首页 > 最新文献

Judgment and Decision Making最新文献

英文 中文
Systematic metacognitive reflection helps people discover far-sighted decision strategies: A process-tracing experiment 系统的元认知反射帮助人们发现有远见的决策策略:一个过程追踪实验
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.16
Frederic Becker, M. Wirzberger, Viktoria Pammer-Schindler, S. Srinivas, Falk Lieder
Short-sighted decisions can have devastating consequences, and teaching people to make their decisions in a more far-sighted way is challenging. Previous research found that reflecting on one’s behavior can boost learning from success and failure. Here, we explore the potential benefits of guiding people to reflect on whether and how they thought about what to do (i.e., systematic metacognitive reflection). We devised a series of Socratic questions that prompt people to reflect on their decision-making and tested their effectiveness in a process-tracing experiment with a 5-step planning task ( $N=265$ ). Each participant went through several cycles of making a series of decisions and then either reflecting on how they made those decisions, answering unrelated questions, or moving on to the next decision right away. We found that systematic metacognitive reflection helps people discover adaptive, far-sighted decision strategies faster. Our results suggest that systematic metacognitive reflection is a promising approach to boosting people’s decision-making competence.
短视的决定可能会带来毁灭性的后果,教人们以更有远见的方式做出决定是一项挑战。先前的研究发现,反思一个人的行为可以促进从成功和失败中学习。在这里,我们探讨了引导人们反思他们是否以及如何思考要做什么(即,系统的元认知反思)的潜在好处。我们设计了一系列苏格拉底式问题,促使人们反思自己的决策,并在一个包含五步计划任务的过程追踪实验中测试了这些问题的有效性。每个参与者都要经历几个循环,做出一系列决定,然后要么反思他们是如何做出这些决定的,要么回答不相关的问题,要么立即进行下一个决定。我们发现,系统的元认知反射有助于人们更快地发现适应性强、有远见的决策策略。我们的研究结果表明,系统的元认知反射是一种很有希望提高人们决策能力的方法。
{"title":"Systematic metacognitive reflection helps people discover far-sighted decision strategies: A process-tracing experiment","authors":"Frederic Becker, M. Wirzberger, Viktoria Pammer-Schindler, S. Srinivas, Falk Lieder","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.16","url":null,"abstract":"Short-sighted decisions can have devastating consequences, and teaching people to make their decisions in a more far-sighted way is challenging. Previous research found that reflecting on one’s behavior can boost learning from success and failure. Here, we explore the potential benefits of guiding people to reflect on whether and how they thought about what to do (i.e., systematic metacognitive reflection). We devised a series of Socratic questions that prompt people to reflect on their decision-making and tested their effectiveness in a process-tracing experiment with a 5-step planning task ( $N=265$ ). Each participant went through several cycles of making a series of decisions and then either reflecting on how they made those decisions, answering unrelated questions, or moving on to the next decision right away. We found that systematic metacognitive reflection helps people discover adaptive, far-sighted decision strategies faster. Our results suggest that systematic metacognitive reflection is a promising approach to boosting people’s decision-making competence.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Broad effects of shallow understanding: Explaining an unrelated phenomenon exposes the illusion of explanatory depth 肤浅理解的广泛影响:解释一个不相关的现象暴露了解释深度的错觉
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.24
E. Meyers, J. Gretton, Joshua R. C. Budge, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler
People often overestimate their understanding of how things work. For instance, people believe that they can explain even ordinary phenomena such as the operation of zippers and speedometers in greater depth than they really can. This is called the illusion of explanatory depth. Fortunately, a person can expose the illusion by attempting to generate a causal explanation for how the phenomenon operates (e.g., how a zipper works). This might be because explanation makes salient the gaps in a person’s knowledge of that phenomenon. However, recent evidence suggests that people might be able to expose the illusion by instead explaining a different phenomenon. Across three preregistered experiments, we tested whether the process of explaining one phenomenon (e.g., how a zipper works) would lead someone to report knowing less about a completely different phenomenon (e.g., how snow forms). In each experiment, we found that attempting to explain one phenomenon led participants to report knowing less about various phenomena. For example, participants reported knowing less about how snow forms after attempting to explain how a zipper works. We discuss alternative accounts of the illusion of explanatory depth that might better fit our results. We also consider the utility of explanation as an indirect, non-confrontational debiasing method in which a person generalizes a feeling of ignorance about one phenomenon to their knowledge base more generally.
