Electoral Studies最新文献

英文中文

Relative out-party hostility and its consequences in multiparty democracies 相对的党外敌意及其在多党民主中的后果

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102924

Melek Hilal Eroglu

How extensive and intense is out-party hostility in contemporary multiparty democracies, and what are its consequences for democratic attitudes, political engagement, and voting behavior? While previous studies have highlighted increasing trends in such hostility, existing measures of the concept fall short in three key respects: they fail to account for the breadth and intensity of hostility in multiparty systems, they do not offer a singular measure for overall hostility, and they do not account for the relative prevalence of negative versus positive party affect. This paper introduces a new measure, ‘Relative Hostility’ to overcome these limitations. Using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) across 48 multiparty democracies, this study compares the effects of ‘Relative Hostility’ with those of existing measures of out-party hostility and Affective Polarization on democratic attitudes, support for extremism, and political participation. The findings demonstrate that ‘Relative Hostility’ more accurately explains the adverse effects on democracies, such as increased dissatisfaction with democracy and support for extremist parties. These findings underscore the urgent need for developing strategies that mitigate out-party hostility to bolster democratic resilience.

在当代多党制民主国家中，党外敌意有多广泛和强烈？它对民主态度、政治参与和投票行为有何影响？虽然以前的研究强调了这种敌意的增加趋势，但现有的这一概念的措施在三个关键方面存在不足：它们未能说明多党制中敌意的广度和强度，它们没有提供总体敌意的单一衡量标准，它们没有说明消极与积极政党影响的相对普遍性。本文引入了一种新的度量，“相对敌意”来克服这些限制。利用48个多党制民主国家选举制度比较研究（CSES）的数据，本研究比较了“相对敌意”与现有的党外敌意和情感两极分化对民主态度、极端主义支持和政治参与的影响。研究结果表明，“相对敌意”更准确地解释了对民主的负面影响，比如对民主的不满和对极端政党的支持。这些发现强调，迫切需要制定策略，减轻党外敌意，以增强民主的韧性。

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引用次数: 0

Linking individual electoral performance to the composition of elected bodies: A counterfactual-based approach 将个人选举表现与选举机构的组成联系起来：一种反事实的方法

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102925

Oliver Huwyler

This research note presents a counterfactual-based approach to assessing the impact of candidates’ personal vote-earning attributes and list properties on the composition of bodies elected under open and semi-open list proportional representation systems. Previous research has focused heavily on individual electoral performance, overlooking the broader implications for descriptive representation. By identifying counterfactual electees and juxtaposing their numbers with those of factual electees, the proposed approach provides intuitive metrics of how specific factors alter the composition of elected bodies. Applied to the 2023 regional parliament election of Lucerne, Switzerland, the results suggest that the effect sizes identified in regression analyses of electoral performance do not always correspond to how strongly the respective variables subsequently influence the composition of elected bodies. The counterfactual-based approach thus provides valuable insights into the electoral consequences of candidate and list characteristics, and their role in shaping descriptive representation.

本研究报告提出了一种基于反事实的方法来评估候选人的个人得票属性和名单属性对开放和半开放名单比例代表制下当选机构组成的影响。以前的研究主要集中在个人选举表现上，忽视了描述性代表性的更广泛含义。通过识别非事实被选者，并将其人数与事实被选者的人数并列，拟议的方法提供了具体因素如何改变当选机构组成的直观指标。应用于2023年瑞士卢塞恩地区议会选举，结果表明，在选举表现的回归分析中确定的效应大小并不总是对应于各自变量随后对当选机构组成的影响程度。因此，基于反事实的方法为候选人和名单特征的选举结果及其在塑造描述性表征中的作用提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

The Swedish historical municipal council database 瑞典历史市政委员会数据库

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102921

Abrar Bawati , Moa Frödin Gruneau , Josefine Magnusson , Johanna Rickne

Local political assemblies often perform essential political and governing functions. We introduce the Swedish Municipal Council Database (SMCD), which contains information on municipal council size and the number of elected councilors by gender and party family over a period of 100 years (1919–2018). We describe how this new database enables novel analysis of the development of democracy.

