Labour Economics最新文献

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Older workers, pension reforms and firm outcomes 老龄工人、养老金改革和企业业绩

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102823

Francesca Carta , Francesco D’Amuri , Till von Wachter

Using Italian matched employer–employee data, this paper quantifies the effect of an exogenous increase in older workers, driven by an unexpected increase in the statutory retirement age, on the input mix and economic outcomes of medium and large firms. Data on lifetime pension contributions are used to calculate the unexpected additional number of older workers retained by each firm as a result of the pension reform. Instrumental variable estimates show that an increase in the number of older workers leads to a precisely estimated rise in the employment of younger workers, value added and total labor costs relative to less affected firms, holding average labor productivity and unit labor costs constant. The effect is stronger and mostly concentrated in larger firms and in firms where older workers are scarcer, suggesting the existence of firm-specific human capital that generates replacement frictions that the pension reform can alleviate.

本文使用意大利匹配的雇主-雇员数据，量化了由法定退休年龄意外提高驱动的外生老年工人增加对大中型企业投入结构和经济结果的影响。关于终身养老金缴款的数据被用来计算由于养老金改革而被每个公司保留的意外的额外老年工人数量。工具变量估计表明，老年工人数量的增加导致准确估计年轻工人就业率的上升，相对于受影响较小的企业的增加值和总劳动力成本，保持平均劳动生产率和单位劳动力成本不变。这种效应更强，而且主要集中在较大的企业和老年工人较少的企业，这表明企业特有的人力资本的存在会产生替代摩擦，而养老金改革可以缓解这种摩擦。

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The effects of negative labor market conditions at entry: Evidence from the 2004–05 NHL lockout 进入时负面劳动力市场条件的影响：来自2004-05年NHL停摆的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102825

Chengyuan Hua , Brad R. Humphreys

We investigate the impact of a large negative labor market shock on short-run and long-run labor market outcomes of new entrants exposed to this shock. The shock, a labor dispute over a new collective bargaining agreement, resulted in the cancellation of the entire 2004–05 season in the National Hockey League (NHL). We compare career outcomes of new entrants exposed to this shock, players who declared for the 2004 draft, to career outcomes of new entrants in the 2003 draft who were not exposed, generating estimates of the average impact of the treatment on the treated. Results show that new entrants exposed to the shock experienced shorter careers than new entrants in the control group. The results also show strong effect heterogeneity based on observable worker characteristics. New entrants born in Europe benefited from exposure to the shock compared to new entrants born in North America, who were less likely to ever play in the NHL and had shorter careers than treated Europeans. Alternative employment opportunities in European hockey leagues represents a likely mechanism for these results.

我们研究了巨大的负面劳动力市场冲击对面临这种冲击的新进入者的短期和长期劳动力市场结果的影响。一场关于新的集体谈判协议的劳资纠纷导致了2004-05赛季整个国家冰球联盟（NHL）的取消。我们比较了在2004年选秀中受到这种冲击的新进入者的职业生涯结果，以及在2003年选秀中没有受到这种冲击的新进入者的职业生涯结果，得出了治疗对被治疗者的平均影响的估计。结果表明，受冲击的新入职者的职业生涯比对照组的新入职者短。结果还显示了基于可观察到的工人特征的强效应异质性。与出生在北美的新进入者相比，出生在欧洲的新进入者受益于冲击，后者不太可能参加NHL比赛，职业生涯也比接受治疗的欧洲人短。欧洲冰球联盟的替代就业机会代表了这些结果的可能机制。

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Does immigration affect native wages? A meta-analysis 移民会影响本地工资吗？一个荟萃分析

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102815

Amandine Aubry , Jérôme Héricourt , Léa Marchal , Clément Nedoncelle

The impact of immigration on native wages remains a contentious issue in labour economics. This meta-analysis synthesises evidence from 88 studies published between 1985 and 2023, offering a comprehensive assessment of reduced-form estimates. We document substantial heterogeneity across estimates and show that contexts and empirical designs systematically shape reported effects. In particular, shift-share instrumental-variable strategies correct the upward bias seen in OLS estimates. Our findings emphasise the necessity for replication and enhanced transparency in methodological reporting.

在劳动经济学中，移民对本地工资的影响仍是一个有争议的问题。这项荟萃分析综合了1985年至2023年间发表的88项研究的证据，对简化形式的估计进行了全面评估。我们记录了估算的实质性异质性，并表明背景和经验设计系统地塑造了报告的效果。特别是，偏移份额工具变量策略纠正了OLS估计中出现的向上偏差。我们的发现强调了在方法学报告中进行复制和提高透明度的必要性。

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Are ‘good’ firms, good for all employees? “好”公司对所有员工都好吗？

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102816

Matteo Targa

This paper investigates whether employers share rents equally between white-collar and blue-collar workers. Using bias-corrected methods on administrative data from Italy’s Veneto region, I reject this null hypothesis. On average, white-collar workers receive premia that are 13%–15% higher than those of their blue-collar counterparts. This average disparity conceals substantial heterogeneity: half of the top 20% of firms for white-collar workers fall within the bottom 60% of the blue-collar distribution. High-type firms are, thus, not equally beneficial for all employees. Finally, the paper shows that firm premia differentiation has a long history: since the late 1980s, employers have steadily reduced the rents shared with blue-collar workers.

