Electoral Studies最新文献

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The rural-urban cleavage in US presidential elections: Stability and sudden change 美国总统选举中的城乡分裂：稳定与突然变化

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103019

Valentin Pautonnier , Ruth Dassonneville , Michael S. Lewis-Beck , Richard Nadeau

Recent elections in the United States are characterized by a strong urban-rural divide, with rural voters being more likely to vote for the Republican Party and Democratic support concentrated in large urban centers. While much attention has been given to the sources of Republican support among rural voters, less is known about how this divide has emerged over time. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), the Cooperative Election Study (CES), and the General Social Survey (GSS), we trace longitudinal trends in the association between living in rural areas and voting in US presidential elections. Our results show that the rural-urban divide was stable for an extended period of time but suddenly became more pronounced in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Comparative analysis reveals that this cleavage now surpasses gender and income divisions in importance, though it remains weaker than race and religious cleavages. We also show that this sudden strengthening of the rural-urban divide is driven by both rural Democrats switching to the Republican Party and urban Republicans switching to supporting Democratic candidates.

美国最近的选举表现出强烈的城乡分化，农村选民更有可能投票给共和党，而民主党则集中在大城市中心。虽然人们对共和党在农村选民中的支持来源给予了很多关注，但人们对这种分歧是如何随着时间的推移而出现的却知之甚少。利用美国全国选举研究（ANES）、合作选举研究（CES）和综合社会调查（GSS）的数据，我们追踪了居住在农村地区与美国总统选举投票之间的纵向趋势。我们的研究结果表明，城乡差距在很长一段时间内保持稳定，但在2016年和2020年的选举中突然变得更加明显。对比分析显示，这种分歧现在的重要性超过了性别和收入分歧，尽管它仍然弱于种族和宗教分歧。我们还表明，城乡差距的突然加强是由农村民主党人转向共和党和城市共和党人转向支持民主党候选人推动的。

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引用次数: 0

Burdens and gains. The association between house rent increases and voting in the city of Madrid 负担与收获。马德里市房租上涨与投票之间的关系

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103024

Álvaro Sánchez-García, Hugo Marcos-Marne

Existing research indicates that the electoral effects of changing house rents depend on political parties’ left-right positioning and adherence to populist ideas. This paper explores the association between house rent increases and voting in Madrid by exploiting the availability of fine-grained data at the census tract-level, and the existence of an electoral arena where parties compete from different positions on crucial dimensions such as populism and the intervention of the state in the economy. In particular, we focus our analysis on non-populist parties of the mainstream left (PSOE) and right (Ciudadanos and PP), a radical right party with a strong neoliberal discourse and inconsistent populist appeals (VOX), and a radical left party that has traditionally adopted a populist discourse (Unidas Podemos). Our main results indicate that house rent increases benefit right-wing parties in neighbourhoods with high ownership rates (economic gain), thus offering an alternative context-dependent mechanism to explain the success of (liberal) radical right parties when house rents rise. They also suggest that house rent increases associate with voting for left-wing parties, especially if they adhere to populist ideas, in neighbourhoods with lower levels of homeownership (economic burden).

现有研究表明，改变房租对选举的影响取决于政党的左右定位和对民粹主义思想的坚持。本文通过利用人口普查区层面的细粒度数据的可用性，以及在民粹主义和国家对经济的干预等关键维度上来自不同立场的政党竞争的选举舞台的存在，探讨了马德里房租上涨与投票之间的关系。特别是，我们将分析重点放在主流左翼（社会主义工人党）和右翼（公民党和人民党）的非民粹主义政党，一个具有强烈新自由主义话语和不一致的民粹主义诉求的激进右翼政党（VOX），以及一个传统上采用民粹主义话语的激进左翼政党（统一我们可以党）。我们的主要研究结果表明，房屋租金上涨有利于拥有率高的社区的右翼政党（经济收益），从而提供了另一种情境依赖机制来解释（自由）激进右翼政党在房屋租金上涨时的成功。他们还指出，在房屋拥有率（经济负担）较低的社区，房租上涨与左翼政党的投票有关，尤其是如果他们坚持民粹主义思想的话。

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引用次数: 0

Childhood poverty and political participation: The role of family, gender and economic mobility 儿童贫困与政治参与：家庭、性别和经济流动的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103029