地方政治集会经常履行重要的政治和治理职能。我们介绍瑞典市议会数据库（SMCD），其中包含100年来（1919年至2018年）按性别和政党家庭划分的市议会规模和当选议员人数的信息。我们描述了这个新的数据库如何能够对民主的发展进行新颖的分析。

引用次数: 0

Turning up and down the partisan heat. Voters’ psychological profile and changes in negative radical partisanship over the course of an election 让党派之争起起落落。在选举过程中，选民的心理状况和消极激进党派关系的变化

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102926

Alessandro Nai, Patrick F.A. van Erkel, Linda Bos

Who is more likely to get “heated up” against their political rivals during the course of the campaign, as election day draws near? And for whom is such aggressive stance more likely to “cool down” in the aftermath of the election? Leveraging novel evidence from a four-wave longitudinal survey fielded in the weeks leading to – and the aftermath of – the Dutch national elections of November 2023 (N = 5500 in wave 1, N = 1770 in wave 4), we test for the predictors of changes in negative radical partisanship (NRP) in voters. We measure NRP via four independent indicators – support for political violence, partisan Schadenfreude, moral disengagement, and social distance – and investigate the extent to which the psychological profile of respondents affects whether they “heat up” and “cool down” their radical stance during the course of the election. Results suggest that expressive partisanship and need for chaos highly relate to upsurges of negative radical partisanship in the build-up to elections, while at the same time hampering any post-election cooling down. The dark personality profile of respondents and populist attitudes seem to relate only marginally to (de)radicalization. Data and codes are openly available for replication.

随着选举日的临近，在竞选过程中，谁更有可能对自己的政治对手“热血沸腾”？对于谁来说，这种咄咄逼人的姿态更有可能在大选后“冷静下来”？利用在2023年11月荷兰全国大选之前和之后几周进行的四波纵向调查的新证据（第一波N = 5500，第四波N = 1770），我们测试了选民中消极激进党派关系（NRP）变化的预测因素。我们通过四个独立的指标来衡量NRP——对政治暴力的支持、党派幸灾乐祸、道德脱离和社会距离——并调查受访者的心理状况在多大程度上影响他们在选举过程中是否“升温”或“降温”他们的激进立场。结果表明，表达性党派之争和对混乱的需求与选举前负面激进党派之争的高涨高度相关，同时阻碍了选举后的任何降温。受访者的黑暗性格特征和民粹主义态度似乎与（去）激进化只有很小的关系。数据和代码可以公开复制。

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引用次数: 0

Partisan and non-partisan conspiracy theories’ diverging effects on political participation 党派与非党派阴谋论对政治参与的差异效应

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102920

Mert Can Bayar

What role do conspiracy theories play in mobilizing political action? Both historical and contemporary accounts have written on the role of conspiracy theories (CTs) in mobilizing various movements, including during the process of nation-building, regime consolidation, and in challenges to liberal democracy in more recent years. In contrast, recent empirical research suggests that beliefs in CTs might reduce participation in politics. However, both research genres have only analyzed a limited number of CTs. This article explores how belief in different CTs affects people’s likelihood to participate in politics, particularly in relation to partisan narratives. Using two surveys conducted in the United States (n=1200) and Turkey (n=1500) -two cases that approximate a most different system design-, it finds that beliefs in partisan CTs encourage citizens to participate in politics while the effect of beliefs in non-partisan CTs on political participation varies depending on the individual’s political affiliation.

阴谋论在动员政治行动中扮演什么角色？历史和当代都有关于阴谋论（CTs）在动员各种运动中的作用的报道，包括在国家建设、政权巩固的过程中，以及近年来对自由民主的挑战。相比之下，最近的实证研究表明，对ct的信仰可能会减少政治参与。然而，这两种研究类型都只分析了有限数量的ct。本文探讨了对不同ct的信仰如何影响人们参与政治的可能性，特别是在党派叙事方面。通过在美国（n=1200）和土耳其（n=1500）进行的两项调查（这两个案例近似于最不同的系统设计），研究发现，对党派ct的信仰鼓励公民参与政治，而对无党派ct的信仰对政治参与的影响因个人的政治派别而异。

引用次数: 0

To moderate, or not to moderate: Strategic domain sharing by congressional campaigns 缓和，还是不缓和：国会竞选的战略领域共享

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102907

Maggie Macdonald , Megan A. Brown , Joshua A. Tucker , Jonathan Nagler

We test whether candidates move to the extremes before a primary but then return to the center for the general election to appeal to the different preferences of each electorate. Incumbents are now more vulnerable to primary challenges than ever as social media offers a viable pathway for fundraising and messaging for challengers, while homogeneity of districts has reduced general election competitiveness. To assess candidates’ ideological trajectories, we estimate the messaging ideology of 2020 congressional campaigns before and after their primaries using a homophily-based measure of domains shared on Twitter. This method provides temporally granular data to observe changes in communication within a single election campaign cycle. We find suggestive evidence that incumbents in safe seats moved towards the extreme before their primaries and back towards the center for the general election, but only when threatened by a well-funded primary challenge.

