Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-12DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102283
Dooyeon Cho , Seunghwa Rho
Using survey data on households’ inflation expectations in Japan, this study investigates how the tone of central bankers’ speeches, measured with FinBERT, a domain-specific large language model, affects these expectations across the business cycle. Our findings indicate that a positive tone in central bank communications significantly boosts inflation expectations during recessions by increasing public confidence and promoting beliefs about future inflation. By contrast, during expansions, this positive tone has little impact. We also find that monetary policy shocks do not significantly affect inflation expectations in Japan. Given the country’s unique economic challenges and prolonged deflation, these findings can provide important policy implications for Japan, as managing inflation expectations is critical to its monetary policy. Overall, our results suggest that central bankers’ speeches in Japan play an important role in shaping inflation expectations, particularly during economic downturns, beyond the influence of conventional policy rate adjustments.
{"title":"Can the tone of central bankers’ speeches help shape inflation expectations?: Evidence from Japan","authors":"Dooyeon Cho , Seunghwa Rho","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using survey data on households’ inflation expectations in Japan, this study investigates how the tone of central bankers’ speeches, measured with FinBERT, a domain-specific large language model, affects these expectations across the business cycle. Our findings indicate that a positive tone in central bank communications significantly boosts inflation expectations during recessions by increasing public confidence and promoting beliefs about future inflation. By contrast, during expansions, this positive tone has little impact. We also find that monetary policy shocks do not significantly affect inflation expectations in Japan. Given the country’s unique economic challenges and prolonged deflation, these findings can provide important policy implications for Japan, as managing inflation expectations is critical to its monetary policy. Overall, our results suggest that central bankers’ speeches in Japan play an important role in shaping inflation expectations, particularly during economic downturns, beyond the influence of conventional policy rate adjustments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102283"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-26DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102282
Çiğdem Vural-Yavaş , Seda Bilyay-Erdogan
This study examines the impact of interest rate uncertainty on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, using an international dataset covering 8,296 firm-year observations. We present novel evidence that short-term and long-term interest rate uncertainty have a positive impact on ESG performance, with the estimated impact of short-term uncertainty being approximately three times greater than that of long-term uncertainty. Our findings remain robust when we employ alternative variable definitions, samples, model specifications, and methodologies that address endogeneity issues. Next, we identify potential transmission channels: long-term interest rate uncertainty affects ESG through corporate investments and financial constraints, while short-term uncertainty does so via corporate risk-taking. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that country-level institutional factors moderate the long-term interest rate uncertainty – ESG link, such that the positive impact of long-term interest rate uncertainty on corporate ESG performance is less pronounced for the firms in countries with more institutional quality. Overall, the results underscore the significance of macro-financial uncertainty in shaping firms’ sustainability practices.
{"title":"Navigating uncertainty: How do interest rate fluctuations affect ESG performance?","authors":"Çiğdem Vural-Yavaş , Seda Bilyay-Erdogan","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of interest rate uncertainty on corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, using an international dataset covering 8,296 firm-year observations. We present novel evidence that short-term and long-term interest rate uncertainty have a positive impact on ESG performance, with the estimated impact of short-term uncertainty being approximately three times greater than that of long-term uncertainty. Our findings remain robust when we employ alternative variable definitions, samples, model specifications, and methodologies that address endogeneity issues. Next, we identify potential transmission channels: long-term interest rate uncertainty affects ESG through corporate investments and financial constraints, while short-term uncertainty does so via corporate risk-taking. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that country-level institutional factors moderate the long-term interest rate uncertainty – ESG link, such that the positive impact of long-term interest rate uncertainty on corporate ESG performance is less pronounced for the firms in countries with more institutional quality. Overall, the results underscore the significance of macro-financial uncertainty in shaping firms’ sustainability practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102282"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102267
Alexandros Skouralis
This paper provides the first comprehensive quantification of the systemic risk posed by non-listed financial institutions in the UK, focusing on building societies, digital-only challenger banks, and foreign-owned retail banks. Using an indirect estimation approach, systemic risk is measured through balance sheet characteristics, calibrated against listed institutions’ SRISK values. The findings reveal that Nationwide ranks among the top ten systemically important institutions, while several other building societies contribute significantly to aggregate systemic risk. In contrast, digital-only challenger banks exhibit low systemic risk due to high equity ratios and limited interconnectedness, despite rapid growth and persistent financial losses. Santander, a foreign-owned retail bank, emerges as the ninth most systemically important institution, with risk levels comparable to systemically-important domestic banks. We conduct extensive robustness checks, including alternative predictors and SRISK specifications, out-of-sample forecasting, and Principal Component Analysis, which confirms the strong co-movement between building societies and the largest UK banks. Finally, we compare SRISK with traditional Z-score metrics to highlight their complementary nature. These findings underscore the need to extend systemic risk frameworks beyond listed entities and support calls to expand the stress testing perimeter to include large non-listed and foreign-owned firms.
