IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103692

Bruce E. Tonn , Chloe J. Hill

Over the past two decades, there has been an increase in the volume of research on topics that cover the futures of humanity and life on Earth. This paper makes a case for the establishment of a new subdiscipline to capture research under the field of futures studies called Transcendental Futures. We believe that this is necessary for two main reasons: 1) to consolidate, weave together and expand on this ongoing futures research across areas such as human extinction, global catastrophic risk, collapse, and obligations to future generations, which we believe would add to the richness and robustness of the field of futures; and 2) to better articulate and communicate the existence of such research to stakeholders outside of the world of academia that are involved in the delivery of important cross-sectoral socioeconomic and environmental initiatives, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN Pact for the Future, and who would benefit from having access to more synthesized knowledge that comes out of our field of futures studies. We also believe that the establishment of this new subdiscipline will help to illuminate and help answer vital research questions that are essential for accelerating progress towards safeguarding the survival of life on Earth.

在过去的二十年里，关于人类和地球上生命的未来的研究数量有所增加。本文提出了建立一个新的子学科的案例，以捕捉期货研究领域下的研究，称为先验期货。我们认为，这有两个主要原因：1)巩固、编织和扩展正在进行的期货研究，包括人类灭绝、全球灾难性风险、崩溃和对子孙后代的义务等领域，我们认为这将增加期货领域的丰富性和稳健性；2)向学术界以外的利益相关者更好地表达和沟通此类研究的存在，这些利益相关者参与了重要的跨部门社会经济和环境倡议的实施，例如联合国可持续发展目标（SDGs）和联合国未来公约，他们将受益于获得来自我们未来研究领域的更多综合知识。我们还相信，建立这一新的分支学科将有助于阐明和帮助回答至关重要的研究问题，这些问题对于加速保护地球上生命的生存至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

The shifty dynamics of future cancellation: Longitudinal discourse analysis of future imaginaries in Dutch environmental futures reports 未来取消的诡谲动态：荷兰环境未来报告中未来想象的纵向话语分析

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103691

Wouter de Rijk, Joram Feitsma

Over the past five decades, environmental policymaking has been heavily concerned with developing anticipatory governance capacities and designing ‘future-proof’ institutions. The literature broadly indicates that the field of governmental futuring has evolved within the past decades from ‘forecasting to foresight’, allowing more room for openness and pluralism in futuring work. This sharply differs from the contemporary critical theory analysis of ‘future cancellation’, which claims that our contemporary moment has become incapable of envisioning alternative futures beyond the late capitalist status quo. In this study we seek to empirically explore future cancellation in the context of Dutch environmental governance, a field with a long tradition of institutionalized anticipatory capacities. We conducted a longitudinal discourse analysis of a total of 20 reports from two future-oriented scientific institutes within Dutch government, tracing historical shifts in dominant futuring methods and environmental future imaginaries, and the extent to which these open or instead close the collective views of the future. Our analysis shows that, following the future cancellation thesis, futuring methods and environmental future imaginaries have over time converged into a narrower imagination of the future. This is, however, far from a stable, linear and deterministic process – as the broad-brush thesis of future cancellation might suggest. Rather, we distinguish four distinct periods, characterized by historically contingent processes of future opening and cancellation. When studied in-depth and in historical context, future cancellation in environmental futures research appears of a more shifty nature, both related to futuring methods and the presence of dominant environmental future imaginaries.

在过去的50年里，环境政策制定一直高度关注发展预期治理能力和设计“面向未来”的机构。文献广泛表明，在过去的几十年里，政府未来领域已经从“预测”发展到“预见”，为未来工作的开放性和多元化提供了更大的空间。这与当代批判理论对“未来取消”的分析截然不同，后者声称我们的当代时刻已经变得无法想象超越晚期资本主义现状的替代未来。在这项研究中，我们试图在荷兰环境治理的背景下实证地探索未来的取消，这是一个具有制度化预期能力的悠久传统的领域。我们对荷兰政府内两个面向未来的科学研究所的20份报告进行了纵向话语分析，追踪了主导未来方法和环境未来想象的历史变化，以及这些变化在多大程度上开放或关闭了对未来的集体看法。我们的分析表明，在未来取消理论之后，未来方法和对环境未来的想象随着时间的推移已经融合成对未来的更狭隘的想象。然而，这远不是一个稳定的、线性的和确定的过程——正如未来相互抵消的粗略论点可能暗示的那样。相反，我们区分了四个不同的时期，其特征是未来开放和取消的历史偶然过程。在深入研究和历史背景下，环境未来研究中的未来取消显得更加诡谲，这既与未来方法有关，也与主导环境未来想象的存在有关。