Clara Weißenfels

Socio-economic background profoundly shapes electoral participation, with early-life economic hardship significantly dampening political engagement. Yet, poverty is not a monolith, it manifests in diverse ways and unfolds differently across individuals' life courses. This paper advances research on political inequality and political socialisation by examining how childhood poverty's impact on future voting behaviour is moderated by family and individual characteristics, including parental education, political socialisation, gender, and economic mobility. Using German panel data (GSOEP), this study links first-time voters to their parents and analyses electoral participation across four German federal elections (2009, 2013, 2017, and 2021). The findings reveal that while childhood poverty independently suppresses turnout, its effects are contingent on social context. Politically engaged and highly educated parents can buffer their children against the political disengagement associated with poverty, whereas upward economic mobility does not trigger higher turnout rates. These results underscore the interplay between economic hardship, family environment, and individual trajectories in shaping political habit formation, offering new insights into the mechanisms of participatory inequality.

社会经济背景深刻地影响着选举的参与，早年的经济困难显著地抑制了政治参与。然而，贫困不是一块巨石，它以多种方式表现出来，在个人的生命历程中以不同的方式展开。本文通过研究儿童贫困对未来投票行为的影响如何受到家庭和个人特征（包括父母教育、政治社会化、性别和经济流动性）的调节，推进了政治不平等和政治社会化的研究。本研究使用德国面板数据（GSOEP），将首次选民与其父母联系起来，并分析了四次德国联邦选举（2009年、2013年、2017年和2021年）的选举参与情况。研究结果显示，虽然童年贫困独立地抑制了投票率，但其影响取决于社会背景。参与政治和受过高等教育的父母可以缓冲他们的孩子与贫困相关的政治脱离，而向上的经济流动性并不会引发更高的投票率。这些结果强调了经济困难、家庭环境和个人轨迹在塑造政治习惯形成方面的相互作用，为参与性不平等的机制提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Introduction to the Special Issue “The rural-urban divide in Europe: Assessing its impact on political attitudes and voting behavior” 特刊“欧洲的城乡差距：评估其对政治态度和投票行为的影响”导言

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103028

Pedro Riera , Sigrid Roßteutscher

引用次数: 0

Who is trusted to navigate the storm? Gendered leadership preferences in times of crisis 谁能被信任来驾驭风暴？危机时期的性别领导偏好

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103023

Lotte Hargrave , Jessica C. Smith , Viktor Valgarðsson , Daniel Devine , Hannah Bunting , Caroline Leicht

What traits do the public prioritise when it comes to trusting political leaders during crises, and are these expectations gendered? While prior research has examined gender biases in political leadership, especially in masculine-coded crises like security or defence, less attention has been paid to how different crisis types shape preferences for gendered leadership traits. Drawing on a UK-based survey experiment, we examine which traits the public value in trustworthy politicians across health, security, and economic crises. We find that while honesty is a universally prioritised trustworthy trait, broader trait preferences are moderated by the type of crisis and respondent gender. Although feminine traits are preferred across the board, security crises elicit relatively stronger preferences for traditionally masculine traits than other crisis types, although only among men. Conversely, health crises amplify support for feminine traits, although only among women. These findings highlight how crisis contexts activate gendered expectations of leadership, revealing that what the public wants from politicians shifts with both the nature of the crisis and the gender of the voter.

在危机期间，当涉及到信任政治领导人时，公众会优先考虑哪些特征？这些期望是有性别的吗？虽然之前的研究已经调查了政治领导中的性别偏见，特别是在男性编码的危机中，如安全或国防，但很少有人关注不同的危机类型如何塑造对性别领导特质的偏好。根据英国的一项调查实验，我们研究了值得信赖的政治家在健康、安全和经济危机中的公共价值特征。我们发现，虽然诚实是普遍优先考虑的值得信赖的特质，但更广泛的特质偏好受到危机类型和受访者性别的调节。尽管女性特质普遍受到青睐，但与其他危机类型相比，安全危机引发的对传统男性特质的偏好相对更强，尽管这只发生在男性身上。相反，健康危机扩大了对女性特质的支持，尽管只是在女性中。这些发现强调了危机背景如何激活对领导力的性别期望，揭示了公众对政治家的期望随着危机的性质和选民的性别而变化。

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引用次数: 0

Housing and electoral behaviour: The changing face of class voting in advanced democracies 住房与选举行为：发达民主国家阶级投票面貌的变化