人们常常高估自己对事物运作的理解。例如,人们认为他们甚至可以更深入地解释拉链和速度计的运作等普通现象。这就是所谓的解释深度错觉。幸运的是,一个人可以通过试图产生一个现象如何运作的因果解释(例如,拉链是如何工作的)来揭露这种错觉。这可能是因为解释会突出人们对这种现象的知识差距。然而,最近的证据表明,人们或许可以通过解释一种不同的现象来揭露这种错觉。在三个预先注册的实验中,我们测试了解释一种现象(例如,拉链是如何工作的)的过程是否会导致某人报告对完全不同的现象(例如,雪是如何形成的)了解较少。在每个实验中,我们发现,试图解释一种现象会导致参与者报告对其他现象的了解减少。例如,参与者报告说,在试图解释拉链是如何工作的之后,他们对雪是如何形成的了解更少了。我们讨论了可能更符合我们结果的解释深度错觉的其他解释。我们还认为解释的效用是一种间接的、非对抗性的消除偏见的方法,在这种方法中,人们将对一种现象的无知感更普遍地概括到他们的知识库中。
{"title":"Broad effects of shallow understanding: Explaining an unrelated phenomenon exposes the illusion of explanatory depth","authors":"E. Meyers, J. Gretton, Joshua R. C. Budge, Jonathan A. Fugelsang, Derek J. Koehler","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.24","url":null,"abstract":"People often overestimate their understanding of how things work. For instance, people believe that they can explain even ordinary phenomena such as the operation of zippers and speedometers in greater depth than they really can. This is called the illusion of explanatory depth. Fortunately, a person can expose the illusion by attempting to generate a causal explanation for how the phenomenon operates (e.g., how a zipper works). This might be because explanation makes salient the gaps in a person’s knowledge of that phenomenon. However, recent evidence suggests that people might be able to expose the illusion by instead explaining a different phenomenon. Across three preregistered experiments, we tested whether the process of explaining one phenomenon (e.g., how a zipper works) would lead someone to report knowing less about a completely different phenomenon (e.g., how snow forms). In each experiment, we found that attempting to explain one phenomenon led participants to report knowing less about various phenomena. For example, participants reported knowing less about how snow forms after attempting to explain how a zipper works. We discuss alternative accounts of the illusion of explanatory depth that might better fit our results. We also consider the utility of explanation as an indirect, non-confrontational debiasing method in which a person generalizes a feeling of ignorance about one phenomenon to their knowledge base more generally.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Trolley problems in context – ERRATUM 背景下的电车问题-勘误
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.8
Christopher T. Shallow, Rumen Iliev, D. Medin
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Society for Judgment and Decision Making and European Association for Decision Making. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
©作者,2023。剑桥大学出版社代表判断与决策学会和欧洲决策协会出版。这是一篇开放获取的文章,在知识共享署名许可(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)的条款下分发,该许可允许不受限制的重复使用、分发和复制,前提是原始文章被适当引用。
{"title":"Trolley problems in context – ERRATUM","authors":"Christopher T. Shallow, Rumen Iliev, D. Medin","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.8","url":null,"abstract":"© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Society for Judgment and Decision Making and European Association for Decision Making. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal learning with interrupted time series data 中断时间序列数据的因果学习
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.29
Yiwen Zhang, Benjamin M. Rottman
People often test changes to see if the change is producing the desired result (e.g., does taking an antidepressant improve my mood, or does keeping to a consistent schedule reduce a child’s tantrums?). Despite the prevalence of such decisions in everyday life, it is unknown how well people can assess whether the change has influenced the result. According to interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), doing so involves assessing whether there has been a change to the mean (‘level’) or slope of the outcome, after versus before the change. Making this assessment could be hard for multiple reasons. First, people may have difficulty understanding the need to control the slope prior to the change. Additionally, one may need to remember events that occurred prior to the change, which may be a long time ago. In Experiments 1 and 2, we tested how well people can judge causality in 9 ITSA situations across 4 presentation formats in which participants were presented with the data simultaneously or in quick succession. We also explored individual differences. In Experiment 3, we tested how well people can judge causality when the events were spaced out once per day, mimicking a more realistic timeframe of how people make changes in their lives. We found that participants were able to learn accurate causal relations when there is a zero pre-intervention slope in the time series but had difficulty controlling for nonzero pre-intervention slopes. We discuss these results in terms of 2 heuristics that people might use.