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引用次数: 0

From futures awareness to shaping the food system: Relational foundations of young people's future-oriented agency 从未来意识到塑造食物系统：年轻人未来导向机构的关系基础

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103697

Tiina Tuominen, Anu Seisto, Minna Halonen, Juuli Huuhanmäki, Sofi Kurki

The role and agency of citizens in future making are arousing increasing interest in futures studies. While research on future-oriented agency provides insights into how future-oriented, prospective attitude can be stimulated, researchers are still struggling to understand why such attitude does not lead to action. An aspect that deserves more attention in this research is how the relations between people shape attitudes and actions. Young people are an insightful group to investigate in this respect, as their agency and relations in the world are just forming. We draw on sociological theories to suggest that future-oriented agency comprises both future orientation (the motivational element of agency) and relational power (the social element of agency) that together shape future-oriented action. We then examine the role of social relations and positions in the development of agency and refine the conceptualisation of agency using essay data in which students, aged between 14 and 19 years, reflect on their agency in food system transition. The findings reveal five agency types, providing some evidence on how the students’ families, hobbies, and other relations shaped these types. We elaborate on the findings to suggest how to better support young people’s future-oriented agency through education. This way, the paper contributes to understanding the formation of future-oriented agency and the role of education in that process.

公民在未来决策中的作用和代理正日益引起人们对未来研究的兴趣。虽然对面向未来的行为的研究提供了如何激发面向未来的前瞻性态度的见解，但研究人员仍在努力理解为什么这种态度不会导致行动。在本研究中更值得关注的一个方面是人与人之间的关系如何塑造态度和行动。在这方面，年轻人是一个有洞察力的研究群体，因为他们在世界上的代理和关系刚刚形成。我们借鉴社会学理论，认为面向未来的代理包括未来取向（代理的动机因素）和关系权力（代理的社会因素），它们共同塑造了面向未来的行为。然后，我们研究了社会关系和地位在代理发展中的作用，并使用14至19岁的学生反思他们在粮食系统转型中的代理的论文数据来完善代理的概念化。研究结果揭示了五种代理类型，为学生的家庭、爱好和其他关系如何塑造这些类型提供了一些证据。我们对研究结果进行详细阐述，以建议如何通过教育更好地支持青少年面向未来的机构。通过这种方式，本文有助于理解面向未来的机构的形成以及教育在这一过程中的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Revitalizing democracy through cybernetics and systems science: Principles and applications for effective governance 通过控制论和系统科学振兴民主：有效治理的原则和应用

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103693

Yiannis Laouris , Peter Tuddenham

This paper argues that the erosion of democratic governance is partly due to the neglect or violation of foundational principles from systems science and cybernetics. Concepts such as purpose, feedback, emergence, entropy, self-organization, adaptation, and learning are essential for governing complex (societal) systems but are often overlooked in institutional practice. Drawing on theory and international case studies, the authors show how these principles can inform more resilient, participatory, and adaptive approaches to governance. By applying these principles, this study contributes to anticipatory governance models that can inform more democratic, resilient, and participatory futures. The paper outlines recurring patterns of systemic failure and offers practical reflections for policymakers and institutional designers. It also calls on systems scientists and cyberneticians to engage more directly in educating and supporting those tasked with governing socio-technical systems. In doing so, it reframes systems-cybernetics not as abstract theory but as a necessary foundation for restoring legitimacy, adaptability, and integrity to democratic institutions.

