Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

英文中文

International trade and economic growth in the era of geoeconomic fragmentation 地缘经济碎片化时代的国际贸易与经济增长

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.017

Dominick Salvatore , Janhavi Shankar Tripathi

This paper studies the relationship between international trade and economic growth during the era of geoeconomic fragmentation (2017–2023), using a simultaneous equations model estimated through the full information maximum likelihood method. The study covers 132 countries (30 advanced and 102 developing) and also analyzes trade-growth dynamics separately for large and small economies. The findings confirm that trade remains a crucial factor for economic growth, but it acts more as a facilitator than a direct driver. In advanced countries, exports positively contribute to capital formation and growth, and industrialization contributes significantly to exports, while capital inflows have a negative effect on fixed capital formation. For developing countries, industrialization significantly boosts exports and in turn economic growth. The study highlights that the rise in protectionism and trade disruptions during the geoeconomic fragmentation period may weaken the positive impact of trade on growth. The results are validated through dynamic simulations, underscoring the need for strategic industrialization and trade partnerships to sustain growth in a fragmented global economy.

本文采用全信息极大似然法估计的联立方程模型，研究了地缘经济碎片化时代（2017-2023）国际贸易与经济增长的关系。这项研究涵盖了132个国家（30个发达国家和102个发展中国家），并分别分析了大型和小型经济体的贸易增长动态。研究结果证实，贸易仍然是经济增长的一个关键因素，但它更多的是一种促进因素，而不是直接驱动因素。在发达国家，出口对资本形成和增长有正向贡献，工业化对出口有显著贡献，而资本流入对固定资本形成有负向影响。对发展中国家来说，工业化极大地促进了出口，进而带动了经济增长。研究强调，地缘经济碎片化时期保护主义抬头和贸易中断可能削弱贸易对增长的积极影响。通过动态模拟验证了结果，强调了在分散的全球经济中保持增长的战略工业化和贸易伙伴关系的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

What happens in the global economy if the United States reduces its share of imports in GDP 如果美国减少其进口占GDP的比重，全球经济将会发生什么

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.018

Fred Campano , Dominick Salvatore , Alberto Costantiello

引用次数: 0

Foresee the unseen: Evaluating the impact of artificial intelligence on international trade 预见未知：评估人工智能对国际贸易的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.016

Adam Jakubik , Lorenzo Rotunno , Alisha Saini

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape countries’ comparative advantage and transform international trade patterns. In this paper, we model the effect of AI technologies on bilateral trade flows by introducing an AI shock to the production process and analyzing how this shock influences trade dynamics. We then empirically estimate the relationship between AI exposure and bilateral exports in recent years. Our findings reveal that AI has a significant positive correlation with trade: a one standard deviation increase in AI exposure is associated with a 31 percent rise in exports, on average. Additionally, we explore how this effect varies across trading partners, highlighting distinct patterns between advanced, emerging, and low-income economies.

人工智能（AI）具有重塑国家比较优势和改变国际贸易模式的潜力。在本文中，我们通过在生产过程中引入人工智能冲击并分析这种冲击如何影响贸易动态来模拟人工智能技术对双边贸易流动的影响。然后，我们对近年来人工智能暴露与双边出口之间的关系进行了实证估计。我们的研究结果表明，人工智能与贸易存在显著的正相关关系：人工智能敞口每增加一个标准差，出口平均增长31%。此外，我们还探讨了这种影响在不同贸易伙伴之间的差异，强调了发达经济体、新兴经济体和低收入经济体之间的不同模式。

引用次数: 0

Debt supercycle versus secular stagnation 债务超级周期vs长期停滞

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.008

Kenneth Rogoff

引用次数: 0

US trade conflict: Potential economic implications for the US and the global economy 美国贸易冲突：对美国和全球经济的潜在影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.013

