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A simple approach to dealing with partial contestation 处理部分争议的简单方法
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13408
Ali Kagalwala, Thiago M. Q. Moreira, Guy D. Whitten
ObjectiveWe propose a simple approach to dealing with partial contestation in models of multiparty elections.MethodsOur proposed approach is to add a tiny value to the vote share of parties that do not contest a district and then to include dummy variables identifying those districts in which parties do not compete. We can then estimate a single system of equations using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) approach and Aitchison's log‐ratio transformation. In our SUR system, we interact the dummy variable for a party that partially contested districts with other predictors in the equation that uses the share of votes of the same party in the log‐ratio outcome. Finally, we estimate robust standard errors for predictors in this equation to address heteroscedasticity.ResultsWe demonstrate the utility of our approach using simulated data and election results from the English parliamentary elections in 2017.ConclusionFrom our simulations, we find that our recommended approach performs as well as that proposed by Tom, Tucker, and Wittenberg. Our strategy is advantageous in that it is easy to estimate, uses information from all districts, and addresses partial contestation in real‐world elections with a single system of seemingly unrelated regressions.
我们提出了一种简单的方法来处理多党选举模型中的部分竞争问题。方法我们提出的方法是给不参加地区竞争的政党的得票率加上一个很小的值,然后加入虚拟变量来确定那些政党不参加竞争的地区。然后,我们就可以使用看似无关回归(SUR)方法和艾奇逊的对数比率转换来估计一个方程系统。在我们的 SUR 系统中,我们将部分竞争选区政党的虚拟变量与方程中的其他预测因子进行交互,该方程使用对数比率结果中同一政党的选票份额。最后,我们估算了该方程中预测因子的稳健标准误差,以解决异方差问题。结果我们使用 2017 年英国议会选举的模拟数据和选举结果展示了我们方法的实用性。结论通过模拟,我们发现我们推荐的方法与汤姆、塔克和威滕伯格提出的方法表现一样好。我们的策略的优势在于易于估算,使用来自所有选区的信息,并通过一个看似无关的回归系统来解决现实世界选举中的部分竞争问题。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond racial resentment: Systemic racism beliefs and public attitudes toward criminal justice institutions and reforms 超越种族怨恨:系统性种族主义信念与公众对刑事司法机构和改革的态度
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13413
Eric Silver, John Iceland, Kerby Goff
IntroductionSystemic racism theory has become a central part of academic and public discussions about criminal justice institutions and reforms. Little, however, is known about the association between people's belief in the ubiquity of systemic racism and their attitudes toward criminal justice institutions and reforms.MethodsTo fill this gap, we examine the association between systemic racism beliefs and support for police, police reform, and the BLM movement using a national YouGov sample of 1125 U.S. adults.ResultsSystemic racism beliefs are associated with Americans’ attitudes toward all three outcomes, net of a wide range of controls, including negative experiences with police, political ideology, and most notably, racial resentment.ConclusionOur study provides compelling evidence that belief in systemic racism is an important driver of Americans’ support for police, police reforms, and BLM.
引言 系统性种族主义理论已成为学术界和公众讨论刑事司法机构和改革的核心内容。为了填补这一空白,我们利用 YouGov 对 1125 名美国成年人进行的全国抽样调查,研究了系统性种族主义信念与支持警察、警察改革和 BLM 运动之间的关系。结果系统性种族主义信念与美国人对所有这三种结果的态度都有关联,其中不包括各种控制因素,包括与警察打交道的负面经历、政治意识形态以及最明显的种族怨恨。结论我们的研究提供了令人信服的证据,表明系统性种族主义信念是美国人支持警察、警察改革和 BLM 的重要驱动力。
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引用次数: 0
When demography is (not) destiny: Exploring identity and issue‐cross‐pressures among Latino voters in the 2020 presidential election 当人口统计(不是)命运时:探索 2020 年总统大选中拉丁裔选民的身份认同和议题交叉压力
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13400
Álvaro J. Corral, David L. Leal
ObjectiveScholars have struggled to understand Donald Trump's surprising levels of Latino support in two consecutive presidential elections. We test three hypotheses to better understand the strength and weakness of Trump, Biden, and both political parties.MethodsWe conduct bivariate and multivariate analyses of pre‐ and post‐election surveys to identify sources of support (beyond national origin differences) that explain how Trump improved his level of support among Latino voters to reach the low‐ to mid‐ 30 percent range.ResultsIntra‐Latino differences in ideology, identity (gender and religion), and immigration attitudes help explain Trump's relatively strong showing among Latinos in 2020.ConclusionWhile the nation's electorate is becoming more demographically diverse, many predictions associated with the notion of “demography as destiny” should be tempered given the political heterogeneity among Latino voters.
