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Mass migration and natives’ health at birth: Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey 大规模移民与本地人出生时的健康:来自流入土耳其的叙利亚难民的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.08.003
Siwar Khelifa
This study examines the effects of prenatal exposure to the sudden arrival of more than three million Syrian refugees in Turkey on natives’ health at birth. The empirical strategy exploits the geographical variation in refugee intensity across provinces and employs a distance-based instrument to address endogeneity in settlement patterns. Results show that higher refugee intensity is associated with a decrease in average birth weight and an increase in the prevalence of low birth weight, along with suggestive evidence of shorter gestational length. However, no significant relationship is found with prematurity or male-selective fetal loss. These findings suggest that the health impacts of refugee inflows on host communities may emerge earlier and be more pervasive than previously recognized.
这项研究调查了300多万叙利亚难民突然抵达土耳其对当地人出生时健康的影响。经验战略利用各省难民强度的地理差异,并采用基于距离的工具来解决定居模式的内生性问题。结果表明,较高的难民强度与平均出生体重下降和低出生体重发生率增加有关,同时也与较短的妊娠期有关。然而,未发现与早产或男性选择性胎儿丢失有显著关系。这些发现表明,难民流入对收容社区的健康影响可能比以前认识到的更早出现,也更普遍。
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引用次数: 0
Export expansion, demand for external finance, and regional financial development: Evidence from China 出口扩张、外部融资需求与区域金融发展:来自中国的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.11.001
Dahai Fu , Yi Lu , Shufei Wang
Why did China’s export boom not boost its financial development? This paper offers a novel explanation from a regional perspective. We leverage variations in industries’ external finance dependence (EFD) and decompose a region’s export shock into two additive subcomponents: high-EFD and low-EFD export shocks. Our findings reveal that the export expansion of high-EFD industries significantly enhances financial development, while that of low-EFD industries diminishes it. Therefore, the lack of response in China’s financial development to its export expansion stems from the prevalence of regions specializing in low-EFD industries. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for industry-specific variations in external finance dependence when analyzing the demand effects of regional export expansion.
为什么中国的出口繁荣没有促进其金融发展?本文从区域视角提出了一种新的解释。我们利用行业外部融资依赖(EFD)的变化,并将一个地区的出口冲击分解为两个附加的子组件:高EFD和低EFD出口冲击。研究结果表明,高出口依存度产业的出口扩张显著促进了金融发展,而低出口依存度产业的出口扩张则抑制了金融发展。因此,中国金融发展对其出口扩张缺乏响应的原因是低efd产业专区普遍存在。我们的研究强调了在分析区域出口扩张的需求效应时,考虑外部融资依赖的行业特定变化的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of input-trade liberalization on firms’ borrowings 投入贸易自由化对企业借贷的影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.008
Farida Abdelsalam, Maria Bas
Trade liberalization creates incentives for firms to upgrade domestic and foreign technology, embodied in imported intermediate and capital goods, which play a central role in the economic growth of developing countries. Firms require access to financial resources to pay the fixed cost of technology upgrading and sourcing foreign inputs from abroad. This paper investigates the micro-economic effects of input-trade liberalization on firms’ demand of external finance. Relying on firm-level data during India’s trade liberalization episode in the early 1990s, we present novel evidence on the relationship between exogenous changes in input tariffs across industries over time and within-firm changes in borrowings. We demonstrate that firms sourcing inputs from abroad and producing in industries that have experienced greater input tariff reductions experienced a higher increase in borrowings. The 33 percentage points decrease in input tariffs over the period is associated with almost 13 percent increase in the borrowings of firms that source inputs from abroad. This empirical finding is robust to alternative specifications that control for alternative explanations.
