Electoral Studies最新文献

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Assessing the impact of internet voting on voter turnout in the 2024 Russian presidential elections 评估网络投票对2024年俄罗斯总统选举投票率的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103008

Alena Teplyshova

This paper investigates the impact of internet voting (i-voting) on voter turnout in Russia's 2024 presidential election. While i-voting has been widely studied in democratic contexts, its effects in authoritarian regimes remain underexplored. To address this gap, the study combines a difference-in-differences design with pre-matching to estimate the causal impact of i-voting across Russian regions. The hypothesis is grounded in a theoretical framework that identifies how i-voting can serve authoritarian strategies of turnout management—through controlled mobilisation, reduced visibility of coercion, and potential for covert manipulation. Contrary to the initial expectation, the findings reveal that, while positive, the impact of i-voting on turnout is not statistically significant, with robustness checks confirming the reliability of these results. Rather than driving a significant rise in participation, i-voting may have played a more subtle, stabilising role in managing turnout, aligning with the regime's strategic goals targeting the regions with historically lower turnout. Additionally, the shifting of the same loyal voters from offline to the online platform and demobilisation of certain voter segments may have limited its impact on increasing turnout. These results open up new avenues for understanding how digital technologies are deployed in authoritarian regimes, not necessarily to expand participation but to ensure tighter control over electoral processes.

本文研究了网络投票（i-voting）对俄罗斯2024年总统选举投票率的影响。虽然i-voting在民主背景下已被广泛研究，但其在专制政权中的影响仍未得到充分探讨。为了解决这一差距，该研究将差异中的差异设计与预匹配相结合，以估计俄罗斯各地区i-voting的因果影响。该假设基于一个理论框架，该框架确定了i-voting如何服务于投票率管理的威权策略——通过有控制的动员、减少强制的可见性和隐蔽操纵的可能性。与最初的预期相反，研究结果显示，虽然是积极的，但i-voting对投票率的影响在统计上并不显著，鲁棒性检验证实了这些结果的可靠性。比起推动投票率的显著上升，i-voting可能在管理投票率方面发挥了更微妙、更稳定的作用，与政府针对历史上投票率较低地区的战略目标保持一致。此外，同样忠诚的选民从线下转移到线上平台，以及某些选民群体的遣散，可能会限制其对提高投票率的影响。这些结果为理解数字技术如何在专制政权中被部署开辟了新的途径，不一定是为了扩大参与，而是为了确保对选举过程的更严格控制。

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引用次数: 0

Fickle loyalties: Intragroup competition in open list elections 易变的忠诚：公开名单选举中的集团内部竞争

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103010

Andrew Saab

Can losses to political allies expose the limits of party loyalty? This study examines how intragroup competition affects candidacy dropout and party disloyalty in Brazilian local elections under open list proportional representation. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that candidates who narrowly lose to political allies—whether from the same party or coalition—are more likely to withdraw from future municipal races, renounce party memberships, and switch party affiliations. These behaviors appear rooted in opportunism: candidates are more likely to defect when their parties fail to convert within-group popularity into electoral office. This effect persists even within stronger and more disciplined parties, although the rates of disaffiliation and switching are comparatively lower. The results also reveal significant geographic variation in the impact of intragroup losses, as well as down-ballot effects: elected mayors reduce dropout and disloyalty among losing candidates from their own parties.

