IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102589

Yihong Ding , Elizabeth Robinson , Kelvin Balcombe

This paper extends the existing individual decision-making framework of adapting to climate change by considering the effects of prior personal experience in shaping risk preferences. Conducting Prospect Theory-based “lab-in-field” risk experiments in rural areas of Xinjiang Province, we elicit Chinese farmers' risk curvature and probability bias by adopting more flexible Prelec's two-parameter probability functions. Using Bayesian approaches to estimation, we find that farmers' prior experiences not only provide information that influences the subjective distributions of future outcomes but also, by shaping farmers' personal risk preferences, affects how farmers absorb and update this information. As such, our research suggests that individual risk preferences can evolve, and the effects of personal experience on preferences exhibit distinct patterns depending on whether farmers face benefits or losses. Experiencing production damages tends to make farmers more averse to losses and increases their optimistic bias concerning personal loss risks. A policy implication of these findings is that it is crucial to reduce farmers' cognitive biases regarding their own climate-related losses and their over-reliance on personal experiences in order to make accurate risk management decisions.

本文通过考虑先前的个人经验对形成风险偏好的影响，扩展了现有的适应气候变化的个人决策框架。在新疆省农村开展基于前景理论的“实验室-田间”风险实验，采用更灵活的Prelec双参数概率函数，推导出中国农民的风险曲率和概率偏差。使用贝叶斯方法进行估计，我们发现农民的先验经验不仅提供了影响未来结果主观分布的信息，而且通过塑造农民的个人风险偏好，影响农民如何吸收和更新这些信息。因此，我们的研究表明，个体的风险偏好是可以进化的，个人经历对偏好的影响表现出不同的模式，这取决于农民面临的是利益还是损失。经历生产损失往往使农民更厌恶损失，并增加他们对个人损失风险的乐观偏见。这些发现的一个政策含义是，为了做出准确的风险管理决策，减少农民对自身气候相关损失的认知偏见和对个人经验的过度依赖至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

A generative artificial intelligence approach to tracking Chinese Mainland's housing market sentiment using social media data 利用社交媒体数据跟踪中国内地房地产市场情绪的生成式人工智能方法

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102588

Zhang Wu, Michael Cheng, Philip Ng, Yixuan Wang

This paper develops a daily housing market sentiment index that leverages Chinese social media data and generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI). We adopt a human-in-the-loop methodology and find that the GenAI assessments align closely with human evaluations. Compared to conventional methods, GenAI also offers methodological advantages and arguably provides a more reliable measurement of sentiment. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that the GenAI-driven sentiment index effectively captures public sentiment trends and robustly drives property sales. Furthermore, we utilise GenAI's strong comprehension abilities to identify cities mentioned in microblogs, thereby creating more granular sentiment indices at the city level. These city-level sentiment indices prove useful in predicting local property sales and revealing significant sentiment spillovers from major to smaller cities. Our research offers policymakers enhanced tools for timely market monitoring and underscores the transformative potential of GenAI in research and macroeconomic surveillance, enabling the analysis of previously unmanageable big and unstructured data.

本文利用中国社交媒体数据和生成式人工智能（GenAI）开发了一个每日房地产市场情绪指数。我们采用了人在循环的方法，发现GenAI评估与人类评估密切一致。与传统方法相比，GenAI在方法上也有优势，可以提供更可靠的情绪测量。我们的实证分析表明，genai驱动的情绪指数有效地捕捉了公众情绪趋势，并有力地推动了房地产销售。此外，我们利用GenAI强大的理解能力来识别微博中提到的城市，从而在城市层面创建更细粒度的情感指数。事实证明，这些城市层面的情绪指数有助于预测当地房地产销售，并揭示从大城市到小城市的重大情绪溢出效应。我们的研究为决策者提供了及时监测市场的增强工具，并强调了GenAI在研究和宏观经济监测方面的变革潜力，使分析以前无法管理的大数据和非结构化数据成为可能。

