Electoral Studies最新文献

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Campaign spending in mixed member proportional systems: How political and institutional context shapes party strategy 混合成员比例制度下的竞选支出：政治和制度背景如何塑造政党战略

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103027

Dominic Nyhuis , Sebastian Block , Morten Harmening , Tilko Swalve

Despite extensive work on local campaign spending, existing research has mostly focused on campaign expenditures in majoritarian systems, while disregarding spending patterns under other institutional arrangements. To help fill this gap, we study how parties allocate their funds in mixed member systems. Based on the notion of contamination between the electoral tiers, we argue that spending is less targeted toward winning the district mandate under mixed electoral rules than would be expected in a pure majoritarian system, as parties stand to benefit from a visible district contender even when they lose the race. Studying candidate survey data collected over the course of four German federal elections between 2009 and 2021, this expectation is confirmed. While the general pattern is evident in all four elections, the shifting political and institutional context of campaigning in Germany has changed party strategies. A more proportional electoral system, along with a more fragmented party system has put a nominal mandate within reach of smaller parties, while larger parties are less sure about winning in their former strongholds, prompting parties to move to more targeted spending on competitive seats.

尽管对地方竞选支出进行了广泛的研究，但现有的研究主要集中在多数制度下的竞选支出，而忽视了其他制度安排下的支出模式。为了帮助填补这一空白，我们研究了各方如何在混合成员制度中分配资金。基于选举层级之间的污染概念，我们认为，在混合选举规则下，支出的目标不是赢得地区授权，而不是在纯粹的多数主义制度下预期的那样，因为政党即使在竞选失败时也会从一个明显的地区竞争者中受益。通过研究2009年至2021年四次德国联邦选举期间收集的候选人调查数据，这一预期得到了证实。虽然四次选举的总体模式都很明显，但德国竞选活动的政治和制度背景的变化改变了政党的战略。一个更加比例化的选举制度，加上一个更加分散的政党制度，使得小党可以获得名义上的授权，而大党则不太确定在他们以前的据点获胜，这促使各政党转向更有针对性的支出来争夺席位。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ‘Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy’ [Elect. Stud. 96 (2025) 1-7 102961] “快乐和光荣？”英国君主政体有时会产生统一的效果。螺柱96 (2025)1-7 [2961]

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103005

Braeden Davis , Yu-Shiuan Huang

引用次数: 0

Applicability of quantitatively predictive logical models at subnational level of governance: Testing the Seat Product Model on Polish, Czech, Hungarian and Slovak regional elections 定量预测逻辑模型在国家以下一级治理中的适用性：对波兰、捷克、匈牙利和斯洛伐克地区选举的席位产品模型进行测试

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103033

Pavel Maškarinec

This paper extends Taagepera's predictive logic (quantitively predictive logical models) to test whether a Seat Product Model derived from national level of governance and based on institutional variables alone – the country's average district magnitude (M) and assembly size (S) – has the same predictive capacity on subnational levels of governance. To address the gap in subnational-level research of quantitively predictive logical models, we test the Seat Product Model on an original new cross-sectional dataset from elections to regional legislatures in four Central European countries (Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia) between 1994 and 2024 (i.e. all elections since the establishment of their respective self-governing regions). We analyse 403 regional elections overall to verify the logical model's capacity to predict the number of seat-winning parties, the seat shares of the largest parties, and the effective number of parties. We find that when confronted with the empirical data, the Seat Product did not reach the same level of accuracy in regional elections as in national elections. However, as the results in some cases were not too far from theoretical expectations (especially after incorporating the temporal dimension, which suggested that electoral system outcomes only tend to align with institutional expectations after several electoral cycles), further research should aim to expand the Seat Product to include the multi-level perspective to control for any effects of the institutional arrangements that exist on the higher (national) level of governance. Indeed, regional party systems are embedded systems and can only be fully understood when broader institutional context is taken into account.

