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The journey to formality: How credit market access shapes informal workers' choices 正式之旅:信贷市场准入如何影响非正式工人的选择
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.003
Alina Malkova , Klara Peter
We analyze how credit market accessibility affects the transition of informal workers to the formal sector in Russia. Formal lenders determine credit limits based on verified income and incentivize informal workers to formalize their income in order to qualify for a loan. Better credit accessibility increases the likelihood of transitioning from informal to formal work. It also decreases tax evasion and raises the share of income being declared for tax purposes. Findings are robust across different model specifications, including dynamic multinomial logit model and event study approach. Simulated interventions suggest that more bank competition and a shorter distance to banks reduce the size of the informal sector and increase the tax-declared share of income.
我们分析了信贷市场的可及性如何影响俄罗斯非正规工人向正规部门的过渡。正规贷款人根据核实的收入确定信贷限额,并鼓励非正规工人将其收入正式化,以便有资格获得贷款。更容易获得信贷增加了从非正式工作过渡到正式工作的可能性。它还减少了偷税漏税,并提高了申报用于税收目的的收入份额。研究结果对不同的模型规范具有鲁棒性,包括动态多项逻辑模型和事件研究方法。模拟干预表明,更多的银行竞争和更短的银行距离减少了非正规部门的规模,增加了收入中税收申报的份额。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of birthplace diversity on prosociality: Ingroups versus outgroups 出生地多样性对亲社会性的影响:内群体与外群体
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.005
Zhijian Zhang , Yuli Ding , Shu Wu
How does immigration shape prosociality? This study investigates the impact of birthplace diversity on households’ private provision of financial support to different social groups in China. Linking nationally representative surveys with prefectural socio-economic data and census information, we employ a shift-share instrumental variable approach alongside fixed effects to explore this relationship. Exposure to increased birthplace diversity leads to more households providing financial assistance to friends and strangers, but not to relatives. The favorable impacts stem primarily from within-group diversity and fractionalization, rather than from between-group diversity and polarization. Economic interdependence and broader inclusiveness, as opposed to social trust or outgroup threat, likely drive these effects. The observed effect is more pronounced among households with higher educational attainment, superior economic status, and in cities receiving fewer distant immigrants. Distinguishing dimensions of diversity and their contexts is crucial for understanding immigration’s social implications.
移民是如何塑造亲社会的?本研究探讨了出生地多样性对中国家庭向不同社会群体提供经济支持的影响。将具有全国代表性的调查与地方社会经济数据和人口普查信息联系起来,我们采用偏移份额工具变量方法以及固定效应来探索这种关系。出生地多样性的增加导致更多的家庭向朋友和陌生人提供经济援助,而不是向亲戚提供经济援助。有利的影响主要来自群体内的多样性和分化,而不是群体间的多样性和极化。经济上的相互依赖和更广泛的包容性,而不是社会信任或外部群体威胁,可能会推动这些影响。在受教育程度较高、经济地位优越以及外来移民较少的城市中,这种效应更为明显。区分多样性的维度及其背景对于理解移民的社会影响至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Periods of uncertainty are linked to greater acceptance of minorities 不确定时期与更大程度上接受少数族裔有关
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.05.001
Niclas Berggren , Andreas Bergh , Therese Nilsson
Uncertainty affects people in various ways. It is frequently found to hinder investment and production in the economic sphere. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between uncertainty and tolerance toward Muslims and Jews. Does uncertainty make people more or less tolerant? This question is particularly relevant given the prevalence of pandemics, wars, and financial crises. We investigate this relationship using the World Uncertainty Index, which measures the frequency of the word “uncertain” (and its variants) in The Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. By analyzing quarterly data from up to 56 countries between 1990 and 2020, we link country-level uncertainty to approximately 227,000 individual responses from the World Values Survey/European Values Study regarding whether respondents would like to have Jews or Muslims as neighbors. Leveraging the precise timing of survey interviews, we relate individual attitudes to prevailing uncertainty levels. Our results indicate a positive relationship between uncertainty and both tolerance indicators. Thus, for those concerned with attitudes toward minorities often subjected to prejudice, calm periods may pose greater risks to tolerance than volatile periods.