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引用次数: 0

Social norms alleviate the disadvantaged positions of elderly people in charity markets 社会规范缓解了老年人在慈善市场中的弱势地位

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102587

Xinrui Wu , Ziming Liu , Shuyi Feng

Charitable giving is an important supplement to social insurance programs. However, potential recipients of different ages may have unequal access to charitable donations. This study uses discrete choice experiments to investigate how the age of potential recipients may affect individuals' willingness to donate, and it uses survey experiments to examine the nudge effects of social norms on individuals' preferences for donating to elderly people. The results from 1146 Chinese internet users show that a one-year increase in the age of potential recipients decreases individuals' willingness to donate by approximately 2.094 CNY. Relative to a 20-year-old potential recipient, donors' willingness to give decreases by 54.358, 98.028, and 152.862 CNY for recipients aged 45, 70, and 90, respectively. Descriptive social norms and injunctive social norms can nudge individuals' willingness to donate to elderly people, increasing the marginal willingness to pay by 1.487 and 0.803 CNY, respectively. This work documents the disadvantaged positions of elderly people in charity markets and provides insights for promoting donation to elderly people in aging societies.

慈善捐赠是对社会保险制度的重要补充。然而，不同年龄的潜在接受者获得慈善捐赠的机会可能不平等。本研究采用离散选择实验考察了潜在受赠者的年龄对个人捐赠意愿的影响，并采用调查实验考察了社会规范对个人对老年人捐赠偏好的助推效应。对1146名中国互联网用户的调查结果显示，潜在受赠人的年龄每增加一岁，个人捐赠意愿就会减少约2.094元。相对于20岁的潜在受赠人，45岁、70岁和90岁受赠人的捐赠意愿分别下降了54.358元、98.028元和152.862元。描述性社会规范和禁令性社会规范可以推动个体对老年人的捐赠意愿，边际支付意愿分别增加1.487元和0.803元。这项工作记录了老年人在慈善市场中的弱势地位，为在老龄化社会中促进对老年人的捐赠提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Socioeconomic status and inequalities in early development of non-cognitive skills: Evidence from China 非认知技能早期发展中的社会经济地位和不平等：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102586

Dongqin Wang , Minghong Shen , Xiaogang Wu

Non-cognitive skills are a critical component of human capital. This paper investigates the associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and early childhood non-cognitive development, using data from the Survey of Early Education, Development, and Strengths (SEEDS) conducted among kindergarten-aged children in Hangzhou, China. Using a machine learning approach with the Ages and Stages Questionnaire: Social-Emotional (ASQ:SE), we identify a high family annual income and parental university education as the strongest indicators linked to non-cognitive skill development. Employing OLS and fixed effects models, we find robust positive associations between these SES factors and children's non-cognitive outcomes. Children from high-income households with university-educated parents exhibit the highest skill levels across domains such as communication, self-regulation, autonomy, and socialization—a pattern of “double advantage.” Our analysis further reveals that parenting styles and financial investments are closely related to these disparities. These findings highlight the need for policies targeting multidimensional SES barriers to mitigate early-life inequalities and promote human capital development and socioeconomic mobility.

非认知技能是人力资本的重要组成部分。本文利用杭州市幼儿园幼儿早期教育、发展与优势调查（SEEDS）的数据，研究了社会经济地位（SES）与幼儿非认知发展之间的关系。使用年龄和阶段问卷：社会情感（ASQ:SE）的机器学习方法，我们确定高家庭年收入和父母的大学教育是与非认知技能发展相关的最强指标。采用OLS和固定效应模型，我们发现这些社会经济地位因素与儿童的非认知结果之间存在显著的正相关。父母受过大学教育的高收入家庭的孩子在沟通、自我调节、自主和社交等领域表现出最高的技能水平——一种“双重优势”模式。我们的分析进一步表明，父母教养方式和财务投资与这些差异密切相关。这些发现突出表明，需要制定针对多维社会经济地位障碍的政策，以减轻早期生活不平等，促进人力资本开发和社会经济流动性。

