中国经济评论最新文献

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The paradox of decelerated technology importation and accelerated innovation in China: Insights from national technology development zones 中国技术引进减速与创新加速的悖论：国家技术开发区的启示

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102303

Wenyin Cheng , Bo Meng , Yuning Gao , David Dollar

Although technology importation has traditionally been viewed as the main pathway for innovation catch-up in developing countries, a paradox has emerged in China following the 2008 financial crisis: innovation boom amidst a slowdown in technology importation. To unravel this paradox, using firm-level data, we delve into the promotional and distortive effect of National Technology Development Zones (NTZs) on innovation. We documented a promotional effect of NTZs on local firm innovation measured by both patent quantity and quality from 1995 to 2013, and observed a post-crisis distortive effect on patent quality. Drawing from technological learning theories, we further explored the underlying mechanisms—autonomous development and technology importation—which both contributed to the promotional effect. Concerning the distortive effect, both mechanisms are contributing factors, with technology importation having a more pronounced negative effect. Furthermore, creative capacity of autonomous development and tangible technology importation are more significantly associated with this negative impact compared to their counterparts (absorptive capacity and intangible technology importation). Our study sheds new light on the innovation progress of China against the backdrop of escalating technology protectionism.

尽管技术引进历来被视为发展中国家创新赶超的主要途径，但 2008 年金融危机之后，中国出现了一个悖论：在技术引进放缓的同时，创新却蓬勃发展。为了解开这一悖论，我们利用企业层面的数据，深入研究了国家技术开发区（NTZs）对创新的促进和扭曲效应。从1995年到2013年，我们记录了国家技术开发区对以专利数量和质量衡量的本地企业创新的促进效应，并观察到危机后对专利质量的扭曲效应。借鉴技术学习理论，我们进一步探讨了自主开发和技术引进这两种促进效应的内在机制。关于扭曲效应，两种机制都是促成因素，其中技术引进的负面效应更为明显。此外，与同类机制（吸收能力和无形技术引进）相比，自主发展的创造能力和有形技术引进与这种负面影响的关系更为显著。在技术保护主义不断升级的背景下，我们的研究为中国的创新进步提供了新的视角。

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引用次数: 0

The effects of monthly minimum wages on the labor market 月最低工资对劳动力市场的影响

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102310

Zhengxiong Yang , Mingwei Liu , Shiwei Zhang , Chenxi Yin

We explore the labor market impact of monthly minimum wages utilizing a model suitable for countries adopting monthly, weekly, or daily wage benchmarks. Our findings indicate that, in the absence of overtime regulations, an increase in monthly minimum wages will increase working hours and hourly wages and increase (or decrease) employment when the firm has high (or low) monopsony power. When incorporating overtime alongside its associated compensation, the implications of monthly minimum wages become contingent on the prevailing overtime premiums. We validate these assertions using microdata from China.

我们利用一个适用于采用月、周或日工资基准的国家的模型，探讨了月最低工资对劳动力市场的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在没有加班规定的情况下，当企业具有较高或较低的垄断力量时，月最低工资的提高将增加工作时间和小时工资，并增加（或减少）就业。如果将加班费与相关报酬一并考虑，月最低工资的影响将取决于现行的加班费。我们利用中国的微观数据验证了这些论断。

引用次数: 0

The effect of clean heating policy on individual health: Evidence from China 清洁取暖政策对个人健康的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102309

Liping Liao , Shuning Kong , Minzhe Du

The clean heating policy implemented in the northern region aims to promote the use of clean energy in winter heating and improve the air quality. Based on the micro data from China Family Panel Studies in China, this study estimates the role of clean heating policy in decreasing the probabilities of having physical diseases for residents. Findings show that clean heating policy significantly induces an improvement in the physical health of people, and it leads to a 1.3 % decrease in the probability of having a respiratory disease. Besides, the beneficial effect of clean heating policy is much larger for the elderly and the low-income people. Clean heating policy improves regional air quality, raises residents' environmental awareness, and drives them to take avoidance behavior, which has a beneficial effect on their health. The cost-benefit analysis indicates that short-term health benefits from the decreased defensive expenditures and the reduced medical expenditures are larger than the total costs of the policy. These findings imply that clean heating policy is an effective strategy to improve environmental quality and social welfare, and perhaps the differentiated policy that favors the elderly and the poor groups can be more efficient.

