中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

Climate change, electricity reliability, and energy structure: County-level evidence from China 气候变化、电力可靠性和能源结构：来自中国的县级证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102500

Mingwei Yu , Fang Xia , Li Su , Feng Song

Anecdotal evidence suggests that climate change and the widespread adoption of renewable energy may negatively impact power reliability, potentially causing significant economic damage. However, rigorous quantitative studies exploring the relationship among climate change, energy structure, and power reliability remain scarce, primarily due to the lack of reliable measures for assessing power reliability. Using county-level data from China between 2013 and 2019, we propose a novel method to construct a proxy variable that measures electricity reliability at a broad geographic scale and high temporal frequency using satellite data. This innovative approach enables us to empirically investigate the effects of climate change on electricity reliability and the heterogeneous impacts based on local energy structure. Our findings provide strong evidence that hot weather, precipitations, and wind power generation compromise electricity reliability, consistent with theoretical predictions, whereas the impacts of solar energy are not robust due to low penetration rate. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analysis reveals that thermal power and solar energy could exacerbate the adverse effects of climate change, underscoring the need for enhanced services to ensure electricity security.

坊间证据表明，气候变化和可再生能源的广泛采用可能对电力可靠性产生负面影响，可能造成重大的经济损失。然而，对气候变化、能源结构和电力可靠性之间关系的严谨定量研究仍然很少，这主要是由于缺乏可靠的评估电力可靠性的措施。利用2013年至2019年中国县级数据，我们提出了一种新的方法来构建一个代理变量，该变量使用卫星数据来衡量大地理尺度和高时间频率下的电力可靠性。这种创新的方法使我们能够实证研究气候变化对电力可靠性的影响以及基于局部能源结构的异质影响。我们的研究结果提供了强有力的证据，表明炎热的天气、降水和风力发电会损害电力可靠性，这与理论预测一致，而太阳能的影响由于渗透率低而不那么强大。此外，我们的异质性分析表明，火电和太阳能可能加剧气候变化的不利影响，强调需要加强服务以确保电力安全。

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引用次数: 0

Does party organization construction improve chinese banks' stability? Evidence from a new textual index 党组织建设对银行稳定性有促进作用吗？来自新文本索引的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102541

Lu Wei , Mingye Wei , Yifei Wu , Zhongbo Jing

According to China's newly revised Company Law (2024), companies are required to establish Communist Party of China (CPC; also, Party) organizations because Party-related activities are crucial for banks' stability. This study innovatively constructs a textual indicator to measure the development, governance, and education of the CPC organization based on annual reports. Then, we investigate the impact of Party organization construction on bankruptcy risk in 16 publicly listed banks from 2017 to 2022. Statistical analysis reveals that banks are gradually making efforts to enhance and improve internal Party organization construction. Moreover, overall Party organization construction reduces bank failure risk by inhibiting banks from engaging in high-risk business, such as interbank and shadow banking business. Compared with the Party organization construction dimensions of development and governance, the education of Party organization can better reduce bankruptcy risk. Furthermore, this reduction effect is more pronounced for state-owned banks, bigger banks, banks with profitability pressures and under financial distress, and during the pandemic period. This study expands the study of bank failure risk from the corporate governance perspective, showing that the Party organization construction contributes to safeguarding financial stability.

根据中国新修订的《公司法》（2024年），公司必须建立中国共产党（CPC）组织，因为与党的有关的活动对银行的稳定至关重要。本文创新性地构建了基于年度报告的中国共产党组织发展、治理和教育的文本指标。然后，我们研究了2017 - 2022年16家上市银行党组织建设对破产风险的影响。统计分析表明，银行正在逐步加强和改进内部党组织建设。此外，全面的党组织建设通过抑制银行从事同业和影子银行等高风险业务来降低银行倒闭风险。与党组织建设的发展和治理维度相比，党组织教育可以更好地降低破产风险。此外，对于国有银行、规模较大的银行、面临盈利压力和财务困境的银行以及疫情期间，这种减产效应更为明显。本研究从公司治理视角拓展了对银行倒闭风险的研究，表明党组织建设有助于维护金融稳定。

