Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102329
Haoyuan Ding , Junjie Tang , Mo Zhang
In the 21st century, African nations continue to grapple with recurring civil conflicts and persistent economic challenges. This study demonstrates a novel and critical channel through which wars hinder Africa's long-term growth: isolating African firms from global supply chains. Leveraging a unique dataset containing conflict data and information on supplier-customer relationships, we provide empirical evidence of the disruptive effects of neighboring conflicts on the overseas customer relationships of African firms. These conflicts impose multiple shadow costs on nearby peaceful nations. Furthermore, our findings show that wars cause more substantial harm to non-natural-resource industries in Africa, making it harder for them to maintain international customer relationships.
{"title":"The bad neighborhood effect: Supply chain disruptions arising from neighboring wars","authors":"Haoyuan Ding , Junjie Tang , Mo Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the 21st century, African nations continue to grapple with recurring civil conflicts and persistent economic challenges. This study demonstrates a novel and critical channel through which wars hinder Africa's long-term growth: isolating African firms from global supply chains. Leveraging a unique dataset containing conflict data and information on supplier-customer relationships, we provide empirical evidence of the disruptive effects of neighboring conflicts on the overseas customer relationships of African firms. These conflicts impose multiple shadow costs on nearby peaceful nations. Furthermore, our findings show that wars cause more substantial harm to non-natural-resource industries in Africa, making it harder for them to maintain international customer relationships.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102329"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102326
Hao Xiao , Bin Tang , Li Dai
Civil conflicts have replaced international conflicts as the primary political risk to the stability and prosperity of Africa, bringing uncertainty to foreign direct investment (FDI). Meanwhile, closer bilateral political relations provide institutional guarantee to safeguard the interests of stakeholders. This paper investigates the influence of civil conflicts on foreign direct investment in Africa, and the modulating role of bilateral political relations between home and host countries. We relax the assumption that all forms of civil conflicts are homogenous in the effects on FDI and construct a unique data set for FDI to Africa from China, the United States, and Europe between 2013 and 2019. The study results show significant FDI-deterring effects of civil conflict and one-sided violence, with the former more pronounced in low-income and sub-Saharan African countries and to Chinese and British investors. And closer bilateral political relations can alleviate the detrimental effects of civil conflicts, especially one-sided violence, on FDI. Our findings confirm the strategic role of bilateral relationship in ensuring the interest of Chinese multinational corporations and the stability and prosperity of African countries.
{"title":"The effects of African civil conflicts on FDI: The moderating role of bilateral political relations","authors":"Hao Xiao , Bin Tang , Li Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102326","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102326","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Civil conflicts have replaced international conflicts as the primary political risk to the stability and prosperity of Africa, bringing uncertainty to foreign direct investment (FDI). Meanwhile, closer bilateral political relations provide institutional guarantee to safeguard the interests of stakeholders. This paper investigates the influence of civil conflicts on foreign direct investment in Africa, and the modulating role of bilateral political relations between home and host countries. We relax the assumption that all forms of civil conflicts are homogenous in the effects on FDI and construct a unique data set for FDI to Africa from China, the United States, and Europe between 2013 and 2019. The study results show significant FDI-deterring effects of civil conflict and one-sided violence, with the former more pronounced in low-income and sub-Saharan African countries and to Chinese and British investors. And closer bilateral political relations can alleviate the detrimental effects of civil conflicts, especially one-sided violence, on FDI. Our findings confirm the strategic role of bilateral relationship in ensuring the interest of Chinese multinational corporations and the stability and prosperity of African countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102326"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China has been actively promoting the development of smart cities as part of its national agenda, which is seen as a way to enhance urban management and high-quality development. This paper intends to empirically investigate the impact of smart city policy on export technology sophistication, based on the prefectural-level dataset in China's 285 cities during the period 2005–2018. We also conduct a series of robustness tests including the parallel trend test and the placebo test. We then also investigate their heterogeneous nexus, and the potential impact mechanisms. The main findings are as follows. First, baseline results reveal the positive relationship between smart city policy and export technology sophistication, which highlights that smart city policy plays a significant role in accelerating export technology sophistication in China's cities. Second, we analyze their heterogeneity from the perspectives of the characteristics and endowments of the sample cities. Smart city policy shows a more effective promoting effect on export technology sophistication in the capital cities, large-and-medium cities, as well as resource-based cities. Third, the mechanism discussions indicate that environmental regulation and technological progress are two significant mediators, which means that smart city policy affects export technology sophistication by stimulating environmental regulation and technological progress. Our findings are of both theoretical and practical significance for realizing export upgrading.
