Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money最新文献

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Navigating uncertainty: How do interest rate fluctuations affect ESG performance? 驾驭不确定性：利率波动如何影响ESG绩效？

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102282

Çiğdem Vural-Yavaş , Seda Bilyay-Erdogan

This study examines the impact of interest rate uncertainty on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, using an international dataset covering 8,296 firm-year observations. We present novel evidence that short-term and long-term interest rate uncertainty have a positive impact on ESG performance, with the estimated impact of short-term uncertainty being approximately three times greater than that of long-term uncertainty. Our findings remain robust when we employ alternative variable definitions, samples, model specifications, and methodologies that address endogeneity issues. Next, we identify potential transmission channels: long-term interest rate uncertainty affects ESG through corporate investments and financial constraints, while short-term uncertainty does so via corporate risk-taking. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that country-level institutional factors moderate the long-term interest rate uncertainty – ESG link, such that the positive impact of long-term interest rate uncertainty on corporate ESG performance is less pronounced for the firms in countries with more institutional quality. Overall, the results underscore the significance of macro-financial uncertainty in shaping firms’ sustainability practices.

本研究使用涵盖8,296家公司年度观察的国际数据集，考察了利率不确定性对公司环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效的影响。我们提出了新的证据，证明短期和长期利率不确定性对ESG绩效有积极影响，估计短期不确定性的影响大约是长期不确定性的三倍。当我们采用可选择的变量定义、样本、模型规范和解决内生性问题的方法时，我们的发现仍然是稳健的。其次，我们确定了潜在的传导渠道：长期利率不确定性通过企业投资和财务约束影响ESG，而短期利率不确定性通过企业风险承担影响ESG。最后，我们实证证明，国家层面的制度因素调节了长期利率不确定性与ESG之间的联系，因此，在制度质量较高的国家，长期利率不确定性对企业ESG绩效的积极影响不太明显。总体而言，研究结果强调了宏观金融不确定性在塑造企业可持续发展实践中的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches help shape inflation expectations?: Evidence from Japan 央行行长讲话的语气能帮助塑造通胀预期吗？：来自日本的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102283

Dooyeon Cho , Seunghwa Rho

Using survey data on households’ inflation expectations in Japan, this study investigates how the tone of central bankers’ speeches, measured with FinBERT, a domain-specific large language model, affects these expectations across the business cycle. Our findings indicate that a positive tone in central bank communications significantly boosts inflation expectations during recessions by increasing public confidence and promoting beliefs about future inflation. By contrast, during expansions, this positive tone has little impact. We also find that monetary policy shocks do not significantly affect inflation expectations in Japan. Given the country’s unique economic challenges and prolonged deflation, these findings can provide important policy implications for Japan, as managing inflation expectations is critical to its monetary policy. Overall, our results suggest that central bankers’ speeches in Japan play an important role in shaping inflation expectations, particularly during economic downturns, beyond the influence of conventional policy rate adjustments.

本研究利用日本家庭通胀预期的调查数据，用FinBERT（一个特定领域的大型语言模型）来衡量央行行长讲话的语气如何影响整个商业周期的这些预期。我们的研究结果表明，在经济衰退期间，央行沟通中的积极基调通过增强公众信心和促进对未来通胀的信念，显著提高了通胀预期。相比之下，在经济扩张期间，这种积极的基调几乎没有影响。我们还发现，货币政策冲击对日本通胀预期的影响并不显著。鉴于日本独特的经济挑战和长期的通货紧缩，这些发现可以为日本提供重要的政策启示，因为管理通胀预期对其货币政策至关重要。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，日本央行行长的讲话在塑造通胀预期方面发挥了重要作用，尤其是在经济低迷时期，超出了传统政策利率调整的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Predictive sorting of cryptocurrencies based on fundamentals and sentiment 基于基本面和情绪的加密货币预测排序

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102285

Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta

This paper examines the predictive power of blockchain characteristics and sentiment indicators for cryptocurrency returns. We construct three weekly factor-mimicking portfolios based on network activity (active users), computing intensity (hashrate), and a sentiment measure from Google search trends. Using an out-of-sample forecasting framework, we find that all three predictors show strong performance across 40 cryptocurrencies. The certainty equivalent returns are often well above the risk-free rate, which supports the economic relevance of the blockchain-driven predictors. We also implement a portfolio sorting methodology that ranks cryptocurrencies by earlier, realized factor-based predictability scores and forms long-short portfolios accordingly. The resulting return spreads confirm the value of combining blockchain and sentiment-based signals. Overall, our findings emphasize the joint relevance of both fundamental and behavioral factors in predicting cryptocurrency returns.