{"title":"Systemic risk under the radar: Evidence from building societies and challenger banks","authors":"Alexandros Skouralis","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides the first comprehensive quantification of the systemic risk posed by non-listed financial institutions in the UK, focusing on building societies, digital-only challenger banks, and foreign-owned retail banks. Using an indirect estimation approach, systemic risk is measured through balance sheet characteristics, calibrated against listed institutions’ SRISK values. The findings reveal that Nationwide ranks among the top ten systemically important institutions, while several other building societies contribute significantly to aggregate systemic risk. In contrast, digital-only challenger banks exhibit low systemic risk due to high equity ratios and limited interconnectedness, despite rapid growth and persistent financial losses. Santander, a foreign-owned retail bank, emerges as the ninth most systemically important institution<strong>,</strong> with risk levels comparable to systemically-important domestic banks. We conduct extensive robustness checks, including alternative predictors and SRISK specifications, out-of-sample forecasting, and Principal Component Analysis, which confirms the strong co-movement between building societies and the largest UK banks. Finally, we compare SRISK with traditional Z-score metrics to highlight their complementary nature. These findings underscore the need to extend systemic risk frameworks beyond listed entities and support calls to expand the stress testing perimeter to include large non-listed and foreign-owned firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102267"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102281
Amétépé Egbétoké, Loredana Ureche-Rangau
The paper investigates whether and how climate vulnerability affects public debt. We focus on a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change, but scarcely explored, namely Sub-Saharan Africa. On a sample of annual data covering 38 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2022, our results highlight a negative relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and climate vulnerability. This relationship holds even when we control for several factors, namely financial crises, sovereign defaults or debt relief programs. Moreover, we account for cross-country dependence and heterogeneity and use variables measuring organized violence and adaptive capacity to climate change as instruments for climate vulnerability. When analyzing the impact of fiscal rules, our results show evidence that while climate vulnerability reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio in countries with expenditure and credible budget balance rules, establishing revenue and credible debt rules may alleviate the funding squeeze.
{"title":"Vulnerability to climate change and funding squeeze in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Amétépé Egbétoké, Loredana Ureche-Rangau","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102281","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper investigates whether and how climate vulnerability affects public debt. We focus on a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change, but scarcely explored, namely Sub-Saharan Africa. On a sample of annual data covering 38 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2022, our results highlight a negative relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and climate vulnerability. This relationship holds even when we control for several factors, namely financial crises, sovereign defaults or debt relief programs. Moreover, we account for cross-country dependence and heterogeneity and use variables measuring organized violence and adaptive capacity to climate change as instruments for climate vulnerability. When analyzing the impact of fiscal rules, our results show evidence that while climate vulnerability reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio in countries with expenditure and credible budget balance rules, establishing revenue and credible debt rules may alleviate the funding squeeze.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102281"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-08DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102285
Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta
This paper examines the predictive power of blockchain characteristics and sentiment indicators for cryptocurrency returns. We construct three weekly factor-mimicking portfolios based on network activity (active users), computing intensity (hashrate), and a sentiment measure from Google search trends. Using an out-of-sample forecasting framework, we find that all three predictors show strong performance across 40 cryptocurrencies. The certainty equivalent returns are often well above the risk-free rate, which supports the economic relevance of the blockchain-driven predictors. We also implement a portfolio sorting methodology that ranks cryptocurrencies by earlier, realized factor-based predictability scores and forms long-short portfolios accordingly. The resulting return spreads confirm the value of combining blockchain and sentiment-based signals. Overall, our findings emphasize the joint relevance of both fundamental and behavioral factors in predicting cryptocurrency returns.
