Journal of Comparative Economics最新文献

英文中文

Exchanging money for love? A regional analysis of EU cohesion policy and Euroscepticism 用金钱换爱？欧盟凝聚力政策与欧洲怀疑主义的区域分析

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.10.003

Michael Bayerlein , Matthias Diermeier

In the past, the European Union was able to tame Euroscepticism through regional ‘convergence’ funding. Meanwhile, new member states became the largest recipients of EU funding, but shifted from being the most supportive of integration to showing the strongest opposition. Motivated by this puzzle, we revisit the relationship between ‘convergence’ funding and Euroscepticism. In contrast to utilitarian economic theory, our empirical analysis finds no general relationship between EU funding and support for the EU. Nevertheless, by accounting for successful post-funding convergence and awareness of EU funding, we identify under which conditions ‘convergence’ funding can tame Euroscepticism. Focusing on successfully converging regions after receiving EU funding, we uncover positive trends in EU unification preferences. Finally, we show that the EU is able to win support in Eastern Europe where people are more aware of EU investments. Rather than expanding its fiscal capacity, Brussels must focus on place-based ‘convergence’ funding that stimulates economic growth and is unambiguously associated with the EU.

在过去，欧盟能够通过地区“趋同”资金来驯服欧洲怀疑主义。与此同时，新成员国成为欧盟资金的最大接收国，但从最支持一体化转变为最强烈反对一体化。在这个困惑的驱使下，我们重新审视了“趋同”资助与欧洲怀疑主义之间的关系。与功利主义经济理论相反，我们的实证分析发现，欧盟资助与对欧盟的支持之间没有普遍的关系。然而，通过考虑成功的资助后趋同和对欧盟资助的认识，我们确定了在哪些条件下“趋同”资助可以驯服欧洲怀疑主义。我们着眼于在获得欧盟资助后成功实现地区融合，揭示了欧盟统一偏好的积极趋势。最后，我们表明欧盟能够在东欧赢得支持，那里的人们更了解欧盟的投资。布鲁塞尔必须专注于基于地方的“趋同”融资，而不是扩大其财政能力，以刺激经济增长，并明确与欧盟联系在一起。

{"title":"Exchanging money for love? A regional analysis of EU cohesion policy and Euroscepticism","authors":"Michael Bayerlein , Matthias Diermeier","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the past, the European Union was able to tame Euroscepticism through regional ‘convergence’ funding. Meanwhile, new member states became the largest recipients of EU funding, but shifted from being the most supportive of integration to showing the strongest opposition. Motivated by this puzzle, we revisit the relationship between ‘convergence’ funding and Euroscepticism. In contrast to utilitarian economic theory, our empirical analysis finds no general relationship between EU funding and support for the EU. Nevertheless, by accounting for successful post-funding convergence and awareness of EU funding, we identify under which conditions ‘convergence’ funding can tame Euroscepticism. Focusing on successfully converging regions after receiving EU funding, we uncover positive trends in EU unification preferences. Finally, we show that the EU is able to win support in Eastern Europe where people are more aware of EU investments. Rather than expanding its fiscal capacity, Brussels must focus on place-based ‘convergence’ funding that stimulates economic growth and is unambiguously associated with the EU.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"53 4","pages":"Pages 1118-1132"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145594639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global value chains: Do they impact the allocation of foreign aid? 全球价值链：它们会影响外援的分配吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.007

Basak Bayramoglu , Jean-François Jacques , Julie Lochard

The rise of global value chains (GVCs) in recent decades has induced significant changes in the geography of world production, with consequences for bilateral relations. What are the consequences of GVC-related bilateral trade for the allocation of bilateral foreign aid? Using data on bilateral aid from 22 donors to 127 recipient countries over 2000-2018, our findings, robust to endogeneity, show that a larger participation of the recipient country in GVCs increases the amount of aid allocated to that country. To rationalize these findings, we develop a theoretical model that provides a simple explanation for the existence of transfers among countries: foreign aid allows a donor country producing a final good to buy less expensive intermediate inputs from an upstream country. Overall, this suggests that donors allocate aid strategically to import inputs at a lower cost.

