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Can past informality impede registered firms’ access to credit? 过去的非正式会阻碍注册公司获得信贷吗?
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.002
Dorgyles C.M. Kouakou
Using a large firm-level dataset from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, which covers 134 countries and includes over 134,000 observations, we examine whether past informality affects the credit constraints of registered firms. Estimations, based on the entropy balancing method, indicate that registered firms that began operations informally are more likely to be credit-constrained than those that started in the formal sector. This finding is extremely robust to a variety of robustness tests, including instrumental variable, propensity score matching, alternative balancing methods that combine weighting and regression, potential omitted variables, restricted samples, alternative measures of credit constraints, different specifications such as Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit models, and clustering standard errors at the country level. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the detrimental impact of past informality lessens with firm size, firm age, and better structural factors like regulatory quality, trade openness, entrepreneurial dynamism, and public spending. Productivity, competition from the informal sector, and the quality of financial statements are key channels through which past informality increases credit constraints for registered firms.
利用世界银行企业调查的大型企业层面数据集(涵盖134个国家,包括134,000多个观察结果),我们研究了过去的非正式性是否会影响注册公司的信贷约束。基于熵平衡法的估计表明,以非正式方式开始运营的注册公司比那些在正式部门开始运营的注册公司更有可能受到信贷限制。这一发现对各种稳健性检验都具有很强的稳健性,包括工具变量、倾向得分匹配、结合加权和回归的替代平衡方法、潜在的遗漏变量、受限样本、信贷约束的替代度量、不同的规范(如线性概率、Logit和Probit模型)以及国家一级的聚类标准误差。异质性分析表明,过去非正式性的有害影响随着企业规模、企业年龄以及监管质量、贸易开放程度、企业活力和公共支出等更好的结构性因素而减弱。生产力、来自非正式部门的竞争和财务报表的质量是过去非正式性增加注册公司信贷限制的关键渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Gender minority: A non-pecuniary approach to political capital 性别少数:政治资本的非金钱途径
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.007
Qingfeng Cai , Dongxu Li , Hao Liu
Social minority benefits from in-group favoritism, and companies may leverage it as a non-pecuniary strategy to access political capital. We examine gendered implications of corporate responses to city-level political turnovers, specifically when the leadership shifts from male to female politician. We show that the politician turnover induces firms headquartered in that city to increase the presence of women on the board of directors, particularly in the chairman or CEO position. This result is unlikely driven by gender equality concerns or other firm characteristics. Firms selecting a female director witness significantly increased financial support from the government. This paper suggests that gender minority can be a subtle way accessing political capital, and boosting female representation can help curb the in-group favoritism.
社会少数群体受益于群体内偏袒,公司可能会利用它作为一种非金钱策略来获取政治资本。我们研究了企业对城市级政治更替的反应的性别含义,特别是当领导从男性转变为女性政治家时。我们表明,政治家的更替促使总部设在该城市的公司增加董事会中女性的存在,特别是在董事长或首席执行官职位上。这一结果不太可能是由性别平等问题或其他公司特征驱动的。选择女性董事的企业得到的政府支援大幅增加。本文认为,性别少数可能是获得政治资本的一种微妙方式,提高女性代表性有助于遏制群体内偏袒。
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引用次数: 0
International bridges and informal employment 国际桥梁和非正式就业
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.006
Kazunobu Hayakawa , Souknilanh Keola , Sasatra Sudsawasd , Kenta Yamanouchi
This study empirically investigates the effects on the formal–informal wage gap of the opening of an international bridge, specifically the second Thai–Lao Friendship Bridge, between Thailand and Laos in December 2006. We examine the wage gap between formal and informal workers in the border regions of Thailand using individual-level data from the Informal Employment Surveys for 2006 and 2011. We address endogeneity issues by using the instrumental variable method and introducing time-variant province fixed effects. As an instrument, we use the existence of formal workers in each family. Our findings can be summarized as follows. We find that the opening of the second bridge increased wages to a greater extent for formal workers than for informal workers; that is, it expanded the formal–informal wage gap. Such an effect is localized and can be observed up to 100 km from the bridge.