本文认为，民主治理的侵蚀部分是由于忽视或违反了系统科学和控制论的基本原则。目的、反馈、涌现、熵、自组织、适应和学习等概念对于治理复杂（社会）系统至关重要，但在制度实践中往往被忽视。通过理论和国际案例研究，作者展示了这些原则如何能够为更具弹性、参与性和适应性的治理方法提供信息。通过应用这些原则，本研究有助于建立预期治理模式，为更民主、更有弹性和更参与性的未来提供信息。本文概述了系统性失灵的反复出现的模式，并为政策制定者和制度设计者提供了实际的思考。它还呼吁系统科学家和控制论专家更直接地参与教育和支持那些负责管理社会技术系统的人。在此过程中，它重新构建了系统控制论，而不是抽象的理论，而是恢复民主制度合法性、适应性和完整性的必要基础。

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引用次数: 0

Principles for building a culture of organizational foresight 建立组织远见文化的原则

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103673

Jason Jabbour , Nicolas A. Balcom Raleigh , Anne-Sophie Stevance , James Waddell , Andrea Hinwood

There is growing interest in developing foresight cultures within international organizations. This reflection on the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) approach focuses on a critical 18-month chapter of an ongoing initiative called the Foresight Trajectory. It begins with the premise that organizations are complex adaptive systems, foresight is driven by its potential value, and anticipation is a social phenomenon. The paper proposes principles for cultivating a culture of organizational foresight based on a methodological reflection of the UNEP Foresight Trajectory. This process applied three sets of Reflection Questions across six project phases, generating key insights that inform principles for cultivating foresight within the organization. The questions addressed contexts, relevance perceptions, and modes of anticipation. Three main insights emerged: the foresight process was dynamic and adaptive; the process itself was meaningful to stakeholders as a driver of foresight culture formation; and UNEP, along with other international entities, is uniquely positioned to convene multi-perspective and global foresight processes. Based on these insights, seven Foresight Principles are proposed to guide UNEP and other international entities in engaging stakeholders in foresight to explore new ideas, prepare for uncertainty, build a foresight community, stay flexible and reflexive, communicate openly while respecting stakeholder needs, and foster diverse perspectives to spark immediate thinking and action. This reflection aims to contribute to the development of a foresight culture at UNEP and offer useful insights for other UN entities and beyond.

在国际组织内部发展远见文化的兴趣日益浓厚。本文对联合国环境规划署（UNEP）方法的反思侧重于一项名为“远见轨迹”（Foresight Trajectory）的持续倡议中为期18个月的关键章节。它的前提是组织是复杂的适应性系统，预见是由其潜在价值驱动的，预期是一种社会现象。本文在对环境署远见轨迹进行方法学反思的基础上，提出了培养组织远见文化的原则。这个过程在六个项目阶段中应用了三组反思问题，产生了重要的见解，这些见解为培养组织内的远见提供了原则。这些问题涉及情境、关联感知和预期模式。主要有三个见解：预见过程是动态的和适应性的；作为前瞻文化形成的驱动因素，该过程本身对利益相关者有意义；环境署与其他国际实体一起，在召集多视角和全球远见进程方面具有独特的地位。基于这些见解，提出了七项前瞻原则，以指导环境署和其他国际实体让利益攸关方参与前瞻，探索新思路，为不确定性做好准备，建立一个前瞻社区，保持灵活性和反思性，在尊重利益攸关方需求的同时公开沟通，并培养多样化的观点，以激发立即的思考和行动。这一反思旨在促进环境署远见文化的发展，并为其他联合国实体和其他机构提供有用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Practising post-normal science through art-science collaborations: Institutionalising new approaches to future-making at the Joint Research Centre 通过艺术与科学的合作实践后常态科学：在联合研究中心将未来创造的新方法制度化