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引用次数: 0

Improving education levels of BRI participating economies: Evidence from the Education Action Plan for the Belt and Road Initiative 提升“一带一路”参与经济体教育水平：来自“一带一路”教育行动计划的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102584

Yue Pu , Xinyi Zeng , Tao Chen

As a pivotal measure for educational internationalization, the Education Action Plan for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is of great significance for promoting educational equity and fostering the common development of education in BRI participating countries and regions. Based on sample data from 191 economies spanning 2010 to 2023, this study adopts the difference-in-differences (DID) method to evaluate the impact of the Education Action Plan for the BRI on the educational attainment of BRI participating economies. The empirical results reveal that the Education Action Plan for the BRI significantly improves the education levels of BRI participating countries and regions, and the conclusion is robust. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy's impact is more effective for females, developing economies, and non-adjacent BRI economies. Finally, the mechanism analysis indicates that the Education Action Plan for the BRI mainly improves the education levels of BRI participating economies through international students' education in China, cultural product trade, and vocational education.

《“一带一路”教育行动计划》作为教育国际化的关键举措，对于促进“一带一路”沿线国家和地区教育公平、促进教育共同发展具有重要意义。基于2010 - 2023年191个经济体的样本数据，本研究采用差异中差异（DID）方法评估了“一带一路”教育行动计划对参与经济体受教育程度的影响。实证结果表明，《“一带一路”教育行动计划》显著提高了参与国和地区的教育水平，结论具有稳健性。异质性分析表明，该政策对女性、发展中经济体和非相邻“一带一路”经济体的影响更为有效。最后，机制分析表明，《“一带一路”教育行动计划》主要通过来华留学生教育、文化产品贸易和职业教育提升“一带一路”参与经济体的教育水平。

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引用次数: 0

The gig economy and household financial vulnerability 零工经济和家庭财务脆弱性

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102581

Gecheng Yuan , Weijie Lu , Xinyi Wu , Li Zhou

Using a combination of manually collected data and the China Household Finance Survey from 2011 to 2019, we explore the effect of the gig economy on household financial vulnerability. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the spatial and temporal variation in the presence of ride-hailing and food delivery services across Chinese cities. Employing a staggered difference-in-difference (DID) strategy, we find that the entry of gig platforms into a city is associated with a 5.97 % reduction in household financial vulnerability. This effect is more pronounced among households with lower wealth levels, lower female employment ratios, lower educational levels, as well as among households in poorer regions and areas with higher unemployment rates. To shed light on the mechanisms, we provide evidence that the entry of gig platforms provides households with additional income sources, reduces their liquidity constraints, and improves entrepreneurial quality. Our study contributes to the literature by highlighting the potential of the gig economy to serve as a buffer against financial instability, particularly for vulnerable populations.

我们结合2011年至2019年的人工收集数据和《中国家庭金融调查》，探讨了零工经济对家庭金融脆弱性的影响。为了解决内生性问题，我们利用了中国城市中网约车和外卖服务的时空变化。采用交错差中差（DID）策略，我们发现零工平台进入城市与家庭财务脆弱性降低5.97%有关。这种影响在财富水平较低、女性就业率较低、受教育程度较低的家庭以及较贫穷地区和失业率较高地区的家庭中更为明显。为了阐明这一机制，我们提供的证据表明，零工平台的进入为家庭提供了额外的收入来源，减少了他们的流动性约束，并提高了创业质量。我们的研究通过强调零工经济作为金融不稳定缓冲的潜力，特别是对弱势群体来说，为文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

The paradox of assistance: Chinese aid in Africa and economic expectations 援助的悖论：中国对非洲的援助与经济预期

