Electoral Studies最新文献

英文中文

Not just who, but how: Further probing the connection between primary election dissatisfaction and general election voting behavior 不只是谁，而是如何：进一步探讨初选不满与大选投票行为之间的联系

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102969

Elizabeth N. Simas , Lucas Lothamer

How does divided primary support impact parties and their candidates come the general election? Existing works fail to offer a clear consensus, with some finding evidence of “sour grapes” and defection and others finding that voters ultimately come home to their party. We offer a more recent examination of how support for a losing primary candidate is related to general election voting behavior. In addition, we also hypothesize that dissatisfaction with aspects of how nominating contests are conducted will be related to greater probabilities of defection or abstention. Using original data from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES), we find only mixed evidence that dissatisfaction with Joe Biden lead to a greater probability of defecting to Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. More consistently, we find that dissatisfaction with the process that led to Biden's nomination – especially dislike of the roles of Iowa and New Hampshire -- is associated with defection. These findings suggest that parties should think about both the people running and process by which they are nominated if hoping to maximize general election support among their members.

分裂的初选支持率如何影响政党及其候选人进入大选？现有的研究未能提供一个明确的共识，一些人发现了“酸葡萄”和叛逃的证据，另一些人发现选民最终回到了他们的政党。我们提供了一个更近期的检查如何支持一个失败的初选候选人与大选投票行为有关。此外，我们还假设，对提名竞赛进行方式方面的不满将与更大的叛逃或弃权概率有关。利用2020年合作选举研究（CES）的原始数据，我们发现只有混合证据表明，对乔·拜登的不满导致在2020年大选中投奔唐纳德·特朗普的可能性更大。更一致的是，我们发现，对导致拜登获得提名的过程的不满——尤其是对爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州所扮演角色的不满——与叛逃有关。这些发现表明，如果政党希望最大限度地提高其成员在大选中的支持率，就应该考虑候选人和提名过程。

{"title":"Not just who, but how: Further probing the connection between primary election dissatisfaction and general election voting behavior","authors":"Elizabeth N. Simas , Lucas Lothamer","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does divided primary support impact parties and their candidates come the general election? Existing works fail to offer a clear consensus, with some finding evidence of “sour grapes” and defection and others finding that voters ultimately come home to their party. We offer a more recent examination of how support for a losing primary candidate is related to general election voting behavior. In addition, we also hypothesize that dissatisfaction with aspects of how nominating contests are conducted will be related to greater probabilities of defection or abstention. Using original data from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES), we find only mixed evidence that dissatisfaction with Joe Biden lead to a greater probability of defecting to Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. More consistently, we find that dissatisfaction with the process that led to Biden's nomination – especially dislike of the roles of Iowa and New Hampshire -- is associated with defection. These findings suggest that parties should think about both the people running and process by which they are nominated if hoping to maximize general election support among their members.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102969"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD): A new dataset of national election dates 选举时间跨越专制和民主（ETAD）：全国选举日期的新数据集

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102964

Masaaki Higashijima , Naoki Shimizu , Hidekuni Washida , Yuki Yanai

We introduce the Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD) dataset, which provides comprehensive data on the timing of the national elections in autocracies and democracies between 1945 and 2023. ETAD covers 3,127 legislative and presidential elections in 148 countries. Various research agendas have targeted election timing, but no global dataset measuring precise timing has been available. ETAD provides scholars with detailed information on election timing, including which date an election was held, how many days an election was accelerated or delayed from the initially scheduled date, and why the election timing was changed. ETAD has three distinct features. First, it covers legislative and presidential elections in both autocracies and democracies. Second, it records dates, which allows researchers to operationalize early or delayed elections following their specific purposes. Third, it identifies the major reasons for timing changes, helping us better understand governments’ strategies of changing election timing. ETAD improves our understanding of electoral behavior, institutional constraints, and regime dynamics by bridging gaps in existing research and enabling nuanced analyses. To demonstrate that, we present a research example about opportunistic election timing. The ETAD dataset and its codebook can be downloaded from the author’s website or installed as an R package.

