Labour Economics最新文献

英文中文

Women as breadwinners: A multifaceted relocation program and women’s labour market outcomes 妇女作为经济支柱：一个多方面的重新安置计划和妇女劳动力市场的结果

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102784

Yawen Ding , Xiaobing Wang , Alan de Brauw , Huanguang Qiu

This paper exploits the staggered timing of relocations across eligible households to examine its impact on female’s labour market outcomes, under China’s Poverty Alleviation Relocation Program (PARP). Utilizing four waves of household panel data that retrospectively record individuals’ off-farm employment histories from 2011 to 2021, we find that relocation significantly increases the likelihood of off-farm employment among working-age women. However, it has limited effects on their annual working months, monthly wages, and annual earnings once being off-farm employed. Furthermore, the program’s impact on men’s off-farm employment is modest compared to that for women, suggesting that although PARP is designed to be gender-neutral, it has generated more favorable labour market effects for women than for men. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the increase in women’s off-farm employment is more pronounced among those with lower educational attainment, those who are married, those with resident children, as well as those relocated to urban or collective sites. We also provide suggestive evidence that improved time allocation and reshaped social networks may be mechanisms encouraging women to step out of the home.

在中国扶贫搬迁计划（PARP）下，本文利用符合条件的家庭的交错搬迁时间来研究其对女性劳动力市场结果的影响。利用四波家庭面板数据追溯记录个人2011年至2021年的非农就业历史，我们发现搬迁显著增加了劳动年龄妇女非农就业的可能性。然而，它对他们的年工作月、月工资和一旦非农就业的年收入的影响有限。此外，与妇女相比，该方案对男子非农就业的影响不大，这表明，尽管PARP的设计是不分性别的，但它对妇女产生的劳动力市场影响比对男子更有利。异质性分析进一步表明，在受教育程度较低的妇女、已婚妇女、有常住子女的妇女以及搬迁到城市或集体工地的妇女中，非农就业的增加更为明显。我们也提供了暗示性的证据，改善时间分配和重塑社会网络可能是鼓励妇女走出家庭的机制。

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引用次数: 0

Divorce, parental conflicts and child skills: A story of selection 离婚、父母冲突和孩子技能：一个关于选择的故事

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102830

Gloria Moroni , Alexander Vickery

This paper uses data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) to study how parental divorce in early childhood affects a child’s skill development. We estimate a dynamic model of child skill formation that accounts for the endogenous nature of parental divorce including a measure of interparental conflicts. Our results show that the skill disadvantages among children of divorce stem almost entirely from the effects of selection. Here, skill gaps materialise due to disadvantages in household characteristics that also increase divorce risk. Inter-parental conflicts, parental education, and family financial resources emerge as key pre-divorce characteristics that explain divorce gaps in children’s cognitive and socio-emotional skills from age 3, through age 11. Inter-parental conflicts are often unobserved and overlooked in the literature, but our results demonstrate that they indeed play a major role, particularly for gaps in socio-emotional skills. Moreover, such gaps are found to be more pronounced among more vulnerable children, i.e. those with lower levels of socio-emotional skills.

本文使用英国千禧年队列研究（MCS）的数据来研究儿童早期父母离婚如何影响孩子的技能发展。我们估计了一个儿童技能形成的动态模型，该模型解释了父母离婚的内生性质，包括父母间冲突的衡量。我们的研究结果表明，离婚家庭子女的技能劣势几乎完全源于选择的影响。在这里，由于家庭特征上的劣势也增加了离婚风险，技能差距成为现实。父母之间的冲突、父母的教育和家庭的经济资源是离婚前的关键特征，这些特征解释了孩子从3岁到11岁在认知和社会情感技能上的离婚差距。在文献中，父母之间的冲突经常被忽视，但我们的研究结果表明，它们确实发挥了重要作用，特别是在社会情感技能方面的差距。此外，这种差距在更脆弱的儿童中更为明显，即那些社会情感技能水平较低的儿童。

引用次数: 0

How IT-specialized majors pay off: Evidence from an IT industry shock IT专业如何获得回报：来自IT行业冲击的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102785

Tianze Liu

This paper studies how industry-specific shocks affect workers with specialized skills, focusing on the impact of the burst of the dotcom bubble on the careers of IT-specialized college graduates in Sweden. Graduates entering the labor market during the bust faced sharp initial earnings penalties and lower probabilities of IT sector employment compared to boom cohorts. However, they exhibited remarkable resilience, recovering earnings by leveraging their skills in high-paying, non-IT occupations. Incumbent IT workers, while remaining within the IT sector, experienced a decline in earnings as they moved to lower-premium firms.

