Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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I want to be Green! The role of social engagement in a circular economy transition 我想成为绿色！社会参与在循环经济转型中的作用

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.004

Livio Ferrante , Federica Scandurra

Over the past decades, the circular economy has garnered significant attention from the international community as a paradigm for economic recovery, poverty alleviation, and emissions reduction, all contributing to the overarching objective of sustainable development. Thus, the promotion of the circular economy can be instrumental for governments in attaining their environmental targets. Circular companies play a central role in the transition to sustainable production and consumption systems; however, the factors that promote their development and growth remain unclear. In our study, we analyze the role of civil society engagement in the development and diffusion of circular companies. We use a dataset covering the Italian provinces from 2010 to 2020 and find that community engagement is strongly associated with the number of circular companies and the share of circular employment, even when accounting for spatial effects. The results suggest that policymakers should leverage bottom-up approaches based on civil society engagement when designing tools and interventions to promote a transition that is economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable.

在过去的几十年里，循环经济作为经济复苏、减贫和减排的典范受到了国际社会的广泛关注，所有这些都有助于实现可持续发展的总体目标。因此，促进循环经济可以帮助政府实现其环境目标。循环公司在向可持续生产和消费系统过渡中发挥核心作用；然而，促进其发展和增长的因素仍不清楚。在我们的研究中，我们分析了公民社会参与在循环公司发展和扩散中的作用。我们使用了覆盖意大利各省2010年至2020年的数据集，发现社区参与与循环公司的数量和循环就业的份额密切相关，即使考虑到空间效应。研究结果表明，决策者在设计工具和干预措施时，应利用基于民间社会参与的自下而上方法，促进经济、环境和社会可持续的转型。

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引用次数: 0

Revitalising EU growth: The power of competitive markets 重振欧盟增长：竞争市场的力量

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.001

Andrea Camilli , Michele Catalano , Claudio Colacurcio , Adriaan Dierx , Fabienne Ilzkovitz

The observed decline in competition in the EU has come at a cost. Simulations of the macroeconomic effects of competition using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models show that the increase in markups observed in the EU since 2000 may have reduced EU GDP by up to 5–7 % compared to the counterfactual. However, without the European Commission’s competition interventions taken over the last ten years, this impact might have been larger by almost one quarter. The paper also suggests that targeted policy measures limiting the market power of high markup companies and tackling the lack of competition in EU lagging countries, each promise to increase GDP by around 4 % after 10 years, counterbalancing the loss due to the increase in EU markups since 2000.

可见，欧盟内部竞争的下降是有代价的。利用动态随机一般均衡模型对竞争的宏观经济效应进行的模拟表明，与反事实相比，欧盟自2000年以来观察到的加价增加可能使欧盟GDP减少了5 - 7%。然而，如果没有欧盟委员会在过去十年中采取的竞争干预措施，这种影响可能会大近四分之一。本文还建议采取有针对性的政策措施，限制高加价公司的市场力量，解决欧盟落后国家缺乏竞争的问题，每项政策都承诺在10年后使GDP增长4%左右，以抵消2000年以来欧盟加价上涨造成的损失。

引用次数: 0

The impact of government-funded renewable energy R&D on its consumption 政府资助的可再生能源研发对其消费的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.001

Dierk Herzer

With the increasing urgency to shift away from fossil fuels, many governments are boosting their funding for renewable energy research and development (R&D). The fundamental premise behind these efforts is that government-funded renewable energy R&D contributes to increased consumption of renewable energy. This paper examines this premise employing panel data from 26 countries between 1974 and 2022. Based on panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests, this study finds robust evidence of a statistically significant positive long-term relationship between government-funded renewable energy R&D and renewable energy consumption. It also identifies unidirectional causality running from the former to the latter.