{"title":"Smart city policy and export technology sophistication: Investigating linkages and potential pathways","authors":"Congyu Zhao , Ximing Luo , Cong Dong , Xiucheng Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has been actively promoting the development of smart cities as part of its national agenda, which is seen as a way to enhance urban management and high-quality development. This paper intends to empirically investigate the impact of smart city policy on export technology sophistication, based on the prefectural-level dataset in China's 285 cities during the period 2005–2018. We also conduct a series of robustness tests including the parallel trend test and the placebo test. We then also investigate their heterogeneous nexus, and the potential impact mechanisms. The main findings are as follows. First, baseline results reveal the positive relationship between smart city policy and export technology sophistication, which highlights that smart city policy plays a significant role in accelerating export technology sophistication in China's cities. Second, we analyze their heterogeneity from the perspectives of the characteristics and endowments of the sample cities. Smart city policy shows a more effective promoting effect on export technology sophistication in the capital cities, large-and-medium cities, as well as resource-based cities. Third, the mechanism discussions indicate that environmental regulation and technological progress are two significant mediators, which means that smart city policy affects export technology sophistication by stimulating environmental regulation and technological progress. Our findings are of both theoretical and practical significance for realizing export upgrading.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102333"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102328
Yue Deng , Aiya Feng , Dezhuang Hu
Drawing on data from the China Employer–Employee Survey, this study examines the effect of industrial robots on gender earnings disparities and delves into the underlying mechanisms. Our analysis reveals that male workers earn 16.3 % more per month than their female counterparts, with over 90 % of this gap originating within firms. Subsequently, we observe that firms adopting industrial robots tend to exhibit a narrower gender earnings gap within the firm. Additionally, we determine that the inverse relationship between industrial robots and the within-firm gender earnings gap is predominantly observed in the lowest-earning segment. These findings remain robust even when employing various robustness checks, including instrumental variable estimation. Further investigation uncovers that the reduction of the gender earnings gap within firms is achieved by firms disproportionally displacing female workers engaged in repetitive tasks; however, this may potentially exacerbate gender inequality across the entire labor market.
{"title":"Gender earnings gap in Chinese firms: Can it be narrowed by industrial robots?","authors":"Yue Deng , Aiya Feng , Dezhuang Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drawing on data from the China Employer–Employee Survey, this study examines the effect of industrial robots on gender earnings disparities and delves into the underlying mechanisms. Our analysis reveals that male workers earn 16.3 % more per month than their female counterparts, with over 90 % of this gap originating within firms. Subsequently, we observe that firms adopting industrial robots tend to exhibit a narrower gender earnings gap within the firm. Additionally, we determine that the inverse relationship between industrial robots and the within-firm gender earnings gap is predominantly observed in the lowest-earning segment. These findings remain robust even when employing various robustness checks, including instrumental variable estimation. Further investigation uncovers that the reduction of the gender earnings gap within firms is achieved by firms disproportionally displacing female workers engaged in repetitive tasks; however, this may potentially exacerbate gender inequality across the entire labor market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102328"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102336
Zhe Li , Pinjie Lyu , Jianfei Sun
We build a two-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates abatement technologies and search-and-matching frictions in the labor market to examine how different environmental regulations affect emission reduction and unemployment. By emphasizing the role of various decisions of micro firms, labor market frictions, and the cross-sectoral labor movement in the transmission process of environmental regulation, we demonstrate the conflict between environmental regulation and unemployment in different parts and aspects of economic behavior, providing a theoretical basis for analyzing and solving the contradiction of “environmental governance-economic sustainability-unemployment”. Using Chinese data to calibrate the model, we find that the equilibrium unemployment caused by the environmental regulation during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is far less than the reduction in production employment of directly regulated enterprises caused by the same environmental regulation, which proves that the econometric regression method with regulated enterprises as the research object will greatly overestimate the unemployment effect of environmental regulation. However, we predict that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as environmental regulations become stricter, the intertwining of strict regulations and labor market frictions will make the transfer effect less effective in mitigating the direct negative impact of environmental regulations on employment. We also discover that there are two main reasons why quotas generate less unemployment than emission taxes when the same total emission reduction target is achieved: (1) Quota leads to more job creation caused by abatement requirements, while emission tax does not cause such job creation until a reasonably high threshold is reached. The emission tax causes the shrinking of the polluting sector by adding the cost of the emission tax to the product price and transferring it to consumers, which boosts the negative scale effect of environmental regulation on unemployment. (2) Under the emission tax, more unemployed workers move into the clean sector, resulting in labor market congestion and economic structural imbalances, cutting down the ability of the clean sector to absorb unemployed workers.