本文研究了行业特定冲击如何影响具有专业技能的工人，重点研究了网络泡沫破裂对瑞典it专业大学毕业生职业生涯的影响。与繁荣时期的毕业生相比，在萧条时期进入劳动力市场的毕业生最初面临着严重的收入损失，而且在IT行业就业的可能性更低。然而，他们表现出了非凡的弹性，通过在高薪的非it职业中利用他们的技能来恢复收入。在职的IT员工虽然仍留在IT行业，但由于他们转投了薪酬较低的公司，收入有所下降。

引用次数: 0

Peer effects on college choice: Evidence from affirmative action in China 同伴效应对大学选择的影响：来自中国平权行动的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102802

Mengying Peng , Xiaoyang Ye

This paper investigates how peer networks influence ethnic minority students’ participation in China’s affirmative action policies in higher education. Focusing on the Ethnic Minority Preparatory Classes (EMPC) program, which provides admissions advantages to ethnic minority students, we examine whether informal information transmission within peer networks affects program take-up. Using administrative data from Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region between 2014 and 2018, we define peers as ethnic minority students from the same high school and shared the same registered residence in the previous cohort. Leveraging a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that having at least one successfully admitted peer increases the likelihood of EMPC admission by around 2 percentage points (p.p.), a 17% increase relative to the baseline admission rate of 13%. Heterogeneity analyses show that male students and those in non-STEM tracks benefit more, with effects of up to 3 p.p. These findings remain robust across alternative peer definitions and cumulative exposure measures. Additional analyses using data from Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region further underscore the importance of peer networks in shaping information flows that influence the outcomes of affirmative action programs. These findings highlight the critical role of peer networks in reducing informational barriers and underscore the importance of peer group structure, student heterogeneity, and institutional context in shaping the effectiveness of affirmative action policies.

本文研究了同伴网络对少数民族学生参与中国高等教育平权政策的影响。以少数民族预备班（EMPC）项目为研究对象，考察同伴网络中的非正式信息传递是否会影响项目的录取。使用宁夏回族自治区2014 - 2018年的行政数据，我们将同龄人定义为来自同一所高中的少数民族学生，并且在上一个队列中拥有相同的户口。利用差异中的差异策略，我们发现，至少有一个成功入学的同伴增加了EMPC入学的可能性约2个百分点（p.p.），相对于13%的基线入学率增加了17%。异质性分析表明，男性学生和非stem专业的学生受益更多，影响高达3pp。这些发现在不同的同伴定义和累积暴露测量中仍然是强有力的。使用广西壮族自治区数据的其他分析进一步强调了同伴网络在形成影响平权行动项目结果的信息流方面的重要性。这些发现强调了同伴网络在减少信息障碍方面的关键作用，并强调了同伴群体结构、学生异质性和制度背景在塑造平权行动政策有效性方面的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Gender peer effects in university courses: Evidence from tutorial groups 大学课程中的性别同伴效应：来自辅导小组的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102804

Yuxuan Zhang

This paper analyzes the impacts of peer gender composition on students’ educational outcomes using administrative records from a world top-ranking university in Singapore.¹ Leveraging a unique tutorial balloting system at the university, I explore the near-random variation in gender composition across different tutorial groups within the same course. A modified version of the commonly used balance test method from the literature is applied to demonstrate random fluctuations in gender ratio across tutorial groups. At the baseline, I found positive and significant impact of having more female peers on both male and female students’ academic performance. Nevertheless, there are substantial heterogeneity across student-level characteristics. This paper, in particular, also established a direct comparison of gender peer effects between quantitative and qualitative fields and found asymmetric impacts on male and female students. Overall, the results imply that the impacts of peer gender composition vary considerably across contexts and policy construction must account for this variability instead of aiming for a one-size-fits-all solution.

本文利用新加坡一所世界一流大学的行政记录，分析了同龄人性别构成对学生教育成果的影响。1利用该大学独特的导师组投票系统，我探索了同一课程中不同导师组性别构成的近乎随机变化。本文采用文献中常用的平衡测试方法的改进版本来证明辅导小组性别比例的随机波动。在基线上，我发现有更多的女性同伴对男女学生的学习成绩都有积极而显著的影响。然而，在学生水平的特征上存在着实质性的异质性。特别的是，本文还建立了定量和定性领域性别同伴效应的直接比较，发现男女学生的影响不对称。总体而言，研究结果表明，同龄人性别构成的影响在不同背景下差异很大，政策建设必须考虑到这种差异，而不是以一刀切的解决方案为目标。