本文考察了雇主在白领和蓝领工人之间是否平均分担租金。通过对意大利威尼托地区的行政数据进行偏差校正的方法，我拒绝了这一零假设。平均而言，白领工人的保费比蓝领工人高出13%-15%。这种平均差距掩盖了巨大的异质性：在面向白领员工的前20%的公司中，有一半位于蓝领员工分布的后60%。因此，高类型公司并非对所有员工都同样有利。最后，论文表明，企业溢价分化有着悠久的历史：自20世纪80年代末以来，雇主一直在稳步降低与蓝领工人分享的租金。

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Knowledge economy, internal migration, and local labour markets 知识经济、内部移民和本地劳动力市场

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102820

Agar Brugiavini , Marco Di Cataldo , Giulia Romani

The spatial concentration of knowledge-intensive activities can generate multiplicative effects at the local level. This paper examines how employment growth in knowledge-intensive and tradable sectors affects wage, days worked, and internal migration of non-tradable workers in Italy. We leverage matched employer-employee data (2005–2019) to track individuals across jobs and locations. Our empirical strategy combines a two-step estimation with a shift-share instrument to disentangle the roles of worker sorting and local spillovers. We find that knowledge sector expansion increases the number of days worked locally and attracts non-tradable workers. It also raises nominal wages, but only when sorting is not accounted for, suggesting selective inflows of more productive workers into knowledge hubs. However, rising local living costs offset nominal wage gains, leading to lower real wages.

知识密集型活动的空间集中可以在地方层面产生乘数效应。本文考察了知识密集型和可贸易部门的就业增长如何影响意大利非贸易工人的工资、工作天数和内部迁移。我们利用匹配的雇主-雇员数据（2005-2019）来跟踪不同工作和地点的个人。我们的实证策略将两步估计与移位份额工具相结合，以理清工人分类和地方溢出的作用。我们发现，知识部门的扩张增加了本地工作的天数，并吸引了非贸易工人。它也提高了名义工资，但只有在不考虑分拣的情况下，这表明更有生产力的工人有选择地流入知识中心。然而，当地生活成本的上升抵消了名义工资的增长，导致实际工资下降。

引用次数: 0

On the road to social mobility? Affirmative action and major choice 在通往社会流动的道路上？平权法案和专业选择

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102821

Fernanda Estevan , Thomas Gall , Louis-Philippe Morin

Students from disadvantaged backgrounds remain underrepresented in prestigious and high-paying fields of study, such as STEM. While affirmative action (AA) policies have been shown to increase the representation of minority students in selective universities, they may also affect students’ choice of majors, with potential implications for social mobility. We study a policy implemented by a highly selective Brazilian university that expanded the range of majors accessible to lower-SES applicants, using it as a natural experiment. The policy led targeted students to apply to and enroll in more prestigious, higher-paying STEM majors and attenuated the influence of socioeconomic background on major choices. Our findings suggest that in contexts where applicants select their majors before university entry and these choices are influenced by strategic considerations, AA policies can be particularly effective in promoting social mobility.

来自弱势背景的学生在STEM等享有盛誉的高收入研究领域的代表性仍然不足。虽然平权行动（AA）政策已被证明增加了少数民族学生在名牌大学的代表性，但它们也可能影响学生对专业的选择，对社会流动性有潜在的影响。我们研究了巴西一所择优录取的大学实施的一项政策，该政策扩大了社会经济地位较低的申请者可选择的专业范围，并将其作为一项自然实验。该政策导致目标学生申请并进入更有声望、收入更高的STEM专业，并减弱了社会经济背景对专业选择的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在申请人在大学入学前选择专业的情况下，这些选择受到战略考虑的影响，AA政策在促进社会流动方面特别有效。

引用次数: 0

Career preferences and socio-economic background 职业偏好和社会经济背景

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102814

Paul Schüle

Career decisions, that is educational and occupational choice, are not only taken by comparing expected incomes, but also by considering non-monetary rewards such as social impact, chances of promotion, or the compatibility of work and family. In this paper, I use rich panel data from Germany and the UK to demonstrate that preferences about such aspects of a career as stated at age 17 are strong predictors of future earnings in the labor market. At the same time, these preferences differ significantly by gender and socio-economic background, and intergenerational income persistence is reduced by 7 to 28 percent when accounting for career preferences.

