IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103691

Wouter de Rijk, Joram Feitsma

Over the past five decades, environmental policymaking has been heavily concerned with developing anticipatory governance capacities and designing ‘future-proof’ institutions. The literature broadly indicates that the field of governmental futuring has evolved within the past decades from ‘forecasting to foresight’, allowing more room for openness and pluralism in futuring work. This sharply differs from the contemporary critical theory analysis of ‘future cancellation’, which claims that our contemporary moment has become incapable of envisioning alternative futures beyond the late capitalist status quo. In this study we seek to empirically explore future cancellation in the context of Dutch environmental governance, a field with a long tradition of institutionalized anticipatory capacities. We conducted a longitudinal discourse analysis of a total of 20 reports from two future-oriented scientific institutes within Dutch government, tracing historical shifts in dominant futuring methods and environmental future imaginaries, and the extent to which these open or instead close the collective views of the future. Our analysis shows that, following the future cancellation thesis, futuring methods and environmental future imaginaries have over time converged into a narrower imagination of the future. This is, however, far from a stable, linear and deterministic process – as the broad-brush thesis of future cancellation might suggest. Rather, we distinguish four distinct periods, characterized by historically contingent processes of future opening and cancellation. When studied in-depth and in historical context, future cancellation in environmental futures research appears of a more shifty nature, both related to futuring methods and the presence of dominant environmental future imaginaries.

在过去的50年里，环境政策制定一直高度关注发展预期治理能力和设计“面向未来”的机构。文献广泛表明，在过去的几十年里，政府未来领域已经从“预测”发展到“预见”，为未来工作的开放性和多元化提供了更大的空间。这与当代批判理论对“未来取消”的分析截然不同，后者声称我们的当代时刻已经变得无法想象超越晚期资本主义现状的替代未来。在这项研究中，我们试图在荷兰环境治理的背景下实证地探索未来的取消，这是一个具有制度化预期能力的悠久传统的领域。我们对荷兰政府内两个面向未来的科学研究所的20份报告进行了纵向话语分析，追踪了主导未来方法和环境未来想象的历史变化，以及这些变化在多大程度上开放或关闭了对未来的集体看法。我们的分析表明，在未来取消理论之后，未来方法和对环境未来的想象随着时间的推移已经融合成对未来的更狭隘的想象。然而，这远不是一个稳定的、线性的和确定的过程——正如未来相互抵消的粗略论点可能暗示的那样。相反，我们区分了四个不同的时期，其特征是未来开放和取消的历史偶然过程。在深入研究和历史背景下，环境未来研究中的未来取消显得更加诡谲，这既与未来方法有关，也与主导环境未来想象的存在有关。

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引用次数: 0

A greener future cannot be bought: On the paradoxes of practising contemporary consumption-driven sustainability 绿色的未来是买不到的：论当代消费驱动型可持续发展的悖论

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103683

Janne J. Salovaara , Sophia E. Hagolani-Albov

This paper uses a critical theoretical approach to examine the paradoxical logic(s) underlying contemporary sustainability practices under the umbrella of green economy. Reaching sustainability is commonly framed as demanding transformative shifts in societal and global processes; however, we observe that consumption-centred sustainability measures at best support optimization. We assert that these approaches are more akin to a harmful hope than a manifestation of transformative sustainability, because while they market participation in “sustainability” they are implemented through mechanisms of growth-based world system. We explore the market logic woven throughout these so-called green measures using an illustrative example. Tree planting is often—uncritically—accepted as “good” or “sustainable”; however, the consumption-centred initiatives distract from transformation of the underlying structures and mechanisms. This in essence hides business-as-usual behind a perception of participation in “sustainability”. The same logic can be seen in other areas of transition rhetoric and green economy, which unfortunately is a dominant expression of applied sustainability. We reflect on green consumerism and call for further critical discussion and research on the looming barriers to achieving a more robust sustainability. This article highlights how these consumption-oriented initiatives reproduce the existing market logic (i.e. the perception that we can buy our way out of crisis).