贸易自由化为公司提高国内和外国技术创造了激励,体现在进口中间产品和资本货物上,这在发展中国家的经济增长中起着中心作用。企业需要获得财政资源来支付技术升级和从国外采购外国投入的固定成本。本文研究了投入贸易自由化对企业外部融资需求的微观影响。根据20世纪90年代初印度贸易自由化时期的企业层面数据,我们提出了新的证据,证明了随着时间的推移,各行业投入关税的外生变化与企业内部借款变化之间的关系。我们证明,从国外采购投入并在投入关税削减幅度较大的行业中生产的企业,其借款的增幅更高。在此期间,投入关税降低了33个百分点,与此同时,从国外采购投入的企业的借款增加了近13%。这一实证发现对于控制替代解释的替代规范是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and gender dynamics: The impact of policy uncertainty on sex ratios at birth in China 贸易自由化与性别动态:政策不确定性对中国出生人口性别比的影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.11.002
Fan He , Wei Huang , Tim F. Liao , Yuanyuan Ma
This paper investigates how trade liberalization affects gender imbalance at birth in China. By combining Census data with household and firm survey data as well as regional data and employing the linear probability difference-in-differences method, we provide evidence for the pivotal role of declining trade policy uncertainty in reducing the sex ratio at birth in China since the establishment of permanent normal trade relations between China and the United States in 2002. Our results show that a one standard deviation decline in trade policy uncertainty leads to a decline of 11.7% in the sex ratio of second births when the first child is a girl in rural households in China. This decline accounts for approximately 60% of the overall reduction in the sex ratio for this type of birth during this period, a period prior to the ease of China’s one-child policy. More importantly, further analyses reveal that enhanced female bargaining power and cultural diffusion are two critical mechanisms. Our research fills an important gap in the literature by providing a perspective to the understanding of the alleviation of gender imbalance, and our findings have direct relevance for international trade governance and national population policies.
本文研究了贸易自由化对中国出生人口性别失衡的影响。本文结合人口普查数据、家庭和企业调查数据以及区域数据,采用线性概率差中差方法,证明自2002年中美建立永久正常贸易关系以来,贸易政策不确定性的下降在降低中国出生人口性别比方面发挥了关键作用。我们的研究结果表明,贸易政策不确定性每降低一个标准差,中国农村家庭头胎为女孩时的二胎性别比就会下降11.7%。这一下降约占这一时期(中国放宽独生子女政策之前)这一类型出生人口性别比总体下降的60%。更重要的是,进一步的分析表明,女性议价能力的增强和文化传播是两个关键机制。我们的研究填补了文献中的一个重要空白,为理解性别失衡的缓解提供了一个视角,我们的研究结果对国际贸易治理和国家人口政策具有直接的相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Open-source information and repression 开源信息和压制
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.006
Manuel Oechslin
With information-gathering devices like smartphones and drones proliferating, the likelihood that acts of government incompetence or wrongdoing leave relevant traces in the public domain steadily rises. The current paper proposes an applied game-theoretic model to explore how an incumbent politician with reelection concerns responds to this rise in open-source information. The analysis shows that an inherent aspect of the rise is a tendency towards heightened repression. In the model, if executive power is not sufficiently checked, the incumbent escalates hidden repression against free speech. Consequently, the electorate receives less, rather than more, information about the type of the incumbent – and the prospect of electoral defeat due to incompetence diminishes. The model’s predictions align with recent global trends in freedom of expression. The analysis stresses the rising importance of fortifying institutions that safeguard free speech and warns that international bodies like the European Union will be subject to growing centrifugal forces.
随着智能手机和无人机等信息收集设备的激增,政府无能或不法行为在公共领域留下相关痕迹的可能性稳步上升。本文提出了一个应用博弈论模型来探讨有连任问题的现任政治家如何应对开源信息的增加。分析表明,这种上升的一个内在方面是一种加强压制的趋势。在该模型中,如果行政权力没有得到充分的制约,现任者就会升级对言论自由的隐性压制。因此,选民获得的有关现任总统类型的信息更少,而不是更多——由于无能而导致选举失败的可能性也会降低。该模型的预测与最近全球言论自由的趋势一致。该分析强调了加强保护言论自由的机构的重要性,并警告说,像欧盟这样的国际机构将受到越来越大的离心力的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Transnational diffusion of identity politics 身份政治的跨国扩散
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.005
Soeren C. Schwuchow
We study a model of multidimensional politics in which voting decisions are shaped not only by voters’ preferences regarding redistribution but also by their identities. In our framework, which focus on nationalism, voters can trade material gains from redistribution for immaterial benefits from identity politics (i.e. more/less nationalism). Building on this widely accepted approach, we propose a novel channel for the transnational diffusion of identity politics. Specifically, we argue that changes in identity-related policies abroad can affect domestic voting behaviour through two mechanisms: First, by changing voters’ perceptions of the social acceptability of identities, and second, by changing the perceived relative benefits of adopting particular identities. Both mechanisms yield positive spillovers from foreign to domestic identity politics that originate from the domestic voters. Based on this approach, our model shows that temporary shocks (i.e. events that induce more/less domestic identity politics) can lead to permanent changes in the composition of the domestic society and thus in domestic identity politics. This result is driven by cultural rigidity when voters are able to intentionally adopt new identities. Such rigidity helps to stabilise the society by reducing extreme swings in societal identity composition, but also prevents voters from adopting individually optimal identities. Our model also highlights the influence of identity-based groups. Even without direct political influence, they can provide intrinsic benefits to members and consolidate group power, thereby becoming catalysts for future political influence. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings for policy making, highlighting the role of access to information and education.