Robert B. Koopman , Marinos Tsigas

This paper evaluates the economic consequences of increasing US trade unilateralism through a CGE modeling approach focusing on three counterfactual scenarios: universal tariff retaliation, partial US-China de-escalation, and trade barriers combined with immigration restrictions. Using a GTAP framework with enhanced labor market detail, we find that full retaliation reduces US real GDP by 1.32 % and income by 2.77 %, with particularly severe impacts on export-oriented sectors. While selected bilateral accommodation provides modest relief, the combination of trade restrictions and labor deportation policies amplifies losses, reducing GDP by 3.83 % and income by 12.08 %. The results highlight the substantial costs of retreating from cooperative trade frameworks and the interconnections between trade and immigration policies. These findings suggest that preserving rules-based cooperation, enhancing multilateral institutions, and developing integrated labor-trade adjustment mechanisms are vital for maintaining economic resilience in an evolving global order. Keywords: trade policy, tariffs, CGE modeling, labor markets, economic integration

本文通过CGE模型方法评估了美国贸易单边主义加剧的经济后果，重点关注三种反事实情景：普遍的关税报复、美中关系的部分降级以及贸易壁垒与移民限制相结合。使用GTAP框架，增强劳动力市场细节，我们发现全面报复使美国实际GDP减少1.32%，收入减少2.77%，对出口导向型部门的影响尤为严重。虽然有选择的双边妥协提供了适度的缓解，但贸易限制和劳工驱逐政策的结合放大了损失，使GDP减少了3.83%，收入减少了12.08%。研究结果凸显了退出合作贸易框架的巨大成本，以及贸易与移民政策之间的相互联系。这些发现表明，在不断变化的全球秩序中，维护基于规则的合作、加强多边机构和发展综合劳动贸易调整机制对于保持经济弹性至关重要。关键词：贸易政策，关税，CGE模型，劳动力市场，经济一体化

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引用次数: 0

What drives trade policy reform? 贸易政策改革的动力是什么？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.014

Julia Estefania-Flores , Davide Furceri , Jonathan D. Ostry , Federico Steinberg

This paper examines the macroeconomic and political determinants of non-tariff barriers to international trade based on a new index of such restrictions with broad country and time coverage. We employ a structured empirical approach that integrates multiple methodologies to identify which factors are the most robust correlates of trade reform (defined as meaningful changes in non-tariff barriers). We find that structural factors, both macroeconomic (especially inflation and export concentration) and political (especially democracy, corruption, political polarization and populism) emerge as robust correlates of changes in trade policy. Among these, political and institutional variables explain the largest share of nontariff barrier policy variation.

本文根据一种新的具有广泛国家和时间范围的非关税壁垒指数，研究了国际贸易非关税壁垒的宏观经济和政治决定因素。我们采用了一种结构化的实证方法，整合了多种方法，以确定哪些因素与贸易改革（定义为非关税壁垒的有意义的变化）最密切相关。我们发现结构性因素，宏观经济因素（尤其是通货膨胀和出口集中度）和政治因素（尤其是民主、腐败、政治两极分化和民粹主义）都是贸易政策变化的重要相关因素。其中，政治和制度变量解释了非关税壁垒政策变化的最大份额。

引用次数: 0

Industrial policy and the new protectionism 产业政策与新保护主义

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.007

Joseph E. Stiglitz

引用次数: 0

Increased childcare to promote mothers’ employment in selected EU countries 在选定的欧盟国家，增加儿童保育以促进母亲就业

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.005

Edlira Narazani , Ana Agúndez García , Michael Christl , Francesco Figari

This paper provides evidence of the maternal labour supply effects of increased childcare availability in a set of EU Member States based on the behavioural microsimulation model EUROLAB, that uses a labour market equilibrium model to encompass the demand side. Our findings indicate that achieving higher childcare participation rates would result in an overall increase in the labour supply of mothers with children below 3, with variations across countries. Furthermore, the labour demand side moderates slightly the final employment effect, but employment is still expected to rise substantially vis a vis the baseline situation. In countries like Hungary and Poland, where formal childcare and female labour participation are low, the expected impact on employment is likely to be higher. Conversely, in countries like Portugal the changes in employment are more modest. These findings indicate that universal, one-size-fits-all targets may not be efficient in the EU, given significant variations across countries in terms of labour market participation and childcare systems. Thus, tailored childcare policies that account for country-specific contexts within the EU are recommended.

