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On the descriptive value of the reliance on small-samples assumption 关于依赖小样本假设的描述性价值
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009311
Ido Erev, Doron Cohen, Ofir Yakobi
Experience is the best teacher. Yet, in the context of repeated decisions, experience was found to trigger deviations from maximization in the direction of underweighting of rare events. Evaluations of alternative explanations for this bias led to contradicting conclusions. Studies that focused on the aggregate choice rates, including a series of choice prediction competitions, favored the assumption that this bias reflects reliance on small samples. In contrast, studies that focused on individual decisions suggest that the bias reflects a strong myopic tendency by a significant minority of participants. The current analysis clarifies the apparent inconsistency by reanalyzing a data set that previously led to contradicting conclusions. Our analysis suggests that the apparent inconsistency reflects the differing focus of the cognitive models. Specifically, sequential adjustment models (that assume sensitivity to the payoffs’ weighted averages) tend to find support for the hypothesis that the deviations from maximization are a product of strong positive recency (a form of myopia). Conversely, models assuming random sampling of past experiences tend to find support to the hypothesis that the deviations reflect reliance on small samples. We propose that the debate should be resolved by using the assumptions that provide better predictions. Applying this solution to the data set we analyzed shows that the random sampling assumption outperforms the weighted average assumption both when predicting the aggregate choice rates and when predicting the individual decisions.
经验是最好的老师。然而,在重复决策的背景下,经验被发现会引发偏离最大化的偏差,朝着减少罕见事件权重的方向发展。对这种偏见的替代解释的评价导致了相互矛盾的结论。关注总选择率的研究,包括一系列选择预测竞赛,支持这样一种假设,即这种偏差反映了对小样本的依赖。相比之下,专注于个人决策的研究表明,这种偏见反映了相当一部分参与者强烈的短视倾向。目前的分析通过重新分析之前导致矛盾结论的数据集,澄清了明显的不一致性。我们的分析表明,明显的不一致反映了认知模型的不同焦点。具体而言,序列调整模型(假设对收益加权平均值的敏感性)倾向于支持这样一种假设,即与最大化的偏差是强正近因(近视的一种形式)的产物。相反,假设对过去经历进行随机抽样的模型往往会支持这样一种假设,即偏差反映了对小样本的依赖。我们建议,应该利用能够提供更好预测的假设来解决这场辩论。将该解决方案应用于我们分析的数据集表明,无论是在预测总体选择率还是在预测个人决策时,随机抽样假设都优于加权平均假设。
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引用次数: 0
Failing to ignore the ignorant: Mistaking ignorance for error 忽视无知:把无知误认为错误
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s193029750000927x
André Vaz, André Mata
Expertise is a reliable cue for accuracy – experts are often correct in their judgments and opinions. However, the opposite is not necessarily the case – ignorant judges are not guaranteed to err. Specifically, in a question with a dichotomous response option, an ignorant responder has a 50% chance of being correct. In five studies, we show that people fail to understand this, and that they overgeneralize a sound heuristic (expertise signals accuracy) to cases where it does not apply (lack of expertise does not imply error). These studies show that people 1) tend to think that the responses of an ignorant person to dichotomous-response questions are more likely to be incorrect than correct, and 2) they tend to respond the opposite of what the ignorant person responded. This research also shows that this bias is at least partially intuitive in nature, as it manifests more clearly in quick gut responses than in slow careful responses. Still, it is not completely corrected upon careful deliberation. Implications are discussed for rationality and epistemic vigilance.
