Electoral Studies最新文献

英文中文

Issues of high potential: A novel methodology to uncover unactivated public policy demands 高潜力问题：一种揭示未激活公共政策需求的新方法

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103031

James Breckwoldt

Vote-seeking parties have a clear incentive to align their policies with voter demands, but they do not always do so. When demands go unaddressed, this gap between opinion and responsiveness can weaken trust in democracy and boost support for outsider parties. Despite their relevance to electoral competition, progress in uncovering unmet demands and measuring their relative importance to voters has been limited. This study develops a systematic method to prospectively detect ‘issues of high potential’ where there is bottom-up public demand, elite neglect, and the policy could motivate vote choice if a party were to adopt it. I combine open-ended survey responses, parliamentary speech analysis and a conjoint experiment, which is applied to the United Kingdom. I find that this is successful at uncovering a number of high potential policies, including those that are popular and motivating, those that are divisive and polarising, and those that divide public opinion evenly but motivate voting more strongly on one side. The methodology and findings have important implications for issue voting, political entrepreneurship and democratic responsiveness.

寻求选票的政党有明确的动机使他们的政策符合选民的要求，但他们并不总是这样做。当要求得不到满足时，这种意见和回应之间的差距可能会削弱对民主的信任，并增加对外部政党的支持。尽管这些要求与选举竞争有关，但在发现未满足的要求和衡量其对选民的相对重要性方面进展有限。本研究开发了一种系统的方法来前瞻性地发现“高潜力问题”，其中存在自下而上的公众需求，精英忽视，如果一个政党采用该政策，该政策可能会激励投票选择。我将开放式调查回应、议会演讲分析和一个联合实验结合起来，该实验应用于英国。我发现这在揭示一些高潜力政策方面是成功的，包括那些受欢迎和激励的政策，那些分裂和两极分化的政策，以及那些平分民意但更强烈地激发一方投票的政策。方法和调查结果对议题投票、政治创业精神和民主反应具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Could you please repeat it? The effect of language, and language variety on trust in multinational settings 请您再说一遍好吗？多国环境下语言和语言多样性对信任的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103030

Toni Rodon , Bernat Puertas , Avel·lí Flors-Mas , Núria Franco-Guillén , Sergi Morales-Gálvez

Does the language or dialect used in political messages affect people’s trust? While previous research has considered the question, little is known about how different languages and accents shape trust. Using an experimental matched-guise design in Catalonia, we test how standard Catalan, standard Spanish, and accented versions of both affect listeners’ trust in the speaker. We find that people generally trust the standard, non-accented version more, especially when it comes from their in-group. This effect is even stronger among individuals with a strong Catalan or Spanish identity–especially the latter–and among those on the far right.

政治信息中使用的语言或方言会影响人们的信任吗？虽然之前的研究已经考虑过这个问题，但对于不同的语言和口音是如何塑造信任的，我们知之甚少。我们在加泰罗尼亚进行了一项试验性的匹配伪装设计，测试了标准加泰罗尼亚语、标准西班牙语以及两种口音版本如何影响听者对说话者的信任。我们发现，人们通常更相信标准的、没有口音的版本，尤其是当它来自他们的群体时。这种影响在加泰罗尼亚人或西班牙人（尤其是后者）和极右翼人士中更为明显。

引用次数: 0

Electoral systems and geographically targeted oversight: Evidence from the Taiwan Legislative Yuan 选举制度与地域监督：来自台湾立法院的证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103026

Yen-Chieh Liao , Li Tang

Electoral systems have profound effects on legislator-constituent communication and representation. In this paper, we examine how Taiwan’s electoral reform—from multi-member districts under the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) to single-member districts under a Mixed Member Majoritarian system (MMM)—shapes district legislators’ particularistic behavior. Using fine-tuned transformer architectures, we analyze over 63,000 parliamentary questions from 402 district legislators spanning two decades to identify geographically targeted content. Controlling for legislator and municipal characteristics, we find that the reform from SNTV to MMM reduces geographically targeted questions, though this effect varies across municipalities with different economic profiles. Our analysis reveals that SNTV is associated with greater particularistic responsiveness to local socioeconomic conditions than single-member districts under MMM, suggesting that candidate-centered electoral systems of different types produce different behavioral incentives.

