Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Do debt relief and fiscal rules improve public debt sustainability? The experience of sub-Sahara African countries 债务减免和财政规则能否改善公共债务的可持续性？撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经验

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.007

Attahir B. Abubakar , W. David McCausland , Ioannis Theodossiou

The sub-Sahara African (SSA) region accounts for 33 of the 39 Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) with many of these countries facing challenges in public debt management. This paper examines issues that are key to improving the debt situation in the region. Specifically, the study investigates two key questions namely whether the adoption of fiscal rules and debt relief improve public debt sustainability. What factors reduce the public debt of SSA countries? Interestingly, the findings reveal that while debt relief improves debt sustainability, the imposition of fiscal rules threatens the debt sustainability of the region. Further, higher economic growth and increasing government balance are instrumental to reducing public debt. These findings have far-reaching policy implications for public debt management in developing countries.

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Addressing climatic uncertainty through fleet optimization for robust winter road maintenance policy design

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.001

Nadeem Akbar Najar , Arnab Jana , D. Parthasarathy

Effective winter road maintenance (WRM) is essential in regions with heavy snowfall, but climate change has increased the unpredictability and severity of winter weather, complicating WRM planning and policy. This study uses the Taguchi method to optimize WRM strategies, focusing on fleet configurations and maintenance practices. By integrating advanced technologies and data-driven decision-making, the research aims to provide policymakers with evidence-based recommendations to enhance WRM robustness and efficiency. The findings offer actionable insights for improving road safety, minimizing economic disruptions, and optimizing resource allocation under climatic uncertainty, ultimately supporting more effective and sustainable WRM operations.

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Identifying the ‘deep roots’ of economic freedom with implications for policy and economic reform

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.002

James W. Saunoris , James E. Payne , Russell S. Sobel

Because of the importance of economic freedom for a country’s prosperity and growth, subsequent studies now try to uncover which factors explain the cross-country differences in economic freedom. Based upon Lawson, Murphy, and Powell’s (2020) recent literature review we provide the first empirical examination of the relative importance of all 18 of the key “deep root” factors they identify across the published literature. We employ a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach that is ideally suited for model identification and provides a statistical means to rank the importance of these deep root factors. Our results suggest that (in order of importance) latitude, exitability as measured by a country’s shape and coastal access, genetic distance, religion, and French legal origins are the most important of the deep root determinants of economic freedom. Policy implications of our findings are also discussed.

由于经济自由对一个国家的繁荣和增长非常重要，随后的研究试图揭示哪些因素可以解释经济自由的跨国差异。根据劳森、墨菲和鲍威尔（2020 年）最近的文献综述，我们首次对他们在已发表文献中确定的全部 18 个关键 "深层次 "因素的相对重要性进行了实证研究。我们采用了贝叶斯模型平均法（BMA），这种方法非常适合模型识别，并提供了一种统计方法来对这些深层次因素的重要性进行排序。我们的研究结果表明（按重要性排序），纬度、以国家形状和沿海通道衡量的可退出性、遗传距离、宗教和法国法律渊源是经济自由最重要的深层决定因素。本文还讨论了我们的研究结果对政策的影响。

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Ending poverty and accelerating growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system 南非通过扩大社会补助金制度消除贫困和加快增长

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003

Ismael Fofana , Ramos E. Mabugu , Alhassane Camara , Babatunde Abidoye

South Africa has one of the most extensive social assistance systems among developing countries; however, the proportion of the population below the national poverty lines remains relatively high. Thus, we develop a micro-macro framework to assess the economic growth implications of expanding South Africa’s social grant system under alternative conditions. We find that conditional poverty-alleviation social transfers foster growth while unconditional redistribution towards lower-income earners can hinder economic growth. From policy perspectives, we show that the transfer of purchasing power to extremely poor beneficiaries and their economic participation are required for poverty-alleviation social transfers to have positive economic outcomes.

