Electoral Studies最新文献_第5页

Patterns of regional and local council size 区域和地方议会规模的模式

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103007

Simon Otjes

There is a growing literature that examines how subnational assembly size affects policy outcomes like turnout and women's representation, but also infant mortality and school enrollment. Political scientists know little about what shapes subnational assembly size, however. In this article, I analyse three possible explanations: firstly, building on the work of Taagepera, I propose that population size and assembly size are related: larger populations require greater assemblies following some power relationship. Secondly, I propose that the level of autonomy a subnational entity enjoys may be correlated with the size of the assembly: if a region or municipality has more autonomy, its assembly is likely to be larger. Thirdly, I propose that municipal councils that can determine their own size, will be larger, as representatives seek to ensure re-election. I test these explanations on over 600 regional assemblies in 31 OECD and EU countries and 80,000 municipalities in 31 European countries. I find that population size is the strongest predictor of council size and that the autonomy of the subnational entity is also a significant predictor and that freedom to determine assembly size is not consistently related to assembly size.

越来越多的文献研究了地方议会的规模如何影响投票率和妇女代表等政策结果，以及婴儿死亡率和入学率。然而，政治学家对决定地方议会规模的因素知之甚少。在本文中，我分析了三种可能的解释：首先，基于taagpera的工作，我提出人口规模和集会规模是相关的：在某种权力关系下，更大的人口需要更大的集会。其次，我提出次国家实体享有的自治程度可能与议会的规模有关：如果一个地区或直辖市拥有更多的自治权，其议会可能更大。第三，我建议能够决定其本身规模的市政委员会扩大，因为代表们寻求确保再次当选。我在31个经合组织和欧盟国家的600多个地区议会以及31个欧洲国家的8万个城市对这些解释进行了测试。我发现人口规模是理事会规模的最强预测因子，次国家实体的自治权也是一个重要的预测因子，而决定集会规模的自由并不总是与集会规模相关。

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引用次数: 0

Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting 协助投票？残疾是投票的代价

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102997

Michael C. Herron , Daniel A. Smith

Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly available administrative data from five recent general elections in Florida (2014–2022), we offer a portrait of individuals who have attested when registering to vote that they need assistance when voting. Then, leveraging turnout data as well as vote-by-mail (VBM) requests and returned ballot data from our five elections, we model turnout and the likelihood of having a rejected VBM ballot as a function of the need for voting assistance, among other voter-level factors. We find that the rate of registered voters needing assistance has remained steady in Florida at roughly three percent, that older and racial/ethnic minority voters are more likely to attest that they need assistance to vote, and that, all things equal, voters needing assistance not only have a lower overall turnout rate but also are slightly more likely to have their VBM ballots rejected than registered voters who do not indicate they need assistance to vote.

数千万符合投票资格的美国残疾人，其中许多人在投票时需要某种形式的帮助。根据佛罗里达州最近五次大选（2014-2022年）的公开行政数据，我们提供了一幅在登记投票时证明他们在投票时需要帮助的个人肖像。然后，利用投票率数据、邮件投票（VBM）请求和从五次选举中返回的选票数据，我们将投票率和被拒绝的VBM选票的可能性建模为投票协助需求的函数，以及其他选民层面的因素。我们发现，在佛罗里达州，需要帮助的登记选民的比例一直稳定在3%左右，老年人和种族/少数民族选民更有可能证明他们需要帮助才能投票，而且，在所有条件相同的情况下，需要帮助的选民不仅总体投票率较低，而且他们的VBM选票被拒绝的可能性也略高于不需要帮助才能投票的登记选民。

引用次数: 0

The effect of incumbency in a mixed-member electoral system 在任者在混合成员选举制度中的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102988

B.K. Song

In this study, I demonstrate that incumbency advantage can arise for different reasons across electoral systems by examining a mixed-member system. My findings from a regression discontinuity design indicate that an incumbency advantage exists in both district and proportional representation (PR) tiers. Additionally, I provide evidence that distinct mechanisms underpin these advantages: parties strategically assign favorable ballot positions to incumbents from both tiers when competing for district seats, but this party-driven advantage is more pronounced for PR incumbents. By contrast, voter support mechanisms mainly favor district incumbents. Finally, I demonstrate that this incumbency advantage is short-lived for both tiers, which implies that an entry-level political office does not necessarily serve as a springboard for career politicians in the South Korean mixed-member system.