本文采用一种批判性的理论方法来研究绿色经济下当代可持续发展实践的矛盾逻辑。实现可持续性通常被定义为要求社会和全球进程发生变革性转变；然而，我们观察到，以消费为中心的可持续性措施至多支持优化。我们认为，这些方法更像是一种有害的希望，而不是变革性可持续性的表现，因为它们在市场参与“可持续性”的同时，是通过以增长为基础的世界体系机制实施的。我们用一个说明性的例子来探讨贯穿这些所谓的绿色措施的市场逻辑。植树常常被不加批判地认为是“好的”或“可持续的”；然而，以消费为中心的举措分散了对基本结构和机制的改革。这实际上是将一切照旧隐藏在参与“可持续性”的认知背后。同样的逻辑也可以在转型修辞和绿色经济的其他领域看到，不幸的是，绿色经济是应用可持续性的主要表达。我们反思绿色消费主义，并呼吁对实现更强劲的可持续性的潜在障碍进行进一步的批判性讨论和研究。本文强调了这些以消费为导向的举措是如何再现现有的市场逻辑的（即，我们可以通过购买摆脱危机的看法）。

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引用次数: 0

Designing to elicit future affective potential: Café 2057 设计以引出未来的情感潜能：cafe2057

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103684

Oluwabukola Makinde , Christy Spackman , Alejandra Rodriguez , Stacey Kuznetsov , Christopher Wharton

This paper offers an approach for extending the use of creative arts-based methods to co-create ‘outputs’ about futuring that can then be used for conducting additional research. This paper further contributes to the field of futuring by providing an example of how experiential futures methodologies can be mobilized as an initial step in part of an iterative, multi-step research process to investigate mundane interactions while elucidating insights about behaviors. The goal was to explore, in a unique outside-the-box format, the affective ways that consumers related to food and beverage choices, product design, attributes and flavors. Through this interactive exhibit, we aimed to generate insights for participants and researchers alike into consumer’s current and anticipated hopes and concerns about the food system and food choice writ large. We additionally sought insights into how an everyday third place like a coffee shop facilitates affective futuring. We understand affective futuring as the exploration of the role emotional and affective dimensions play in shaping group and individual visions of the future in relationship to place. The design of “Café 2057” thus sought to create an experiential futures scenario where participants could not only “envision and create alternative food futures to the status quo,” but also project/ elicit the affective potential of such alternative futures.

本文提供了一种方法来扩展使用基于创造性艺术的方法来共同创造关于未来的“输出”，然后可以用于进行额外的研究。本文提供了一个例子，说明如何将经验期货方法作为迭代多步骤研究过程的一部分的初始步骤，以研究世俗的相互作用，同时阐明对行为的见解，从而进一步为未来领域做出贡献。其目标是以一种独特的方式探索消费者与食品和饮料选择、产品设计、属性和口味相关的情感方式。通过这个互动展览，我们旨在为参与者和研究人员提供深入的见解，了解消费者对食品系统和食品选择的当前和预期的希望和担忧。我们还深入研究了像咖啡店这样的日常第三场所是如何促进情感未来的。我们将情感未来理解为探索情感和情感维度在塑造群体和个人对未来与地点的关系的愿景中所起的作用。因此，“caf 2057”的设计旨在创造一种体验式的未来场景，参与者不仅可以“设想和创造替代现状的食物未来”，还可以预测/引出这种替代未来的情感潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Regimes of futurity: Progress, catastrophe, and historicity in the Anthropocene 未来的政权：人类世的进步、灾难和历史性

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103682

Martin Savransky

The (question of the) future is not what it used to be. In an age of irreversible planetary instability, what was once a source of hope and aspiration, and a problem of anticipation, imagination and the fabrication of alternatives, has become precarious, a source of fear and dread, and a problem of finitude, catastrophe, and adaptation. What becomes of the idea of the future on an earth rendered forever unstable and unsafe? This, the article argues, is the key question of a transdisciplinary futures studies in the Anthropocene. At a time when planetary upheavals throw its guiding idea of “alternative futures” into disarray, the task is not, however, to hang on to the fundamental openness of the future as an article of faith. The task is to reckon with the historical nature of the (open) future in the first place, critically interrogating the future’s (and futures studies’) own historicity and modern conditions of emergence in order to devise ways of attending to emerging and historically shifting relations to the future in the planetary present. Bringing recent debates on the crisis of futurity in futures studies and scholarship on historical futures into a conversation about the shifting historicity of the future in the Anthropocene, this article proffers the notion of “regimes of futurity” as an organising heuristic to reassess the stakes and reimagine the task of a future futures studies.

