Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

英文中文

Education Expenditures and Growth: Is R&D the link? 教育支出与增长：研发是其中的联系吗？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.003

Danai Diakodimitriou , Alexandros Tsioutsios , Theofanis Papageorgiou

This article empirically investigates the relationship between education expenditures and economic growth. The study focuses on European countries with different models of state intervention, i.e. Germany, France, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, for the period 1996–2019, employing econometric techniques, such as adaptive LASSO and 3SLS model. The study finds that education expenditure significantly influences GDP per capita identifying the R&D expenditures as the main channel through which education expenditures influence economic growth. The findings are consistent throughout the sample. Also, we extend the existing literature, as the first research to empirically identify R&D expenditures as the key channel, leading to useful insights for policy makers, regarding economic growth. Specifically, it indicates that strategic funding allocation in education, particularly paired with R&D, should boost economic growth and resilience. This positive outcome leads to optimized allocation of public expenditures for innovation and competitiveness.

本文对教育支出与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。本研究采用自适应LASSO和3SLS模型等计量经济学技术，以1996-2019年不同国家干预模式的欧洲国家为研究对象，即德国、法国、希腊、意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙。研究发现，教育支出显著影响人均GDP，研发支出是教育支出影响经济增长的主要渠道。调查结果在整个样本中是一致的。此外，我们扩展了现有文献，作为第一个实证研究，确定研发支出是经济增长的关键渠道，从而为政策制定者提供有关经济增长的有用见解。具体来说，它表明教育的战略资金分配，特别是与研发相结合，应该促进经济增长和弹性。这一积极结果导致公共支出在创新和竞争力方面的优化配置。

引用次数: 0

Politically optimal lockdowns with vaccine hesitancy: Theory and evidence from Switzerland 政治上最优的封锁与疫苗犹豫：来自瑞士的理论和证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.005

Petar Stankov

Literature on optimal lockdowns is abundant. However, when are lockdowns politically optimal? Specifically, is there a level of restrictions that a majority will be ready to tolerate, thereby minimising political conflict over optimal policy choices? The answers emerge from an extended voter preferences framework, where citizens living in a pandemic choose their vaccination status, and some are vaccine-hesitant. The model demonstrates that a society will be ready to tolerate harder restrictions when citizens are more productive or their vaccine salience is higher. However, the productivity and vaccine salience effects are mitigated by the government’s capacity for fiscal transfers. Similar to other political economy models of intra-pandemic societies, zero restrictions emerge as politically optimal in societies with sufficiently high vaccine hesitancy or low productivity. Canton-level evidence from the 2021 Swiss referendum on expanding COVID-19 restrictions offers strong support for the theory. A discussion of policy implications completes the analysis.

关于最佳封锁的文献很多。然而，什么时候封锁在政治上是最佳的？具体来说，是否存在一个多数人愿意容忍的限制水平，从而最大限度地减少围绕最优政策选择的政治冲突？答案来自一个扩展的选民偏好框架，在这个框架中，生活在大流行中的公民选择他们的疫苗接种状况，有些人对疫苗犹豫不决。该模型表明，当公民生产力更高或疫苗显著性更高时，社会将准备好容忍更严格的限制。然而，生产力和疫苗显著效应因政府的财政转移能力而减弱。与流行病内部社会的其他政治经济模式类似，在疫苗犹豫度足够高或生产力低下的社会中，零限制在政治上是最优的。2021年瑞士就扩大COVID-19限制进行的全民公决为这一理论提供了强有力的支持。对政策影响的讨论完成了分析。

引用次数: 0

The multiple impact of remittances on poverty in developing countries: Direct effects and through human capital 汇款对发展中国家贫困的多重影响：直接影响和通过人力资本的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.02.002

Pablo A. Garcia-Fuentes , P. Lynn Kennedy , William R. Ash

This paper assesses the impacts of remittances on poverty for 130 developing countries for the period 1990–2019. It finds that remittances decrease poverty through their direct effect and increase human capital which enhances the total effects of remittances on poverty. A 10 % increase in per capita remittances decreases the poverty level by 1.3 %, poverty depth by 2 %, and poverty severity by 3.12 %. In addition, human capital decreases poverty level, depth, and severity. This supports the notion that developing countries should adopt policies that lower remittance costs and promote education to increase the impacts of remittances on poverty.