南非拥有发展中国家中最广泛的社会援助制度之一；然而，低于国家贫困线的人口比例仍然相对较高。因此，我们开发了一个微观宏观框架来评估在其他条件下扩大南非社会补助制度对经济增长的影响。我们发现，有条件的扶贫社会转移有利于经济增长，而无条件的向低收入者再分配则会阻碍经济增长。从政策角度来看，我们表明购买力转移到极端贫困受益人及其经济参与是扶贫社会转移产生积极经济成果的必要条件。

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Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability 财政政策和公共债务：政府投资对促进可持续性最为有效

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002

Giovanna Ciaffi , Matteo Deleidi , Lorenzo Di Domenico

This paper aims to quantify the effects of government expenditure and its components, i.e. government consumption and investment, on output and public debt sustainability. The Local Projections approach is applied to a dataset of 14 OECD countries considered for the 1981–2017 period. Fiscal policy shocks have been identified using the Blanchard and Perotti strategy and the narrative approach based on fiscal consolidation episodes. Multipliers of total government spending are above the unit and government investment multipliers are higher than consumption ones. Although all fiscal policy shocks reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, government investment is the most effective tool for promoting public debt sustainability.

本文旨在量化政府支出及其组成部分（即政府消费和投资）对产出和公共债务可持续性的影响。本地预测方法应用于1981-2017年期间14个经合组织国家的数据集。财政政策冲击已通过布兰查德和佩罗蒂策略以及基于财政巩固事件的叙事方法确定。政府总支出乘数高于单位，政府投资乘数高于消费乘数。尽管所有财政政策冲击都会降低公共债务与gdp的比率，但政府投资是促进公共债务可持续性的最有效工具。

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Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa 种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足：南非的政策设计与推广

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009

Isaac Koomson , Clifford Afoakwah , Martinson Ankrah Twumasi

We examine the effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight in post-apartheid South Africa, which has a strong history of systemic racial segregation. Using five waves of longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS), and employing instrumental variable and propensity score matching methods, we find that racial diversity significantly reduces child stunting and underweight. This result is consistent across alternative measures of racial diversity, child stunting and underweight, and is also robust to different endogeneity-correction methods. The negative effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight is more pronounced among children under 5 years of age. Further analyses highlight increased employment opportunities, food expenditure per capita and financial inclusion as important channels through which racial diversity decreases stunting and underweight. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.

在种族隔离历史悠久的种族隔离后南非，我们研究了种族多样性对儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的影响。利用国家收入动态调查（NIDS）的五波纵向数据，并采用工具变量和倾向得分匹配方法，我们发现种族多样性显著降低了儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的程度。这一结果与其他衡量种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的方法是一致的，而且在采用不同的内生性校正方法时也是稳健的。种族多样性对儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的负面影响在 5 岁以下儿童中更为明显。进一步的分析强调，增加就业机会、人均食品支出和金融包容性是种族多样性减少发育迟缓和体重不足的重要渠道。我们讨论了这些发现的政策影响。

引用次数: 0

Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes 加纳与国际货币基金组织：政策转变、经济救助和宏观经济成果

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006

Suale Karimu

Ghana has a long history of engagement with the IMF. Successive governments of Ghana have sought economic bailouts from the IMF due to worsening domestic macroeconomic stability. This paper examines Ghana’s historical engagement with the IMF and the associated macroeconomic outcomes, and offers lessons for economic restructuring and growth beyond the bailouts. The paper explores the common patterns of the key macroeconomic variables and possible latent causal effects. The results reveal intermittent and short-term effects of the IMF programs. The bailouts often have a short-term impact on macroeconomic stability and growth, but the effects are unsustainable in the long term, especially after the IMF program ends.

加纳与国际货币基金组织的合作由来已久。由于国内宏观经济稳定性不断恶化，加纳历届政府都曾寻求国际货币基金组织的经济救助。本文探讨了加纳与国际货币基金组织合作的历史以及相关的宏观经济结果，并为救助之后的经济结构调整和增长提供了借鉴。本文探讨了关键宏观经济变量的共同模式以及可能的潜在因果效应。结果显示，国际货币基金组织的项目具有间歇性和短期效应。救助往往会对宏观经济稳定和增长产生短期影响，但从长期来看，尤其是在国际货币基金组织计划结束后，这种影响是不可持续的。

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Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India? 印度当地的非农收入是否减缓了气候变化引起的移民强度？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005

Gauri Sreekumar , Sabuj Kumar Mandal , Anviksha Drall

While the impact of climate change on migration is well documented in the literature, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income on climate change induced migration. To fill this gap in the literature, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally on the face of climate change induced crop loss. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. Higher rural out migration may adversely impact the agricultural sector and affect sustainable urbanization, Also, decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.