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103009

Josh Goddard

Scholarship on the relationship between social structure and electoral behaviour has traditionally operationalised voters’ economic or class situations in terms of their labour market positions. Such an approach overlooks the growing importance of housing as a source of both socio-structural and electoral division. Using national election studies and household panel data from fourteen countries, I conduct the first systematic, cross-national, and longitudinal analysis of the electoral behaviour of housing market groups, finding that housing represents a strong and growing electoral divide in advanced democracies. Electoral support for centre-right and radical left parties is most strongly associated with housing market position, with homeowners significantly and increasingly more likely to support the former and renters significantly and increasingly more likely to support the latter. When other factors, such as house value and rental contract type are considered, housing based electoral divides appear even greater in scope, to the extent that housing market position is now a stronger predictor of voting for some party families – the centre-right and radical left in particular – than labour market position. These findings challenge the claim that class or economic circumstances have become increasingly unimportant in structuring voting behaviour, and suggest an updated conceptualisation and operationalisation of social stratification – which moves beyond occupation and the labour market – is required to understand the social structuring of contemporary politics.

关于社会结构和选举行为之间关系的学术研究，传统上是根据选民的劳动力市场地位，将选民的经济或阶级状况进行操作。这种做法忽视了住房作为社会结构和选举分裂根源的日益重要的作用。利用来自14个国家的全国选举研究和家庭面板数据，我对住房市场群体的选举行为进行了第一次系统的、跨国的和纵向的分析，发现住房在发达民主国家代表着一个强大的、不断扩大的选举鸿沟。选举中对中右翼和激进左翼政党的支持与住房市场地位的关系最为密切，房主明显且越来越有可能支持前者，租房者明显且越来越有可能支持后者。如果考虑到房屋价值和租赁合同类型等其他因素，以住房为基础的选举分歧的范围似乎更大，以至于住房市场地位现在比劳动力市场地位更能预测某些政党家庭（尤其是中右翼和激进左翼）的投票情况。这些发现挑战了阶级或经济环境在结构投票行为中变得越来越不重要的说法，并建议对社会分层进行更新的概念化和操作化-超越职业和劳动力市场-是理解当代政治的社会结构所必需的。

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引用次数: 0

Amplifying the message? The effect of endorsements in primary elections 放大信息？支持在初选中的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103020

Alessio Albarello , Mayya Komisarchik

Voters face difficult choices in primary elections. Partisan cues are typically uninformative, the number of potentially viable candidates may be large, and detailed information about candidates' policy views or competence may be scarce. Endorsements, particularly those coming from high profile party elites, can provide voters with useful heuristics that help them make their choices. Yet little is known about how voters understand different types of endorsements in primary elections. We fill this gap with a study conducted during the 2020 Democratic primaries where we causally isolate the distinct impact of policy and electability endorsements. We find that endorsements based on policy issues raise support for candidates by 13 percentage points and endorsements emphasizing electability raise support for candidates by 15 percentage points. The results demonstrate that primary election endorsements that invoke policy or electability can influence vote choice and ultimately outcomes.

选民在初选中面临艰难的选择。党派线索通常不具有信息性，潜在候选人的数量可能很大，关于候选人的政策观点或能力的详细信息可能很少。支持，尤其是那些来自知名政党精英的支持，可以为选民提供有用的启发，帮助他们做出选择。然而，对于选民如何理解初选中不同类型的支持，我们知之甚少。我们通过在2020年民主党初选期间进行的一项研究填补了这一空白，在该研究中，我们偶然地隔离了政策和可选性支持的明显影响。我们发现，基于政策问题的支持使候选人的支持率提高了13个百分点，强调可选性的支持使候选人的支持率提高了15个百分点。结果表明，初选支持援引政策或可选性可以影响投票选择和最终结果。

引用次数: 0

Political violence and invalid voting: A case study 政治暴力与无效投票：个案研究

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103025

Abelardo Gómez Díaz

This study explores the extent to which political violence influences levels of invalid voting, a common form of electoral protest. It also explores the extent to which this relationship is consistent across different levels of electoral competitiveness. With a focus on Mexico, this study relies on a sample of over 2000 municipalities across three consecutive elections. The results from a time-series cross-sectional analysis show that (1) political violence is strongly associated with an increase in invalid voting, and that (2) invalid voting is more likely in violent but competitive electoral environments, where voters can make their protest ‘count.’ These results contribute to a broader understanding of electoral behaviour in violent contexts and underscores the role of electoral competitiveness in shaping the impact of political violence on voter behaviour.