本文基于行为微观模拟模型EUROLAB（使用劳动力市场均衡模型来涵盖需求侧），提供了一组欧盟成员国中增加托儿服务可获得性的孕产妇劳动力供给效应的证据。我们的研究结果表明，实现更高的儿童保育参与率将导致3岁以下儿童的母亲的劳动力供应总体增加，这在各国之间存在差异。此外，劳动力需求方面略微缓和了最终的就业效应，但预计就业仍将较基线情况大幅上升。在匈牙利和波兰等国家，正规儿童保育和女性劳动参与率较低，对就业的预期影响可能会更高。相反，在像葡萄牙这样的国家，就业的变化则较为温和。这些发现表明，考虑到各国在劳动力市场参与和儿童保育制度方面的巨大差异，普遍的、一刀切的目标在欧盟可能并不有效。因此，建议根据欧盟各国的具体情况制定量身定制的儿童保育政策。

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引用次数: 0

Asymmetric impact of migrants’ remittances on real effective exchange rate in Morocco 摩洛哥移民汇款对实际有效汇率的不对称影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.006

Oussama Zennati , Zineb Bennis Nechba , Zakaria Chtouki

Earlier studies analysing the impact of remittances affect the exchange rate were based on a symmetric approach, assuming that this impact is symmetrically. This paper examines the asymmetric impact of remittances on real effective exchange rate (REER) in Morocco. Our results show that, in both the long and short term, remittances have a negative impact on REER, which reject "dutch disease" hypothesis in the Moroccan context. The results further demonstrate a long-term asymmetric effect of remittances on REER. In light of these findings, it is recommended that Moroccan authorities should implement policies to pool and reallocate Moroccan migrants' savings towards productive investment, thereby reinforcing financial inclusion and providing tailored financial services to families left behind in receipt of these remittances.

早期分析汇款对汇率影响的研究是基于对称方法，假设这种影响是对称的。本文考察了汇款对摩洛哥实际有效汇率（REER）的不对称影响。我们的研究结果表明，在长期和短期内，汇款对REER都有负面影响，这在摩洛哥的情况下否定了“荷兰病”假说。结果进一步证明了汇款对REER的长期不对称影响。根据这些调查结果，建议摩洛哥当局实施政策，将摩洛哥移民的储蓄集中并重新分配给生产性投资，从而加强金融包容性，并为收到这些汇款的留守家庭提供量身定制的金融服务。

引用次数: 0

An artificial neural network experiment on the prediction of the unemployment rate 基于人工神经网络的失业率预测实验

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.004

Cosimo Magazzino , Marco Mele , Mihai Mutascu

This paper proposes an advanced Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methodology with a Genetic test in order to estimate unemployment forecasting in 23 high-tech and most-developed countries over the period 1998–2016. The main findings reveal that the methodology adopted ensures an excellent accuracy of unemployment forecasting for the selected countries, allowing the analysis of the contributions of each input to unemployment estimation as well. A significant role is exerted by GDP, labor productivity, population growth, and Artificial Intelligence innovation, while inflation assumes only a secondary role. A minor contribution is also observed in Foreign Direct Investments and government size. Therefore, economic growth based on innovation in Artificial Intelligence with explicit effects on productivity, under adequate population growth, seems to drive the unemployment rate.

本文提出了一种先进的人工神经网络（ANN）方法和基因测试，以估计1998-2016年期间23个高科技和最发达国家的失业预测。主要调查结果显示，所采用的方法确保了所选国家的失业预测具有极高的准确性，从而也可以分析每种投入对失业估计的贡献。GDP、劳动生产率、人口增长和人工智能创新发挥着重要作用，通货膨胀仅居次要地位。外国直接投资和政府规模也有较小的贡献。因此，在人口充分增长的情况下，基于对生产率有明确影响的人工智能创新的经济增长似乎推动了失业率。

引用次数: 0

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