我们介绍了专制和民主国家的选举时间（ETAD）数据集，它提供了1945年至2023年间专制和民主国家全国选举时间的综合数据。ETAD涵盖了148个国家的3127个立法和总统选举。各种各样的研究议程都针对选举时间，但没有全球数据集可以测量精确的时间。ETAD为学者提供了选举时间的详细信息，包括选举举行的日期，选举从最初计划的日期提前或推迟了多少天，以及选举时间改变的原因。ETAD有三个明显的特点。首先，它涵盖了专制国家和民主国家的立法和总统选举。其次，它记录了日期，这使得研究人员能够根据他们的特定目的提前或推迟选举。第三，它确定了时间变化的主要原因，帮助我们更好地理解政府改变选举时间的策略。ETAD通过弥合现有研究中的差距和进行细致入微的分析，提高了我们对选举行为、制度约束和政权动态的理解。为了证明这一点，我们提出了一个关于机会主义选举时机的研究实例。ETAD数据集及其代码本可以从作者的网站下载或作为R包安装。

{"title":"Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD): A new dataset of national election dates","authors":"Masaaki Higashijima , Naoki Shimizu , Hidekuni Washida , Yuki Yanai","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce the Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD) dataset, which provides comprehensive data on the timing of the national elections in autocracies and democracies between 1945 and 2023. ETAD covers 3,127 legislative and presidential elections in 148 countries. Various research agendas have targeted election timing, but no global dataset measuring precise timing has been available. ETAD provides scholars with detailed information on election timing, including which date an election was held, how many days an election was accelerated or delayed from the initially scheduled date, and why the election timing was changed. ETAD has three distinct features. First, it covers legislative and presidential elections in both autocracies and democracies. Second, it records dates, which allows researchers to operationalize early or delayed elections following their specific purposes. Third, it identifies the major reasons for timing changes, helping us better understand governments’ strategies of changing election timing. ETAD improves our understanding of electoral behavior, institutional constraints, and regime dynamics by bridging gaps in existing research and enabling nuanced analyses. To demonstrate that, we present a research example about opportunistic election timing. The ETAD dataset and its codebook can be downloaded from the author’s website or installed as an R package.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102964"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144712026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How nuclear power hurts the Greens: Evidence from German nuclear power plants 核能是如何伤害绿党的：来自德国核电站的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102959

António Valentim , Heike Klüver , Cornelius Erfort

What are the electoral consequences of nuclear energy for Green parties? Despite the centrality of nuclear opposition to Green party platforms, and the social movements that helped them emerge, little research has examined the electoral impact of this stance. Building on work on energy transitions and local political economy, we propose that the economic benefits of nuclear power can mitigate local public opposition to such otherwise unpopular energy policies. We test this by analyzing the effect of nuclear power plants on electoral support for the German Greens, one of the most vocal opponents of nuclear energy. Using a novel dataset that combines the geolocation of nuclear plants with voting records since the 1980s, and employing difference-in-differences and instrumental variable designs, we find that the opening of nuclear plants correlates with a decrease in Green party vote share. These findings are relevant for understanding Green parties, energy transitions, and unpopular policies.

核能对绿党的选举有什么影响？尽管对绿党纲领的核心反对，以及帮助他们出现的社会运动处于中心地位，但很少有研究调查这种立场对选举的影响。基于对能源转型和地方政治经济的研究，我们提出核电的经济效益可以缓解当地公众对此类不受欢迎的能源政策的反对。我们通过分析核电站对德国绿党选举支持率的影响来检验这一点，德国绿党是核能最直言不讳的反对者之一。利用一个新的数据集，将核电站的地理位置与20世纪80年代以来的投票记录结合起来，并采用差异中的差异和工具变量设计，我们发现核电站的开放与绿党投票份额的下降相关。这些发现有助于理解绿党、能源转型和不受欢迎的政策。

引用次数: 0

Do the rich ditch politics? Evidence from Sweden 富人会抛弃政治吗？来自瑞典的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102966

Anton Brännlund , Rafael Ahlskog

The world has seen a massive increase in wealth and wealth inequality over the last decades. Given the skew in policy making towards the preferences of the wealthy, this raises the question of how individual wealth affects political participation. Approaching this question empirically is complicated by the fact that random variation in wealth is rare, and many factors that can bias the estimation of the relationship between wealth and participation are difficult to measure. We address the question using a Swedish discordant identical twin design with a) register-based wealth data, b) validated election turnout for multiple elections, and c) self-reported civic participation measures. This design allows us to rule out all shared confounders, such as genetics, family background and socialization, and shared networks. We find that even though wealthy individuals descriptively vote more often, a causal effect of wealth is not detectable, and may for civic participation even be negative.