对政治盟友的损失会暴露出对政党忠诚的限度吗？本研究探讨了在开放式比例代表制下的巴西地方选举中，团体内部竞争如何影响候选人退出和政党不忠。使用回归不连续设计，我发现那些以微弱优势输给政治盟友的候选人——无论是来自同一政党还是联盟——更有可能退出未来的市政竞选，放弃党员资格，并改变政党关系。这些行为似乎根植于机会主义：当候选人的政党无法将其在群体内的声望转化为选举职位时，他们更有可能叛逃。即使在更强大、更有纪律的政党中，这种影响也会持续存在，尽管退党和换党的比例相对较低。研究结果还揭示了团体内部损失的影响在地域上的显著差异，以及选票下降效应：当选市长减少了本党失败候选人的退出和不忠行为。

引用次数: 0

Persistent breeze from the winds of change: Partisan alignments of protest participants after democratic transition 变革之风带来的持久微风：民主转型后抗议参与者的党派联盟

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103000

Zeth Isaksson

By the early 1990s, millions across Central and Eastern Europe mobilized against socialist regimes. Despite their pivotal role in democratization, little is known about the long-term political trajectories of those who participated in these movements. Using three decades of intergenerational panel data from the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), I trace the partisan alignments of 1989 protest participants—over time and across generations. I find that former protesters are consistently less likely to support the successor party of the socialist regime (Die Linke) and more likely to support its historical opponent (CDU) as well as the protest-origin party (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen). Crucially, they do not show increased support for the far-right (AfD), despite the party's efforts to appropriate the legacy of 1989. They also display more right-leaning orientations, higher satisfaction with democracy, and substantially less nostalgia for the GDR. Among their children, patterns of partisan alignment—particularly rejection of Die Linke and support for the CDU—are evident only when parents are politically engaged, underscoring the conditional nature of intergenerational transmission. Together, these findings show that protest participants constitute an important segment of the electorate in societies that transitioned through non-violent means and are vital to analyze for understanding political behavior in post-authoritarian settings.

到20世纪90年代初，中欧和东欧数百万人动员起来反对社会主义政权。尽管这些运动在民主化中发挥了关键作用，但人们对参与这些运动的人的长期政治轨迹知之甚少。我发现，以前的抗议者一直不太可能支持社会主义政权的继任者党（左翼党），而更有可能支持其历史对手（基民盟）以及抗议起源党（bndnis 90/Die grnen）。至关重要的是，尽管极右翼政党（AfD）努力继承1989年的政治遗产，但他们并没有显示出对该党的支持有所增加。他们还表现出更多的右倾倾向，对民主的满意度更高，对德意志民主共和国的怀念也少得多。在他们的孩子中，党派结盟的模式——尤其是拒绝德国左翼党和支持基督教民主联盟——只有在父母参与政治时才会明显，这强调了代际传递的条件性质。总之，这些发现表明，在通过非暴力手段过渡的社会中，抗议参与者构成了选民的重要组成部分，对于分析理解后专制环境下的政治行为至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Patterns of regional and local council size 区域和地方议会规模的模式

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103007

Simon Otjes

There is a growing literature that examines how subnational assembly size affects policy outcomes like turnout and women's representation, but also infant mortality and school enrollment. Political scientists know little about what shapes subnational assembly size, however. In this article, I analyse three possible explanations: firstly, building on the work of Taagepera, I propose that population size and assembly size are related: larger populations require greater assemblies following some power relationship. Secondly, I propose that the level of autonomy a subnational entity enjoys may be correlated with the size of the assembly: if a region or municipality has more autonomy, its assembly is likely to be larger. Thirdly, I propose that municipal councils that can determine their own size, will be larger, as representatives seek to ensure re-election. I test these explanations on over 600 regional assemblies in 31 OECD and EU countries and 80,000 municipalities in 31 European countries. I find that population size is the strongest predictor of council size and that the autonomy of the subnational entity is also a significant predictor and that freedom to determine assembly size is not consistently related to assembly size.

