Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献_第2页

Building a hydrogen economy: Does France have the industrial capacity for a low-carbon transition? 建设氢经济：法国是否具备向低碳转型的工业能力？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.11.001

Raphael Guionie, Lionel Lemiale, Rodica Loisel

The energy transition towards low-carbon hydrogen (H₂) in France is expected to require deep industrial planning to develop electrolysis and H₂ production infrastructure. This study employs an input–output method to simulate a new sector of electrolysis-produced hydrogen (e-H₂) that supplies two-hydrogen intensive sectors, petroleum refining and ammonia. We construct two input–output models, a demand-driven model for e-H₂ sector development (the investment phase) and a mixed model for e-H₂ production (the operation phase). The results demonstrate that the e-H₂ sector depends on industries such as machinery, electrical equipment, construction and metal products manufacturing in the investment phase, with strong backward linkages to the power sector in the exploitation phase. The results reveal that the energy shock (350 kt of e-H₂ per year) generates significant growth (€1.3 Bn of gross domestic product) and jobs (3600), but strongly depends on industries’ capability to expand and recruit. Recommendations advise public policy development to address the need to reinforce key industries to support e-H₂ production due to inter-industry dependence and the need for more attractive skilled and technician jobs in sectors that are already experiencing recruitment tensions. At much higher e-H₂ shocks in the steel sector (700 kt e-H₂) and other industries (415 kt e-H₂), even greater amounts of domestic resources would be required. Therefore, de-carbonising the entire H₂ sector require ambitious policy planning to support industrial empowerment, research programmes and labour training so that H₂ becomes an enabling technology of the energy transition.

法国向低碳氢（H2）的能源转型预计需要深入的工业规划，以发展电解和氢气生产基础设施。本研究采用投入产出法模拟了一个新的电解产氢部门（e-H2），该部门为石油炼制和氨这两个氢密集型部门提供氢。我们构建了两个投入产出模型，一个是用于e-H2行业发展的需求驱动模型（投资阶段），另一个是用于e-H2生产的混合模型（运营阶段）。结果表明，在投资阶段，e-H2部门依赖于机械、电气设备、建筑和金属制品制造等行业，在开发阶段，与电力部门有很强的反向联系。结果显示，能源冲击（每年350 kt e-H2）产生了显著的增长（13亿欧元的国内生产总值）和就业机会（3600个），但在很大程度上取决于行业的扩张和招聘能力。建议建议制定公共政策，以解决由于行业间依赖而加强关键行业以支持e-H2生产的需求，以及在已经经历招聘紧张的行业中对更具吸引力的技术和技术工作的需求。如果钢铁行业（700 kt e-H2）和其他行业（415 kt e-H2）的e-H2冲击要高得多，则需要更多的国内资源。因此，整个氢气行业的脱碳需要雄心勃勃的政策规划，以支持工业赋权、研究计划和劳动力培训，使氢气成为能源转型的使能技术。

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引用次数: 0

Does stigmatization worsen the living standard of people who suffer from it in Africa? 污名化是否使非洲遭受污名化的人的生活水平恶化？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.10.002

Mathieu Juliot Mpabe Bodjongo

This paper aims to examine the influence of different forms of stigmatization on the depreciation of the standard of living of people who practice them in Africa. Methodologically, we use descriptive statistical techniques and "basic ordered probit regression with endogenous covariates", exploiting the Afrobarometer database (2023). The results show that stigmatization significantly reduces the well-being of those who practice it. Whatever form it takes (religion, ethnicity, homosexuality, foreign labor, and politics), stigmatization increases multidimensional poverty among those who practice it. Futhermore, the co-occurrence of stigmatizing acts exacerbates multidimensional poverty, monetary poverty, and food insecurity. It also creates difficulties in accessing water, healthcare, and cooking fuel for those who engage in stigmatizing behaviors.