近几十年来，全球价值链（GVCs）的兴起引起了世界生产地理的重大变化，并对双边关系产生了影响。与全球价值链相关的双边贸易对双边外援的分配有何影响？利用2000年至2018年间22个捐助国对127个受援国的双边援助数据，我们的研究结果表明，受援国在全球价值链中的参与度越高，分配给该国的援助金额就会增加。为了使这些发现合理化，我们开发了一个理论模型，为国家间转移的存在提供了一个简单的解释：外援允许生产最终产品的捐助国从上游国家购买更便宜的中间投入。总的来说，这表明捐助者战略性地将援助分配给以较低成本进口投入的国家。

引用次数: 0

Did Industrialization increase support for the radical left? Evidence from the 1917 Russian revolution 工业化是否增加了对激进左派的支持？1917年俄国革命的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.001

Paul Castañeda Dower , Andrei Markevich

We analyze the 1917 Constituent Assembly elections – the only free universal elections in Russia before the 1990s – to estimate the effect of industrialization on the radicalization of the electorate in a late industrializing economy. Our empirical strategy exploits IV estimation based on the proximity of Carboniferous strata and other initial conditions of industrialization. We find that a larger share of industrial workers increases voting for the radical left, and the effect is stronger in places that exhibited more pronounced features of late industrialization. We also show that industrialization increases electoral polarization rather than simply shifting the electorate to the left.

我们分析了1917年的制宪会议选举——20世纪90年代之前俄罗斯唯一的自由普选——以估计工业化对晚期工业化经济中选民激进化的影响。我们的经验策略利用了基于石炭系地层接近度和其他工业化初始条件的IV估计。我们发现，更大比例的产业工人增加了对激进左翼的投票，并且在表现出更明显的晚期工业化特征的地方，这种影响更强。我们还表明，工业化加剧了选举两极分化，而不是简单地将选民转向左翼。

引用次数: 0

Transnational diffusion of identity politics 身份政治的跨国扩散

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.005

Soeren C. Schwuchow

We study a model of multidimensional politics in which voting decisions are shaped not only by voters’ preferences regarding redistribution but also by their identities. In our framework, which focus on nationalism, voters can trade material gains from redistribution for immaterial benefits from identity politics (i.e. more/less nationalism). Building on this widely accepted approach, we propose a novel channel for the transnational diffusion of identity politics. Specifically, we argue that changes in identity-related policies abroad can affect domestic voting behaviour through two mechanisms: First, by changing voters’ perceptions of the social acceptability of identities, and second, by changing the perceived relative benefits of adopting particular identities. Both mechanisms yield positive spillovers from foreign to domestic identity politics that originate from the domestic voters. Based on this approach, our model shows that temporary shocks (i.e. events that induce more/less domestic identity politics) can lead to permanent changes in the composition of the domestic society and thus in domestic identity politics. This result is driven by cultural rigidity when voters are able to intentionally adopt new identities. Such rigidity helps to stabilise the society by reducing extreme swings in societal identity composition, but also prevents voters from adopting individually optimal identities. Our model also highlights the influence of identity-based groups. Even without direct political influence, they can provide intrinsic benefits to members and consolidate group power, thereby becoming catalysts for future political influence. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for policy making, highlighting the role of access to information and education.

我们研究了一个多维政治模型，在这个模型中，投票决定不仅受到选民对再分配的偏好的影响，还受到他们身份的影响。在我们关注民族主义的框架中，选民可以从再分配中获得物质利益，以换取身份政治（即更多/更少的民族主义）带来的非物质利益。在这种被广泛接受的方法的基础上，我们提出了一种身份政治跨国传播的新渠道。具体而言，我们认为国外身份相关政策的变化可以通过两种机制影响国内的投票行为：首先，通过改变选民对身份的社会可接受性的看法，其次，通过改变采用特定身份的感知相对利益。这两种机制都会产生积极的外溢效应，从国外到国内的身份政治都源于国内选民。基于这种方法，我们的模型表明，暂时的冲击（即引发或多或少国内认同政治的事件）可以导致国内社会构成的永久性变化，从而导致国内认同政治的永久性变化。当选民能够有意地接受新的身份时，这种结果是由文化僵化所驱动的。这种刚性通过减少社会身份构成的极端波动有助于稳定社会，但也阻止选民采用个人最优身份。我们的模型还强调了基于身份的群体的影响。即使没有直接的政治影响，它们也可以为成员提供内在利益，巩固集团权力，从而成为未来政治影响的催化剂。最后，我们讨论了我们的研究结果对政策制定的影响，强调了获取信息和教育的作用。

