Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

英文中文

Exclusive quota for economically weaker sections 经济较弱地区的排他性配额

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.001

Shivendra Kumar Pandey

Literature indicates that candidates from higher socio-economic strata within the marginalised castes/ethnicities reap the benefits of affirmative action (AA). Some governments addressed the issue by incorporating socio-economic measures with caste/ethnicity in AA. However, no government has implemented a quota purely based on income for the non-marginalised castes/ethnicities. India provides a unique setting as it started an exclusive quota in higher educational institutes for upper castes’ economically weaker section (EWS) candidates. Our model tests and finds that EWS candidates performed similar to general candidates throughout the academic career and also in the Combined Admissions Test (CAT) for entering into the prestigious Indian Institutes of Managements (IIMs). However, females require AA to make it to the IIMs in sizeable proportions. We recommend adding weight to the magnitude of poverty within the EWS category in the AA policy and providing quotas for females within castes in higher education.

文献表明，来自边缘化种姓/种族中较高社会经济阶层的候选人可以从平权行动（AA）中获益。一些政府通过将社会经济措施与种姓/种族纳入AA来解决这个问题。然而，没有一个政府对非边缘化种姓/种族实施纯粹基于收入的配额。印度提供了一个独特的环境，因为它开始为高种姓经济较弱部分（EWS）的候选人提供高等教育机构的独家配额。我们的模型测试发现，EWS候选人在整个学术生涯中的表现与普通候选人相似，在进入著名的印度管理学院（IIMs）的综合入学考试（CAT）中也是如此。然而，相当大比例的女性需要AA才能进入印度管理学院。我们建议在AA政策中增加EWS类别贫困程度的权重，并在高等教育中为不同种姓的女性提供配额。

引用次数: 0

Labor productivity and the role of labor market deregulation: Are there limits? Evidence from BRICS 劳动生产率和劳动力市场放松管制的作用：有限制吗？来自金砖国家的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.002

Oleg Mariev , Sophia V. Turkanova , Suleiman O. Mamman

Labor market deregulation has been a contentious issue over time, with debates mainly focusing on its macroeconomic effects. To this end, this study examines the impact of labor deregulation on labor productivity in BRICS countries, premised on the endogenous growth model. To account for strong endogeneity bias, this study uses the bias-corrected method of moments estimators for annual data from 1991 to 2023. The main empirical findings reveal that labor productivity persists over time. Secondly, it was observed that deregulation has an asymmetric effect with initial deregulation enhancing productivity levels, but excessive deregulation leads to diminishing returns. Also, capital investment was observed to boosts productivity levels, while the effects of human capital development, migration flow, and total factor productivity are mixed and inconclusive. One of the policy implications of the study highlights the need for balanced deregulation to maximize productivity gains without adverse effects. More so, the study highlights the heterogeneity among BRICS countries, suggesting the need for collaborative efforts and tailored policies to enhance productivity in the long term.

劳动力市场放松管制一直是一个有争议的问题，争论主要集中在其宏观经济影响上。为此，本研究在内生增长模型的前提下，考察了金砖国家劳动放松管制对劳动生产率的影响。为了解释强烈的内生性偏差，本研究对1991年至2023年的年度数据使用了偏差校正的矩估计方法。主要实证结果表明，劳动生产率随时间的推移而持续存在。其次，我们观察到放松管制与初始放松管制提高生产率水平具有不对称效应，但过度放松管制导致收益递减。此外，资本投资被观察到提高生产率水平，而人力资本开发、移民流动和全要素生产率的影响是混合的和不确定的。该研究的政策含义之一强调了平衡放松管制的必要性，以最大限度地提高生产率而不产生不利影响。此外，该研究还强调了金砖国家之间的异质性，表明需要通过合作努力和量身定制的政策来长期提高生产率。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling regional exposure to new trade wars 模拟新贸易战对地区的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.001

Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez , Fatima El Khatabi , Carlos Llano , Julián Pérez

The COVID-19 pandemic and recent geopolitical events have triggered a new wave of protectionism. The return of Trump to the White House, a new trade war has just started. With the aim of addressing the territorial effect of trade policy, this study quantifies the effects of two significant protectionism measures announced by the US against the EU before the pandemic: the Boeing-Airbus trade dispute within the WTO and a 25 % tariff on the automotive sector. The impacts are calculated for 297 NUTS-2 European regions combining partial equilibrium and multiregional input-output analysis. The results reveal that the new tariffs would significantly negatively impact the European economy, with unevenly distributed effects across regions. The most affected regions are those heavily specialized in targeted products, such as automotive and aerospace components, and those deeply integrated into European value chains, experiencing substantial indirect impacts. This work underscores the need for targeted policy interventions at the European, national, and regional levels to mitigate these adverse effects. Key policy recommendations include developing contingency plans, promoting sectoral and geographical diversification, and strengthening intra-European trade relations. The findings highlight the strategic importance of the EU’s engagement in global trade negotiations to protect its economic interests and support vulnerable regions. This study wants also to illustrate the potential effects of some of the new tariffs just announced by Trump against the EU to be applied in the first years of his second term.

