Labour Economics最新文献

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Unbundling the effects of college on first-job search: Returns to majors, minors, and extracurriculars 拆分大学对第一份工作的影响：回归专业、辅修和课外活动

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102846

Jaime Arellano-Bover , Carolina Bussotti , John M. Nunley , R. Alan Seals

We analyze the initial job-market matching of new US college graduates with a large-scale audit study conducted during 2016 and 2017, in which 36,880 résumés of college seniors were submitted to online job postings for business-related positions. We simulate the experience of US college students by incorporating variation in curricular and extracurricular activities. Our analysis reveals significant variation in callback rate returns to majors, with Biology and Economics majors receiving the highest rate, particularly in occupations involving high intensity of analytical and interpersonal skills. However, minors in History and Mathematics have precisely estimated zero effects on callback rates. Internship experiences that are social skills-oriented positively influence callbacks, yet this is not the case for analytical internships. Study abroad experiences enhance callback rates, predominantly in high interpersonal skill-intensive occupations. Listing both programming and data analysis skills significantly boosts callback rates. Our study provides a comprehensive characterization of which features of the college experience are more and less valuable during the high-stakes, first-job matching process.

我们在2016年至2017年期间进行了一项大规模的审计研究，分析了美国新大学毕业生的初步就业市场匹配情况，其中36,880名大学毕业生提交了与商业相关职位的在线招聘信息。我们通过在课程和课外活动中加入变化来模拟美国大学生的经历。我们的分析显示，各专业的回调率存在显著差异，其中生物学和经济学专业的回调率最高，尤其是在需要高度分析和人际交往能力的职业中。然而，历史和数学辅修课程对回调率的影响为零。以社交技能为导向的实习经历对回调有积极影响，但分析型实习并非如此。留学经历提高了回调率，尤其是在人际关系技能高度密集的职业中。同时列出编程和数据分析技能可以显著提高回调率。我们的研究提供了一个全面的特征，在高风险的第一份工作匹配过程中，大学经历的哪些特征更有价值，哪些更没有价值。

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引用次数: 0

Do levy penalties boost disability hiring in SMEs? Evidence from a Japanese quota reform 征收罚款会否促进中小企业聘用残疾人士？来自日本配额改革的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102831

Kodai Matsumoto , Yota Okumura , Atsushi Morimoto , Kazufumi Yugami

Financial incentives can shape firms’ compliance with employment quotas, yet their effectiveness remains contested. This study examines whether Japan’s levy-grant system for disability employment promotes hiring in small and medium-sized enterprises. Using administrative data on statutory quota compliance, we exploit a 2015 reform—lowering the coverage threshold from firms with more than 200 to more than 100 employees—as a natural experiment. Difference-in-differences estimates, supplemented by regression discontinuity analysis, reveal heterogeneous effects by pre-reform compliance status. Firms already meeting the quota expanded disability employment in anticipation of the reform, thereby avoiding future levies, while non-compliant firms increased hiring only after coverage took effect. Near the 100-employee threshold, the policy raised the number of employees with disabilities by 0.2–0.3 persons, the employment rate by 0.2–0.3 percentage points, and the probability of employing at least one person with a disability by 12–15 percentage points. Effects weakened after about seven years, and no evidence was found that grants induced further hiring among compliant firms. Sectoral estimates show larger effects in manufacturing, consistent with accumulated know-how that lowers adaptation costs. These results suggest that levy penalties, rather than grants, drive early employment gains, particularly among firms previously out of compliance.

财政激励可以影响企业对就业配额的遵守，但其有效性仍有争议。本研究探讨日本残障就业征费补助制度是否能促进中小企业的就业。利用法定配额合规的行政数据，我们利用2015年的改革——将员工人数超过200人的企业的覆盖门槛降低到100人以上——作为一个自然实验。差异中的差异估计，辅以回归不连续分析，揭示了改革前合规状态的异质性效应。已经达到配额的企业在预期改革的情况下扩大了残疾人就业，从而避免了未来的征税，而不符合配额的企业只有在保险生效后才增加了招聘。在100名员工门槛附近，该政策将残疾员工人数提高0.2-0.3人，就业率提高0.2-0.3个百分点，雇用至少一名残疾人的概率提高12-15个百分点。大约七年后，这种影响减弱了，没有证据表明拨款会促使合规公司进一步招聘。行业估计显示，制造业受到的影响更大，这与降低适应成本的积累技术相一致。这些结果表明，征收罚款，而不是补助，推动了早期就业的增长，特别是在以前不遵守规定的公司中。

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引用次数: 0

Why are marginal workers unemployed: Low productivity or high opportunity cost of employment? 为什么边际工人失业：低生产率还是高就业机会成本？

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102847

Saman Darougheh

15% of Danish workers account for 60% of unemployment. Are these workers unemployed more frequently because of their lower productivity or higher opportunity costs of employment? Using administrative data linking workers to their earnings, wealth, debt, health records, parental backgrounds, partners, job types, and firm-level value added, I find strong evidence that higher unemployment risk reflects lower productivity rather than higher pecuniary opportunity costs. A calibrated heterogeneous-agents model with segmented labor markets is consistent with these findings: productivity differences and non-pecuniary opportunity costs explain most of the unemployment gap. This matters for social policy: optimal unemployment insurance is higher than if marginal workers’ unemployment was predominantly due to a high pecuniary opportunity cost.