我们测试候选人是否在初选前走向极端，但在大选时又回到中间，以吸引每个选民的不同偏好。在职者现在比以往任何时候都更容易受到初选挑战，因为社交媒体为挑战者提供了筹款和传递信息的可行途径，而地区的同质化降低了大选的竞争力。为了评估候选人的意识形态轨迹，我们使用基于Twitter上共享域的同质性度量来估计2020年国会竞选活动在初选前后的信息传递意识形态。这种方法提供了时间粒度数据来观察单个竞选周期内通信的变化。我们发现，有证据表明，安全席位的现任者在初选前走向极端，在大选时又回到中间，但只有在受到资金充足的初选挑战的威胁时才会如此。

引用次数: 0

Electoral systems and assembly size 选举制度和议会规模

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102922

Simon Otjes

The cube-root rules of assembly size is one of the strongest relationships in political science. Its theoretical underpinning is given by Taagepera (1972). It is based on the notion that assembly size is optimal when the number of communication channels between representatives among themselves and between citizens and their representative is minimal. This article argues that if one follows the logic of the cube-root rule, proportional electoral systems should be associated with greater assemblies: in that case citizens can communicate with more than one representative. This additional links will result in larger assemblies. This article tests this in 128 national parliaments or lower houses. It finds strong evidence for the importance of electoral systems for assembly size.

议会规模的立方根规则是政治科学中最重要的关系之一。Taagepera（1972）给出了它的理论基础。它的基础是，当代表之间以及公民与代表之间的沟通渠道数量最少时，集会规模是最佳的。本文认为，如果一个人遵循立方根法则的逻辑，比例选举制度应该与更大的议会联系在一起：在这种情况下，公民可以与不止一个代表交流。这些额外的链接将导致更大的程序集。这篇文章在128个国家的议会或下议院进行了测试。它发现了选举制度对议会规模的重要性的有力证据。

引用次数: 0

Measuring rural and urban consciousness in Europe 衡量欧洲农村和城市意识

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102912

Christopher Claassen , Sascha Göbel , Antonia Lang , Kathrin Ackermann , Petar Bankov , Kevin Brookes , Bartolomeo Cappellina , Christopher Carman , Markus Freitag , Rubén García Del Horno , Enrique Hernández , Guillem Rico , Sigrid Rossteutscher , Richard Traunmüller , Michael Webb , Sonja Zmerli , Alina Zumbrunn

A rural consciousness, encompassing a rural identity and resentments directed at urban areas and the political elite, has emerged as a key explanation for the growing rural–urban political divides affecting many Western democracies. However, existing research has largely focused on the case of the United States; there is also no consensus as to the structure or dimensionality of rural (and urban) consciousness. In response, this paper develops and tests a battery of 16 items for measuring consciousness in five Western European countries: Britain, France, Germany, Spain, and Switzerland. We show that both rural and urban consciousness are best understood as comprising a dimension of identity and three dimensions of resentment pertaining to power, resources, and culture, in line with Cramer’s original conceptualization. We furthermore find that rural consciousness in Western Europe is generally associated with indicators of “left behind” status such as low income and lack of a university education and is also associated with identification with the political right. This shows how rural–urban identities and resentments can help illuminate the changing political landscape of Western Europe.

农村意识，包括农村身份和对城市地区和政治精英的怨恨，已经成为影响许多西方民主国家的日益严重的城乡政治分歧的关键解释。然而，现有的研究主要集中在美国的案例上；关于农村（和城市）意识的结构或维度也没有共识。为此，本文在英国、法国、德国、西班牙、瑞士等5个西欧国家开发并测试了一套包含16项的意识测量项目。我们表明，农村和城市意识最好被理解为包括一个维度的身份和三个维度的怨恨有关权力，资源和文化，与克拉默的原始概念一致。我们进一步发现，西欧的农村意识通常与低收入和缺乏大学教育等“落后”地位的指标有关，也与政治权利的认同有关。这表明城乡身份和怨恨如何有助于阐明西欧不断变化的政治格局。