{"title":"Environmental regulation and equilibrium unemployment in China: Evidence from a multiple-sector search and matching model","authors":"Zhe Li , Pinjie Lyu , Jianfei Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102336","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102336","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build a two-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates abatement technologies and search-and-matching frictions in the labor market to examine how different environmental regulations affect emission reduction and unemployment. By emphasizing the role of various decisions of micro firms, labor market frictions, and the cross-sectoral labor movement in the transmission process of environmental regulation, we demonstrate the conflict between environmental regulation and unemployment in different parts and aspects of economic behavior, providing a theoretical basis for analyzing and solving the contradiction of “environmental governance-economic sustainability-unemployment”. Using Chinese data to calibrate the model, we find that the equilibrium unemployment caused by the environmental regulation during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is far less than the reduction in production employment of directly regulated enterprises caused by the same environmental regulation, which proves that the econometric regression method with regulated enterprises as the research object will greatly overestimate the unemployment effect of environmental regulation. However, we predict that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as environmental regulations become stricter, the intertwining of strict regulations and labor market frictions will make the transfer effect less effective in mitigating the direct negative impact of environmental regulations on employment. We also discover that there are two main reasons why quotas generate less unemployment than emission taxes when the same total emission reduction target is achieved: (1) Quota leads to more job creation caused by abatement requirements, while emission tax does not cause such job creation until a reasonably high threshold is reached. The emission tax causes the shrinking of the polluting sector by adding the cost of the emission tax to the product price and transferring it to consumers, which boosts the negative scale effect of environmental regulation on unemployment. (2) Under the emission tax, more unemployed workers move into the clean sector, resulting in labor market congestion and economic structural imbalances, cutting down the ability of the clean sector to absorb unemployed workers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102336"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102337
Bingyan Yang , Ruiming Liu , Chuanbin Liu , Yang Shi
Many organizations worldwide have adopted up-or-out rules, but little causal evidence is provided on their effectiveness. Using the introduction of the up-or-out rules in China Shenzhen University in 2016, we provide the first causal evidence of the impact of the rules on organizational performance using the synthetic control method. We find that up-or-out rules significantly boosted the quantity and quality of publications at Shenzhen University relative to the counterfactuals. Specifically, the WOS, SCI, SSCI, journal impact factor (JIF) weighted WOS, JIF weighted SCI, and JIF weighted SSCI publications had an annual average increase of 1695, 1409, 215, 9278, 9145, and 812, which implied a 3.5-fold, 4.1-fold, 10.9-fold, 9.3-fold, 9.2-fold, and 19.7-fold increase, respectively, relative to the average output per year before the reform (2006–2015). The result remains robust after a series of tests. The mechanism analysis revealed that the increase was driven by the up-or-out rules' ability to effectively motivate both newcomers and incumbents to enhance their publication efforts. Further analysis indicates that the rise in English publications did not come at the expense of Chinese publications or the quality of teaching.