目标学者们一直在努力理解唐纳德-特朗普(Donald Trump)在连续两次总统选举中获得拉丁裔支持的惊人水平。我们检验了三个假设,以更好地理解特朗普、拜登以及两个政党的优势和劣势。方法我们对选举前后的调查进行了二元和多元分析,以确定支持来源(除民族血统差异外),从而解释特朗普如何提高其在拉美裔选民中的支持率,使其达到 30% 的中低水平。结果拉美裔选民在意识形态、身份认同(性别和宗教)以及移民态度方面的差异有助于解释特朗普 2020 年在拉美裔选民中表现相对强劲的原因。结论虽然美国选民的人口结构正变得越来越多样化,但鉴于拉美裔选民的政治异质性,许多与 "人口结构即命运 "概念相关的预测应有所节制。
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引用次数: 0
Presidents and nonprofits: Illustrating compositional modeling of the U.S. nonprofit sector 总统与非营利组织:说明美国非营利部门的构成模型
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13409
Samantha Zuhlke
ObjectivesNonprofits sit at the intersection of policy and politics. Compositional modeling presents an opportunity for nonprofit scholars to investigate trade‐offs within the nonprofit sector.MethodsUsing U.S. nonprofit and political data from 1993 to 2013, I employ a dynamic pie modeling strategy to illustrate how federal politics affect the composition of the nonprofit sector.ResultsU.S. federal politics, measured as changes in presidential partisanship, correlate with trade‐offs in the composition of the nonprofit sector. Democratic presidents are associated with increases in new Human Services (HU), Environment and Animals (EN), and International/Foreign Affairs (IN) nonprofits and decreases in new Arts/Culture/Humanities (AR), Education (ED), Health (HE), Religion Related (RE), and Unknown/Unclassified (UN) nonprofit organizations.ConclusionsTheoretically, politics may play a greater role in the nonprofit sector than scholars currently give credence to. Empirically, compositional modeling strategies provide avenues for new theoretical and empirical insights into nonprofit organizations.
目标非营利组织处于政策与政治的交汇点。方法利用 1993 年至 2013 年的美国非营利组织和政治数据,我采用了动态饼建模策略来说明联邦政治如何影响非营利组织的构成。结果以总统党派变化为衡量标准的美国联邦政治与非营利组织构成的权衡相关。民主党总统与新的人类服务 (HU)、环境与动物 (EN) 和国际/外交事务 (IN) 非营利组织的增加有关,而与新的艺术/文化/人文 (AR)、教育 (ED)、健康 (HE)、宗教相关 (RE) 和未知/未分类 (UN) 非营利组织的减少有关。从经验角度看,组合建模策略为非营利组织提供了新的理论和经验见解。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of immigrant generational status on the likelihood of misreporting turnout 移民世代身份对误报投票率可能性的影响
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13399
Dan Qi
ObjectiveThis article explores the effects of immigrant generational status on the likelihood of misreporting turnout. I contend that varied levels of immigrant status affect individuals’ misreporting turnout in different ways due to social desirability and assimilation level concerns.MethodsUsing data from 2016 and 2020 Cooperative Election Study data sets, which include questions on respondents’ immigrant status and voting behavior variables, this study analyzes the effect of varied levels of immigrant status on misreporting turnout.ResultsThe analysis shows that there is a decreased likelihood of misreporting turnout as individuals move farther away from their immigrant generation in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In other words, first‐generation immigrants are most likely to misreport turnout. Second‐ and third‐generation immigrants are less likely to misreport turnout than the first generations but are still significantly more likely to misreport their turnout than those who are not immigrants or who do not have immigrant parents or grandparents.ConclusionThe findings generally support the expectation. The levels of immigrant status affect individuals’ misreporting turnout in different ways.
