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Government affiliation, analyst behavior and the economic consequences 政府隶属关系、分析师行为和经济后果
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12839
Ning Jia, Tianqi Lan, Dan Wang, Ma Xiaoteng

A significant number of regional brokerage firms in China are owned by their respective local governments. We use this context to examine how local government affiliation affects brokerage firms’ research activities. Using a sample of analyst reports from 2013 to 2021, we find that analysts working at local government-affiliated brokerage firms are more likely to cover firms within the local government's jurisdiction than non-affiliated analysts. Local government-affiliated analysts enjoy an information advantage, as evidenced by the issuance of more accurate earnings forecasts for local firms, compared to those of non-affiliated analysts. The effect is stronger for local firms with lower information quality. Additionally, local government-affiliated analysts show more optimism in stock recommendations, but not in earnings forecasts, for local firms, compared to non-affiliated analysts. The effect is more pronounced for local firms that receive more local government subsidies, operate in regions with greater local government intervention or during the COVID-19 pandemic and the National Congress conferences, and require more capital market support. The results of this study advance our understanding of the key determinants of analyst performance and provide new evidence in the debate on the role of government intervention in financial institutions.

中国有相当数量的区域性经纪公司由各自的地方政府所有。我们利用这一背景来考察地方政府隶属关系如何影响经纪公司的研究活动。使用2013年至2021年的分析师报告样本,我们发现在地方政府附属经纪公司工作的分析师比非附属分析师更有可能覆盖地方政府管辖范围内的公司。地方政府下属的分析师享有信息优势,与非政府下属的分析师相比,他们对地方企业的盈利预测更为准确。对于信息质量较低的本土企业,这种效应更强。此外,与非政府关联的分析师相比,与地方政府有关联的分析师在推荐本地公司股票方面表现得更为乐观,但在盈利预测方面则并非如此。对于获得地方政府补贴较多、在地方政府干预力度较大的地区或在新冠肺炎大流行和全国人大会议期间经营、需要更多资本市场支持的地方企业,这种影响更为明显。本研究的结果促进了我们对分析师绩效的关键决定因素的理解,并为政府干预金融机构的作用的辩论提供了新的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Interest rate liberalization and corporate innovation: Evidence from natural experiments in China 利率市场化与企业创新:来自中国自然实验的证据
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12838
Shuangli Yu, Yun Ke, Xiaofeng Quan, Wenhong Ding

We examine whether and how interest rate liberalization affects corporate innovation in China. Using the removal of the interest rate ceiling and floor as exogenous shocks, and the numbers of granted patents to proxy for corporate innovation, we find that corporate innovation increases after interest rate liberalization. Our finding holds through several robustness tests. Furthermore, we show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs benefit from interest rate liberalization differently: Non-SOEs benefit more from interest rate ceiling removal, whereas SOEs benefit more from interest rate floor removal. Cross-sectional analyses also show that the effect is more pronounced when bank competition is higher and when firms rely more on external finance. Exploring potential channels through which interest rate liberalization spurs innovation, we find that although ceiling removal mitigates firms’ financial constraints, floor removal lowers corporate loan costs. Our study provides evidence of how financial reform benefits the real economy.

本文研究了利率市场化是否以及如何影响中国的企业创新。以取消利率上限和下限为外生冲击,以专利授权数代表企业创新,我们发现利率市场化后企业创新增加。我们的发现通过几个稳健性测试成立。此外,我们发现国有企业和非国有企业从利率市场化中获益不同:非国有企业从取消利率上限中获益更多,而国有企业从取消利率下限中获益更多。横断面分析还表明,当银行竞争更激烈、企业更依赖外部融资时,这种影响更为明显。在探索利率市场化刺激创新的潜在渠道时,我们发现尽管取消上限缓解了企业的财务约束,但取消下限降低了企业的贷款成本。我们的研究为金融改革如何惠及实体经济提供了证据。
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引用次数: 0
The management of nonearnings measures: Evidence from initial public offering firms 非盈利指标的管理:来自首次公开发行公司的证据
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12837
Snow Xue Han, Su-Jane Hsieh