本文对taagpera的预测逻辑（定量预测逻辑模型）进行了扩展，以检验从国家治理水平推导出的、仅基于制度变量——国家平均地区规模(M)和装配规模(S)——的席位产品模型是否对次国家治理水平具有相同的预测能力。为了解决定量预测逻辑模型在次国家级研究中的差距，我们在1994年至2024年（即自各自自治区成立以来的所有选举）四个中欧国家（波兰、捷克、匈牙利、斯洛伐克）的地区立法机构选举的原始新横截面数据集上测试了席位产品模型。我们分析了403个地区的整体选举，以验证逻辑模型预测赢得席位的政党数量、最大政党的席位份额和有效政党数量的能力。我们发现，当面对经验数据时，席位产品在地区选举中没有达到与全国选举相同的准确性水平。然而，由于某些情况下的结果与理论预期相差不大（特别是在纳入时间维度之后，这表明选举制度的结果只有在几个选举周期之后才倾向于与制度预期一致），进一步的研究应旨在扩大席位产品，包括多层次的视角，以控制存在于更高（国家）治理层面的制度安排的任何影响。事实上，区域政党制度是嵌入式系统，只有在考虑到更广泛的制度背景时才能充分理解。

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引用次数: 0

Political violence and invalid voting: A case study 政治暴力与无效投票：个案研究

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103025

Abelardo Gómez Díaz

This study explores the extent to which political violence influences levels of invalid voting, a common form of electoral protest. It also explores the extent to which this relationship is consistent across different levels of electoral competitiveness. With a focus on Mexico, this study relies on a sample of over 2000 municipalities across three consecutive elections. The results from a time-series cross-sectional analysis show that (1) political violence is strongly associated with an increase in invalid voting, and that (2) invalid voting is more likely in violent but competitive electoral environments, where voters can make their protest ‘count.’ These results contribute to a broader understanding of electoral behaviour in violent contexts and underscores the role of electoral competitiveness in shaping the impact of political violence on voter behaviour.

本研究探讨政治暴力对无效投票（一种常见的选举抗议形式）水平的影响程度。它还探讨了这种关系在不同水平的选举竞争力中是一致的程度。本研究以墨西哥为重点，以连续三次选举的2000多个城市为样本。时间序列横断面分析的结果显示：(1)政治暴力与无效投票的增加密切相关；(2)在暴力但竞争的选举环境中，无效投票更有可能发生，选民可以使他们的抗议“起作用”。“这些结果有助于更广泛地理解暴力背景下的选举行为，并强调了选举竞争力在塑造政治暴力对选民行为的影响方面的作用。”

引用次数: 0

Amplifying the message? The effect of endorsements in primary elections 放大信息？支持在初选中的作用

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103020

Alessio Albarello , Mayya Komisarchik

Voters face difficult choices in primary elections. Partisan cues are typically uninformative, the number of potentially viable candidates may be large, and detailed information about candidates' policy views or competence may be scarce. Endorsements, particularly those coming from high profile party elites, can provide voters with useful heuristics that help them make their choices. Yet little is known about how voters understand different types of endorsements in primary elections. We fill this gap with a study conducted during the 2020 Democratic primaries where we causally isolate the distinct impact of policy and electability endorsements. We find that endorsements based on policy issues raise support for candidates by 13 percentage points and endorsements emphasizing electability raise support for candidates by 15 percentage points. The results demonstrate that primary election endorsements that invoke policy or electability can influence vote choice and ultimately outcomes.

选民在初选中面临艰难的选择。党派线索通常不具有信息性，潜在候选人的数量可能很大，关于候选人的政策观点或能力的详细信息可能很少。支持，尤其是那些来自知名政党精英的支持，可以为选民提供有用的启发，帮助他们做出选择。然而，对于选民如何理解初选中不同类型的支持，我们知之甚少。我们通过在2020年民主党初选期间进行的一项研究填补了这一空白，在该研究中，我们偶然地隔离了政策和可选性支持的明显影响。我们发现，基于政策问题的支持使候选人的支持率提高了13个百分点，强调可选性的支持使候选人的支持率提高了15个百分点。结果表明，初选支持援引政策或可选性可以影响投票选择和最终结果。

引用次数: 0

Persistent breeze from the winds of change: Partisan alignments of protest participants after democratic transition 变革之风带来的持久微风：民主转型后抗议参与者的党派联盟

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103000

Zeth Isaksson

By the early 1990s, millions across Central and Eastern Europe mobilized against socialist regimes. Despite their pivotal role in democratization, little is known about the long-term political trajectories of those who participated in these movements. Using three decades of intergenerational panel data from the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), I trace the partisan alignments of 1989 protest participants—over time and across generations. I find that former protesters are consistently less likely to support the successor party of the socialist regime (Die Linke) and more likely to support its historical opponent (CDU) as well as the protest-origin party (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen). Crucially, they do not show increased support for the far-right (AfD), despite the party's efforts to appropriate the legacy of 1989. They also display more right-leaning orientations, higher satisfaction with democracy, and substantially less nostalgia for the GDR. Among their children, patterns of partisan alignment—particularly rejection of Die Linke and support for the CDU—are evident only when parents are politically engaged, underscoring the conditional nature of intergenerational transmission. Together, these findings show that protest participants constitute an important segment of the electorate in societies that transitioned through non-violent means and are vital to analyze for understanding political behavior in post-authoritarian settings.

