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The making of the Greek fiscal state, 1833-1939 希腊财政国家的形成(1833-1939
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.01.001
Franciscos Koutentakis
The paper studies the historical process of fiscal state-building in 19th and early 20th century Greece. A new public finance dataset, compiled from primary sources, is combined with international databases in a graphical network analysis revealing dynamic interactions between economic (tax revenue, debt payments and GDP per capita) and institutional variables (army and representation). The emphasis is on two particular results closely related to the fiscal capacity literature: The first is that war preparation, captured by the size of the army, had a positive effect on tax revenue. The second is that representation, measured by legislative constraints to executive, was detrimental for tax revenue.
本文研究了19世纪和20世纪初希腊财政国家建设的历史进程。一个新的公共财政数据集,从主要来源汇编,与国际数据库结合在一个图形网络分析中,揭示了经济(税收收入、债务支付和人均GDP)和制度变量(军队和代表性)之间的动态相互作用。重点是与财政能力文献密切相关的两个特定结果:首先是军队规模捕获的战争准备对税收有积极影响。其次,以立法对行政的限制来衡量的代表权对税收不利。
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引用次数: 0
Economics of majoritarian identity politics 多数主义认同政治的经济学
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.01.004
Rohit Ticku , Raghul S. Venkatesh
Majoritarian identity politics has become salient in representative democracies. Why do parties engage in identity politics, and what are its consequences? We present a model of electoral competition in which parties capture voter groups based on their identity, and compete over an economic policy platform for the support of non-partisan voters. In addition, the party that caters to majoritarian interests makes a costly investment in polarizing identity. The investment provides subsequent payoffs to voters who have a preference for identity. When voter preferences over policy platforms are idiosyncratic in nature, greater investment in polarizing identity (i) increases both parties’ rents from office; and (ii) marginalizes minority voter interests. Further, the majoritarian party substitutes away from economic policy platforms. This enhances its overall payoffs in equilibrium and decreases that of the opposition party. We discuss the implications in the context of episodes of majoritarian identity politics in India, Turkey, Brazil, and the United States.
多数主义的身份政治在代议制民主中已经变得十分突出。政党为什么要参与身份政治,其后果是什么?我们提出了一个选举竞争模型,在这个模型中,政党根据他们的身份获得选民群体,并在一个经济政策平台上竞争,以获得无党派选民的支持。此外,迎合多数主义利益的政党在两极分化的身份上进行了昂贵的投资。这种投资为那些对身份有偏好的选民提供了后续回报。当选民对政策纲领的偏好在本质上是特殊的,对两极分化身份的更大投资(1)增加了两党从办公室的租金;(2)边缘化少数族裔选民的利益。此外,多数派政党在经济政策平台上进行了替代。这提高了它的总体均衡收益,减少了反对党的均衡收益。本文以印度、土耳其、巴西和美国的多数主义身份政治为背景,讨论其影响。
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引用次数: 0
Globalization of capital flows and the (in)disciplining of nations 资本流动的全球化和国家的纪律
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.005
Arthur Blouin , Sayantan Ghosal , Sharun W. Mukand
We analyze whether the threat of capital flight “disciplines” governments and improves governance. Our findings show that the globalization of capital flows influences governance through two competing channels. When a government effectively manages domestic governance, it seeks to minimize exposure to sudden capital flight driven by external factors. In contrast, when a government fails to manage domestic governance, the threat of capital flight can impose discipline, improving governance and welfare by placing the country in a “golden straitjacket”—the disciplining effect. However, capital flight may also negatively affect governance quality. As a result, this paper proposes a novel and qualified role for modest capital controls. Finally, we present evidence consistent with the predictions of our theoretical framework.