本文研究了区块链特征和情绪指标对加密货币回报的预测能力。我们基于网络活动（活跃用户）、计算强度（哈希率）和谷歌搜索趋势的情绪度量构建了三个每周因子模拟投资组合。使用样本外预测框架，我们发现所有三个预测因子在40种加密货币中都表现出强劲的表现。确定性等效回报通常远高于无风险利率，这支持了区块链驱动预测器的经济相关性。我们还实施了一种投资组合排序方法，根据早期实现的基于因素的可预测性得分对加密货币进行排名，并相应地形成多空投资组合。由此产生的回报价差证实了区块链和基于情绪的信号相结合的价值。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了基本面因素和行为因素在预测加密货币回报方面的共同相关性。

引用次数: 0

Systemic risk under the radar: Evidence from building societies and challenger banks 雷达下的系统性风险：来自房屋互助协会和挑战者银行的证据

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102267

Alexandros Skouralis

This paper provides the first comprehensive quantification of the systemic risk posed by non-listed financial institutions in the UK, focusing on building societies, digital-only challenger banks, and foreign-owned retail banks. Using an indirect estimation approach, systemic risk is measured through balance sheet characteristics, calibrated against listed institutions’ SRISK values. The findings reveal that Nationwide ranks among the top ten systemically important institutions, while several other building societies contribute significantly to aggregate systemic risk. In contrast, digital-only challenger banks exhibit low systemic risk due to high equity ratios and limited interconnectedness, despite rapid growth and persistent financial losses. Santander, a foreign-owned retail bank, emerges as the ninth most systemically important institution, with risk levels comparable to systemically-important domestic banks. We conduct extensive robustness checks, including alternative predictors and SRISK specifications, out-of-sample forecasting, and Principal Component Analysis, which confirms the strong co-movement between building societies and the largest UK banks. Finally, we compare SRISK with traditional Z-score metrics to highlight their complementary nature. These findings underscore the need to extend systemic risk frameworks beyond listed entities and support calls to expand the stress testing perimeter to include large non-listed and foreign-owned firms.

本文首次对英国非上市金融机构构成的系统性风险进行了全面量化，重点关注建房互助会、纯数字挑战者银行和外资零售银行。采用间接估计方法，通过资产负债表特征来衡量系统性风险，并根据上市机构的SRISK值进行校准。调查结果显示，Nationwide位列十大具有系统重要性的机构之列，而其他几个建房互助会则对总体系统风险做出了重大贡献。相比之下，纯数字挑战者银行尽管增长迅速，财务损失持续存在，但由于高股本比率和有限的互联性，其系统性风险较低。外资零售银行桑坦德银行（Santander）在最具系统重要性的机构中排名第九，其风险水平与具有系统重要性的国内银行相当。我们进行了广泛的稳健性检查，包括替代预测指标和SRISK规范、样本外预测和主成分分析，这证实了建房互助会和英国最大银行之间的强烈联合。最后，我们将SRISK与传统Z-score指标进行比较，以突出它们的互补性。这些发现强调了将系统性风险框架扩展到上市实体之外的必要性，并支持将压力测试范围扩大到大型非上市公司和外资公司的呼吁。

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引用次数: 0

Vulnerability to climate change and funding squeeze in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲易受气候变化影响和资金紧张

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102281

Amétépé Egbétoké, Loredana Ureche-Rangau

The paper investigates whether and how climate vulnerability affects public debt. We focus on a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change, but scarcely explored, namely Sub-Saharan Africa. On a sample of annual data covering 38 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2022, our results highlight a negative relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and climate vulnerability. This relationship holds even when we control for several factors, namely financial crises, sovereign defaults or debt relief programs. Moreover, we account for cross-country dependence and heterogeneity and use variables measuring organized violence and adaptive capacity to climate change as instruments for climate vulnerability. When analyzing the impact of fiscal rules, our results show evidence that while climate vulnerability reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio in countries with expenditure and credible budget balance rules, establishing revenue and credible debt rules may alleviate the funding squeeze.