新冠肺炎疫情和近期地缘政治事件引发新一轮保护主义浪潮。特朗普重返白宫，一场新的贸易战刚刚开始。为了解决贸易政策的地域效应，本研究量化了美国在疫情前对欧盟宣布的两项重大保护主义措施的影响：世贸组织内的波音-空客贸易争端和对汽车行业征收25%的关税。结合局部均衡和多区域投入产出分析，计算了297个nut -2欧洲区域的影响。研究结果显示，新关税将对欧洲经济产生重大负面影响，且影响在不同地区的分布不均匀。受影响最严重的地区是那些高度专业化的目标产品，如汽车和航空航天零部件，以及那些深度融入欧洲价值链的地区，受到了重大的间接影响。这项工作强调需要在欧洲、国家和区域各级采取有针对性的政策干预措施，以减轻这些不利影响。主要政策建议包括制定应急计划，促进部门和地域多样化，以及加强欧洲内部贸易关系。研究结果强调了欧盟参与全球贸易谈判以保护其经济利益和支持脆弱地区的战略重要性。这项研究还想说明特朗普刚刚宣布的一些针对欧盟的新关税的潜在影响，这些关税将在他第二任期的头几年实施。

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引用次数: 0

I want to be Green! The role of social engagement in a circular economy transition 我想成为绿色！社会参与在循环经济转型中的作用

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.004

Livio Ferrante , Federica Scandurra

Over the past decades, the circular economy has garnered significant attention from the international community as a paradigm for economic recovery, poverty alleviation, and emissions reduction, all contributing to the overarching objective of sustainable development. Thus, the promotion of the circular economy can be instrumental for governments in attaining their environmental targets. Circular companies play a central role in the transition to sustainable production and consumption systems; however, the factors that promote their development and growth remain unclear. In our study, we analyze the role of civil society engagement in the development and diffusion of circular companies. We use a dataset covering the Italian provinces from 2010 to 2020 and find that community engagement is strongly associated with the number of circular companies and the share of circular employment, even when accounting for spatial effects. The results suggest that policymakers should leverage bottom-up approaches based on civil society engagement when designing tools and interventions to promote a transition that is economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable.

在过去的几十年里，循环经济作为经济复苏、减贫和减排的典范受到了国际社会的广泛关注，所有这些都有助于实现可持续发展的总体目标。因此，促进循环经济可以帮助政府实现其环境目标。循环公司在向可持续生产和消费系统过渡中发挥核心作用；然而，促进其发展和增长的因素仍不清楚。在我们的研究中，我们分析了公民社会参与在循环公司发展和扩散中的作用。我们使用了覆盖意大利各省2010年至2020年的数据集，发现社区参与与循环公司的数量和循环就业的份额密切相关，即使考虑到空间效应。研究结果表明，决策者在设计工具和干预措施时，应利用基于民间社会参与的自下而上方法，促进经济、环境和社会可持续的转型。

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引用次数: 0

Revitalising EU growth: The power of competitive markets 重振欧盟增长：竞争市场的力量

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.001

Andrea Camilli , Michele Catalano , Claudio Colacurcio , Adriaan Dierx , Fabienne Ilzkovitz

The observed decline in competition in the EU has come at a cost. Simulations of the macroeconomic effects of competition using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models show that the increase in markups observed in the EU since 2000 may have reduced EU GDP by up to 5–7 % compared to the counterfactual. However, without the European Commission’s competition interventions taken over the last ten years, this impact might have been larger by almost one quarter. The paper also suggests that targeted policy measures limiting the market power of high markup companies and tackling the lack of competition in EU lagging countries, each promise to increase GDP by around 4 % after 10 years, counterbalancing the loss due to the increase in EU markups since 2000.