{"title":"Transnational diffusion of identity politics","authors":"Soeren C. Schwuchow","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study a model of multidimensional politics in which voting decisions are shaped not only by voters’ preferences regarding redistribution but also by their identities. In our framework, which focus on nationalism, voters can trade material gains from redistribution for immaterial benefits from identity politics (i.e. more/less nationalism). Building on this widely accepted approach, we propose a novel channel for the transnational diffusion of identity politics. Specifically, we argue that changes in identity-related policies abroad can affect domestic voting behaviour through two mechanisms: First, by changing voters’ perceptions of the social acceptability of identities, and second, by changing the perceived relative benefits of adopting particular identities. Both mechanisms yield positive spillovers from foreign to domestic identity politics that originate from the domestic voters. Based on this approach, our model shows that temporary shocks (i.e. events that induce more/less domestic identity politics) can lead to permanent changes in the composition of the domestic society and thus in domestic identity politics. This result is driven by cultural rigidity when voters are able to intentionally adopt new identities. Such rigidity helps to stabilise the society by reducing extreme swings in societal identity composition, but also prevents voters from adopting individually optimal identities. Our model also highlights the influence of identity-based groups. Even without direct political influence, they can provide intrinsic benefits to members and consolidate group power, thereby becoming catalysts for future political influence. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for policy making, highlighting the role of access to information and education.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"53 4","pages":"Pages 1069-1091"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145594637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Calamities, common interests, shared identity: What shapes social cohesion in Europe? 灾难、共同利益、共同身份：是什么塑造了欧洲的社会凝聚力？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.009

Cevat Giray Aksoy , Antonio Cabrales , Mathias Dolls , Ruben Durante , Lisa Windsteiger

We conduct a large-scale incentivized survey experiment in nine EU countries to study how priming common economic interests (EU trade), a shared identity (EU common values), and a major health crisis (COVID-19), influences altruism, reciprocity and trust of EU citizens. We find that the COVID-19 treatment increases altruism and reciprocity towards compatriots, as well as altruism towards citizens of other EU countries. The EU common values treatment has similar effects and in addition also boosts reciprocity towards fellow Europeans. The EU trade treatment has no tangible impact on behavior. Trust in others is not affected by any treatment. Our results suggest that both a shared identity and a shared crisis can have a unifying effect among EU citizens, while shared economic interests (alone) do not significantly affect European cohesion.

我们在9个欧盟国家进行了一项大规模激励调查实验，研究共同经济利益（欧盟贸易）、共同身份（欧盟共同价值观）和重大健康危机（COVID-19）如何影响欧盟公民的利他主义、互惠和信任。我们发现，新冠肺炎治疗增加了对同胞的利他主义和互惠主义，也增加了对其他欧盟国家公民的利他主义。欧盟共同价值待遇也有类似的效果，此外还促进了对欧洲同胞的互惠。欧盟的贸易待遇对行为没有实际影响。对他人的信任不受任何待遇的影响。我们的研究结果表明，共同的身份认同和共同的危机都能在欧盟公民之间产生统一效应，而共同的经济利益（单独）对欧洲凝聚力没有显著影响。

引用次数: 0

Open-source information and repression 开源信息和压制

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.006

Manuel Oechslin

With information-gathering devices like smartphones and drones proliferating, the likelihood that acts of government incompetence or wrongdoing leave relevant traces in the public domain steadily rises. The current paper proposes an applied game-theoretic model to explore how an incumbent politician with reelection concerns responds to this rise in open-source information. The analysis shows that an inherent aspect of the rise is a tendency towards heightened repression. In the model, if executive power is not sufficiently checked, the incumbent escalates hidden repression against free speech. Consequently, the electorate receives less, rather than more, information about the type of the incumbent – and the prospect of electoral defeat due to incompetence diminishes. The model’s predictions align with recent global trends in freedom of expression. The analysis stresses the rising importance of fortifying institutions that safeguard free speech and warns that international bodies like the European Union will be subject to growing centrifugal forces.

随着智能手机和无人机等信息收集设备的激增，政府无能或不法行为在公共领域留下相关痕迹的可能性稳步上升。本文提出了一个应用博弈论模型来探讨有连任问题的现任政治家如何应对开源信息的增加。分析表明，这种上升的一个内在方面是一种加强压制的趋势。在该模型中，如果行政权力没有得到充分的制约，现任者就会升级对言论自由的隐性压制。因此，选民获得的有关现任总统类型的信息更少，而不是更多——由于无能而导致选举失败的可能性也会降低。该模型的预测与最近全球言论自由的趋势一致。该分析强调了加强保护言论自由的机构的重要性，并警告说，像欧盟这样的国际机构将受到越来越大的离心力的影响。

引用次数: 0

(Market) power is (political) power! The pressure of declining competition on democracy （市场）力量就是（政治）力量！竞争减弱对民主的压力

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.010

Seda Basihos

I study how the concentration of market power among a restricted set of corporates leads to a concentration of political power that ultimately undermines democracy. Despite being a topic of longstanding discussion, this type of mechanism lacks empirical confirmation or rejection. My paper addresses this gap by shedding light on two global trends: increasing aggregate markups and democratic backsliding. Using panel data covering 80 countries (1990–2019), I identify a negative relationship between market power and democracy. After correcting for potential endogeneity, counterfactual estimates reveal that around a quarter of the recent democratic decline can be attributed to the concentration of market power. A detailed firm-level analysis confirms that the democracy-weakening effect is driven by the increasing political influence of high-markup firms at the very top of the size distribution. The findings show that this concentration of power undermines democracy directly through institutional erosion—by increasing corruption in electoral processes and across multiple dimensions of democratic governance, such as policy-making, implementation, and regulation.