随着摆脱化石燃料的紧迫性日益增加，许多政府正在增加对可再生能源研究和开发的资助。这些努力背后的基本前提是，政府资助的可再生能源研发有助于增加可再生能源的消费。本文利用1974年至2022年间26个国家的面板数据检验了这一前提。基于面板协整方法和面板因果检验，本研究发现政府资助的可再生能源研发与可再生能源消费之间存在统计学显著的长期正相关关系。它还确定了从前者到后者的单向因果关系。

引用次数: 0

Governance, financial openness, and renewable energy investment in Africa 治理、金融开放和非洲可再生能源投资

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.003

Isaac Appiah-Otoo , Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah , Xudong Chen

Sustainable Development Goal 7 stresses the need for countries to expand renewable energy investment since renewable energy addresses global climate change and energy insecurity. However, credit accessibility remains a major obstacle to realising this goal. Financial openness addresses this obstacle; however, empirical evidence on the impact of financial openness on renewable energy investment remains limited. Therefore, this study probes the association between financial openness and renewable energy investment in 18 African countries from 2004 to 2020, focusing on the role of institutional quality. Using the fixed-effects model with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the study finds that financial openness is a significant enabler of renewable energy investment in Africa; however, Africa’s weak institutional environment mitigates the positive impact of financial openness on renewable energy investment. The study estimates that Africa must reach a minimum threshold of institutional quality (2.1) on the −2.5–2.5 scale for financial openness to effectively boost renewable energy investment. The study recommends that policymakers enhance the overall institutional framework in Africa for financial openness to effectively drive renewable energy investment.

可持续发展目标7强调各国需要扩大可再生能源投资，因为可再生能源解决了全球气候变化和能源不安全问题。然而，信贷可及性仍然是实现这一目标的主要障碍。金融开放解决了这一障碍；然而，关于金融开放对可再生能源投资影响的实证证据仍然有限。因此，本研究对2004 - 2020年18个非洲国家金融开放与可再生能源投资的关系进行了研究，重点关注制度质量的作用。采用具有Driscoll-Kraay标准误差的固定效应模型，研究发现，金融开放是非洲可再生能源投资的重要推动因素；然而，非洲薄弱的制度环境削弱了金融开放对可再生能源投资的积极影响。该研究估计，为了有效促进可再生能源投资，非洲必须在金融开放的- 2.5-2.5 范围内达到制度质量的最低门槛（2.1）。该研究建议决策者加强非洲金融开放的总体制度框架，以有效推动可再生能源投资。

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引用次数: 0

Second-leg home advantage no more? The impact of video assistant referee and no away goals rule in elite soccer 第二回合主场优势不复存在？视频助理裁判与无客场进球规则对精英足球比赛的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.003

Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman

Does hosting the return leg in two-legged soccer ties improve a team’s advancement chances, as some contend, or is this perceived second-leg home advantage merely an illusion, as others argue? This question of competitive fairness is increasingly pertinent in today’s high-stakes soccer environment. While a definitive answer remains elusive, recent rule changes in European soccer, namely the introduction of the video assistant referee (VAR) system and the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR), have added new complexities. Analyzing 906 UEFA Champions League ties (2000/01–2023/24) via weighted logistic regression with robustness checks and team strength controls, we find that a modest second-leg home advantage appears only when AGR is in effect without VAR. Introducing VAR alongside AGR seemingly reverses that advantage, albeit lacking robustness, while neither rule alone nor both absent yields an order effect. Notably, VAR offsets the second-leg home advantage solely in AGR’s presence, while AGR creates that advantage solely in VAR’s absence. Although team quality remains the primary driver of success, these findings illustrate how seemingly innocuous regulatory shifts can redefine competitive fairness. Our results thus offer timely insights for policymakers aiming to design fair and strategically engaging formats in elite European soccer, particularly given the dearth of research on the subject.

是像一些人所说的那样，在两回合的足球比赛中，主场进行第二回合比赛会提高球队的晋级机会，还是像其他人所说的那样，这种所谓的第二回合主场优势仅仅是一种错觉？在当今高风险的足球环境中，竞争公平的问题变得越来越重要。虽然一个明确的答案仍然难以捉摸，但最近欧洲足球规则的变化，即视频助理裁判（VAR）系统的引入和客场进球规则（AGR）的废除，增加了新的复杂性。通过对906场欧冠比赛（2000/01-2023/24）的鲁棒性检验和球队实力控制进行加权logistic回归分析，我们发现，只有当AGR在没有VAR的情况下有效时，第二回合主场优势才会出现。虽然缺乏鲁棒性，但引入VAR和AGR似乎会逆转这种优势，而单独规则或不规则都不会产生顺序效应。值得注意的是，VAR仅在AGR存在的情况下抵消了第二回合主场优势，而AGR仅在VAR缺席的情况下创造了这种优势。虽然团队质量仍然是成功的主要驱动力，但这些发现说明了看似无害的监管变化如何重新定义竞争公平。因此，我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了及时的见解，这些政策制定者旨在为欧洲精英足球设计公平和战略参与的形式，特别是考虑到这一主题的研究缺乏。

