Electoral Studies最新文献

英文中文

Vote choice under certainty, risk, and uncertainty 确定性、风险和不确定性下的投票选择

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102972

Guido Tiemann

Voters are thought to be repelled by unclear party communication or all-out uncertainty about their ideological or programmatic positions. Our contribution builds on a series of survey experiments in the alternative states of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. Choice under risk occurs, for instance, when electoral platforms transmit blurred or unclear signals. However, the range of potential positions and their respective probabilities is considered common, exogenous knowledge: we find that these scenarios neither attract nor repel voters. In contrast, choice under uncertainty is given when potential outcomes or their respective probabilities are unknown to the voters and require endogenous cognitive abilities and endogenous signal processing: we demonstrate that choice under uncertainty tends to drive away voters. The experimental setup considers both spatial and non-spatial components of voter utility and their contextual conditions to bolster external validity and arrive at more internally and externally valid assessments of vote choice under various “states of nature”.

选民被认为是被不明确的政党沟通或对其意识形态或纲领立场的全面不确定所排斥。我们的贡献建立在一系列在确定性、风险和不确定性的替代状态下的调查实验之上。例如，当选举平台发出模糊或不明确的信号时，就会出现风险选择。然而，潜在位置的范围及其各自的概率被认为是常见的外生知识：我们发现这些场景既不吸引也不排斥选民。相比之下，不确定性下的选择是在潜在结果或其各自的概率对选民来说是未知的，并且需要内源性认知能力和内源性信号处理的情况下给出的：我们证明了不确定性下的选择倾向于赶走选民。实验设置考虑了选民效用的空间和非空间成分及其上下文条件，以增强外部有效性，并在各种“自然状态”下对投票选择进行更多的内部和外部有效评估。

引用次数: 0

Do voters on the left show more solidarity behaviour? Novel behavioural evidence from interactive surveys in Austria, West and East Germany 左翼选民表现出更多的团结行为吗？来自奥地利、西德和东德互动调查的新行为证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102980

Achim Goerres, Jakob Eicheler

Voters on the left typically demand more public redistribution than those on the right. While existing research has demonstrated differences in social behaviour by political ideology, we know little on whether left voters are willing to show more costly solidarity towards others. In this study, we test pre-registered hypotheses on whether the MARPOR left-right score of voters’ preferred party and left-right self-placement predict more solidarity behaviour. We introduce a novel Extended Solidarity Game to measure costly solidarity behaviour as contributions to compensate for income losses of others in randomly assigned groups. The behavioural instrument allows for simultaneous group interactions and was embedded in online surveys in the party system contexts of Austria, West and East Germany. We find evidence for the predicted ideological differences in solidarity: while the MARPOR left-right score shows only a non-significant effect in the expected direction, left-right self-placement (as well as the CHES scores) show a strong, robust and significant effect. The strength of this relationship is highly context-dependent: in Austria and West Germany, predicted contributions of leftmost participants are about 8 percentage points higher than those of rightmost participants. In East Germany, this predicted difference amounts to about 30 percentage points. Additional analyses rule out differences in social trust, economic or cultural political orientations as alternative explanations for the context-dependency of the effect. We argue that the East German party system – characterised by clearer programmatic party differences and more intense party competition – leads voters to define their ideological position more clearly and increases the behavioural relevance of political ideology.