未来的问题不是过去的问题了。在一个不可逆转的地球不稳定的时代，曾经是希望和抱负的源泉，是期待、想象和制造替代方案的问题，已经变得不稳定，是恐惧和恐惧的来源，是有限、灾难和适应的问题。在一个永远不稳定和不安全的地球上，未来的想法变成了什么？本文认为，这是未来人类世跨学科研究的关键问题。然而，当地球的剧变使其“另类未来”的指导思想陷入混乱时，我们的任务不是把未来的基本开放性作为一种信仰来坚持下去。我们的任务是首先考虑到（开放的）未来的历史本质，批判性地质疑未来（以及未来研究）自身的历史性和现代出现条件，以便设计出在当前地球上关注新兴和历史变化与未来的关系的方法。将最近关于未来研究中的未来危机和历史未来学术的辩论带入到关于人类世未来历史性变化的对话中，本文提供了“未来制度”的概念，作为重新评估风险和重新设想未来未来研究任务的组织启发式。

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引用次数: 0

The interaction between justice and anticipation: Four mechanisms of reproducing injustice 正义与期待的互动：不公再生产的四种机制

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103674

Sietske Veenman, Maria Kaufmann

There is a growing recognition and demand that sustainability transformations should be ‘just’, as visible in European Union policy or the United Nations (UN). Therefore, it is essential to understand and build links between futures and justice discourses. Hence, the aim of this SI is to document empirically and conceptually the way justice discourses and futures bear on societal transformations, putting at its center their interplay. Contributions were invited to investigate the role of future thinking in unpacking sustainability transformations, dealing with questions such as: What is the effect of this interaction of discourses at different levels, like daily practices, procedures, on institutions and/or on policy? How are futures strategically used to legitimize particular justice discourses and vice versa? We identify four underlying mechanisms that help explain how existing injustices are reproduced in societal transformations through the interaction between futures and justice discourses: (1) presentification; (2) utopian dismissal; (3) tangible future bias; and (4) anticipatory justification. By examining the connection in literature and underlying mechanisms, the notion of ‘futures justice’ emerges to be essential to reducing injustices: integrating epistemological perspectives in thinking about futures into the processes of societal transformations.

越来越多的人认识到并要求可持续转型应该是“公正的”，这在欧盟政策或联合国（UN）中可见。因此，理解和建立未来与正义话语之间的联系至关重要。因此，本SI的目的是从经验和概念上记录正义话语和未来对社会变革的影响，并将其置于相互作用的中心。会议邀请与会者探讨未来思考在可持续发展转型中所扮演的角色，并探讨以下问题：日常实践、程序、制度和/或政策等不同层面的话语相互作用的影响是什么？期货是如何在战略上被用来使特定的正义话语合法化的，反之亦然？我们确定了四个潜在的机制，这些机制有助于解释现有的不公正如何通过未来和正义话语之间的相互作用在社会转型中再现：(1)呈现；(2)乌托邦式的摒弃；(3)有形未来偏差；(4)预期正当性。通过研究文献中的联系和潜在机制，“未来正义”的概念对减少不公正至关重要：将思考未来的认识论观点整合到社会转型过程中。

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引用次数: 0

Setting the scene for discussing innovation policy directions: Foresight as a practice of synchronizing 为讨论创新政策方向设置场景：作为同步实践的预见

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103681

Max Priebe , Philine Warnke , K. Matthias Weber

Researchers and policy analysts often highlight the role of anticipatory practices in technology development and innovation governance. In this study, we extend this argument by examining foresight practices within the context of initiating deliberations concerning the directionality of innovation policy. Drawing on practice theories and anticipatory practice research, we develop a conceptual lens to scrutinize foresight. The lens is applied to study the case of a large policy-oriented foresight scheme, Foresight on Demand, which supported the operationalization of Horizon Europe, the Ninth European Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. This case study provides insight into the workings of anticipatory practices during the nascent stages of innovation policy processes, when problems, solutions and stakeholders' interests have yet to be fully defined. The study describes how foresight mobilizes actors at the intersection between innovation, policy and society through engaging them with anticipatory practices. We conclude that foresight hereby synchronizes disparate bodies of knowledge, collective expectations and temporal demands, thus ‘setting-the-scene’ for arenas in which actors can, in spite of functional differentiation, get together and discuss innovation policy directions. The research findings outline possible implications for function, utilization and evaluation of foresight.

研究人员和政策分析人员经常强调预期实践在技术发展和创新治理中的作用。在本研究中，我们通过在启动有关创新政策方向性的审议的背景下检查预见实践来扩展这一论点。在实践理论和预见性实践研究的基础上，我们发展了一个概念性的视角来审视预见性。这一视角被用于研究大型政策导向的预见计划——按需预见计划——的案例，该计划支持了欧洲地平线（第九个欧洲研究和技术发展框架方案）的实施。本案例研究提供了在创新政策过程的初期阶段，当问题、解决方案和利益相关者的利益尚未完全确定时，预期实践的运作情况。该研究描述了前瞻性如何通过让参与者参与前瞻性实践，在创新、政策和社会的交叉点调动参与者。我们得出的结论是，前瞻性在此将不同的知识主体、集体期望和时间需求同步起来，从而为行动者能够（尽管存在功能差异）聚集在一起讨论创新政策方向的领域“设置场景”。研究结果概述了前瞻性的功能、利用和评价的可能意义。