{"title":"Predictive sorting of cryptocurrencies based on fundamentals and sentiment","authors":"Massimo Guidolin, Serena Ionta","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the predictive power of blockchain characteristics and sentiment indicators for cryptocurrency returns. We construct three weekly factor-mimicking portfolios based on network activity (active users), computing intensity (hashrate), and a sentiment measure from Google search trends. Using an out-of-sample forecasting framework, we find that all three predictors show strong performance across 40 cryptocurrencies. The certainty equivalent returns are often well above the risk-free rate, which supports the economic relevance of the blockchain-driven predictors. We also implement a portfolio sorting methodology that ranks cryptocurrencies by earlier, realized factor-based predictability scores and forms long-short portfolios accordingly. The resulting return spreads confirm the value of combining blockchain and sentiment-based signals. Overall, our findings emphasize the joint relevance of both fundamental and behavioral factors in predicting cryptocurrency returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102285"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145925354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102264
Mengxu Xiong , Dongmin Kong
Drawing upon the real-time bilateral conflict data reported in GDELT, we construct a novel index to gauge the geopolitical risk confronted by firms. Utilizing this index, we obtain reliable evidence that geopolitical risks significantly undermine firms’ export product quality, which is plausibly attributable to the reduction in imports of intermediate inputs, the curtailment of R&D investment, the compositional shifts in firms’ export portfolio, and the alteration of demand-side preferences. The findings remain valid across a series of robustness checks and endogeneity tests. Moreover, the adverse impact is more prominent for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), financially-constrained firms, less productive firms, firms with fewer skilled workers, firms exporting less to OECD countries, and firms operating in less competitive markets. By elucidating the unfavorable consequences of geopolitical risks from a micro perspective, our study may offer suggestions for policymakers and firm managers striving for long-term and stable development in an uncertain environment.
{"title":"Geopolitical risks and firm export product quality","authors":"Mengxu Xiong , Dongmin Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102264","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102264","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing upon the real-time bilateral conflict data reported in GDELT, we construct a novel index to gauge the geopolitical risk confronted by firms. Utilizing this index, we obtain reliable evidence that geopolitical risks significantly undermine firms’ export product quality, which is plausibly attributable to the reduction in imports of intermediate inputs, the curtailment of R&D investment, the compositional shifts in firms’ export portfolio, and the alteration of demand-side preferences. The findings remain valid across a series of robustness checks and endogeneity tests. Moreover, the adverse impact is more prominent for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), financially-constrained firms, less productive firms, firms with fewer skilled workers, firms exporting less to OECD countries, and firms operating in less competitive markets. By elucidating the unfavorable consequences of geopolitical risks from a micro perspective, our study may offer suggestions for policymakers and firm managers striving for long-term and stable development in an uncertain environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102264"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145624928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102288
Francis Osei-Tutu , Daniel Taylor , Eunice Yaa Cudjoe , Gyedu Justice Opoku
An important barrier in SME lending is the discouragement of borrowing firms. Research documents that a substantial number of firms in need of credit refrain from applying for loans in the first place, thereby self-imposing financing constraints. In this paper, we examine whether competition from informal firms influences the discouragement of borrowing registered SMEs. Using firm-level survey data of 29,105 SMEs in 64 countries, we find that registered SMEs facing competition from informal firms are more likely to be discouraged from applying for loans. Engaging in corrupt activities as a non-market strategy does not mitigate the adverse effect of informal competition. Further analysis shows that this effect is observable for younger and non-exporting registered SMEs, highlighting the need for policy frameworks tailored specifically for younger registered SMEs and also policies that facilitate registered SMEs to internationalize. Overall, our results are consistent with previous research on the parasite view of informality and suggest that policy measures aimed at reducing informality would lower borrower discouragement.
{"title":"License to Give Up? informal competition and registered SMEs’ discouragement","authors":"Francis Osei-Tutu , Daniel Taylor , Eunice Yaa Cudjoe , Gyedu Justice Opoku","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102288","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An important barrier in SME lending is the discouragement of borrowing firms. Research documents that a substantial number of firms in need of credit refrain from applying for loans in the first place, thereby self-imposing financing constraints. In this paper, we examine whether competition from informal firms influences the discouragement of borrowing registered SMEs. Using firm-level survey data of 29,105 SMEs in 64 countries, we find that registered SMEs facing competition from informal firms are more likely to be discouraged from applying for loans. Engaging in corrupt activities as a non-market strategy does not mitigate the adverse effect of informal competition. Further analysis shows that this effect is observable for younger and non-exporting registered SMEs, highlighting the need for policy frameworks tailored specifically for younger registered SMEs and also policies that facilitate registered SMEs to internationalize. Overall, our results are consistent with previous research on the parasite view of informality and suggest that policy measures aimed at reducing informality would lower borrower discouragement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102288"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-29DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102279
Ozan E. Akbas , Frank Betz , Luca Gattini
This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the aggregate financing needs of firms that are bankable yet discouraged from applying for a loan. Our data come mainly from the 2018–2020 Enterprise Survey and cover 35 emerging and developing economies. Drawing on the literature on corporate bankruptcy prediction, we develop a model with elastic net regularization to predict the outcome of loan applications. Our approach suggests that 38% of discouraged firms would have had their loan application approved, signaling inefficient self-rationing. Using this information, we estimate an aggregate credit gap of 5.4% of GDP, with significant variation across countries. Small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than two-thirds of the total, reflecting both their contribution to economic activity and the fact that they are more likely to be credit-constrained.