选举制度对立法者与选民的沟通和代表有着深远的影响。本文研究台湾的选举改革——从单一不可转移投票制（SNTV）下的多选区到混合多数制（MMM）下的单选区——如何塑造了地区立委的特殊行为。使用微调的变压器架构，我们分析了来自402个地区立法者的63,000多个议会问题，跨越20年，以确定地理上有针对性的内容。控制立法者和城市特征，我们发现从SNTV到MMM的改革减少了地理上针对性的问题，尽管这种效果在不同经济概况的城市之间有所不同。我们的分析表明，在MMM下，SNTV比单一成员区对当地社会经济条件的特殊反应更强，这表明不同类型的以候选人为中心的选举制度产生了不同的行为激励。

引用次数: 0

Added, not selected: The limited electoral effectiveness of party elite interventions in candidate selection 补充，而非选择：政党精英干预候选人选择的有限选举效率

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103041

Thomas Däubler , Theresa Reidy

An inclusive and decentralized mode of candidate selection may lead to unequal outcomes in terms of descriptive representation. Centralized intervention by party headquarters is often used as a partial remedy, but the ultimate effectiveness of these interventions depends on how well the “added” candidates fare on election day. This article investigates whether there is a difference in electoral performance between candidates who are nominated by a party selection convention and those who are added to the ticket directly by party elites. We focus on the Irish general election of 2020. Ireland is an interesting case, since candidate selection is formally inclusive and decentralized, but in practice party headquarters frequently intervene and add candidates. We hypothesize that added candidates, and especially women-added candidates, are less successful on election day. The results suggest that the expected relationships are strongly driven by differences in other observed candidate characteristics, such as incumbency and/or political experience. In addition, there is evidence that added female candidates struggle to obtain first preferences (under the Single Transferable Vote system) from certain subgroups of voters, surprisingly including strong supporters of gender equality.

包容性和分散性的候选人选择模式可能导致描述性代表性方面的不平等结果。政党总部的集中干预通常被用作部分补救措施，但这些干预的最终效果取决于“新增”候选人在选举日的表现。本文研究了由政党选举大会提名的候选人和由政党精英直接提名的候选人在选举表现上是否存在差异。我们关注2020年爱尔兰大选。爱尔兰是一个有趣的例子，因为候选人的选择在形式上是包容和分散的，但在实践中，政党总部经常干预并增加候选人。我们假设，增加的候选人，尤其是女性候选人，在选举日不太成功。结果表明，预期的关系在很大程度上是由其他观察到的候选人特征的差异所驱动的，比如在职和/或政治经验。此外，有证据表明，增加的女性候选人很难从某些选民群体中获得第一选择（在单一可转移投票制度下），令人惊讶的是，其中包括性别平等的坚定支持者。

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引用次数: 0

Burdens and gains. The association between house rent increases and voting in the city of Madrid 负担与收获。马德里市房租上涨与投票之间的关系

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103024

Álvaro Sánchez-García, Hugo Marcos-Marne

Existing research indicates that the electoral effects of changing house rents depend on political parties’ left-right positioning and adherence to populist ideas. This paper explores the association between house rent increases and voting in Madrid by exploiting the availability of fine-grained data at the census tract-level, and the existence of an electoral arena where parties compete from different positions on crucial dimensions such as populism and the intervention of the state in the economy. In particular, we focus our analysis on non-populist parties of the mainstream left (PSOE) and right (Ciudadanos and PP), a radical right party with a strong neoliberal discourse and inconsistent populist appeals (VOX), and a radical left party that has traditionally adopted a populist discourse (Unidas Podemos). Our main results indicate that house rent increases benefit right-wing parties in neighbourhoods with high ownership rates (economic gain), thus offering an alternative context-dependent mechanism to explain the success of (liberal) radical right parties when house rents rise. They also suggest that house rent increases associate with voting for left-wing parties, especially if they adhere to populist ideas, in neighbourhoods with lower levels of homeownership (economic burden).

现有研究表明，改变房租对选举的影响取决于政党的左右定位和对民粹主义思想的坚持。本文通过利用人口普查区层面的细粒度数据的可用性，以及在民粹主义和国家对经济的干预等关键维度上来自不同立场的政党竞争的选举舞台的存在，探讨了马德里房租上涨与投票之间的关系。特别是，我们将分析重点放在主流左翼（社会主义工人党）和右翼（公民党和人民党）的非民粹主义政党，一个具有强烈新自由主义话语和不一致的民粹主义诉求的激进右翼政党（VOX），以及一个传统上采用民粹主义话语的激进左翼政党（统一我们可以党）。我们的主要研究结果表明，房屋租金上涨有利于拥有率高的社区的右翼政党（经济收益），从而提供了另一种情境依赖机制来解释（自由）激进右翼政党在房屋租金上涨时的成功。他们还指出，在房屋拥有率（经济负担）较低的社区，房租上涨与左翼政党的投票有关，尤其是如果他们坚持民粹主义思想的话。

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引用次数: 0

Childhood poverty and political participation: The role of family, gender and economic mobility 儿童贫困与政治参与：家庭、性别和经济流动的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103029