专业知识是准确的可靠线索——专家的判断和意见往往是正确的。然而,情况并不一定相反——无知的法官不一定会犯错。具体来说,在一个有二分回答选项的问题中,无知的回答者有50%的机会是正确的。在五项研究中,我们发现人们无法理解这一点,并且他们将合理的启发式(专业知识表示准确性)过度概括为不适用的情况(缺乏专业知识并不意味着错误)。这些研究表明,人们1)倾向于认为无知者对二分法回答问题的回答更有可能是不正确的,而不是正确的,2)他们的回答往往与无知者的回答相反。这项研究还表明,这种偏见至少在本质上是部分直观的,因为它在快速的肠道反应中比在缓慢的谨慎反应中表现得更清楚。然而,经过仔细考虑,它并没有完全纠正。讨论了理性和认识警惕的含义。
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引用次数: 0
Loss aversion (simply) does not materialize for smaller losses 损失厌恶(简单地)不会因较小的损失而实现
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s193029750000930x
Dana Zeif, E. Yechiam
Loss aversion, the argument that losses are given more weight than gains, has been recently shown to be absent in small losses. However, a series of studies by Mrkva et al. (2020) appear to demonstrate the existence of loss aversion even for smaller losses. We re-ran Mrkva et al.’s decision tasks after removing features of the task that differentiated losses from the gains, particularly asymmetries in sizes of gains and losses, an increasing order of losses, and status quo effects. The results show that we replicate Mrkva et al.’s (2020) findings in their original paradigm with online participants, yet in five studies where gains and losses were symmetrically presented in random order (n = 2,001), we find no loss aversion for small amounts, with loss aversion surfacing very weakly only for average losses of $40 (mean λ = 1.16). We do find loss aversion for higher amounts such as $100 (mean λ = 1.54) though it is not as extreme as previously reported. Furthermore, we find weak correlation between the endowment effect and loss aversion, with the former effect existing simultaneously with no loss aversion. Thus, when items are presented symmetrically, significant loss aversion emerges only for large losses, suggesting that it cannot be argued that (all) “losses loom larger than gains.”
损失厌恶,即损失比收益更重要的论点,最近被证明在小损失中是不存在的。然而,Mrkva等人的一系列研究(2020)似乎证明了即使是较小的损失也存在损失厌恶。我们重新运行Mrkva等人的决策任务,删除了区分损失和收益的任务特征,特别是收益和损失大小的不对称、损失的增加顺序和现状影响。结果表明,我们在网上参与者中复制了Mrkva等人(2020)在其原始范式中的发现,但在五项收益和损失以随机顺序对称呈现的研究中(n=2001),我们没有发现少量的损失厌恶,损失厌恶情绪只在平均损失40美元(平均λ=1.16)时表现得很弱。我们确实发现,对更高金额的损失厌恶情绪,如100美元(平均值λ=1.54),尽管它没有之前报道的那么极端。此外,我们发现禀赋效应与损失厌恶之间的相关性较弱,前者与无损失厌恶同时存在。因此,当项目对称呈现时,只有大额损失才会出现显著的损失厌恶情绪,这表明不能认为(所有)“损失大于收益”
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引用次数: 4
Sample decisions with description and experience 具有描述和经验的示例决策
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009360
Ronald Klingebiel, Feibai Zhu
Decision makers weight small probabilities differently when sampling them and when seeing them stated. We disentangle to what extent the gap is due to how decision makers receive information (through description or experience), the literature’s prevailing focus, and what information they receive (population probabilities or sample frequencies), our novel explanation. The latter determines statistical confidence, the extent to which one can know that a choice is superior in expectation. Two lab studies, as well as a review of prior work, reveal sample decisions to respond to statistical confidence. More strongly, in fact, than decisions based on population probabilities, leading to higher payoffs in expectation. Our research thus not only offers a more robust method for identifying description-experience gaps. It also reveals how probability weighting in decisions based on samples — the typical format of real-world decisions — may actually come closer to an unbiased ideal than decisions based on fully specified probabilities — the format frequently used in decision science.
决策者在对小概率进行抽样时和在看到它们陈述时对其进行不同的加权。我们理清了这种差距在多大程度上是由于决策者如何接收信息(通过描述或经验)、文献的主要焦点以及他们接收到的信息(群体概率或样本频率),这是我们的新颖解释。后者决定了统计置信度,即人们可以在多大程度上知道一个选择在预期中是优越的。两项实验室研究以及对先前工作的回顾揭示了样本决策对统计置信度的反应。事实上,这比基于总体概率的决策更有力,导致了更高的预期回报。因此,我们的研究不仅为识别描述经验差距提供了一种更稳健的方法。它还揭示了基于样本的决策(现实世界决策的典型格式)中的概率加权实际上可能比基于完全指定概率的决策(决策科学中经常使用的格式)更接近无偏的理想。
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引用次数: 0
The endowment effect in the future: How time shapes buying and selling prices 未来的禀赋效应:时间如何影响买卖价格
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009293
Shohei Yamamoto, D. Navarro-Martinez
Previous research has focused on studying the endowment effect for transactions that take place in the present. Many real-world transactions, however, are delayed into the future (i.e., people agree to buy or sell, but the actual transaction does not materialize until a later time). Here we investigate how transaction timing affects the endowment effect. In five studies, we show that the endowment effect systematically increases as transactions are delayed into the future. Specifically, buying prices significantly decrease as the transaction is delayed, while selling prices remain constant, resulting in an amplified endowment effect (Experiment 1). This pattern is not produced by a discounting of the money involved in the transaction (Experiment 2), and it holds across different types of items (Experiment 3). We also show that the phenomenon cannot be explained by sellers anticipating becoming increasingly attached to the items over time (Experiment 4). Finally, we demonstrate that this increased endowment effect in the future holds in the field, in the context of a real market and with real transactions (Experiment 5).