在本研究中，我通过研究混合成员制度，证明在任优势可能因不同原因在选举制度中产生。我从回归不连续设计中得出的结果表明，选区和比例代表制（PR）两层都存在任职优势。此外，我提供的证据表明，不同的机制支撑着这些优势：在争夺地区席位时，政党战略性地为来自两个阶层的现任者分配有利的选票位置，但这种政党驱动的优势在公关现任者身上更为明显。相比之下，选民支持机制主要支持地区现任官员。最后，我证明了这种任职优势对两个阶层来说都是短暂的，这意味着在韩国的混合成员制度中，初级政治职位不一定是职业政治家的跳板。

引用次数: 0

The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe 未能实现的向上流动的承诺和对西欧激进左翼政党的支持

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999

José Pedro Lopes

In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb or pay adequately. As a result, they experience frustration from the unfulfilled promises of upward mobility. In this article, I contend that this experience of incomplete upward mobility is driving support for Radical Left Parties (RLPs) in Europe. Drawing on European Social Survey data, focusing on a sample of 24 RLPs in 15 Western European countries during a 15-year period (2008–2023), I explore how education mobility, class mobility and income interact in explaining radical left support. I find that radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially.

近几十年来，教育的扩张造就了大量的大学毕业生，而劳动力市场越来越无法吸收这些毕业生，也无法支付足够的工资。因此，他们对未能实现向上流动的承诺感到沮丧。在本文中，我认为这种不完全向上流动的经历推动了欧洲激进左翼政党（rlp）的支持。利用欧洲社会调查的数据，重点关注15个西欧国家15年（2008-2023）期间的24个rlp样本，我探讨了教育流动性、阶级流动性和收入如何相互作用，以解释激进左翼的支持。我发现，对于那些学习比父母多、无法实现上层阶级流动的人，以及那些经历了上层阶级流动但仍在经济上挣扎的人，激进左派的支持率会增加。

引用次数: 0

Emphasizing or downplaying political ambitions: Exploring the role of candidate gender in shaping voter perceptions 强调或淡化政治野心：探讨候选人性别在塑造选民观念中的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103004

Yuya Endo, Yoshikuni Ono

Do male and female candidates benefit equally from disclosing their political ambition during electoral campaigns? While candidates for elective office are typically ambitious, voters may not reward female candidates to the same extent as male candidates for openly expressing such ambition. This may be because prevalent stereotypes portray women as modest and reserved, potentially clashing with the ostensibly masculine traits associated with political office. To examine this issue, we conducted a vignette experiment in Japan in which we randomly varied a candidate’s gender and stated motivation for seeking office. Our findings reveal that disclosing political ambitions, when framed as a personal choice, benefits both male and female candidates. However, male candidates who openly display ambition are perceived as more popular among the public, whereas female candidates do not receive the same benefit—even though they are rated as equally likable. This subtle disadvantage points to a nuanced gender bias mechanism: rather than stemming from direct voter disapproval, it arises from second-order beliefs that ambitious female candidates are less likely to attract broad voter support. Such perceptions may constrain women’s electoral success, deter them from openly expressing ambition, and reinforce gender disparities in political representation. These results suggest that efforts to reduce gender gaps in political leadership must address not only overt stereotypes but also voters’ perceptions of the electoral viability of ambitious female candidates.