Inconsistent with the conventional view that initial public offering firms (IPOs) manage earnings upward to boost offering prices, we posit that IPOs, which are usually in the early stage of their life cycle, focus on sales growth. Using quarterly analyses, we find that both high-tech and non-high-tech IPOs opportunistically manage sales upward in the pre-IPO period. While high-tech IPOs manage sales upward via premature revenue recognition and activities-sales management, non-high-tech IPOs only engage in premature revenue recognition practice. Moreover, both subgroups spend aggressively on discretionary expenses during the pre-IPO period. However, the two subgroups differ in their manipulation of earnings and R&D. Intangible-intensive high-tech IPOs not only do not engage in upward accruals earnings management but also exhibit income-decreasing behavior through intensive R&D spending in the pre-IPO period. In contrast, non-high-tech IPOs incur significant abnormal accruals to opportunistically inflate earnings in the lockup period but do not engage in aggressive R&D spending. Finally, we find subsequent operating performance reversal among IPOs engaged in earnings and nonearnings manipulation except for activities-sales management.

传统观点认为,首次公开募股公司(IPO)通过提高盈利来提高发行价格,与此不同,我们认为,通常处于生命周期早期的 IPO 公司更关注销售额的增长。通过季度分析,我们发现高科技和非高科技 IPO 都会在上市前择机上调销售额。高科技 IPO 通过过早确认收入和活动销售管理来提高销售额,而非高科技 IPO 则只采取过早确认收入的做法。此外,两类公司在上市前都会积极支出可自由支配的费用。然而,这两个亚群在操纵收益和研发方面有所不同。无形密集型高科技 IPO 不仅不进行向上应计收益管理,而且在上市前还通过密集的研发支出表现出减少收入的行为。与此相反,非高科技 IPO 在锁定期会产生大量异常应计项目,以伺机抬高收益,但并不参与激进的研发支出。最后,我们发现,除了活动-销售管理外,参与盈利和非盈利操纵的 IPO 公司随后的经营业绩会发生逆转。
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引用次数: 0
Out-of-sample predictability of firm-specific stock price crashes: A machine learning approach 特定公司股价暴跌的样本外可预测性:机器学习方法
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12831
Devrimi Kaya, Doron Reichmann, Milan Reichmann

We use machine learning methods to predict firm-specific stock price crashes and evaluate the out-of-sample prediction performance of various methods, compared to traditional regression approaches. Using financial and textual data from 10-K filings, our results show that a logistic regression with financial data inputs performs reasonably well and sometimes outperforms newer classifiers such as random forests and neural networks. However, we find that a stochastic gradient boosting model systematically outperforms the logistic regression, and forecasts using suitable combinations of financial and textual data inputs yield significantly higher prediction performance. Overall, the evidence suggests that machine learning methods can help predict stock price crashes.

我们使用机器学习方法预测特定公司的股价暴跌,并评估各种方法与传统回归方法相比的样本外预测性能。我们使用 10-K 申报文件中的财务和文本数据,结果表明,使用财务数据输入的逻辑回归表现相当不错,有时甚至优于随机森林和神经网络等较新的分类器。不过,我们发现随机梯度提升模型的表现明显优于逻辑回归,而且使用财务数据和文本数据输入的适当组合进行预测,其预测性能也明显高于逻辑回归。总体而言,证据表明机器学习方法有助于预测股价暴跌。
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引用次数: 0
How does audit quality affect firm innovation? Evidence from China 审计质量如何影响企业创新?来自中国的证据
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12836
Charles Hsu, Chaopeng Wu, Zehao Yan, Ruichao Zhu

Existing research based on the US setting suggests that high-quality audits impede firm innovation by inducing managerial myopia that leads managers to sacrifice innovative activities. We extend this literature by examining the impact of audit quality on firm innovation in a major emerging market, China. Given the weak institutional environments in China, we posit that increases in audit quality enhance firm innovation by facilitating firms’ external financing abilities and promoting managers’ innovation efforts. Consistent with our predictions, we find that increased audit quality due to “switching” to BigN auditors after auditor mergers significantly improves firms’ innovation quantity and quality. We further find that increases in audit quality impact firm innovation by increasing external financing and motivating both internal and external investment in innovation. Overall, our results indicate that audit quality has a positive governance effect on firms’ real decisions in a major economy with weak legal environments.

