Electoral Studies最新文献

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Preaching to the converted: Misinformation and voter preferences in election campaigns 向皈依者说教：竞选活动中的错误信息和选民偏好

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103003

Ursula Daxecker, Neeraj Prasad

Politicians frequently sponsor misinformation during election campaigns, but its effectiveness in shifting voters' policy preferences and beliefs remains unclear. We argue that the efficacy of campaign misinformation depends on whether it latches onto partisan or non-partisan identities. Misinformation that primes non-partisan but politically relevant social identities could appeal to voters sharing these social identities, potentially moving supporters and non-supporters closer to the issue position of the sponsor of misinformation. If, on the other hand, misinformation is processed along partisan lines, it appeals only to existing supporters. Our empirical analysis is based on a pre-registered vignette experiment embedded in a representative post-election survey in India. Our design mimics the opposition's use of campaign misinformation to polarize voters' preferences and beliefs on issues of religion. We find that misinformation was only partly effective. While some co-partisans increased their support of the policy position advocated by the misinformer, messages failed to persuade non-supporters, and were easily corrected among co-partisans. We demonstrate the broader relevance of these results with a replication of campaign misinformation in the United States.

政客们经常在竞选期间赞助虚假信息，但它在改变选民的政策偏好和信仰方面的效果尚不清楚。我们认为，竞选错误信息的有效性取决于它是否锁定了党派或无党派身份。启动无党派但政治上相关的社会身份的错误信息可能会吸引拥有这些社会身份的选民，潜在地使支持者和非支持者更接近错误信息发起者的问题立场。另一方面，如果错误信息是按照党派路线处理的，那么它只会吸引现有的支持者。我们的实证分析是基于一个预先登记的小插曲实验嵌入在一个有代表性的选举后调查在印度。我们的设计模仿了反对派利用竞选错误信息来分化选民在宗教问题上的偏好和信仰。我们发现，错误信息只是部分有效。虽然一些同党人士增加了对错误消息者所主张的政策立场的支持，但这些信息未能说服非支持者，而且很容易在同党人士中得到纠正。我们证明了这些结果与美国竞选错误信息的复制具有更广泛的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Mass higher education and voter turnout in the U.S. 美国大规模的高等教育和选民投票率

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103002

Eric R. Hansen

Have turnout rates in the U.S. risen as more Americans have attained college degrees? Educational attainment is associated with a higher likelihood of voting among individuals, but scholars remain skeptical that increases in mass education levels are associated with higher turnout in populations. I argue that higher rates of college degree attainment not only raise turnout rates among graduates themselves but have positive externalities for turnout in graduates’ communities. To test the relationship at the aggregate level in the U.S., I turn to data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1980 to 2020, when college education rates rose nationwide but at varying rates by state. Under several modeling strategies, I find voter turnout increased most in states where college-educated populations grew most quickly, while turnout held steady in states where educational gains were more modest. Replicating the main findings using county-level data over the same period yields similar conclusions. The results have important implications for studying mass turnout and for efforts to increase participation in the U.S.

随着越来越多的美国人获得大学学位，美国的投票率是否有所上升？受教育程度与个人更高的投票可能性有关，但学者们仍然对大众教育水平的提高与人口投票率的提高有关持怀疑态度。我认为，更高的大学学位获得率不仅提高了毕业生本身的投票率，而且对毕业生所在社区的投票率具有正外部性。为了在美国总体水平上检验这种关系，我查阅了1980年至2020年美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区的数据，当时大学教育率在全国范围内上升，但各州的上升幅度各不相同。根据几种建模策略，我发现在受过大学教育的人口增长最快的州，选民投票率增长最快，而在受教育程度较低的州，投票率保持稳定。使用同一时期的县级数据复制主要发现，得出了类似的结论。研究结果对研究大规模投票率以及提高美国选民参与度的努力具有重要意义

引用次数: 0

The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe 未能实现的向上流动的承诺和对西欧激进左翼政党的支持

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999

José Pedro Lopes

In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb or pay adequately. As a result, they experience frustration from the unfulfilled promises of upward mobility. In this article, I contend that this experience of incomplete upward mobility is driving support for Radical Left Parties (RLPs) in Europe. Drawing on European Social Survey data, focusing on a sample of 24 RLPs in 15 Western European countries during a 15-year period (2008–2023), I explore how education mobility, class mobility and income interact in explaining radical left support. I find that radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially.