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引用次数: 0

The effects of tenure-track systems on selection and productivity in Economics 经济学中终身职位制度对人才选择和生产力的影响

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102779

Marco Giovanni Nieddu , Roberto Nisticò , Lorenzo Pandolfi

This paper examines how publication-based tenure-track systems affect the careers of Ph.D. graduates in Economics. We leverage a 2010 reform in Italy that replaced open-ended assistant professor (AP) positions with fixed-term contracts and introduced publication minimum requirements for career advancement. Using survey and administrative data, along with a Difference-in-Differences Event-Study approach comparing Economics to less academically-oriented fields, we find that the reform significantly reduced the likelihood of Economics Ph.D. graduates entering academia in Italy, while increasing transitions to academic careers abroad or to public and private sector jobs. Talented graduates were disproportionately affected, revealing negative selection into Italian academia following the removal of permanent AP positions. Despite these trends, tenure-track hires tend to publish more in high-ranking journals, suggesting that the reform’s incentive effects may partly mitigate its negative selection effects.

本文考察了基于出版物的终身职位制度如何影响经济学博士毕业生的职业生涯。我们利用意大利2010年的改革，用固定期限合同取代了开放式助理教授职位，并引入了职业晋升的最低出版要求。利用调查和行政数据，以及将经济学与较少学术导向的领域进行比较的差异事件研究方法，我们发现改革显著降低了经济学博士毕业生进入意大利学术界的可能性，同时增加了向国外学术职业或公共和私营部门工作的过渡。有才华的毕业生受到了不成比例的影响，这揭示了在取消AP永久职位后，意大利学术界的负面选择。尽管有这些趋势，但聘用的终身教职员工倾向于在高级期刊上发表更多文章，这表明改革的激励效应可能在一定程度上缓解了其负面的选择效应。

引用次数: 0

Long-run impacts of fertility restriction policy on China’s gender gap in career advancement 生育限制政策对中国职业发展性别差距的长期影响

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102782

Chen Chen

This paper examines the impact of China’s family planning policies in the 1970s (“Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign) on the long-term career advancement of men and women. Despite the high female labor force participation rates, I use a cohort Triple-Difference approach and find a significant gender gap in achieving managerial positions among those affected by the policies, with average exposure reducing these disparities by 20%. The narrowing of the gender gap is more pronounced for women in non-white-collar or non-female-dominated industries, where fewer institutional advantages leave women more vulnerable to fertility-related career disruptions. Women more exposed to family planning policies tend to seek college education, increase labor input, and rely less on offspring for old-age support, with no analogous findings in men, suggesting that human capital accumulation is a key mechanism for the narrowing of the gender gap in career outcomes. This paper underscores the capacity of policy interventions to influence labor market dynamics and foster gender equality.

本文考察了20世纪70年代中国计划生育政策（“晚、长、少”运动）对男女长期职业发展的影响。尽管女性劳动力参与率很高，但我使用了队列三重差异方法，发现受政策影响的女性在获得管理职位方面存在显著的性别差距，平均暴露将这些差距缩小了20%。在非白领或非女性主导行业的女性中，性别差距的缩小更为明显，在这些行业，制度优势较少，女性更容易受到与生育相关的职业中断的影响。受计划生育政策影响更大的女性倾向于寻求大学教育，增加劳动投入，对子女养老的依赖程度更低，而男性则没有类似的发现，这表明人力资本积累是缩小职业成果性别差距的关键机制。本文强调了政策干预影响劳动力市场动态和促进性别平等的能力。

引用次数: 0

The two faces of worker specialization 工人专业化的两面

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102829

Zsófia L. Bárány , Kerstin Holzheu

We study how worker specialization — the distance between a worker’s skill set and those prevalent in the labor market — shapes employment outcomes. Using US and French data, we first document that specialized jobs are characterized by asymmetric skill profiles and a scarcity of nearby employment opportunities. We incorporate these features into a random search model with multidimensional skills, mismatch penalties and skill complementarity. We show that specialization lowers job-finding rates due to a lack of suitable jobs, but raises re-employment wages via improved productivity. Empirical evidence from displaced workers in both countries confirms these predictions. Our findings reconcile competing views in the literature by showing that specialization entails trade-offs and is neither uniformly beneficial nor harmful.