本研究探讨政治暴力对无效投票（一种常见的选举抗议形式）水平的影响程度。它还探讨了这种关系在不同水平的选举竞争力中是一致的程度。本研究以墨西哥为重点，以连续三次选举的2000多个城市为样本。时间序列横断面分析的结果显示：(1)政治暴力与无效投票的增加密切相关；(2)在暴力但竞争的选举环境中，无效投票更有可能发生，选民可以使他们的抗议“起作用”。“这些结果有助于更广泛地理解暴力背景下的选举行为，并强调了选举竞争力在塑造政治暴力对选民行为的影响方面的作用。”

引用次数: 0

Campaign spending in mixed member proportional systems: How political and institutional context shapes party strategy 混合成员比例制度下的竞选支出：政治和制度背景如何塑造政党战略

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103027

Dominic Nyhuis , Sebastian Block , Morten Harmening , Tilko Swalve

Despite extensive work on local campaign spending, existing research has mostly focused on campaign expenditures in majoritarian systems, while disregarding spending patterns under other institutional arrangements. To help fill this gap, we study how parties allocate their funds in mixed member systems. Based on the notion of contamination between the electoral tiers, we argue that spending is less targeted toward winning the district mandate under mixed electoral rules than would be expected in a pure majoritarian system, as parties stand to benefit from a visible district contender even when they lose the race. Studying candidate survey data collected over the course of four German federal elections between 2009 and 2021, this expectation is confirmed. While the general pattern is evident in all four elections, the shifting political and institutional context of campaigning in Germany has changed party strategies. A more proportional electoral system, along with a more fragmented party system has put a nominal mandate within reach of smaller parties, while larger parties are less sure about winning in their former strongholds, prompting parties to move to more targeted spending on competitive seats.

尽管对地方竞选支出进行了广泛的研究，但现有的研究主要集中在多数制度下的竞选支出，而忽视了其他制度安排下的支出模式。为了帮助填补这一空白，我们研究了各方如何在混合成员制度中分配资金。基于选举层级之间的污染概念，我们认为，在混合选举规则下，支出的目标不是赢得地区授权，而不是在纯粹的多数主义制度下预期的那样，因为政党即使在竞选失败时也会从一个明显的地区竞争者中受益。通过研究2009年至2021年四次德国联邦选举期间收集的候选人调查数据，这一预期得到了证实。虽然四次选举的总体模式都很明显，但德国竞选活动的政治和制度背景的变化改变了政党的战略。一个更加比例化的选举制度，加上一个更加分散的政党制度，使得小党可以获得名义上的授权，而大党则不太确定在他们以前的据点获胜，这促使各政党转向更有针对性的支出来争夺席位。

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引用次数: 0

Party gatekeeping of working-class candidates under closed-list proportional representation 在封闭名单比例代表制下，工人阶级候选人的政党把关

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103021

Sania Akter , Yann Kerevel , Austin S. Matthews

Do political parties discriminate against working-class candidates? Several studies indicate political parties may disadvantage working-class candidates by marginalizing them during the nomination process. In this study, we examine one way in which party leaders may marginalize working-class candidates through list placement under closed-list proportional representation (PR). Using the occupational background of candidates from national parliamentary elections in Moldova, and national and sub-national elections in Germany, we find working-class candidates are systematically ranked lower on PR lists, even after accounting for other known factors that influence list placement. We also explore heterogeneous class effects by party and sex, and examine possible mechanisms to explain workers' lower list placement. Our results suggest part of the reason for workers’ disadvantage is due to their lack of political experience and the organizational weakness of unions. This study finds parties disadvantage candidates based on their class background which further contributes to their underrepresentation in legislatures.

政党是否歧视工人阶级候选人？几项研究表明，政党可能会在提名过程中边缘化工人阶级候选人，从而使他们处于不利地位。在本研究中，我们考察了政党领导人在封闭名单比例代表制（PR）下通过名单放置来边缘化工人阶级候选人的一种方式。利用摩尔多瓦全国议会选举候选人的职业背景，以及德国全国和地方选举候选人的职业背景，我们发现，即使在考虑了影响名单位置的其他已知因素之后，工人阶级候选人在公关名单上的系统性排名也较低。我们还探讨了政党和性别的异质阶级效应，并研究了解释工人排名较低的可能机制。我们的研究结果表明，工人处于不利地位的部分原因是由于他们缺乏政治经验和工会的组织弱点。本研究发现政党基于阶级背景对候选人不利，这进一步导致了他们在立法机构中的代表性不足。

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