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102579

Jialiang Zhu , Philip Akrofi Atitianti , Michael Appiah-Kubi , Joseph Amoah

This paper examines how exposure to Chinese development projects shapes economic expectations in Africa. We link AidData's geocoded project records to 70,060 Afrobarometer interviews from 2005 to 2023 and identify effects using a shift–share instrumental variables design that interacts movements in Chinese construction-input costs with pre-sample allocation patterns. We find that living within 25 km of an active Chinese project lowers the probability that respondents expect national economic conditions to improve and, more modestly, reduces optimism about their own living conditions. Mechanism tests show that exposure raises perceived corruption—especially of national officials—and erodes trust in the presidency, parliament, and local councils; higher perceived corruption is monotonically associated with lower economic optimism. Results are robust across alternative instrument lags, distance thresholds, and spatial-spillover controls, and they do not generalize to placebo outcomes or to analogous estimates for World Bank projects. The evidence reconciles mixed views of Chinese aid by highlighting governance signals as the channel through which localized experiences translate into both macro- and micro-oriented expectations.

本文考察了中国发展项目如何影响非洲的经济预期。我们将AidData的地理编码项目记录与2005年至2023年期间的70,060次非洲晴雨表访谈联系起来，并使用偏移份额工具变量设计确定影响，该设计将中国建筑投入成本的变动与样本前分配模式相互作用。我们发现，居住在一个活跃的中国项目的25公里范围内，降低了受访者预期国家经济状况改善的可能性，更温和地说，降低了他们对自己生活条件的乐观态度。机制测试表明，曝光会增加人们对腐败的感知——尤其是对国家官员——并侵蚀人们对总统、议会和地方议会的信任；较高的腐败感知与较低的经济乐观情绪单调相关。结果在替代工具滞后、距离阈值和空间溢出控制方面都是稳健的，并且不能推广到安慰剂结果或世界银行项目的类似估计。这些证据调和了对中国援助的不同看法，强调了治理信号是将本地化经验转化为宏观和微观导向期望的渠道。

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引用次数: 0

Automation and household conflict: How industrial robots reduce domestic violence risk 自动化与家庭冲突：工业机器人如何降低家庭暴力风险

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102577

Weibing Li, Mingyang Li, Siyuan Chen

Existing studies have extensively examined the impact of industrial robots on the labor market but have paid relatively less attention to their effects on micro-level family behavior. This paper constructs a domestic violence risk index using court judgements and finds a significant negative impact of industrial robots on domestic violence risk. A series of robustness checks validates the credibility of this conclusion. Mechanism analysis indicates that industrial robots contribute to reducing the risk of domestic violence by promoting women's economic empowerment, increasing their educational attainment, and improving psychological well-being—particularly among men. Moreover, the negative effect of industrial robots on domestic violence risk is particularly pronounced in regions with lower levels of traditional culture or economic development, as well as higher levels of population mobility and vocational training. This research sheds light on the unforeseen social consequences of industrial intelligence and provides empirical evidence for preventing domestic violence.

现有的研究已经广泛地研究了工业机器人对劳动力市场的影响，但相对较少关注它们对微观层面家庭行为的影响。本文利用法院判决构建了家庭暴力风险指数，发现工业机器人对家庭暴力风险存在显著的负向影响。一系列的稳健性检验验证了这一结论的可信度。机制分析表明，工业机器人通过促进妇女的经济赋权、提高她们的受教育程度和改善心理健康（尤其是男性），有助于降低家庭暴力的风险。此外，在传统文化或经济发展水平较低、人口流动性和职业培训水平较高的地区，工业机器人对家庭暴力风险的负面影响尤为明显。本研究揭示了工业智能不可预见的社会后果，并为预防家庭暴力提供了经验证据。

引用次数: 0

Can digital transformation expand the boundaries of the earnings potential of commercial banks? Evidence from China 数字化转型能否拓展商业银行盈利潜力的边界？来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102576