左派选民通常比右派选民要求更多的公共再分配。虽然现有的研究已经证明了政治意识形态在社会行为上的差异，但我们对左翼选民是否愿意对他人表现出更昂贵的团结却知之甚少。在这项研究中，我们检验了预先登记的假设，即选民首选政党的MARPOR左右得分和左右自我定位是否能预测更多的团结行为。我们引入了一种新颖的扩展团结博弈来衡量代价高昂的团结行为，作为补偿随机分配群体中其他人收入损失的贡献。行为工具允许同时进行群体互动，并嵌入在奥地利，西德和东德政党制度背景下的在线调查中。我们发现了预测的意识形态团结差异的证据：尽管MARPOR左右得分在预期方向上仅显示出不显著的影响，但左右自我定位（以及CHES得分）显示出强烈、稳健和显著的影响。这种关系的强度是高度依赖于环境的：在奥地利和西德，最左边的参与者的预测贡献比最右边的参与者高8个百分点。在东德，这一预测差异约为30个百分点。额外的分析排除了社会信任、经济或文化政治取向的差异作为影响的背景依赖性的替代解释。我们认为，东德政党制度的特点是更明确的政党纲领差异和更激烈的政党竞争，这导致选民更清楚地定义他们的意识形态立场，并增加了政治意识形态的行为相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Local news, partisanship, and perceptions about election administration 地方新闻、党派关系和对选举管理的看法

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102970

Murat Abus , Kexin Bai , Johanna Dunaway

How does access to local news shape perceptions of election integrity? While existing research emphasizes the influence of partisanship and motivated reasoning, exposure to observable facts about election administration also affects these perceptions. Traditionally, local news was voters’ main source for such information. However, local news has declined significantly – especially in reporting capacity – due to increased competition in the digital media landscape. As a result, the public has less access to objective information about how elections are run, potentially increasing reliance on partisan cues. In this paper, we use individual-level survey data, measures of local news availability, and county-level election results from the 2016 and 2020 cycles to examine whether and how access to local news moderates the effects of partisanship and the winner/loser gap on voter perceptions of election integrity.

获取本地新闻如何影响人们对选举诚信的看法？虽然现有的研究强调党派关系和动机推理的影响，但暴露于有关选举管理的可观察事实也会影响这些看法。传统上，当地新闻是选民获取此类信息的主要来源。然而，由于数字媒体领域的竞争加剧，地方新闻已经大幅下降，尤其是在报道能力方面。因此，公众获得有关选举运作的客观信息的渠道越来越少，这可能会增加对党派线索的依赖。在本文中，我们使用个人层面的调查数据、地方新闻可用性的度量以及2016年和2020年周期的县级选举结果，来研究地方新闻的获取是否以及如何调节党派关系和赢家/输家差距对选民对选举诚信的看法的影响。

引用次数: 0

New evidence on citizens’ reactions to democratic norm violations in an advanced democracy 在发达民主国家，公民对违反民主规范的反应的新证据

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102971

Sirianne Dahlum, Peter Egge Langsæther, Tore Wig

We investigate citizens’ commitments to democratic norms in a democratic “posterchild”, using the case of Norway. Previous research suggests that citizens often accept elite violations of democratic norms. We distinguish between more subtle infractions and explicit rejections of democracy, and we assess how citizens respond when democratic violations are framed as necessary to achieve pressing societal goals. We find that concrete democratic-norm violations, such as accepting violent rhetoric, meet only weakly punitive reactions among citizens. Policy disagreement or party identification are not important moderators. This may suggest significant opportunity space for elite-driven democratic backsliding even in highly advanced democracies. Yet, citizens heavily punish the most outright rejections of democracy, that question democracy itself, even when justified in order to reach desired political and social outcomes. These findings are consistent with the notion that citizens tolerate specific anti-democratic actions because these are not necessarily considered as violating democracy, while statements clearly violating democracy are punished more.

我们以挪威为例，在一个民主的“模范”国家调查公民对民主规范的承诺。先前的研究表明，公民通常会接受精英阶层违反民主规范的行为。我们区分更微妙的违反和对民主的明确拒绝，并评估当违反民主被视为实现紧迫社会目标所必需时公民的反应。我们发现，具体违反民主规范的行为，如接受暴力言论，只会在公民中引起微弱的惩罚性反应。政策分歧或政党认同不是重要的调节因素。这可能意味着即使在高度发达的民主国家，精英驱动的民主倒退也有很大的机会空间。然而，公民们严厉惩罚那些最直接地拒绝民主、质疑民主本身的人，即使是为了达到理想的政治和社会结果而被证明是正当的。这些发现与公民容忍特定的反民主行为的观点是一致的，因为这些行为不一定被视为违反民主，而明显违反民主的言论受到的惩罚更多。