我研究的是，市场力量集中在少数公司手中，如何导致政治力量集中，最终破坏民主。尽管这是一个长期讨论的话题，但这种机制缺乏经验证实或拒绝。我的论文通过揭示两种全球趋势来解决这一差距：不断增加的总加价和民主倒退。使用覆盖80个国家（1990-2019）的面板数据，我确定了市场力量与民主之间的负相关关系。在对潜在的内生性进行校正后，反事实的估计显示，近期民主衰落的大约四分之一可归因于市场力量的集中。一项详细的公司层面分析证实，民主弱化效应是由规模分布最顶端的高利润率公司日益增长的政治影响力所驱动的。研究结果表明，这种权力集中通过制度侵蚀直接破坏民主——通过增加选举过程中的腐败以及民主治理的多个维度，如决策、实施和监管。

{"title":"(Market) power is (political) power! The pressure of declining competition on democracy","authors":"Seda Basihos","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study how the concentration of market power among a restricted set of corporates leads to a concentration of political power that ultimately undermines democracy. Despite being a topic of longstanding discussion, this type of mechanism lacks empirical confirmation or rejection. My paper addresses this gap by shedding light on two global trends: increasing aggregate markups and democratic backsliding. Using panel data covering 80 countries (1990–2019), I identify a negative relationship between market power and democracy. After correcting for potential endogeneity, counterfactual estimates reveal that around a quarter of the recent democratic decline can be attributed to the concentration of market power. A detailed firm-level analysis confirms that the democracy-weakening effect is driven by the increasing political influence of high-markup firms at the very top of the size distribution. The findings show that this concentration of power undermines democracy directly through institutional erosion—by increasing corruption in electoral processes and across multiple dimensions of democratic governance, such as policy-making, implementation, and regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"53 4","pages":"Pages 1092-1117"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145594638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Synchronized elections strengthen party salience: Evidence from a decentralized democracy 同步选举加强了政党的突出性：来自分散民主的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.004

Vimal Balasubramaniam , Apurav Yash Bhatiya , Sabyasachi Das

Voters participate in multiple elections across governance tiers, often on the same day. We investigate how synchronizing two salient elections influences voter behavior and electoral outcomes, leveraging variation in the timing of national and state elections in India. We find that synchronized elections, compared to closely timed but asynchronous elections, increase political parties’ salience among voters, boosting straight-ticket voting with a small increase in turnout. These effects result in a 21% higher probability of the same political party winning across tiers, without altering candidate composition. While synchronization significantly influences state government formation, it does not affect development outcomes. We provide suggestive evidence that voters’ cognitive constraints and increased party campaigning are likely mechanisms. A synchronized election design in decentralized democracies like India can therefore affect the relative importance of parties vis-a-vis candidates during elections and potentially shape the nature of political decentralization.

选民通常在同一天参加跨治理层的多次选举。我们利用印度全国和各邦选举时间的变化，研究同步进行的两场重要选举如何影响选民行为和选举结果。我们发现，与时间紧但不同步的选举相比，同步选举增加了政党在选民中的知名度，在投票率小幅增加的情况下促进了直接投票。这些影响导致同一政党在不改变候选人构成的情况下，跨层级获胜的概率提高21%。虽然同步性显著影响州政府的组成，但并不影响发展成果。我们提供了启发性的证据，表明选民的认知约束和政党竞选活动的增加可能是机制。因此，在印度这样的分权民主国家，同步选举设计可能会影响选举期间政党相对于候选人的相对重要性，并可能塑造政治分权的本质。

引用次数: 0

Higher education funding, welfare and inequality in equilibrium 高等教育经费、福利和不平等处于平衡状态

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.011

Gustavo Mellior

This paper analyses quantitatively the effect that higher education funding policies have on welfare and inequality. We evaluate five different higher education financing schemes with a heterogeneous agent model in continuous time. When educational costs are small, differences in outcomes across systems are negligible. As the cost of education and the share of debtors in society rises, it becomes preferable to fund education with subsidies, instead of student loans, as there is a pecuniary externality that arises with debt. Although subsidies can generate large steady state welfare gains, transition costs can be large enough to justify the status quo. The exception, full subsidy with graduate taxes, yields substantial welfare gains, even when taking into account transitional dynamics.

