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Assembly dissolution powers and incumbency advantages in coalition formation 联合政府组建中的议会解散权和在职优势
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2023.2165356
Petra Schleiter, C. Bucur
Abstract Are dominant governing parties with discretion to call early elections better able to negotiate their return to office? Dominant incumbents in parliamentary democracies sometimes have extensive powers to dissolve parliament, which enables them to affect coalition bargaining. Yet, whether these powers advantage them in forming the next coalition remains poorly understood. To address this gap, this article develops a theory of coalition formation in the shadow of parliamentary dissolution. Incumbents who can dissolve the assembly, it argues, are more likely to return to government than their peers who lack this power because they enjoy greater bargaining leverage and reputational advantages in coalition formation. The article tests this expectation using mixed and conditional logistic regression analysis of data on 631 government formation opportunities and 433,401 potential coalitions and finds that coalition leaders with discretion to dissolve parliament secure significant advantages in negotiating their return to power.
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引用次数: 2
The mobilisation potential of anti-containment protests in Germany 德国反遏制抗议的动员潜力
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-30 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2023.2166728
Sophia Hunger, Swen Hutter, Eylem Kanol
Abstract The Covid-19 pandemic triggered polarisation across Europe. While most citizens supported governments’ containment measures, others took to the streets and voiced their dissatisfaction. The article focuses on the mobilisation potential related to this heterogenous protest wave. It examines individuals that show sympathy and are willing to engage in anti-containment demonstrations based on 16 waves of a rolling cross-section survey fielded in Germany in 2020/2021. The results show a considerable and stable mobilisation potential: every fifth respondent sympathises with the protesters, and around 60% of those are ready to participate themselves. Political distrust, far-right orientations and an emerging ‘freedom divide’ structure the potential, as do Covid-19-related economic and health threats. Moreover, the findings indicate a radicalisation process and show how ideology and threat perceptions drive the step from sympathy to willingness to participate, suggesting that ideological polarisation may quickly spill over to the streets given an appropriate supply of protest opportunities.
摘要新冠肺炎大流行引发了整个欧洲的两极分化。虽然大多数公民支持政府的遏制措施,但其他人走上街头表达了他们的不满。这篇文章关注的是与这种异质性抗议浪潮相关的动员潜力。它根据2020/2021年在德国进行的16波滚动横截面调查,调查了表现出同情并愿意参与反遏制示威的个人。结果显示,有相当大且稳定的动员潜力:每五分之一的受访者都同情抗议者,其中约60%的人准备亲自参与。政治不信任、极右倾向和新出现的“自由鸿沟”构成了潜在的结构,与新冠肺炎相关的经济和健康威胁也是如此。此外,研究结果表明了一个激进化过程,并显示了意识形态和威胁感知如何推动从同情到参与意愿的转变,这表明如果有适当的抗议机会,意识形态两极分化可能会迅速蔓延到街头。
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引用次数: 9
Weaponisation of finance: the role of European central banks and financial sanctions against Russia 金融武器化:欧洲央行的作用和对俄罗斯的金融制裁
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-27 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2155906
L. Quaglia, A. Verdun
Abstract In response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Group of Seven (G7) countries and the European Union (EU) adopted a variety of financial sanctions, including the freezing of foreign reserve assets of the Central Bank of Russia held by other central banks. Drawing on a Principal-Agent framework and on speeches, newspaper articles and interviews with policy-makers, this study examines what it means for the ECB and the central banks of the Eurosystem to be involved in these sanctions. As a consequence of these actions, these central banks have been enlisted in monetary and financial warfare. Moreover, the three-fold objective of the ECB has de facto effectively been reweighted somewhat, as the focus on ‘price stability’ (primary objective) has become seemingly temporarily less prominent. Instead, the secondary and tertiary objectives have moved centre-stage, favouring geopolitical considerations.
摘要为了应对俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面入侵,七国集团和欧盟采取了各种金融制裁措施,包括冻结其他央行持有的俄罗斯中央银行外汇储备资产。根据委托代理框架以及演讲、报纸文章和对政策制定者的采访,本研究考察了欧洲央行和欧元体系央行参与这些制裁意味着什么。由于这些行动,这些央行被卷入了货币和金融战争。此外,欧洲央行的三重目标实际上已经在一定程度上被重新加权,因为对“价格稳定”(主要目标)的关注似乎暂时不那么突出。相反,第二和第三目标转移到了中心位置,有利于地缘政治考虑。
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引用次数: 2
Institutional accountability: the differentiated implementation of collaborative governance in two EU states 制度问责:两个欧盟国家协作治理的差异化实施
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-27 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2158639
I. Mancheva, M. Pihlajamäki, M. Keskinen
Abstract Governments increasingly apply collaborative governance based on deliberation that typically takes place in non-majoritarian institutions. However, collaborative institutions face accountability challenges depending on their institutional design. Still, empirical research is missing on the different choices member states make when designing collaborative institutions implementing European Union (EU) political goals. Using four theoretical principles of accountability, the study compares how Finland and Sweden implement the requirements for collaborative governance of two EU directives in national legislation and management plans. While Finland has provided more detailed and stricter rules resulting in higher process accountability, Sweden has delegated final decision making to authorities, achieving a higher degree of institutional independence. The results reveal that since the directives set only some of the key rules and procedures needed for achieving accountable collaborative institutions, member states’ discretion can lead to institutional variation even in similar governance contexts, resulting in differing institutional accountability and legitimacy of EU policies.