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引用次数: 0

Centralized procurement authority and corporate innovation 集中采购权与企业创新

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102544

Xiao Jia , Xiaoxi Li , Boluo Liu , Nan Shao

Leveraging the establishment of the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) in China as an external policy change, we demonstrate that the government's centralized control over drug procurement platform and insurance coverage catalog significantly enhances the innovation activities of pharmaceutical companies. By manually adjusting for expenditures of passing consistency evaluation, we accurately measure effective research and development inputs. Further tests reveal two key mechanisms driving our result: first, NHSA policies negatively impact firms' financial performance and stock returns, leading affected firms to invest more in innovation; second, increased competition further incentivizes innovation, especially among firms that lose more market shares. Importantly, companies with stronger internal resources are more successful in translating these pressures into effective innovation. Our results show that the NHSA not only redefines competitive dynamics but also acts as a powerful catalyst for pharmaceutical innovation, contributing to the understanding of the policy implications of centralized public procurement.

我们利用中国国家医疗保障局的成立作为外部政策变化，证明政府对药品采购平台和保险覆盖目录的集中控制显著增强了制药公司的创新活动。通过手动调整通过一致性评估的支出，我们准确地衡量有效的研发投入。进一步的检验揭示了驱动我们的结果的两个关键机制：第一，国家保障金政策对企业的财务绩效和股票收益产生负向影响，导致受影响的企业更多地投资于创新；其次，竞争的加剧进一步激励了创新，尤其是那些失去更多市场份额的公司。重要的是，拥有更强大内部资源的公司更能成功地将这些压力转化为有效的创新。我们的研究结果表明，NHSA不仅重新定义了竞争动态，而且还作为制药创新的强大催化剂，有助于理解集中公共采购的政策含义。

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引用次数: 0

Unintended negative impact of environmental regulation on public safety: Evidence from China 环境规制对公共安全的意外负面影响：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102562

Yichuan Zhang , Jiezhong Shen , Tianyun Zhu

This paper investigates the unintended effect of air pollution regulations on public safety. Based on a city-level panel data set, we document first evidence of the causal relationship between environmental regulations and crime rate, using difference-in-differences approach. Specifically, we find that the well-known “2+26” work plan of air pollution control for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Atmospheric Pollution Transmission Corridor increased the incidence of intentional injury, provocation and troublemaking, dangerous driving, theft, and robbery in a statistical sense. Regarding the underlying mechanism, environmental regulations may cause substantial job displacement, which in turn triggers negative emotions and psychological distress, ultimately increasing both economically motivated and emotionally driven crimes. Our empirical results imply extra social cost of environmental regulations, which has been mostly overlooked in the literature.

本文研究了空气污染法规对公共安全的意外影响。基于城市层面的面板数据集，我们使用差异中的差异方法首次记录了环境法规与犯罪率之间因果关系的证据。具体而言，我们发现，众所周知的京津冀大气污染输送走廊大气污染治理“2+26”工作计划在统计意义上增加了故意伤害、挑衅滋事、危险驾驶、盗窃和抢劫的发生率。就其潜在机制而言，环境法规可能导致大量的工作岗位流失，进而引发负面情绪和心理困扰，最终增加经济动机和情感驱动的犯罪。我们的实证结果暗示了环境法规的额外社会成本，这在文献中大多被忽视。

引用次数: 0

The role of experience in climate adaptation: Evidence from a field experiment in China 经验在气候适应中的作用：来自中国野外试验的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102589