本文旨在研究不同形式的污名化对非洲实践污名化的人生活水平下降的影响。在方法上，我们使用描述性统计技术和“基本有序概率回归与内生协变量”，利用非洲晴雨表数据库（2023）。研究结果表明，污名化显著降低了污名化者的幸福感。无论采取何种形式（宗教、种族、同性恋、外国劳工和政治），污名化都会加剧践行者的多维贫困。此外，污名化行为的同时发生加剧了多维贫困、货币贫困和粮食不安全。它还使那些从事污名化行为的人难以获得水、医疗保健和烹饪燃料。

引用次数: 0

Can regulatory enforced disclosure policy enhance earnings quality of banks? 监管强制披露政策能否提高银行盈余质量？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.07.001

Soumik Bhusan , Manish Bansal , G. Naresh

Indian banking system was exposed to a regulatory overhaul during 2015–2016 through many policy reforms. These reforms came in tandem with the asset quality review (AQR) instituted by the banking regulator. One of such reforms was an enforcement of mandatory disclosures which aimed at improving earnings quality. The banking regulator framed these disclosures in terms of divergence in asset qualities between the regulator and the banks. The goal was to limit the opportunistic behavior of banks, reduce their ability to suppress unfavorable information, and improve certainty about the banking sector – which is opaque in general. Therefore, our study examines the efficacy of this policy – whether the mandatory disclosure policy reduced information asymmetry making the banks better disciplined, thereby alleviating to an extent the moral hazard problem. Using fixed effects panel regression and generalised methods of moments (GMM), we find divergence disclosure to have a positive effect on earnings quality. We witnessed banks to reduce the discretionary portion of the loan loss provisioning after the enforcement of divergence disclosure. Thus, the policy-making process to improve transparency and surfacing ‘good’ versus the ‘bad’ banks was effective and derived the intended results. Furthermore, our study recommends institutionalizing a metric driven policy approach to steer regulatory outcomes. For example, we propose the policy convergence initiated in 2022, to adopt the expected credit loss standard for credit impairment from the current incurred loss to be looked at with the lens of earnings quality. A mandatory disclosure with divergence in provision between the two credit loss models could be a possible solution to ensure realization of the intended policy outcome.

2015年至2016年期间，印度银行体系通过多项政策改革面临监管改革。这些改革与银行监管机构制定的资产质量审查（AQR）同步进行。其中一项改革是实施旨在提高盈利质量的强制性披露。银行业监管机构根据监管机构和银行之间的资产质量差异来界定这些披露。其目标是限制银行的投机行为，降低它们压制不利信息的能力，并提高对银行业的确定性——银行业总体上是不透明的。因此，我们的研究考察了这一政策的有效性——强制性披露政策是否减少了信息不对称，使银行更加自律，从而在一定程度上缓解了道德风险问题。使用固定效应面板回归和广义矩量法（GMM），我们发现差异披露对盈余质量有积极影响。我们看到银行在执行差异披露后减少了贷款损失准备的可自由支配部分。因此，提高透明度和区分“好”银行与“坏”银行的决策过程是有效的，并取得了预期的结果。此外，我们的研究建议将指标驱动的政策方法制度化，以引导监管结果。例如，我们建议在2022年开始的政策趋同，采用预期信用损失标准，从当前发生的损失来看信用减值，并从盈余质量的角度来看待。强制披露两种信贷损失模型之间的准备差异可能是确保实现预期政策结果的可能解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Oil dependency, political instability and the stock market: A perspective from the Middle East and Africa 石油依赖、政治不稳定和股市：来自中东和非洲的视角

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.009

Mohamed Abdelaziz Eissa , Hisham Al Refai , Georgios Chortareas

We examine the time-varying effects of oil price shocks and geopolitical risk on the stock markets of six Middle Eastern and African countries—namely, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Turkey. Our analysis, which uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression and monthly data from 2002 to 2023, demonstrates the crucial role played by geopolitical risk and oil price shocks in shaping the stock returns of these countries. Their impact in the period under study is found to vary across countries according to their different economic structures, political conditions, and degrees of reliance on oil. Some countries, such as Egypt and Israel, are more affected by geopolitical events, whereas others, such as Saudi Arabia, are heavily influenced by oil price fluctuations. The diverse responses of the stock markets to these factors emphasizes the need to consider both geopolitical risk and oil price shocks when evaluating stock market performance. Our findings on the heterogeneous effects of oil prices and geopolitical risk across countries and regions can inform country-specific policy responses and investment strategies that are tailored to countries’ unique economic structures and political environments.