人们经常测试变化,看看变化是否产生了预期的结果(例如,服用抗抑郁药是否改善了我的情绪,或者保持一致的时间表是否减少了孩子的发脾气?)尽管这种决定在日常生活中很普遍,但人们能否很好地评估这种变化是否影响了结果尚不清楚。根据中断时间序列分析(ITSA),这样做涉及评估在变化之后与变化之前,结果的平均值(“水平”)或斜率是否发生了变化。由于多种原因,做出这种评估可能很困难。首先,人们可能很难理解在变化之前控制坡度的必要性。此外,您可能需要记住在更改之前发生的事件,这可能是很久以前的事情。在实验1和2中,我们测试了人们在9种ITSA情境中判断因果关系的能力,这些情境包括4种呈现形式,参与者同时或快速连续地呈现数据。我们还探讨了个体差异。在实验3中,我们测试了当事件每天间隔一次时,人们如何判断因果关系,模拟人们如何在生活中做出改变的更现实的时间框架。我们发现,当时间序列中存在零预干预斜率时,参与者能够准确地学习因果关系,但在控制非零预干预斜率时,参与者很难。我们根据人们可能使用的两种启发式来讨论这些结果。
{"title":"Causal learning with interrupted time series data","authors":"Yiwen Zhang, Benjamin M. Rottman","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.29","url":null,"abstract":"People often test changes to see if the change is producing the desired result (e.g., does taking an antidepressant improve my mood, or does keeping to a consistent schedule reduce a child’s tantrums?). Despite the prevalence of such decisions in everyday life, it is unknown how well people can assess whether the change has influenced the result. According to interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), doing so involves assessing whether there has been a change to the mean (‘level’) or slope of the outcome, after versus before the change. Making this assessment could be hard for multiple reasons. First, people may have difficulty understanding the need to control the slope prior to the change. Additionally, one may need to remember events that occurred prior to the change, which may be a long time ago. In Experiments 1 and 2, we tested how well people can judge causality in 9 ITSA situations across 4 presentation formats in which participants were presented with the data simultaneously or in quick succession. We also explored individual differences. In Experiment 3, we tested how well people can judge causality when the events were spaced out once per day, mimicking a more realistic timeframe of how people make changes in their lives. We found that participants were able to learn accurate causal relations when there is a zero pre-intervention slope in the time series but had difficulty controlling for nonzero pre-intervention slopes. We discuss these results in terms of 2 heuristics that people might use.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Confidence in China’s political system was linked to perception of Covid infection risk, Covid health threat, and attitudes toward dynamic Zero-Covid policy 对中国政治制度的信心与对新冠病毒感染风险、新冠病毒健康威胁的认知以及对动态零感染政策的态度有关
3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.34
King King Li, Ying-yi Hong
Abstract How was Chinese people’s confidence in the political system linked to their perception of Covid infection risk, perception of health threat of Covid infection, lockdown experience, and attitudes toward the dynamic Zero-Covid policy? Using 2 waves of online surveys conducted in 2020 and 2022, we investigated how these factors were related. Individuals who were more supportive of the Zero-Covid policy were more confident. Those who were less supportive of the Zero-Covid policy were from areas with more severe Covid infections and experienced a longer lockdown as well; these individuals also perceived higher Covid infection risk and health threat. As such, their confidence in the political system was also more likely to drop from 2020 to 2022. In sum, these findings suggest that Chinese people’s confidence in the political system was linked to their Covid infection risk perception, perceived Covid threat to health, lockdown experience, and attitudes toward the Zero-Covid policy. These findings were corroborated with the severity of Covid infections in the province and individual’s political beliefs and orientation.