我们分析了资本外逃的威胁是否“约束”了政府并改善了治理。我们的研究结果表明,资本流动的全球化通过两个相互竞争的渠道影响治理。当一个政府有效地管理国内治理时,它会寻求将受外部因素驱动的突然资本外逃的风险降到最低。相反,当一个政府未能管理好国内治理时,资本外逃的威胁可以强制实行纪律,通过将国家置于“黄金紧身衣”——纪律效应——来改善治理和福利。然而,资本外逃也可能对治理质量产生负面影响。因此,本文提出了适度资本管制的一个新的、合格的角色。最后,我们提出了与我们的理论框架预测一致的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Liberalizing reforms do not cause suicide: Causal estimation using matching, 1980–2019 自由化改革不会导致自杀:使用匹配的因果估计,1980-2019
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.01.003
Tibor Rutar , Minea Rutar
The impact of market liberalization on the subjective well-being (SWB) of societies has been thoroughly investigated over the past two decades using indexes of economic freedom. However, one crucial related aspect of well-being at the societal level remains unexplored with aggregate measures of liberalization: rates of suicide. The critical literature on liberalization suggests market reforms are expected to boost suicide. To our knowledge, we are the first to explore the issue using the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) measure in a quasi-experimental framework. We do so by identifying 43 countries experiencing large, sustained jumps in economic freedom. We then use matching methods to obtain the average treatment effect in the 10 years following the jump. Our main finding, which is robust to a variety of alternative specifications, including a different estimator (synthetic difference-in-differences), is that we detect virtually no statistically significant positive effect of aggregate liberalization on suicide at the conventional level. Thus, we are unable to corroborate the critics’ prediction about reforms worsening this aspect of psychological well-being. We find evidence that individual reform packages, such as sound money, instead even work protectively.
在过去的二十年里,市场自由化对社会主观幸福感(SWB)的影响已经用经济自由指数进行了深入的研究。然而,在社会层面上,一个与幸福感相关的关键方面仍未被自由化的总体措施所探索:自杀率。批评自由化的文献表明,市场改革预计会增加自杀率。据我们所知,我们是第一个在准实验框架下使用世界经济自由(EFW)指标来探索这个问题的人。为此,我们列出了43个经济自由度持续大幅提升的国家。然后,我们使用匹配方法获得跳跃后10年的平均治疗效果。我们的主要发现是,我们发现在常规水平上,总体自由化对自杀几乎没有统计上显著的积极影响,这对各种替代规范(包括不同的估计器(综合差异中的差异))都是稳健的。因此,我们无法证实批评家关于改革恶化这方面心理健康的预测。我们发现有证据表明,个别改革方案,例如健全货币,甚至起到了保护作用。
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引用次数: 0
The cultural origins of family firms 家族企业的文化起源
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.003
Jian Xie , Song Yuan
What determines the prevalence of family firms? In this project, we investigate the role of historical family culture in the spatial distribution of family firms. Using detailed firm-level data from China, we find that there is a larger share of family firms in regions with a stronger historical family culture, as measured by genealogy density. The results are further confirmed by an instrumental variables approach and a matching approach. Examining mechanisms, we find that entrepreneurs in regions with a stronger historical family culture: (i) tend to have family members engage more in firms; (ii) are more likely to raise initial capital from family members; (iii) are more willing to pass on the firms to their children. Historical family culture predicts better firm performance partly due to a lower leverage ratio.
是什么决定了家族企业的盛行?在这个项目中,我们研究了历史家族文化在家族企业空间分布中的作用。利用来自中国的详细企业层面数据,我们发现,在家族史文化较强的地区,家族企业的比例更大。通过工具变量法和匹配法进一步证实了结果。通过对机制的考察,我们发现家族文化历史较强地区的企业家:(1)家族成员参与企业活动的程度较高;(ii)更有可能从家庭成员那里筹集初始资金;(iii)更愿意将公司传给子女。历史上的家族文化预示着更好的公司业绩,部分原因是杠杆率较低。
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引用次数: 0
Economic effects of (non-)compliance with constitutions (不)遵守宪法的经济影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.006
Anna Lewczuk, Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska
Constitutional non-compliance, understood as non-congruence between provisions written in countries’ constitutions and the behavior of their governments, has recently become the focus of economic analysis. While other studies concentrate on the reasons behind this phenomenon, we are interested in its economic effects. We argue that non-compliance with constitutions is associated with lower GDP per capita and test our hypothesis empirically for more than 150 countries in the period 1960–2019 using the new Comparative Constitutional Compliance Database and a dynamic panel strategy. Our study confirms adverse economic effects of constitutional violations and this, in particular, in the area of property rights protection and the rule of law. In addition, we indicate groups of countries, where (non-)compliance with constitutions is of particular relevance, as well as identify the mechanisms behind these effects. Our findings contribute to several strands of literature at the nexus of constitutional political economy and development economics.
