Futures最新文献

Futures Consciousness (FC) describes the human capacity to understand, anticipate, prepare for and embrace the future. Differences in FC between individuals (as a psychological construct) can be reliably measured quantitatively with the Futures Consciousness scale. However, the FC scale is only suitable for the adult population. Based on the contention that Futures Consciousness emerges at a younger age, we endeavour to develop and validate an adapted version of the FC scale that is suitable for adolescents (aged 11–18). This paper presents the statistical analyses that led to the validation of a 15-item instrument, the FC-Adolescent scale. Data from N = 1138 adolescents from five countries allowed us to validate the scale in four languages (English, Dutch, Italian, and Turkish) through a dual approach of confirmatory factor analyses and ant colony optimisation item-sampling procedure. The results show that the five-dimensional structure of FC also holds for adolescents and that it can be measured with the scale developed here. Interestingly, we found no correlation between FC and age in the range of 11–18 years old. We discuss implications for research and potential applications for educators and foresight practitioners.

The purpose of this paper is to suggest that mapping of archetype scenarios onto the three horizons could provide a useful starting point for understanding change in a domain. It was observed in practice that the combination of a scenario archetype technique and the Three Horizons framework seemed to generate a useful pattern in the relative importance of the archetype scenarios according to the time horizon. In short, a baseline archetype seemed to be most prevalent in Horizon 1, either a Collapse or New Equilibrium archetype in Horizon 2, and a Transformation in H3. To test this idea, 78 historical scenario sets conducive to the archetype technique were identified, and the proposed pattern was tested against the how the domains actually unfolded over time. The results indeed suggested some evidence for the pattern. They also raised a series of interesting research questions for the futures community going forward.

Strong longtermism maintains that how we should act morally is determined almost entirely by the expected effects on the welfare of our descendants existing thousands if not millions of years into the future, who might include both other humans and any artificial agents with a comparable or higher moral status that we end up creating. It is based on three key assumptions: (i) that our descendants will have a moral status that is at least as high as ours and therefore should not have their welfare discounted by us; (ii) that there is a good chance that these individuals will vastly outnumber us; and (iii) that we can do things here and now that can be expected to positively shape the long-term trajectory of humanity. The aim of this contribution is to suggest that authors such as Will MacAskill and Hilary Greaves have been too optimistic about all these assumptions as a result of having ignored evidence that the populations of post-industrial countries are becoming less intelligent due mostly to the negative relationship that has emerged within these societies between intelligence and fertility and to the proclivity of intelligent people to delay parenthood.

Based on the critical debates in urban theory, political ecology and urban political ecology literature, this article interrogates the potentialities and limitations of degrowth/post-growth planning, regarding relational, non-dualistic and multi-scalar spatialization of nature conservation. It firstly reveals that pragmatic, technoscientific and “sustainable/ecological urbanism” and market-based nature conservation it incorporates exacerbate socio-ecological crises and socio-spatial inequalities in and beyond cities under the conditions of planetary urbanisation. Second, it interrogates how new market-based nature conservation turned into 'green-grabbing' and primitive accumulation. Having explored the degrowth or post-growth approach in relation to other radical nature conservation approaches (e.g., convivial conservation and global safety network), it interrogates the ways in which post-growth planning deals with socio-spatial aspects of nature conservation. It takes the “degrowth/ post-growth planning” both as an instrument to spatialize radical nature conservation and as an approach addressing socio-ecological injustices and inequalities intersecting at multiple scales. It concludes that the degrowth/ post-growth planning can overcome its limitations and advance its potentialities, drawing from already existing radical conservation and critical approaches in neighbouring disciplines as well as the discipline itself.

The world is increasingly characterized by a paradigm of interconnectivity within a complex system, so that impact to any single element or location is likely to cause unanticipated, unequal, and disruptive impacts elsewhere. As society has become more complex, the intractable problems of our global community have also become complex, interconnected, dynamic and nonlinear. Potential solutions to complex global issues will not be identifiable through efforts associated with any single discipline. Boundary-spanning collaborations and collective action are required to create the necessary paradigm shifts. In response to this need, this paper presents a transdisciplinary framework designed to blend different knowledges and resources via a non-hierarchical, self-organizing collaboration. This boundary-spanning process fosters the integration of diverse scholarly expertise, artistic expression and lived experiences to engage broad audiences in knowledge exchange. As illustration, a virtual art + science exhibition produced during the COVID-19 pandemic, Long COVID: We Are Here! is examined. The exhibition, co-created by six artists and six scientists, curated multiple voices, skills, talents and artefacts to explore perspectives of an emerging global health and social problem. This paper scrutinizes the design process, production, and outcomes of the exhibition as a model for engaging with complexity, at multiple scales; as a method of knowledge sharing and new knowledge creation, of disseminating empirical knowledge to a broad audience, and for enabling and catalyzing transformative and sustainable pathways for social change.