15%的丹麦工人占失业人口的60%。这些工人更频繁地失业是因为他们的生产率较低还是就业的机会成本较高？通过将工人与其收入、财富、债务、健康记录、父母背景、伴侣、工作类型和公司层面的附加值联系起来的管理数据，我发现了强有力的证据，表明较高的失业风险反映了较低的生产率，而不是较高的金钱机会成本。经过校准的具有细分劳动力市场的异质性代理模型与这些发现一致：生产率差异和非货币性机会成本解释了大部分失业差距。这对社会政策很重要：最优失业保险高于边际工人失业主要是由于高金钱机会成本造成的情况。

引用次数: 0

Tables have turned: Vertical mismatch across gender 天平倒转：性别之间的垂直不匹配

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102858

Pietro Garibaldi , Pedro Gomes , Thepthida Sopraseuth

We study gender differences in vertical mismatch and their implications. First, we document facts about underemployment and overemployment and their relative wage penalties by gender, for the US between 1970 and 2022, as well as for a cross-section of US States. In 1970s and 1980s, the underemployment rate and their wage penalty relative to well-matched workers was higher for women. By 2022, both variables were higher for men. Second, we use the data to calibrate a neoclassical model of mismatch and find that frictions that generate mismatch have increased more for men during the last 50 years. Reducing these frictions to the level of women would have large effects in the participation rate of men, their wages, and in overall output. States where the underemployment rates and their wage penalty are higher for men, would see their output rise by 2%.

我们研究了垂直失配的性别差异及其影响。首先，我们记录了美国1970年至2022年间就业不足和就业过剩的事实，以及按性别划分的相对工资惩罚，以及美国各州的横截面。在20世纪70年代和80年代，妇女的不充分就业率和工资惩罚相对于匹配良好的工人更高。到2022年，男性的这两个变量都更高。其次，我们使用这些数据来校准错配的新古典模型，发现在过去50年里，男性产生错配的摩擦增加得更多。将这些摩擦减少到女性的水平，将对男性的参与率、他们的工资和总体产出产生重大影响。在那些不充分就业率和男性工资惩罚较高的州，他们的产出将增长2%。

引用次数: 0

Heterogeneous scars in later life: The economic impact of early labour market opportunities 晚年生活中的异质伤痕：早期劳动力市场机会的经济影响

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102864

Petru Crudu

I analyse the heterogeneous effects of labour market opportunities at education completion on end-of-career outcomes. I use data on European individuals who completed education between 1963 and 1982, observing their outcomes beyond age 50. Using standard econometric models and machine learning, I find that poor initial opportunities have lasting effects. Economic downturns have a non-linear impact: missing good opportunities harms more than avoiding bad ones. Effects are stronger for less-educated and low socioeconomic individuals. Women face permanent reductions in labour market participation. I examine explanatory channels over the lifecycle, showing how initial opportunities shape human capital trajectories.

我分析了完成教育时劳动力市场机会对职业结束结果的异质性影响。我使用了1963年至1982年间完成教育的欧洲人的数据，观察他们50岁以后的表现。通过使用标准的计量经济学模型和机器学习，我发现糟糕的初始机会会产生持久的影响。经济衰退的影响是非线性的：错过好机会比避开坏机会更有害。对受教育程度较低和社会经济地位较低的人影响更大。妇女在劳动力市场的参与率永久性下降。我研究了整个生命周期的解释渠道，展示了最初的机会如何塑造人力资本轨迹。

引用次数: 0

Labor market dynamics in a highly competitive industry 竞争激烈的行业中的劳动力市场动态

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102845

Francesco Principe , Jan C. van Ours

We study labor market dynamics of workers in a highly competitive industry with a highly competitive labor market. We focus on the relationship between workers’ age, wages, and productivity. Our analysis uncovers an inverse U-shaped relationship. While some wage adjustments occur within the current firm, job mobility plays a crucial role in shaping wage trajectories. There is assortative matching with highly productive workers moving to highly productive firms, while less productive workers gravitate towards less productive firms. Our findings suggest that both in-firm wage progression and wage growth via job mobility contribute to a close alignment between wages and productivity throughout workers’ careers.