男性和女性候选人在竞选期间公开自己的政治抱负是否同样受益？虽然竞选公职的候选人通常雄心勃勃，但选民可能不会因为女性候选人公开表达这种雄心壮志而给予男性候选人同样的奖励。这可能是因为普遍的刻板印象将女性描绘成谦虚和保守的形象，这可能与与政治职位相关的表面上的男性特征相冲突。为了研究这个问题，我们在日本进行了一个小插曲实验，在这个实验中，我们随机改变了候选人的性别，并陈述了竞选公职的动机。我们的研究结果表明，将政治抱负作为一种个人选择，对男性和女性候选人都有好处。然而，公开表现出雄心壮志的男性候选人被认为更受公众欢迎，而女性候选人却没有得到同样的好处——尽管他们被评为同样讨人喜欢。这种微妙的劣势指出了一种微妙的性别偏见机制：它不是源于选民的直接反对，而是源于二阶信念，即雄心勃勃的女性候选人不太可能吸引广泛的选民支持。这种看法可能限制妇女的选举成功，阻止她们公开表达抱负，并加剧政治代表中的性别差异。这些结果表明，要想缩小政治领导层中的性别差距，不仅要解决公开的刻板印象，还要解决选民对雄心勃勃的女性候选人在选举中的可行性的看法。

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引用次数: 0

Left parties’ strategies and working-class vote in contemporary Western Europe (2002–2020) 当代西欧左翼政党战略与工人阶级投票（2002-2020）

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103006

Federico Trastulli

What should the left do strategically to retain workers' vote? This paper provides extensive empirical evidence on the relationship between left parties' different programmatic strategies and workers' electoral support in 19 Western European countries over the past 2 decades (2002–2020), focussing on economic and cultural positions, salience, and party-system polarisation. Multilevel analyses of ESS data show that, most of all, working-class respondents' probability of voting for a left party has been significantly higher in contemporary Western Europe when such parties put greater emphasis on cultural issues, regardless of position. The left's engagement with increasingly important cultural matters is rewarded by working-class voters, rather than seen as compromising on its class roots. Whilst this finding applies across left parties, more disaggregated analyses show that support for social democratic parties is considerably more sensitive to different supply-side strategies than support for radical left parties: i.e., both on cultural and economic issues.

左翼应该采取什么策略来保持工人的选票？本文提供了广泛的经验证据，证明过去20年（2002-2020年）19个西欧国家左翼政党的不同纲领战略与工人选举支持之间的关系，重点关注经济和文化地位、突出性和政党制度两极分化。对ESS数据的多层次分析表明，最重要的是，在当代西欧，工人阶级受访者投票给左翼政党的可能性要高得多，因为这些政党更加重视文化问题，而不管立场如何。左翼参与日益重要的文化事务得到了工薪阶层选民的奖励，而不是被视为对其阶级根源的妥协。虽然这一发现适用于所有左翼政党，但更多的分类分析表明，对社会民主党的支持对不同的供给侧策略比对激进左翼政党的支持要敏感得多：即，在文化和经济问题上。

引用次数: 0

Preaching to the converted: Misinformation and voter preferences in election campaigns 向皈依者说教：竞选活动中的错误信息和选民偏好

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103003

Ursula Daxecker, Neeraj Prasad

Politicians frequently sponsor misinformation during election campaigns, but its effectiveness in shifting voters' policy preferences and beliefs remains unclear. We argue that the efficacy of campaign misinformation depends on whether it latches onto partisan or non-partisan identities. Misinformation that primes non-partisan but politically relevant social identities could appeal to voters sharing these social identities, potentially moving supporters and non-supporters closer to the issue position of the sponsor of misinformation. If, on the other hand, misinformation is processed along partisan lines, it appeals only to existing supporters. Our empirical analysis is based on a pre-registered vignette experiment embedded in a representative post-election survey in India. Our design mimics the opposition's use of campaign misinformation to polarize voters' preferences and beliefs on issues of religion. We find that misinformation was only partly effective. While some co-partisans increased their support of the policy position advocated by the misinformer, messages failed to persuade non-supporters, and were easily corrected among co-partisans. We demonstrate the broader relevance of these results with a replication of campaign misinformation in the United States.