以往的研究主要集中在研究当前发生的交易的禀赋效应。然而,许多现实世界的交易被推迟到未来(即,人们同意购买或出售,但实际交易直到以后才实现)。本文研究了交易时机对禀赋效应的影响。在五项研究中,我们表明,禀赋效应系统性地随着交易推迟到未来而增加。具体来说,随着交易的延迟,购买价格显著下降,而销售价格保持不变,导致禀赋效应被放大(实验1)。这种模式不是由交易中涉及的资金的折扣产生的(实验2),它适用于不同类型的物品(实验3)。我们还表明,这种现象不能用卖家预期随着时间的推移会越来越依恋这些物品来解释(实验4)。我们证明,在真实市场和真实交易的背景下,未来这种增加的禀赋效应在该领域成立(实验5)。
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引用次数: 1
Pledging one’s trustworthiness through gifts: An experiment 通过礼物保证自己的可信度:一项实验
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009359
G. Danese, L. Mittone
Ethnographers have recorded many instances of tokens donated as gifts to attract new partners or strengthen ties to existing ones. We study whether gifts are an effective pledge of the donor’s trustworthiness through an experiment modeled on the trust game. We vary whether the trustee can send a token before the trustor decides whether to transfer money; whether one of the tokens is rendered salient through experimental manipulations (a vote or an incentive-compatible rule of purchase for the tokens); and whether the subjects interact repeatedly or are randomly re-matched in each round. Tokens are frequently sent in all studies in which tokens are available, but repeated interaction, rather than gifts, is the leading behavioral driver in our data. In the studies with random pairs, trustors send significantly more points when the trustee has sent a token. Subjects in a fixed matching achieve comparable levels of trust and trustworthiness in the studies with and without tokens. The trustee’s decision to send a token is not predictive of the amount the trustee returns to the trustor. A token is used more sparingly whenever salient — a novel instance of endogenous value creation in the lab.
民族志学家记录了许多代币作为礼物捐赠的例子,以吸引新的合作伙伴或加强与现有合作伙伴的联系。我们通过一个建立在信任游戏模型上的实验来研究礼物是否是捐赠者可信度的有效保证。在委托人决定是否转账之前,我们会改变受托人是否可以发送代币;代币中的一个是否通过实验操作(代币的投票或激励兼容的购买规则)而变得显著;以及受试者在每一轮中是重复互动还是随机重新匹配。在所有有代币的研究中,代币都经常被发送,但重复的互动而不是礼物是我们数据中的主要行为驱动因素。在随机配对的研究中,当受托人发送了令牌时,委托人发送的点数明显更多。在有标记和没有标记的研究中,固定匹配的受试者获得了可比的信任和可信度。受托人发送代币的决定并不能预测受托人向委托人返还的金额。每当显著时,代币的使用就会更加谨慎——这是实验室内生价值创造的一个新颖例子。
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引用次数: 0
Voting under time pressure 时间压力下的投票
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009335
Carlos Alós-Ferrer, Michele Garagnani
In a controlled laboratory experiment we investigate whether time pressure influences voting decisions, and in particular the degree of strategic (insincere) voting. We find that participants under time constraints are more sincere when using the widely-employed Plurality Voting method. That is, time pressure might reduce strategic voting and hence misrepresentation of preferences. However, there are no effects for Approval Voting, in line with arguments that this method provides no incentives for strategic voting.
在一个受控的实验室实验中,我们调查了时间压力是否会影响投票决定,特别是策略性(不真诚)投票的程度。我们发现,在时间限制下,参与者在使用广泛使用的多元投票方法时更真诚。也就是说,时间压力可能会减少战略投票,从而减少对偏好的歪曲。然而,批准投票没有影响,这与这种方法没有为战略投票提供激励的论点一致。
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引用次数: 0
Does boredom affect economic risk preferences? 无聊会影响经济风险偏好吗?