不确定性以各种方式影响人们。它经常阻碍经济领域的投资和生产。在本研究中,我们考察了不确定性与对穆斯林和犹太人的宽容之间的实证关系。不确定性会让人们变得更宽容还是更不宽容?鉴于流行病、战争和金融危机的普遍存在,这个问题尤为重要。我们使用世界不确定性指数来调查这种关系,该指数衡量经济学人智库国家报告中“不确定”一词(及其变体)的频率。通过分析1990年至2020年间多达56个国家的季度数据,我们将国家层面的不确定性与来自世界价值观调查/欧洲价值观研究的大约227,000个个人回复联系起来,这些回复涉及受访者是愿意与犹太人还是穆斯林做邻居。利用调查访谈的精确时间,我们将个人态度与普遍的不确定性水平联系起来。我们的结果表明,不确定性和两个容忍度指标之间呈正相关关系。因此,对于那些关心对经常受到偏见的少数民族的态度的人来说,平静时期可能比动荡时期对容忍构成更大的风险。
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引用次数: 0
International bridges and informal employment 国际桥梁和非正式就业
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.006
Kazunobu Hayakawa , Souknilanh Keola , Sasatra Sudsawasd , Kenta Yamanouchi
This study empirically investigates the effects on the formal–informal wage gap of the opening of an international bridge, specifically the second Thai–Lao Friendship Bridge, between Thailand and Laos in December 2006. We examine the wage gap between formal and informal workers in the border regions of Thailand using individual-level data from the Informal Employment Surveys for 2006 and 2011. We address endogeneity issues by using the instrumental variable method and introducing time-variant province fixed effects. As an instrument, we use the existence of formal workers in each family. Our findings can be summarized as follows. We find that the opening of the second bridge increased wages to a greater extent for formal workers than for informal workers; that is, it expanded the formal–informal wage gap. Such an effect is localized and can be observed up to 100 km from the bridge.
本研究实证调查了2006年12月泰国和老挝之间开通一座国际桥梁对正式和非正式工资差距的影响,特别是第二座泰老友谊桥。我们使用2006年和2011年非正式就业调查的个人层面数据,研究了泰国边境地区正式工人和非正式工人之间的工资差距。我们采用工具变量法和引入时变省份固定效应来解决内生性问题。作为一种工具,我们利用每个家庭中存在的正式工人。我们的研究结果可以总结如下。我们发现,第二座桥的开通对正式工人的工资增长幅度大于非正式工人;也就是说,它扩大了正式和非正式的工资差距。这种效应是局部的,可以在距离大桥100公里的地方观察到。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of black economic empowerment on the performance of listed firms in South Africa 黑人经济赋权对南非上市公司绩效的影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.004
Matthias Busse , Nina Kupzig , Tim Vogel
Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) is a policy that aims to empower previously disadvantaged individuals and decrease racial economic inequality in South Africa. As the program puts reformation pressure on firms, it might strongly influence firm performance. This article examines how BEE affects turnover, profits, and labour productivity of firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We use an extensive dataset covering a major share of listed firms between 2004 and 2019. The analysis employs fixed-effects regressions and the system GMM approach to account for endogeneity. Subsample analyses are used to account for heterogeneity in BEE scores. Overall, we find that BEE tends to have a small positive impact on firms’ turnover, a positive but not robust impact on labour productivity, and no impact on profits. Larger JSE-listed firms drive the positive effect on turnover. We conclude that BEE had a slightly positive effect on large JSE firms in the best case but also did not harm JSE firms in the worst case. To increase the benefits of BEE, we propose that the policy should be further adapted to reduce the cost of compliance and focus on areas that enhance structural change in South African companies, like skills development.