本研究实证调查了2006年12月泰国和老挝之间开通一座国际桥梁对正式和非正式工资差距的影响,特别是第二座泰老友谊桥。我们使用2006年和2011年非正式就业调查的个人层面数据,研究了泰国边境地区正式工人和非正式工人之间的工资差距。我们采用工具变量法和引入时变省份固定效应来解决内生性问题。作为一种工具,我们利用每个家庭中存在的正式工人。我们的研究结果可以总结如下。我们发现,第二座桥的开通对正式工人的工资增长幅度大于非正式工人;也就是说,它扩大了正式和非正式的工资差距。这种效应是局部的,可以在距离大桥100公里的地方观察到。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of birthplace diversity on prosociality: Ingroups versus outgroups 出生地多样性对亲社会性的影响:内群体与外群体
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.005
Zhijian Zhang , Yuli Ding , Shu Wu
How does immigration shape prosociality? This study investigates the impact of birthplace diversity on households’ private provision of financial support to different social groups in China. Linking nationally representative surveys with prefectural socio-economic data and census information, we employ a shift-share instrumental variable approach alongside fixed effects to explore this relationship. Exposure to increased birthplace diversity leads to more households providing financial assistance to friends and strangers, but not to relatives. The favorable impacts stem primarily from within-group diversity and fractionalization, rather than from between-group diversity and polarization. Economic interdependence and broader inclusiveness, as opposed to social trust or outgroup threat, likely drive these effects. The observed effect is more pronounced among households with higher educational attainment, superior economic status, and in cities receiving fewer distant immigrants. Distinguishing dimensions of diversity and their contexts is crucial for understanding immigration’s social implications.
移民是如何塑造亲社会的?本研究探讨了出生地多样性对中国家庭向不同社会群体提供经济支持的影响。将具有全国代表性的调查与地方社会经济数据和人口普查信息联系起来,我们采用偏移份额工具变量方法以及固定效应来探索这种关系。出生地多样性的增加导致更多的家庭向朋友和陌生人提供经济援助,而不是向亲戚提供经济援助。有利的影响主要来自群体内的多样性和分化,而不是群体间的多样性和极化。经济上的相互依赖和更广泛的包容性,而不是社会信任或外部群体威胁,可能会推动这些影响。在受教育程度较高、经济地位优越以及外来移民较少的城市中,这种效应更为明显。区分多样性的维度及其背景对于理解移民的社会影响至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Periods of uncertainty are linked to greater acceptance of minorities 不确定时期与更大程度上接受少数族裔有关
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.001
Niclas Berggren , Andreas Bergh , Therese Nilsson
Uncertainty affects people in various ways. It is frequently found to hinder investment and production in the economic sphere. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between uncertainty and tolerance toward Muslims and Jews. Does uncertainty make people more or less tolerant? This question is particularly relevant given the prevalence of pandemics, wars, and financial crises. We investigate this relationship using the World Uncertainty Index, which measures the frequency of the word “uncertain” (and its variants) in The Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. By analyzing quarterly data from up to 56 countries between 1990 and 2020, we link country-level uncertainty to approximately 227,000 individual responses from the World Values Survey/European Values Study regarding whether respondents would like to have Jews or Muslims as neighbors. Leveraging the precise timing of survey interviews, we relate individual attitudes to prevailing uncertainty levels. Our results indicate a positive relationship between uncertainty and both tolerance indicators. Thus, for those concerned with attitudes toward minorities often subjected to prejudice, calm periods may pose greater risks to tolerance than volatile periods.