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引用次数: 2
Coalition agreements and governments’ policy-making productivity 联盟协议与政府的决策效率
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-23 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2161794
Matthew E. Bergman, Mariyana Angelova, H. Bäck, W. Müller
Abstract One of the biggest challenges parties in multiparty governments face is making policies together and overcoming the risk of a policy stalemate. Scholars have devoted much attention to the study of how various institutions in cabinet and parliament help coalition parties with conflicting policy preferences to be efficient in the policy-making process. Coalition agreements are one of many instruments coalition partners can use to facilitate policy making. However, many scholars describe such agreements’ actual role as cheap talk, due to their legally non-enforceable nature. Do coalition agreements make a difference in the policy-making productivity of multiparty governments? To address this question, this article focuses on governments’ policy output and investigates whether coalition agreements increase the policy-making productivity of multiparty cabinets. Its central argument is that written agreements between coalition partners strengthen the capacity of coalition governments to make policy reforms, even when there is a high degree of ideological conflict among partners. To evaluate this argument, the article analyzes data on economic reform measures adopted by national governments in 11 Western European countries over a 40-year period (1978–2017), based on a coding of more than 1000 periodical country reports issued by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The results show that while coalition agreements foster policy productivity in minimal winning cabinets, they play a weaker role in minority and surplus governments. Coalition agreements limit the negative effect of intra-cabinet ideological conflict on reform productivity, suggesting that such contracts help parties overcome the risk of policy stalemate.
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引用次数: 2
Exiting after Brexit: public perceptions of future European Union member state departures. 英国脱欧后退出:公众对未来欧盟成员国退出的看法
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-23 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2164135
Joseph Ganderson

Public opinion scholarship suggests that Europeans broadly interpret Brexit as a cautionary fable rather than an encouraging blueprint to follow. Yet, Brexit singularly demonstrates the possibility of European disintegration, and is but one of multiple recent crises that have brought the potential for member state departures into focus. Drawing on new survey data from 16 countries and using logistic regressions, this article charts Europeans' perceptions of the likelihood future EU exits over the next decade. It finds evidence of asymmetric motivated reasoning: Euroscepticism and pro-Brexit views strongly associate with perceiving exits likely, while among Europhiles this association is only ameliorated, not reversed. This reveals two gaps with repercussions for understanding EU public opinion dynamics. First, between Eurosceptic policy elites' softened policy stances on exit and their supporters' steadfast sense that further departures remain likely. Second, between Europhiles' scepticism of Brexit and a residual lack of confidence in EU cohesion.

舆论研究表明,欧洲人普遍认为英国脱欧是一则警世寓言,而非令人鼓舞的可循蓝图。然而,英国脱欧恰恰证明了欧洲解体的可能性,而英国脱欧不过是近期使成员国脱离欧洲的可能性成为焦点的多重危机之一。本文利用来自 16 个国家的最新调查数据,通过逻辑回归,描绘了欧洲人对未来十年欧盟退出可能性的看法。文章发现了非对称动机推理的证据:欧洲怀疑论和支持英国脱欧的观点与认为欧盟可能退欧的观点密切相关,而在 "欧洲迷"(Europhiles)中,这种关联只是有所改善,而不是逆转。这揭示了两个差距,对理解欧盟舆论动态产生了影响。首先,欧洲怀疑论政策精英在退欧问题上的政策立场有所缓和,而他们的支持者则坚定地认为进一步退欧仍有可能。其次,疑欧派对英国脱欧的怀疑与对欧盟凝聚力仍然缺乏信心之间的差距。
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引用次数: 0
Cleavage politics, polarisation and participation in Western Europe 西欧的分裂政治、两极分化和参与
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-19 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2161786
Endre Borbáth, Swen Hutter, A. Leininger
Abstract Polarisation over cultural issues and the emergence of radical, often populist, challenger parties indicate a fundamental restructuring of political conflict in Western Europe. The emerging divide crosscuts and, in part, reshapes older cleavages. This special issue introduction highlights how the transformation of cleavage structures relates to the dynamics of polarisation and political participation. The contributions to the special issue innovate in two ways. First, they adapt concepts and measures of ideological and affective polarisation to the context of Europe’s multi-party and multi-dimensional party competition. Second, they emphasise electoral and protest politics, examining how ideological and affective polarisation shape electoral and non-electoral participation. Apart from introducing the contributions, the introduction combines different datasets – the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the European Social Survey – to sketch an empirical picture of differentiated polarisation with types of polarisation only weakly associated cross-arena, cross-nationally and over time.