黑人经济赋权(BEE)是一项旨在赋予南非以前处于不利地位的个人权力并减少种族经济不平等的政策。由于该计划给企业带来了改革压力,因此有可能对企业业绩产生很大影响。本文考察了BEE如何影响在约翰内斯堡证券交易所(JSE)上市的公司的营业额、利润和劳动生产率。我们使用了一个广泛的数据集,涵盖了2004年至2019年期间上市公司的主要份额。分析采用固定效应回归和系统GMM方法来解释内生性。子样本分析用于解释BEE分数的异质性。总体而言,我们发现BEE倾向于对企业营业额有小的正向影响,对劳动生产率有积极但不强烈的影响,对利润没有影响。较大的日本证券交易所上市公司对营业额产生积极影响。我们得出结论,在最好的情况下,BEE对大型JSE公司有轻微的积极影响,但在最坏的情况下,也没有伤害JSE公司。为了提高BEE的效益,我们建议进一步调整政策,以降低合规成本,并将重点放在促进南非公司结构变革的领域,如技能发展。
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引用次数: 0
The growth consequences of socialism 社会主义发展的结果
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.003
Andreas Bergh , Christian Bjørnskov , Luděk Kouba
The discussion of the growth consequences of socialism has fulminated for a century, sparked off by the Calculation Debate in the 1920s and 30s, and has concerned the performance of the Soviet Union in the 1950s and the mixed development in the 1990s after communism collapsed in Central and Eastern Europe. We aim to inform these debates by providing an empirical assessment of how socialist economies performed across the second half of the 20th century. Using both neighbour comparisons as well as more formal empirical analysis of developing countries that turned socialist after independence, we derive a set of estimates of the degree to which the introduction of a planned socialist economy affects long-run growth and development. Our results robustly point towards a decrease in annual growth rates of approximately two percentage points during the first decade after implementing socialism.
关于社会主义增长后果的讨论已经持续了一个世纪,由20世纪20年代和30年代的“计算之争”引发,并涉及到20世纪50年代苏联的表现,以及20世纪90年代共产主义在中欧和东欧垮台后的混合发展。我们的目标是通过对社会主义经济在20世纪下半叶的表现进行实证评估,为这些辩论提供信息。通过对邻国的比较以及对独立后转向社会主义的发展中国家的更正式的实证分析,我们得出了一组关于引入计划社会主义经济对长期增长和发展的影响程度的估计。我们的研究结果有力地表明,在实行社会主义后的第一个十年里,中国的年增长率将下降大约两个百分点。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding trends in Chinese skill premiums, 2007–2018 了解2007-2018年中国技能溢价的趋势
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.04.001
Eric A. Hanushek , Yuan Wang , Lei Zhang
The dramatic changes in China from expansion of the education system and transformation of the economy allow us to investigate how the market rewards skills. We estimate the evolution of the labor market returns to cognitive skills and to a college degree in China between 2007 and 2018. The return to cognitive skills is virtually constant at 10 % for full-time workers with at least a high school education, whereas the college premium (relative to high school graduation) drops by >20 percentage points. Regional differences in returns highlight the importance of differential demand factors. The returns to college degrees are somewhat higher in economically more developed regions but the declining trend is most pronounced in the most developed region. The return to cognitive skills weakly increases in more developed regions and weakly decreases in less developed regions. Overall returns to cognitive skills are comparable to more-developed OECD countries.
中国教育体系的扩张和经济转型带来的巨大变化,使我们能够研究市场是如何奖励技能的。我们估计了2007年至2018年间中国劳动力市场向认知技能和大学学位的回归。对于至少受过高中教育的全职员工来说,认知技能的回报率实际上一直保持在10%,而大学教育的溢价(相对于高中毕业)则下降了20个百分点。区域回报的差异突出了不同需求因素的重要性。在经济较发达的地区,大学学位的回报略高,但在最发达的地区,这种下降趋势最为明显。认知技能的回归在较发达地区略有增加,在较不发达地区略有下降。认知技能的总体回报与更发达的经合组织国家相当。
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引用次数: 0
Slavery and collectivism in the postbellum American South 战后美国南方的奴隶制和集体主义
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.03.006
Yeonha Jung
The deep marks of American slavery extend to cultural traits. This study suggests that historical slave concentration was followed by more collectivist cultures, with this relationship becoming evident after Reconstruction. Our proposed mechanism rests on the interaction between slavery and subsequent institutional changes: historical prevalence of slavery led to a stronger implementation of post-Reconstruction policies aimed at restoring the racial hierarchy, contributing to the reinforcement of group identity and collectivism. County-level evidence supports this hypothesis. Using the share of uncommon names as a proxy for individualism-collectivism, we show that the relationship between slavery and collectivism emerged after Reconstruction. Beyond the temporal coincidence, we present a case study on anti-enticement laws to investigate the institutional mechanism of this cultural shift. The cultural legacy of slavery persists to this day, as evidenced by survey-based outcomes and measures of civic engagement.