本文调查了气候脆弱性是否以及如何影响公共债务。我们关注的是一个极易受到气候变化影响，但很少被探索的地区，即撒哈拉以南非洲。在2000年至2022年期间覆盖38个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的年度数据样本中，我们的结果突出了债务与gdp比率与气候脆弱性之间的负相关关系。即使我们控制了几个因素，即金融危机、主权违约或债务减免计划，这种关系仍然成立。此外，我们考虑了跨国依赖和异质性，并使用衡量有组织暴力和气候变化适应能力的变量作为气候脆弱性的工具。在分析财政规则的影响时，我们的研究结果表明，虽然气候脆弱性降低了拥有支出和可信预算平衡规则的国家的债务与gdp之比，但建立收入和可信的债务规则可能会缓解资金紧张。

引用次数: 0

Geopolitical risks and firm export product quality 地缘政治风险与企业出口产品质量

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102264

Mengxu Xiong , Dongmin Kong

Drawing upon the real-time bilateral conflict data reported in GDELT, we construct a novel index to gauge the geopolitical risk confronted by firms. Utilizing this index, we obtain reliable evidence that geopolitical risks significantly undermine firms’ export product quality, which is plausibly attributable to the reduction in imports of intermediate inputs, the curtailment of R&D investment, the compositional shifts in firms’ export portfolio, and the alteration of demand-side preferences. The findings remain valid across a series of robustness checks and endogeneity tests. Moreover, the adverse impact is more prominent for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), financially-constrained firms, less productive firms, firms with fewer skilled workers, firms exporting less to OECD countries, and firms operating in less competitive markets. By elucidating the unfavorable consequences of geopolitical risks from a micro perspective, our study may offer suggestions for policymakers and firm managers striving for long-term and stable development in an uncertain environment.

利用GDELT报告的实时双边冲突数据，我们构建了一个新的指数来衡量企业面临的地缘政治风险。利用该指数，我们获得了可靠的证据，表明地缘政治风险显著降低了企业的出口产品质量，这可能是由于中间投入品进口的减少、研发投资的削减、企业出口组合的构成变化以及需求侧偏好的改变。研究结果在一系列稳健性检查和内生性检验中仍然有效。此外，对非国有企业（non-国企）、资金受限的企业、生产率较低的企业、技术工人较少的企业、向经合组织国家出口较少的企业以及在竞争较弱的市场上经营的企业的不利影响更为突出。通过从微观角度阐明地缘政治风险的不利后果，我们的研究可以为政策制定者和企业管理者在不确定的环境中争取长期稳定发展提供建议。

引用次数: 0

License to Give Up? informal competition and registered SMEs’ discouragement 放弃的许可？非正规竞争与注册中小企业的阻碍

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102288

Francis Osei-Tutu , Daniel Taylor , Eunice Yaa Cudjoe , Gyedu Justice Opoku

An important barrier in SME lending is the discouragement of borrowing firms. Research documents that a substantial number of firms in need of credit refrain from applying for loans in the first place, thereby self-imposing financing constraints. In this paper, we examine whether competition from informal firms influences the discouragement of borrowing registered SMEs. Using firm-level survey data of 29,105 SMEs in 64 countries, we find that registered SMEs facing competition from informal firms are more likely to be discouraged from applying for loans. Engaging in corrupt activities as a non-market strategy does not mitigate the adverse effect of informal competition. Further analysis shows that this effect is observable for younger and non-exporting registered SMEs, highlighting the need for policy frameworks tailored specifically for younger registered SMEs and also policies that facilitate registered SMEs to internationalize. Overall, our results are consistent with previous research on the parasite view of informality and suggest that policy measures aimed at reducing informality would lower borrower discouragement.

中小企业贷款的一个重要障碍是借款公司的不积极性。研究表明，大量需要信贷的公司一开始就不申请贷款，从而自我施加融资限制。本文考察了来自非正式企业的竞争是否会影响注册中小企业借贷的积极性。利用64个国家29105家中小企业的企业层面调查数据，我们发现，面临非正规企业竞争的注册中小企业更有可能不愿申请贷款。作为一种非市场策略，参与腐败活动并不能减轻非正式竞争的不利影响。进一步的分析表明，对于较年轻的和非出口注册的中小企业来说，这种影响是可以观察到的，这突出表明需要制定专门为较年轻的注册中小企业量身定制的政策框架，以及促进注册中小企业国际化的政策。总体而言，我们的结果与之前关于非正式性的寄生虫观点的研究一致，并表明旨在减少非正式性的政策措施将降低借款人的气馁情绪。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying credit gaps using survey data on discouraged borrowers 利用对气馁的借款人的调查数据量化信贷缺口

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102279

Ozan E. Akbas , Frank Betz , Luca Gattini

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the aggregate financing needs of firms that are bankable yet discouraged from applying for a loan. Our data come mainly from the 2018–2020 Enterprise Survey and cover 35 emerging and developing economies. Drawing on the literature on corporate bankruptcy prediction, we develop a model with elastic net regularization to predict the outcome of loan applications. Our approach suggests that 38% of discouraged firms would have had their loan application approved, signaling inefficient self-rationing. Using this information, we estimate an aggregate credit gap of 5.4% of GDP, with significant variation across countries. Small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than two-thirds of the total, reflecting both their contribution to economic activity and the fact that they are more likely to be credit-constrained.

