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Judgment and Decision Making最新文献

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Reasoning and cognitive control, fast and slow 推理和认知控制,快和慢
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.32
Aikaterini Voudouri, Bence Bagó, G. Borst, Wim De Neys
Influential ‘fast-and-slow’ dual process models suggest that sound reasoning requires the correction of fast, intuitive thought processes by slower, controlled deliberation. Recent findings with high-level reasoning tasks started to question this characterization. Here we tested the generalizability of these findings to low-level cognitive control tasks. More specifically, we examined whether people who responded accurately to the classic Stroop and Flanker tasks could also do so when their deliberate control was minimized. A two-response paradigm, in which people were required to give an initial ‘fast’ response under time–pressure and cognitive load, allowed us to identify the presumed intuitive answer that preceded the final ‘slow’ response given after deliberation. Across our studies, we consistently find that correct final Stroop and Flanker responses are often non-corrective in nature. Good performance in cognitive control tasks seems to be driven by accurate ‘fast’ intuitive processing, rather than by ‘slow’ controlled correction of these intuitions. We also explore the association between Stroop and reasoning performance and discuss implications for the dual process view of human cognition.
有影响力的“快慢”双重过程模型表明,合理的推理需要通过较慢的、有控制的思考来纠正快速、直觉的思维过程。最近对高级推理任务的研究结果开始质疑这种特征。在这里,我们测试了这些发现在低水平认知控制任务中的普遍性。更具体地说,我们研究了那些对经典的Stroop和Flanker任务做出准确反应的人,在刻意控制最小化时是否也能做到这一点。在双反应范式中,人们被要求在时间压力和认知负荷下给出最初的“快速”反应,这使我们能够在深思熟虑后给出最终的“缓慢”反应之前确定假定的直觉答案。在我们的研究中,我们始终发现正确的Stroop和Flanker最终反应通常是非纠正性的。在认知控制任务中的良好表现似乎是由准确的“快速”直觉处理驱动的,而不是由这些直觉的“缓慢”控制纠正驱动的。我们还探讨了Stroop与推理表现之间的关系,并讨论了人类认知的双重过程观的含义。
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引用次数: 0
Magical contagion beliefs operate in reactions of Americans to COVID-19 神奇的传染信念在美国人对COVID-19的反应中起作用
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.4
P. Rozin
We assessed the reaction of American adults to scenarios involving explicit types of exposure to live COVID viruses in June 2020, in the first months of the COVID pandemic. Four features of magical contagion are physical contact focus, insensitivity to elapsed time (‘permanence’), insensitivity to sterilization (‘spiritual essence’), and insensitivity to dose. We demonstrated the operation of all four features in a majority of participants. We also report another dramatic demonstration of the principle of dose insensitivity. When asked for the minimal number of COVID viruses that would have to enter their lung to give them a 50% chance of contracting COVID, more than half of subjects responded with ‘one’. Magical contagion should generally function to increase fear and perceived risk of COVID.
我们评估了2020年6月,即COVID大流行的头几个月,美国成年人对涉及明确类型的COVID活病毒暴露的情景的反应。魔法传染的四个特征是物理接触焦点,对流逝的时间不敏感(“永久性”),对灭菌不敏感(“精神本质”),对剂量不敏感。我们向大多数参与者演示了所有四个功能的操作。我们还报告了剂量不敏感原理的另一个戏剧性的证明。当被问及要使他们有50%的机会感染新冠病毒,必须进入肺部的最小病毒数量时,超过一半的受试者回答“一个”。神奇传染通常会增加人们对COVID的恐惧和感知风险。
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引用次数: 0
Virtual reality for philanthropy: A promising tool to innovate fundraising – CORRIGENDUM 慈善事业的虚拟现实:创新筹款的有前途的工具-勘误
3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.35
Nina M. Sooter, Giuseppe Ugazio
An abstract is not available for this content. As you have access to this content, full HTML content is provided on this page. A PDF of this content is also available in through the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
此内容没有摘要。当您可以访问此内容时,该页上会提供完整的HTML内容。此内容的PDF也可以通过“保存PDF”操作按钮获得。
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引用次数: 0
Choosing more aggressive commitment contracts for others than for the self 为他人而不是自己选择更具侵略性的承诺契约
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.1
Craig I. Brimhall, David Tannenbaum, Eric M. VanEpps
Commitment contracts are a strategy for binding self-control failures, such as skipping a gym visit or breaking a dieting regime, to monetary penalties. Despite evidence that commitment contracts with stronger penalties improve self-control, they are relatively underused. Across 5 experiments, we find that decision makers are less likely to select commitment contracts with more severe penalties (i.e., anti-charity contracts) for themselves than they are for others. This self-other difference in contract choice arises because decision makers believe anti-charity contracts will be more effective for others than for themselves. Our results suggest that people recognize the potential effectiveness of using more aggressive commitment contracts to overcome self-control problems, but view themselves as an exception to that general rule.