{"title":"Quantifying credit gaps using survey data on discouraged borrowers","authors":"Ozan E. Akbas , Frank Betz , Luca Gattini","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102279","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102279","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the aggregate financing needs of firms that are bankable yet discouraged from applying for a loan. Our data come mainly from the 2018–2020 Enterprise Survey and cover 35 emerging and developing economies. Drawing on the literature on corporate bankruptcy prediction, we develop a model with elastic net regularization to predict the outcome of loan applications. Our approach suggests that 38% of discouraged firms would have had their loan application approved, signaling inefficient self-rationing. Using this information, we estimate an aggregate credit gap of 5.4% of GDP, with significant variation across countries. Small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than two-thirds of the total, reflecting both their contribution to economic activity and the fact that they are more likely to be credit-constrained.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102279"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145884001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102266
Wei Wang , Yun Wen , Haoxi Yang , Jiaohui Yang
This study draws on individual-level data from the global football market to examine compensating wage premia for national institutional risk. Using a large panel dataset comprising 243,099 football players across 150 economies from 2010 to 2023, we demonstrate that players employed in economies with high institutional risk receive higher wages as compensation. The main findings remain robust across a series of tests, including alternative measures of institutional risk, additional control variables, different clustering methods, and various subsample analyses. Further analysis reveals that cross-border mobility and institutional adaptability significantly influence the wage premia. Players of higher capability and those from home economies with advanced football development generally possess greater bargaining power and hence secure higher compensation for institutional risk. Likewise, foreign players, particularly those facing larger institutional distance between their home and host economies, command higher wage premia to offset adaptation costs in unfamiliar institutional environments.
{"title":"Institutional risk and wage premia","authors":"Wei Wang , Yun Wen , Haoxi Yang , Jiaohui Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102266","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102266","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study draws on individual-level data from the global football market to examine compensating wage premia for national institutional risk. Using a large panel dataset comprising 243,099 football players across 150 economies from 2010 to 2023, we demonstrate that players employed in economies with high institutional risk receive higher wages as compensation. The main findings remain robust across a series of tests, including alternative measures of institutional risk, additional control variables, different clustering methods, and various subsample analyses. Further analysis reveals that cross-border mobility and institutional adaptability significantly influence the wage premia. Players of higher capability and those from home economies with advanced football development generally possess greater bargaining power and hence secure higher compensation for institutional risk. Likewise, foreign players, particularly those facing larger institutional distance between their home and host economies, command higher wage premia to offset adaptation costs in unfamiliar institutional environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102266"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145747844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102278
Nikhil Srivastava , David Tripe , Mamiza Haq , Mui Kuen Yuen
This paper studies the effects of financial market development on bank deposits in a cross-country setting. Our empirical evidence shows that investors in developed and developing economies engage with financial markets differently, leading to varying impacts on bank deposits. For instance, in financially developed economies, financial markets typically complement the banking sector by facilitating deposit growth. Conversely, in financially developing economies, financial markets and banks often compete for deposits, thereby constraining bank deposits growth. This dynamic, however, is shaped by country-specific factors such as market concentration and the level of deposit insurance. Moreover, we find that financial market development increases per capita savings, which in turn strengthens bank deposit growth. These findings remain consistent across a range of model specifications and robustness checks.
{"title":"Financial market development and bank deposits","authors":"Nikhil Srivastava , David Tripe , Mamiza Haq , Mui Kuen Yuen","doi":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102278","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102278","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the effects of financial market development on bank deposits in a cross-country setting. Our empirical evidence shows that investors in developed and developing economies engage with financial markets differently, leading to varying impacts on bank deposits. For instance, in financially developed economies, financial markets typically complement the banking sector by facilitating deposit growth. Conversely, in financially developing economies, financial markets and banks often compete for deposits, thereby constraining bank deposits growth. This dynamic, however, is shaped by country-specific factors such as market concentration and the level of deposit insurance. Moreover, we find that financial market development increases per capita savings, which in turn strengthens bank deposit growth. These findings remain consistent across a range of model specifications and robustness checks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48119,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money","volume":"107 ","pages":"Article 102278"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145797345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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