越来越多的文献研究了地方议会的规模如何影响投票率和妇女代表等政策结果，以及婴儿死亡率和入学率。然而，政治学家对决定地方议会规模的因素知之甚少。在本文中，我分析了三种可能的解释：首先，基于taagpera的工作，我提出人口规模和集会规模是相关的：在某种权力关系下，更大的人口需要更大的集会。其次，我提出次国家实体享有的自治程度可能与议会的规模有关：如果一个地区或直辖市拥有更多的自治权，其议会可能更大。第三，我建议能够决定其本身规模的市政委员会扩大，因为代表们寻求确保再次当选。我在31个经合组织和欧盟国家的600多个地区议会以及31个欧洲国家的8万个城市对这些解释进行了测试。我发现人口规模是理事会规模的最强预测因子，次国家实体的自治权也是一个重要的预测因子，而决定集会规模的自由并不总是与集会规模相关。

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引用次数: 0

Left parties’ strategies and working-class vote in contemporary Western Europe (2002–2020) 当代西欧左翼政党战略与工人阶级投票（2002-2020）

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103006

Federico Trastulli

What should the left do strategically to retain workers' vote? This paper provides extensive empirical evidence on the relationship between left parties' different programmatic strategies and workers' electoral support in 19 Western European countries over the past 2 decades (2002–2020), focussing on economic and cultural positions, salience, and party-system polarisation. Multilevel analyses of ESS data show that, most of all, working-class respondents' probability of voting for a left party has been significantly higher in contemporary Western Europe when such parties put greater emphasis on cultural issues, regardless of position. The left's engagement with increasingly important cultural matters is rewarded by working-class voters, rather than seen as compromising on its class roots. Whilst this finding applies across left parties, more disaggregated analyses show that support for social democratic parties is considerably more sensitive to different supply-side strategies than support for radical left parties: i.e., both on cultural and economic issues.

左翼应该采取什么策略来保持工人的选票？本文提供了广泛的经验证据，证明过去20年（2002-2020年）19个西欧国家左翼政党的不同纲领战略与工人选举支持之间的关系，重点关注经济和文化地位、突出性和政党制度两极分化。对ESS数据的多层次分析表明，最重要的是，在当代西欧，工人阶级受访者投票给左翼政党的可能性要高得多，因为这些政党更加重视文化问题，而不管立场如何。左翼参与日益重要的文化事务得到了工薪阶层选民的奖励，而不是被视为对其阶级根源的妥协。虽然这一发现适用于所有左翼政党，但更多的分类分析表明，对社会民主党的支持对不同的供给侧策略比对激进左翼政党的支持要敏感得多：即，在文化和经济问题上。

引用次数: 0

Emphasizing or downplaying political ambitions: Exploring the role of candidate gender in shaping voter perceptions 强调或淡化政治野心：探讨候选人性别在塑造选民观念中的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103004

Yuya Endo, Yoshikuni Ono

Do male and female candidates benefit equally from disclosing their political ambition during electoral campaigns? While candidates for elective office are typically ambitious, voters may not reward female candidates to the same extent as male candidates for openly expressing such ambition. This may be because prevalent stereotypes portray women as modest and reserved, potentially clashing with the ostensibly masculine traits associated with political office. To examine this issue, we conducted a vignette experiment in Japan in which we randomly varied a candidate’s gender and stated motivation for seeking office. Our findings reveal that disclosing political ambitions, when framed as a personal choice, benefits both male and female candidates. However, male candidates who openly display ambition are perceived as more popular among the public, whereas female candidates do not receive the same benefit—even though they are rated as equally likable. This subtle disadvantage points to a nuanced gender bias mechanism: rather than stemming from direct voter disapproval, it arises from second-order beliefs that ambitious female candidates are less likely to attract broad voter support. Such perceptions may constrain women’s electoral success, deter them from openly expressing ambition, and reinforce gender disparities in political representation. These results suggest that efforts to reduce gender gaps in political leadership must address not only overt stereotypes but also voters’ perceptions of the electoral viability of ambitious female candidates.