中国人对政治制度的信心与他们对新冠病毒感染风险的认知、对新冠病毒感染健康威胁的认知、封锁经历以及对动态零冠政策的态度有何关系?通过在2020年和2022年进行的两波在线调查,我们调查了这些因素之间的关系。更支持零冠政策的人更有信心。那些不太支持零感染政策的人来自感染更严重的地区,也经历了更长的封锁时间;这些人也认为感染新冠病毒的风险和健康威胁更高。因此,从2020年到2022年,他们对政治体系的信心也更有可能下降。综上所述,这些发现表明,中国人对政治制度的信心与他们对新冠肺炎感染风险的认知、对新冠肺炎对健康的威胁、封锁经历以及对零感染政策的态度有关。这些发现与该省新冠病毒感染的严重程度以及个人的政治信仰和取向相吻合。
{"title":"Confidence in China’s political system was linked to perception of Covid infection risk, Covid health threat, and attitudes toward dynamic Zero-Covid policy","authors":"King King Li, Ying-yi Hong","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.34","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How was Chinese people’s confidence in the political system linked to their perception of Covid infection risk, perception of health threat of Covid infection, lockdown experience, and attitudes toward the dynamic Zero-Covid policy? Using 2 waves of online surveys conducted in 2020 and 2022, we investigated how these factors were related. Individuals who were more supportive of the Zero-Covid policy were more confident. Those who were less supportive of the Zero-Covid policy were from areas with more severe Covid infections and experienced a longer lockdown as well; these individuals also perceived higher Covid infection risk and health threat. As such, their confidence in the political system was also more likely to drop from 2020 to 2022. In sum, these findings suggest that Chinese people’s confidence in the political system was linked to their Covid infection risk perception, perceived Covid threat to health, lockdown experience, and attitudes toward the Zero-Covid policy. These findings were corroborated with the severity of Covid infections in the province and individual’s political beliefs and orientation.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135445772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Give what is required and take only what you need! The effect of framing on rule-breaking in social dilemmas 给你需要的,只拿你需要的!社会困境中框架对规则破坏的影响
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.18
Marc Wyszynski, A. Bauer
To investigate the impact of framing on rule-breaking in social dilemmas, we incorporated a rule in a 1-shot resource game with 2 framing treatments: in one frame, we offered a give-some dilemma (i.e., a variant of a public goods game), and in the other frame, a take-some dilemma (i.e., a variant of a commons dilemma game). In each frame, all participants were part of 1 single collective sharing a common good. Each participant was initially equipped with 1 of 5 different endowments of points from which they must give/were allowed to take amounts to/from the common good. The rule established outcome equality between participants by prescribing the exact amounts of what to give/take to/from the common good, which was finally divided equally among participants. Participants decided whether to cooperate and comply with the rule or to break the rule to their own advantage and to the detriment of the collective (i.e., giving lower/taking higher amounts). The results of an online experiment with 202 participants showed a significantly higher proportion of individuals breaking the rule in the take-some dilemma than in the give-some dilemma. In addition, endowment size influenced the proportion of rule-breaking behavior in the take-some dilemma. However, the average amounts of points not given/taken too much were not different between the 2 dilemma types.