Clara Weißenfels

Socio-economic background profoundly shapes electoral participation, with early-life economic hardship significantly dampening political engagement. Yet, poverty is not a monolith, it manifests in diverse ways and unfolds differently across individuals' life courses. This paper advances research on political inequality and political socialisation by examining how childhood poverty's impact on future voting behaviour is moderated by family and individual characteristics, including parental education, political socialisation, gender, and economic mobility. Using German panel data (GSOEP), this study links first-time voters to their parents and analyses electoral participation across four German federal elections (2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021). The findings reveal that while childhood poverty independently suppresses turnout, its effects are contingent on social context. Politically engaged and highly educated parents can buffer their children against the political disengagement associated with poverty, whereas upward economic mobility does not trigger higher turnout rates. These results underscore the interplay between economic hardship, family environment, and individual trajectories in shaping political habit formation, offering new insights into the mechanisms of participatory inequality.

社会经济背景深刻地影响着选举的参与，早年的经济困难显著地抑制了政治参与。然而，贫困不是一块巨石，它以多种方式表现出来，在个人的生命历程中以不同的方式展开。本文通过研究儿童贫困对未来投票行为的影响如何受到家庭和个人特征（包括父母教育、政治社会化、性别和经济流动性）的调节，推进了政治不平等和政治社会化的研究。本研究使用德国面板数据（GSOEP），将首次选民与其父母联系起来，并分析了四次德国联邦选举（2009年、2013年、2017年和2021年）的选举参与情况。研究结果显示，虽然童年贫困独立地抑制了投票率，但其影响取决于社会背景。参与政治和受过高等教育的父母可以缓冲他们的孩子与贫困相关的政治脱离，而向上的经济流动性并不会引发更高的投票率。这些结果强调了经济困难、家庭环境和个人轨迹在塑造政治习惯形成方面的相互作用，为参与性不平等的机制提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Who punishes the government? Income-based disparities in economic voting 谁来惩罚政府？经济投票中基于收入的差异

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103038

Chloé De Grauwe, Silke Goubin

Economic voting theory posits that electoral outcomes are influenced by economic performance: voters reward incumbent parties when the economy performs well and punish them when economic conditions deteriorate. Traditionally, this theory assumes that voters react uniformly to economic conditions. However, this study challenges that notion by exploring how income groups differ in holding incumbents accountable. We hypothesize that lower-income voters who are more vulnerable to economic downturns, and higher-income voters, insulated from personal financial risk but with more available assets, will react differently when economic conditions change. Through analyzing multilevel models based on the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we find that higher-income voters give more weight to economic evaluations when punishing or rewarding incumbent parties. Our results underscore voter heterogeneity in economic voting, suggesting that incumbents may disproportionately respond to the interests of wealthier voters.

经济投票理论认为，选举结果受到经济表现的影响：当经济表现良好时，选民会奖励现任政党，而当经济状况恶化时，选民会惩罚它们。传统上，这一理论假定选民对经济状况的反应是一致的。然而，这项研究通过探索收入群体在对现任者问责方面的差异，挑战了这一观念。我们假设，更容易受到经济衰退影响的低收入选民和不受个人财务风险影响但拥有更多可用资产的高收入选民，在经济状况变化时的反应会有所不同。通过对基于选举制度比较研究（CSES）的多层次模型的分析，我们发现高收入选民在惩罚或奖励现任政党时更重视经济评价。我们的研究结果强调了选民在经济投票中的异质性，表明现任者可能不成比例地对富裕选民的利益做出反应。

引用次数: 0

An attentive audience? If and how voters evaluate coalition formation 一个专心的听众？选民是否以及如何评价联合政府的组成

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103035

Ida B. Hjermitslev , Svenja Krauss

Coalition governments have traditionally been criticized for creating low clarity of responsibility and thus impairing voters’ ability to hold representatives accountable. Recent scholarship has suggested that voters are actually evaluating the coalition behavior of individual parties—not only at the end of the government period but also at the government formation stage. The answers to an open-ended question included in the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) in 2020, provide unique insights into the considerations that voters have when evaluating the formation of a government coalition. We find that these considerations include expected policy output, but also other aspects such as ideology, portfolio allocation, and fairness of payoffs etc. When exploring the topic of portfolio allocation in depth, we find that both quantitative and qualitative considerations play a role. Furthermore, we explore whether the extent to which voters think about and rationalize their satisfaction with the coalition formation, and the specific type of considerations that voters have in mind, depend on individual-level characteristics such as satisfaction with the outcome, political sophistication and partisanship.