男性和女性候选人在竞选期间公开自己的政治抱负是否同样受益？虽然竞选公职的候选人通常雄心勃勃，但选民可能不会因为女性候选人公开表达这种雄心壮志而给予男性候选人同样的奖励。这可能是因为普遍的刻板印象将女性描绘成谦虚和保守的形象，这可能与与政治职位相关的表面上的男性特征相冲突。为了研究这个问题，我们在日本进行了一个小插曲实验，在这个实验中，我们随机改变了候选人的性别，并陈述了竞选公职的动机。我们的研究结果表明，将政治抱负作为一种个人选择，对男性和女性候选人都有好处。然而，公开表现出雄心壮志的男性候选人被认为更受公众欢迎，而女性候选人却没有得到同样的好处——尽管他们被评为同样讨人喜欢。这种微妙的劣势指出了一种微妙的性别偏见机制：它不是源于选民的直接反对，而是源于二阶信念，即雄心勃勃的女性候选人不太可能吸引广泛的选民支持。这种看法可能限制妇女的选举成功，阻止她们公开表达抱负，并加剧政治代表中的性别差异。这些结果表明，要想缩小政治领导层中的性别差距，不仅要解决公开的刻板印象，还要解决选民对雄心勃勃的女性候选人在选举中的可行性的看法。

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引用次数: 0

Negative partisanship in Western Europe 西欧的消极党派关系

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103001

Luana Russo

We still know little about levels of negative partisanship in Western Europe, what it consists of, how it relates to important key attitudinal variables, and its relation to the radical-right. This paper addresses these open questions, finding that negative partisanship reaches up to 70 %, which is often more prevalent than positive partisanship, and that it is mainly composed of the rejection of a party's worldviews. Positive and negative partisanship strongly predict one another, while political involvement and the salience of one's political identity are significant predictors of both. Also, being on the left of the ideological spectrum is associated with having a negative partisanship. Finally, observing the relationship between the radical-right and negative partisanship, three elements emerge: disliking a PRRP is associated with higher levels of negative partisanship, which is higher on the left side of the ideological left-right continuum, but the relation is curvilinear, and this distribution varies largely across countries.

我们仍然对西欧的消极党派偏见程度知之甚少，它是由什么组成的，它与重要的关键态度变量有何关系，以及它与激进右翼的关系。本文解决了这些悬而未决的问题，发现消极的党派关系高达70%，这通常比积极的党派关系更为普遍，而且它主要由拒绝一个政党的世界观组成。积极和消极的党派之争强烈地相互预测，而政治参与和一个人的政治身份的显著性是两者的重要预测因子。此外，处于意识形态光谱的左翼与消极的党派关系有关。最后，观察激进右翼和消极党派之分之间的关系，可以发现三个因素：不喜欢PRRP与更高水平的消极党派之分有关，在意识形态左右翼连续体的左侧，这种关系更高，但这种关系是曲线的，这种分布在各国之间差异很大。

引用次数: 0

Preaching to the converted: Misinformation and voter preferences in election campaigns 向皈依者说教：竞选活动中的错误信息和选民偏好

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103003

Ursula Daxecker, Neeraj Prasad

Politicians frequently sponsor misinformation during election campaigns, but its effectiveness in shifting voters' policy preferences and beliefs remains unclear. We argue that the efficacy of campaign misinformation depends on whether it latches onto partisan or non-partisan identities. Misinformation that primes non-partisan but politically relevant social identities could appeal to voters sharing these social identities, potentially moving supporters and non-supporters closer to the issue position of the sponsor of misinformation. If, on the other hand, misinformation is processed along partisan lines, it appeals only to existing supporters. Our empirical analysis is based on a pre-registered vignette experiment embedded in a representative post-election survey in India. Our design mimics the opposition's use of campaign misinformation to polarize voters' preferences and beliefs on issues of religion. We find that misinformation was only partly effective. While some co-partisans increased their support of the policy position advocated by the misinformer, messages failed to persuade non-supporters, and were easily corrected among co-partisans. We demonstrate the broader relevance of these results with a replication of campaign misinformation in the United States.