近几十年来，教育的扩张造就了大量的大学毕业生，而劳动力市场越来越无法吸收这些毕业生，也无法支付足够的工资。因此，他们对未能实现向上流动的承诺感到沮丧。在本文中，我认为这种不完全向上流动的经历推动了欧洲激进左翼政党（rlp）的支持。利用欧洲社会调查的数据，重点关注15个西欧国家15年（2008-2023）期间的24个rlp样本，我探讨了教育流动性、阶级流动性和收入如何相互作用，以解释激进左翼的支持。我发现，对于那些学习比父母多、无法实现上层阶级流动的人，以及那些经历了上层阶级流动但仍在经济上挣扎的人，激进左派的支持率会增加。

引用次数: 0

Corruption and accountability: Electoral systems, vote choice, and voter expectations for political parties 腐败与问责制：选举制度、投票选择和选民对政党的期望

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102998

Tiffany D. Barnes , Emily Beaulieu

Why do some politicians’ careers survive political scandals while others are unable to recover? In this research note, we consider the critical role of electoral systems. We argue that in candidate-centered electoral systems, where voters cast their ballots for individual candidates (e.g., single member districts)—rather than political parties (e.g., closed-list proportional representation)—voters are more likely to hold candidates accountable for corruption at the ballot box. By contrast, in party-centered electoral systems, voters are likely to shift the responsibility to the party. Further, we anticipate voter expectations of party accountability are heightened when removing a candidate is relatively low-cost to the party. To assess how electoral systems influence accountability in the context of corruption, we analyze data from a survey experiment conducted in Taiwan—a democracy with a mixed-member majoritarian system with parallel voting. This context allows us to hold constant cultural and political factors that may otherwise influence outcomes, while manipulating the electoral system. We find voters are more likely to hold candidates directly accountable in candidate-centered systems, regardless of partisan preferences. Results regarding party expectations are less conclusive, with only a suggestion of expectations of party accountability in party-centered systems, when the candidate in questions is less competitive.

为什么有些政客的职业生涯能在政治丑闻中幸存下来，而另一些人却无法恢复？在这份研究报告中，我们考虑了选举制度的关键作用。我们认为，在以候选人为中心的选举制度中，选民将选票投给个人候选人（例如，单一成员区），而不是政党（例如，封闭名单比例代表制），选民更有可能要求候选人对投票箱中的腐败负责。相反，在以政党为中心的选举制度下，选民很可能把责任推卸给政党。此外，我们预计，当取消候选人对政党来说成本相对较低时，选民对政党问责制的期望会提高。为了评估选举制度如何影响腐败背景下的问责制，我们分析了在台湾进行的一项调查实验的数据——台湾是一个采用混合成员多数制并行投票的民主国家。这种背景使我们能够在操纵选举制度的同时，保持可能影响结果的文化和政治因素。我们发现，在以候选人为中心的制度中，选民更有可能让候选人直接负责，而不管党派偏好如何。关于政党期望的结果不太确定，只有在候选人竞争力较弱的情况下，在以政党为中心的制度中对政党问责的期望。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of incumbency in a mixed-member electoral system 在任者在混合成员选举制度中的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988

B.K. Song

In this study, I demonstrate that incumbency advantage can arise for different reasons across electoral systems by examining a mixed-member system. My findings from a regression discontinuity design indicate that an incumbency advantage exists in both district and proportional representation (PR) tiers. Additionally, I provide evidence that distinct mechanisms underpin these advantages: parties strategically assign favorable ballot positions to incumbents from both tiers when competing for district seats, but this party-driven advantage is more pronounced for PR incumbents. By contrast, voter support mechanisms mainly favor district incumbents. Finally, I demonstrate that this incumbency advantage is short-lived for both tiers, which implies that an entry-level political office does not necessarily serve as a springboard for career politicians in the South Korean mixed-member system.