虽然现有文献充分记录了气候变化对迁移的影响，但对当地非农业收入的调节作用却知之甚少。在此背景下，本文将印度气象局提供的实时天气数据与国际热带作物研究中心收集的印度东部和半干旱热带地区各邦非常丰富的家庭数据相结合，研究农民是否总是诉诸迁移，还是只有在本地多样化失败后才退而求其次选择迁移。利用递归计量经济模型观察发现，农户首先会尝试通过从事当地非农活动来实现收入多样化，而当地非农收入的可获得性进一步缓和了气候变化导致的产量损失对迁移的影响。高水平的移民可能会导致福利损失并影响城市的可持续发展，而移民的决定往往具有挑战性，因为它必须离开社会和社区网络。因此，我们的研究结果提供了宝贵的见解，并讨论了重要的政策建议，以改善当地非农活动的获取途径。

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引用次数: 0

A two-for-one deal: Targeting nominal GDP to create a supply-shock robust inflation target 一举两得：以名义国内生产总值为目标，建立受供应冲击影响的稳健通胀目标

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014

David Beckworth, Patrick J. Horan

A key tenet of modern central banking says that if inflation expectations are anchored then monetary policy should “look through” the inflationary effects of supply shocks that do not permanently affect potential output. However, the inflation surge of 2021–2022 vividly demonstrated that this standard monetary policy prescription is difficult to implement in practice since it requires a real-time knowledge of what shocks are driving changes in inflation while requiring a credible nominal anchor. This paper argues that a workaround solution to these problems is for central banks to stabilize the growth path of nominal GDP. Doing so allows central banks to look through short-term inflation movements caused by temporary supply shocks while still anchoring medium-run inflation. Therefore, central banks that target nominal GDP also are effectively targeting medium-run inflation. This two-for-one targeting deal not only solves the knowledge problem while keeping inflation anchored but can be implemented via standard Taylor-like rules. This paper shows how to operationalize such a framework for the case of the United States.

现代央行的一个关键原则是，如果通胀预期是锚定的，那么货币政策就应该“看穿”供应冲击的通胀效应，这种效应不会对潜在产出产生永久性影响。然而，2021-2022年的通胀飙升生动地表明，这一标准货币政策处方在实践中难以实施，因为它需要实时了解推动通胀变化的冲击，同时需要可靠的名义锚定。本文认为，解决这些问题的一个变通办法是央行稳定名义GDP的增长路径。这样做可以让央行看穿由临时供应冲击引起的短期通胀走势，同时仍能锚定中期通胀。因此，以名义GDP为目标的央行实际上也在瞄准中期通胀。这种二合一的目标交易不仅解决了知识问题，同时保持了通胀稳定，而且可以通过标准的泰勒式规则实施。本文以美国为例，展示了如何实施这一框架。

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引用次数: 0

European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates 欧洲增值税征收面临压力：最好使用少数降低的税率

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007

Alžběta Dytrychová, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová

The article analyses the effectiveness of the VAT system in European countries. Higher values of the effective VAT rate reduce the Policy gap but increase the Compliance gap. A higher effective VAT rate consisting of a relatively low standard rate and few reduced rates improves overall efficiency by reducing the Policy Gap more than increasing the Compliance Gap. Our recommendation is to use as few reduced rates as possible. As for the effect of the standard rate itself, we have found that it does not increase tax evasion in the new Member States, unlike the number of VAT rates.

文章分析了欧洲国家增值税制度的有效性。增值税有效税率值越高，政策差距就越小，但合规差距就越大。由相对较低的标准税率和较少的减税税率组成的较高有效增值税税率通过减少政策差距而不是增加合规差距来提高整体效率。我们的建议是使用尽可能少的减税率。至于标准税率本身的影响，我们发现它与增值税税率的数量不同，不会增加新成员国的逃税行为。

引用次数: 0

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