Electoral Studies最新文献

This study investigates the localistic behavior of legislators elected under open-list proportional representation (OLPR), focusing on the impacts of district magnitude, intra-party competition, electorate size, and the presence of a national tier. We examine the Ecuadorian case, where institutional reformers implemented a national tier to offset the parochial tendencies of lower-tier provincial legislators yet retained OLPR for both tiers. Our study, which analyzes a 12-year dataset of congressional speeches, challenges the expectation that national-tier members are less localistic than their provincial counterparts and shows that electoral incentives drive legislators’ geographical focus. Contrary to conventional expectations, we find no evidence that increased intra-party competition is associated with more localistic behavior. However, there is consistent support for the hypothesis that smaller electoral constituencies amplify localistic behavior.

British parties – and their candidates – frequently engage in the use of negative messaging. While previous studies shed light on the frequency and source of such messages, we know less about how negative messages are received. In this research note, we present the results of a pilot survey designed investigate perceptions of the different types of messages that political elites use to discuss their opponents. Our preliminary results suggest that there is significant variation in the perceived negativity of messages, with messages referencing specific individuals being more likely to be perceived to be negative.

This paper investigates the relationship between income inequality and voting by utilizing exceptionally granular data that offer novel insights into local disparities. Existing research documents a larger turnout gap between rich and poor in areas characterized by high income inequality, causing concerns about further underrepresentation for low-income individuals and a larger democratic deficit. While previous studies have focused on inequality at higher aggregation levels, this paper advances the field by employing administrative data with complete income and validated voting records measuring inequality for neighborhoods hosting 1212 residents on average. The longitudinal setup allows rigorous modeling following the same individual in the same context over time. The results suggest that living in a neighborhood where the income difference between rich and poor becomes more pronounced discourages participation in national elections among low-income voters while it boosts participation among the rich, further accentuating the class-based inequality in political voice.

Attitudes toward and about democracy have shown a decline in the United States and elsewhere. Further, there have been clear indications that some elected officials are increasingly willing to forego longstanding traditions and norms. A key question is whether the public is influencing such elite behavior, or if certain segments are merely tolerating it. In other words, is an increase in partisan differentiation observed in attitudes toward democracy? If the behavior of Republican elected officials in the aftermath of the 2020 election was driven in part by constituent demands, we ought to see partisan polarization of attitudes about democracy prior to January 2021. In this note we trace attitudes about democracy, conditioned on partisanship, to examine the extent that such attitudes have polarized in recent decades, using data from the American National Election Studies, General Social Survey, and World Values Survey from 1996–2020. We find no evidence that attitudes toward democracy are meaningfully different across the two parties. A subsequent analysis similarly indicates that the winner–loser gap has not widened as the parties have polarized over the last 25 years.

This paper studies the strategic adoption of populist rhetoric in electoral campaigns – i.e., the supply side of populism. We build on existing studies to argue that populist campaigning is more likely to be chosen by politicians who face an electorate characterized by high economic insecurity. We add that two other factors are crucial determinants of the choice of a populist campaign strategy, namely the closeness of the election and the candidate’s outsider status. We apply automated text analysis to campaign websites for the 2018 and 2020 congressional elections and construct a continuous index of populism in campaign documents. We provide evidence that indeed outsider candidates in competitive races resort to more populism in response to higher economic insecurity. Drawing connections between theories of voter mobilization and populist discourse, this paper sheds light on how local economic and political conditions are key to understanding the strategic supply of populism.

Does the availability of alcohol influence support for radical right-wing parties, and if so, why? Drawing parallels to the UK, where pub closures led to increased support for UKIP, this study investigates similar trends observed in Sweden. Utilizing a novel dataset of over 50,000 alcohol-serving permits and electoral data from 2002 to 2018, the study finds that a reduction in permits is associated with a 3.7% increase in support for the Sweden Democrats (SD). To explain this, it is argued that bar closures politicize alcohol regulation and serve as a symbolic issue linked to the populist radical right. Survey data from over 20,000 respondents reveal that individuals in municipalities with a decreasing number of permits are more likely to support alcohol deregulation policies, and these voters become more likely to support SD. These findings underscore how perceptions of government overregulation drive support for radical right-wing parties.

The rules by which parties select their candidates are important, not only because they determine the policy and leaders of a party. Candidate selection, the identity of those taking the final decision (selectorate), has been found to impact the behavior of parliamentarians around the world (e.g. Preece, 2014; Sieberer, 2006). However, there is disagreement among scholars as to which kind of effect we can expect, under which conditions and why. In light of an interesting, previously unstudied case – Switzerland – and on the basis of rich data relating to many different political activities we re-investigate the question of how candidate selection affects the political behavior. Our results indicate that in highly personalized political systems like the Swiss, MPs selected by a more inclusive selectorate do not differ significantly from other MPs in party loyalty but are more likely to engage in some activities that are more visible to their cantonal selectorate.

The historical oppression of women in China mirrors the experiences of women in many other cultures. During the imperial era, Confucian ideologies and institutions played a significant role in perpetuating women's disenfranchisement. This perception has become deeply entrenched, to the extent that contemporary discussions on women's status often automatically refer to lingering Confucian legacies as one of the obstacles to achieving gender equality. However, this study offers a nuanced perspective by shedding light on how certain aspects of Confucianism, notably meritocracy, may serve to empower modern-day women. The research focuses on the Chinese context, particularly the historically significant Confucian-based meritocratic institution known as the civil examination system (keju). I argue that historical meritocratic legacies can have a lasting impact on contemporary behavior, specifically by reducing the gender gap in political participation in local village elections. Using data from historical archives and the China General Social Survey, I find a negative correlation between a prefecture's historical success in the keju exams and the gender gap in village election turnout among present-day respondents. Further exploratory analyses reveal that the enduring Confucian tradition of meritocracy also empowers other low-status social groups, including the economically disadvantaged and the less educated.