在本研究中，我通过研究混合成员制度，证明在任优势可能因不同原因在选举制度中产生。我从回归不连续设计中得出的结果表明，选区和比例代表制（PR）两层都存在任职优势。此外，我提供的证据表明，不同的机制支撑着这些优势：在争夺地区席位时，政党战略性地为来自两个阶层的现任者分配有利的选票位置，但这种政党驱动的优势在公关现任者身上更为明显。相比之下，选民支持机制主要支持地区现任官员。最后，我证明了这种任职优势对两个阶层来说都是短暂的，这意味着在韩国的混合成员制度中，初级政治职位不一定是职业政治家的跳板。

引用次数: 0

Cultivating trust? The role of European Union investments in bridging rural-urban divides 培养信任?欧盟投资在弥合城乡差距方面的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102987

Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu , Leo Azzollini , Anne-Marie Jeannet

Over the last decades, agricultural policies and structural investment funds for regional development have been central to European integration. However, the political effects of these funds, designed to enhance economic and social cohesion within the European Union and address regional disparities, remain contested. Existing research has established that rural residents tend to exhibit lower levels of political trust in the European Union compared to their urban counterparts. In this paper, we empirically examine whether institutional investments can mitigate the urban-rural divide in political trust toward the European Union. Specifically, we explore the potential of EU funds to enhance trust by fostering regional economic dynamics, and whether this is socially stratified. Analyzing 17 waves of Eurobarometer data (2003–2020) across 27 European countries, 99 regions, and around 370,000 individuals, we find that the rural-urban divide tends to be mitigated in regions receiving higher levels of investment. Moreover, we observe that EU investments disproportionately predict higher trust among individuals from middle to lower socioeconomic strata compared to those from upper strata, narrowing the gap at higher levels of investment (15–18 % of a standard deviation). Examining the intersection of rural-urban and socio-economic divides, we observe that EU funds are more likely to predict higher trust amongst individuals from lower social strata, and the lowest trust among those from upper social strata. Our results imply that European institutional investment can reduce the gap between urban and rural residents due to the differences in the socio-demographic composition of these places.

过去几十年来，农业政策和区域发展结构性投资基金一直是欧洲一体化的核心。然而，这些旨在加强欧洲联盟内部经济和社会凝聚力并解决区域差距的基金的政治影响仍然存在争议。现有研究表明，与城市居民相比，农村居民对欧盟的政治信任水平往往较低。本文实证考察了机构投资能否缓解城乡对欧盟政治信任的差异。具体而言，我们探讨了欧盟基金通过促进区域经济动态来增强信任的潜力，以及这是否具有社会分层性。通过分析欧洲27个国家、99个地区、约37万人的17波Eurobarometer数据（2003-2020年），我们发现，在投资水平较高的地区，城乡差距趋于缓解。此外，我们观察到，欧盟投资不成比例地预测了来自中低社会经济阶层的个人与来自上层社会经济阶层的个人之间的更高信任度，从而缩小了较高投资水平的差距（标准差的15 - 18%）。研究城乡和社会经济鸿沟的交叉点，我们观察到欧盟基金更有可能预测来自较低社会阶层的个人之间的更高信任，而来自较高社会阶层的个人之间的最低信任。我们的研究结果表明，欧洲机构投资可以缩小城乡居民之间的差距，因为这些地方的社会人口构成的差异。

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引用次数: 0

Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting 协助投票？残疾是投票的代价

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997

Michael C. Herron , Daniel A. Smith

Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly available administrative data from five recent general elections in Florida (2014–2022), we offer a portrait of individuals who have attested when registering to vote that they need assistance when voting. Then, leveraging turnout data as well as vote-by-mail (VBM) requests and returned ballot data from our five elections, we model turnout and the likelihood of having a rejected VBM ballot as a function of the need for voting assistance, among other voter-level factors. We find that the rate of registered voters needing assistance has remained steady in Florida at roughly three percent, that older and racial/ethnic minority voters are more likely to attest that they need assistance to vote, and that, all things equal, voters needing assistance not only have a lower overall turnout rate but also are slightly more likely to have their VBM ballots rejected than registered voters who do not indicate they need assistance to vote.

数千万符合投票资格的美国残疾人，其中许多人在投票时需要某种形式的帮助。根据佛罗里达州最近五次大选（2014-2022年）的公开行政数据，我们提供了一幅在登记投票时证明他们在投票时需要帮助的个人肖像。然后，利用投票率数据、邮件投票（VBM）请求和从五次选举中返回的选票数据，我们将投票率和被拒绝的VBM选票的可能性建模为投票协助需求的函数，以及其他选民层面的因素。我们发现，在佛罗里达州，需要帮助的登记选民的比例一直稳定在3%左右，老年人和种族/少数民族选民更有可能证明他们需要帮助才能投票，而且，在所有条件相同的情况下，需要帮助的选民不仅总体投票率较低，而且他们的VBM选票被拒绝的可能性也略高于不需要帮助才能投票的登记选民。