我们研究工人专业化——工人的技能与劳动力市场中普遍存在的技能之间的距离——如何影响就业结果。利用美国和法国的数据，我们首先证明了专业工作的特点是技能不对称和附近就业机会的稀缺。我们将这些特征整合到一个具有多维技能、错配惩罚和技能互补的随机搜索模型中。我们表明，专业化由于缺乏合适的工作而降低了就业率，但通过提高生产率提高了再就业工资。来自两国失业工人的经验证据证实了这些预测。我们的研究结果调和了文献中相互矛盾的观点，表明专业化需要权衡，既不总是有益的，也不总是有害的。

引用次数: 0

Replacing labour with capital: Evidence from aggregate mobility shocks 用资本取代劳动力：来自总体流动性冲击的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102832

Bharadwaj Kannan , Roberto Pinheiro , Harry J. Turtle

Do firms respond to labour mobility shocks? We construct an overlapping generations model where policies restricting labour mobility present firms with an important trade-off. Firms leverage their monopsony power to reduce late-career wages while early-career workers demand a wage premium to join the restricted sector. In response to higher labour turnover costs, firms alter their optimal capital–labour ratio. We confirm these predictions in the data by exploiting the statewide adoption by state supreme courts of the inevitable disclosure doctrine (IDD) as a valid legal doctrine intended to protect trade secrets by restricting labour mobility. Post-IDD, early-career workers receive higher starting wages, late-career workers experience slower wage growth, firms raise investment by 3.5%, and their capital–labour ratio by 5.5%. Our results suggest that firms respond meaningfully to labour mobility shocks by replacing labour with capital.

企业对劳动力流动冲击有反应吗？我们构建了一个代际重叠模型，其中限制劳动力流动的政策给企业带来了重要的权衡。公司利用他们的垄断力量来降低后期职业的工资，而早期职业的工人则要求工资溢价才能加入受限制的行业。为了应对更高的劳动力流动成本，企业改变了其最优资本劳动比。我们通过利用州最高法院在全州范围内采用的不可避免的披露原则（IDD）作为旨在通过限制劳动力流动来保护商业秘密的有效法律原则，在数据中证实了这些预测。在idd之后，早期职业工作者的起薪更高，晚期职业工作者的工资增长较慢，企业将投资提高3.5%，资本劳动比率提高5.5%。我们的研究结果表明，企业通过用资本取代劳动力来有效地应对劳动力流动性冲击。

引用次数: 0

Do levy penalties boost disability hiring in SMEs? Evidence from a Japanese quota reform 征收罚款会否促进中小企业聘用残疾人士？来自日本配额改革的证据

IF 2.6 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102831

Kodai Matsumoto , Yota Okumura , Atsushi Morimoto , Kazufumi Yugami

Financial incentives can shape firms’ compliance with employment quotas, yet their effectiveness remains contested. This study examines whether Japan’s levy-grant system for disability employment promotes hiring in small and medium-sized enterprises. Using administrative data on statutory quota compliance, we exploit a 2015 reform—lowering the coverage threshold from firms with more than 200 to more than 100 employees—as a natural experiment. Difference-in-differences estimates, supplemented by regression discontinuity analysis, reveal heterogeneous effects by pre-reform compliance status. Firms already meeting the quota expanded disability employment in anticipation of the reform, thereby avoiding future levies, while non-compliant firms increased hiring only after coverage took effect. Near the 100-employee threshold, the policy raised the number of employees with disabilities by 0.2–0.3 persons, the employment rate by 0.2–0.3 percentage points, and the probability of employing at least one person with a disability by 12–15 percentage points. Effects weakened after about seven years, and no evidence was found that grants induced further hiring among compliant firms. Sectoral estimates show larger effects in manufacturing, consistent with accumulated know-how that lowers adaptation costs. These results suggest that levy penalties, rather than grants, drive early employment gains, particularly among firms previously out of compliance.

财政激励可以影响企业对就业配额的遵守，但其有效性仍有争议。本研究探讨日本残障就业征费补助制度是否能促进中小企业的就业。利用法定配额合规的行政数据，我们利用2015年的改革——将员工人数超过200人的企业的覆盖门槛降低到100人以上——作为一个自然实验。差异中的差异估计，辅以回归不连续分析，揭示了改革前合规状态的异质性效应。已经达到配额的企业在预期改革的情况下扩大了残疾人就业，从而避免了未来的征税，而不符合配额的企业只有在保险生效后才增加了招聘。在100名员工门槛附近，该政策将残疾员工人数提高0.2-0.3人，就业率提高0.2-0.3个百分点，雇用至少一名残疾人的概率提高12-15个百分点。大约七年后，这种影响减弱了，没有证据表明拨款会促使合规公司进一步招聘。行业估计显示，制造业受到的影响更大，这与降低适应成本的积累技术相一致。这些结果表明，征收罚款，而不是补助，推动了早期就业的增长，特别是在以前不遵守规定的公司中。

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