Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

英文中文

Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India? 印度当地的非农收入是否减缓了气候变化引起的移民强度？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005

Gauri Sreekumar , Sabuj Kumar Mandal , Anviksha Drall

While the impact of climate change on migration is well documented in the literature, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income on climate change induced migration. To fill this gap in the literature, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally on the face of climate change induced crop loss. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. Higher rural out migration may adversely impact the agricultural sector and affect sustainable urbanization, Also, decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.

虽然现有文献充分记录了气候变化对迁移的影响，但对当地非农业收入的调节作用却知之甚少。在此背景下，本文将印度气象局提供的实时天气数据与国际热带作物研究中心收集的印度东部和半干旱热带地区各邦非常丰富的家庭数据相结合，研究农民是否总是诉诸迁移，还是只有在本地多样化失败后才退而求其次选择迁移。利用递归计量经济模型观察发现，农户首先会尝试通过从事当地非农活动来实现收入多样化，而当地非农收入的可获得性进一步缓和了气候变化导致的产量损失对迁移的影响。高水平的移民可能会导致福利损失并影响城市的可持续发展，而移民的决定往往具有挑战性，因为它必须离开社会和社区网络。因此，我们的研究结果提供了宝贵的见解，并讨论了重要的政策建议，以改善当地非农活动的获取途径。

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引用次数: 0

A two-for-one deal: Targeting nominal GDP to create a supply-shock robust inflation target 一举两得：以名义国内生产总值为目标，建立受供应冲击影响的稳健通胀目标

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014

David Beckworth, Patrick J. Horan

A key tenet of modern central banking says that if inflation expectations are anchored then monetary policy should “look through” the inflationary effects of supply shocks that do not permanently affect potential output. However, the inflation surge of 2021–2022 vividly demonstrated that this standard monetary policy prescription is difficult to implement in practice since it requires a real-time knowledge of what shocks are driving changes in inflation while requiring a credible nominal anchor. This paper argues that a workaround solution to these problems is for central banks to stabilize the growth path of nominal GDP. Doing so allows central banks to look through short-term inflation movements caused by temporary supply shocks while still anchoring medium-run inflation. Therefore, central banks that target nominal GDP also are effectively targeting medium-run inflation. This two-for-one targeting deal not only solves the knowledge problem while keeping inflation anchored but can be implemented via standard Taylor-like rules. This paper shows how to operationalize such a framework for the case of the United States.

现代央行的一个关键原则是，如果通胀预期是锚定的，那么货币政策就应该“看穿”供应冲击的通胀效应，这种效应不会对潜在产出产生永久性影响。然而，2021-2022年的通胀飙升生动地表明，这一标准货币政策处方在实践中难以实施，因为它需要实时了解推动通胀变化的冲击，同时需要可靠的名义锚定。本文认为，解决这些问题的一个变通办法是央行稳定名义GDP的增长路径。这样做可以让央行看穿由临时供应冲击引起的短期通胀走势，同时仍能锚定中期通胀。因此，以名义GDP为目标的央行实际上也在瞄准中期通胀。这种二合一的目标交易不仅解决了知识问题，同时保持了通胀稳定，而且可以通过标准的泰勒式规则实施。本文以美国为例，展示了如何实施这一框架。

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引用次数: 0

The economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms and compensation to the oil palm industry 食用油补贴改革对整个经济的影响以及对油棕榈树产业的补偿

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.008

Jing Jing Liu, Norlida Hanim Mohd Salleh, Nor Ghani Md Nor

This study analyses the economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms using two simulations: complete subsidy removal and compensation for the oil palm industry. The study focuses on macroeconomic variables, industrial output, and employment. A Computable General Equilibrium model is used for analysis. The study found that complete subsidy removal leads to negative impacts on the macroeconomy, causing a slight decrease in economic growth. It also results in negative impacts on industrial output and employment. On the other hand, reallocating the revenue to the oil palm industry investment could mitigate these adverse effects, and further leads to an increase in economic growth. The reallocation improves the output of the oil palm industry and reduces its labour demand. The impacts on other industries' output and employment vary. Removing cooking oil subsidy can be a viable option because of its marginal impacts. It's also recommended to compensate the oil palm industry, especially independent smallholders.

本研究分析了食用油补贴改革的整体经济影响，采用两种模拟：完全取消补贴和对油棕行业的补偿。这项研究的重点是宏观经济变量、工业产出和就业。采用可计算一般均衡模型进行分析。研究发现，完全取消补贴会对宏观经济产生负面影响，导致经济增长略有下降。它还会对工业产出和就业产生负面影响。另一方面，将收入重新分配给油棕产业投资可以减轻这些不利影响，并进一步促进经济增长。重新分配提高了油棕产业的产量，减少了对劳动力的需求。对其他行业产出和就业的影响各不相同。取消食用油补贴是一个可行的选择，因为它的影响很小。它还建议补偿油棕产业，特别是独立的小农。

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引用次数: 0

European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates 欧洲增值税征收面临压力：最好使用少数降低的税率

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007

Alžběta Dytrychová, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová

The article analyses the effectiveness of the VAT system in European countries. Higher values of the effective VAT rate reduce the Policy gap but increase the Compliance gap. A higher effective VAT rate consisting of a relatively low standard rate and few reduced rates improves overall efficiency by reducing the Policy Gap more than increasing the Compliance Gap. Our recommendation is to use as few reduced rates as possible. As for the effect of the standard rate itself, we have found that it does not increase tax evasion in the new Member States, unlike the number of VAT rates.