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引用次数: 0

Not just who, but how: Further probing the connection between primary election dissatisfaction and general election voting behavior 不只是谁，而是如何：进一步探讨初选不满与大选投票行为之间的联系

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102969

Elizabeth N. Simas , Lucas Lothamer

How does divided primary support impact parties and their candidates come the general election? Existing works fail to offer a clear consensus, with some finding evidence of “sour grapes” and defection and others finding that voters ultimately come home to their party. We offer a more recent examination of how support for a losing primary candidate is related to general election voting behavior. In addition, we also hypothesize that dissatisfaction with aspects of how nominating contests are conducted will be related to greater probabilities of defection or abstention. Using original data from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES), we find only mixed evidence that dissatisfaction with Joe Biden lead to a greater probability of defecting to Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. More consistently, we find that dissatisfaction with the process that led to Biden's nomination – especially dislike of the roles of Iowa and New Hampshire -- is associated with defection. These findings suggest that parties should think about both the people running and process by which they are nominated if hoping to maximize general election support among their members.

分裂的初选支持率如何影响政党及其候选人进入大选？现有的研究未能提供一个明确的共识，一些人发现了“酸葡萄”和叛逃的证据，另一些人发现选民最终回到了他们的政党。我们提供了一个更近期的检查如何支持一个失败的初选候选人与大选投票行为有关。此外，我们还假设，对提名竞赛进行方式方面的不满将与更大的叛逃或弃权概率有关。利用2020年合作选举研究（CES）的原始数据，我们发现只有混合证据表明，对乔·拜登的不满导致在2020年大选中投奔唐纳德·特朗普的可能性更大。更一致的是，我们发现，对导致拜登获得提名的过程的不满——尤其是对爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州所扮演角色的不满——与叛逃有关。这些发现表明，如果政党希望最大限度地提高其成员在大选中的支持率，就应该考虑候选人和提名过程。

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引用次数: 0

Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD): A new dataset of national election dates 选举时间跨越专制和民主（ETAD）：全国选举日期的新数据集

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102964

Masaaki Higashijima , Naoki Shimizu , Hidekuni Washida , Yuki Yanai

We introduce the Election Timing across Autocracy and Democracy (ETAD) dataset, which provides comprehensive data on the timing of the national elections in autocracies and democracies between 1945 and 2023. ETAD covers 3,127 legislative and presidential elections in 148 countries. Various research agendas have targeted election timing, but no global dataset measuring precise timing has been available. ETAD provides scholars with detailed information on election timing, including which date an election was held, how many days an election was accelerated or delayed from the initially scheduled date, and why the election timing was changed. ETAD has three distinct features. First, it covers legislative and presidential elections in both autocracies and democracies. Second, it records dates, which allows researchers to operationalize early or delayed elections following their specific purposes. Third, it identifies the major reasons for timing changes, helping us better understand governments’ strategies of changing election timing. ETAD improves our understanding of electoral behavior, institutional constraints, and regime dynamics by bridging gaps in existing research and enabling nuanced analyses. To demonstrate that, we present a research example about opportunistic election timing. The ETAD dataset and its codebook can be downloaded from the author’s website or installed as an R package.