This paper draws on biosemiotics to reflect on the role that scientific inquiry plays in generating (useful) inputs to the process of decision making. In particular, the social theory of Luhmann is used to postulate that the formation of society’s identity requires the effective integration of two interrelated processes: (1) self-organization, a biophysical process that requires guided interactions based on effective rules (physical or tangible perspective), and (2) self-referential autopoiesis, a socio-psychological process that demands a communication process capable of preserving shared values (notional or abstract perspective). Rules are based on explanation narratives that are useful for improving interactions. Values are based on the emergence of societal myths and socio-technical imaginaries that fuel the concerns requiring collective action. It is argued that in the process of decision-making, rules (stored in a common memory) and values (generated by the psychic structure) affect each other in an impredicative way. The reproduction and updating of a given identity of society therefore would require a systemic quality check on the whole process of production and use of scientific information for decision-making, and hence a negotiation based on a mix of technical, moral, political, and ethical issues.

This paper reports a new method based on a Delphi process to nudge responses of participants toward consistency in an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) study. We hypothesized that data collected during an early round of an AHP study could establish ranges of answers for later rounds that would improve consistency of responses. In our design, the Delphi method provided an effective framework for feedback of the bounds calculated between rounds. Using Delphi within the AHP to nudge answers of experts toward answers that promote consistency was the focus of our method. We propose an application using four mini scenarios depicting alternate futures for the management of genetic modification technologies. We found that in most instances our nudges improved the consistency of responses in sequential Delphi rounds; however, in some instances, the Delphi suggestions of bounds were not followed by a sufficient number of participants and a small number of inconsistencies remained. The value of this work may be in its warning to other researchers who attempt to achieve consistency by nudging responses in a paired comparison AHP study, to be quite explicit in instructions about remaining within the given bounds and perhaps creating incentives for respondents to do so.

This paper proposes a flexible methodology for ecosystem assessment oriented to climate-change adaptation and mitigation policies focused on ecosystem protection. This analysis is based on a methodology developed at the European level which is adapted and applied in a specific Spanish context, providing a practical application that can be replicated in other European contexts after cartographic adaptation. The novelty of the proposed method is the inclusion of ecosystem assessment for land use planning as an element to consider when justifying the reasons for land protection. It involves three main steps. The first step introduces the spatial information of the different ecosystems of the study area, including the identification of ecosystem services (ES) and the capacity of the different ecosystems to provide them. The second step proposes the ecosystem assessment methodology at the regional and local planning scale based on the Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) project. The third step concerns the evaluation of the expected impacts on the ecosystems due to land-use-planning-related development trajectories to depict the possible negative consequences on ES. Such results show how the integration of ES assessments into land use planning tools could motivate land protection through providing evidence information on ecosystem risks, ES loss, or both.

In the face of abundant signs that we are on the brink of ecological collapse, exploring alternatives to production and consumption based on wasteful socio-economic relations is imperative. This article aims to identify and discuss alternative ways of acting in the present whilst envisioning different conceptions of futures beyond those engendered within capitalism. We look at the consolidation process of an idea of a singular universal way of existing and how it hinders different worldviews and conceptions of futures. The role of power structures and agencies is also observed, considering how different theoretical traditions deal with vulnerabilities and uncertainties while imagining and building alternative futures. The analysis draws on a conceptual model in which utopia, desire and hope emerge as symbolic resources that encourage social transformation. Based on the literature, experiences from different geographical locations illustrate the role of utopia, desire, and hope in building alternatives that move away from, when not resisting, hegemonic models of living. Despite the diversity of experiences, a common feature binds them: an inclination towards commoning. This stance is crucial to reimagine future horizons capable of challenging and deconstructing hegemonic worldviews.

Smart grids are proposed to enable the integration of renewables and facilitate the energy transition. Households have been pointed out as a significant resource for demand response, that is to adapt their electricity consumption based on the status in the grid. This article analyses narrative mismatches in the context of smart grid implementation in Sweden. We compare policy narratives on the role of homes in the future energy system with home personas, emerging from interviews with households. The policy narratives envision households to become either actively engaged in time-shifting motivated by information and incentives, or bypassed through automation. The home personas, although seemingly similar, show great diversity, being well informed about their electricity use, concerned regarding the safety of technology, preferring to manage flexibility themselves, and reluctant to give up control. Several dissonances are identified between narratives and the home personas regarding smart meter communication, energy awareness, trust, agency, and control, that need further attention for demand response to be realised. The analysis illustrates how policy visions of the home in the future grid would encounter severe challenges in living up to values and characteristics of real households. Policy thus needs to acknowledge households as a diverse group to ensure a sustainable and democratic energy transition. We encourage the use of home personas to substantiate this diversity.