北方地区实施清洁取暖政策的目的是在冬季取暖中推广使用清洁能源，改善空气质量。本研究基于中国家庭面板研究的微观数据，估算了清洁取暖政策在降低居民身体疾病发生概率方面的作用。研究结果表明，清洁取暖政策显著改善了居民的身体健康状况，使患呼吸道疾病的概率降低了 1.3%。此外，清洁供暖政策对老年人和低收入人群的有益影响更大。清洁取暖政策改善了区域空气质量，提高了居民的环保意识，促使他们采取避免污染的行为，从而对他们的健康产生有利影响。成本效益分析表明，降低防御性支出和减少医疗支出所带来的短期健康效益大于政策的总成本。这些研究结果表明，清洁取暖政策是改善环境质量和社会福利的有效策略，而向老年人和贫困群体倾斜的差别化政策或许会更有效。

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引用次数: 0

Does online education magnify educational inequalities? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic 在线教育会扩大教育不平等吗？来自 COVID-19 大流行病的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102304

Yue Sun , Can Tang , Zhong Zhao

Taking the closure of all primary and secondary schools in China at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the impact of online education on student academic performance and the role of family socioeconomic status (SES) in the K-12 online environment. We employ a difference-in-differences approach and find that online learning has a positive effect on the performance of previous high-achieving students and a negative effect on low-achieving students. Further, employing the difference-in-difference-in-differences method, we find that students from high-SES families improve their GPA by 0.464 points after distance learning relative to disadvantaged students, i.e., the gap between low and high SES performance widens by 16.7 %, and this effect is more pronounced among students in primary schools and in provinces where online education lasts longer. The mechanism analysis shows that high-SES families help their children make academic progress in online education by developing their children's academic locus of control, providing access to information and communication technology, and increasing study time.

本文以 COVID-19 大流行开始时中国所有中小学停课为准自然实验，研究了在线教育对学生学业成绩的影响，以及家庭社会经济地位（SES）在 K-12 在线环境中的作用。我们采用差分法研究发现，在线学习对以往成绩优秀的学生的学习成绩有积极影响，而对成绩较差的学生则有消极影响。此外，运用差分法，我们发现高社会经济地位家庭的学生在远程学习后，其 GPA 相对于弱势学生提高了 0.464 分，即低社会经济地位学生和高社会经济地位学生的成绩差距扩大了 16.7%，而且这种效应在小学和在线教育持续时间较长的省份的学生中更为明显。机制分析表明，高社会经济地位家庭通过培养子女的学业控制力、提供信息和通信技术以及增加学习时间，帮助子女在在线教育中取得学业进步。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of robots on unemployment duration: Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey 机器人对失业持续时间的影响：来自中国综合社会调查的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102305

Linhui Wang , Huilin Zhou , Guanghua Wan

The issue of the impact of robot applications on unemployment duration remains relatively unexplored. Using individual-level data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), we shed new light on the effects of robots on unemployment likelihood and duration. Major findings include that: (1) robots prolong the duration of unemployment, particularly for workers in routine occupations compared with those in non-routine occupations. This phenomenon can be understood as a form of structural unemployment; (2) workers with low skills, low economic and occupational status, and parenting responsibilities suffer more from the robot shock. In particular, robots adversely affect women's careers, and traditional perceptions amplify this effect to dampen their willingness and efforts to search for job, resulting in longer periods of unemployment. These heterogeneous impacts of robots on unemployment duration highlight the need for greater support and policy interventions for vulnerable groups; (3) access to information from digital channels plays a pivotal role in alleviating the adverse impact of robots on vulnerable groups. Reducing information asymmetry and nurturing job search capabilities help the vulnerable better adapt to evolving labor market conditions, thereby mitigating the negative consequences of robots.

机器人应用对失业持续时间的影响问题仍然相对未被探索。利用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）的个人层面数据，我们揭示了机器人对失业可能性和持续时间的影响。主要发现包括：(1)与非常规职业相比，机器人延长了失业时间，特别是对于常规职业的工人。这种现象可以理解为结构性失业的一种形式；(2)低技能、低经济、低职业地位、低育儿责任的劳动者更易受到机器人冲击。特别是，机器人对女性的职业生涯产生了不利影响，传统观念放大了这种影响，抑制了她们找工作的意愿和努力，导致更长时间的失业。机器人对失业持续时间的这些异质性影响突出了对弱势群体提供更多支持和政策干预的必要性；(3)从数字渠道获取信息在缓解机器人对弱势群体的不利影响方面起着关键作用。减少信息不对称和培养求职能力有助于弱势群体更好地适应不断变化的劳动力市场条件，从而减轻机器人的负面影响。