我们研究劳动力市场动态的工人在一个高度竞争的行业与高度竞争的劳动力市场。我们关注的是工人的年龄、工资和生产率之间的关系。我们的分析揭示了一个反u型关系。虽然一些工资调整发生在当前公司内部，但工作流动性在塑造工资轨迹方面起着至关重要的作用。这是一种分类匹配，高生产率的工人流向高生产率的企业，而低生产率的工人流向低生产率的企业。我们的研究结果表明，在员工的整个职业生涯中，企业内的工资增长和通过工作流动性实现的工资增长都有助于工资和生产率之间的紧密联系。

引用次数: 0

Career preferences and socio-economic background 职业偏好和社会经济背景

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102814

Paul Schüle

Career decisions, that is educational and occupational choice, are not only taken by comparing expected incomes, but also by considering non-monetary rewards such as social impact, chances of promotion, or the compatibility of work and family. In this paper, I use rich panel data from Germany and the UK to demonstrate that preferences about such aspects of a career as stated at age 17 are strong predictors of future earnings in the labor market. At the same time, these preferences differ significantly by gender and socio-economic background, and intergenerational income persistence is reduced by 7 to 28 percent when accounting for career preferences.

职业决定，即教育和职业选择，不仅是通过比较预期收入来做出的，而且还考虑到非金钱回报，如社会影响、晋升机会或工作和家庭的兼容性。在本文中，我使用了来自德国和英国的丰富面板数据来证明，17岁时对职业这些方面的偏好是劳动力市场未来收入的有力预测指标。与此同时，这些偏好因性别和社会经济背景而有显著差异，考虑到职业偏好，代际收入持久性降低了7%至28%。

引用次数: 0

Suspended from work and school? Impacts of layoff events and unemployment insurance on student disciplinary incidence 暂停工作和学习？下岗事件与失业保险对学生违纪事件的影响

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102844

Riley K. Acton , Jo R. King , Austin C. Smith

We examine the impact of local labor market shocks and state unemployment insurance (UI) policies on student discipline in U.S. public schools. Analyzing school-level discipline data and firm-level layoffs in 23 states, we find that layoffs have little effect on discipline rates on average. However, effects differ across the UI benefit distribution. At the lowest benefit level ($265/week), a mass layoff increases out-of-school suspensions by 5.1%, with effects dissipating as UI benefits increase. Effects are consistently largest for Black students – especially in predominantly White schools – resulting in increased racial disproportionality in school discipline following layoffs in low-UI states.

我们研究了当地劳动力市场冲击和州失业保险（UI）政策对美国公立学校学生纪律的影响。分析了23个州的学校层面的纪律数据和公司层面的裁员，我们发现裁员对平均纪律率几乎没有影响。然而，在不同的UI利益分配中，效果是不同的。在最低的福利水平（265美元/周），大规模裁员会使校外停学人数增加5.1%，随着失业救济金的增加，效果会逐渐消失。对黑人学生的影响一直最大——尤其是在以白人为主的学校——导致低失业率州裁员后学校纪律的种族比例增加。

引用次数: 0

Does immigration affect native wages? A meta-analysis 移民会影响本地工资吗？一个荟萃分析

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102815

Amandine Aubry , Jérôme Héricourt , Léa Marchal , Clément Nedoncelle

The impact of immigration on native wages remains a contentious issue in labour economics. This meta-analysis synthesises evidence from 88 studies published between 1985 and 2023, offering a comprehensive assessment of reduced-form estimates. We document substantial heterogeneity across estimates and show that contexts and empirical designs systematically shape reported effects. In particular, shift-share instrumental-variable strategies correct the upward bias seen in OLS estimates. Our findings emphasise the necessity for replication and enhanced transparency in methodological reporting.

在劳动经济学中，移民对本地工资的影响仍是一个有争议的问题。这项荟萃分析综合了1985年至2023年间发表的88项研究的证据，对简化形式的估计进行了全面评估。我们记录了估算的实质性异质性，并表明背景和经验设计系统地塑造了报告的效果。特别是，偏移份额工具变量策略纠正了OLS估计中出现的向上偏差。我们的发现强调了在方法学报告中进行复制和提高透明度的必要性。

引用次数: 0

Are households Pareto efficient? A test based on multiple job holding 家庭是否具有帕累托效率？一种基于多份工作的测试

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102841

Jacob Penglase , Ömer F. Sözbir

The collective household model requires that household decisions result in Pareto efficient outcomes. While this assumption is falsifiable, these tests are often difficult to implement due to data limitations or insufficient statistical power. We identify a novel setting—multiple job holding—where these issues are less of an obstacle. Using data from Bangladesh, we estimate the labor supply of households where members are engaged in multiple occupations and use the parameter estimates to test the collective model. We are unable to reject Pareto efficiency, but do find evidence against the unitary model. The results support the use of the collective model as a framework to study the inner workings of the household.

集体家庭模型要求家庭决策产生帕累托有效的结果。虽然这种假设是可证伪的，但由于数据限制或统计能力不足，这些测试通常难以实施。我们确定了一个新颖的设置——多份工作——这些问题不再是障碍。使用来自孟加拉国的数据，我们估计了成员从事多种职业的家庭的劳动力供给，并使用参数估计来检验集体模型。我们无法拒绝帕累托效率，但确实找到了反对单一模型的证据。研究结果支持使用集体模型作为研究家庭内部运作的框架。

引用次数: 0

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