我们研究了石油价格冲击和地缘政治风险对六个中东和非洲国家股票市场的时变影响，即埃及、以色列、沙特阿拉伯、南非、突尼斯和土耳其。我们的分析使用时变参数向量自回归和2002年至2023年的月度数据，证明了地缘政治风险和油价冲击在塑造这些国家的股票回报方面发挥的关键作用。研究发现，石油在研究期间的影响因各国经济结构、政治条件和对石油依赖程度的不同而有所不同。一些国家，如埃及和以色列，受地缘政治事件的影响更大，而另一些国家，如沙特阿拉伯，则受到石油价格波动的严重影响。股市对这些因素的不同反应强调了在评估股市表现时需要考虑地缘政治风险和油价冲击。我们关于油价和地缘政治风险在不同国家和地区的异质性影响的研究结果，可以为针对各国独特经济结构和政治环境的具体政策反应和投资策略提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

From policy to practice: What drives climate orientation in development finance flows? 从政策到实践：是什么推动了发展融资的气候导向？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.008

Hardik Gupta , Raveendra Saradhi Vadlamudy

As climate considerations become integral to the global development agenda, it is essential to examine how they are incorporated into cross-border development finance architecture. This study investigates the determinants of climatic orientation in Official Development Finance (ODF) using a granular dataset of 108,580 financial flows to Southeast Asia from 2015 to 2022. Integrating transaction, recipient and donor-level attributes, a multilevel logistic regression model has been utilised to account for unobserved heterogeneity resulting from the cross-classified structure of the data. Our findings suggest that larger ODA flows structured as loans are more likely to be climate-oriented. Recipient climate vulnerability and emissions intensity are positively associated with climate orientation, while institutional capacity exhibits mixed effects. Donor characteristics such as emissions levels, fiscal space, and democracy scores show positive associations, while governance quality exhibits a negative relationship, a finding driven mainly by non-traditional donors with lower governance scores but higher climate finance shares. Robustness checks confirm the stability of the results across alternative specifications, subsamples, and model structures. The analysis contributes to the literature by examining emerging policy discourse in light of empirical evidence and theoretical expectations. The study reveals that the inclusion of climatic considerations in developmental goals is shaped by a complex array of factors, with emerging donors playing an increasingly central role in reshaping the landscape. The analysis advocates for the adoption of an integrated approach to climate and development objectives to enable more effective utilisation of available resources.

随着气候因素成为全球发展议程不可或缺的一部分，研究如何将其纳入跨境发展融资架构至关重要。本研究利用2015年至2022年流向东南亚的108,580笔资金流的颗粒数据集，调查了官方发展融资（ODF）气候取向的决定因素。整合交易，接受者和捐赠者级别属性，多级逻辑回归模型已被用于解释由数据交叉分类结构导致的未观察到的异质性。我们的研究结果表明，以贷款形式构成的较大的官方发展援助流量更有可能以气候为导向。接受国气候脆弱性和排放强度与气候导向呈正相关，而机构能力表现出混合效应。捐赠方特征（如排放水平、财政空间和民主得分）呈现正相关，而治理质量呈现负相关，这一发现主要是由治理得分较低但气候融资份额较高的非传统捐赠方推动的。鲁棒性检查确认了跨可选规范、子样本和模型结构的结果的稳定性。该分析通过根据经验证据和理论期望检查新兴政策话语，为文献做出了贡献。这项研究表明，将气候因素纳入发展目标受到一系列复杂因素的影响，新兴捐助国在重塑气候格局方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。该分析主张对气候和发展目标采取综合办法，以便更有效地利用现有资源。

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引用次数: 0

Corruption and economic growth: Greasing the wheels or sanding the gears? Evidence from Italian regions 腐败与经济增长：润滑齿轮还是磨砂齿轮？来自意大利地区的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.007

Salvatore Capasso , Lodovico Santoro

This paper examines how corruption shapes regional growth in Italy and conditions the growth effect of public spending. Using disaggregated judicial data for twenty regions (1991–2015) that distinguish two contractual forms of corruption—active (coercive payments imposed by officials) and passive (collusive bribes initiated by firms)—we estimate dynamic panel models to identify direct and spending-interaction effects. Three results emerge. First, active corruption can display a short-run “grease” association with growth in highly bureaucratic settings, but the effect is non-linear and quickly dissipates at higher levels. Second, active corruption sands the wheels by weakening the growth-promoting role of public expenditure, whereas the passive form shows no comparable interaction. Third, this erosion is strongest in weaker institutional environments, particularly in Southern regions. Policy should therefore shield procurement and frontline services through transparency, risk-based integrity checks, and digital traceability, and target oversight and enforcement where vulnerabilities are greatest. Aligning anti-corruption with regional development priorities is essential to preserve spending multipliers and sustain more balanced growth.