为了研究在社会困境中框架对规则破坏的影响,我们在一个单次资源游戏中加入了一条规则,并采用了两种框架处理:在一个框架中,我们提供了一个给予困境(即公共物品游戏的变体),在另一个框架中,我们提供了一个接受困境(即公共困境游戏的变体)。在每个框架中,所有参与者都是共享共同利益的单一集体的一部分。每个参与者最初都配备了5种不同的点数禀赋中的1种,他们必须从这些点数中给予/被允许从共同利益中获得数量。该规则通过规定给予/获取/从共同利益中获得的确切数量,最终在参与者之间平均分配,从而在参与者之间建立了结果平等。参与者决定是合作并遵守规则,还是为了自己的利益而破坏规则,损害集体利益(即,给予更少/获得更多)。一项有202名参与者参与的在线实验结果显示,在“索取”困境中违反规则的比例明显高于“给予”困境。此外,禀赋规模也影响了“拿一些”困境中违反规则行为的比例。然而,两种困境类型之间的平均得分并没有什么不同。
{"title":"Give what is required and take only what you need! The effect of framing on rule-breaking in social dilemmas","authors":"Marc Wyszynski, A. Bauer","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.18","url":null,"abstract":"To investigate the impact of framing on rule-breaking in social dilemmas, we incorporated a rule in a 1-shot resource game with 2 framing treatments: in one frame, we offered a give-some dilemma (i.e., a variant of a public goods game), and in the other frame, a take-some dilemma (i.e., a variant of a commons dilemma game). In each frame, all participants were part of 1 single collective sharing a common good. Each participant was initially equipped with 1 of 5 different endowments of points from which they must give/were allowed to take amounts to/from the common good. The rule established outcome equality between participants by prescribing the exact amounts of what to give/take to/from the common good, which was finally divided equally among participants. Participants decided whether to cooperate and comply with the rule or to break the rule to their own advantage and to the detriment of the collective (i.e., giving lower/taking higher amounts). The results of an online experiment with 202 participants showed a significantly higher proportion of individuals breaking the rule in the take-some dilemma than in the give-some dilemma. In addition, endowment size influenced the proportion of rule-breaking behavior in the take-some dilemma. However, the average amounts of points not given/taken too much were not different between the 2 dilemma types.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The numeric understanding measures: Developing and validating adaptive and nonadaptive numeracy scales 数字理解测量:开发和验证自适应和非自适应计算能力量表
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.17
Michael C. Silverstein, Pär Bjälkebring, Brittany Shoots-Reinhard, Ellen Peters
Numeracy—the ability to understand and use numeric information—is linked to good decision-making. Several problems exist with current numeracy measures, however. Depending on the participant sample, some existing measures are too easy or too hard; also, established measures often contain items well-known to participants. The current article aimed to develop new numeric understanding measures (NUMs) including a 1-item (1-NUM), 4-item (4-NUM), and 4-item adaptive measure (A-NUM). In a calibration study, 2 participant samples (n = 226 and 264 from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk [MTurk]) each responded to half of 84 novel numeracy items. We calibrated items using 2-parameter logistic item response theory (IRT) models. Based on item parameters, we developed the 3 new numeracy measures. In a subsequent validation study, 600 MTurk participants completed the new numeracy measures, the adaptive Berlin Numeracy Test, and the Weller Rasch-Based Numeracy Test, in randomized order. To establish predictive and convergent validities, participants also completed judgment and decision tasks, Raven’s progressive matrices, a vocabulary test, and demographics. Confirmatory factor analyses suggested that the 1-NUM, 4-NUM, and A-NUM load onto the same factor as existing measures. The NUM scales also showed similar association patterns to subjective numeracy and cognitive ability measures as established measures. Finally, they effectively predicted classic numeracy effects. In fact, based on power analyses, the A-NUM and 4-NUM appeared to confer more power to detect effects than existing measures. Thus, using IRT, we developed 3 brief numeracy measures, using novel items and without sacrificing construct scope. The measures can be downloaded as Qualtrics files (https://osf.io/pcegz/).