Yihong Ding , Elizabeth Robinson , Kelvin Balcombe

This paper extends the existing individual decision-making framework of adapting to climate change by considering the effects of prior personal experience in shaping risk preferences. Conducting Prospect Theory-based “lab-in-field” risk experiments in rural areas of Xinjiang Province, we elicit Chinese farmers' risk curvature and probability bias by adopting more flexible Prelec's two-parameter probability functions. Using Bayesian approaches to estimation, we find that farmers' prior experiences not only provide information that influences the subjective distributions of future outcomes but also, by shaping farmers' personal risk preferences, affects how farmers absorb and update this information. As such, our research suggests that individual risk preferences can evolve, and the effects of personal experience on preferences exhibit distinct patterns depending on whether farmers face benefits or losses. Experiencing production damages tends to make farmers more averse to losses and increases their optimistic bias concerning personal loss risks. A policy implication of these findings is that it is crucial to reduce farmers' cognitive biases regarding their own climate-related losses and their over-reliance on personal experiences in order to make accurate risk management decisions.

本文通过考虑先前的个人经验对形成风险偏好的影响，扩展了现有的适应气候变化的个人决策框架。在新疆省农村开展基于前景理论的“实验室-田间”风险实验，采用更灵活的Prelec双参数概率函数，推导出中国农民的风险曲率和概率偏差。使用贝叶斯方法进行估计，我们发现农民的先验经验不仅提供了影响未来结果主观分布的信息，而且通过塑造农民的个人风险偏好，影响农民如何吸收和更新这些信息。因此，我们的研究表明，个体的风险偏好是可以进化的，个人经历对偏好的影响表现出不同的模式，这取决于农民面临的是利益还是损失。经历生产损失往往使农民更厌恶损失，并增加他们对个人损失风险的乐观偏见。这些发现的一个政策含义是，为了做出准确的风险管理决策，减少农民对自身气候相关损失的认知偏见和对个人经验的过度依赖至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Next stop innovation: Subway stations opening and spatial agglomeration of high-tech enterprises 下一站创新：地铁站开放与高新技术企业空间集聚

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102585

Meng Shen , Hongfu Li , Liyuan Ma , Jie Wu

The establishment and improvement of public transport systems, particularly subways, are reshaping the spatial distribution of high-tech enterprises in cities. We employed a time-varying difference-in-differences method to investigate the agglomeration of high-tech enterprises in the vicinity of 363 Beijing subway stations opened between 2000 and 2022. Our findings reveal that the opening of the subway stations resulted in a significant increase in the number of high-tech enterprises in the surrounding areas. The construction of subway lines effectively increased accessibility to the outer city and significantly enhanced innovative activities in the peripheral areas, while having no significant impact on the inner city. Subway stations connected to the original innovation center had a more pronounced effect on innovation compared to other stations.

公共交通系统，特别是地铁的建立和完善，正在重塑城市高新技术企业的空间分布。采用时变差分法对2000 - 2022年开通的363个北京地铁站点周边的高新技术企业集聚进行了研究。我们的研究结果表明，地铁站点的开通导致了周边地区高科技企业数量的显著增加。地铁线路的建设有效增加了外城的可达性，显著增强了周边地区的创新活动，而对内城没有显著影响。与原创新中心相连的地铁站对创新的影响比其他地铁站更为明显。

引用次数: 0

Political career incentives and multitasking trade-off: Evidence from setting performance targets in Chinese cities 政治职业激励与多任务权衡：来自中国城市绩效目标设定的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102537

Zhouling Bai , Pan Zhang , Hongtao Yi

Though the goal-setting theory has attracted much attention, current research neglects how the principal-agent structure shapes agents' target-setting. This study estimates how principal-agent incentive arrangements affect target-setting from the micro-level perspective of local officials. Using a novel fuzzy regression discontinuity design, it shows that China's political selection system creates a significant downward discontinuity in city-level agents' political career advancement prospects at the 55-year-old age threshold, and city agents with weaker age-based career incentives set lower GDP growth targets than those with stronger ones. Moreover, this effect decreases when these agents are under increased pressure to curb environmental pollution. The subperiod analysis suggests that the strategic target-setting behavior of local agents evolves dynamically in response to changes in performance evaluation criteria. It contributes to the target-setting theory in principal-agent contexts, featuring a rigorous political promotion ladder and trade-offs associated with multiple tasks.