本文探讨了移民世代身份对误报投票率可能性的影响。方法本研究利用 2016 年和 2020 年合作选举研究数据集(其中包括关于受访者移民身份和投票行为变量的问题)中的数据,分析了不同程度的移民身份对虚报投票率的影响。结果分析表明,在 2016 年和 2020 年的选举中,随着个人离其移民世代越远,虚报投票率的可能性越小。换句话说,第一代移民最有可能误报投票率。第二代和第三代移民误报投票率的可能性低于第一代移民,但误报投票率的可能性仍明显高于非移民或父母或祖父母均非移民的人。移民身份的高低对个人误报投票率的影响各不相同。
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引用次数: 0
Personalism and purges: Are personalist dictators more likely to engage in elite purges? 个人主义与清洗:个人主义独裁者是否更有可能进行精英清洗?
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13410
John Ishiyama, Marijke Breuning, Taekbin Kim
ObjectiveIn this article, we empirically examine the relationship between personalism and employing purging or cooptation as regime elite management techniques. Much of the literature suggests that there is a close relationship between personalism and the use of violence to maintain power, and thus suggests a connection between personalism and violent purges.MethodsUsing data from 109 autocracies from 1946 to 2008, we employ a seemingly unrelated negative binomial regression estimationResultsWe find that personalist regimes are not more likely to engage in purges when compared to other regimes. Further, the results suggest that personalist regimes are not more likely to rely on purges as an elite management strategy. In fact, our analysis suggests that personalism as a regime attribute (rather than as an institutional type) is associated with less (not more) use of purges and that personalism tends to be more associated with the use of cooptation than purges.ConclusionWe offer an explanation for these findings and suggest that future research should focus on the characteristics of the autocrat as a political agent when explaining the propensity to engage in different elite management techniques.
本文通过实证研究探讨了个人主义与将清洗或拉拢作为政权精英管理手段之间的关系。许多文献表明,个人主义与使用暴力维持权力之间存在密切关系,因此个人主义与暴力清洗之间也存在联系。方法利用 1946 年至 2008 年 109 个专制政权的数据,采用看似不相关的负二项回归估计结果我们发现,与其他政权相比,个人主义政权并不更有可能进行清洗。此外,结果还表明,个人主义政权并不更倾向于将清洗作为一种精英管理策略。事实上,我们的分析表明,个人主义作为一种政权属性(而不是一种制度类型)与较少(而不是较多)使用肃反相关,而且个人主义往往比肃反更倾向于与使用拉拢相关。
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引用次数: 0
Timing and responsiveness in American political advertising campaigns 美国政治广告活动中的时机和反应能力
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13391
Kevin K. Banda
ObjectiveThough candidates for political office use their campaigns to appeal to voters, they are unable to do so uninterrupted. Prior research suggests that they must respond to the advertising strategies employed by their opponents when determining their own strategies. How does this responsiveness vary across the campaign cycle?MethodsI test how general election television advertising responsiveness varies over the course of the campaign cycle using data from 256 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests.ResultsThe results of my analyses show that candidates' overall, negative, and (to an extent) issue‐based advertising strategies become less informed by their opponents' strategies as Election Day approaches.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that candidates use the early stages of their campaigns to find effective general advertising strategies and become less responsive to their opponents once they have done so. In other words, campaigns appear to stay on message to a greater extent as the campaign unfolds.
目的虽然政治职位候选人通过竞选活动来吸引选民,但他们不可能不间断地这样做。先前的研究表明,他们在确定自己的策略时必须对对手采用的广告策略做出反应。结果我的分析结果表明,随着选举日的临近,候选人的总体广告策略、负面广告策略以及(在一定程度上)基于议题的广告策略越来越少地参考对手的策略。换句话说,随着竞选活动的展开,候选人似乎在更大程度上保持了信息的一致性。
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引用次数: 0
Wakanda forever! Consistency in correlates of black nationalist tendencies 永远的瓦坎达黑人民族主义倾向相关因素的一致性
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13388
Tony N. Brown, Quintin Gorman, Autumn Raynor, Asia Bento, Julian Culver, Jauhara Ferguson
Objective:This study investigates correlates of black nationalist tendencies, defined as endorsing sentiments consistent with black nationalism. Black nationalism is an ideology that advocates for cultural, economic, political, and social separatism, and/or community autonomy and self‐reliance as survival tactics. Warrant for this study arises from the opinion black nationalism is an anachronism—a throwback to the 1920s, late 1960s, or early 1990s.Methods:We review correlates from prior studies. Then, using regression models and nationally representative data from black adults participating in the Outlook on Life Surveys, 2012, we address whether those correlates link with black nationalist tendencies today.Results:Few correlates from prior studies predict black nationalist tendencies today. However, correlates such as white antipathy and common fate remain robust predictors. Additionally, views of Barack Obama, whose political ascendency challenges certain tenets of black nationalism, are important correlates.Conclusion:White supremacy makes black nationalism durable and attractive; consequently, certain blacks will always endorse it.