承诺合同是一种约束自我控制失败的策略,比如不去健身房或打破节食计划,并对其进行罚款。尽管有证据表明,惩罚力度更大的承诺契约能提高自制力,但它们的使用相对不足。在5个实验中,我们发现决策者不太可能为自己选择惩罚更严厉的承诺合同(即反慈善合同),而不是为他人选择。这种契约选择中的自我-他人差异之所以产生,是因为决策者认为反慈善契约对他人比对自己更有效。我们的研究结果表明,人们认识到使用更具侵略性的承诺契约来克服自我控制问题的潜在有效性,但却将自己视为这一普遍规律的例外。
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引用次数: 0
Fairness is based on quality, not just quantity 公平的基础是质量,而不仅仅是数量
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.20
J. Zenkić, Kobe Millet, N. Mead
According to decades of research, whether negotiations succeed depends on how much of the stake each person will get. Yet, real-world stakes often consist of resources that vary on quality, not just quantity. While it may appear obvious that people should reject qualitatively inferior offers, just as they reject quantitatively unequal offers, it is less clear why. Across three incentive-compatible studies (N = 1,303) using the ultimatum game, we evaluate three possible reasons for why people reject qualitatively unequal negotiation offers (that are 50% of the stake): fairness, mere inequality, or badness. Data across the three studies are consistent with the fairness account. Casting doubt on the possibility that people reject qualitatively unequal offers merely because they are ‘bad’, Studies 1 and 2 found that participants were more likely to reject the same coins when these were inferior (e.g., 200 × 5¢ coins) to the negotiation partner’s coins (e.g., 5 × $2 coins) than when both parties received the same undesirable coins (e.g., both received 200 × 5¢ coins). Supporting a fairness explanation, rejection rates of the qualitatively inferior offer were higher when the proposal came from a human (vs. a computer), suggesting that rejection stemmed in part from a desire to punish the negotiation partner for unfair treatment (Study 3). Nevertheless, some participants still rejected the unequal offer from a computer, suggesting that mere inequality matters as well. In sum, the findings highlight that quality, not just quantity, is important for attaining fair negotiation outcomes.
根据几十年的研究,谈判是否成功取决于每个人将获得多少股份。然而,现实世界的利害关系往往是由质量不同的资源组成的,而不仅仅是数量。虽然很明显,人们应该拒绝质量上较差的提议,就像他们拒绝数量上不平等的提议一样,但原因却不太清楚。在三个激励相容的研究(N = 1303)中,我们使用最后通牒游戏,评估了人们拒绝质量上不平等的谈判提议(占50%的股份)的三个可能原因:公平、纯粹的不平等或糟糕。这三项研究的数据都与公平理论相一致。研究1和研究2对人们仅仅因为“不好”而拒绝质量不平等提议的可能性提出了质疑,研究1和研究2发现,当这些硬币(例如,200 × 5美分的硬币)比谈判伙伴的硬币(例如,5 × 2美元的硬币)低劣时,参与者更有可能拒绝同样的硬币(例如,双方都收到了200 × 5美分的硬币)。为了支持公平的解释,当提议来自人类(而不是计算机)时,质量较差的提议的拒绝率更高,这表明拒绝部分源于惩罚谈判伙伴不公平待遇的愿望(研究3)。然而,一些参与者仍然拒绝了来自计算机的不平等提议,这表明仅仅不平等也很重要。总而言之,研究结果强调了质量,而不仅仅是数量,对于获得公平的谈判结果很重要。
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引用次数: 0
Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions 比较输入接口以引出信念分布
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.21
Paolo Crosetto, Thomas de Haan
This paper introduces a new software interface to elicit belief distributions of any shape: Click-and-Drag. The interface was tested against the state of the art in the experimental literature—a text-based interface and multiple sliders—and in the online forecasting industry—a distribution-manipulation interface similar to the one used by the most popular crowd-forecasting website. By means of a pre-registered experiment on Amazon Mechanical Turk, quantitative data on the accuracy of reported beliefs in a series of induced-value scenarios varying by granularity, shape, and time constraints, as well as subjective data on user experience were collected. Click-and-Drag outperformed all other interfaces by accuracy and speed, and was self-reported as being more intuitive and less frustrating, confirming the pre-registered hypothesis. Aside of the pre-registered results, Click-and-Drag generated the least drop-out rate from the task, and scored best in a sentiment analysis of an open-ended general question. Further, the interface was used to collect homegrown predictions on temperature in New York City in 2022 and 2042. Click-and-Drag elicited distributions were smoother with less idiosyncratic spikes. Free and open source, ready to use oTree, Qualtrics and Limesurvey plugins for Click-and-Drag, and all other tested interfaces are available at https://beliefelicitation.github.io/.