我们研究了一个多维政治模型,在这个模型中,投票决定不仅受到选民对再分配的偏好的影响,还受到他们身份的影响。在我们关注民族主义的框架中,选民可以从再分配中获得物质利益,以换取身份政治(即更多/更少的民族主义)带来的非物质利益。在这种被广泛接受的方法的基础上,我们提出了一种身份政治跨国传播的新渠道。具体而言,我们认为国外身份相关政策的变化可以通过两种机制影响国内的投票行为:首先,通过改变选民对身份的社会可接受性的看法,其次,通过改变采用特定身份的感知相对利益。这两种机制都会产生积极的外溢效应,从国外到国内的身份政治都源于国内选民。基于这种方法,我们的模型表明,暂时的冲击(即引发或多或少国内认同政治的事件)可以导致国内社会构成的永久性变化,从而导致国内认同政治的永久性变化。当选民能够有意地接受新的身份时,这种结果是由文化僵化所驱动的。这种刚性通过减少社会身份构成的极端波动有助于稳定社会,但也阻止选民采用个人最优身份。我们的模型还强调了基于身份的群体的影响。即使没有直接的政治影响,它们也可以为成员提供内在利益,巩固集团权力,从而成为未来政治影响的催化剂。最后,我们讨论了我们的研究结果对政策制定的影响,强调了获取信息和教育的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Intellectual property rights protection and firm innovation: Evidence from half million firms in China 知识产权保护与企业创新:来自中国50万家企业的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.003
Bochuan Dai , George Chao Ma , Tao Shen
We examine the impact of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection on local private firm innovation. Using the implementation of local patent dispute jurisdiction in China as exogenous shocks, we show that private firm patenting activities in cities with jurisdiction are significantly higher than those in cities without local jurisdiction. Consistent with our hypotheses, the effect is more prominent for firms in cities that have different cultural disparity from their provincial capital cities and in cities with a better judicial environment. We provide additional evidence that access to capital, innovation efficiency, city development, and industry competition can influence the effect of local IPR protection in the expected way. Our paper highlights the importance of proximity and accessibility to local patent dispute jurisdiction for promoting private firm innovation in China.
我们研究了知识产权保护对本地私营企业创新的影响。以中国地方专利纠纷管辖权的实施为外生冲击,我们发现有地方管辖权的城市的私营企业专利活动显著高于无地方管辖权的城市。与我们的假设一致,在与省会城市文化差异较大的城市和司法环境较好的城市,这种效应更为突出。我们提供了更多的证据,证明资本获取、创新效率、城市发展和行业竞争能够以预期的方式影响当地知识产权保护的效果。本文强调了地方专利纠纷管辖权的接近性和可及性对于促进中国民营企业创新的重要性。
{"title":"Intellectual property rights protection and firm innovation: Evidence from half million firms in China","authors":"Bochuan Dai ,&nbsp;George Chao Ma ,&nbsp;Tao Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection on local private firm innovation. Using the implementation of local patent dispute jurisdiction in China as exogenous shocks, we show that private firm patenting activities in cities with jurisdiction are significantly higher than those in cities without local jurisdiction. Consistent with our hypotheses, the effect is more prominent for firms in cities that have different cultural disparity from their provincial capital cities and in cities with a better judicial environment. We provide additional evidence that access to capital, innovation efficiency, city development, and industry competition can influence the effect of local IPR protection in the expected way. Our paper highlights the importance of proximity and accessibility to local patent dispute jurisdiction for promoting private firm innovation in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48183,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Comparative Economics","volume":"53 4","pages":"Pages 977-1000"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145594633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global value chains: Do they impact the allocation of foreign aid? 全球价值链:它们会影响外援的分配吗?
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.007
Basak Bayramoglu , Jean-François Jacques , Julie Lochard
The rise of global value chains (GVCs) in recent decades has induced significant changes in the geography of world production, with consequences for bilateral relations. What are the consequences of GVC-related bilateral trade for the allocation of bilateral foreign aid? Using data on bilateral aid from 22 donors to 127 recipient countries over 2000-2018, our findings, robust to endogeneity, show that a larger participation of the recipient country in GVCs increases the amount of aid allocated to that country. To rationalize these findings, we develop a theoretical model that provides a simple explanation for the existence of transfers among countries: foreign aid allows a donor country producing a final good to buy less expensive intermediate inputs from an upstream country. Overall, this suggests that donors allocate aid strategically to import inputs at a lower cost.