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引用次数: 0

Talking about my future city: Engaging young voices through persona-based participation 谈论我的未来城市：通过个人参与吸引年轻人的声音

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103680

Romina Rodela , Oldouz Nejadi , Erik Falk

Questions about who is included and excluded from spatial planning are shaping current debates about urban environments, including future-oriented inquiries about whose needs future cities will best serve. The role of children and youth in discussing and shaping urban futures is crucial, as these groups will inhabit the cities currently under development. In this paper, we report on an activity meant to explore novel ways in which young people can be engaged in debates about urban futures. This exploration comes at a time when changes in the Swedish national planning framework have taken place and youth has been recognized as a group in need to be involved in participatory spatial planning. We present findings from an activity where personas - fictional characters - were employed to involve a group of young individuals in discussions and co-creation of developments concerning the future of their living environments in the South of Stockholm. Our results suggest that personas serve as valuable elicitation tools for capturing diverse viewpoints and bridging abstract planning concepts with the lived experiences of young individuals.

关于谁被纳入和排除在空间规划之外的问题正在影响当前关于城市环境的辩论，包括面向未来的关于未来城市最能满足谁的需求的询问。儿童和青年在讨论和塑造城市未来方面的作用至关重要，因为这些群体将居住在目前正在开发的城市中。在本文中，我们报道了一项旨在探索年轻人参与城市未来辩论的新方式的活动。这一探索是在瑞典国家规划框架发生变化的时候进行的，青年被认为是一个需要参与参与式空间规划的群体。我们展示了一项活动的研究结果，在该活动中，我们采用了虚构的人物角色，让一群年轻人参与讨论和共同创造关于斯德哥尔摩南部他们未来生活环境的发展。我们的研究结果表明，人物角色作为一种有价值的启发工具，可以捕捉不同的观点，并将抽象的规划概念与年轻人的生活经验联系起来。

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引用次数: 0

Planning and the unthinkable: Inertia, imagination and climate change along the Upper Adriatic coast 规划和不可想象：惯性，想象力和气候变化沿上亚得里亚海海岸

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103678

Ludovico Centis , Alvise Pagnacco, Federico Vascotto

The paper addresses the study of coastal futures through the combination of scenario planning, cartographic visualization, and real estate valuation. When addressing and reflecting on the territorial impacts of climate change at the global scale, the real estate sector plays an inertial role in different contexts, and in particular in coastal ones most exposed to rising seas, as the Upper Adriatic area between the Gulf of Trieste and the Venice Lagoon. It is becoming increasingly clear that the reflection and possible gradual planning and programming by public bodies of a controlled retreat from these areas in view of the predicted rising seas finds an obstacle not only in the protection of areas and sites of inestimable cultural and naturalistic value, but also of real estate assets. The paper reports the development of a methodological framework that –through the integration of parcel-level real estate data, hydrological risk scenarios, and typologies of spatial vulnerability– could act as reference and trigger for public agencies, planners, or climate adaptation practitioners in programs of awareness-raising or exploratory modelling. Starting from the visualization of the plausible effects of flooding and sea level rise in the coming decades and reflecting on a possible scenario for the Upper Adriatic coastal area in 100 years from now, the paper engages with a potential epochal shift in the way of structuring and inhabiting this territory, considering not only timely issues as climate action and climate justice, but foreseeing a transition that takes into account also a strategic dimension as the economic one.

本文通过情景规划、地图可视化和房地产估值相结合的方法来研究沿海期货。当在全球范围内解决和反思气候变化对领土的影响时，房地产行业在不同的背景下发挥着惯性作用，特别是在最容易受到海平面上升影响的沿海地区，如的里雅斯特湾和威尼斯泻湖之间的上亚得里亚海地区。越来越明显的是，考虑到预计的海平面上升，公共机构对这些地区进行有控制的撤退的反思和可能的逐步规划和规划，不仅在保护具有不可估量的文化和自然价值的地区和遗址方面遇到了障碍，而且在房地产资产方面也遇到了障碍。本文报告了一个方法框架的发展，该框架通过整合地块级房地产数据、水文风险情景和空间脆弱性类型，可以作为公共机构、规划者或气候适应从业者在提高认识或探索性建模方案中的参考和触发器。从未来几十年洪水和海平面上升的可能影响的可视化开始，并反思100年后上亚得里亚海沿海地区的可能情景，本文涉及该地区结构和居住方式的潜在划时代转变，不仅考虑了气候行动和气候正义等及时问题，而且预测了一种过渡，同时考虑了经济方面的战略层面。

