Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

In the current era of EU-driven strategies for sustainable local development, the EU Commission has designated the geographical indication (GI) policy as a flagship initiative in 2024. The certification procedure has been simplified, with increased involvement from national and local authorities. This study explores the potential impact of reforms on GIs in Italy, focusing on whether the birthplaces of regional council members receive preferential acknowledgment. Analysing municipal-level data, we employ a Difference in Differences approach and machine learning for counterfactual analysis. Results indicate a higher likelihood of GIs for councillors' birth municipalities, particularly in areas with lower ex-ante institutional quality. These findings underscore the potential consequences of EU reform, warning against political favouritism and inefficient policy management.

The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990 s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged as a potential remedy. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the changing contours of vulnerability arising from the rising foreign currency leverage of 818 non-financial corporates in India during 2004–2022. In particular, this paper examines the impact of exchange rate shocks and changes in certain key macroeconomic policy variables on the financial vulnerabilities of these firms. Our findings unequivocally indicate that during exchange rate depreciation, unhedged exposures significantly amplified the vulnerability of Indian firms. While our study centres on India, the overarching conclusions and insights derived from our analysis possess broader ramifications for emerging economies grappling with capital account restrictions. The policy implications of our research underscore the need to proactively strengthen the macroprudential toolkit to address the risks associated with foreign currency borrowing and ensure more robust risk management practices to prevent the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities.

We investigate the response of aggregate demand (AD) components and inflation to monetary policy (MP) shocks in the Tunisian context where studies on this issue are rare. By estimating SVAR models on historical data ending in 2021, we found that: i) The Tunisian Central Bank’s (TCB) efforts to control inflation through interest rate tightening end up significantly slowing down private investment and consumption, while inflation response is not enough to mitigate the recently exacerbated inflationary trend; ii) Such efforts are hampered, if not outweighed, by the “pass-through” effect associated with exchange-rate continued depreciation; iii) The interest rate is Granger-caused by the exchange rate rather than the inflation rate, suggesting that de jure and de facto objectives of the TCB are divergent; and iv) The continued exchange rate depreciation alone is not enough to address the structural trade deficit. In light of these findings, we suggest that i) The transition from a discretionary MP to a rule-based inflation-targeting MP and with a well-defined role for the exchange rate, would help TCB gain credibility and improve efficiency of its MP; and ii) Tunisian policymakers should also consider consolidating MP in achieving its price stabilization objective particularly through implementing “supply-side policy” actions aiming at promoting economic growth and addressing unsustainable fiscal and external imbalances.

The paper investigates the effect of a (semi-) deposit run during a debt crisis on crime rates. The study focuses on Greece’s protracted debt crisis (2009–2018) and analyzes the response of crime to deposit outflows. It shows that deposit outflows corresponded to a significant increase in property crimes (thefts and burglaries), but not other types of offenses. The study provides useful policy insights for regulatory authorities tasked with monitoring and decreasing the criminogenic effects of financial destabilization

A disordered energy transition might impact borrowers’ ability to repay and service debt; this calls for methods for integrating climate into credit risk modelling. This integration is required not only for risk management, but also for adjusting credit ratings for collateral pledged in Eurosystem monetary policy operations. This study introduces an innovative methodology to evaluate Italian non-financial firms' exposure to climate policy risks, gauging the impact of climate policies on firm-level default probability (PD). By simulating a shock to energy expenditure originating from different levels of a carbon tax, we analyze the potential impact on firms’ PD. Our method offers a comprehensive understanding of the channels through which energy shocks propagate and their implications on firms’ vulnerability. Our findings show that the impact of carbon taxation on credit risk would be contained, raising the average PD by a range of 0.6–4.1 basis points according to the different levels of carbon tax. The effect is slightly larger for the Agriculture and Services sector, while there is no clear pattern relating to firm size.