基于美国背景的现有研究表明,高质量的审计会诱发管理近视,导致管理者牺牲创新活动,从而阻碍企业创新。我们通过研究审计质量对中国这一主要新兴市场中企业创新的影响,对这一文献进行了扩展。鉴于中国薄弱的制度环境,我们假设审计质量的提高会促进企业的外部融资能力并推动管理者的创新努力,从而增强企业的创新能力。与我们的预测一致,我们发现,审计师合并后 "转向 "BigN审计师所带来的审计质量的提高显著提高了企业创新的数量和质量。我们进一步发现,审计质量的提高通过增加外部融资和激励内外部创新投资来影响企业创新。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,在一个法律环境薄弱的主要经济体中,审计质量对企业的实际决策具有积极的治理效应。
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引用次数: 0
Top management team incentive dispersion and management earnings forecasts 高层管理团队激励分散与管理层盈利预测
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12833
Rachana Kalelkar, Yuan Shi, Hongkang Xu

We investigate whether heterogeneity in pay-performance sensitivity (PPS) among top management team (TMT) members affects management earnings forecasts (MEFs). Extant studies find that dispersion of PPS among TMT members results in a lack of coordination among TMT members and has a significant consequence for the firm. Since the issuance of forecasts is jointly determined by TMT managers, we argue that heterogeneity in PPS among TMT members will affect forecast issuance. We find that firms are less likely to issue MEFs when PPS dispersion among TMT members is high. Moreover, the forecasts of these firms are less optimistic. Finally, our analyses reveal that the effect of dispersion of PPS among TMT members on MEFs is more pronounced when the difference in PPS between the chief executive officer and other executives is high or team tenure is short. Overall, our results suggest that heterogeneity in PPS among TMT members affects a firm's voluntary disclosures.

我们研究了高层管理团队(TMT)成员之间薪酬绩效敏感性(PPS)的异质性是否会影响管理层盈利预测(MEF)。现有研究发现,高层管理团队成员之间薪酬绩效敏感度的差异会导致高层管理团队成员之间缺乏协调,并对公司产生重大影响。由于预测的发布是由 TMT 管理者共同决定的,我们认为 TMT 成员之间 PPS 的异质性会影响预测的发布。我们发现,当 TMT 成员之间的 PPS 高度分散时,公司不太可能发布 MEF。此外,这些公司的预测也不那么乐观。最后,我们的分析表明,当首席执行官与其他高管之间的 PPS 差异较大或团队任期较短时,TMT 成员之间的 PPS 分散对 MEF 的影响更为明显。总之,我们的结果表明,TMT 成员间 PPS 的异质性会影响公司的自愿披露。
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引用次数: 0
Verifiable content in social media stock-analysis articles: The long and short of it 社交媒体股票分析文章中的可验证内容:长与短
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12834
Lei Chen, Shuping Chen, Tian Gao, Wuyang Zhao

Investment-related social media platforms are transforming the traditional intermediary landscape by rapidly disseminating user-empowered opinions and recommendations, raising concerns about the credibility of information on such platforms. We examine the differential content verifiability of SeekingAlpha.com articles with sell recommendations (short articles) versus articles with buy recommendations (long articles). We find that short articles contain greater verifiable content than long articles, and verifiable content in short articles generates greater market reactions and better mitigates return reversals than that in long articles. This asymmetry contrasts prior research evidence that greater content verifiability accompanies traditional sell-side analyst reports with buy recommendations. Our results are robust to various confounding factors, including author effects, among others. Our results become more pronounced in the presence of greater retail ownership. Taken together, our results provide new evidence on investors’ assessment of the credibility of information on social media platforms.

与投资相关的社交媒体平台正在改变传统中介机构的格局,迅速传播由用户授权的意见和建议,从而引发了人们对此类平台上信息可信度的担忧。我们研究了 SeekingAlpha.com 上推荐卖出的文章(短文)与推荐买入的文章(长文)在内容可验证性上的差异。我们发现,与长篇文章相比,短篇文章包含的可验证内容更多,而且短篇文章中的可验证内容比长篇文章中的可验证内容能产生更大的市场反应,并能更好地缓解回报逆转。这种不对称性与之前的研究证据形成了鲜明对比,之前的研究证据表明,在传统的卖方分析师报告中,买入建议的内容可验证性更高。我们的结果对各种混杂因素(包括作者效应等)都是稳健的。在散户持股比例较高的情况下,我们的结果会更加明显。总之,我们的结果为投资者评估社交媒体平台上信息的可信度提供了新的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Does International Financial Reporting Standards adoption improve or impede comparability? New evidence from Chinese dual-class firms 采用国际财务报告准则会提高还是阻碍可比性?来自中国双重股权结构公司的新证据
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12835
Jenny Xinjiao Guan, Kangtao Ye, Shanshan Zhang, Xiao-Jun Zhang

We analyze a unique set of Chinese firms to isolate the impact of accounting standards on financial reporting comparability and capital markets. From 2001 to 2006, these companies simultaneously maintained two sets of financial statements because of their dual-class share structure: statements for A-shares followed Chinese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), whereas those for B-shares followed International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). We find a disparity in financial reporting comparability between these two accounting standards: IFRS produce less comparable information than Chinese GAAP. We also find that the disparity in comparability is related to fair value accounting, especially when corporate governance is weak.