在过去的几十年里，世界见证了财富和财富不平等的大幅增加。考虑到政策制定向富人偏好倾斜，这就提出了个人财富如何影响政治参与的问题。由于财富的随机变化是罕见的，而且许多可能对财富与参与之间关系的估计产生偏差的因素是难以衡量的，因此从经验上处理这个问题是复杂的。我们使用瑞典不协调的同卵双胞胎设计来解决这个问题：a)基于登记的财富数据，b)多次选举的有效选举投票率，以及c)自我报告的公民参与措施。这种设计允许我们排除所有共同的混杂因素，如基因、家庭背景和社交，以及共享的网络。我们发现，尽管富有的个人在描述上更频繁地投票，但财富的因果效应无法检测到，甚至可能对公民参与产生负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Does prepaid postage increase voter turnout? An analysis across time and municipalities in Switzerland 预付邮资会增加选民投票率吗？瑞士不同时间和城市的分析

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102968

Pierre F.R. Lüssi, Alina Zumbrunn

Political participation is the backbone of democracy. One measure to increase voter turnout in vote-by-mail systems is prepaying postage. Previous studies investigated the effect of prepaid postage and found that it significantly increases turnout. Using an original data set covering all national direct democratic votes in 1893 Swiss municipalities from 2005 to 2023, we replicate earlier studies and investigate temporal as well as contextual variation. We find that the effect of prepaid postage on turnout is contingent upon both time and municipal characteristics: 1) postage starts to increase turnout only after three to five years. 2) Abolishing prepaid postage reverses the increase in turnout. 3) The effect is larger in municipalities with more post boxes and a greater average distance to the office of municipal authorities. The evidence from our study suggests that prepaid postage cannot be viewed as a one-size-fits-all solution.

政治参与是民主的支柱。在邮寄投票系统中提高选民投票率的一项措施是预付邮资。之前的研究调查了预付邮资的影响，发现它显著提高了投票率。使用涵盖2005年至2023年瑞士1893个自治市所有国家直接民主投票的原始数据集，我们复制了早期的研究，并调查了时间和背景差异。我们发现预付邮资对投票率的影响取决于时间和城市特征：1)邮资在三到五年后才开始增加投票率。2)取消预付邮资会逆转投票率的增长。(3)在邮箱较多、离市政机关办公室平均距离较远的城市，这种影响更大。我们研究的证据表明，预付邮资不能被视为一刀切的解决方案。

引用次数: 0

“And some, I assume, are good people”: Determinants of elites’ strategic discourse about immigrants and refugees “我想，有些人是好人”：精英们关于移民和难民的战略话语的决定因素

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102952

João V. Guedes-Neto , Alex Honeker

Using computational text analysis of US representatives’ tweets during the 2020 election campaign, we examine how geographic representation–specifically, the demographic characteristics of districts–moderate rhetoric about immigrants and refugees. While Republicans are overall more negative toward immigrants than Democrats (but not toward refugees), when it comes to salience, Democrats show strategic communication tailored to the ethnic composition of their districts. In districts that are predominantly non-Hispanic, whiter, and more rural, Democratic representatives reduce the salience of immigrants and refugees in their messages, while increasing it as the share of the Hispanic population rises. This strategic use of salience is not observed in Republican legislators’ tweets. We also find that while Democrats use the terms “immigrant” and “refugee” interchangeably when discussing migrants from the southern border, Republicans’ greater positivity toward refugees responds, in part, to using the term for potential Hong Kong refugees, likely deemed as more deserving of protection. These findings highlight elites’ strategic messaging on immigration and how legislators navigate intraparty politics to satisfy the preferences of their party and constituents.