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引用次数: 0

Quenching thirst, easing debt: Improvement in water resource endowment alleviates local government debt risk 解渴，减轻债务：水资源禀赋改善缓解地方政府债务风险

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102302

Wei Dai, Zhongxin Ni, Enping Yu

Water resources serve as a vital pillar sustaining both economic activities and daily life for residents. However, the uneven distribution of water resources across time and space has made water scarcity a bottleneck factor restricting the economic and social development of some regions. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion project provides an excellent quasi-natural experiment for in-depth research on the effects and influence mechanism of cross-regional productive factor allocation on economic development. This study focuses on whether the water resource endowment improvement is reflected on the capital market. Based on the trading data of urban construction investment bonds from 2011 to 2016, we empirically examine how the South-to-North Water Diversion project affects the local government financing costs. The results indicate that the water diversion project significantly reduces the credit spread of urban construction investment bonds from the water-receiving areas. Further analysis reveals that the water diversion project improves the economic fundamentals and increases the land sales revenue of the water receiving cities, enhancing local governments' implicit guarantee ability for the financing platforms, thereby reducing the credit risks of urban construction investment bonds. This study not only enriches the research on the determinants of credit risk for urban construction investment bonds, but also provides empirical evidence from the capital market that the coordinated allocation of productive factors promotes regional balanced development. The conclusions imply that the government should actively advance the corresponding infrastructure construction and institutional arrangements to promote the flow and complementarity of economic elements between regions.

水资源是维持经济活动和居民日常生活的重要支柱。然而，水资源的时空分布不均，使得水资源短缺成为制约一些地区经济社会发展的瓶颈因素。南水北调工程的实施，为深入研究跨区域生产要素配置对经济发展的影响效果和影响机制提供了一个很好的准自然实验。本研究主要关注水资源禀赋的改善是否在资本市场上有所体现。基于 2011 年至 2016 年城市建设投资债券的交易数据，实证检验了南水北调工程对地方政府融资成本的影响。结果表明，引水工程显著降低了受水区城市建设投资债券的信用利差。进一步分析发现，引水工程改善了受水城市的经济基本面，增加了受水城市的土地出让收入，增强了地方政府对融资平台的隐性担保能力，从而降低了城市建设投资债券的信用风险。本研究不仅丰富了城市建设投资债券信用风险决定因素的研究，而且从资本市场上提供了生产要素协调配置促进区域均衡发展的经验证据。结论意味着政府应积极推进相应的基础设施建设和制度安排，促进区域间经济要素的流动和互补。

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引用次数: 0

Infrastructure and the patterns of trade: An empirical look at China 基础设施与贸易模式：中国的经验观察

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102296

Shuaihang Li , Qihong Liu , Qing Liu

Transport infrastructure plays an important role in economic growth, particularly for developing countries. Recently a burgeoning literature explores how transport infrastructure facilitates economic growth via the channel of trade. In this paper, we study this question in the context of China, but with several distinctions. First, we distinguish firms from different regions in China, and see how their trade behavior responds differently to changes in infrastructure. Second, we consider both export and domestic sales, with an eye toward the interplay between the two channels. Our estimation results reveal the presence of both regional heterogeneity and sales channel competition. For in-land provinces, an improvement in their transport infrastructure raises firms’ exports at the cost of domestic sales. Interestingly, the results are reversed for coastal provinces, mainly driven by non-coastal cities of coastal provinces (rather than coastal cities). We also find negative spatial spillover, in the sense that neighboring provinces tend to compete with rather than complement each other. Our analysis has important policy implications under the current geopolitical tension and policy initiatives (e.g. dual circulation in China).

交通基础设施在经济增长中发挥着重要作用，尤其是对发展中国家而言。最近，有大量文献探讨了交通基础设施如何通过贸易渠道促进经济增长。在本文中，我们以中国为背景研究这一问题，但有几个区别。首先，我们将中国不同地区的企业区分开来，研究它们的贸易行为对基础设施变化的不同反应。其次，我们同时考虑了出口和内销，着眼于两个渠道之间的相互作用。我们的估计结果显示了地区异质性和销售渠道竞争的存在。对于内陆省份来说，交通基础设施的改善提高了企业的出口，但内销却付出了代价。有趣的是，沿海省份的结果正好相反，主要是由沿海省份的非沿海城市（而非沿海城市）推动的。我们还发现了负的空间溢出效应，即相邻省份往往相互竞争而非互补。在当前地缘政治紧张局势和政策举措（如中国的双循环）下，我们的分析具有重要的政策含义。