本文提出了一种方法来估计可融资但不愿申请贷款的公司的总融资需求。我们的数据主要来自《2018-2020年企业调查》，涵盖35个新兴和发展中经济体。在借鉴企业破产预测文献的基础上，建立了一个弹性网正则化的企业破产预测模型。我们的方法表明，38%的气馁企业的贷款申请会获得批准，这表明自我定量配给效率低下。利用这些信息，我们估计信贷缺口总额为GDP的5.4%，各国差异很大。中小企业占总数的三分之二以上，这既反映了它们对经济活动的贡献，也反映了它们更有可能受到信贷限制的事实。

引用次数: 0

Institutional risk and wage premia 制度风险与工资溢价

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102266

Wei Wang , Yun Wen , Haoxi Yang , Jiaohui Yang

This study draws on individual-level data from the global football market to examine compensating wage premia for national institutional risk. Using a large panel dataset comprising 243,099 football players across 150 economies from 2010 to 2023, we demonstrate that players employed in economies with high institutional risk receive higher wages as compensation. The main findings remain robust across a series of tests, including alternative measures of institutional risk, additional control variables, different clustering methods, and various subsample analyses. Further analysis reveals that cross-border mobility and institutional adaptability significantly influence the wage premia. Players of higher capability and those from home economies with advanced football development generally possess greater bargaining power and hence secure higher compensation for institutional risk. Likewise, foreign players, particularly those facing larger institutional distance between their home and host economies, command higher wage premia to offset adaptation costs in unfamiliar institutional environments.

本研究利用来自全球足球市场的个人层面数据来检验补偿工资溢价对国家制度风险的影响。我们使用了一个大型面板数据集，其中包括2010年至2023年150个经济体的243,099名足球运动员，我们证明了在高制度风险经济体中工作的球员获得更高的工资作为补偿。通过一系列测试，包括机构风险的替代措施、额外的控制变量、不同的聚类方法和各种子样本分析，主要发现仍然是稳健的。进一步分析发现，跨境流动性和制度适应性对工资溢价有显著影响。能力较高的球员和足球发展较发达的本土球员通常具有更大的议价能力，因此可以获得更高的制度风险补偿。同样，外国参与者，特别是那些在母国和东道国之间面临较大制度距离的参与者，要求更高的工资溢价，以抵消在不熟悉的制度环境中的适应成本。

引用次数: 0

Financial market development and bank deposits 金融市场发展与银行存款

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102278

Nikhil Srivastava , David Tripe , Mamiza Haq , Mui Kuen Yuen

This paper studies the effects of financial market development on bank deposits in a cross-country setting. Our empirical evidence shows that investors in developed and developing economies engage with financial markets differently, leading to varying impacts on bank deposits. For instance, in financially developed economies, financial markets typically complement the banking sector by facilitating deposit growth. Conversely, in financially developing economies, financial markets and banks often compete for deposits, thereby constraining bank deposits growth. This dynamic, however, is shaped by country-specific factors such as market concentration and the level of deposit insurance. Moreover, we find that financial market development increases per capita savings, which in turn strengthens bank deposit growth. These findings remain consistent across a range of model specifications and robustness checks.

本文研究了在跨国背景下金融市场发展对银行存款的影响。我们的经验证据表明，发达经济体和发展中经济体的投资者参与金融市场的方式不同，导致对银行存款的影响不同。例如，在金融发达的经济体中，金融市场通常通过促进存款增长来补充银行业。相反，在金融发展中经济体，金融市场和银行经常争夺存款，从而限制了银行存款的增长。然而，这种动态受到市场集中度和存款保险水平等国家具体因素的影响。此外，我们发现金融市场的发展增加了人均储蓄，这反过来又促进了银行存款的增长。这些发现在一系列模型规范和稳健性检查中保持一致。

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