通过对2020年大选期间美国众议员推文的计算文本分析，我们研究了地理代表性——具体来说，是地区的人口特征——如何缓和有关移民和难民的言论。虽然共和党人总体上对移民的态度比民主党人更消极（但对难民的态度并非如此），但在突出性方面，民主党人表现出了针对其选区种族构成量身定制的战略沟通。在以非西班牙裔、白人和更多农村人口为主的选区，民主党代表在他们的信息中减少了移民和难民的重要性，同时随着西班牙裔人口比例的上升而增加了移民和难民的重要性。在共和党议员的推文中，并没有看到这种策略性的突出性运用。我们还发现，虽然民主党人在讨论来自南部边境的移民时交替使用“移民”和“难民”这两个词，但共和党人对难民的更积极态度在一定程度上回应了他们将这个词用于潜在的香港难民，他们可能被认为更值得保护。这些发现突出了精英们在移民问题上的战略信息，以及立法者如何驾驭党内政治，以满足本党和选民的偏好。

{"title":"“And some, I assume, are good people”: Determinants of elites’ strategic discourse about immigrants and refugees","authors":"João V. Guedes-Neto , Alex Honeker","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using computational text analysis of US representatives’ tweets during the 2020 election campaign, we examine how geographic representation–specifically, the demographic characteristics of districts–moderate rhetoric about immigrants and refugees. While Republicans are overall more negative toward immigrants than Democrats (but not toward refugees), when it comes to salience, Democrats show strategic communication tailored to the ethnic composition of their districts. In districts that are predominantly non-Hispanic, whiter, and more rural, Democratic representatives reduce the salience of immigrants and refugees in their messages, while increasing it as the share of the Hispanic population rises. This strategic use of salience is not observed in Republican legislators’ tweets. We also find that while Democrats use the terms “immigrant” and “refugee” interchangeably when discussing migrants from the southern border, Republicans’ greater positivity toward refugees responds, in part, to using the term for potential Hong Kong refugees, likely deemed as more deserving of protection. These findings highlight elites’ strategic messaging on immigration and how legislators navigate intraparty politics to satisfy the preferences of their party and constituents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102952"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144595587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting 披着狼皮的东方。狼的袭击与极右翼投票有关，但并不导致极右翼投票

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102957

Nico Sonntag

The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior research has linked wolf attacks to a rise in support for the far-right AfD party and the corresponding decline in Green Party votes. This note challenges such conclusions, highlighting significant methodological issues in the original difference-in-differences design. The geographic clustering of wolf attacks in East Germany aligns with other pre-existing political divides, complicating causal attribution. The analysis reveals pre-treatment voting trends that predict the probability of wolf attacks. Splitting data by East and West Germany or including diverging regional trends in the regression models nullifies or reverses most previously reported effects. This study underscores the complexities of using panel data in spatially and temporally heterogeneous contexts.

狼在德国的死灰复燃引发了激烈的争论，尤其是在经常发生狼袭击牲畜的农村地区。此前的研究表明，狼袭击与极右翼德国新选择党支持率上升以及绿党选票相应下降有关。本文对这些结论提出了质疑，强调了原始差异中差异设计中的重要方法论问题。狼袭击事件在东德的地理分布与其他先前存在的政治分歧一致，使因果归因复杂化。分析揭示了预处理的投票趋势，预测了狼袭击的可能性。按东德和西德划分数据，或在回归模型中包括不同的区域趋势，可以抵消或逆转先前报道的大多数影响。这项研究强调了在空间和时间异构环境中使用面板数据的复杂性。

引用次数: 0

Populist leaders and the political budget cycle 民粹主义领导人和政治预算周期

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102965

Assaf Shmuel

The rise of populist leaders has been a notable trend in recent years, not just in developing democracies but in developed ones as well. The phenomenon has attracted wide scholarly interest, studying the effect of populist leaders on various fields of life, including the economy. This paper sheds light on an additional aspect of populist leaders' actions: their utilization of the political budget cycle (PBC). The PBC is a well-known hypothesis claiming the existence of an economic cycle which revolves around national elections, caused by leaders who manipulate the economy to create favourable conditions towards re-election. Although the existence of PBCs has been empirically established, particularly in developing democracies, its link to populism remains to be empirically explored. In this paper we claim that populist leaders make an increased use of the PBC in comparison to other leaders. We substantiate this hypothesis through a comprehensive statistical analysis utilizing a recently released dataset encompassing decades of populist leaders. Our findings reveal robust empirical support for the hypothesis. We find that populist leaders play a major role in driving political budget cycles across different democratic systems, with particularly strong effects in weaker democracies. These findings carry significant implications given the rising prevalence of populist leaders.

