Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

Utilizing expanded data analysis, this study aims to determine how China's macroeconomic performance affects the global economy. Employing the Global Vector Auto Regression (GVAR) model, we investigate the impact of China's macroeconomic variables on the economies of its selected trading partners throughout the world. For 2000Q1–2019Q4, developed countries (the US, Hong Kong), developing Europe countries (Russian Federation and Poland), and two developing Asia countries (Vietnam and India) show that Chinese macroeconomic performance has a greater impact than middle east and central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western hemisphere. The Chinese GDP shock hits emerging Europe harder because of its extensive Russian production network. Results reveal that Chinese depreciation impacts developing Europe and Asia, while the Chinese stock market shock hits advanced economies more. Advanced and developing Asian economies are greatly affected by TV shock. Chinese FDI affects the Middle East and Central Asia, because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China trading partners use macroeconomic statistics to assess their economic priorities, industrial strengths, and weaknesses to create national interest plans. Currency adjustment, trade policies, domestic stimulus, and market diversification can minimize negative effects or capitalize on possibilities from China's macroeconomic conditions.

On 27th of July 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) responding to emerging inflation pressures increased the interest rate of the main refinancing operation to 0.5% up from 0.0% which was the norm for the second half of the previous decade. Since then, the ECB responded to inflationary shocks by increasing interest rates nine more times till 20 September 2023, reaching 4.5%. Following these unprecedented hikes in ECB interest rates, Greek banks responded swiftly by raising their lending interest rates, whereas they kept deposit rates at very low levels with the net interest margin (NIM) being at 2.6% in the first half of 2023 compared to 1.5% in the Euro-area while in November 2023, the Greek NIM was raised further to 4.83%, which was more than twice the corresponding NIM at 2.4% of Euro Area banks. Our dynamic panel VAR analysis study examines whether the oligopolistic structure of the Greek banking industry contributes to this divergence in NIM. This high NIM has induced a staggering increase in net interest income of Greek banks by 59.9% in 2023 compared to 2022 from 2.54 mil euros to 4.07 mil euros. During the same period, Greece reported a negative saving rate at − 4%, as people resorted to their savings to cope with greedflation in consumer goods. We show that successive interest rate hikes by the ECB aimed to reduce inflation have positively contributed to the sustainability of the Greek banking industry by building up stronger capital buffers and accelerating amortization of the deferred tax credits mainly through the channel of NIM. Alas, the high cost of diverging Greek NIM from the rest of the Euro Area hurts credit expansion and fuels existing greedflation by generating its own bankflation. Our study shows that EU policymakers should accelerate the banking union in the Euro Area which would enhance competitive pressures for Greek banks and potentially reduce NIM and tackle bankflation. The regaining of Greece’s investment grade gives the impetus to the convergence of Greek NIM to euro area ones.

We investigate the impact of governance quality and corruption on the propensity of COVID-19 infections to result in deaths, while controlling for a wide range of socio-economic country characteristics, for 139 countries. Governance quality is negatively associated with mortality from COVID-19, for a given number of infections. This result holds for the aggregate governance index and for most of its components, in particular government effectiveness, rule of law, and control of corruption. Corruption among business executives, judges and magistrates, the legislature, and among government officials exerts the largest impact on COVID-induced deaths. We propose directions for future policy initiatives.

Amidst economic downturn pressures, major countries emphasized the manufacturing industry and increased research and development (R&D) investments to realize innovation in manufacturing. Manufacturing enterprises are the main performers of R&D investments, so it is imperative for policymakers to accurately evaluate the policy effect of different industrial tendency and policy intensity on growth. The impact of the overall R&D expenditure on macroeconomy or the effectiveness of enterprises’ R&D investment on business profit has been reported in a great deal of literature, but so far, the impacts of enterprises’ R&D have little been experimented at the macro level and industrial level. This paper improves the knowledge production function and structured a regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the multi-dimensional macroeconomic impact of enterprises’ R&D investment. The results show that enterprises’ R&D investment has a significant role in promoting economic output, residents’ welfare, price control, and international trade, and its impact is declining over time. The impacts of enterprises’ R&D on different industries are heterogeneous; industries with lower knowledge capital are more sensitive to R&D investment. These findings contribute to the effectiveness of R&D policies.