Immunization programs globally have played a pivotal role in reducing mortality rates. However, the effectiveness of these programs often falls short of the intended coverage targets, primarily due to challenges within the supply chain, storage facilities, and distribution processes. Notably, a substantial percentage of vaccine wastage has been observed in numerous countries, thereby imposing a significant financial burden on immunization initiatives, and presenting a formidable challenge to policymakers. This paper undertakes a comprehensive study of the financial dynamics inherent in an immunization program within the context of India. Employing a systems perspective, we scrutinize the intricate interactions among various cost factors. Through a five-year system dynamics simulation, we derive insights into the amplified financial constraints resulting from vaccine wastage and the inefficiencies associated with shared personnel. Furthermore, our analysis extends to evaluate the impact of an additional investment aimed at enhancing the quality of the cold chain infrastructure and health worker proficiency on the overall funds of the immunization program. This research contributes to a nuanced understanding of the financial intricacies of immunization programs, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to optimize program efficiency and resource allocation.

The recent financial crisis caused by corruption and opacity has led us to examine how the informal economy and other factors affect tax revenues using a three-pillar theoretical analysis. Empirical research has not thoroughly explored the shadow economy's impact on direct and indirect taxes, tax revenues, and the central bank's independence from the shadow economy and tax collection. This paper used 2010–2018 data from 129 countries. The shadow economy and tax revenues had a substantial negative relationship. The shadow economy also changed the fiscal authorities' policy mix by reducing direct taxes and increasing indirect taxes. Finally, the central bank's independence mitigated the shadow economy's negative effects on tax revenues.

We address the issue of inequalities in educational achievements among social groups, within the framework of Sustainable Development Goal 10 (SDG10). Despite efforts to distribute resources equitably and implement affirmative government actions, educational inequalities remain a significant challenge, partially due to the continuing impact of social group dynamics. Previous studies have emphasized the possibility of improving individual capabilities to address this issue. However, the quantitative studies that examine this issue are underexplored. We utilize data from the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) 2011–12 to examine the effect of individual capabilities and social group affiliations on educational achievements. We employ ordered logit regression, decomposition analysis, and instrumental variable approach to analyze the data. The findings of our study indicate that while government interventions and policies have had some impact, a more focused approach and policy change on individual capability is necessary. We propose a policy framework emphasizing early identification and development of key capabilities. These are mass media exposure, parental participation of professional groups, and good physical health, especially for marginalized sections. The study advocates for equipping schools with digital and mass media resources, establishing community programs for financial literacy, and engaging families to understand the importance of these capabilities. This dual approach aims to enhance individual capabilities and reduce the influence of social group dynamics, contributing to more equitable and inclusive educational outcomes and broader societal sustainability. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and contribute to the global debate on sustainable development and educational equality.

Institutional quality has been opined as a significant determinant of FDI inflow in international business literature. On the contrary, literature on determinants of institutional quality and how it changes is scant and merits further study. This study analyses the impact of FDI on institutional distance in the context of India and its partner countries, i.e., whether it leads to convergence or divergence of institutional distance. We identified a significantly positive impact of FDI on institutional distance. Further, to capture the heterogeneity among our partner countries, we subdivided our sample based on the partner country's development level and analysed the source of change in institutional distance.

Regulatory harmonisation stands as a central issue in the European Union (EU), playing a key role in achieving the single market. Accounting harmonisation, in particular, has been the subject of different regulatory frameworks, mainly directives. However, the literature suggests that the implementation of these directives within the EU does not consistently meet its harmonisation goals due to diverse legal, cultural, and business interpretations among the Member States. In the realm of social and environmental accounting, Directive 2014/95/EU (NFRD) compels specific companies to prepare and present Sustainability Reports (SRs), with the primary goal of enhancing the availability of sustainability information while also fostering greater consistency and comparability. Nevertheless, the flexibility afforded by this Directive may give rise to divergences among the national regulations of the EU Member States, as has been the case previously. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the success of the NFRD in harmonising sustainability disclosure by examining the quantity and homogeneity of such information disclosed in the SRs of 100 large agri-food companies in Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain. To do so, a content analysis and non-parametric tests were applied. The findings show a limited performance and high heterogeneity in disclosure across countries, suggesting that the NFRD has fallen short of harmonising national regulations on disclosing sustainability information.