近年来，民粹主义领导人的崛起是一个引人注目的趋势，不仅在发展中民主国家，在发达国家也是如此。这一现象引起了广泛的学术兴趣，研究民粹主义领导人对包括经济在内的各个生活领域的影响。本文揭示了民粹主义领导人行动的另一个方面：他们对政治预算周期（PBC）的利用。PBC是一个众所周知的假设，它声称存在一个围绕全国选举的经济周期，这是由领导人操纵经济为连任创造有利条件造成的。虽然PBCs的存在已被实证证实，特别是在发展中民主国家，但其与民粹主义的联系仍有待实证探讨。在本文中，我们认为与其他领导人相比，民粹主义领导人更多地使用PBC。我们利用最近发布的包含数十年民粹主义领导人的数据集，通过全面的统计分析来证实这一假设。我们的研究结果为这一假设提供了强有力的实证支持。我们发现，民粹主义领导人在推动不同民主制度的政治预算周期方面发挥着重要作用，对较弱的民主国家的影响尤其强烈。鉴于民粹主义领导人日益盛行，这些发现具有重要意义。

{"title":"Populist leaders and the political budget cycle","authors":"Assaf Shmuel","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rise of populist leaders has been a notable trend in recent years, not just in developing democracies but in developed ones as well. The phenomenon has attracted wide scholarly interest, studying the effect of populist leaders on various fields of life, including the economy. This paper sheds light on an additional aspect of populist leaders' actions: their utilization of the political budget cycle (PBC). The PBC is a well-known hypothesis claiming the existence of an economic cycle which revolves around national elections, caused by leaders who manipulate the economy to create favourable conditions towards re-election. Although the existence of PBCs has been empirically established, particularly in developing democracies, its link to populism remains to be empirically explored. In this paper we claim that populist leaders make an increased use of the PBC in comparison to other leaders. We substantiate this hypothesis through a comprehensive statistical analysis utilizing a recently released dataset encompassing decades of populist leaders. Our findings reveal robust empirical support for the hypothesis. We find that populist leaders play a major role in driving political budget cycles across different democratic systems, with particularly strong effects in weaker democracies. These findings carry significant implications given the rising prevalence of populist leaders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102965"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The urban-rural cleavage: Analysing more than 40 years of Norwegian survey data 城乡分化：分析挪威40多年的调查数据

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102954

Stine Hesstvedt, Jo Saglie

In recent years, the political divide between urban and rural dwellers seems to have increased. Current literature has described the rise of a green, progressive and left-leaning urban electorate and a nationalist and conservative rural population. However, research usually lacks historical data on these developments outside of majoritarian systems. We provide new insights into the urban-rural divide's evolution in a European multi-party welfare state by analysing more than four decades of data from Norway and asking: How has the urban-rural divide over political issues evolved from a long-term perspective? Using unique election survey data, we analyse how both attitudes and most important issues among rural and urban voters in Norway have changed between 1977 and 2021. We also assess whether urban-rural differences are driven by sociodemographic change. Our results indicate both stability and change. On one hand, we find attitude polarisation in Norway on some issues: Divisions over environmental policy have increased, as the urban population displays more progressive attitudes than rural citizens over time. Rural citizens have become more concerned with centre and periphery issues. However, in other areas, we find stability and a relatively low degree of polarisation. For example, the rural population in Norway has become more similar to urban citizens regarding moral and religious issues. Furthermore, rural citizens have not become more right-leaning on economic questions, which has been a finding in more adversarial systems.

近年来，城乡居民之间的政治分歧似乎有所扩大。当前的文献描述了绿色、进步和左倾的城市选民和民族主义和保守的农村人口的崛起。然而，研究通常缺乏多数主义制度之外这些发展的历史数据。我们通过分析挪威40多年的数据，为欧洲多党制福利国家的城乡差距演变提供了新的见解，并提出了以下问题：从长期来看，城乡在政治问题上的差距是如何演变的？利用独特的选举调查数据，我们分析了1977年至2021年间挪威农村和城市选民的态度和最重要的问题是如何变化的。我们还评估了城乡差异是否由社会人口变化驱动。我们的结果既表明了稳定性，也表明了变化性。一方面，我们发现挪威在一些问题上的态度两极分化：随着时间的推移，城市人口比农村居民表现出更进步的态度，环境政策的分歧有所增加。农村居民越来越关心中心和外围问题。然而，在其他领域，我们发现稳定和相对较低的两极分化程度。例如，挪威的农村人口在道德和宗教问题上与城市居民越来越相似。此外，农村居民在经济问题上并没有变得更加右倾，这是在更具对抗性的体制中发现的。