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引用次数: 0

The strategic dilemma of social democracy: Lessons from Slovakia 社会民主主义的战略困境：斯洛伐克的教训

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102911

Roman Hlatky , Oľga Gyárfášová

The declining fortunes of European social democracy have been the subject of much attention. A contested explanation for how to remedy the decline concerns whether conservative shifts on sociocultural and transnational issues are helpful or harmful at the ballot box. In contrast, we focus on an underexplored adaptation strategy: the split of social democracy along the sociocultural cleavage. We analyze the Slovak case where a successful, dominant social democratic party, Smer-SD, divided. One part of the divide took radical, conservative stances on sociocultural and geopolitical issues, while the other part adopted moderate positions. Analyzing over 30 public opinion polls, we show that the split and the parties’ subsequent ideological differentiation led to electoral success. Radicalization attracted conservative former radical-right voters; moderation ensured the support of the more liberal middle class. Situating Slovakia in the wider European context, we: (1) suggest that the salience of the sociocultural cleavage has strengthened the appeal of a nationalist left programmatic direction in Central and Eastern Europe; (2) explore why moderate social democracy succeeded in Slovakia but failed elsewhere; and (3) confirm previous findings on the importance of strong leadership and a large membership base for splinter party success, and on voter responsiveness to parties' ideological and programmatic shifts. More generally, the Slovak case illustrates that party splits are both a consequence of and a potentially effective response to the strategic dilemma of social democracy.

欧洲社会民主主义的衰落一直备受关注。对于如何弥补这种衰退，一个有争议的解释是，在社会文化和跨国问题上的保守转变对选举有利还是有害。相比之下，我们关注的是一种未被充分探索的适应策略：社会民主主义沿着社会文化分裂而分裂。我们分析了斯洛伐克的案例，一个成功的、占主导地位的社会民主党Smer-SD分裂了。其中一部分人在社会文化和地缘政治问题上采取激进、保守的立场，而另一部分人则采取温和的立场。通过对30多个民意调查的分析，我们发现分裂和两党随后的意识形态分化导致了选举的成功。激进化吸引了保守的前极右翼选民；温和确保了更自由的中产阶级的支持。将斯洛伐克置于更广泛的欧洲背景下，我们：(1)认为社会文化分裂的显著性加强了中欧和东欧民族主义左翼纲领方向的吸引力；(2)探讨为什么温和的社会民主主义在斯洛伐克成功而在其他地方失败；(3)证实先前的研究结果，即强大的领导和庞大的党员基础对分裂政党的成功的重要性，以及选民对政党意识形态和纲领转变的反应。更普遍地说，斯洛伐克的例子表明，政党分裂既是社会民主战略困境的结果，也是对这种困境的潜在有效回应。

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The poles in polarization: Social categorization and affective polarization in multiparty systems 极化的两极：多党制下的社会分类与情感极化

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102908

Adrian Rothers

A challenge in adapting the concept of affective polarization to multiparty systems has been to determine who is polarized against whom. I propose a strategy to uncover the different ways in which people construe the political field – that is, how they categorize the party landscape in terms of “us” and “them” from commonly-used survey data. Using 2023 panel data from Germany, a multiparty democracy, I show that people are polarized in opposing camps along three different divides: between Left and Right, between Mainstream and Rightwing Populists, and between Center and Extreme. To understand what people are polarized over, I explore the issue differences that underpin each of the divides. Lastly, I examine the associations between affective polarization and democratic attitudes across camps and find considerable variation in those associations. This variation suggests that perhaps not all affective polarization should be seen as equally problematic.

使情感两极化概念适应多党制的一个挑战是确定谁对谁两极化。我提出了一种策略来揭示人们解释政治领域的不同方式——也就是说，他们如何从常用的调查数据中根据“我们”和“他们”对政党格局进行分类。我利用多党制民主国家德国的2023年面板数据表明，人们在三个不同的阵营中两极分化：左翼和右翼、主流和右翼民粹主义者、中间和极端。为了理解人们在什么方面出现了两极分化，我探讨了支撑每种分歧的问题差异。最后，我研究了情感两极分化与各阵营民主态度之间的联系，并发现这些联系存在相当大的差异。这种差异表明，也许并不是所有的情感两极分化都应该被视为同样的问题。

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