本文定量分析了高等教育经费政策对福利和不平等的影响。本文利用异构代理模型在连续时间下对五种不同的高等教育融资方案进行了评价。当教育成本很小时，不同系统之间的结果差异可以忽略不计。随着教育成本和债务人在社会中所占比例的上升，用补贴而不是学生贷款为教育提供资金变得更可取，因为债务会产生一种货币外部性。尽管补贴可以带来稳定的国家福利收益，但过渡成本可能大到足以证明维持现状是合理的。例外情况是，全额补贴加上毕业税，即使考虑到过渡动态，也能产生可观的福利收益。

引用次数: 0

Biting the hand that teaches: Unraveling the economic impact of banning private tutoring in China 咬老师的手：揭示中国禁止私人辅导的经济影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Comparative Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.002

Zibin Huang , Yinan Liu , Mingming Ma , Leo Yang Yang

Shadow education in China is a significant social issue and a leading factor in exacerbating education inequality that fosters over-competition. In July 2021, the Chinese government implemented the Double Reduction Policy, which banned for-profit academic private tutoring. We estimate the economic consequences of this policy on the education industry in China by employing two novel datasets containing online job postings and firm registration information. We find that within four months after the policy implementation, online job postings for tutoring-related firms decreased by 89%, tutoring-related firm entries decreased by 50%, and their exits tripled. Cities with 10,000 (2%) more children lost 50 (2.2%) more education-related job opportunities, experienced 0.4 (2.8%) fewer firm entries, and 0.03 (0.8%) more firm exits per month. Surprisingly, not only academic tutoring firms were impacted, but also untargeted businesses involving in arts and sports tutoring were heavily struck, although they were encouraged by the policy to promote children’s non-academic ability. This negative spillover can be partly explained by the interconnected ownership structure among academic and non-academic tutoring firms. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that this policy led to 3 million job losses in four months and at least 11 billion RMB Value Added Tax losses in 18 months nationally.

在中国，影子教育是一个重要的社会问题，也是加剧教育不平等、助长过度竞争的主要因素。2021年7月，中国政府实施了双减政策，禁止营利性学术家教。我们通过使用两个包含在线招聘信息和公司注册信息的新数据集来估计这一政策对中国教育行业的经济影响。我们发现，在政策实施后的4个月内，辅导相关企业的在线招聘信息减少了89%，辅导相关企业的入职人数减少了50%，退出人数增加了两倍。拥有1万（2%）多孩子的城市每月多失去50个（2.2%）与教育相关的工作机会，每月少0.4个（2.8%）公司进入，多0.03个（0.8%）公司退出。令人惊讶的是，不仅学术辅导公司受到了影响，涉及艺术和体育辅导的非目标企业也受到了严重打击，尽管这些企业受到了促进儿童非学术能力的政策的鼓励。这种负面溢出效应可以部分解释为学术和非学术辅导公司之间相互关联的所有权结构。粗略计算，这项政策导致全国4个月内失业300万人，18个月内增值税损失至少110亿元。

{"title":"Biting the hand that teaches: Unraveling the economic impact of banning private tutoring in China","authors":"Zibin Huang , Yinan Liu , Mingming Ma , Leo Yang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shadow education in China is a significant social issue and a leading factor in exacerbating education inequality that fosters over-competition. In July 2021, the Chinese government implemented the Double Reduction Policy, which banned for-profit academic private tutoring. We estimate the economic consequences of this policy on the education industry in China by employing two novel datasets containing online job postings and firm registration information. We find that within four months after the policy implementation, online job postings for tutoring-related firms decreased by 89%, tutoring-related firm entries decreased by 50%, and their exits tripled. Cities with 10,000 (2%) more children lost 50 (2.2%) more education-related job opportunities, experienced 0.4 (2.8%) fewer firm entries, and 0.03 (0.8%) more firm exits per month. Surprisingly, not only academic tutoring firms were impacted, but also untargeted businesses involving in arts and sports tutoring were heavily struck, although they were encouraged by the policy to promote children’s non-academic ability. This negative spillover can be partly explained by the interconnected ownership structure among academic and non-academic tutoring firms. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that this policy led to 3 million job losses in four months and at least 11 billion RMB Value Added Tax losses in 18 months nationally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"53 4","pages":"Pages 954-976"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145594632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Journal of Comparative Economics

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