我们介绍了专制和民主国家的选举时间（ETAD）数据集，它提供了1945年至2023年间专制和民主国家全国选举时间的综合数据。ETAD涵盖了148个国家的3127个立法和总统选举。各种各样的研究议程都针对选举时间，但没有全球数据集可以测量精确的时间。ETAD为学者提供了选举时间的详细信息，包括选举举行的日期，选举从最初计划的日期提前或推迟了多少天，以及选举时间改变的原因。ETAD有三个明显的特点。首先，它涵盖了专制国家和民主国家的立法和总统选举。其次，它记录了日期，这使得研究人员能够根据他们的特定目的提前或推迟选举。第三，它确定了时间变化的主要原因，帮助我们更好地理解政府改变选举时间的策略。ETAD通过弥合现有研究中的差距和进行细致入微的分析，提高了我们对选举行为、制度约束和政权动态的理解。为了证明这一点，我们提出了一个关于机会主义选举时机的研究实例。ETAD数据集及其代码本可以从作者的网站下载或作为R包安装。

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引用次数: 0

How nuclear power hurts the Greens: Evidence from German nuclear power plants 核能是如何伤害绿党的：来自德国核电站的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102959

António Valentim , Heike Klüver , Cornelius Erfort

What are the electoral consequences of nuclear energy for Green parties? Despite the centrality of nuclear opposition to Green party platforms, and the social movements that helped them emerge, little research has examined the electoral impact of this stance. Building on work on energy transitions and local political economy, we propose that the economic benefits of nuclear power can mitigate local public opposition to such otherwise unpopular energy policies. We test this by analyzing the effect of nuclear power plants on electoral support for the German Greens, one of the most vocal opponents of nuclear energy. Using a novel dataset that combines the geolocation of nuclear plants with voting records since the 1980s, and employing difference-in-differences and instrumental variable designs, we find that the opening of nuclear plants correlates with a decrease in Green party vote share. These findings are relevant for understanding Green parties, energy transitions, and unpopular policies.

核能对绿党的选举有什么影响？尽管对绿党纲领的核心反对，以及帮助他们出现的社会运动处于中心地位，但很少有研究调查这种立场对选举的影响。基于对能源转型和地方政治经济的研究，我们提出核电的经济效益可以缓解当地公众对此类不受欢迎的能源政策的反对。我们通过分析核电站对德国绿党选举支持率的影响来检验这一点，德国绿党是核能最直言不讳的反对者之一。利用一个新的数据集，将核电站的地理位置与20世纪80年代以来的投票记录结合起来，并采用差异中的差异和工具变量设计，我们发现核电站的开放与绿党投票份额的下降相关。这些发现有助于理解绿党、能源转型和不受欢迎的政策。

引用次数: 0

Do the rich ditch politics? Evidence from Sweden 富人会抛弃政治吗？来自瑞典的证据

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102966

Anton Brännlund , Rafael Ahlskog

The world has seen a massive increase in wealth and wealth inequality over the last decades. Given the skew in policy making towards the preferences of the wealthy, this raises the question of how individual wealth affects political participation. Approaching this question empirically is complicated by the fact that random variation in wealth is rare, and many factors that can bias the estimation of the relationship between wealth and participation are difficult to measure. We address the question using a Swedish discordant identical twin design with a) register-based wealth data, b) validated election turnout for multiple elections, and c) self-reported civic participation measures. This design allows us to rule out all shared confounders, such as genetics, family background and socialization, and shared networks. We find that even though wealthy individuals descriptively vote more often, a causal effect of wealth is not detectable, and may for civic participation even be negative.

在过去的几十年里，世界见证了财富和财富不平等的大幅增加。考虑到政策制定向富人偏好倾斜，这就提出了个人财富如何影响政治参与的问题。由于财富的随机变化是罕见的，而且许多可能对财富与参与之间关系的估计产生偏差的因素是难以衡量的，因此从经验上处理这个问题是复杂的。我们使用瑞典不协调的同卵双胞胎设计来解决这个问题：a)基于登记的财富数据，b)多次选举的有效选举投票率，以及c)自我报告的公民参与措施。这种设计允许我们排除所有共同的混杂因素，如基因、家庭背景和社交，以及共享的网络。我们发现，尽管富有的个人在描述上更频繁地投票，但财富的因果效应无法检测到，甚至可能对公民参与产生负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Does prepaid postage increase voter turnout? An analysis across time and municipalities in Switzerland 预付邮资会增加选民投票率吗？瑞士不同时间和城市的分析