我们分析了一组独特的中国公司,以分离会计准则对财务报告可比性和资本市场的影响。从2001年到2006年,由于其双重股权结构,这些公司同时维持两套财务报表:a股报表遵循中国公认会计准则(GAAP),而b股报表遵循国际财务报告准则(IFRS)。我们发现这两个会计准则在财务报告可比性方面存在差异:国际财务报告准则产生的可比信息少于中国公认会计准则。我们还发现,可比性的差异与公允价值会计有关,特别是在公司治理薄弱的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Information acquisition and tax avoidance: Evidence from a natural experiment 信息获取与避税:来自自然实验的证据
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12830
Lyu Fan, Caiyue Ouyang, Jeffrey Pittman, Jiacai Xiong, Jun Yao

Analyzing the launch of high-speed rail (HSR) services in China as a natural experiment, we identify a positive externality stemming from lower information acquisition costs: the reduction in firms’ overinvestment in tax avoidance. Specifically, we find that outsiders undertake more corporate site visits and firms engage in less tax avoidance after the opening of HSR lines in the cities where these firms are located, leading to enhanced firm value. In another result consistent with expectations, we document that the impact of the introduction of HSR lines on tax avoidance is concentrated in firms in which insiders exhibit a high propensity to extract rents through aggressive tax strategies. Our results imply that more efficient transportation facilitates site visits and the acquisition of firm-specific information, particularly soft information. This improvement strengthens external monitoring, thereby limiting the ability of insiders to accumulate private benefits under the guise of tax avoidance that benefits all shareholders as the residual claimants.

我们将中国高铁服务的推出作为一种自然实验进行分析,发现信息获取成本降低带来了正外部性:企业在避税方面的过度投资减少。具体而言,我们发现,在高铁开通后,企业所在地的外部人员会进行更多的企业实地考察,企业的避税行为也会减少,从而提升了企业价值。在另一个与预期一致的结果中,我们发现引入高铁线路对避税的影响集中在内部人员表现出通过激进税收策略提取租金的高倾向的公司。我们的研究结果表明,更高效的交通运输有助于实地考察和企业特定信息的获取,特别是软信息。这一改进加强了外部监督,从而限制了内部人士以避税为幌子积累私人利益的能力,而这些利益使所有股东作为剩余索取者受益。
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引用次数: 0
Do politically connected subsidy recipients disclose less subsidy information? 有政治关系的补贴接受者披露的补贴信息少吗?
IF 2.2 3区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12829
Ningzhong Li, Youchao Tan, Cheng Zeng, Colin

This paper examines the association between firms’ political connections and their voluntary disclosure of information related to government subsidies, using a sample of Chinese non-state-owned enterprises. We find that politically connected subsidy recipients disclose less information about their subsidies (source and policy basis) in their annual reports than do unconnected firms. This association is mainly driven by connected firms whose subsidies are difficult to justify and are stronger for firms registered in more corrupt provinces and firms with higher media attention. In addition, connected firms disclosing more subsidy information receive fewer future subsidies than do other connected firms. These findings suggest that politically connected subsidy recipients tend to withhold subsidy information to reduce the costs that accompany public scrutiny of subsidies granted through relationships.

本文以中国非国有企业为样本,考察了企业政治关系与其政府补贴相关信息自愿披露之间的关系。我们发现,与没有政治关系的企业相比,有政治关系的补贴接受者在年度报告中披露的补贴信息(来源和政策基础)更少。这种联系主要是由关联企业推动的,这些企业的补贴很难证明是合理的,而且在腐败程度较高的省份注册的企业和媒体关注度较高的企业的补贴力度更大。此外,披露更多补贴信息的关联企业比其他关联企业获得更少的未来补贴。这些发现表明,有政治关系的补贴接受者倾向于隐瞒补贴信息,以降低公众对通过关系获得的补贴进行审查的成本。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Business Finance & Accounting
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