中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

Global value chain position, industrial policy, and bank loan allocation: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms 全球价值链地位、产业政策与银行贷款配置：来自中国制造业企业的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102575

ShiYi Liu, HaiYue Liu, WeiKe Li

The rapid expansion of global value chains (GVCs) has deepened interconnections among countries and regions and reshaped industrial strategies and domestic capital allocations. Using a dataset of 2600 listed manufacturing firms in China from 2005 to 2020, this study finds that firms in industries that have lower GVC positions (LGPI firms), such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced materials, obtain a greater number of bank loans, particularly medium- and long-term loans and policy bank loans. The relationship is more pronounced for firms in regional strategic pillar and technology-intensive industries, state-owned firms, and those with lower operational risks and stronger debt repayment capacity. The main mechanisms include a compensatory effect (compensation for emerging strategic firms), a strategic response effect (response to the China-U.S. trade friction), and a technological support effect (support for firm R&D and digital transformation). The economic consequence tests indicate that the higher number of bank loans allocated to LGPI firms improves their total factor productivity and innovation patent output. Collectively, our findings reveal the evolving GVC competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector and the significant role financial institutions play in strengthening these less dominant but strategically important industries.

全球价值链的快速扩张，深化了国家和地区之间的联系，重塑了产业战略和国内资本配置。利用2005 - 2020年中国2600家制造业上市公司的数据，研究发现，新能源、航空航天、先进材料等全球价值链地位较低的行业（LGPI）的企业获得的银行贷款更多，尤其是中长期贷款和政策性银行贷款。这种关系在区域战略支柱和技术密集型产业、国有企业、经营风险较低、偿债能力较强的企业中更为明显。其主要机制包括补偿效应（对新兴战略企业的补偿）、战略响应效应（对中美战略企业的响应）和战略响应效应。贸易摩擦)和技术支持效应（对企业研发和数字化转型的支持）。经济后果检验表明，银行贷款越多，低成本企业的全要素生产率和创新专利产出越高。总体而言，我们的研究结果揭示了中国制造业全球价值链竞争力的演变，以及金融机构在加强这些不太占主导地位但具有重要战略意义的行业方面发挥的重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

A measure of industrial clustering: Considering relatedness and scale 产业集群的测度：考虑关联性和规模

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102578

Jianqing Ruan , Xiaobo Zhang

An industrial cluster is a geographic area with a concentration of large numbers of firms in related industries. However, many clustering measures, such as regional specialization and industrial concentration measures, often overlook the two core features of clusters: industrial relatedness and scale. A few recently developed measures which address both factors are limited to specific industries and do not provide a regional-level perspective. In this paper, we introduce a novel clustering index that incorporates both relatedness and scale. Taking China as an example, we demonstrate that our index significantly outperforms existing measures in predicting major industrial clusters, both in the short and long term. Additionally, we show a positive correlation between the initial level of our clustering index and subsequent local economic performance, as measured by nighttime light intensity, patent grants, and the number of new businesses.

产业集群是指大量相关产业企业集中的地理区域。然而，许多集群测度，如区域专业化和产业集中度测度，往往忽视了集群的两个核心特征：产业关联度和规模。最近制定的一些处理这两个因素的措施仅限于具体行业，没有提供区域一级的观点。本文提出了一种结合相关性和尺度的聚类指标。以中国为例，我们证明我们的指数在预测主要产业集群的短期和长期方面都明显优于现有的方法。此外，我们还展示了集群指数的初始水平与随后的当地经济表现之间的正相关关系，这是通过夜间灯光强度、专利授予和新企业数量来衡量的。

引用次数: 0

The border effect of industrial development in China 中国工业发展的边界效应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102571

Siru Chen , Guangjun Shen , Li Zhang

Administrative divisions significantly influence China's economic integration and industrial layout. This study documents a stylized fact of land allocation in China: the less-developed cities are inclined to lease industrial land near their border with more-developed cities. We call it the “border effect.” Using detailed information on over a million transactions of land plots, we construct a city-level panel dataset spanning from 2007 to 2019 to explore the border effect. The empirical analysis shows that a city leases 1.49 percentage points more industrial land near its border with a more-developed city on average, as compared with its border with a less-developed city. The border effect is robust to alternative measures and various specifications, and more profound for cities left behind their adjacent cities by a wide margin. Mechanism analysis reveals that the land constraint of more-developed cities and their strategic land-use expansion to less-developed neighbors are the main causes of the border effect.