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引用次数: 0

Monetary policy and labor market dynamics: A gender perspective from developing economies 货币政策和劳动力市场动态：来自发展中经济体的性别视角

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.002

Marjan Petreski , Stefan Tanevski , Alejandro D. Jacobo

This study examines the gendered effects of monetary policy shocks in developing economies. Using a modified Taylor rule incorporating foreign reserve movements, we identify country-specific monetary shocks and apply a local projections estimator to analyze gender-disaggregated labor market responses in 99 developing economies from 2009 to 2021. Results indicate that women experience more negative employment effects than men post-shock, particularly in high-growth environments and under monetary tightening. The findings underscore the need for monetary authorities to consider gender disparities in policy formulation and to coordinate with labor and fiscal policies to mitigate adverse effects on women’s labor market outcomes.

本研究考察了发展中经济体中货币政策冲击的性别影响。我们利用纳入外汇储备变动的修正泰勒规则，确定了具体国家的货币冲击，并应用当地预测估计器，分析了99个发展中经济体2009年至2021年按性别分列的劳动力市场反应。结果表明，女性在冲击后比男性经历了更多的负面就业影响，特别是在高增长环境和货币紧缩的情况下。研究结果强调，货币当局需要在制定政策时考虑性别差异，并与劳工和财政政策协调，以减轻对妇女劳动力市场结果的不利影响。

引用次数: 0

Autocratic governance and decentralization in non-democratic regimes: China’s case study 非民主政体中的专制治理和权力下放：中国案例研究

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.004

Tahir Yousaf , Qurat ul Ain

This research article examines the intricate dynamics of transitioning from a centralized to a decentralized governance system, with a specific focus on the autocratic context, using China as a prominent case study. The central argument centers on the concept that autocratic leaders face a challenging holdup problem when implementing sustainable development policies. In situations where effective mechanisms for establishing credible policy commitments are lacking, centralized decision-making often fails to accurately exhibit local preferences, eroding inducements. Decentralization emerges as a powerful mechanism for ensuring sustainable policy commitment by aligning fiscal policies with individual preferences, potentially enhancing efficiency. Our research sheds light on the motivations for autocratic rulers to opt for decentralization as a means of overcoming the challenges associated with centralized decision-making and fostering improved alignment between sustainable development policies and local residents' preferences and productive efforts.

这篇研究文章考察了从集中式到分散式治理体系过渡的复杂动态，特别关注专制背景，并以中国为突出案例研究。核心论点集中在专制领导人在实施可持续发展政策时面临具有挑战性的拖延问题这一概念上。在缺乏建立可信政策承诺的有效机制的情况下，集中决策往往不能准确地显示地方偏好，从而削弱了诱因。权力下放是一种强有力的机制，通过使财政政策与个人偏好保持一致，从而确保可持续的政策承诺，从而潜在地提高效率。我们的研究揭示了专制统治者选择权力下放的动机，将其作为克服中央集权决策带来的挑战的一种手段，并促进可持续发展政策与当地居民的偏好和生产努力之间的更好的一致性。

引用次数: 0

Inflation and policy coordination in high-inflation environments 高通胀环境下的通胀与政策协调

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.002

Idris A. Adediran , Olajide O. Oyadeyi , Tirimisiyu F. Oloko

We observe a disquieting problem: the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy instruments, including inflation targeting, to deliver price stability in high-inflation environments. We explore two exciting contributions using an intuitive panel data econometric modelling across M1 2010 and M12 2023. First, we highlight the key drivers of inflation in the countries as mostly non-monetary factors–geopolitical risk, fiscal spending, and inflation expectation–to explain why price stability eludes the monetary authorities. Second, we estimate monetary and fiscal policy rules and find that while price stability remains the overarching goal of monetary policy, the fiscal authorities appear unconcerned despite contributing to the problem. We propose a policy coordination strategy that integrates inflation targeting into both monetary and fiscal policy rules, as well as supply-side initiatives.

