Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

The recent CAP aims at better targeting beneficiaries and being more selective in its objectives. This has drawn attention to how policies interact with resources used by farms in terms of both economic and environmental costs. Conditional Process Models under Structural Equation Modeling framework may offer statistical indications on these complex interactions. The proposed model, called SMIRNE, is applied to an Italian macro-area at severe risk of land pollution (Pianura Padana) caused by livestock sector. Results show a more substantial support from pillar I policies than those provided by pillar II in addressing a relevant response of policies to the economic and environmental costs of the livestock activities with reference to the use of land.

This paper uses a multisector, multiregional general equilibrium input-output model to study the spillovers of global carbon pricing to Germany and Europe. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate the intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE’s sectoral accounts of greenhouse gas emissions to calibrate emission costs. We find that moving from European-only to global carbon prices does neither reduce nor increase the aggregate GDP loss for Germany or Europe as a whole. However, this masks a large degree of heterogeneity across sectors. Sectors that rely on foreign sectors, which are themselves sensitive to the transition, experience large negative spillovers from global carbon pricing. Other sectors, even those with a high emission or trade intensity, tend to benefit from global carbon pricing due to an improvement in international competitiveness.

We use representative data from household surveys in the euro area to describe differences in wages, income, consumption, wealth and liquid assets between households born in their country of residence (“natives”) and those born in other EU and non-EU countries (“immigrants”). The differences in wealth and liquid assets are more substantial than the differences in wages, income and consumption: immigrants earn on average about 30% lower wages than natives and hold roughly 60% less net wealth. For all variables, only a small fraction of differences between natives and immigrants—around 30%—can be explained by differences in demographics (age, gender, marital status, education, occupation, sector of employment). Immigrants are more likely to be liquidity constrained: while we classify 17% of natives as “hand-to-mouth” (they hold liquid assets worth less than two weeks of their income), the corresponding share is 20% for households born in another EU country and 29% for those born outside the EU. Employment rates of immigrants are substantially more sensitive to fluctuations in aggregate employment. We discuss the implications of these findings for economic policies, including monetary, fiscal and pre-distribution policies.

This study, utilising data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey, probes the diverse effects of bribery on the growth of firms in India. The central question we ask is: what motivates certain firms to engage in bribery while others abstain? Employing the endogenous switching regression model, we aim to uncover the intricacies of this heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that bribery can facilitate growth, yet there is substantial heterogeneity in its impact on firms. The impact varies across firm groups: it positively influences those engaging in bribery, while non-bribers would have experienced adverse effects if they had engaged in bribery. Thus, we observe that firms’ decision to dis(engage) in bribery is influenced by the returns they derive from such a decision. This suggests that firms’ decision to (dis)engage in bribery is a conscious, strategic and rational one, driven by choice rather than coercion.

Studying monetary authority response to macroeconomic imbalances using the interest rate as a proxy variable for monetary policy became ineffective after the financial crisis, when central banks exhausted the effective capacity of interest rates by reaching the zero lower bound (ZLB). In an effort to analyse the unconventional response deployed by central banks, we present and estimate a modified reaction function that uses money supply as the operational instrument of monetary policy for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and we verify its utility as an explanatory instrument for the behaviour of the two monetary authorities. By applying our strategy, it is feasible to identify both monetary policy reaction with regard to the economic situation as well as other possible monetary authority concerns regarding governments’ fiscal behaviour and the evolution of asset markets, regardless of the monetary policy applied at any given time.