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引用次数: 0

Cognitive ability in matching with strategic uncertainty: An experimental study 战略不确定性匹配中的认知能力：实验研究

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102295

Xinquan Hu , Lan Yao

Strategyproof mechanisms have become the predominant choice for educational institutions. However, both laboratory experiments and empirical evidence highlight the persistent occurrence of strategic misreporting, leading to adverse consequences. This underscores the need to examine the reporting strategies of students, particularly those with varying cognitive abilities, across different decision environments. We present an experimental comprehension test of reporting strategies using computerized opponents to precisely control the levels of strategic uncertainty. The results reveal that removing strategic uncertainty does not significantly affect truth-telling rates. However, subjects with median cognitive ability are more truthful under strategic uncertainty, especially when information is incomplete. Additionally, providing information about priorities has a negative and significant impact on truth-telling rates. The findings of this research demonstrate that constructing a simplified market environment using computerized agents and providing relevant feedback to students can effectively enhance their understanding of the matching mechanism and nudge them to make optimal strategy choices.

战略防御机制已成为教育机构的主要选择。然而，实验室实验和经验证据都凸显了策略性误报的持续发生，从而导致不良后果。这凸显了研究学生，尤其是认知能力不同的学生在不同决策环境下的报告策略的必要性。我们利用计算机对手精确控制战略不确定性水平，对报告策略进行了实验性理解测试。结果显示，消除策略不确定性并不会显著影响说真话的比率。然而，认知能力处于中位数的受试者在策略不确定性条件下会更真实，尤其是在信息不完整的情况下。此外，提供关于优先级的信息对说真话率也有显著的负面影响。研究结果表明，利用计算机代理构建一个简化的市场环境，并向学生提供相关反馈，可以有效增强他们对匹配机制的理解，促使他们做出最优策略选择。

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引用次数: 0

Follow the gaze: How social attention shapes gendered trading choices 追随目光：社会关注如何影响性别交易选择

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102301

Xiaolan Yang , Xiaotong Fang , Mei Gao , Lucy F. Ackert , Li Qi

We explore how visual attention differentially impacts the trading behavior of men and women. In the laboratory, eye-tracking technology measures information gaze during a sequential trading game in which participants are asked to buy or sell an asset. Before making a decision, traders receive information on the trading decisions of other participants (others' decisions) and the redemption value of the asset (private information). Research documents that women, compared to men, pay more attention to social cues. In this study, women are more attention-driven when making financial decisions, as compared to men. We conclude that attentional priority is a cognitive mechanism that can account for the increased tendency of women, compared to men, to follow the social cues of others with disparate information and tournament incentives.

我们探讨了视觉注意力如何对男性和女性的交易行为产生不同影响。在实验室中，眼动跟踪技术测量了参与者在连续交易游戏中的信息注视情况。在做出决定之前，交易者会收到其他参与者的交易决定（其他人的决定）和资产的赎回价值（私人信息）。研究表明，与男性相比，女性更关注社会线索。在本研究中，与男性相比，女性在做出金融决策时更受注意力驱动。我们的结论是，注意力优先是一种认知机制，它可以解释为什么与男性相比，女性更倾向于在信息和竞争激励不同的情况下听从他人的社交暗示。

引用次数: 0

Did the anti-avoidance rules curtail the profit shifting of foreign multinationals in China? 反避税规则是否遏制了外国跨国公司在中国的利润转移？

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102299

Mantian Xue

This paper analyzes the policy effect of the anti-avoidance rules introduced on January 1, 2008 on profit shifting of foreign multinationals in China. Based on micro data from the OSIRIS database, this paper finds that the anti-avoidance rules were quite effective in curbing profit shifting of foreign multinationals through raising the pre-tax margin of subsidiaries in China relative to those outside China by about 6.5 percentage points, or about 7.6 percentage points considering the anticipation effect. Besides, the results indicate that the anti-avoidance rules were more effective for multinationals in service industries or those registered in non-haven countries.

本文分析了 2008 年 1 月 1 日开始实施的反避税规则对在华外资跨国公司利润转移的政策影响。基于 OSIRIS 数据库的微观数据，本文发现反避税规则通过将在华子公司相对于境外子公司的税前利润率提高约 6.5 个百分点，或考虑预期效应提高约 7.6 个百分点，在抑制外国跨国公司利润转移方面相当有效。此外，研究结果表明，反避税规则对服务业跨国公司或在非避税港国家注册的跨国公司更为有效。

引用次数: 0

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