行政区划对中国经济一体化和产业布局具有显著影响。本研究记录了中国土地分配的一个风格化事实：欠发达城市倾向于租赁与较发达城市接壤的工业用地。我们称之为“边界效应”。利用超过一百万宗土地交易的详细信息，我们构建了2007年至2019年的城市级面板数据集，以探索边界效应。实证分析表明，与欠发达城市相比，一个城市在其与较发达城市边界附近的工业用地租赁平均高出1.49个百分点。边界效应对替代措施和各种规格都很强大，对远远落后于邻近城市的城市来说更为深刻。机制分析表明，较发达城市的土地约束和向欠发达城市的战略性用地扩张是边界效应产生的主要原因。

引用次数: 0

Background ambiguity and intertemporal choice: An experimental study on the effect of summer vacation 背景歧义与跨期选择：暑假影响的实验研究

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102574

Miao Jin , Jian Li , Juanjuan Meng , Jingwei Sun

This paper examines the role of background ambiguity in intertemporal choice. Using natural variation in background ambiguity from the uncertainty surrounding summer vacation and a within-subject difference-in-differences experimental design, we find that individuals tend to avoid allocating money to the summer period, leading to nonmonotonic changes in discount rates. To investigate the underlying mechanism, we exogenously increase summer planning efforts and find that this reduces perceived background ambiguity about summer and increases individuals' willingness to allocate money to that period. These findings suggest that background ambiguity plays an important role in shaping intertemporal preferences.

本文探讨了背景歧义在跨期选择中的作用。利用暑假周围不确定性背景模糊的自然变化和被试差异中差异实验设计，我们发现个体倾向于避免将资金分配到夏季，导致贴现率的非单调变化。为了研究潜在的机制，我们外生地增加了夏季计划的努力，并发现这减少了对夏季的感知背景歧义，并增加了个人将资金分配到该时期的意愿。这些发现表明，背景模糊性在形成跨期偏好中起着重要作用。

引用次数: 0

Adverse sentiments in the American media houses towards the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI): An analysis of the taxonomy, trend, texture, and tendency 美国媒体对“一带一路”倡议的负面情绪：分类、趋势、结构和趋势分析

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102573

Tariq H. Malik , Jack W. Hou

While the Chinese narrative promotes inclusive development, shared economies and sustainable futures, the American narrative highlights its negative impact on the world. This study explores whether the narratives of the leading news media in the USA emit negative sentiments towards the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) project over the last 10 years, from the BRI's birth in 2013 to adolescence in 2023. During this period, some 3569 articles were written in the two prominent publications in the USA—The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Dow Jones Newswires (DJN) concerning the BRI. This study analyzed them using media theories to discern the prevailing attitudes and perceptions expressed in these articles in terms of heuristics (taxonomy, temporality, texture, and tendency). We made four discoveries related to the sentiments contextualised in the media narratives about the BRI project. First, the WSJ embeds negative sentiments in its narrative more than the DJN does. Second, the temporal line reveals that negative sentiment increased as the BRI project grew towards youth. Third, the concrete (vs abstract) texture of the narrative is more negative and WSJ is more concrete than DJN is. Fourth, the political discourse in the context (people, groups, country) reveals negative tendencies, but business discourse in the institutional/corporate contexts reveals positive tendencies. These findings offer valuable insights into the evolving perceptions and attitudes surrounding the BRI project in influential global media outlets in America, providing a nuanced understanding of how media framing (taxonomy), temporality, texture, and tendency are driving the discourse and geopolitical influence on the public mind.

中国的叙事提倡包容性发展、共享经济和可持续未来，而美国的叙事则强调其对世界的负面影响。本研究探讨了从2013年“一带一路”倡议诞生到2023年“一带一路”倡议进入青春期的过去10年里，美国主要新闻媒体的叙事是否对“一带一路”项目发出了负面情绪。在此期间，美国两大主要媒体《华尔街日报》和道琼斯通讯社就“一带一路”倡议发表了3569篇文章。本研究运用媒体理论对这些文章进行分析，以启发式方法（分类、时间性、质地和倾向）来辨别这些文章中表达的主流态度和看法。我们发现了四个与媒体对“一带一路”项目的描述相关的观点。首先，《华尔街日报》比《日本日报》更多地在其报道中嵌入负面情绪。其次，时间线显示，随着“一带一路”项目向年轻人发展，负面情绪有所增加。第三，具体（相对于抽象）的叙事结构更消极，WSJ比DJN更具体。第四，政治话语在语境（人、群体、国家）中表现出消极倾向，而商业话语在制度/公司语境中表现出积极倾向。这些发现为了解美国有影响力的全球媒体对“一带一路”项目的看法和态度的演变提供了有价值的见解，并提供了对媒体框架（分类）、时间性、质地和趋势如何推动话语和地缘政治对公众思想的影响的细致理解。

