Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010
Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder
US international trade policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.
{"title":"US international trade policy: Scenarios of protectionism and trade wars","authors":"Sherman Robinson , Karen Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>US international trade<span><span> policy under both the Trump and Biden administrations has been increasingly protectionist. This paper considers two policy scenarios under active discussion: (1) an across-the-board increase in all US tariffs by 10 percentage points, and (2) a severe escalation of the US trade war with China. The scenarios are analyzed using a multi-country computable general equilibrium<span> (CGE) simulation model of the global economy. Trade wars or policy regimes of widespread protection will increase tariffs in many sectors simultaneously and include both final goods and intermediate inputs. The impacts are complex, with a web of direct and indirect forces coming into play across domestic and international markets. The global </span></span>CGE model captures these mechanisms, including both short and long-run effects, with and without retaliation by partner countries. In a world economy where the US accounts for only 10 % of global trade and potentially rival </span></span>trade bloc have emerged in Europe and E&SE Asia, the US is no longer hegemonic in global markets. We find that across-the-board tariffs do not protect manufacturing jobs because the cost of imported intermediate goods increases, raising costs in manufacturing production. The US trade war with China leads to a dramatic fall in bilateral trade. Other countries expand their trade to China and the US with the exception of closely linked partners (e.g. Canada and Mexico and all countries in E&SE Asia). We find that the world economy can adjust to US trade wars, diverting trade around the US.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 723-739"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141698867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001
{"title":"Fiscal revenue mobilization and digitally traded products: Taxing at the border or behind it?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 779-801"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009
Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi
{"title":"Relationship between trade and growth for developing countries at different levels of income","authors":"Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 813-822"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141962539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008
{"title":"How to get monetary policy back on track","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 706-713"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007
{"title":"The economic determinants of world disorder events: An empirical analysis","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 740-756"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013
This paper examines the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade and compares them with those associated with trade restrictions. Our main result is that capital account restrictions have large and statistically significant effects on trade flows. Such effects are smaller than those from trade restrictions, however. The effects of exchange and capital restrictions are larger for trade in goods, especially for agriculture and manufacturing, and smaller for trade in services.
{"title":"Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This paper examines the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade and compares them with those associated with trade restrictions. Our main result is that capital account restrictions have large and statistically significant effects on trade flows. Such effects are smaller than those from trade restrictions, however. The effects of exchange and capital restrictions are larger for trade in goods, especially for agriculture and manufacturing, and smaller for </span>trade in services.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 763-778"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141552363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006
Barry Eichengreen
{"title":"Globalization and growth in a bipolar world","authors":"Barry Eichengreen","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 714-722"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141609571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008
Fred Campano, Dominick Salvatore
{"title":"Trade and growth and the likely output of GDP in 2025","authors":"Fred Campano, Dominick Salvatore","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"46 4","pages":"Pages 757-762"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141842417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002
Smitaroy Trivedi, Saibal Ghosh
Transparent and consistent communication is integral for effective central bank policymaking. The challenge is more acute in emerging markets where the spectrum of audience is wide and significantly heterogenous, each with their own information needs. To cater to this diverse spectrum, several central banks publish the records on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, detailing the minutes and voting by members. Whether such voting pattern by the members is consistent with their sentiments as embedded in the minutes of meetings remains an open question. To address this issue, we utilise data from Indian MPC, compute a sentiment index across member-meetings, and correlate it with their voting behaviour, after controlling for other confounding factors. Unlike prior studies, our analysis onboards a neutral sentiment, in addition to hawkishness and dovishness. The findings reveal that sentiments expressed by members in the MPC meetings is not always reflected in their voting behaviour, creating a chasm between deeds (voting) and words (sentiments). Robustness tests reinforce these findings, although there exist differential effects across internal versus external members. From a policy standpoint, the analysis suggests that MPCs need to ‘walk the talk' for effective inflation anchoring.
{"title":"Do deeds match words? India’ monetary policy needs to “walk the talk” for inflation anchoring","authors":"Smitaroy Trivedi, Saibal Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"Transparent and consistent communication is integral for effective central bank policymaking. The challenge is more acute in emerging markets where the spectrum of audience is wide and significantly heterogenous, each with their own information needs. To cater to this diverse spectrum, several central banks publish the records on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, detailing the minutes and voting by members. Whether such voting pattern by the members is consistent with their sentiments as embedded in the minutes of meetings remains an open question. To address this issue, we utilise data from Indian MPC, compute a sentiment index across member-meetings, and correlate it with their voting behaviour, after controlling for other confounding factors. Unlike prior studies, our analysis onboards a neutral sentiment, in addition to hawkishness and dovishness. The findings reveal that sentiments expressed by members in the MPC meetings is not always reflected in their voting behaviour, creating a chasm between deeds (voting) and words (sentiments). Robustness tests reinforce these findings, although there exist differential effects across internal versus external members. From a policy standpoint, the analysis suggests that MPCs need to ‘walk the talk' for effective inflation anchoring.","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141553085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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