{"title":"The urban-rural cleavage: Analysing more than 40 years of Norwegian survey data","authors":"Stine Hesstvedt, Jo Saglie","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the political divide between urban and rural dwellers seems to have increased. Current literature has described the rise of a green, progressive and left-leaning urban electorate and a nationalist and conservative rural population. However, research usually lacks historical data on these developments outside of majoritarian systems. We provide new insights into the urban-rural divide's evolution in a European multi-party welfare state by analysing more than four decades of data from Norway and asking: How has the urban-rural divide over political issues evolved from a long-term perspective? Using unique election survey data, we analyse how both attitudes and most important issues among rural and urban voters in Norway have changed between 1977 and 2021. We also assess whether urban-rural differences are driven by sociodemographic change. Our results indicate both stability and change. On one hand, we find attitude polarisation in Norway on some issues: Divisions over environmental policy have increased, as the urban population displays more progressive attitudes than rural citizens over time. Rural citizens have become more concerned with centre and periphery issues. However, in other areas, we find stability and a relatively low degree of polarisation. For example, the rural population in Norway has become more similar to urban citizens regarding moral and religious issues. Furthermore, rural citizens have not become more right-leaning on economic questions, which has been a finding in more adversarial systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102954"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144548771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unpacking the rural–urban divide: Identities and stereotypes 解开城乡鸿沟：身份和刻板印象

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102935

Sofia Breitenstein , Toni Rodon , Guillem Riambau , Andreu Rodilla

The resurgence of the rural–urban divide as a factor shaping political attitudes has gained increasing attention in both public and academic discourse. Although often framed in terms of social identities, less is known about whether people actually express rural or urban identities in their own terms. This study investigates whether rural and urban identities exist independently of other identities such as class or ideology, and how they shape perceptions of in-groups and out-groups. Drawing on open-ended survey responses from a representative sample in Spain – a context where the rural–urban divide has gained political relevance – we use a novel text analysis approach to examine how individuals describe the groups they identify with. Findings show that rural–urban identities surface only marginally without explicit prompting, while identities tied to age, ideology, and education are more salient. When primed, some stereotypical traits emerge: rural communities are associated with nature and a relaxed lifestyle, while urban ones are linked to stress and individualism. A more uniform and stereotyped view of rural areas also appears across both rural and urban respondents.

城乡差距作为影响政治态度的一个因素的重新出现，在公共和学术话语中都得到了越来越多的关注。尽管人们通常以社会身份为框架，但人们是否真正以自己的方式表达农村或城市身份却鲜为人知。这项研究调查了农村和城市身份是否独立于阶级或意识形态等其他身份存在，以及它们如何塑造对群体内和群体外的看法。根据西班牙一个代表性样本的开放式调查回应——在这个背景下，城乡差距已经获得了政治相关性——我们使用一种新颖的文本分析方法来研究个人如何描述他们所认同的群体。研究结果显示，在没有明确提示的情况下，城乡身份认同只会略微出现，而与年龄、意识形态和教育相关的身份认同则更为突出。当被启动时，一些刻板的特征出现了：农村社区与自然和轻松的生活方式有关，而城市社区与压力和个人主义有关。农村和城市受访者对农村地区的看法也更为统一和刻板。

{"title":"Unpacking the rural–urban divide: Identities and stereotypes","authors":"Sofia Breitenstein , Toni Rodon , Guillem Riambau , Andreu Rodilla","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resurgence of the rural–urban divide as a factor shaping political attitudes has gained increasing attention in both public and academic discourse. Although often framed in terms of social identities, less is known about whether people actually express rural or urban identities in their own terms. This study investigates whether rural and urban identities exist independently of other identities such as class or ideology, and how they shape perceptions of in-groups and out-groups. Drawing on open-ended survey responses from a representative sample in Spain – a context where the rural–urban divide has gained political relevance – we use a novel text analysis approach to examine how individuals describe the groups they identify with. Findings show that rural–urban identities surface only marginally without explicit prompting, while identities tied to age, ideology, and education are more salient. When primed, some stereotypical traits emerge: rural communities are associated with nature and a relaxed lifestyle, while urban ones are linked to stress and individualism. A more uniform and stereotyped view of rural areas also appears across both rural and urban respondents.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48188,"journal":{"name":"Electoral Studies","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102935"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Electoral Studies

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