美国奴隶制的深刻印记延伸到了文化特征上。这项研究表明,历史上的奴隶集中之后是更多的集体主义文化,这种关系在重建后变得明显。我们提出的机制基于奴隶制与随后的制度变迁之间的相互作用:奴隶制的历史盛行导致了旨在恢复种族等级制度的重建后政策的更有力实施,有助于加强群体认同和集体主义。县级证据支持这一假设。我们使用罕见名字的比例作为个人主义-集体主义的代表,表明奴隶制和集体主义之间的关系出现在重建之后。除了时间上的巧合,我们提出了一个关于反引诱法的案例研究,以探讨这种文化转变的制度机制。奴隶制的文化遗产一直延续到今天,基于调查的结果和公民参与的措施证明了这一点。
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引用次数: 0
Intergenerational effects of parental human capital on children: Evidence from Malawi 父母人力资本对儿童的代际影响:来自马拉维的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.03.001
Youjin Hahn , Minji Kwak , Hyelim Son
We investigate the intergenerational transmission of parental education on children’s outcomes in Malawi. Using the variations induced by the Free Primary Education reform implemented in 1994, we find that an extra year of mothers’ and fathers’ schooling increases children’s schooling years by 0.19 and 0.16 years, respectively. Children with more educated mothers are less likely to work, while no such evidence is found for children with more educated fathers. We examine an array of potential mechanisms, including assortative mating, reduced fertility, and improvements in family resources. We find that spousal quality, fertility response, and a narrower age gap between spouses may be the underlying channels for the intergenerational transmission of education.
我们调查了马拉维父母教育对儿童结果的代际传递。利用1994年实施的免费小学教育改革引起的变化,我们发现母亲和父亲每多受一年教育,儿童的受教育年限分别增加0.19年和0.16年。母亲受教育程度高的孩子不太可能工作,而父亲受教育程度高的孩子则没有这样的证据。我们研究了一系列潜在的机制,包括选择性交配、生育率降低和家庭资源的改善。我们发现配偶质量、生育反应和配偶之间年龄差距的缩小可能是教育代际传递的潜在渠道。
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引用次数: 0
The shadow of slavery on industrial innovation: Evidence from the US South 奴隶制对工业创新的影响:来自美国南方的证据
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2025.03.003
Yeonha Jung , Chungeun Yoon
The abolition of American slavery was a profound shock to the southern economy, but little is known about its effect on industrial innovation. This study hypothesizes that historical slave concentration was followed by a slowdown in industrial innovation after the Civil War, due to technical change biased toward unskilled labor. Moreover, given the shifts in labor market conditions in the postbellum South, we propose that this relationship became evident after Reconstruction. County-level evidence supports this hypothesis; counties where slavery was more prevalent in 1860 experienced a relative decline in manufacturing patents in the post-Reconstruction period. The role of technical change as a mechanism is supported in two dimensions. First, the reduction in innovation was more pronounced in low-skill industries, which were better suited to unskill-biased technical change. Second, the return to literacy in the industrial sector decreased with the historical prevalence of slavery, a finding that suggests a decline in skill demand.
美国奴隶制的废除对南方经济造成了深刻的冲击,但它对工业创新的影响却鲜为人知。本研究假设,历史上奴隶集中之后,由于技术变革偏向于非熟练劳动力,内战后工业创新放缓。此外,考虑到南北战争后南方劳动力市场状况的变化,我们认为这种关系在重建后变得明显。县级证据支持这一假设;1860年奴隶制更为盛行的县在重建后的时期制造业专利数量相对下降。技术变革作为一种机制的作用在两个方面得到了支持。首先,创新的减少在低技能行业更为明显,这些行业更适合非技能偏向的技术变革。其次,随着历史上奴隶制的盛行,工业部门的识字率下降,这一发现表明技能需求下降。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Comparative Economics
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