政客们经常在竞选期间赞助虚假信息，但它在改变选民的政策偏好和信仰方面的效果尚不清楚。我们认为，竞选错误信息的有效性取决于它是否锁定了党派或无党派身份。启动无党派但政治上相关的社会身份的错误信息可能会吸引拥有这些社会身份的选民，潜在地使支持者和非支持者更接近错误信息发起者的问题立场。另一方面，如果错误信息是按照党派路线处理的，那么它只会吸引现有的支持者。我们的实证分析是基于一个预先登记的小插曲实验嵌入在一个有代表性的选举后调查在印度。我们的设计模仿了反对派利用竞选错误信息来分化选民在宗教问题上的偏好和信仰。我们发现，错误信息只是部分有效。虽然一些同党人士增加了对错误消息者所主张的政策立场的支持，但这些信息未能说服非支持者，而且很容易在同党人士中得到纠正。我们证明了这些结果与美国竞选错误信息的复制具有更广泛的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Cultivating trust? The role of European Union investments in bridging rural-urban divides 培养信任?欧盟投资在弥合城乡差距方面的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102987

Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu , Leo Azzollini , Anne-Marie Jeannet

Over the last decades, agricultural policies and structural investment funds for regional development have been central to European integration. However, the political effects of these funds, designed to enhance economic and social cohesion within the European Union and address regional disparities, remain contested. Existing research has established that rural residents tend to exhibit lower levels of political trust in the European Union compared to their urban counterparts. In this paper, we empirically examine whether institutional investments can mitigate the urban-rural divide in political trust toward the European Union. Specifically, we explore the potential of EU funds to enhance trust by fostering regional economic dynamics, and whether this is socially stratified. Analyzing 17 waves of Eurobarometer data (2003–2020) across 27 European countries, 99 regions, and around 370,000 individuals, we find that the rural-urban divide tends to be mitigated in regions receiving higher levels of investment. Moreover, we observe that EU investments disproportionately predict higher trust among individuals from middle to lower socioeconomic strata compared to those from upper strata, narrowing the gap at higher levels of investment (15–18 % of a standard deviation). Examining the intersection of rural-urban and socio-economic divides, we observe that EU funds are more likely to predict higher trust amongst individuals from lower social strata, and the lowest trust among those from upper social strata. Our results imply that European institutional investment can reduce the gap between urban and rural residents due to the differences in the socio-demographic composition of these places.

过去几十年来，农业政策和区域发展结构性投资基金一直是欧洲一体化的核心。然而，这些旨在加强欧洲联盟内部经济和社会凝聚力并解决区域差距的基金的政治影响仍然存在争议。现有研究表明，与城市居民相比，农村居民对欧盟的政治信任水平往往较低。本文实证考察了机构投资能否缓解城乡对欧盟政治信任的差异。具体而言，我们探讨了欧盟基金通过促进区域经济动态来增强信任的潜力，以及这是否具有社会分层性。通过分析欧洲27个国家、99个地区、约37万人的17波Eurobarometer数据（2003-2020年），我们发现，在投资水平较高的地区，城乡差距趋于缓解。此外，我们观察到，欧盟投资不成比例地预测了来自中低社会经济阶层的个人与来自上层社会经济阶层的个人之间的更高信任度，从而缩小了较高投资水平的差距（标准差的15 - 18%）。研究城乡和社会经济鸿沟的交叉点，我们观察到欧盟基金更有可能预测来自较低社会阶层的个人之间的更高信任，而来自较高社会阶层的个人之间的最低信任。我们的研究结果表明，欧洲机构投资可以缩小城乡居民之间的差距，因为这些地方的社会人口构成的差异。

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引用次数: 0

Corruption and accountability: Electoral systems, vote choice, and voter expectations for political parties 腐败与问责制：选举制度、投票选择和选民对政党的期望

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102998

Tiffany D. Barnes , Emily Beaulieu

Why do some politicians’ careers survive political scandals while others are unable to recover? In this research note, we consider the critical role of electoral systems. We argue that in candidate-centered electoral systems, where voters cast their ballots for individual candidates (e.g., single member districts)—rather than political parties (e.g., closed-list proportional representation)—voters are more likely to hold candidates accountable for corruption at the ballot box. By contrast, in party-centered electoral systems, voters are likely to shift the responsibility to the party. Further, we anticipate voter expectations of party accountability are heightened when removing a candidate is relatively low-cost to the party. To assess how electoral systems influence accountability in the context of corruption, we analyze data from a survey experiment conducted in Taiwan—a democracy with a mixed-member majoritarian system with parallel voting. This context allows us to hold constant cultural and political factors that may otherwise influence outcomes, while manipulating the electoral system. We find voters are more likely to hold candidates directly accountable in candidate-centered systems, regardless of partisan preferences. Results regarding party expectations are less conclusive, with only a suggestion of expectations of party accountability in party-centered systems, when the candidate in questions is less competitive.