不确定性以各种方式影响人们。它经常阻碍经济领域的投资和生产。在本研究中,我们考察了不确定性与对穆斯林和犹太人的宽容之间的实证关系。不确定性会让人们变得更宽容还是更不宽容?鉴于流行病、战争和金融危机的普遍存在,这个问题尤为重要。我们使用世界不确定性指数来调查这种关系,该指数衡量经济学人智库国家报告中“不确定”一词(及其变体)的频率。通过分析1990年至2020年间多达56个国家的季度数据,我们将国家层面的不确定性与来自世界价值观调查/欧洲价值观研究的大约227,000个个人回复联系起来,这些回复涉及受访者是愿意与犹太人还是穆斯林做邻居。利用调查访谈的精确时间,我们将个人态度与普遍的不确定性水平联系起来。我们的结果表明,不确定性和两个容忍度指标之间呈正相关关系。因此,对于那些关心对经常受到偏见的少数民族的态度的人来说,平静时期可能比动荡时期对容忍构成更大的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Professional motivation and the quantity–quality trade-off 职业动机与数量-质量权衡
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.007
J. Michelle Brock
How can professionals be motivated to do better quality work? This paper examines this question through a unique lab-in-the-field experiment on more than 100 judges in a lower middle income country, Tajikistan. I test how judges respond both to monetary bonuses and to anonymous monitoring by peers of the quality of their work. I find that the provision of bonuses leads to much lower quality than in a control group where bonuses are not given. However, offering a bonus while also making work visible to peers motivates the judges to increase both quantity and quality. Random peer monitoring of work is likely triggering concerns about self-image which mitigate the negative effect of bonuses on quality. The results have important implications in labor market settings where strict monitoring of quality is not possible.
如何激励专业人员更好地完成高质量的工作?本文通过对中低收入国家塔吉克斯坦的100多名法官进行独特的现场实验室实验来研究这个问题。我测试了法官对奖金和同行对其工作质量的匿名监督的反应。我发现,与不提供奖金的对照组相比,提供奖金导致的质量要低得多。然而,在提供奖金的同时,让同行看到自己的作品,会激励评委提高作品的数量和质量。随机的同事监督工作可能会引发对自我形象的担忧,从而减轻奖金对工作质量的负面影响。研究结果对无法严格监控质量的劳动力市场环境具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Green retirement: The impact of retirement on carbon emissions through consumption and income dynamics 绿色退休:通过消费和收入动态分析退休对碳排放的影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.002
Wei Huang, Xiaoyan Lei, Chunfeng Zhang
This paper investigates the impact of retirement on carbon emissions, using China's compulsory retirement age policy as an exogenous source of variation. By applying a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to individual-level data, we identify a "green retirement" effect, where retirees reduce their carbon emissions due to income declines and changes in consumption behavior. For men, this reduction primarily stems from a decrease in consumption quantity, while for women, both a reduction in quantity and a shift toward more environmentally friendly consumption play a role. The effect is more pronounced among individuals with higher educational attainment, indicating that socioeconomic factors influence the environmental impact of retirement. These results suggest that demographic shifts could support sustainability efforts by aligning retirement policies with environmental goals.
本文以中国强制退休年龄政策为外源变量,研究退休对碳排放的影响。通过将回归不连续设计(RDD)应用于个人层面的数据,我们确定了“绿色退休”效应,即退休人员由于收入下降和消费行为的变化而减少了碳排放。对男子来说,这种减少主要是由于消费数量的减少,而对妇女来说,数量的减少和转向更环保的消费都起了作用。这一效应在受教育程度较高的个体中更为明显,表明社会经济因素影响退休对环境的影响。这些结果表明,人口结构的变化可以通过调整退休政策与环境目标来支持可持续发展的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Is an ounce of prevention worth a pound of cure? Evidence from a large-scale vaccination experiment in China 一盎司的预防抵得上十分的治疗吗?来自中国大规模疫苗接种实验的证据
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.006
Yuyu Chen , Eik Leong Swee , Hui Wang , Qingqing Zong
Can publicly-funded immunization programs in developing countries be cost-effective? To answer this, we run a large-scale experiment in China to estimate the cost-effectiveness of influenza and pneumococcal vaccines on elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Vaccinated patients – relative to the control group – experienced improvements in their COPD condition, which led to a substantial decrease in their medical expenditure (public medical insurance reimbursements and out-of-pocket expenses). Our conservative difference-in-differences estimates imply that every dollar spent making vaccination freely available reduced public medical insurance reimbursements by at least 10 to 33 dollars, and reduced total medical expenditure by 15 to 46 dollars. Comparing across beneficiaries, we find that patients aged 70 and above, those with more severe COPD symptoms, and those residing in rural areas, benefitted the most from immunization. Our results shed light on the long-run viability of public immunization programs, and for whom should immunization be prioritized.