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103696

Sofia Rafaella Greaves, Mario Pansera, Javier Lloveras

Post-normal science (PNS) provides an emerging framework for tackling complex, uncertain, and value-laden scientific challenges by integrating diverse stakeholders, multiple knowledge forms, and democratic procedures into scientific practice. Drawing from institutional theory, which illuminates the dynamics of organizational change and resistance, this paper examines the capacity of PNS-informed interventions to reshape dominant strategies for future making and thus institutional logics within scientific organizations. Our research is empirically grounded in an ethnographic study of the European Commission’s knowledge for policy service, the Joint Research Centre, focusing on the SciArt initiative which brings together artists and scientists to coproduce knowledge. We show how SciArt transforms future making by generating tangible and intangible changes to research perspectives and processes. PNS aligned changes included reflexivity, quality control, the recognition and communication of complexity, democratization of expertise, increased citizen participation, the de-stabilising of beliefs surrounding science, and art. We argue that the potential of such project outcomes to transform the practice of science and policymaking depends upon linked experimental spaces wherein these outcomes can be applied within speculative approaches. Else we argue that the potential for transforming dominant institutional logics remains limited due to "the enclosure of uncertainty": a drive within scientific institutions to reduce uncertainty for policy clarity in contrast to the increased uncertainty required and generated by art-science collaboration. Our study underscores the need for long-term, incremental adaptation in research and policymaking structures to integrate and institutionalize PNS practices, and thus SciArt.

后常态科学（PNS）通过将不同的利益相关者、多种知识形式和民主程序整合到科学实践中，为解决复杂、不确定和充满价值的科学挑战提供了一个新兴框架。从阐明组织变革和抵抗动态的制度理论出发，本文考察了pns知情干预重塑未来制定主导战略的能力，从而在科学组织内重塑制度逻辑。我们的研究基于对欧盟委员会政策服务知识的民族志研究，即联合研究中心，重点关注SciArt倡议，该倡议将艺术家和科学家聚集在一起共同创造知识。我们展示了科学艺术如何通过对研究视角和过程产生有形和无形的变化来改变未来。与PNS相一致的变化包括反身性、质量控制、对复杂性的认识和沟通、专业知识的民主化、公民参与的增加、围绕科学和艺术的信仰的不稳定。我们认为，这些项目成果改变科学和政策制定实践的潜力取决于相关的实验空间，其中这些结果可以应用于投机方法。否则，我们认为，由于“不确定性的封闭”，转变主导制度逻辑的潜力仍然有限：科学机构内部减少政策清晰度不确定性的动力，与艺术-科学合作所要求和产生的不确定性增加形成对比。我们的研究强调了在研究和决策结构中需要长期的、渐进的适应，以整合和制度化PNS实践，从而实现SciArt。

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引用次数: 0

The traps and pitfalls of anticipatory governance – Comparative cases of South Korea and the United Kingdom - 预见性治理的陷阱和陷阱——韩国和英国的比较案例

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103707

Kyungmoo Heo , Jonathan Joseph

This article examines anticipatory governance (AG) in South Korea and the UK, revealing contrasting approaches, shaped by unique historical, political, and social contexts. It explores the levels of trust, consensus, and empowerment and the dynamics of government, society, and citizens in both countries. First, Korea demonstrates proactive, future-oriented and anticipatory policymaking through strong government leadership, readiness for adaption, and the participation of and wellnurtured futures literacy of citizens. This is rooted in a tradition of development and the government’s consciousness of public reaction, trust and legitimacy. Second, while the UK embraces an AG approach such as horizon scanning and foresight, these efforts are hindered by short-term resilience thinking, an absence of education and awareness of the public, and fragmented implementation. In the UK’s AG, resilience becomes an excuse for incapacity in finding solutions to complex problems while shifting responsibility of a government to the public without adequate capacity-building. Instead of longer-term planning, AG is used to justify governance from a distance, the role of the market and the responsibilisation of individuals. Moreover, resilience becomes an excuse for incapacity to find solutions to complex problems while shifting responsibility from the government to the public without adequate capacity-building. From this perspective, the Korean approach would be criticised as rooted in an overly-modernist and state-interventionist strategy that still sees the government as the main actor in times of crisis. The article concludes with the traps and pitfalls of AG, constrained by relation-based dynamics, neoliberal ideologies, and a focus on resilience over longterm planning.