可见，欧盟内部竞争的下降是有代价的。利用动态随机一般均衡模型对竞争的宏观经济效应进行的模拟表明，与反事实相比，欧盟自2000年以来观察到的加价增加可能使欧盟GDP减少了5 - 7%。然而，如果没有欧盟委员会在过去十年中采取的竞争干预措施，这种影响可能会大近四分之一。本文还建议采取有针对性的政策措施，限制高加价公司的市场力量，解决欧盟落后国家缺乏竞争的问题，每项政策都承诺在10年后使GDP增长4%左右，以抵消2000年以来欧盟加价上涨造成的损失。

引用次数: 0

The impact of government-funded renewable energy R&D on its consumption 政府资助的可再生能源研发对其消费的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.001

Dierk Herzer

With the increasing urgency to shift away from fossil fuels, many governments are boosting their funding for renewable energy research and development (R&D). The fundamental premise behind these efforts is that government-funded renewable energy R&D contributes to increased consumption of renewable energy. This paper examines this premise employing panel data from 26 countries between 1974 and 2022. Based on panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests, this study finds robust evidence of a statistically significant positive long-term relationship between government-funded renewable energy R&D and renewable energy consumption. It also identifies unidirectional causality running from the former to the latter.

随着摆脱化石燃料的紧迫性日益增加，许多政府正在增加对可再生能源研究和开发的资助。这些努力背后的基本前提是，政府资助的可再生能源研发有助于增加可再生能源的消费。本文利用1974年至2022年间26个国家的面板数据检验了这一前提。基于面板协整方法和面板因果检验，本研究发现政府资助的可再生能源研发与可再生能源消费之间存在统计学显著的长期正相关关系。它还确定了从前者到后者的单向因果关系。

引用次数: 0

Governance, financial openness, and renewable energy investment in Africa 治理、金融开放和非洲可再生能源投资

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.003

Isaac Appiah-Otoo , Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah , Xudong Chen

Sustainable Development Goal 7 stresses the need for countries to expand renewable energy investment since renewable energy addresses global climate change and energy insecurity. However, credit accessibility remains a major obstacle to realising this goal. Financial openness addresses this obstacle; however, empirical evidence on the impact of financial openness on renewable energy investment remains limited. Therefore, this study probes the association between financial openness and renewable energy investment in 18 African countries from 2004 to 2020, focusing on the role of institutional quality. Using the fixed-effects model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the study finds that financial openness is a significant enabler of renewable energy investment in Africa; however, Africa’s weak institutional environment mitigates the positive impact of financial openness on renewable energy investment. The study estimates that Africa must reach a minimum threshold of institutional quality (2.1) on the −2.5–2.5 scale for financial openness to effectively boost renewable energy investment. The study recommends that policymakers enhance the overall institutional framework in Africa for financial openness to effectively drive renewable energy investment.

可持续发展目标7强调各国需要扩大可再生能源投资，因为可再生能源解决了全球气候变化和能源不安全问题。然而，信贷可及性仍然是实现这一目标的主要障碍。金融开放解决了这一障碍；然而，关于金融开放对可再生能源投资影响的实证证据仍然有限。因此，本研究对2004 - 2020年18个非洲国家金融开放与可再生能源投资的关系进行了研究，重点关注制度质量的作用。采用具有Driscoll-Kraay标准误差的固定效应模型，研究发现，金融开放是非洲可再生能源投资的重要推动因素；然而，非洲薄弱的制度环境削弱了金融开放对可再生能源投资的积极影响。该研究估计，为了有效促进可再生能源投资，非洲必须在金融开放的- 2.5-2.5 范围内达到制度质量的最低门槛（2.1）。该研究建议决策者加强非洲金融开放的总体制度框架，以有效推动可再生能源投资。

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引用次数: 0

Second-leg home advantage no more? The impact of video assistant referee and no away goals rule in elite soccer 第二回合主场优势不复存在？视频助理裁判与无客场进球规则对精英足球比赛的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.003

Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman

Does hosting the return leg in two-legged soccer ties improve a team’s advancement chances, as some contend, or is this perceived second-leg home advantage merely an illusion, as others argue? This question of competitive fairness is increasingly pertinent in today’s high-stakes soccer environment. While a definitive answer remains elusive, recent rule changes in European soccer, namely the introduction of the video assistant referee (VAR) system and the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR), have added new complexities. Analyzing 906 UEFA Champions League ties (2000/01–2023/24) via weighted logistic regression with robustness checks and team strength controls, we find that a modest second-leg home advantage appears only when AGR is in effect without VAR. Introducing VAR alongside AGR seemingly reverses that advantage, albeit lacking robustness, while neither rule alone nor both absent yields an order effect. Notably, VAR offsets the second-leg home advantage solely in AGR’s presence, while AGR creates that advantage solely in VAR’s absence. Although team quality remains the primary driver of success, these findings illustrate how seemingly innocuous regulatory shifts can redefine competitive fairness. Our results thus offer timely insights for policymakers aiming to design fair and strategically engaging formats in elite European soccer, particularly given the dearth of research on the subject.