近几十年来,全球价值链(GVCs)的兴起引起了世界生产地理的重大变化,并对双边关系产生了影响。与全球价值链相关的双边贸易对双边外援的分配有何影响?利用2000年至2018年间22个捐助国对127个受援国的双边援助数据,我们的研究结果表明,受援国在全球价值链中的参与度越高,分配给该国的援助金额就会增加。为了使这些发现合理化,我们开发了一个理论模型,为国家间转移的存在提供了一个简单的解释:外援允许生产最终产品的捐助国从上游国家购买更便宜的中间投入。总的来说,这表明捐助者战略性地将援助分配给以较低成本进口投入的国家。
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引用次数: 0
Higher education funding, welfare and inequality in equilibrium 高等教育经费、福利和不平等处于平衡状态
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.07.011
Gustavo Mellior
This paper analyses quantitatively the effect that higher education funding policies have on welfare and inequality. We evaluate five different higher education financing schemes with a heterogeneous agent model in continuous time. When educational costs are small, differences in outcomes across systems are negligible. As the cost of education and the share of debtors in society rises, it becomes preferable to fund education with subsidies, instead of student loans, as there is a pecuniary externality that arises with debt. Although subsidies can generate large steady state welfare gains, transition costs can be large enough to justify the status quo. The exception, full subsidy with graduate taxes, yields substantial welfare gains, even when taking into account transitional dynamics.
本文定量分析了高等教育经费政策对福利和不平等的影响。本文利用异构代理模型在连续时间下对五种不同的高等教育融资方案进行了评价。当教育成本很小时,不同系统之间的结果差异可以忽略不计。随着教育成本和债务人在社会中所占比例的上升,用补贴而不是学生贷款为教育提供资金变得更可取,因为债务会产生一种货币外部性。尽管补贴可以带来稳定的国家福利收益,但过渡成本可能大到足以证明维持现状是合理的。例外情况是,全额补贴加上毕业税,即使考虑到过渡动态,也能产生可观的福利收益。
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引用次数: 0
Exchanging money for love? A regional analysis of EU cohesion policy and Euroscepticism 用金钱换爱?欧盟凝聚力政策与欧洲怀疑主义的区域分析
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.10.003
Michael Bayerlein , Matthias Diermeier
In the past, the European Union was able to tame Euroscepticism through regional ‘convergence’ funding. Meanwhile, new member states became the largest recipients of EU funding, but shifted from being the most supportive of integration to showing the strongest opposition. Motivated by this puzzle, we revisit the relationship between ‘convergence’ funding and Euroscepticism. In contrast to utilitarian economic theory, our empirical analysis finds no general relationship between EU funding and support for the EU. Nevertheless, by accounting for successful post-funding convergence and awareness of EU funding, we identify under which conditions ‘convergence’ funding can tame Euroscepticism. Focusing on successfully converging regions after receiving EU funding, we uncover positive trends in EU unification preferences. Finally, we show that the EU is able to win support in Eastern Europe where people are more aware of EU investments. Rather than expanding its fiscal capacity, Brussels must focus on place-based ‘convergence’ funding that stimulates economic growth and is unambiguously associated with the EU.
在过去,欧盟能够通过地区“趋同”资金来驯服欧洲怀疑主义。与此同时,新成员国成为欧盟资金的最大接收国,但从最支持一体化转变为最强烈反对一体化。在这个困惑的驱使下,我们重新审视了“趋同”资助与欧洲怀疑主义之间的关系。与功利主义经济理论相反,我们的实证分析发现,欧盟资助与对欧盟的支持之间没有普遍的关系。然而,通过考虑成功的资助后趋同和对欧盟资助的认识,我们确定了在哪些条件下“趋同”资助可以驯服欧洲怀疑主义。我们着眼于在获得欧盟资助后成功实现地区融合,揭示了欧盟统一偏好的积极趋势。最后,我们表明欧盟能够在东欧赢得支持,那里的人们更了解欧盟的投资。布鲁塞尔必须专注于基于地方的“趋同”融资,而不是扩大其财政能力,以刺激经济增长,并明确与欧盟联系在一起。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Comparative Economics
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