In a highly interconnected world, it is important to determine how local events happening somewhere can influence the course of action in a different place. The current study approaches Brexit' spillover effect across Europe regarding Euroscepticism and Europeans' attitudes towards the EU. Through a quasi-experimental methodology, we employed the data from the eighth and the ninth edition of the European Social Survey (ESS). After March 29, 2017, when Theresa May triggered the formal mechanism for the Brexit process, in distant UK places, public opinion shifted towards believing the EU unification had gone too far. The political placement (left/right leaning) predicted the shift, while the use of the internet and the self-reported happiness level significantly and positively impacted the support for remaining in the EU. Subjectively experiencing unemployment did not contribute to Euroscepticism, but it was positively correlated with unfavourable opinions about immigration. Conversely, the affection toward Europe increased for politically right-leaning respondents who considered that immigration harms the local state and should be reduced. Self-reported quality of life (health and happiness), greater internet use, and news media consumption lead to more favourable views toward immigration and the idea that immigrants enrich the local state. The theoretical and practical implications are discussed with public policy recommendations.

This work investigates the SMEs of the Italian automotive supply chain, testing the impact of an innovation policy created with the target of supporting investments in Industry 4.0. In detail, the authors examine the impact of this policy on SMEs’ access to the capital market (i) and their financial performance (ii). The former is an appropriate proxy to measure the effectiveness of such policy; while the latter is a good candidate to evaluate the sustainability of this program after its conclusion. According to our results, SMEs with access to the incentives of this innovation policy are those observations with higher rates of admission to external financial resources (i.e., 0.3 higher debt ratio) and higher financial performance (i.e., 2 times the odds of having a positive profit, and 0.01 higher financial indexes). Hence, evidence suggests a positive evaluation of this public intervention, as well as positive expectations on its sustainability. In view of these insights, several policy implications are formulated to lead governments into the fourth industrial revolution.

We investigate the impact of U.S. space activity on the environment by Earth orbit level. We exploit the environmental Kuznets framework and apply the two-stage least squares method to time series data collected between 1981 and 2021. The results demonstrate that, while the orbit level does not matter for the launch, the impact on the environment, however, seems to be more notable the higher the orbit level. The results suggest that payloads and rocket bodies degrade the quality of the environment and therefore increase demand for natural resources, contribute to climate change, and increase pollution at all Earth orbit levels.

Globally, rural areas suffer from less infrastructure relative to urban areas. Political and development economists have mainly attributed this disparity in infrastructure distribution to governance. The literature has sufficiently discussed the role that rural-urban infrastructure inequality plays in development outcomes such as poverty. However, not much is known about the effect of the rural-urban infrastructure gap on the environment. To contribute to knowledge and policy discussions, we investigate the impact of rural-urban energy access (in)equality on environmental degradation and the role governance plays using data from 47 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000–2020. Evidence from the heteroskedasticity-based instrumental variable regression consistent with Driscoll and Kraay's estimation revealed that bridging rural-urban energy access inequality is associated with reduction in environmental degradation. We also documented that the direct effect of the governance-related variables used is mixed. The moderation and marginal effect estimates showed that improving governance quality conditions equality in rural-urban energy access to reduce environmental degradation. From a policy perspective, these findings suggest that the implementation of rural electrification policies supported by a good governance system would play a crucial role in mitigating environmental degradation in developing countries.

We examine the impact of fiscal decentralization reforms on two central components of public service delivery outcomes, viz., health and education using feasible generalized least squares on a balanced panel of 18 non-special category states of India for the period 2002–2020. Given India’s complex decentralization framework, intertwined with dynamic political and socioeconomic dimensions and weak institutional processes, our analysis is critical to examining the efficacy of decentralization as a policy instrument to augment the provision of public services. The novelty of our study stems not only from its longitudinal and multidimensional approach towards analyzing the effectiveness of decentralization reforms but also from its unique construction of an ‘institutional quality’ index that is critical for ensuring accountability in the decentralization process. Our findings underscore the positive impact of fiscal decentralization as a reformative intervention on public service delivery outcomes, highlighting the role of Indian polity and socioeconomic channels of accountability in shaping those outcomes. The study emphasizes the imperative to augment institutional quality, safeguard press freedom, enhance local government capacity, and delineate distinct functions within key policy domains for successful decentralization reforms.

Urban population growth in Turkey has been increasing rapidly since the middle of the 20th century. The escalating population, particularly in urban regions, has emerged as a critical challenge in achieving sustainable urban management. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2, 9, and 11 present various avenues for governments to adress this predicament. This study employs the framework of multiple stream model, offering a valuable lens through which policies can identify opportune moments for policy implementation. The study examines the impact of industrialization and agricultural land use on the country's urban population while identifying potential opportunities for enhancing sustainable urban management in alignment with the SDGs. Subsequently, it critically examines the asymmetrical effects of these two significant factors on the urban population, formulating policy recommendations based on the empirical findings. The study concludes by stressing the significance of prioritizing sustainable, long-term agricultural and industrialization policies outlined in national policy documents rather than relying on short-term and temporary solutions.