是像一些人所说的那样，在两回合的足球比赛中，主场进行第二回合比赛会提高球队的晋级机会，还是像其他人所说的那样，这种所谓的第二回合主场优势仅仅是一种错觉？在当今高风险的足球环境中，竞争公平的问题变得越来越重要。虽然一个明确的答案仍然难以捉摸，但最近欧洲足球规则的变化，即视频助理裁判（VAR）系统的引入和客场进球规则（AGR）的废除，增加了新的复杂性。通过对906场欧冠比赛（2000/01-2023/24）的鲁棒性检验和球队实力控制进行加权logistic回归分析，我们发现，只有当AGR在没有VAR的情况下有效时，第二回合主场优势才会出现。虽然缺乏鲁棒性，但引入VAR和AGR似乎会逆转这种优势，而单独规则或不规则都不会产生顺序效应。值得注意的是，VAR仅在AGR存在的情况下抵消了第二回合主场优势，而AGR仅在VAR缺席的情况下创造了这种优势。虽然团队质量仍然是成功的主要驱动力，但这些发现说明了看似无害的监管变化如何重新定义竞争公平。因此，我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了及时的见解，这些政策制定者旨在为欧洲精英足球设计公平和战略参与的形式，特别是考虑到这一主题的研究缺乏。

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引用次数: 0

Monetary policy and labor market dynamics: A gender perspective from developing economies 货币政策和劳动力市场动态：来自发展中经济体的性别视角

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.002

Marjan Petreski , Stefan Tanevski , Alejandro D. Jacobo

This study examines the gendered effects of monetary policy shocks in developing economies. Using a modified Taylor rule incorporating foreign reserve movements, we identify country-specific monetary shocks and apply a local projections estimator to analyze gender-disaggregated labor market responses in 99 developing economies from 2009 to 2021. Results indicate that women experience more negative employment effects than men post-shock, particularly in high-growth environments and under monetary tightening. The findings underscore the need for monetary authorities to consider gender disparities in policy formulation and to coordinate with labor and fiscal policies to mitigate adverse effects on women’s labor market outcomes.

本研究考察了发展中经济体中货币政策冲击的性别影响。我们利用纳入外汇储备变动的修正泰勒规则，确定了具体国家的货币冲击，并应用当地预测估计器，分析了99个发展中经济体2009年至2021年按性别分列的劳动力市场反应。结果表明，女性在冲击后比男性经历了更多的负面就业影响，特别是在高增长环境和货币紧缩的情况下。研究结果强调，货币当局需要在制定政策时考虑性别差异，并与劳工和财政政策协调，以减轻对妇女劳动力市场结果的不利影响。

引用次数: 0

Autocratic governance and decentralization in non-democratic regimes: China’s case study 非民主政体中的专制治理和权力下放：中国案例研究

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.004

Tahir Yousaf , Qurat ul Ain

This research article examines the intricate dynamics of transitioning from a centralized to a decentralized governance system, with a specific focus on the autocratic context, using China as a prominent case study. The central argument centers on the concept that autocratic leaders face a challenging holdup problem when implementing sustainable development policies. In situations where effective mechanisms for establishing credible policy commitments are lacking, centralized decision-making often fails to accurately exhibit local preferences, eroding inducements. Decentralization emerges as a powerful mechanism for ensuring sustainable policy commitment by aligning fiscal policies with individual preferences, potentially enhancing efficiency. Our research sheds light on the motivations for autocratic rulers to opt for decentralization as a means of overcoming the challenges associated with centralized decision-making and fostering improved alignment between sustainable development policies and local residents' preferences and productive efforts.

这篇研究文章考察了从集中式到分散式治理体系过渡的复杂动态，特别关注专制背景，并以中国为突出案例研究。核心论点集中在专制领导人在实施可持续发展政策时面临具有挑战性的拖延问题这一概念上。在缺乏建立可信政策承诺的有效机制的情况下，集中决策往往不能准确地显示地方偏好，从而削弱了诱因。权力下放是一种强有力的机制，通过使财政政策与个人偏好保持一致，从而确保可持续的政策承诺，从而潜在地提高效率。我们的研究揭示了专制统治者选择权力下放的动机，将其作为克服中央集权决策带来的挑战的一种手段，并促进可持续发展政策与当地居民的偏好和生产努力之间的更好的一致性。

引用次数: 0

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