大学毕业生早期职业生涯中的过度教育。利用西班牙的数据,我们调查了商业周期和研究领域在塑造过度教育的发生率和持久性方面所起的作用。我们还分析了特定类型的知识和技能作为降低过度教育风险的驱动因素的相关性。我们的数据来自西班牙国家统计局在2014年和2019年进行的大学毕业生劳动力插入调查(EILU)。该调查收集了2019年和2014年毕业的毕业生的丰富信息,分别是在大衰退期间和随后的经济复苏期间。我们的研究结果表明,首先,毕业生进入劳动力市场时的经济情景的相关性。在经济衰退期间毕业增加了过度教育的风险和持久性。其次,在研究领域中观察到明显的异质性模式,健康科学毕业生在过度教育发生率和持久性方面表现更好,并且受商业周期的影响较小。第三,我们发现有证据表明,在缺乏工作所需的特定知识的情况下,一些横向技能可以帮助减少过度教育的风险,从而表明某种补偿作用。我们的研究结果具有重要的政策意义。过度教育,更重要的是持续过度教育,意味着一种不可忽视的资源错配,不仅对受影响的个人,而且对整个社会都有严重后果。因此,政策制定者需要在设计教育和劳动力市场政策时解决这个问题,寻求确保在大学获得的能力为毕业生提供更好的劳动力市场。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Policy Modeling
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