计算能力——理解和使用数字信息的能力——与良好的决策有关。然而,目前的计算方法存在一些问题。根据参与者样本的不同,现有的一些措施太容易或太难;此外,既定的衡量标准通常包含参与者所熟知的项目。本文旨在开发新的数字理解测量(NUMs),包括1项(1-NUM), 4项(4-NUM)和4项自适应测量(a - num)。在一项校准研究中,2个参与者样本(n = 226和264来自亚马逊的土耳其机器人[MTurk])每人回答了84个新计算题中的一半。我们使用2参数逻辑项目反应理论(IRT)模型校准项目。基于项目参数,我们开发了3种新的计算方法。在随后的验证研究中,600名MTurk参与者按随机顺序完成了新的计算能力测试,适应性柏林计算能力测试和基于韦勒·拉赫的计算能力测试。为了建立预测效度和收敛效度,参与者还完成了判断和决策任务、瑞文渐进矩阵、词汇测试和人口统计。验证性因素分析表明,1-NUM、4-NUM和A-NUM的负荷与现有措施相同。NUM量表也显示出与主观计算能力和认知能力测量类似的关联模式。最后,他们有效地预测了经典计算效应。事实上,根据功效分析,A-NUM和4-NUM似乎比现有的措施赋予更大的功效来检测效果。因此,使用IRT,我们开发了3个简短的计算方法,使用新颖的项目,而不牺牲结构范围。这些措施可以作为Qualtrics文件下载(https://osf.io/pcegz/)。
{"title":"The numeric understanding measures: Developing and validating adaptive and nonadaptive numeracy scales","authors":"Michael C. Silverstein, Pär Bjälkebring, Brittany Shoots-Reinhard, Ellen Peters","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.17","url":null,"abstract":"Numeracy—the ability to understand and use numeric information—is linked to good decision-making. Several problems exist with current numeracy measures, however. Depending on the participant sample, some existing measures are too easy or too hard; also, established measures often contain items well-known to participants. The current article aimed to develop new numeric understanding measures (NUMs) including a 1-item (1-NUM), 4-item (4-NUM), and 4-item adaptive measure (A-NUM). In a calibration study, 2 participant samples (n = 226 and 264 from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk [MTurk]) each responded to half of 84 novel numeracy items. We calibrated items using 2-parameter logistic item response theory (IRT) models. Based on item parameters, we developed the 3 new numeracy measures. In a subsequent validation study, 600 MTurk participants completed the new numeracy measures, the adaptive Berlin Numeracy Test, and the Weller Rasch-Based Numeracy Test, in randomized order. To establish predictive and convergent validities, participants also completed judgment and decision tasks, Raven’s progressive matrices, a vocabulary test, and demographics. Confirmatory factor analyses suggested that the 1-NUM, 4-NUM, and A-NUM load onto the same factor as existing measures. The NUM scales also showed similar association patterns to subjective numeracy and cognitive ability measures as established measures. Finally, they effectively predicted classic numeracy effects. In fact, based on power analyses, the A-NUM and 4-NUM appeared to confer more power to detect effects than existing measures. Thus, using IRT, we developed 3 brief numeracy measures, using novel items and without sacrificing construct scope. The measures can be downloaded as Qualtrics files (https://osf.io/pcegz/).","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Virtuous opinion change in structured groups 结构化群体中的良性意见变化
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.22
F. Bolger, G. Rowe, Ian Hamlin, Ian K. Belton, Megan M. Crawford, Aileen Sissons, Courtney Taylor Browne Lūka, Alexandrina Vasilichi, George Wright
Although the individual has been the focus of most research into judgment and decision-making (JDM), important decisions in the real world are often made collectively rather than individually, a tendency that has increased in recent times with the opportunities for easy information exchange through the Internet. From this perspective, JDM research that factors in this social context has increased generalizability and mundane realism relative to that which ignores it. We delineate a problem-space for research within which we locate protocols that are used to study or support collective JDM, identify a common research question posed by all of these protocols—‘What are the factors leading to opinion change for the better (‘virtuous opinion change’) in individual JDM agents?’—and propose a modeling approach and research paradigm using structured groups (i.e., groups with some constraints on their interaction), for answering this question. This paradigm, based on that used in studies of judge-adviser systems, avoids the need for real interacting groups and their attendant logistical problems, lack of power, and poor experimental control. We report an experiment using our paradigm on the effects of group size and opinion diversity on judgmental forecasting performance to illustrate our approach. The study found a U-shaped effect of group size on the probability of opinion change, but no effect on the amount of virtuous opinion change. Implications of our approach for development of more externally valid empirical studies and theories of JDM, and for the design of structured-group techniques to support collective JDM, are discussed.