为什么有些政客的职业生涯能在政治丑闻中幸存下来，而另一些人却无法恢复？在这份研究报告中，我们考虑了选举制度的关键作用。我们认为，在以候选人为中心的选举制度中，选民将选票投给个人候选人（例如，单一成员区），而不是政党（例如，封闭名单比例代表制），选民更有可能要求候选人对投票箱中的腐败负责。相反，在以政党为中心的选举制度下，选民很可能把责任推卸给政党。此外，我们预计，当取消候选人对政党来说成本相对较低时，选民对政党问责制的期望会提高。为了评估选举制度如何影响腐败背景下的问责制，我们分析了在台湾进行的一项调查实验的数据——台湾是一个采用混合成员多数制并行投票的民主国家。这种背景使我们能够在操纵选举制度的同时，保持可能影响结果的文化和政治因素。我们发现，在以候选人为中心的制度中，选民更有可能让候选人直接负责，而不管党派偏好如何。关于政党期望的结果不太确定，只有在候选人竞争力较弱的情况下，在以政党为中心的制度中对政党问责的期望。

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引用次数: 0

Do voters on the left show more solidarity behaviour? Novel behavioural evidence from interactive surveys in Austria, West and East Germany 左翼选民表现出更多的团结行为吗？来自奥地利、西德和东德互动调查的新行为证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102980

Achim Goerres, Jakob Eicheler

Voters on the left typically demand more public redistribution than those on the right. While existing research has demonstrated differences in social behaviour by political ideology, we know little on whether left voters are willing to show more costly solidarity towards others. In this study, we test pre-registered hypotheses on whether the MARPOR left-right score of voters’ preferred party and left-right self-placement predict more solidarity behaviour. We introduce a novel Extended Solidarity Game to measure costly solidarity behaviour as contributions to compensate for income losses of others in randomly assigned groups. The behavioural instrument allows for simultaneous group interactions and was embedded in online surveys in the party system contexts of Austria, West and East Germany. We find evidence for the predicted ideological differences in solidarity: while the MARPOR left-right score shows only a non-significant effect in the expected direction, left-right self-placement (as well as the CHES scores) show a strong, robust and significant effect. The strength of this relationship is highly context-dependent: in Austria and West Germany, predicted contributions of leftmost participants are about 8 percentage points higher than those of rightmost participants. In East Germany, this predicted difference amounts to about 30 percentage points. Additional analyses rule out differences in social trust, economic or cultural political orientations as alternative explanations for the context-dependency of the effect. We argue that the East German party system – characterised by clearer programmatic party differences and more intense party competition – leads voters to define their ideological position more clearly and increases the behavioural relevance of political ideology.

左派选民通常比右派选民要求更多的公共再分配。虽然现有的研究已经证明了政治意识形态在社会行为上的差异，但我们对左翼选民是否愿意对他人表现出更昂贵的团结却知之甚少。在这项研究中，我们检验了预先登记的假设，即选民首选政党的MARPOR左右得分和左右自我定位是否能预测更多的团结行为。我们引入了一种新颖的扩展团结博弈来衡量代价高昂的团结行为，作为补偿随机分配群体中其他人收入损失的贡献。行为工具允许同时进行群体互动，并嵌入在奥地利，西德和东德政党制度背景下的在线调查中。我们发现了预测的意识形态团结差异的证据：尽管MARPOR左右得分在预期方向上仅显示出不显著的影响，但左右自我定位（以及CHES得分）显示出强烈、稳健和显著的影响。这种关系的强度是高度依赖于环境的：在奥地利和西德，最左边的参与者的预测贡献比最右边的参与者高8个百分点。在东德，这一预测差异约为30个百分点。额外的分析排除了社会信任、经济或文化政治取向的差异作为影响的背景依赖性的替代解释。我们认为，东德政党制度的特点是更明确的政党纲领差异和更激烈的政党竞争，这导致选民更清楚地定义他们的意识形态立场，并增加了政治意识形态的行为相关性。

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引用次数: 0