本文介绍了一种新的软件界面,以获得任何形状的信念分布:点击和拖动。这个界面是针对实验文献中最先进的技术——基于文本的界面和多个滑块——以及在线预测行业中的分布操纵界面进行测试的——类似于最流行的人群预测网站所使用的界面。通过在Amazon Mechanical Turk上进行预注册实验,收集了一系列不同粒度、形状和时间约束的诱导值场景中报告信念准确性的定量数据,以及用户体验的主观数据。点击-拖动界面在准确性和速度上都优于其他所有界面,而且自述更直观,更不令人沮丧,证实了之前的假设。除了预先登记的结果外,点击-拖动产生的任务退出率最低,并且在开放式一般问题的情绪分析中得分最高。此外,该界面还用于收集纽约市2022年和2042年的本地温度预测。点击-拖动引发的分布更平滑,没有那么特殊的峰值。免费和开源,随时可以使用oTree, qualics和Limesurvey插件的点击和拖动,以及所有其他测试界面可在https://beliefelicitation.github.io/。
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引用次数: 1
Contextual effects in salary satisfaction 薪酬满意度的语境效应
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.26
M. Birnbaum, Julien Rouvere
This article reports a series of studies of judgments of satisfaction with salary, manipulating the distribution of salaries of others doing the same work. The experiments were designed to compare 6 theories of contextual effects in judgment, including adaptation-level theory, correlation–regression theory, inferred distribution (ID) theory, decision by sampling (DbS), ensemble (EN) theory, and range–frequency (RF) theory. Manipulations of the frequency distribution using cubic density functions produce a double crossover of curves relating judgments to salaries; this double crossover violates implications of 4 of the theories but remains consistent with DbS and RF theories. ID theory assumes that rank is inferred from the mean and endpoints, so it fails to describe the double crossover. Manipulations of the endpoints produce changes in the heights and slopes of the curves, which are not explained by DbS and are partially inconsistent with EN theory. EN theory implies no effect of the rank of a salary and assumes that endpoints only affect judgments of salaries on the same side of the mean, contrary to the results. RF theory implies that ratings of stimuli holding the same ranks in 2 contexts with differing endpoints should be linearly related, and the data appeared consistent with this implication. RF theory is the only theory that gives a consistent account of all of the results. RF theory can be extended in order to estimate the effective context, which appears to differ systematically between people according to their full-time incomes.
本文报道了一系列关于工资满意度判断的研究,操纵其他人做同样的工作的工资分配。实验旨在比较6种判断情境效应理论,包括适应水平理论、相关回归理论、推断分布理论、抽样决策理论、集合理论和距离-频率理论。使用三次密度函数操纵频率分布会产生与工资判断有关的曲线的双重交叉;这种双重交叉违反了其中4个理论的含义,但与DbS和RF理论保持一致。ID理论假设秩是从均值和端点推断出来的,因此它无法描述双交叉。对端点的操纵会产生曲线的高度和斜率的变化,这是DbS无法解释的,并且部分与EN理论不一致。EN理论暗示工资的等级没有影响,并假设端点只影响平均水平同一侧的工资判断,与结果相反。RF理论表明,在不同终点的两种情境中,具有相同等级的刺激的评级应该是线性相关的,数据似乎与这一含义一致。射频理论是唯一能对所有结果给出一致解释的理论。射频理论可以扩展,以估计有效背景,这似乎是不同的人之间的系统根据他们的全职收入。
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引用次数: 0
Connecting the dots: Nonlinear patterns in the presence of symbolic and nonsymbolic numerical standards 连接点:存在符号和非符号数值标准的非线性模式
3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.31
Roland Imhoff, Paul Barker
Abstract Much like other social and nonsocial evaluations, estimates of numerical quantities are susceptible to comparative influences. However, numerical representations can take either a nonsymbolic (e.g., a grouping of dots) or a symbolic numerical form (e.g., Hindu–Arabic numerals), which each produce comparative biases in opposite directions. The current work takes a fine-grained curve fitting approach across a wide range of values to the investigation of their potential nonlinear influence in the context of a numerical estimation task. A series of 3 experiments ( N = 1,613) showed how nonsymbolic standards produce linear contrastive patterns (Study 1), whereas symbolic numerical anchors show a cubic assimilative effect with a leveling off in strength for more extreme standards (Study 2). Sequential contrast from the previous patterns and assimilation to the previous response were found to be present and additive in the presence of both representations but were larger in absence of the symbolic numerical anchors (Study 3).