尽管个人一直是大多数关于判断和决策(JDM)的研究的焦点,但现实世界中的重要决策通常是集体而不是个人做出的,这一趋势在最近随着互联网信息交换的便利而增加。从这个角度来看,JDM的研究表明,在这种社会背景下的因素相对于忽视它的因素而言,具有更高的普遍性和世俗现实性。我们描述了一个研究的问题空间,在这个研究空间中,我们找到了用于研究或支持集体JDM的协议,确定了所有这些协议提出的一个共同研究问题——“在单个JDM代理中,什么因素导致了更好的意见变化(“良性意见变化”)?”并提出了一种建模方法和研究范式,使用结构化群体(即,对其相互作用有一些限制的群体)来回答这个问题。这种范式基于法官-顾问制度的研究,避免了对真正相互作用的群体的需要以及随之而来的后勤问题、缺乏权力和实验控制不善。我们报告了一个实验,使用我们的范式对群体规模和意见多样性对判断预测性能的影响来说明我们的方法。研究发现,群体规模对观点改变的概率呈u型效应,但对良性观点改变的数量没有影响。讨论了我们的方法对开发更多外部有效的经验研究和JDM理论的影响,以及对设计支持集体JDM的结构化组技术的影响。
{"title":"Virtuous opinion change in structured groups","authors":"F. Bolger, G. Rowe, Ian Hamlin, Ian K. Belton, Megan M. Crawford, Aileen Sissons, Courtney Taylor Browne Lūka, Alexandrina Vasilichi, George Wright","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.22","url":null,"abstract":"Although the individual has been the focus of most research into judgment and decision-making (JDM), important decisions in the real world are often made collectively rather than individually, a tendency that has increased in recent times with the opportunities for easy information exchange through the Internet. From this perspective, JDM research that factors in this social context has increased generalizability and mundane realism relative to that which ignores it. We delineate a problem-space for research within which we locate protocols that are used to study or support collective JDM, identify a common research question posed by all of these protocols—‘What are the factors leading to opinion change for the better (‘virtuous opinion change’) in individual JDM agents?’—and propose a modeling approach and research paradigm using structured groups (i.e., groups with some constraints on their interaction), for answering this question. This paradigm, based on that used in studies of judge-adviser systems, avoids the need for real interacting groups and their attendant logistical problems, lack of power, and poor experimental control. We report an experiment using our paradigm on the effects of group size and opinion diversity on judgmental forecasting performance to illustrate our approach. The study found a U-shaped effect of group size on the probability of opinion change, but no effect on the amount of virtuous opinion change. Implications of our approach for development of more externally valid empirical studies and theories of JDM, and for the design of structured-group techniques to support collective JDM, are discussed.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The benefits of deciding now and not later: The influence of the timing between acquiring knowledge and deciding on decision confidence, omission neglect bias, and choice deferral 现在决定而不是以后决定的好处:获取知识和决定之间的时间对决策信心、遗漏、忽视偏见和选择延迟的影响
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2022.2
José Mauro C. Hernandez, M. C. Costa Filho, Donald R. Gaffney, Frank Kardes
Consumers often spend time searching before making a purchasing decision to acquire knowledge about products. If the purchasing decision is delayed, recall of acquired knowledge is likely to be impaired. Because products in the marketplace are rarely described completely, consumers who take too long to decide may fail to notice the absence of information relevant to a purchasing decision and fall prey to a phenomenon called ‘omission neglect’, an inability to detect missing information and form extreme and confidently held judgments. Omission neglect may be corrected by acquiring knowledge about the target product before making the choice. In the present research, we examine consumer decisions in the context of choice sets described incompletely and presented either immediately or a week after the acquisition of relevant information about a target product. Specifically, we investigate how the timing between product knowledge acquisition and decision-making affects the detection of missing information, decision confidence, and choice deferral. Across three experiments, we find that, after acquiring knowledge, when consumers have their decision delayed, they are less able to detect missing information, feel more confident, and defer choices less.