发展中国家公共资助的免疫规划是否具有成本效益?为了回答这个问题,我们在中国进行了一项大规模实验,以评估流感和肺炎球菌疫苗对老年慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)患者的成本效益。与对照组相比,接种疫苗的患者的慢性阻塞性肺病病情有所改善,这导致他们的医疗支出(公共医疗保险报销和自付费用)大幅减少。我们保守的差异中差异估计表明,用于免费接种疫苗的每一美元至少减少了10至33美元的公共医疗保险报销,并减少了15至46美元的总医疗支出。通过比较受益人,我们发现70岁及以上的患者、COPD症状更严重的患者以及居住在农村地区的患者从免疫接种中受益最大。我们的研究结果揭示了公共免疫规划的长期可行性,以及哪些人应该优先接种疫苗。
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引用次数: 0
Diplomatic relations and agricultural trade 外交关系和农业贸易
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.02.001
Zhongda Li , Lu Liu
Political conflicts often cause disruptions in agricultural trade, yet previous studies have not paid much attention to the food market. Focusing on China, this paper examines the impact of diplomatic relations on agricultural trade. We match a panel dataset on agricultural exports to China from 168 trading partners with our constructed ranking index of diplomatic relations. Using different strategies to address the endogeneity issue, our analysis finds robust evidence for a strong and positive effect of diplomatic affinity on bilateral agricultural export flows. Exploring the potential mechanisms, we uncover that the increased agricultural exports work primarily through enhancing bilateral communication. Based on a quantitative trade model with Stone-Geary preferences, we then quantify the welfare effects from changes in diplomatic relations. We show that an increase in the ranking of diplomatic relations with trading partners leads to welfare gains of 0.5-1.8% through agricultural trade.
政治冲突往往会导致农业贸易中断,但以往的研究并未对粮食市场给予太多关注。本文以中国为研究对象,考察外交关系对农业贸易的影响。我们将168个贸易伙伴对中国农产品出口的面板数据集与我们构建的外交关系排名指数相匹配。通过使用不同的策略来解决内生性问题,我们的分析发现了强有力的证据,表明外交亲和对双边农业出口流动具有强大而积极的影响。通过对潜在机制的探讨,我们发现农业出口的增加主要是通过加强双边沟通来实现的。基于Stone-Geary偏好的定量贸易模型,我们量化了外交关系变化带来的福利效应。我们表明,通过农业贸易,与贸易伙伴的外交关系排名的提高会带来0.5-1.8%的福利收益。
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引用次数: 0
Intergenerational effects of parental human capital on children: Evidence from Malawi 父母人力资本对儿童的代际影响:来自马拉维的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.03.001
Youjin Hahn , Minji Kwak , Hyelim Son
We investigate the intergenerational transmission of parental education on children’s outcomes in Malawi. Using the variations induced by the Free Primary Education reform implemented in 1994, we find that an extra year of mothers’ and fathers’ schooling increases children’s schooling years by 0.19 and 0.16 years, respectively. Children with more educated mothers are less likely to work, while no such evidence is found for children with more educated fathers. We examine an array of potential mechanisms, including assortative mating, reduced fertility, and improvements in family resources. We find that spousal quality, fertility response, and a narrower age gap between spouses may be the underlying channels for the intergenerational transmission of education.
我们调查了马拉维父母教育对儿童结果的代际传递。利用1994年实施的免费小学教育改革引起的变化,我们发现母亲和父亲每多受一年教育,儿童的受教育年限分别增加0.19年和0.16年。母亲受教育程度高的孩子不太可能工作,而父亲受教育程度高的孩子则没有这样的证据。我们研究了一系列潜在的机制,包括选择性交配、生育率降低和家庭资源的改善。我们发现配偶质量、生育反应和配偶之间年龄差距的缩小可能是教育代际传递的潜在渠道。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Comparative Economics
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