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102968

Pierre F.R. Lüssi, Alina Zumbrunn

Political participation is the backbone of democracy. One measure to increase voter turnout in vote-by-mail systems is prepaying postage. Previous studies investigated the effect of prepaid postage and found that it significantly increases turnout. Using an original data set covering all national direct democratic votes in 1893 Swiss municipalities from 2005 to 2023, we replicate earlier studies and investigate temporal as well as contextual variation. We find that the effect of prepaid postage on turnout is contingent upon both time and municipal characteristics: 1) postage starts to increase turnout only after three to five years. 2) Abolishing prepaid postage reverses the increase in turnout. 3) The effect is larger in municipalities with more post boxes and a greater average distance to the office of municipal authorities. The evidence from our study suggests that prepaid postage cannot be viewed as a one-size-fits-all solution.

政治参与是民主的支柱。在邮寄投票系统中提高选民投票率的一项措施是预付邮资。之前的研究调查了预付邮资的影响，发现它显著提高了投票率。使用涵盖2005年至2023年瑞士1893个自治市所有国家直接民主投票的原始数据集，我们复制了早期的研究，并调查了时间和背景差异。我们发现预付邮资对投票率的影响取决于时间和城市特征：1)邮资在三到五年后才开始增加投票率。2)取消预付邮资会逆转投票率的增长。(3)在邮箱较多、离市政机关办公室平均距离较远的城市，这种影响更大。我们研究的证据表明，预付邮资不能被视为一刀切的解决方案。

引用次数: 0

“And some, I assume, are good people”: Determinants of elites’ strategic discourse about immigrants and refugees “我想，有些人是好人”：精英们关于移民和难民的战略话语的决定因素

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102952

João V. Guedes-Neto , Alex Honeker

Using computational text analysis of US representatives’ tweets during the 2020 election campaign, we examine how geographic representation–specifically, the demographic characteristics of districts–moderate rhetoric about immigrants and refugees. While Republicans are overall more negative toward immigrants than Democrats (but not toward refugees), when it comes to salience, Democrats show strategic communication tailored to the ethnic composition of their districts. In districts that are predominantly non-Hispanic, whiter, and more rural, Democratic representatives reduce the salience of immigrants and refugees in their messages, while increasing it as the share of the Hispanic population rises. This strategic use of salience is not observed in Republican legislators’ tweets. We also find that while Democrats use the terms “immigrant” and “refugee” interchangeably when discussing migrants from the southern border, Republicans’ greater positivity toward refugees responds, in part, to using the term for potential Hong Kong refugees, likely deemed as more deserving of protection. These findings highlight elites’ strategic messaging on immigration and how legislators navigate intraparty politics to satisfy the preferences of their party and constituents.

通过对2020年大选期间美国众议员推文的计算文本分析，我们研究了地理代表性——具体来说，是地区的人口特征——如何缓和有关移民和难民的言论。虽然共和党人总体上对移民的态度比民主党人更消极（但对难民的态度并非如此），但在突出性方面，民主党人表现出了针对其选区种族构成量身定制的战略沟通。在以非西班牙裔、白人和更多农村人口为主的选区，民主党代表在他们的信息中减少了移民和难民的重要性，同时随着西班牙裔人口比例的上升而增加了移民和难民的重要性。在共和党议员的推文中，并没有看到这种策略性的突出性运用。我们还发现，虽然民主党人在讨论来自南部边境的移民时交替使用“移民”和“难民”这两个词，但共和党人对难民的更积极态度在一定程度上回应了他们将这个词用于潜在的香港难民，他们可能被认为更值得保护。这些发现突出了精英们在移民问题上的战略信息，以及立法者如何驾驭党内政治，以满足本党和选民的偏好。

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