消费者在做出购买决定之前经常花时间搜索,以获取有关产品的知识。如果购买决策被推迟,对已获得知识的回忆可能会受损。由于市场上的产品很少被完整地描述,花费太长时间来决定的消费者可能没有注意到与购买决策相关的信息的缺失,并成为“遗漏忽视”现象的牺牲品,无法发现缺失的信息并形成极端和自信的判断。在做出选择之前,可以通过了解目标产品来纠正遗漏和忽视。在本研究中,我们研究了在选择集描述不完整的背景下的消费者决策,这些选择集要么是立即呈现的,要么是在获得有关目标产品的相关信息后一周呈现的。具体而言,我们研究了产品知识获取和决策之间的时间如何影响缺失信息的检测、决策置信度和选择延迟。在三个实验中,我们发现,在获得知识后,当消费者的决定被推迟时,他们发现缺失信息的能力更低,更自信,推迟选择的次数也更少。
{"title":"The benefits of deciding now and not later: The influence of the timing between acquiring knowledge and deciding on decision confidence, omission neglect bias, and choice deferral","authors":"José Mauro C. Hernandez, M. C. Costa Filho, Donald R. Gaffney, Frank Kardes","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2022.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2022.2","url":null,"abstract":"Consumers often spend time searching before making a purchasing decision to acquire knowledge about products. If the purchasing decision is delayed, recall of acquired knowledge is likely to be impaired. Because products in the marketplace are rarely described completely, consumers who take too long to decide may fail to notice the absence of information relevant to a purchasing decision and fall prey to a phenomenon called ‘omission neglect’, an inability to detect missing information and form extreme and confidently held judgments. Omission neglect may be corrected by acquiring knowledge about the target product before making the choice. In the present research, we examine consumer decisions in the context of choice sets described incompletely and presented either immediately or a week after the acquisition of relevant information about a target product. Specifically, we investigate how the timing between product knowledge acquisition and decision-making affects the detection of missing information, decision confidence, and choice deferral. Across three experiments, we find that, after acquiring knowledge, when consumers have their decision delayed, they are less able to detect missing information, feel more confident, and defer choices less.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56717085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reasoning and cognitive control, fast and slow 推理和认知控制,快和慢
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.32
Aikaterini Voudouri, Bence Bagó, G. Borst, Wim De Neys
Influential ‘fast-and-slow’ dual process models suggest that sound reasoning requires the correction of fast, intuitive thought processes by slower, controlled deliberation. Recent findings with high-level reasoning tasks started to question this characterization. Here we tested the generalizability of these findings to low-level cognitive control tasks. More specifically, we examined whether people who responded accurately to the classic Stroop and Flanker tasks could also do so when their deliberate control was minimized. A two-response paradigm, in which people were required to give an initial ‘fast’ response under time–pressure and cognitive load, allowed us to identify the presumed intuitive answer that preceded the final ‘slow’ response given after deliberation. Across our studies, we consistently find that correct final Stroop and Flanker responses are often non-corrective in nature. Good performance in cognitive control tasks seems to be driven by accurate ‘fast’ intuitive processing, rather than by ‘slow’ controlled correction of these intuitions. We also explore the association between Stroop and reasoning performance and discuss implications for the dual process view of human cognition.
有影响力的“快慢”双重过程模型表明,合理的推理需要通过较慢的、有控制的思考来纠正快速、直觉的思维过程。最近对高级推理任务的研究结果开始质疑这种特征。在这里,我们测试了这些发现在低水平认知控制任务中的普遍性。更具体地说,我们研究了那些对经典的Stroop和Flanker任务做出准确反应的人,在刻意控制最小化时是否也能做到这一点。在双反应范式中,人们被要求在时间压力和认知负荷下给出最初的“快速”反应,这使我们能够在深思熟虑后给出最终的“缓慢”反应之前确定假定的直觉答案。在我们的研究中,我们始终发现正确的Stroop和Flanker最终反应通常是非纠正性的。在认知控制任务中的良好表现似乎是由准确的“快速”直觉处理驱动的,而不是由这些直觉的“缓慢”控制纠正驱动的。我们还探讨了Stroop与推理表现之间的关系,并讨论了人类认知的双重过程观的含义。
{"title":"Reasoning and cognitive control, fast and slow","authors":"Aikaterini Voudouri, Bence Bagó, G. Borst, Wim De Neys","doi":"10.1017/jdm.2023.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.32","url":null,"abstract":"Influential ‘fast-and-slow’ dual process models suggest that sound reasoning requires the correction of fast, intuitive thought processes by slower, controlled deliberation. Recent findings with high-level reasoning tasks started to question this characterization. Here we tested the generalizability of these findings to low-level cognitive control tasks. More specifically, we examined whether people who responded accurately to the classic Stroop and Flanker tasks could also do so when their deliberate control was minimized. A two-response paradigm, in which people were required to give an initial ‘fast’ response under time–pressure and cognitive load, allowed us to identify the presumed intuitive answer that preceded the final ‘slow’ response given after deliberation. Across our studies, we consistently find that correct final Stroop and Flanker responses are often non-corrective in nature. Good performance in cognitive control tasks seems to be driven by accurate ‘fast’ intuitive processing, rather than by ‘slow’ controlled correction of these intuitions. We also explore the association between Stroop and reasoning performance and discuss implications for the dual process view of human cognition.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"56718073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Judgment and Decision Making
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1