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引用次数: 0

Shaping circular futures: The role of future-making practices in the transition to circular food systems 塑造循环未来：面向未来的实践在向循环粮食系统过渡中的作用

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103679

Laura Schütz de Rivera , Hannah H.E. van Zanten , Anita Frehner , Adrian Muller , Olivier Ejderyan , Vivian Valencia , Jessica Duncan

Visions of circular food systems have become increasingly central to debates about sustainability, guiding strategies to reduce waste and regenerate resources. Among the at times conflicting visions that diverge in values and priorities, the transition toward circular food systems remains uncertain. We examine how everyday future-making practices reconfigure relations with waste and shape circular transitions in Switzerland. Drawing on Social Practice Theory and the concept of transformativity, we analyze how actors perform practices that reshape how waste is encountered, valued, and integrated into circular material flows in everyday life. Based on qualitative fieldwork conducted in 2023 with four cases from the Swiss food system including fertilizer production from urine, urban aquaponics, food waste redistribution, and biodynamic CSA farming, we show how different practices render alternative waste values tangible and engage people in circular futures-in-the-making through habitual, planned, and experimental modes of practices. In doing so, we highlight the everyday as a key site where contested circularity visions are negotiated, adapted, and implemented.

循环粮食系统的愿景日益成为可持续性辩论的核心，指导减少浪费和再生资源的战略。在价值观和优先事项不同、有时相互冲突的愿景中，向循环粮食系统的过渡仍然不确定。我们研究了日常的未来实践如何重新配置与废物的关系，并在瑞士形成循环过渡。利用社会实践理论和变革的概念，我们分析了参与者如何进行实践，重塑日常生活中如何遇到、重视和融入循环物质流的废物。基于在2023年进行的定性实地调查，包括瑞士食品系统的四个案例，包括从尿液中生产肥料、城市鱼菜共生、食物垃圾再分配和生物动力CSA农业，我们展示了不同的实践如何使替代废物价值具体化，并通过习惯、计划和实验模式让人们参与到循环未来中。在这样做的过程中，我们强调日常生活是一个关键的场所，在这里有争议的循环愿景被协商、适应和实施。

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引用次数: 0

Editorial: Reflections on post-normal science and ethics 社论：对后常态科学与伦理的反思

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103675

Tom Børsen , Gaston Meskens

This special issue on Post-normal Science and Ethics brings together a collection of theoretical and practice-oriented contributions that explore the ethical dimensions of science in post-normal times. Rooted in reflections presented at a virtual symposium in 2020 and a subsequent in-person gathering in Barcelona in 2021, the issue interrogates how ethics underpins post-normal science (PNS), particularly when addressing complex, uncertain, and high-stakes societal challenges. With contributions from senior scholars and emerging voices, the volume offers both foundational perspectives and case-based insights into how extended peer communities, epistemic justice, and the TRUST ethos shape responsible knowledge-making. In addition to theoretical deep dives into ethical aspects and values of PNS, the issue includes applied studies ranging from sustainability workshops to participatory ethics dialogues and educational innovations. Rather than presenting a unified doctrine, these ten papers collectively offer plural reflections on the evolving role of science in governance, advocating for a more inclusive, reflexive, and ethically committed approach to science-policy interfaces. Together, they suggest that ethics is not a peripheral concern but a core element in the pursuit of quality and legitimacy in science for post-normal times.

本期《后常态科学与伦理》特刊汇集了一系列理论和实践方面的贡献，探讨了后常态时代科学的伦理维度。根据2020年虚拟研讨会和随后2021年巴塞罗那面对面会议上提出的思考，该问题质疑伦理如何支撑后常态科学（PNS），特别是在应对复杂、不确定和高风险的社会挑战时。随着资深学者和新兴声音的贡献，该卷提供了基础观点和基于案例的见解如何扩展同行社区，认识正义和信任精神塑造负责任的知识制作。除了从理论上深入探讨PNS的伦理方面和价值外，该问题还包括从可持续性研讨会到参与性伦理对话和教育创新等应用研究。这十篇论文并没有提出统一的理论，而是对科学在治理中不断发展的作用进行了多重反思，倡导采用一种更具包容性、反思性和道德承诺的方法来处理科学-政策界面。总之，它们表明，在后常态时代，伦理不是一个次要问题，而是追求科学质量和合法性的核心要素。

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引用次数: 0

Futures最新文献