摘要文化问题上的两极分化,以及激进的、往往是民粹主义的挑战者政党的出现,表明西欧政治冲突正在进行根本性的重组。新出现的分水岭横切并在一定程度上重塑了较老的裂缝。本期特刊介绍强调了分裂结构的转变与两极分化和政治参与的动态之间的关系。对特刊的贡献有两个方面的创新。首先,他们将意识形态和情感两极分化的概念和措施适应欧洲多党和多维度政党竞争的背景。其次,他们强调选举和抗议政治,研究意识形态和情感两极分化如何影响选举和非选举参与。除了介绍贡献外,引言还结合了不同的数据集——教堂山专家调查、选举制度比较研究和欧洲社会调查——描绘了一幅有差异的两极分化的经验图,两极分化的类型仅与跨领域、跨国家和随时间的推移弱相关。
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引用次数: 3
The formalisation of minority governments 少数民族政府的形式化
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-17 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2157994
Maria Thürk, S. Krauss
Abstract The vast majority of elections in parliamentary systems result in minority situations. During cabinet formation, parties have three options: building a winning coalition, a genuine substantive minority cabinet without support, or a formal minority with institutionalised long-term support partnerships. Even though the use of permanent support partners has increased substantially, there is still comparatively little knowledge about the circumstances under which parties choose to enter such formalised support partnerships instead of winning coalitions. This article aims to close this gap by analysing how the party system, the institutional configuration, as well as the bargaining environment influence which cabinet type forms. The dataset includes 469 cabinets from 27 Eastern and Western European countries between 1970 and 2019. The hypotheses are tested with the help of multinomial model estimations. While only few of the traditional explanations can explain the formation of formal minority cabinets, the results show that there is a time-trend towards more formalisation.
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引用次数: 2
Differentiated participation, uniform procedures: EU agencies in direct policy implementation 差别参与、统一程序:欧盟各机构直接参与政策执行
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-16 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2161727
Adina Akbik, C. Freudlsperger, M. Migliorati
Abstract European Union (EU) institutions have become increasingly involved in direct policy implementation in the member states, creating a new domain of differentiation in EU governance. What brings about such differentiation, and how does it vary across policy fields? Drawing on theories of differentiated integration, this article argues that differentiated implementation occurs at the intersection of postfunctional obstacles (politicisation) and functional pressures for joint implementation (interdependence). There are two identified dimensions of direct implementation, a territorial one referring to states’ participation in such activities, and a procedural one capturing the degree of uniformity in the guidelines for organising implementation. The resulting typology is applied to direct implementation activities (DIAs) conducted by EU agencies alongside national authorities. The qualitative analysis reveals that differentiated participation is a stable feature of DIAs in politicised fields, and although there is a tendency to create more uniform procedures over time and across policy fields, higher uniformity prevails under symmetric interdependence.
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引用次数: 1
Kinder, gentler – and crisis-proof? Consensus democracy, inclusive institutions and COVID-19 pandemic performance 更友善、更温和、更能抵御危机?共识民主、包容性机构与新冠肺炎疫情表现
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-16 DOI: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2156164
Rahel Freiburghaus, A. Vatter, Isabelle Stadelmann‐Steffen
Abstract Which patterns of democracy perform best? Although a decades-long research tradition has fairly robustly suggested that consensual democracies outperform their Westminster-style majoritarian counterparts, the scope of previous studies has been limited to ‘normal times’. In this article, the endogenous context of the COVID-19 pandemic is leveraged to study whether the alleged superiority of consensualism also holds during crises. It is hypothesised that, in addition to consensus democracy, inclusive institutions – i.e. cabinet size and interest-group corporatism – enhance crisis-related performance. Drawing on new and original data, cross-sectional and hierarchical time-series regression analyses show that horizontal power-sharing and the number of ministers substantively reduced excess mortality, while the structure of the interest-group system had no effect. Although established consensus democracies can draw on their built-in institutional assets even during crises, our findings indicate that majoritarian systems may, as a compensatory performance-enhancing tool, flexibly gear up for crisis-induced necessities by adding more ministers to the cabinet.
摘要哪种民主模式表现最好?尽管几十年来的研究传统相当有力地表明,协商一致的民主国家优于威斯敏斯特式的多数派民主国家,但之前的研究范围仅限于“正常时期”。在这篇文章中,新冠肺炎大流行的内生背景被用来研究所谓的共识优越性是否也适用于危机期间。据推测,除了共识民主之外,包容性机构——即内阁规模和利益集团社团主义——还能提高危机相关绩效。根据新的和原始的数据,横截面和分层时间序列回归分析表明,横向权力分享和部长人数大大降低了超额死亡率,而利益集团体系的结构没有影响。尽管既定的共识民主国家即使在危机期间也可以利用其固有的制度资产,但我们的研究结果表明,多数派制度作为一种补偿性的绩效提升工具,可以通过在内阁中增加更多部长来灵活应对危机引发的必要性。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
West European Politics
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