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009347
Sergio Pirla, D. Navarro-Martinez
Previous literature and conventional wisdom have led researchers to believe that boredom increases economic risk taking, but the evidence in support of this conclusion is limited and has important shortcomings. In four experiments (including more than 1,300 subjects), we systematically studied the effects of boredom on economic risk preferences. Across different risk elicitation tasks, boredom inductions, incentive schemes, subject pools, and using both reduced form and structural analyses, we consistently failed to find an effect of boredom on risky decisions. Our results disprove that boredom leads to even small increments in risk taking in one-shot elicitation tasks, and small to medium increases in multiple-choice elicitations. These findings question an important established belief, contribute to better understand the consequences of boredom, and have substantive implications for experiments on economic decision making.
先前的文献和传统智慧使研究人员相信无聊会增加经济风险,但支持这一结论的证据有限,而且存在重要缺陷。在四个实验中(包括1300多名受试者),我们系统地研究了无聊对经济风险偏好的影响。在不同的风险诱导任务、无聊诱导、激励计划、主题库中,以及使用简化形式和结构分析,我们始终未能发现无聊对风险决策的影响。我们的研究结果证明,无聊会导致一次性启发任务中风险承担的小幅增加,而多项选择启发的小幅增加到中等程度。这些发现质疑了一个重要的既定信念,有助于更好地理解无聊的后果,并对经济决策实验具有实质性意义。
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引用次数: 0
Perception of generosity under matching and rebate subsidies 匹配和回扣补贴下的慷慨感
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009323
Nathan W. Chan, S. Knowles, R. Peeters, L. Wolk
Existing evidence from laboratory experiments finds that a match is likely to increase charitable donations by more than a theoretically equivalent rebate. A number of explanations have been proposed for this in the literature. One idea, which has never been tested, is that people consider a match to be more generous, because unlike the rebate, there is no reward for making a donation in the match setting. We design a survey to determine whether people do consider matches more generous than rebates, and probe the reasons subjects give for their answers. We find that a significant number of people do consider rebates less generous because of the reward associated with donations in such a setting.
实验室实验的现有证据表明,一场比赛可能会使慈善捐款增加理论上相当的回扣。文献中对此提出了许多解释。一个从未经过测试的想法是,人们认为比赛更慷慨,因为与回扣不同,在比赛中捐款没有奖励。我们设计了一项调查,以确定人们是否认为匹配比回扣更慷慨,并调查受试者给出答案的原因。我们发现,相当多的人确实认为回扣不那么慷慨,因为在这种情况下,与捐赠相关的奖励。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of a reference point in task difficulty: How does a task that becomes irrelevant affect effort, feelings and perceptions 参考点对任务难度的影响:任务变得不相关如何影响努力、感觉和感知
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008949
Alisa Voslinsky, Ofer H. Azar
We examine the effect of an irrelevant task that may become a reference point on subjects’ effort, feelings and perceptions. All subjects complete up to 25 tasks and are paid $0.10 per task solved correctly. However, some subjects have an easy task of finding one letter and others have a hard task of finding two letters. In the irrelevant-task treatment conditions subjects are told about the two types of tasks and are then assigned randomly to one. In addition, there are two control conditions, and in each control condition subjects are assigned to a specific task without the other task being possible or mentioned. Subjects in the irrelevant-task treatments express more positive (negative) feelings when assigned to the easy (hard) task. The control conditions that have no reference point of another task are in between the two irrelevant-task treatments in the feeling ratings. We hypothesized that for a given task, the subjects in the experimental conditions that have more positive feelings will also solve more tasks, but this hypothesis was not supported by the data. Finally, subjects who receive the easy task complete more tasks than the ones with the hard task.
我们研究了一项无关任务的影响,该任务可能成为受试者努力、感受和感知的参考点。所有受试者最多完成25项任务,正确解决每项任务可获得0.10美元的报酬。然而,有些受试者很容易找到一个字母,而另一些受试者则很难找到两个字母。在不相关的任务处理条件下,受试者被告知两种类型的任务,然后被随机分配到其中一种。此外,有两个控制条件,在每个控制条件下,受试者被分配到一个特定的任务,而另一个任务是可能的或不被提及。不相关任务处理中的受试者在被分配到简单(困难)任务时表现出更积极(消极)的感觉。在感觉评级中,没有另一个任务的参考点的控制条件处于两个不相关的任务处理之间。我们假设,对于给定的任务,在实验条件下有更积极感受的受试者也会解决更多的任务,但这一假设没有得到数据的支持。最后,接受简单任务的受试者比接受困难任务的受测者完成更多的任务。
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引用次数: 0
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Judgment and Decision Making
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