文章分析了欧洲国家增值税制度的有效性。增值税有效税率值越高，政策差距就越小，但合规差距就越大。由相对较低的标准税率和较少的减税税率组成的较高有效增值税税率通过减少政策差距而不是增加合规差距来提高整体效率。我们的建议是使用尽可能少的减税率。至于标准税率本身的影响，我们发现它与增值税税率的数量不同，不会增加新成员国的逃税行为。

引用次数: 0

Health and growth in China: Greater investment in both soft- and hard-ware are needed 中国的健康与增长：需要加大软硬件投资

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.006

Fu Shuyong, Chen Shuyu, Zhai Jinlong

The purpose is to study the relationship between health investment and economic growth in China. The research design involves empirical research using semi parametric regression models and instrumental variable methods. The results indicate that on the one hand, Chinese health investment can promote economic growth, and its promoting effect on economic growth is non-linear; On the other hand, healthcare investment in the form of human capital is more conducive to promoting regional economic growth than healthcare investment in the form of material capital. The conclusion is that it is necessary to increase health investment in the form of human capital such as the number of health personnel in the eastern region, as well as in the form of material capital such as the number of beds in the central and western regions, in order to better promote regional economic growth.

目的是研究中国卫生投资与经济增长的关系。研究设计采用半参数回归模型和工具变量法进行实证研究。结果表明：一方面，中国卫生投资能够促进经济增长，且其对经济增长的促进作用是非线性的；另一方面，人力资本形式的医疗卫生投资比物质资本形式的医疗卫生投资更有利于促进区域经济增长。结论认为，要更好地促进区域经济增长，既要加大东部地区卫生人员数量等人力资本形式的卫生投入，也要加大中西部地区床位数量等物质资本形式的卫生投入。

引用次数: 0

Labour supply responses to a negative income tax in Spain 西班牙劳动力供应对负所得税的反应

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.007

Amadeo Fuenmayor, Rafael Granell, Teresa Savall

One of the major drawbacks of a Basic Income proposal is that it could induce people to reduce their labour supply. The main aim of this paper is to put forward a financially viable alternative to the current Spanish system of social protection, based on a Negative Income Tax proposal and introducing several changes in the social protection system. Using EUROMOD, the labour behavioural responses to these new conditions are studied in detail, using a structural model of labour supply.

The main result is that a reform as the one described in this work will not make people to abandon the labour market, as usually argued for Basic Income proposals. Under this scheme, on the contrary, we can observe a slightly increase in labour supply. This finding has strong implications for policy. Modifying the tax-benefit system, bringing it closer to a Basic Income scheme, will produce significant improvements in inequality and poverty without a significant change in labour supply.

基本收入提案的一个主要缺点是，它可能会诱使人们减少劳动力供应。本文的主要目的是在负所得税提案的基础上，对西班牙现行的社会保护制度提出一个财政上可行的替代方案，并对社会保护制度进行若干改革。通过使用 EUROMOD，利用劳动力供给结构模型，详细研究了劳动力对这些新条件的行为反应。

引用次数: 0

The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson? 卢旺达在 COVID-19 大流行期间采取的全经济复苏措施：有多大借鉴意义？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004

Emerta Aragie, Xinshen Diao, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) immediately introduced strict public health measures to contain the spread of infection. The economic consequences of these measures were negative and often large in magnitude, necessitating the rapid introduction of economic relief and recovery measures to reinvigorate economic growth and safeguard affected households. Rwanda stands out among other LMICs both for its effective public health policy response and its adaptive economic policy response to COVID-19. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Rwanda, this paper assesses the economywide and welfare impacts of these policy measures and contextualizes results within the overall policy response to COVID-19. Modeling results generated at an early stage of Rwanda’s pandemic experience indicated that relief and recovery measures introduced in 2020 could mitigate COVID-19′s recessionary effects by about 0.8 % points of total GDP, help to recover about 115,000 jobs and, through cash transfers, significantly reduce income losses among poorer households, with total benefits from the measures exceeded their cost by a ratio of 2.2. These results demonstrate the widely replicable value of economywide modeling when used in a timely manner and when positioned within a policymaking process.