{"title":"Publish or perish: Up-or-out rules and research performance of universities","authors":"Bingyan Yang , Ruiming Liu , Chuanbin Liu , Yang Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102337","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102337","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many organizations worldwide have adopted up-or-out rules, but little causal evidence is provided on their effectiveness. Using the introduction of the up-or-out rules in China Shenzhen University in 2016, we provide the first causal evidence of the impact of the rules on organizational performance using the synthetic control method. We find that up-or-out rules significantly boosted the quantity and quality of publications at Shenzhen University relative to the counterfactuals. Specifically, the WOS, SCI, SSCI, journal impact factor (JIF) weighted WOS, JIF weighted SCI, and JIF weighted SSCI publications had an annual average increase of 1695, 1409, 215, 9278, 9145, and 812, which implied a 3.5-fold, 4.1-fold, 10.9-fold, 9.3-fold, 9.2-fold, and 19.7-fold increase, respectively, relative to the average output per year before the reform (2006–2015). The result remains robust after a series of tests. The mechanism analysis revealed that the increase was driven by the up-or-out rules' ability to effectively motivate both newcomers and incumbents to enhance their publication efforts. Further analysis indicates that the rise in English publications did not come at the expense of Chinese publications or the quality of teaching.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102337"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102327
Liwen Guo , Zhiming Cheng , Massimiliano Tani , Sarah Cook , Jiaqi Zhao , Xi Chen
We investigate the effect of exposure to air pollution on entrepreneurship using panel data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. To address endogeneity arising from location choices and omitted variable bias, we employ a two-way fixed effects model with an instrumental variable approach. We find that adults exposed to high levels of air pollution are unlikely to become employer entrepreneurs or have diversified household entrepreneurial activities. Specifically, a one unit increase in air pollution leads to a decrease in the propensity for entrepreneurship by 1.6 percentage points and a decrease in the likelihood of household entrepreneurial diversity by 2.1 percentage points. We find that risk propensity, networking consumption, self-efficacy, and the city's highly educated migrants are the main channels through which air pollution impacts entrepreneurship. Our findings also reveal that air pollution has a more significant negative impact on individuals with lower education levels compared to their more educated counterparts.
{"title":"Air pollution and entrepreneurship","authors":"Liwen Guo , Zhiming Cheng , Massimiliano Tani , Sarah Cook , Jiaqi Zhao , Xi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102327","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102327","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the effect of exposure to air pollution on entrepreneurship using panel data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. To address endogeneity arising from location choices and omitted variable bias, we employ a two-way fixed effects model with an instrumental variable approach. We find that adults exposed to high levels of air pollution are unlikely to become employer entrepreneurs or have diversified household entrepreneurial activities. Specifically, a one unit increase in air pollution leads to a decrease in the propensity for entrepreneurship by 1.6 percentage points and a decrease in the likelihood of household entrepreneurial diversity by 2.1 percentage points. We find that risk propensity, networking consumption, self-efficacy, and the city's highly educated migrants are the main channels through which air pollution impacts entrepreneurship. Our findings also reveal that air pollution has a more significant negative impact on individuals with lower education levels compared to their more educated counterparts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102327"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102315
Yulin Liu , Hebo Li , Cheng Wang
Economic uncertainty is becoming increasingly apparent, and under the unbalanced “pyramid” internal hierarchical structure of the middle-income group, some middle-income groups are on the brink of decline. This study uses microdata from the Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2020 to prospectively predict the vulnerability of the middle-income group and examine whether digital financial inclusion can alleviate the vulnerability of this group. We find that the vulnerability risk of China's middle-income group is prominent and that digital financial inclusion can mitigate vulnerability risk. Moreover, its marginal effect is most evident for those on the edge of the lower bound of the middle-income group, which indicates that digital financial inclusion creates more opportunities for groups at the bottom of the distribution to share the benefits of development. Further research reveals that digital financial inclusion stimulates the vitality of household innovation and entrepreneurship, promotes participation in financial markets, expands operating income channels, enriches sources of property income, and thereby enhances the stability of the household income structure, consolidating the position of the middle-income group in the income distribution pattern. This study provides new ideas for China and other developing countries to explore feasible paths for stabilizing and expanding the middle-income group.