到20世纪90年代初，中欧和东欧数百万人动员起来反对社会主义政权。尽管这些运动在民主化中发挥了关键作用，但人们对参与这些运动的人的长期政治轨迹知之甚少。我发现，以前的抗议者一直不太可能支持社会主义政权的继任者党（左翼党），而更有可能支持其历史对手（基民盟）以及抗议起源党（bndnis 90/Die grnen）。至关重要的是，尽管极右翼政党（AfD）努力继承1989年的政治遗产，但他们并没有显示出对该党的支持有所增加。他们还表现出更多的右倾倾向，对民主的满意度更高，对德意志民主共和国的怀念也少得多。在他们的孩子中，党派结盟的模式——尤其是拒绝德国左翼党和支持基督教民主联盟——只有在父母参与政治时才会明显，这强调了代际传递的条件性质。总之，这些发现表明，在通过非暴力手段过渡的社会中，抗议参与者构成了选民的重要组成部分，对于分析理解后专制环境下的政治行为至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Facts Speak Louder? Comparing the attention effects of moral and factual framing of political issues 事实更响亮？比较政治问题的道德框架和事实框架的注意效果

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102996

Michal Tóth , Tadeáš Celý , Roman Chytilek

The media and political actors play a crucial role in shaping public attention, not only by selecting which issues to highlight but also by framing them in ways that influence public perception and engagement. Given the increasing prominence of moralized discourse in political communication, we examine whether moral framing is more effective in capturing public attention compared to factual framing, which relies on empirical evidence and rational argumentation. To examine this question, we conducted two preregistered experimental studies using different methods to measure attention: an eye-tracking experiment (N = 99) and a large-scale online survey (N = 1563). Participants were exposed to political issues that are not predominantly associated with either type of framing and were randomly assigned to conditions where the issues were framed either morally or factually. Our findings indicate that moral framing does not consistently attract more attention than factual framing. In fact, in some situations, factual frames were associated with slightly higher levels of audience attention. Understanding these dynamics is crucial in an age of information overload, when competition for public attention is intense and public debate is often dominated by emotional or value-driven messages. Additionally, our research contributes to ongoing debates about the implications of moral framing, particularly its potential to polarize audiences or divert attention from evidence-based decision-making.

媒体和政治行为者在塑造公众注意力方面发挥着至关重要的作用，不仅通过选择突出哪些问题，而且通过以影响公众看法和参与的方式构建这些问题。鉴于道德话语在政治传播中的日益突出，我们研究了道德框架是否比事实框架更有效地吸引公众注意力，事实框架依赖于经验证据和理性论证。为了研究这个问题，我们进行了两项预先注册的实验研究，使用不同的方法来测量注意力：一项眼球追踪实验（N = 99）和一项大规模在线调查（N = 1563）。参与者接触到的政治问题与这两种框架都不主要相关，并被随机分配到问题被道德或事实框架的条件下。我们的研究结果表明，道德框架并不总是比事实框架吸引更多的注意力。事实上，在某些情况下，事实框架与观众的注意力水平略有提高有关。在信息超载的时代，理解这些动态是至关重要的，因为争夺公众注意力的竞争非常激烈，公众辩论往往被情感或价值驱动的信息所主导。此外，我们的研究有助于对道德框架影响的持续争论，特别是它可能使受众两极分化或转移对循证决策的注意力。

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引用次数: 0

Learning to vote in democratic and authoritarian elections 学习在民主和专制选举中投票

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102985

Anja Neundorf , Ksenia Northmore-Ball

High turnout levels are key to legitimacy in new democracies, ultimately contributing to their consolidation. However, little is known about the determinants of long-term electoral participation and how the legacies of authoritarian and democratic elections compare. To investigate these individual-level legacies, we rely on socialization and institutional theories of turnout, which have not been tested in authoritarian settings. We rely on newly harmonized public opinion data covering over 106 countries from 1975 to 2016 to estimate generational differences in propensity to vote. Leveraging within-country variation, we confirm the positive effects of early opportunities on turnout later in life. Generations of voters who experienced their formative years in authoritarian contexts without national elections are less likely to take up opportunities to vote later in life than those with some formative experience of elections, even uncompetitive ones. However, experiencing high numbers of uncompetitive elections, typical in authoritarian elections, can jade voters.