虽然目标设定理论备受关注，但目前的研究忽略了委托-代理结构如何影响主体的目标设定。本研究从地方官员微观层面的角度，对委托代理激励安排对目标设定的影响进行了估计。采用一种新颖的模糊回归不连续设计，表明中国的政治选择制度在55岁阈值下对城市一级代理人的政治职业发展前景产生了显著的向下不连续，年龄职业激励较弱的城市代理人设定的GDP增长目标低于年龄职业激励较强的城市代理人。此外，当这些药物面临更大的抑制环境污染的压力时，这种效果会减弱。子周期分析表明，局部代理的战略目标设定行为随着绩效评价标准的变化而动态演化。它为委托-代理情境下的目标设定理论做出了贡献，该理论具有严格的政治晋升阶梯和与多个任务相关的权衡。

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引用次数: 0

Centuries of memory: Historical disasters and modern household savings 几个世纪的记忆：历史灾难和现代家庭储蓄

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102511

Dongmin Yao, Aohan Xu, Shiyu Zhang, Shuguang Yu

This study examines the impact of historical disasters on contemporary household saving rates in China. Using a unique dataset that combines detailed disaster records from the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1911) and China Family Panel Studies, this study reveals that historical disasters significantly increase contemporary household saving rates. Robustness tests confirm this result. Mechanism analysis suggests that risk preference is a key channel: historical disasters increase risk aversion, thereby strengthening the motivation for precautionary saving. A theoretical model of cultural transmission is developed, and heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect is stronger in regions with more diverse cultural transmission channels, as reflected in more deeply rooted Confucian and clan cultures. By incorporating historical and cultural perspectives, this study offers a novel explanation for the persistently high household saving rates observed in China.

本研究探讨历史灾害对当代中国家庭储蓄率的影响。本研究使用了一个独特的数据集，结合了明清（1368-1911）和中国家庭面板研究的详细灾害记录，揭示了历史灾害显著提高了当代家庭储蓄率。稳健性测试证实了这一结果。机制分析表明，风险偏好是一个关键渠道：历史灾害增加了风险厌恶，从而增强了预防性储蓄的动机。建立了文化传播的理论模型，异质性分析表明，在文化传播渠道更多样化的地区，这种效应更强，体现在儒家文化和宗族文化更根深蒂固。通过结合历史和文化的视角，本研究为中国观察到的持续高的家庭储蓄率提供了一个新的解释。

引用次数: 0

The impact of intelligent automation on subjective well-being and job satisfaction: A comparison between standard and nonstandard employment 智能自动化对主观幸福感和工作满意度的影响：标准和非标准就业的比较

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102524

Hongye Sun, Gongjing Gao

The accelerating global adoption of intelligent automation (IA) technologies is fundamentally transforming economic structures and reshaping individual lifestyles. Despite intense debate regarding the societal impacts of IA, including both beneficial and adverse effects, empirical evidence on its net influence on multidimensional well-being outcomes remains scarce. Drawing on a nationally representative dataset from China (2018–2020), we employed multilevel probit models with instrumental variables to investigate how IA influences subjective well-being (SWB) and job satisfaction (JS), differentiating between standard and nonstandard employment contexts. Our findings revealed distinct nonlinear relationships: an inverted U-shaped pattern between IA and SWB, versus a U-shaped relationship between IA and JS, with turning points above the 35th and 80th percentiles of IA intensity distribution, respectively. These contrasting trajectories suggest that IA’s impacts vary considerably between consumption utility and production utility domains. The results demonstrate significant heterogeneity in the well-being effects of IA across different forms of employment. Specifically, within standard employment arrangements, IA exerts strong marginal diminishing effects on JS, though with an earlier turning point as IA intensity increases. Moreover, our counterfactual decomposition analysis verifies that IA contributes to narrowing the overall SWB and JS gaps between standard and nonstandard forms of employment by approximately 13% and 19%, respectively. Our mediation analysis identified three distinct transmission mechanisms — psychological factors, social interactions, and structural inequality — through which IA influences well-being, with mental exhaustion and actual inequality accounting for 38% and 30% of the total negative effect of IA on JS, respectively. These findings suggest that policy interventions would ensure balanced technological integration to maximize technology’s welfare benefits while mitigating its polarizing tendencies. This study provides important implications for understanding how technological transformation shapes human well-being across increasingly segmented global labor markets.