目的:本研究调查了黑人民族主义倾向的相关因素,黑人民族主义倾向是指赞同与黑人民族主义一致的情绪。黑人民族主义是一种意识形态,主张文化、经济、政治和社会分离主义,和/或将社区自治和自力更生作为生存策略。有人认为黑人民族主义是一种不合时宜的思想--是 20 世纪 20 年代、60 年代末或 90 年代初的产物,因此有必要进行这项研究。然后,我们利用回归模型和具有全国代表性的黑人成年人参与 2012 年《生活展望调查》的数据,探讨这些相关因素是否与当今的黑人民族主义倾向有关。结果:以往研究中的相关因素很少能预测当今的黑人民族主义倾向。然而,反感白人和共同命运等相关因素仍然是强有力的预测因素。此外,对巴拉克-奥巴马的看法也是重要的相关因素,奥巴马在政治上的上位挑战了黑人民族主义的某些信条。
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引用次数: 0
State attachment and gubernatorial approval 州附属机构和州长批准
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13390
Jonathan Winburn, Daniel J. Fudge, Joseph Murphy, Bailey Griffin
ObjectiveThe purpose of this article is to examine what drives individual attitudes toward their governor with a focus on the role of place attachment as a means of diffuse support.MethodsUsing original surveys from March and May 2020, we test the role of place attachment in explaining gubernatorial approval.ResultsWe find state or place attachment is a strong predictor of gubernatorial approval especially among individuals who live in a state with a governor from the other party.ConclusionState attachment can be an important and unique influence on political attitudes toward state politics.
结果我们发现,州或地方依恋是州长支持率的有力预测因素,尤其是对于那些居住在州长来自其他党派的人来说。
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引用次数: 0
Are women politicians outperformed by men? The impact of gender on legislative activity in Japan 女性政治家的表现是否优于男性?性别对日本立法活动的影响
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13389
Yue Yin
ObjectivesGiven the distinct political landscape of Japan, this study aims to explore the impact of gender on the parliamentary behavior of Japanese legislators.MethodsUtilizing a self‐constructed data set covering the 44th–48th Diets (2005–2021), this study examines the individual‐level parliamentary activities of male and female legislators in Japan. Key metrics analyzed include the frequency of speeches delivered in both plenary and committee sessions, alongside the submission of memorandums to the Diet.ResultsThe findings indicate that on the whole, gender exerts only a minimal effect on parliamentary activities. However, upon closer examination of members belonging to opposition parties during specific time periods, female legislators emerge as more active in terms of questioning and memorandum submission compared to their male counterparts.ConclusionThis study unveils a noteworthy trend wherein women legislators in Japan demonstrate equal or greater engagement in parliamentary activities than their male counterparts. These findings underscore the importance of exploring gender dynamics within political systems beyond the Western sphere. Moreover, they emphasize the necessity for ongoing research into gender representation and participation within Japan's political arena.
研究目的鉴于日本独特的政治格局,本研究旨在探讨性别对日本立法者议会行为的影响。研究方法本研究利用自建数据集,涵盖第 44-48 届国会(2005-2021 年),考察了日本男性和女性立法者个人层面的议会活动。分析的主要指标包括在全体会议和委员会会议上的发言频率,以及向国会提交备忘录的情况。结果研究结果表明,总体而言,性别对议会活动的影响微乎其微。结论本研究揭示了一个值得注意的趋势,即日本女性议员在议会活动中的参与度与男性议员相当或更高。这些发现强调了在西方以外的政治体制中探索性别动态的重要性。此外,它们还强调了对日本政治舞台上的性别代表性和参与度进行持续研究的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Social Science Quarterly
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