本文评估了1990年至2019年130个发展中国家的汇款对贫困的影响。研究发现，汇款通过其直接影响减少贫困，并增加人力资本，从而增强汇款对贫困的总体影响。人均汇款增加10%，贫困水平降低1.3%，贫困深度降低2%，贫困严重程度降低3.12%。此外，人力资本可以降低贫困的程度、深度和严重程度。这支持了这样一种观点，即发展中国家应采取降低汇款成本和促进教育的政策，以增加汇款对贫困的影响。

引用次数: 0

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in DR Congo: Spending and taxing for macroeconomic impact 刚果民主共和国财政政策的有效性：支出和税收对宏观经济的影响

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.002

M'pya Banza M , Mumbere Lubula E , Kamala Kaghoma C

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), focusing on its impact on GDP, aggregate demand, private consumption, and investment. Employing a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Bayesian estimation, the study accounts for the distinct dynamics of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households within the DRC’s socio-economic context. The results indicate that public investment expenditures significantly enhance GDP and household consumption, while current expenditures often fail to stimulate aggregate demand due to corruption and inefficiencies. Conversely, tax reductions are shown to positively influence macroeconomic variables, underlining their importance in fiscal policy design. The findings highlight the critical role of well-targeted fiscal strategies in promoting economic stability and growth in developing economies. Policy recommendations emphasize prioritizing public investment, implementing tax reforms during economic downturns, and addressing systemic corruption to maximize fiscal policy’s macroeconomic impact.

本文研究了刚果民主共和国（DRC）财政政策的有效性，重点关注其对GDP、总需求、私人消费和投资的影响。采用具有贝叶斯估计的中尺度动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，该研究解释了刚果民主共和国社会经济背景下李嘉图和非李嘉图家庭的独特动态。结果表明，公共投资支出显著提高了GDP和家庭消费，而经常支出往往由于腐败和效率低下而无法刺激总需求。相反，减税被证明对宏观经济变量有积极影响，强调了它们在财政政策设计中的重要性。研究结果强调了目标明确的财政战略在促进发展中经济体的经济稳定和增长方面的关键作用。政策建议强调优先考虑公共投资，在经济衰退期间实施税收改革，以及解决系统性腐败问题，以最大限度地发挥财政政策的宏观经济影响。

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引用次数: 0

Right-wing election success and European Banks: Evidence from the 2024 European Elections 右翼选举成功与欧洲银行：来自2024年欧洲选举的证据

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.004

Markus Tiemann

As an outcome of the 2024 European elections, right-wing political parties have gained significant shares of votes in some EU member states, which has led to solidified right-wing representation in the European Parliament. This paper assesses the impact of the right-wing electoral behaviour on the stock price of European banks and uses event study methodology to produce evidence which suggests that right-wing political success tends to drive negative abnormal stock returns on the days succeeding the EU elections. As such, the paper delivers argumentation that right-wing political success impacts European financial stability and therefore also to the European investment environment.

2024年欧洲选举的结果是，右翼政党在一些欧盟成员国获得了相当大的选票份额，这导致右翼在欧洲议会中的代表性得到巩固。本文评估了右翼选举行为对欧洲银行股价的影响，并使用事件研究方法产生证据，表明右翼政治成功倾向于在欧盟选举后的日子里推动负异常股票回报。因此，本文提出了右翼政治成功影响欧洲金融稳定的论点，因此也影响了欧洲的投资环境。

引用次数: 0

Energy price increases and mitigation policies: Redistributive effects on Italian households 能源价格上涨与缓解政策：对意大利家庭的再分配效应

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.06.006

Andrea Bonfatti , Elena Giarda

Between July 2021 and March 2023, the Italian government took action to support households’ and individuals’ incomes to help them cope with the exceptional energy and food prices surge, by means of both tariff and income-based fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we perform a microsimulation exercise to quantify the effects of the price increases and of the policy interventions on household expenditure and income. Our results indicate that the regressive impact of the price rises was mitigated by the fiscal measures, which also succeeded in reducing inequality, at risk of poverty and energy poverty. Furthermore, we observe the relevant role of income-based measures in the South of the country.