本文考察了腐败如何影响意大利的区域增长，以及公共支出对增长的影响。利用20个地区（1991-2015）的分类司法数据，区分了两种合同形式的腐败——主动（官员强制支付）和被动（公司发起的串通贿赂）——我们估计了动态面板模型，以识别直接和支出互动效应。三个结果出现了。首先，在高度官僚主义的环境中，主动腐败可以显示出与增长的短期“油脂”联系，但这种影响是非线性的，并且在更高的级别上迅速消散。其次，主动腐败通过削弱公共支出的促增长作用来磨砺车轮，而被动腐败则没有表现出可比的相互作用。第三，这种侵蚀在制度环境较弱的地区最为严重，尤其是在南部地区。因此，政策应通过透明度、基于风险的完整性检查和数字可追溯性来保护采购和一线服务，并针对漏洞最大的地方进行监督和执法。将反腐败与区域发展重点结合起来，对于保持支出乘数和维持更平衡的增长至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Minibonds and investment: Do they promote intangible assets? 迷你债券和投资：它们促进了无形资产吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.006

Beniamino Pisicoli , Francesco Marchionne , Gabriele Beccari

This paper examines whether the 2012 introduction of minibonds, a new market-based financial instrument specifically designed for small and medium enterprises, has promoted intangible investments in Italy. We address selection bias by applying a propensity score matching (PSM) and test our hypotheses using a panel Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. Our results show that minibond-issuing firms invest in intangibles, a component difficult to finance via bank credit, more than other firms and more than they invest in tangibles. We also find that (i) this effect is persistent over time, (ii) minibond-issuing firms attract additional resources from other intermediaries after issuing minibonds, and (iii) alternative financing, such as minibonds, can reduce financial constraints. Results are corroborated by a large number of robustness exercises, including changes in matching criteria, in the matching algorithms, or when resorting to different estimators.

本文考察了2012年推出的迷你债券（一种专门为中小企业设计的新型市场化金融工具）是否促进了意大利的无形投资。我们通过应用倾向得分匹配（PSM）来解决选择偏差，并使用面板差异中的差异（DID）方法来检验我们的假设。我们的研究结果表明，微型债券发行公司在无形资产上的投资多于其他公司，而无形资产是难以通过银行信贷融资的组成部分。我们还发现(i)这种影响是持续的，（ii）发行迷你债券的公司在发行迷你债券后从其他中介机构吸引额外的资源，以及（iii）替代融资，如迷你债券，可以减少财务约束。结果通过大量的鲁棒性练习得到证实，包括匹配标准的变化，匹配算法的变化，或者诉诸于不同的估计器。

引用次数: 0

A framework for disrupting extremist recruitment in a developing country: Mapping pathways and prioritizing interventions 在发展中国家破坏极端分子招募的框架：绘制途径和优先干预措施

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.005

Yousaf Ali , Amin Ullah Khan

Rising extremism in the region proves to be a critical challenge for developing countries such as Pakistan. In such a scenario, extremism is deeply rooted in society, and to counter it, the country requires an accurate understanding of its driving factors, along with effective counter-extremism strategies. To achieve this, the research employs a novel integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model i.e., DEMATEL-FUCOM-VIKOR framework to identify the root causes and prioritize strategic solutions. The study evaluates eight driving factors and reveals that economic despair, political agendas, and cultural discrimination are collectively responsible for the extremist influence in the country. Similarly, after evaluating countermeasures, family counseling and youth engagement programs emerge as the optimal strategies, depicting superior risk reduction and complementary actions such as countering kinship radicalization and socioeconomic triggers, along with addressing the governance voids and ideological recruitment. The study also recommends directing approximately 70 % of the government resources to scale counseling units and the establishment of youth hubs in the high-risk areas. It will also help to integrate vocational training with youth programs to counter excessive poverty. This novel application provides policymakers with an actionable blueprint for employing culturally congruent, resource-effective counter-extremism initiatives.

该地区日益上升的极端主义对巴基斯坦等发展中国家来说是一个严峻的挑战。在这种情况下，极端主义在社会中根深蒂固，为了对抗它，国家需要准确了解其驱动因素，以及有效的反极端主义战略。为了实现这一目标，该研究采用了一种新的集成多标准决策（MCDM）模型，即DEMATEL-FUCOM-VIKOR框架，以确定根本原因并优先考虑战略解决方案。该研究评估了八个驱动因素，并揭示了经济绝望、政治议程和文化歧视是造成该国极端主义影响的共同原因。同样，在评估对策后，家庭咨询和青年参与计划成为最佳策略，描绘了卓越的风险降低和补充行动，如对抗亲属激进化和社会经济诱因，以及解决治理空白和意识形态招募问题。该研究还建议将大约70%的政府资源用于扩大咨询单位，并在高风险地区建立青年中心。它还将有助于将职业培训与青年项目结合起来，以对抗过度贫困。这个新颖的应用程序为政策制定者提供了一个可行的蓝图，以采用文化上一致的、资源有效的反极端主义举措。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic change will hit public debt sustainability in European Union countries 人口结构变化将打击欧盟国家的公共债务可持续性