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引用次数: 0

Founder control and breakthrough innovation: Evidence from high-tech firms in China 创始人控制与突破性创新：来自中国高科技企业的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102572

Zi-Qi Zhang , Bao-Jun Tang , Zhi Su , Yongji Zhang

We examine the effect of founder control on breakthrough innovation among Chinese high-tech firms from 2008 to 2022. We measure founder control by the equity held by founders actively involved in governance and identify breakthrough innovation with Sentence-BERT (SBERT) embeddings of patent texts. We find a strong positive association between founder control and future breakthrough innovation. Using unexpected founder departures as an instrument, our identification strategy establishes a robust causal relationship. The underlying mechanisms include talent investment, internal discipline, strategic reorientation, and technological resilience. The effect is heterogeneous across founding team's size, internal structure, attributes, and tenure. Our results support a structural view of founder governance where concentrated control serves as an engine for corporate innovation.

本文研究了2008 - 2022年中国高新技术企业创始人控制权对突破性创新的影响。我们通过积极参与治理的创始人所持有的股权来衡量创始人的控制权，并通过专利文本的句子bert （SBERT）嵌入来识别突破性创新。我们发现，创始人控制权与未来突破性创新之间存在强烈的正相关关系。使用意想不到的创始人离开作为工具，我们的识别策略建立了一个强大的因果关系。其基本机制包括人才投入、内部纪律、战略重新定位和技术弹性。这种影响因创始团队的规模、内部结构、属性和任期而异。我们的研究结果支持创始人治理的结构性观点，其中集中控制是公司创新的引擎。

引用次数: 0

Econometric evaluation of the China–US trade war effects 中美贸易战影响的计量经济学评价

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102567

Zongwu Cai, Jinyan Li

The escalating trade war between China and the US, initiated in 2018, has significantly impacted the trade pattern of these two nations. This event can be treated as an intervention which has led to a series of retaliatory actions, resulting in substantial economic and trade frictions between the two largest economies. This paper aims to analyze the economic impacts of the trade war effects using advanced econometric techniques. Our empirical study employs panel data analysis combined with a factor model, inspired by the methodologies of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) and Bai, Li and Ouyang (2014), to construct trade patterns for both China and the US. By using annual trade data from multiple countries as a control group, we construct counterfactual results for China’s and the US’s imports, exports, and trade balance, respectively. Under a nonstationary setting, the counterfactual results indicate a significant decline in China’s exports and a notable reduction in its trade surplus with the US post-2018. Meanwhile, US imports from China decreased, aligning with the trade war’s goal of reducing the trade deficit, while US exports to China unexpectedly increased, possibly influenced by the Phase One trade agreement. We also perform a dynamic permutation test on treatment effects over time, which ensures the rigor and significance of our analysis, reinforcing the reliability of the estimated effects. Finally, we conduct an empirical comparative analysis with alternative methods to demonstrate that our chosen approach is particularly well-suited to the context of this study.

2018年开始的中美贸易战不断升级，对两国贸易格局产生了重大影响。这一事件可以被视为一种干预，导致了一系列报复行动，导致两个最大经济体之间出现了大量的经济和贸易摩擦。本文旨在运用先进的计量经济学方法分析贸易战效应的经济影响。我们的实证研究采用面板数据分析结合因子模型，灵感来自Hsiao， Ching and Wan（2012）和Bai， Li and Ouyang（2014）的方法，构建中美两国的贸易模式。通过使用多个国家的年度贸易数据作为对照组，我们分别构建了中国和美国的进口、出口和贸易平衡的反事实结果。在非平稳背景下，反事实结果表明，2018年后中国出口大幅下降，对美贸易顺差显著减少。与此同时，美国从中国的进口减少，符合贸易战减少贸易逆差的目标，而美国对中国的出口意外增加，可能受到第一阶段贸易协定的影响。我们还对治疗效果进行了随时间变化的动态排列测试，这确保了我们分析的严谨性和重要性，加强了估计效果的可靠性。最后，我们与其他方法进行了实证比较分析，以证明我们选择的方法特别适合本研究的背景。