智能自动化（IA）技术的全球加速采用正在从根本上改变经济结构和重塑个人生活方式。尽管关于内部投资的社会影响（包括有益和不利影响）存在激烈争论，但关于其对多维福祉结果的净影响的经验证据仍然很少。利用中国（2018-2020）具有全国代表性的数据集，我们采用带有工具变量的多层次probit模型来研究IA如何影响主观幸福感（SWB）和工作满意度（JS），并区分标准和非标准就业环境。我们的研究结果揭示了明显的非线性关系：IA和SWB之间呈倒u型关系，而IA和JS之间呈u型关系，拐点分别高于IA强度分布的第35和第80百分位。这些对比轨迹表明，内部投资的影响在消费效用和生产效用领域之间差异很大。研究结果表明，在不同形式的就业中，内部投资对幸福感的影响存在显著的异质性。具体来说，在标准的就业安排中，IA对JS有很强的边际递减效应，尽管随着IA强度的增加，转折点会提前。此外，我们的反事实分解分析证实，IA有助于将标准和非标准就业形式之间的整体SWB和JS差距分别缩小约13%和19%。我们的中介分析确定了三种不同的传递机制——心理因素、社会互动和结构性不平等——IA通过这些机制影响幸福感，其中精神耗竭和实际不平等分别占IA对JS的总负面影响的38%和30%。这些研究结果表明，政策干预可以确保平衡的技术整合，以最大限度地提高技术的福利效益，同时减轻技术的两极分化趋势。这项研究为理解技术转型如何在日益分化的全球劳动力市场中塑造人类福祉提供了重要启示。

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引用次数: 0

The costs of duty exemptions in processing trade 加工贸易免税的成本

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102523

Jianpeng Deng , Zi Wang

We propose a theory in which developing countries may lose from using duty exemptions to encourage processing trade. Our model features that (i) processing exports have a much lower domestic value-added share (DVAS) than ordinary exports and domestic sales, and (ii) domestic production exhibits external economies of scale. Consequently, the welfare effects of duty exemptions can be decomposed into two main components: (i) the direct effect captures welfare gains through reduced input costs and access to a greater variety of imported inputs. In contrast, (ii) the market size effect reflects welfare losses due to the contraction of domestic production, driven by the reallocation of labor away from high-DVAS production to low-DVAS processing production. We then calibrate our model to the Chinese firm-level data and aggregate trade flows across 47 economies. Our counterfactual analysis shows that the welfare losses associated with the market size effect outweigh the welfare gains from the direct effect, resulting in a reduction in China’s real income.

我们提出一种理论，其中发展中国家可能会因利用关税豁免来鼓励加工贸易而蒙受损失。我们的模型显示：(i)加工出口的国内增值份额（DVAS）远低于普通出口和内销，以及（ii）国内生产表现出外部规模经济。因此，免税的福利效应可以分解为两个主要组成部分：(i)直接效应通过降低投入成本和获得更多种类的进口投入来获得福利收益。相比之下，（ii）市场规模效应反映了劳动力从高dvas生产向低dvas加工生产的再配置所导致的国内生产收缩所造成的福利损失。然后，我们将我们的模型校准为中国企业层面的数据和47个经济体的总贸易流量。我们的反事实分析表明，与市场规模效应相关的福利损失超过了直接效应带来的福利收益，导致中国实际收入的减少。

引用次数: 0

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