Ning Zhu , Biyin Ma , Bing Wang , Xuan Tang , Zhiqian Yu

Digital transformation (DT), as a multidimensional indicator for reshaping the profitability models of commercial banks, has become the focus of attention in the banking sector. This paper models a two-stage banking technology that incorporates DT as an intermediate variable to measure its effects on banking earning potential (EP). Moreover, nonparametric local polynomial regression and coupling analysis are adopted to examine the mechanism through which DT affects banking EP. Additionally, a comparative analysis is conducted to assess the heterogeneous effects of three subdimensions of DT and three bank types. For the empirical analysis, 175 Chinese commercial banks are used as samples for the period 2010–2021. DT has a nonlinear positive effect on banking EP, with state-owned commercial banks outperforming joint-stock commercial banks and small commercial banks. However, there are potential conflicts among the three subdimensions of DT. With respect to the disaggregation of banking EP, DT expands banking EP primarily by increasing potential profits. However, DT has the potential to increase the degree of credit risk exposure associated with nonperforming loans. Finally, sensitivity analysis confirms the stability of the results and calculates the importance of each variable in shaping banking EP. This paper can provide theoretical insights and practical guidance for Chinese commercial banks in optimizing DT strategies while balancing profitability enhancement with risk management.

数字化转型作为重塑商业银行盈利模式的多维指标，已成为银行业关注的焦点。本文建立了一个两阶段银行技术模型，将DT作为中间变量来衡量其对银行盈利潜力（EP）的影响。此外，采用非参数局部多项式回归和耦合分析来考察DT影响银行EP的机制。此外，本文还对DT的三个子维度和三种银行类型的异质性效应进行了比较分析。实证分析以中国175家商业银行为样本，时间跨度为2010-2021年。DT对银行绩效有非线性正向影响，国有商业银行绩效优于股份制商业银行和小商业银行。然而，DT的三个子维度之间存在潜在的冲突。对于银行业利润的分解，DT主要通过增加潜在利润来扩大银行业利润。然而，DT有可能增加与不良贷款相关的信用风险暴露程度。最后，通过敏感性分析验证了结果的稳定性，并计算了各变量对银行收益形成的重要性。本文可以为我国商业银行在平衡盈利能力提升与风险管理的同时优化DT战略提供理论见解和实践指导。

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引用次数: 0

Global value chain position, industrial policy, and bank loan allocation: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms 全球价值链地位、产业政策与银行贷款配置：来自中国制造业企业的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102575

ShiYi Liu, HaiYue Liu, WeiKe Li

The rapid expansion of global value chains (GVCs) has deepened interconnections among countries and regions and reshaped industrial strategies and domestic capital allocations. Using a dataset of 2600 listed manufacturing firms in China from 2005 to 2020, this study finds that firms in industries that have lower GVC positions (LGPI firms), such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced materials, obtain a greater number of bank loans, particularly medium- and long-term loans and policy bank loans. The relationship is more pronounced for firms in regional strategic pillar and technology-intensive industries, state-owned firms, and those with lower operational risks and stronger debt repayment capacity. The main mechanisms include a compensatory effect (compensation for emerging strategic firms), a strategic response effect (response to the China-U.S. trade friction), and a technological support effect (support for firm R&D and digital transformation). The economic consequence tests indicate that the higher number of bank loans allocated to LGPI firms improves their total factor productivity and innovation patent output. Collectively, our findings reveal the evolving GVC competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector and the significant role financial institutions play in strengthening these less dominant but strategically important industries.

全球价值链的快速扩张，深化了国家和地区之间的联系，重塑了产业战略和国内资本配置。利用2005 - 2020年中国2600家制造业上市公司的数据，研究发现，新能源、航空航天、先进材料等全球价值链地位较低的行业（LGPI）的企业获得的银行贷款更多，尤其是中长期贷款和政策性银行贷款。这种关系在区域战略支柱和技术密集型产业、国有企业、经营风险较低、偿债能力较强的企业中更为明显。其主要机制包括补偿效应（对新兴战略企业的补偿）、战略响应效应（对中美战略企业的响应）和战略响应效应。贸易摩擦)和技术支持效应（对企业研发和数字化转型的支持）。经济后果检验表明，银行贷款越多，低成本企业的全要素生产率和创新专利产出越高。总体而言，我们的研究结果揭示了中国制造业全球价值链竞争力的演变，以及金融机构在加强这些不太占主导地位但具有重要战略意义的行业方面发挥的重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

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