政客们经常在竞选期间赞助虚假信息，但它在改变选民的政策偏好和信仰方面的效果尚不清楚。我们认为，竞选错误信息的有效性取决于它是否锁定了党派或无党派身份。启动无党派但政治上相关的社会身份的错误信息可能会吸引拥有这些社会身份的选民，潜在地使支持者和非支持者更接近错误信息发起者的问题立场。另一方面，如果错误信息是按照党派路线处理的，那么它只会吸引现有的支持者。我们的实证分析是基于一个预先登记的小插曲实验嵌入在一个有代表性的选举后调查在印度。我们的设计模仿了反对派利用竞选错误信息来分化选民在宗教问题上的偏好和信仰。我们发现，错误信息只是部分有效。虽然一些同党人士增加了对错误消息者所主张的政策立场的支持，但这些信息未能说服非支持者，而且很容易在同党人士中得到纠正。我们证明了这些结果与美国竞选错误信息的复制具有更广泛的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Mass higher education and voter turnout in the U.S. 美国大规模的高等教育和选民投票率

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103002

Eric R. Hansen

Have turnout rates in the U.S. risen as more Americans have attained college degrees? Educational attainment is associated with a higher likelihood of voting among individuals, but scholars remain skeptical that increases in mass education levels are associated with higher turnout in populations. I argue that higher rates of college degree attainment not only raise turnout rates among graduates themselves but have positive externalities for turnout in graduates’ communities. To test the relationship at the aggregate level in the U.S., I turn to data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1980 to 2020, when college education rates rose nationwide but at varying rates by state. Under several modeling strategies, I find voter turnout increased most in states where college-educated populations grew most quickly, while turnout held steady in states where educational gains were more modest. Replicating the main findings using county-level data over the same period yields similar conclusions. The results have important implications for studying mass turnout and for efforts to increase participation in the U.S.

随着越来越多的美国人获得大学学位，美国的投票率是否有所上升？受教育程度与个人更高的投票可能性有关，但学者们仍然对大众教育水平的提高与人口投票率的提高有关持怀疑态度。我认为，更高的大学学位获得率不仅提高了毕业生本身的投票率，而且对毕业生所在社区的投票率具有正外部性。为了在美国总体水平上检验这种关系，我查阅了1980年至2020年美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区的数据，当时大学教育率在全国范围内上升，但各州的上升幅度各不相同。根据几种建模策略，我发现在受过大学教育的人口增长最快的州，选民投票率增长最快，而在受教育程度较低的州，投票率保持稳定。使用同一时期的县级数据复制主要发现，得出了类似的结论。研究结果对研究大规模投票率以及提高美国选民参与度的努力具有重要意义

引用次数: 0

The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe 未能实现的向上流动的承诺和对西欧激进左翼政党的支持

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102999

José Pedro Lopes

In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb or pay adequately. As a result, they experience frustration from the unfulfilled promises of upward mobility. In this article, I contend that this experience of incomplete upward mobility is driving support for Radical Left Parties (RLPs) in Europe. Drawing on European Social Survey data, focusing on a sample of 24 RLPs in 15 Western European countries during a 15-year period (2008–2023), I explore how education mobility, class mobility and income interact in explaining radical left support. I find that radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially.

近几十年来，教育的扩张造就了大量的大学毕业生，而劳动力市场越来越无法吸收这些毕业生，也无法支付足够的工资。因此，他们对未能实现向上流动的承诺感到沮丧。在本文中，我认为这种不完全向上流动的经历推动了欧洲激进左翼政党（rlp）的支持。利用欧洲社会调查的数据，重点关注15个西欧国家15年（2008-2023）期间的24个rlp样本，我探讨了教育流动性、阶级流动性和收入如何相互作用，以解释激进左翼的支持。我发现，对于那些学习比父母多、无法实现上层阶级流动的人，以及那些经历了上层阶级流动但仍在经济上挣扎的人，激进左派的支持率会增加。

引用次数: 0

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