引用次数: 0

Facts Speak Louder? Comparing the attention effects of moral and factual framing of political issues 事实更响亮？比较政治问题的道德框架和事实框架的注意效果

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996

Michal Tóth , Tadeáš Celý , Roman Chytilek

The media and political actors play a crucial role in shaping public attention, not only by selecting which issues to highlight but also by framing them in ways that influence public perception and engagement. Given the increasing prominence of moralized discourse in political communication, we examine whether moral framing is more effective in capturing public attention compared to factual framing, which relies on empirical evidence and rational argumentation. To examine this question, we conducted two preregistered experimental studies using different methods to measure attention: an eye-tracking experiment (N = 99) and a large-scale online survey (N = 1563). Participants were exposed to political issues that are not predominantly associated with either type of framing and were randomly assigned to conditions where the issues were framed either morally or factually. Our findings indicate that moral framing does not consistently attract more attention than factual framing. In fact, in some situations, factual frames were associated with slightly higher levels of audience attention. Understanding these dynamics is crucial in an age of information overload, when competition for public attention is intense and public debate is often dominated by emotional or value-driven messages. Additionally, our research contributes to ongoing debates about the implications of moral framing, particularly its potential to polarize audiences or divert attention from evidence-based decision-making.

媒体和政治行为者在塑造公众注意力方面发挥着至关重要的作用，不仅通过选择突出哪些问题，而且通过以影响公众看法和参与的方式构建这些问题。鉴于道德话语在政治传播中的日益突出，我们研究了道德框架是否比事实框架更有效地吸引公众注意力，事实框架依赖于经验证据和理性论证。为了研究这个问题，我们进行了两项预先注册的实验研究，使用不同的方法来测量注意力：一项眼球追踪实验（N = 99）和一项大规模在线调查（N = 1563）。参与者接触到的政治问题与这两种框架都不主要相关，并被随机分配到问题被道德或事实框架的条件下。我们的研究结果表明，道德框架并不总是比事实框架吸引更多的注意力。事实上，在某些情况下，事实框架与观众的注意力水平略有提高有关。在信息超载的时代，理解这些动态是至关重要的，因为争夺公众注意力的竞争非常激烈，公众辩论往往被情感或价值驱动的信息所主导。此外，我们的研究有助于对道德框架影响的持续争论，特别是它可能使受众两极分化或转移对循证决策的注意力。

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引用次数: 0

Learning to vote in democratic and authoritarian elections 学习在民主和专制选举中投票

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985

Anja Neundorf , Ksenia Northmore-Ball

High turnout levels are key to legitimacy in new democracies, ultimately contributing to their consolidation. However, little is known about the determinants of long-term electoral participation and how the legacies of authoritarian and democratic elections compare. To investigate these individual-level legacies, we rely on socialization and institutional theories of turnout, which have not been tested in authoritarian settings. We rely on newly harmonized public opinion data covering over 106 countries from 1975 to 2016 to estimate generational differences in propensity to vote. Leveraging within-country variation, we confirm the positive effects of early opportunities on turnout later in life. Generations of voters who experienced their formative years in authoritarian contexts without national elections are less likely to take up opportunities to vote later in life than those with some formative experience of elections, even uncompetitive ones. However, experiencing high numbers of uncompetitive elections, typical in authoritarian elections, can jade voters.

高投票率是新兴民主国家合法性的关键，最终有助于民主国家的巩固。然而，人们对长期选举参与的决定因素以及威权选举和民主选举的遗产如何比较知之甚少。为了研究这些个人层面的遗产，我们依赖于投票率的社会化和制度理论，这些理论尚未在威权环境中得到检验。我们依靠最新统一的民意数据，涵盖了超过106个国家，从1975年到2016年，来估计投票倾向的代际差异。利用国家内部的差异，我们证实了早期机会对以后生活中的投票率的积极影响。那些在没有全国大选的威权主义背景下经历成长期的几代选民，在以后的生活中不太可能抓住机会投票，而那些有过一些选举成长期经历的人，即使是没有竞争的选举。然而，经历大量的非竞争性选举（典型的专制选举）可能会削弱选民。

引用次数: 0

Issue congruence outweighs geography: Understanding the appeal of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in east and west Germany 议题一致性胜过地理：理解BSW在东德和西德的吸引力

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102986

Jan Philipp Thomeczek , Aiko Wagner

引用次数: 0

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