{"title":"Digital financial inclusion and middle-income group vulnerability alleviation: Evidence from China","authors":"Yulin Liu , Hebo Li , Cheng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic uncertainty is becoming increasingly apparent, and under the unbalanced “pyramid” internal hierarchical structure of the middle-income group, some middle-income groups are on the brink of decline. This study uses microdata from the Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2020 to prospectively predict the vulnerability of the middle-income group and examine whether digital financial inclusion can alleviate the vulnerability of this group. We find that the vulnerability risk of China's middle-income group is prominent and that digital financial inclusion can mitigate vulnerability risk. Moreover, its marginal effect is most evident for those on the edge of the lower bound of the middle-income group, which indicates that digital financial inclusion creates more opportunities for groups at the bottom of the distribution to share the benefits of development. Further research reveals that digital financial inclusion stimulates the vitality of household innovation and entrepreneurship, promotes participation in financial markets, expands operating income channels, enriches sources of property income, and thereby enhances the stability of the household income structure, consolidating the position of the middle-income group in the income distribution pattern. This study provides new ideas for China and other developing countries to explore feasible paths for stabilizing and expanding the middle-income group.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102315"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102314
Le Yu , Yuan Chen , Siqi Zhang
Regional adaptability in staple grain production is fundamental to agricultural clustering, yet the impact of climate change on spatial distribution of grain cultivation remains understudied. This study uses recent county-level data from 2000 to 2019 in China and employs an empirical framework that incorporates 10-year averages of weather variables to analyze regional variations in grain acreage in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Our findings reveal significant regional heterogeneity: increases in temperature and precipitation generally lead to an expansion of staple grain acreage in initially colder or drier regions. These findings remain robust after accounting for a range of confounding factors. Mechanism analysis indicates that these climate-induced changes in grain acreage stem from variations in land productivity. Furthermore, the study identifies shifts in comparative advantages among staple grains across regions: rising temperatures favor paddy over corn in colder regions and corn over wheat in warmer areas, while increased precipitation enhances corn's advantage over wheat in arid regions. These findings have important implications for designing effective adaptation policies to sustain grain production in China's agricultural clusters and ensure food security targets.
{"title":"Climate change and staple grain acreage: Regional adaptation in China's agricultural cluster","authors":"Le Yu , Yuan Chen , Siqi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Regional adaptability in staple grain production is fundamental to agricultural clustering, yet the impact of climate change on spatial distribution of grain cultivation remains understudied. This study uses recent county-level data from 2000 to 2019 in China and employs an empirical framework that incorporates 10-year averages of weather variables to analyze regional variations in grain acreage in response to changes in temperature and precipitation. Our findings reveal significant regional heterogeneity: increases in temperature and precipitation generally lead to an expansion of staple grain acreage in initially colder or drier regions. These findings remain robust after accounting for a range of confounding factors. Mechanism analysis indicates that these climate-induced changes in grain acreage stem from variations in land productivity. Furthermore, the study identifies shifts in comparative advantages among staple grains across regions: rising temperatures favor paddy over corn in colder regions and corn over wheat in warmer areas, while increased precipitation enhances corn's advantage over wheat in arid regions. These findings have important implications for designing effective adaptation policies to sustain grain production in China's agricultural clusters and ensure food security targets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102314"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102330
Shan Hu, Nan Jia
This study compiles and analyzes household registration reform policy documents from 283 prefectural-level cities in China, constructing a policy variable for “full liberalization of household registration.” This variable is then matched with individual-level data from the China Household Finance Survey. Employing a Regression Discontinuity Difference-in-Differences (RD-DID) approach, this study identify the causal effect of the “full liberalization of household registration” on rural labor migration decisions. The study finds that the policy significantly increases the migration of rural labor, reduces return migration, promotes the accompanying migration of family members (elderly and children) and increases the rate of family migration, and alleviates the problems of elderly and left-behind. However, the effect of short-distance mobility is more substantial than that of long-distance mobility. The results of the mechanism analysis show that the policy does not raise labor force income(but may decrease it), but promotes the comprehensive sharing of basic public services such as education and healthcare among the migrants, an important factor driving labor migration.
{"title":"The impact of the “Full Liberalization of Household Registration” policy on the free migration of rural labor","authors":"Shan Hu, Nan Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study compiles and analyzes household registration reform policy documents from 283 prefectural-level cities in China, constructing a policy variable for “full liberalization of household registration.” This variable is then matched with individual-level data from the China Household Finance Survey. Employing a Regression Discontinuity Difference-in-Differences (RD-DID) approach, this study identify the causal effect of the “full liberalization of household registration” on rural labor migration decisions. The study finds that the policy significantly increases the migration of rural labor, reduces return migration, promotes the accompanying migration of family members (elderly and children) and increases the rate of family migration, and alleviates the problems of elderly and left-behind. However, the effect of short-distance mobility is more substantial than that of long-distance mobility. The results of the mechanism analysis show that the policy does not raise labor force income(but may decrease it), but promotes the comprehensive sharing of basic public services such as education and healthcare among the migrants, an important factor driving labor migration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"89 ","pages":"Article 102330"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号