2021 年 7 月至 2023 年 3 月期间，意大利政府通过关税和基于收入的财政政策措施，支持家庭和个人收入，帮助他们应对能源和食品价格的异常飙升。在本文中，我们通过微观模拟来量化价格上涨和政策干预对家庭支出和收入的影响。我们的结果表明，财政措施减轻了价格上涨的递减影响，也成功地减少了不平等、贫困风险和能源贫困。我们还发现，在该国南部，基于收入的措施也发挥了相关作用。

引用次数: 0

Interest subvention for crop loans in India: Win-win or win-lose ? 印度农作物贷款利息补贴：双赢还是双输？

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.006

Disha Bhanot , Vivek Farias , Deeksha Sinha

Interest subsidies on crop loans are a common feature of rural credit markets in developing countries. The objective behind giving interest subsidies is two-fold – increasing access to credit and improving loan repayment rates, and is therefore regarded as a win-win for the borrower and the lender. This study focusses on a policy intervention that provides interest subsidy for crop loans availed under the Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme - India's flagship program to provide short-term agricultural credit for farmers. Using a unique dataset from a large public sector bank in India, we evaluate the causal impact of this intervention on both credit access and loan repayment behavior. We also capture the heterogeneous impact of the policy on new and existing borrowers. The results of econometric analysis - a combination of matching and difference-in-difference techniques - show a substantial increase (35%) in new loans, in addition to 20% decrease in the overall loan amount, indicating increased breadth and depth of access. However, contrary to standard economic theories, we observe a reduction in odds of repayment. Further, we find that the interest rate subsidy worsens the repayment rates of existing borrowers too. Our findings underscore the importance of various operational and behavioral aspects of the agricultural lending ecosystem to design win-win credit policies.

农作物贷款利息补贴是发展中国家农村信贷市场的一个共同特征。提供利息补贴的目的是双重的——增加获得信贷的机会和提高贷款还款率，因此被认为是借款人和贷款人的双赢。本研究的重点是一项政策干预，即为Kisan信用卡（KCC）计划下的作物贷款提供利息补贴。KCC计划是印度为农民提供短期农业信贷的旗舰项目。使用来自印度一家大型公共部门银行的独特数据集，我们评估了这种干预对信贷获取和贷款偿还行为的因果影响。我们还捕捉到了政策对新借款人和现有借款人的不同影响。计量经济学分析的结果（结合匹配和差异中的差异技术）显示，新增贷款大幅增加（35%），而贷款总额减少了20%，这表明获得贷款的广度和深度都有所增加。然而，与标准的经济理论相反，我们观察到还款几率降低。此外，我们发现利率补贴也使现有借款人的还款率恶化。我们的研究结果强调了农业贷款生态系统的各个操作和行为方面对于设计双赢信贷政策的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling global water policies 模拟全球水资源政策

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.010

Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo , Richard Damania

This article develops an analysis of evolving water availability through a novel global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that moves beyond existing approaches by incorporating both precipitation and total water storage (TWS)– a more comprehensive measure of water availability encompassing surface water, groundwater, and soil moisture. To this aim, the article first provides an overview of the problem of economic modelling of water in a general equilibrium context, through a review of CGE models that have attempted to deal with water as a key economic input and its direct and indirect influence on markets and well-being. Secondly, it includes the health effects of inadequate water supply and sanitation (WASH), capturing a key dimension of water availability and its distributional effects. Third, it provides a granular representation of how water enters in the different value chains, providing novel suggestions and a better understanding of how water widespread influence across sectors may contribute to a more significant impact of climate change than estimated by other studies. Simulations are employed to evaluate the costs associated with policy inaction under various water scenarios, including those influenced by climate change, offering crucial guidance for proactive policy interventions.

本文通过一种新的全球可计算一般平衡（CGE）模型对不断变化的水可用性进行了分析，该模型超越了现有方法，结合了降水和总储水量（TWS）——一种更全面的水可用性测量方法，包括地表水、地下水和土壤水分。为此，本文首先概述了一般均衡背景下的水经济建模问题，通过对试图将水作为关键经济投入及其对市场和福祉的直接和间接影响处理的CGE模型的回顾。第二，它包括水供应和卫生设施不足对健康的影响，抓住了水供应及其分配影响的一个关键方面。第三，它提供了水如何进入不同价值链的细粒度表示，提供了新颖的建议，并更好地理解了水在各个部门的广泛影响如何可能对气候变化的影响比其他研究估计的更大。利用模拟来评估各种水情景（包括受气候变化影响的情景）下政策不作为的相关成本，为积极的政策干预提供重要指导。