我们观察到一个令人不安的问题：在高通胀环境下，包括通胀目标制在内的传统货币政策工具在实现价格稳定方面效果不显著。我们使用直观的面板数据计量经济模型在M1 2010和M12 2023中探索了两个令人兴奋的贡献。首先，我们强调了这些国家通胀的主要驱动因素主要是非货币因素——地缘政治风险、财政支出和通胀预期——以解释为什么货币当局无法实现价格稳定。其次，我们估计了货币和财政政策规则，发现虽然价格稳定仍然是货币政策的首要目标，但财政当局似乎并不关心，尽管助长了这个问题。我们建议将通胀目标制纳入货币和财政政策规则以及供给侧举措的政策协调策略。

引用次数: 0

Will temporary super depreciation allowances for green and digital investments have knock-on effects? 绿色和数字投资的临时超折旧津贴会产生连锁反应吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.03.003

Michael Funke , Raphael Terasa

As an incentive towards twin digital and green investment in the corporate landscape, the German Federal Government has suggested a targeted temporary super depreciation allowance to support much-needed green and digital transitions. Using a calibrated multi-sector DSGE model, we find that the temporary super deduction could trigger an uplift of 10 percentage points for crucial green and digital capital spending, turbo-charging decarbonization and digitization ambitions. However, with the temporary corporate tax policy measure set to end after two years, there is a risk that the higher investment expenditures are levelling out afterwards.

为了激励企业在数字化和绿色领域的双重投资，德国联邦政府提出了一项有针对性的临时超级折旧津贴，以支持急需的绿色和数字化转型。使用校准的多部门DSGE模型，我们发现临时超级扣除可能会引发关键的绿色和数字资本支出，涡轮增压脱碳和数字化目标提升10个百分点。然而，由于临时公司税政策措施将在两年后结束，投资支出增加的风险可能会在两年后趋于平稳。

引用次数: 0

Alcohol consumption response to pandemic induced income shocks in India 酒精消费对流行病引起的印度收入冲击的反应

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.001

Nidhi Kaicker

The study assesses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on household consumption of alcohol in India, considering both income shocks and supply-side factors. based on a nationally representative household survey conducted by CMIE. Using a 2SLS panel regression model and employing an approach akin to difference-in-differences technique, our study finds that the pandemic induced lockdowns resulted in a sharp increase in the share of alcohol in total expenditure across rural and urban India, and for all income levels. Alcohol consumption varies by education level, by caste, religion, and severity of income shocks. The increased alcohol consumption during the pandemic, and more so among the households that faced a severe income shock, despite the supply restrictions, suggest the stronger impact of stress-response-dampening hypothesis and self-medication hypothesis compared to the income effect. Despite state-imposed supply restrictions, including temporary alcohol shop closures and subsequent reopening with higher taxes, the study raises concerns about a disproportionate rise in alcohol consumption among the most economically impacted. This underscores the need for balanced policy responses, considering both economic stressors and public health imperatives, and emphasizes targeted interventions to mitigate the consequences of increased alcohol consumption during crises.

该研究评估了2019冠状病毒病大流行对印度家庭酒精消费的影响，同时考虑了收入冲击和供给侧因素。基于CMIE在全国进行的具有代表性的住户调查。使用2SLS面板回归模型并采用类似于差异中差异技术的方法，我们的研究发现，大流行导致的封锁导致酒精在印度农村和城市以及所有收入水平的总支出中的份额急剧增加。饮酒量因教育程度、种姓、宗教和收入冲击的严重程度而异。大流行期间酒精消费量的增加，以及尽管有供应限制，但面临严重收入冲击的家庭的酒精消费量增加，表明与收入效应相比，压力反应抑制假说和自我药物治疗假说的影响更大。尽管国家实施了供应限制，包括暂时关闭酒类商店，随后重新开业并征收更高的税，但该研究仍引起了人们对受经济影响最大的酒类消费不成比例增长的担忧。这突出表明需要采取平衡的政策应对措施，同时考虑到经济压力因素和公共卫生需求，并强调有针对性的干预措施，以减轻危机期间酒精消费增加的后果。

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