传统上，联合政府一直被批评责任不明确，从而削弱了选民要求代表负责的能力。最近的学术研究表明，选民实际上是在评估单个政党的联合行为——不仅在政府任期结束时，而且在政府组建阶段。2020年奥地利国家选举研究（AUTNES）中包含了一个开放式问题的答案，为选民在评估联合政府组建时的考虑提供了独特的见解。我们发现，这些考虑因素包括预期的政策产出，但也包括其他方面，如意识形态，投资组合配置，和公平的回报等。当深入探讨投资组合配置的主题时，我们发现定量和定性的考虑都在起作用。此外，我们还探讨了选民对联盟组建满意度的思考和合理化程度，以及选民所考虑的具体考虑类型，是否取决于个人层面的特征，如对结果的满意度、政治成熟度和党派关系。

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引用次数: 0

Housing and electoral behaviour: The changing face of class voting in advanced democracies 住房与选举行为：发达民主国家阶级投票面貌的变化

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103009

Josh Goddard

Scholarship on the relationship between social structure and electoral behaviour has traditionally operationalised voters’ economic or class situations in terms of their labour market positions. Such an approach overlooks the growing importance of housing as a source of both socio-structural and electoral division. Using national election studies and household panel data from fourteen countries, I conduct the first systematic, cross-national, and longitudinal analysis of the electoral behaviour of housing market groups, finding that housing represents a strong and growing electoral divide in advanced democracies. Electoral support for centre-right and radical left parties is most strongly associated with housing market position, with homeowners significantly and increasingly more likely to support the former and renters significantly and increasingly more likely to support the latter. When other factors, such as house value and rental contract type are considered, housing based electoral divides appear even greater in scope, to the extent that housing market position is now a stronger predictor of voting for some party families – the centre-right and radical left in particular – than labour market position. These findings challenge the claim that class or economic circumstances have become increasingly unimportant in structuring voting behaviour, and suggest an updated conceptualisation and operationalisation of social stratification – which moves beyond occupation and the labour market – is required to understand the social structuring of contemporary politics.

关于社会结构和选举行为之间关系的学术研究，传统上是根据选民的劳动力市场地位，将选民的经济或阶级状况进行操作。这种做法忽视了住房作为社会结构和选举分裂根源的日益重要的作用。利用来自14个国家的全国选举研究和家庭面板数据，我对住房市场群体的选举行为进行了第一次系统的、跨国的和纵向的分析，发现住房在发达民主国家代表着一个强大的、不断扩大的选举鸿沟。选举中对中右翼和激进左翼政党的支持与住房市场地位的关系最为密切，房主明显且越来越有可能支持前者，租房者明显且越来越有可能支持后者。如果考虑到房屋价值和租赁合同类型等其他因素，以住房为基础的选举分歧的范围似乎更大，以至于住房市场地位现在比劳动力市场地位更能预测某些政党家庭（尤其是中右翼和激进左翼）的投票情况。这些发现挑战了阶级或经济环境在结构投票行为中变得越来越不重要的说法，并建议对社会分层进行更新的概念化和操作化-超越职业和劳动力市场-是理解当代政治的社会结构所必需的。

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引用次数: 0

Party organizational strength and voter turnout in authoritarian regimes 专制政权下的政党组织力量和选民投票率

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103034

Juhyeok Lee, Nam Kyu Kim

This study examines how ruling party organizational strength influences voter turnout in authoritarian elections. While parties and elections serve as crucial instruments for authoritarian survival, their effect on voter mobilization remains understudied. We argue that organizationally robust ruling parties–characterized by extensive grassroots networks and deep societal ties–enhance regimes’ capacity to manipulate electoral participation. However, dictators do not uniformly maximize turnout but selectively mobilize supporters while demobilizing opponents, particularly in competitive elections. Accordingly, we hypothesize that the effect of party strength on turnout is conditional on electoral competitiveness. Analyzing 94 autocracies from 1970–2019, we find that party organizational strength significantly increases turnout in non-competitive elections but has negligible effects in competitive contests. This pattern intensified after the Cold War as competitive authoritarianism proliferated globally.

本研究探讨威权选举中执政党组织实力对选民投票率的影响。虽然政党和选举是威权生存的关键工具，但它们对选民动员的影响仍未得到充分研究。我们认为，组织强大的执政党——其特点是广泛的基层网络和深厚的社会联系——增强了政权操纵选举参与的能力。然而，独裁者不会统一地最大化投票率，而是有选择地动员支持者，同时遣散反对者，特别是在竞争性选举中。因此，我们假设政党实力对投票率的影响取决于选举竞争力。通过分析1970-2019年的94个专制国家，我们发现政党组织实力显著提高了非竞争性选举的投票率，但对竞争性选举的影响可以忽略不计。这种模式在冷战后随着竞争性威权主义在全球扩散而加剧。

引用次数: 0

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