本文考察了韩国和英国的预见性治理（AG），揭示了由独特的历史、政治和社会背景形成的截然不同的方法。它探讨了两国政府、社会和公民的信任、共识和赋权水平以及动态。首先，韩国通过强有力的政府领导和适应能力，以及国民的参与和培养未来素养，展现了前瞻性、面向未来、前瞻性的政策制定。这植根于发展的传统和政府对公众反应、信任和合法性的意识。其次，尽管英国采用了地平线扫描和远见等AG方法，但这些努力受到短期弹性思维、缺乏教育和公众意识以及分散实施的阻碍。在英国，弹性成为无力找到复杂问题的解决方案的借口，同时在没有充分能力建设的情况下将政府的责任转移给公众。与长期规划不同的是，AG被用来证明远距离治理、市场作用和个人责任的合理性。此外，韧性成为无力解决复杂问题的借口，同时在没有充分能力建设的情况下将责任从政府转嫁给公众。从这个角度来看，韩国的做法将被批评为植根于一种过于现代主义和国家干预主义的战略，这种战略仍将政府视为危机时期的主要角色。文章总结了AG的陷阱和陷阱，受到基于关系的动态、新自由主义意识形态的限制，以及对长期规划的弹性的关注。

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引用次数: 0

Real-Time AI Delphi: A novel method for decision-making and foresight contexts 实时人工智能德尔福：一种决策和预见环境的新方法

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103703

Yuri Calleo, Francesco Pilla

This paper introduces the Real-Time AI Delphi (RT-AID), a novel methodology designed to enhance the traditional Real-Time Delphi method by integrating artificial intelligence models. The Delphi method, known for its structured approach to facilitating expert consensus or gathering relevant opinions on complex issues, has evolved over time but still faces challenges such as extended timeframes and expert dropout rates. RT-AID addresses these limitations by utilizing pre-trained generative transformers as a supporting agent, facilitating convergence of opinions and fostering real-time interaction among AI-generated perspectives. RT-AID is implemented through a web-based open system, with real-time analysis and statistical summaries allowing for efficient decision-making and futures exploration. The method is validated through a preliminary case study in the climate domain, with a 10-year time horizon for the city of Dublin. The results confirm that AI-supported expert opinions not only contribute interesting and valuable perspectives but also accelerate the convergence process when the experts’ sample is limited. This demonstrates the method’s ability to enhance both the collection and analysis of data while generating more diverse and creative scenarios for strategic decision-making. This innovation represents a significant advancement in futures studies, offering increased agility, improved scenario generation, and faster consensus-building through AI integration.

本文介绍了实时人工智能Delphi (RT-AID)，这是一种通过集成人工智能模型来改进传统实时Delphi方法的新方法。德尔菲法以其促进专家共识或收集复杂问题相关意见的结构化方法而闻名，随着时间的推移，该方法不断发展，但仍然面临着诸如时间框架延长和专家辍学率等挑战。RT-AID通过使用预先训练的生成式变形器作为支持代理来解决这些限制，促进意见的融合，并促进人工智能生成的观点之间的实时交互。RT-AID通过基于网络的开放系统实施，具有实时分析和统计摘要，可实现高效决策和未来探索。该方法通过气候领域的初步案例研究进行了验证，都柏林市的时间跨度为10年。结果证实，人工智能支持的专家意见不仅提供了有趣和有价值的观点，而且在专家样本有限的情况下加速了收敛过程。这表明该方法能够增强数据的收集和分析，同时为战略决策产生更多样化和创造性的场景。这一创新代表了未来研究的重大进步，提供了更高的灵活性，改进的场景生成，并通过人工智能集成更快地建立共识。

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引用次数: 0

How crop models and government visions foreclose imaginaries of agroecological futures 农作物模型和政府愿景如何阻止对农业生态未来的想象

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103701

Emma Johansson , Lisette van Beek

Against the backdrop of the ecological crisis, food production systems will need to transform to ensure future food security. There are contrasting visions of what this transformation should look like. This paper scrutinizes these competing imaginaries of future agriculture and associated styles of anticipation in Tanzania. We find that both government visions and global crop models anticipate futures in line with agricultural modernization; a food system driven by productivity and efficiency that is associated with adverse socio-ecological challenges. In contrast, an alternative imaginary transpires through the lived experiences and aspirations of small-holder farmers; an agroecological food system characterized by soil health, food quality and solidarity that is more in line with sustainability and justice. This lived future is overwritten by government visions and global crop models, which render the agroecological future unimaginable by abstracting and emptying the future. Our findings highlight that transformative change may not only be hindered by a ‘lack of imagination’, but rather the politics of anticipation through which existing radical visions become foreclosed. We propose diverse ways in which researchers may empower radical imaginaries that already exist among marginalized communities, including what this might mean for the future use of crop models.