宪法不遵守,被理解为国家宪法规定与政府行为之间的不一致,最近成为经济分析的焦点。当其他研究集中在这一现象背后的原因时,我们感兴趣的是它的经济影响。我们认为不遵守宪法与较低的人均GDP有关,并使用新的比较宪法遵守数据库和动态面板策略对1960-2019年150多个国家的假设进行了实证检验。我们的研究证实了违反宪法的不利经济影响,特别是在财产权保护和法治方面。此外,我们指出了(不)遵守宪法特别相关的国家集团,并确定了这些影响背后的机制。我们的发现有助于在宪法政治经济学和发展经济学的关系的几个方面的文献。
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引用次数: 0
Tit-for-tat in antidumping: How did China fight its antidumping wars with its trading partners? 在反倾销问题上针锋相对:中国是如何与贸易伙伴打反倾销战的?
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.002
Wonkyung Lee , Hong Ma , Yuan Xu
Existing studies have examined the determinants of antidumping measures in different countries. Much less attention has been paid to the role of high-frequency bilateral relations in imposing temporary trade barriers. Using quarterly data on antidumping cases from 1997Q1 to 2020Q4, this paper examines the bilateral relationship between China and its major trading partners in imposing antidumping. A bivariate vector autoregressive methodology is employed and Granger causality tests are carried out. We find that antidumping investigations against China by the US significantly lead to and predict the investigations against the US by China, suggesting that the US is the first mover and China is the follower that retaliates. In contrast, in bilateral relations between China and the European Union, Korea, or Japan, there is no evidence of significant causality in either direction. Furthermore, we find that China retaliates against the US both within and across industries. While China’s retaliatory measures have shown some effectiveness in terminating outstanding US investigations, this is not always the case. However, this tit-for-tat behavior does effectively deter future investigations by the US.
现有的研究考察了不同国家反倾销措施的决定因素。频繁的双边关系在设置临时贸易壁垒方面的作用受到的关注要少得多。本文利用1997年第一季度至2020年第四季度的反倾销案件季度数据,考察了中国与其主要贸易伙伴在实施反倾销方面的双边关系。采用二元向量自回归方法,并进行格兰杰因果检验。我们发现,美国对中国的反倾销调查对中国对美国的调查具有显著的引领和预测作用,这表明美国是先发者,中国是报复的跟随者。相比之下,在中国与欧盟、韩国或日本的双边关系中,没有证据表明两者之间存在显著的因果关系。此外,我们发现中国在行业内和跨行业对美国进行报复。尽管中国的报复性措施在终止美国未决调查方面显示出一定效果,但情况并非总是如此。然而,这种以牙还牙的行为确实有效地阻止了美国未来的调查。
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引用次数: 0
The aggregate and distributional effects of immigration restrictions: The 1920s Quota Acts and the Great Black Migration 移民限制的总量和分配效应:20世纪20年代的配额法案和大黑人移民
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.004
Bin Xie
Using county-level data and linked individual samples, this study explores the labor market impact of the immigration shock triggered by the US immigration quota system and its causal effect on the Great Black Migration. County-level analysis indicates that immigration restrictions did not affect average manufacturing wages and lowered the average occupational standings of US-born whites and immigrants. Analysis of linked individual samples reveals substantial internal migration and distributional effect caused by the immigration shock: migrants moving to counties more impacted by the shock experienced greater economic gains, while non-movers suffered greater losses. Notably, the negative immigration shock led to a marked increase in the migration of Black southerners to northern counties. Black migrants moving to more affected areas achieved higher occupational standings, increased literacy rates, and greater employment in urban manufacturing jobs.