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引用次数: 0

The intractability of public debt in post-independent Zimbabwe: An international comparison 独立后津巴布韦棘手的公共债务：一个国际比较

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.009

Freeman Munisi Mateko , Barbra Maiwasha , Emmanuel Tsara

How has public and publicly guaranteed debt in post-independent Zimbabwe relentlessly spiralled over time? The mixed method study aimed to determine the causes and effects that have triggered a debt crisis in Zimbabwe. Descriptive data on public debt was obtained from the World Bank portal for the period 1980–2022. The research used documentary evidence obtained from online repositories. Documentary analysis was used under the data analysis section. Research findings indicated that high public debt was a result of continuous borrowing from financial institutions, corruption, weak institutions, non-adherence to the available legal frameworks, unbudgeted expenditures, as well as a lack of transparency and accountability in public debt management. It was also established that unsustainable public debt in Zimbabwe led to slow economic growth and a loss of creditworthiness status. The novelty of the research is on the basis of examining the causes and effects of public debt as well as providing solutions. These research findings imply that Zimbabwe must reduce its public debt levels in order to improve its capacity to meet macro-economic objectives and attain sustainable development goals. In terms of policy recommendations, it was suggested that there is a need for implementing public debt policy, debt transparency, a strong commitment to deal with corruption, responsible and restrained government borrowing.

独立后的津巴布韦的公共债务和公共担保债务是如何随着时间无情地螺旋式上升的？这项混合方法研究旨在确定引发津巴布韦债务危机的原因和影响。从世界银行门户网站获得了1980-2022年期间公共债务的描述性数据。该研究使用了从在线存储库获得的文件证据。在数据分析一节下采用了文献分析。研究结果表明，公共债务高企是由于不断向金融机构借款、腐败、机构薄弱、不遵守现有的法律框架、未列入预算的支出以及公共债务管理缺乏透明度和问责制。人们还确定，津巴布韦不可持续的公共债务导致经济增长缓慢和丧失信誉地位。该研究的新颖之处在于，它考察了公共债务的原因和影响，并提出了解决方案。这些研究结果表明，津巴布韦必须降低其公共债务水平，以便提高其实现宏观经济目标和实现可持续发展目标的能力。在政策建议方面，有人建议有必要执行公共债务政策、债务透明度、坚决承诺处理腐败、负责任和有节制的政府借款。

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引用次数: 0

Discrimination based on employer preferences: The height premium in China 基于雇主偏好的歧视：中国的身高溢价

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.002

Fei Peng , Lili Kang , Xiaocong Yang , Sajid Anwar

This paper examines the policy issue of height-based discrimination in China's labour market using a comprehensive nationwide survey dataset spanning from 1989 to 2015. Employing a theoretical framework that considers statistical discrimination resulting from employer preferences for cognitive and non-cognitive skills associated with productivity, the research investigates the impact of height on hourly wages. The empirical analysis reveals a height premium of approximately 5.97 % per ten-centimetre increase and identifies educational attainment as a factor explaining about one-third of this premium. Furthermore, the study finds that female employees with higher education levels experience greater height premiums. Interestingly, the height premium is smaller in the public sector, senior technical occupations, in regions with a collectivist culture that centres around traditional rice-growing practices, and during the earlier transition period (before 2000) when cognitive skills held more significance. These findings suggest the widespread occurrence of height-based statistical discrimination in China’s labour market and underscore the necessity for the policy interventions of health care and nutrition intake in early life and the later effective anti-discrimination regulations in labour market.

本文利用1989年至2015年的全国调查数据，研究了中国劳动力市场中基于身高的歧视政策问题。该研究采用了一个理论框架，考虑了雇主对与生产力相关的认知和非认知技能的偏好所导致的统计歧视，研究了身高对小时工资的影响。实证分析显示，每增加10厘米，身高溢价约为5.97%，并确定教育程度是解释这一溢价约三分之一的因素。此外，研究还发现，受教育程度较高的女性员工的身高溢价更高。有趣的是，在公共部门、高级技术职业、以传统水稻种植为中心的集体主义文化地区，以及在认知技能更为重要的早期过渡时期（2000年之前），身高溢价较小。这些研究结果表明，中国劳动力市场普遍存在基于身高的统计歧视，并强调了在生命早期进行医疗保健和营养摄入的政策干预以及在劳动力市场中制定有效的反歧视法规的必要性。

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