职业决定，即教育和职业选择，不仅是通过比较预期收入来做出的，而且还考虑到非金钱回报，如社会影响、晋升机会或工作和家庭的兼容性。在本文中，我使用了来自德国和英国的丰富面板数据来证明，17岁时对职业这些方面的偏好是劳动力市场未来收入的有力预测指标。与此同时，这些偏好因性别和社会经济背景而有显著差异，考虑到职业偏好，代际收入持久性降低了7%至28%。

引用次数: 0

Firms, industries and the gender wage gap 公司、行业和性别工资差距

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102817

Shira Buzaglo-Baris

This paper analyzes the gender wage gap across various margins in the labor market: between industries, between firms within industries, and within firms, with a particular focus on parenthood — an event that significantly shapes the gender wage gap. Using comprehensive Employer-Employee administrative data from Israel, the study finds that industry sorting is the primary driver, explaining 22% of the overall gender wage gap, with an additional 4% attributable to women sorting into lower-paying firms within the same industry. Sorting intensifies following parenthood, as mothers are less likely to move to higher-paying firms, especially within the industry. In high-paying industries, mothers tend to accept positions in lower-paying firms while maintaining their relative industry position, whereas in low-paying industries, fathers advance faster up the industry ladder, reinforcing a motherhood penalty at the industry-level. These findings suggest that women’s initial sorting into industries has long-lasting consequences.

本文分析了劳动力市场中不同边际的性别工资差距：行业之间、行业内企业之间和企业内部，并特别关注了父母身份——这一事件显著地影响了性别工资差距。该研究使用了以色列雇主-雇员的综合行政数据，发现行业分类是主要驱动因素，解释了22%的总体性别工资差距，另有4%归因于女性在同一行业内的低薪公司。当妈妈们不太可能跳槽到薪酬更高的公司，尤其是在这个行业内，当妈妈们成为父母后，分班的情况就会加剧。在高收入行业，母亲倾向于接受低收入公司的职位，同时保持其相对的行业地位，而在低收入行业，父亲在行业阶梯上晋升得更快，在行业层面上强化了母亲的惩罚。这些发现表明，女性最初的行业分类会产生长期的影响。

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Persistence and seasonal long memory in unemployment in the United States 美国失业的持续性和季节性长记忆

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102818

Guilherme de Oliveira Lima Cagliari Marques , Mateus Gonzalez de Freitas Pinto

We investigate the persistence of US unemployment applying seasonal fractional integration (FARISMA) models to assess both seasonal and non-seasonal long-range dependence. The analysis is carried out at three levels of data aggregation: state, regional census division, and national aggregation. Using wavelet multiresolution decomposition, we separate out irregular components to assess changes in persistence in unemployment dynamics. Our findings indicate strong evidence of hysteresis in US unemployment rates, with both seasonal and non-seasonal long memory contributing to the persistence of unemployment. These results are evidence that challenges the NAIRU hypothesis, suggesting that exogenous shocks to unemployment have prolonged effects that do not dissipate within a finite time horizon.

我们使用季节分数积分（FARISMA）模型来研究美国失业的持久性，以评估季节性和非季节性的长期依赖性。该分析是在三个数据汇总层面进行的：州、地区普查区划和全国汇总。使用小波多分辨率分解，我们分离出不规则成分，以评估失业动态的持久性变化。我们的研究结果表明，美国失业率存在明显的滞后性，季节性和非季节性的长记忆都是导致失业持续存在的原因。这些结果是挑战NAIRU假设的证据，表明外生冲击对失业的影响是长期的，不会在有限的时间范围内消散。

引用次数: 0

Labor costs and domestic value added: Evidence based on the China’s new Labor Contract law 劳动力成本与国内增加值：基于新《劳动合同法》的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102819

Dongmin Kong , Yifan Jin , Shasha Liu

This paper investigates the impact of labor costs on the domestic value added (DVA) at the firm-level. To establish causality, we use the quasi-natural experiment of the implementation of China’s new Labor Contract law, which leads to a sudden increase in labor costs, to conduct a difference-in-differences (DID) estimation. We find that an increase in labor costs significantly and persistently increases firms’ DVA. Mechanism analyses suggest that these effects are mainly driven by improvement of management efficiency, changes in firms’ trading patterns (from processing trades to ordinary trades), progress in process innovation, and further increased product market power. Moreover, our results are stronger for upstream firms far from final consumption, firms with low product quality, non-state-owned firms, and firms located in areas with low market competition or less legal environmental protection. Overall, this paper investigates a determinant of DVA and adds evidence to the economic implications of China’s new Labor Contract law.

本文从企业层面考察了劳动力成本对国内增加值的影响。为了建立因果关系，我们使用中国新《劳动合同法》实施后导致劳动力成本突然增加的准自然实验，进行了差异中差异（DID）估计。我们发现，劳动力成本的增加显著且持续地增加了企业的DVA。机制分析表明，这些效应主要由管理效率的提高、企业交易方式的转变（从加工贸易到普通贸易）、流程创新的进步和产品市场力的进一步增强所驱动。此外，对于远离最终消费者的上游企业、产品质量较低的企业、非国有企业以及位于市场竞争程度较低或法律环境保护程度较低地区的企业，我们的结果更为明显。总体而言，本文研究了DVA的一个决定因素，并为中国新《劳动合同法》的经济影响提供了证据。

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