为应对 COVID-19 大流行，许多中低收入国家（LMICs）的政府立即采取了严格的公共卫生措施来遏制感染的蔓延。这些措施对经济造成了负面影响，而且影响往往很大，因此有必要迅速采取经济救济和恢复措施，以重振经济增长和保护受影响的家庭。卢旺达因其有效的公共卫生政策应对措施和对 COVID-19 的适应性经济政策应对措施而在其他低收入和中等收入国家中脱颖而出。本文利用卢旺达的动态可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 模型，评估了这些政策措施对整个经济和福利的影响，并将结果与应对 COVID-19 的整体政策相结合。在卢旺达疫情早期阶段得出的建模结果表明，2020 年引入的救济和恢复措施可减轻 COVID-19 的衰退影响，使国内生产总值（GDP）总量减少约 0.8 个百分点，帮助恢复约 115,000 个工作岗位，并通过现金转移显著减少贫困家庭的收入损失，这些措施的总收益超过其成本的比率为 2.2。这些结果表明，在决策过程中及时使用全经济建模具有广泛的推广价值。

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引用次数: 0

Fiscal stance role for ECB monetary policy 财政立场对欧洲央行货币政策的作用

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.008

Linas Jurkšas , Francisco Gomes Pereira

The objective of this paper is to ascertain the presence of a crucial connection between euro area fiscal stance and ECB monetary policy. To achieve this, we employ the thick modelling approach for the Generalised method of moments to estimate ECB reaction functions with and without a projected fiscal deficit indicator from 2001 until 2022. The results reveal that the actions of the ECB have exhibited desirable effects of stabilising monetary policy, while the projected fiscal deficit was usually not statistically significant in explaining the ECB’s monetary policy stance. However, the sign of fiscal deficit coefficient was positive, implying a counter-cyclical nature of monetary policy with respect to the fiscal stance. This effect has become more evident since 2012, suggesting that the ECB might be taking into account euro area fiscal deficits as providing some indications for potential inflationary risks. Overall, these findings speak against the fiscal dominance or repression regime being prevalent in the euro area.

本文旨在确定欧元区财政政策与欧洲央行货币政策之间是否存在关键联系。为此，我们采用了广义矩法的厚模型方法来估计欧洲央行从 2001 年到 2022 年有无预计财政赤字指标的反应函数。结果显示，欧洲央行的行动表现出了稳定货币政策的理想效果，而预计财政赤字在解释欧洲央行的货币政策立场方面通常没有统计意义。然而，财政赤字系数的符号为正，这意味着货币政策对财政政策具有反周期性。这种效应自 2012 年以来变得更加明显，表明欧洲央行可能考虑到欧元区的财政赤字为潜在的通胀风险提供了一些迹象。总体而言，这些研究结果与欧元区普遍存在的财政主导或财政压制制度不符。

引用次数: 0

Harmonizing economic and environmental costs in the CAP to improve efficiency and effectiveness of policies 统一补充性追加计划的经济和环境成本，提高政策的效率和效果

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.011

The recent CAP aims at better targeting beneficiaries and being more selective in its objectives. This has drawn attention to how policies interact with resources used by farms in terms of both economic and environmental costs. Conditional Process Models under Structural Equation Modeling framework may offer statistical indications on these complex interactions. The proposed model, called SMIRNE, is applied to an Italian macro-area at severe risk of land pollution (Pianura Padana) caused by livestock sector. Results show a more substantial support from pillar I policies than those provided by pillar II in addressing a relevant response of policies to the economic and environmental costs of the livestock activities with reference to the use of land.

最近的补充性农业政策旨在更好地确定受益者，并在目标上更具选择性。这引起了人们对政策如何在经济和环境成本方面与农场使用的资源相互作用的关注。结构方程建模框架下的条件过程模型可以为这些复杂的相互作用提供统计指标。所提出的模型名为 SMIRNE，应用于意大利一个因畜牧业而面临严重土地污染风险的宏观地区（Pianura Padana）。结果表明，与第二支柱相比，第一支柱政策在解决政策对畜牧活动在土地使用方面的经济和环境成本的相关响应方面提供了更大的支持。

引用次数: 0

How do carbon prices spill over along global supply chains? The impact on Europe and Germany 碳价格如何沿全球供应链蔓延？对欧洲和德国的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.03.005

This paper uses a multisector, multiregional general equilibrium input-output model to study the spillovers of global carbon pricing to Germany and Europe. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate the intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE’s sectoral accounts of greenhouse gas emissions to calibrate emission costs. We find that moving from European-only to global carbon prices does neither reduce nor increase the aggregate GDP loss for Germany or Europe as a whole. However, this masks a large degree of heterogeneity across sectors. Sectors that rely on foreign sectors, which are themselves sensitive to the transition, experience large negative spillovers from global carbon pricing. Other sectors, even those with a high emission or trade intensity, tend to benefit from global carbon pricing due to an improvement in international competitiveness.

本文采用多部门、多地区一般均衡投入产出模型，研究全球碳定价对德国和欧洲的溢出效应。它使用世界投入产出数据库（WIOD）来校准七个地区和每个地区 56 个经济部门之间的部门间贸易，并使用 EXIOBASE 的温室气体排放部门账户来校准排放成本。我们发现，从纯欧洲碳价格转向全球碳价格既不会减少也不会增加德国或整个欧洲的 GDP 总量损失。然而，这在很大程度上掩盖了各部门之间的异质性。依赖于外国部门的部门（这些部门本身对转型很敏感）会受到全球碳定价的巨大负面溢出效应的影响。其他部门，即使是排放或贸易强度较高的部门，由于国际竞争力的提高，往往会从全球碳定价中受益。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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Journal of Policy Modeling

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