与其他社会和非社会评价一样,对数字数量的估计也容易受到比较影响。然而,数字表示可以采用非符号形式(例如,一组点)或符号数字形式(例如,印度-阿拉伯数字),每一种形式都会产生相反方向的比较偏差。目前的工作采用细粒度曲线拟合方法,在广泛的数值范围内研究它们在数值估计任务背景下的潜在非线性影响。一系列的3个实验(N = 1,613)显示了非符号标准如何产生线性对比模式(研究1),而符号数字锚显示出立方同化效应,在更极端的标准下,其强度趋于平稳(研究2)。我们发现,在两种表征存在的情况下,从先前模式和同化到先前反应的顺序对比是存在的,并且是可加的,但在没有符号数字锚的情况下,这种对比更大(研究3)。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging the gap between the economics lab and the field: Dictator games and donations 弥合经济学实验室和实际领域之间的鸿沟:独裁者游戏和捐赠
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.19
Xinghua Wang, D. Navarro-Martinez
There is growing concern about the extent to which economic games played in the laboratory generalize to social behaviors outside the lab. Here, we show that it is possible to make a game much more predictive of field behavior by bringing contextual elements from the field to the lab. We report three experiments where we present the same participants with different versions of the dictator game and with two different field situations. The games are designed to include elements that make them progressively more similar to the field. We find a dramatic increase in lab–field correlations as contextual elements are incorporated, which has wide-ranging implications for experiments on economic decision making.
越来越多的人担心,在实验室中进行的经济博弈在多大程度上可以推广到实验室之外的社会行为。在这里,我们表明,通过将情境元素从现场带到实验室,可以使游戏更能预测现场行为。我们报告了三个实验,在这些实验中,我们向相同的参与者展示了不同版本的独裁者游戏和两种不同的现场情况。这些游戏的设计包含了一些元素,使它们逐渐与该领域更加相似。我们发现,随着上下文因素的纳入,实验室领域的相关性急剧增加,这对经济决策的实验具有广泛的影响。
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引用次数: 2
A longitudinal analysis of the hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases 热手和赌徒谬误偏差的纵向分析
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/jdm.2023.23
Brian A. Polin, Eyal Benisaac
Researchers have found evidence of both hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases in lottery number selection. Which of the two opposite effects is observed is often dependent upon the nature of the lottery game, the particular sample, the local culture of the participants, or the time transpired since the seed event. By observing hundreds of millions of lottery entries over 118 consecutive semiweekly drawings, we present evidence of both effects and their longitudinal properties. With respect to the selection of individual numbers, lottery participants tend to avoid recently selected winning numbers. This gambler’s fallacy effect diminishes and the number becomes increasingly ‘hot’ until it is selected again. With respect to winning number combinations, we found strong evidence of a small but persistent hot hand bias. This bias gradually diminishes over time, but remains detectable and highly consistent for a number of years.
研究人员在彩票号码选择中发现了热手和赌徒谬误偏见的证据。观察到的两种相反影响中的哪一种通常取决于彩票游戏的性质、特定样本、参与者的当地文化或种子事件发生后的时间。通过观察118个连续半周抽奖的数亿彩票条目,我们提出了这两种效应及其纵向特性的证据。就个人号码的选择而言,彩票参与者倾向于避免最近选择的中奖号码。这种赌徒的谬论效应减弱,数字变得越来越“热”,直到它再次被选中。关于获胜的数字组合,我们发现了强有力的证据,表明存在小而持久的热手偏见。随着时间的推移,这种偏差逐渐减少,但仍可检测到,并在数年内保持高度一致。
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引用次数: 0
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Judgment and Decision Making
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