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引用次数: 0

Narrative monetary policy expectation in China 叙述中国货币政策预期

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102568

Dandan Zhu , Xiangdong Wang , Yifan Zhang

This study introduces a novel narrative monetary policy expectation (

M P E^{N}

) index for China, constructed through the semantic analysis of more than one million economic news articles. While our

M P E^{N}

aligns with macro- and micro-survey-based monetary policy expectation indicators, it offers distinct advantages, including higher frequency, timeliness, and cost-effectiveness. Employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model, we find that the expectation of expansionary monetary policy is associated with economic downturns or inflation declines. Furthermore, monetary policy expectation is more responsive to GDP during downturns and more sensitive to CPI during economic booms.

本文通过对100多万篇经济新闻的语义分析，构建了一个新的中国货币政策预期（MPEN）指数。虽然我们的MPEN与基于宏观和微观调查的货币政策预期指标一致，但它具有明显的优势，包括更高的频率、及时性和成本效益。采用时变参数向量自回归模型，我们发现扩张性货币政策的预期与经济衰退或通货膨胀下降有关。此外，货币政策预期在经济低迷时期对GDP的反应更灵敏，在经济繁荣时期对CPI的反应更敏感。

引用次数: 0

Flood disasters, firm total factor productivity and adaptation behaviors 洪水灾害、企业全要素生产率与适应行为

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102570

Peiting Dong , Xin Yao

Climate change has caused increasingly intense and frequent flooding, resulting in substantial economic loss worldwide in recent years. This study examines the impact of flood disasters on manufacturing firm productivity in China. Using the matched geographic accurate data with firm location and inundated areas, we find that flood disasters result in 9.3 % significant loss on firm TFP, particularly for small-size firms, non-state-owned firms, coastland firms and specific sector firms. Scale effect and innovation effect contribute to these outcomes. Moreover, government intervention can significantly influence firms' adaptation behaviors in the context of floods. All of the estimation results provide preparedness and adaptation support for both private and public sectors.

近年来，气候变化导致洪水日益强烈和频繁，在世界范围内造成了巨大的经济损失。本研究探讨洪涝灾害对中国制造业企业生产力的影响。利用与企业位置和淹没面积相匹配的地理精确数据，我们发现洪涝灾害导致企业TFP显著损失9.3%，特别是对小型企业、非国有企业、沿海企业和特定行业的企业。规模效应和创新效应对这些结果都有贡献。此外，政府干预对企业在洪水环境下的适应行为有显著影响。所有的估计结果都为私营和公共部门提供了准备和适应支持。

引用次数: 0

Recovering after natural disasters: A stabilizing role of the government 自然灾害后的恢复：政府的稳定作用

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

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Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102569

Shu Liu, Yonghao Xu

This paper explores the patterns of corporate recovery following natural disasters, with a specific focus on the government’s role in facilitating this process. Our results reveal that firms recover fast following disasters in China, with the effect being more pronounced among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Mechanism analysis identifies the government’s direct and indirect capital injections as the primary drivers of this swift recovery, which help mitigate disruptions in corporate investments. Furthermore, this government intervention exhibits a nuanced nature. Corporate post-disaster recovery tends to be weaker (stronger) for SOEs (Non-SOEs) when local fiscal expenditure is stronger. Different government intervention methods exhibit a substitution effect. Overall, this paper underscores the noteworthy and intricate role of the government in stabilizing the economy.

本文探讨了自然灾害后企业恢复的模式，并特别关注政府在促进这一过程中的作用。我们的研究结果表明，中国的企业在灾难发生后恢复得很快，而且这种影响在国有企业中更为明显。机制分析认为，政府的直接和间接注资是经济快速复苏的主要推动力，有助于缓解企业投资中断。此外，这种政府干预表现出微妙的性质。当地方财政支出较强时，国企（非国企）的灾后恢复能力往往较弱（较强）。不同的政府干预方式表现出替代效应。总体而言，本文强调了政府在稳定经济方面的重要而复杂的作用。

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