本研究利用县级数据和关联的个体样本,探讨了美国移民配额制度引发的移民冲击对劳动力市场的影响及其对黑人大迁徙的因果效应。县级分析表明,移民限制并未影响制造业的平均工资,并降低了美国出生的白人和移民的平均职业排名。对相关个体样本的分析显示,移民冲击造成了实质性的内部迁移和分配效应:向受冲击影响更大的县迁移的移民获得了更大的经济收益,而非迁入县的移民遭受了更大的损失。值得注意的是,负面的移民冲击导致南方黑人移民到北方县的人数显著增加。迁移到受影响更严重地区的黑人移民获得了更高的职业地位,提高了识字率,并在城市制造业中获得了更多的就业机会。
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引用次数: 0
Organizing regulatory structure and local air quality: Evidence from the environmental vertical management reform in China 组织监管结构与地方空气质量:来自中国环境垂直管理改革的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.12.001
Pei Li , Kaihao Liu , Yi Lu , Lu Peng
The effectiveness of environmental policies is often compromised by weak enforcement due to conflicts between local and national interests. We examine a novel institutional reform in China that centralizes the management authority of grassroots environmental bureaus to address the issue of local capture. By analyzing the staggered roll-out of this reform, we find that the Air Quality Index significantly decreased by 25.1%. We attribute this improvement to a reduction in the capture of front-line environmental regulators by local interest groups, alignment of interests between local regulators and their upper-level administrators, and increased efforts for environmental protection by local governments in a more independent and impartial regulatory environment. These results highlight the effectiveness of distributing management authority to different administrative levels, as it reshapes the incentives for local environmental regulators, strengthens enforcement efficiency, and facilitates the achievement of policy objectives.
由于地方利益与国家利益之间的冲突,环境政策的有效性往往受到执法不力的影响。我们研究了中国一项新的制度改革,即将管理权力集中到基层环境部门,以解决地方捕获问题。通过分析这一改革的交错推出,我们发现空气质量指数显著下降了25.1%。我们将这一改善归因于地方利益集团对一线环境监管机构的控制减少,地方监管机构与其上级管理者之间的利益一致,以及地方政府在更加独立和公正的监管环境中加大了环境保护力度。这些结果突出了将管理权力分配给不同行政级别的有效性,因为它重塑了对地方环境监管机构的激励,加强了执法效率,并促进了政策目标的实现。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign-assisted infrastructure and local employment: Evidence from China's aid to Africa 外国援助的基础设施与当地就业:来自中国对非洲援助的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2024.11.003
Jiafu An , Shiqi Guo , Haicheng Jiang
This study examines the impact of Chinese infrastructure aid on local employment across ten African countries, surveying over 500,000 individuals from 2000 to 2014. Utilizing variations in proximity to aid projects and the timing of project construction relative to local surveys reveals that Chinese aid increases local employment by two percentage points in areas near project sites compared to those awaiting project commencement, contrasting with regions without such aid. Employment rises with the onset of construction, primarily benefiting individuals with lower educational attainment, and persists post-completion, sustained by the migration and employment of skilled workers. Various infrastructure projects temporarily boost local employment, with long-term benefits particularly pronounced for projects in education, healthcare, and water and power utilities. Cross-sectoral and spatial spillover effects are also identified, with results remaining robust after accounting for additional local development factors.
本研究考察了中国基础设施援助对10个非洲国家当地就业的影响,从2000年到2014年调查了50多万人。利用与援助项目的距离和项目建设时间相对于当地调查的变化,中国的援助使项目所在地附近地区的当地就业比等待项目开工的地区增加了两个百分点,与没有这种援助的地区相比。就业随着建设的开始而增加,主要使受教育程度较低的个人受益,并在完成后继续存在,由熟练工人的移民和就业维持。各种基础设施项目暂时促进了当地就业,教育、医疗、水电等项目的长期效益尤为显著。还确定了跨部门和空间溢出效应,在考虑了其他地方发展因素后,结果仍然强劲。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Comparative Economics
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