在生态危机的背景下，粮食生产系统需要转型，以确保未来的粮食安全。对于这种转变应该是什么样子，人们有不同的看法。本文仔细研究了这些对坦桑尼亚未来农业的竞争性想象和相关的预期风格。我们发现，无论是政府愿景还是全球作物模型，都预测了符合农业现代化的未来；由生产力和效率驱动的粮食系统与不利的社会生态挑战相关。相比之下，另一种想象是通过小农的生活经历和愿望而产生的；一个以土壤健康、食品质量和团结为特征的农业生态粮食系统，更符合可持续性和正义。这个活生生的未来被政府愿景和全球作物模型所覆盖，通过抽象和清空未来，使农业生态的未来变得不可想象。我们的研究结果强调，变革不仅可能受到“缺乏想象力”的阻碍，而且还可能受到预期政治的阻碍，通过这种政治，现有的激进愿景会被取消赎回权。我们提出了多种方法，研究人员可以赋予已经存在于边缘化社区中的激进想象力量，包括这对未来作物模型的使用可能意味着什么。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial Utopia: Simulation and artificially intelligent agents for exploring Utopian and democratized futures 人工乌托邦：用于探索乌托邦和民主化未来的模拟和人工智能代理

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103695

Yannick Oswald

Prevailing top-down systems in politics and economics struggle to keep pace with the pressing challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, social inequality and conflict. Bottom-up democratization and participatory approaches in politics and economics are increasingly seen as promising alternatives to confront and overcome these issues, often with ‘utopian’ overtones, as proponents believe they may dramatically reshape political, social and ecological futures for the better and in contrast to contemporary authoritarian tendencies across various countries. Institutional specifics and the associated collective human behavior or culture remains little understood and debated, however. In this article, I propose a novel research agenda focusing on ‘utopian’ democratization efforts with formal and computational methods as well as with artificial intelligence – I call this agenda ‘Artificial Utopia’. Artificial Utopias provide safe testing grounds for new political ideas and economic policies ‘in-silico’ with reduced risk of negative consequences as compared to testing ideas in real-world contexts. An increasing number of advanced simulation and intelligence methods, that aim at representing human cognition and collective decision-making in more realistic ways, could benefit this process. This includes agent-based modeling, reinforcement learning, large language models and more. I clarify what some of these simulation approaches can contribute to the study of Artificial Utopias with the help of two institutional examples; the citizen assembly and the democratic firm. Finally, I discuss open questions and future research directions related to the broader Artificial Utopia agenda.

现行的自上而下的政治和经济体制难以跟上21世纪的紧迫挑战，如气候变化、社会不平等和冲突。政治和经济中自下而上的民主化和参与式方法越来越被视为对抗和克服这些问题的有希望的替代方案，通常带有“乌托邦”的色彩，因为支持者认为它们可能会戏剧性地重塑政治、社会和生态的未来，使其变得更好，与当代各国的专制倾向形成对比。然而，制度细节和相关的集体人类行为或文化仍然很少被理解和争论。在这篇文章中，我提出了一个新的研究议程，重点关注“乌托邦”民主化的努力，包括形式和计算方法以及人工智能——我称这个议程为“人工乌托邦”。与在现实世界中测试思想相比，人工乌托邦为新的政治思想和经济政策提供了“计算机化”的安全试验场，降低了负面后果的风险。越来越多的先进模拟和智能方法，旨在以更现实的方式代表人类认知和集体决策，可能有利于这一进程。这包括基于代理的建模、强化学习、大型语言模型等等。我通过两个制度性的例子阐明了这些模拟方法对人工乌托邦研究的贡献；公民大会和民主公司。最后，我讨论了与更广泛的人工乌托邦议程相关的开放性问题和未来的研究方向。

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引用次数: 0

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