高投票率是新兴民主国家合法性的关键，最终有助于民主国家的巩固。然而，人们对长期选举参与的决定因素以及威权选举和民主选举的遗产如何比较知之甚少。为了研究这些个人层面的遗产，我们依赖于投票率的社会化和制度理论，这些理论尚未在威权环境中得到检验。我们依靠最新统一的民意数据，涵盖了超过106个国家，从1975年到2016年，来估计投票倾向的代际差异。利用国家内部的差异，我们证实了早期机会对以后生活中的投票率的积极影响。那些在没有全国大选的威权主义背景下经历成长期的几代选民，在以后的生活中不太可能抓住机会投票，而那些有过一些选举成长期经历的人，即使是没有竞争的选举。然而，经历大量的非竞争性选举（典型的专制选举）可能会削弱选民。

引用次数: 0

Negative partisanship in Western Europe 西欧的消极党派关系

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103001

Luana Russo

We still know little about levels of negative partisanship in Western Europe, what it consists of, how it relates to important key attitudinal variables, and its relation to the radical-right. This paper addresses these open questions, finding that negative partisanship reaches up to 70 %, which is often more prevalent than positive partisanship, and that it is mainly composed of the rejection of a party's worldviews. Positive and negative partisanship strongly predict one another, while political involvement and the salience of one's political identity are significant predictors of both. Also, being on the left of the ideological spectrum is associated with having a negative partisanship. Finally, observing the relationship between the radical-right and negative partisanship, three elements emerge: disliking a PRRP is associated with higher levels of negative partisanship, which is higher on the left side of the ideological left-right continuum, but the relation is curvilinear, and this distribution varies largely across countries.

我们仍然对西欧的消极党派偏见程度知之甚少，它是由什么组成的，它与重要的关键态度变量有何关系，以及它与激进右翼的关系。本文解决了这些悬而未决的问题，发现消极的党派关系高达70%，这通常比积极的党派关系更为普遍，而且它主要由拒绝一个政党的世界观组成。积极和消极的党派之争强烈地相互预测，而政治参与和一个人的政治身份的显著性是两者的重要预测因子。此外，处于意识形态光谱的左翼与消极的党派关系有关。最后，观察激进右翼和消极党派之分之间的关系，可以发现三个因素：不喜欢PRRP与更高水平的消极党派之分有关，在意识形态左右翼连续体的左侧，这种关系更高，但这种关系是曲线的，这种分布在各国之间差异很大。

引用次数: 0

Mass higher education and voter turnout in the U.S. 美国大规模的高等教育和选民投票率

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103002

Eric R. Hansen

Have turnout rates in the U.S. risen as more Americans have attained college degrees? Educational attainment is associated with a higher likelihood of voting among individuals, but scholars remain skeptical that increases in mass education levels are associated with higher turnout in populations. I argue that higher rates of college degree attainment not only raise turnout rates among graduates themselves but have positive externalities for turnout in graduates’ communities. To test the relationship at the aggregate level in the U.S., I turn to data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1980 to 2020, when college education rates rose nationwide but at varying rates by state. Under several modeling strategies, I find voter turnout increased most in states where college-educated populations grew most quickly, while turnout held steady in states where educational gains were more modest. Replicating the main findings using county-level data over the same period yields similar conclusions. The results have important implications for studying mass turnout and for efforts to increase participation in the U.S.

随着越来越多的美国人获得大学学位，美国的投票率是否有所上升？受教育程度与个人更高的投票可能性有关，但学者们仍然对大众教育水平的提高与人口投票率的提高有关持怀疑态度。我认为，更高的大学学位获得率不仅提高了毕业生本身的投票率，而且对毕业生所在社区的投票率具有正外部性。为了在美国总体水平上检验这种关系，我查阅了1980年至2020年美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区的数据，当时大学教育率在全国范围内上升，但各州的上升幅度各不相同。根据几种建模策略，我发现在受过大学教育的人口增长最快的州，选民投票率增长最快，而在受教育程度较低的州，投票率保持稳定。使用同一时期的县级数据复制主要发现，得出了类似的结论。研究结果对研究大规模投票率以及提高美国选民参与度的努力具有重要意义

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