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.004

Zsolt Darvas , Lennard Welslau , Jeromin Zettelmeyer

By consecutively applying the EU’s debt sustainability analysis through 2052, we find that EU countries must improve their primary balances during the initial four-to-seven-year adjustment period starting in 2025 and then maintain these balances at broadly stable levels. However, in most countries, fiscal adjustments in the non-ageing portion of the budget must continue and reach historically high levels. Risk factors may necessitate even greater adjustments, while policies could partially alleviate fiscal pressures. The implementation of EU country-specific recommendations related to labour markets, pension systems, and productivity has been limited, and these recommendations do not adequately address immigration and fertility-enhancing policies.

通过连续应用欧盟的债务可持续性分析到2052年，我们发现欧盟国家必须在2025年开始的最初4到7年的调整期间改善其基本平衡，然后将这些平衡保持在大致稳定的水平。然而，在大多数国家，预算中非老龄化部分的财政调整必须继续下去，并达到历史最高水平。风险因素可能需要更大的调整，而政策可能部分缓解财政压力。欧盟有关劳动力市场、养老金制度和生产率的具体国家建议的实施有限，这些建议没有充分解决移民和提高生育率的政策。

引用次数: 0

The role of data trading platforms (DTPs) in digital technology innovation: Mechanisms and evidence from China 数据交易平台在数字技术创新中的作用：机制和来自中国的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-09-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.003

Yun Yang , Yushuang Li , Xueping Liang

Data constitute the cornerstone of the digital technology era and the key to driving the paradigm shift of digital technology innovation and improving innovation efficiency. However, this cannot be achieved without an efficient and secure data trading system. To enhance the role of data in digital technology innovation, some prefecture-level cities in China have established data trading platforms(DTPs). Based on data from Chinese listed companies for the period 2010–2023, this paper examined the influence of DTPs on digital technology innovation of companies by applying a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) model. We find that the number of digital technology innovations of companies increased by 3.1 % in prefecture-level cities with DTPs compared with those without DTPs, validating the extraordinary role of data trading in enhancing the dynamic capabilities of the digital technology innovations of companies. Heterogeneity results reveal that the facilitating function of DTPs in digital technology innovation of companies is strengthened with increased levels of digital infrastructure and digital ecosystems in cities and enhanced with increased levels of data utilization and degrees of intellectual property protection of companies. Mediating mechanism results indicate that facilitating same-industry technology spillover, enhancing cross-industry technology spillover, and boosting innovation breakthrough capability are the main mechanisms through which DTPs affect the digital technology innovation of companies. This study provides insights for policymakers on how to improve digital infrastructure, optimize digital ecosystems, protect data property rights, and support companies in strengthening their data capabilities to effectively enhance the role of DTPs in digital technology innovation.

数据是数字技术时代的基石，是推动数字技术创新范式转变、提高创新效率的关键。然而，如果没有一个有效和安全的数据交易系统，这是不可能实现的。为了增强数据在数字技术创新中的作用，中国一些地级市建立了数据交易平台（dtp）。本文以2010-2023年中国上市公司数据为基础，运用时变差分中差（DID）模型研究了dtp对企业数字技术创新的影响。我们发现，与没有dtp的地级市相比，有dtp的地级市企业的数字技术创新数量增长了3.1%，验证了数据交易在增强企业数字技术创新动态能力方面的非凡作用。异质性结果表明，城市数字化平台对企业数字技术创新的促进作用随着城市数字基础设施和数字生态系统水平的提高而增强，随着企业数据利用水平和知识产权保护程度的提高而增强。中介机制研究结果表明，促进同行业技术溢出、增强跨行业技术溢出和提升创新突破能力是企业数字化技术创新的主要影响机制。本研究为政策制定者提供了关于如何改善数字基础设施、优化数字生态系统、保护数据产权和支持企业加强数据能力的见解，以有效增强dtp在数字技术创新中的作用。

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引用次数: 0