中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

Learning from winning firms: Government innovation procurement and peer innovation efficiency

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102543

Hui Jiang , Yu Liu , Junqi Dong

Governments are major purchasers of goods and services globally. Although previous research highlights the role of government procurement in shaping business activities, the spillover effects on peer firms' innovation efficiency remain unexplored. Through a textual analysis that distinguishes innovation procurement from general government purchases, this study investigates the effects and underlying mechanisms of government innovation procurement on the innovation efficiency of peer firms. We find that government innovation procurement significantly enhances peer firms' innovation efficiency. Our mechanism analyses reveal that government innovation procurement sends positive signals, increasing peer firms' citations of procured firms' patents, thereby improving their innovation efficiency. The heterogeneity analyses indicate that this positive relationship is more pronounced when peer firms occupy comparable market positions, operate in regions with high-speed rail, have common analysts with the procured firms, and are classified as high-tech enterprises. We also find that central government procurement, cross-regional procurement, and evaluation methods involving “competitive consultation and negotiation” significantly enhance peer firms' innovation efficiency. Overall, our findings provide theoretical guidance and practical insights for governments to foster firm innovation and advance high-quality industrial development through innovation procurement.

各国政府是全球商品和服务的主要购买者。虽然以往的研究强调了政府采购在塑造企业活动中的作用，但其对同行企业创新效率的溢出效应仍未得到探讨。本文通过对创新采购与一般政府采购的实证分析，探讨了政府创新采购对同行企业创新效率的影响及其机制。研究发现，政府创新采购显著提高了同行企业的创新效率。我们的机制分析表明，政府创新采购发出了积极的信号，增加了同行企业对被采购企业专利的引用，从而提高了他们的创新效率。异质性分析表明，当同行企业占据可比的市场地位、在有高铁的地区运营、与被采购企业拥有共同的分析师、并被归类为高科技企业时，这种正相关关系更为明显。我们还发现，中央政府采购、跨区域采购和“竞争性协商谈判”评估方式显著提高了同行企业的创新效率。研究结果为政府通过创新采购促进企业创新、推动产业高质量发展提供了理论指导和实践启示。

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引用次数: 0

The employment effects of VAT rebate efficiency: Evidence from SMEs in China∗ 增值税退税率对就业的影响：来自中国中小企业的证据*

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102561

Bing Lu , Hong Ma , Jiashu Hu , Yuan Xu

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are pivotal for job creation in China. This study investigates whether improving the efficiency of Value-Added Tax (VAT) rebates can promote employment in SMEs. Using firm-level data from the National Tax Survey and Chinese Customs, we find that reducing VAT rebate delays significantly increases SME employment, both on the intensive margin—by expanding employment within existing firms—and on the extensive margin—by reducing the probability of exit from export markets. Furthermore, SMEs that face greater financial constraints exhibit heightened sensitivity to VAT rebate delays. Our findings highlight the importance of streamlining VAT rebate processes, particularly for financially constrained firms, to boost employment.

中小企业是中国创造就业的关键。本研究探讨提高增值税退税效率是否能促进中小企业就业。利用来自全国税务调查和中国海关的企业层面数据，我们发现，减少增值税退税延迟显著增加了中小企业的就业，无论是在集约型边际上——通过扩大现有企业内的就业，还是在粗放边际上——通过减少退出出口市场的可能性。此外，面临更大财务约束的中小企业对增值税退税延迟表现出更高的敏感性。我们的研究结果强调了简化增值税退税流程对促进就业的重要性，特别是对财务受限的公司而言。

引用次数: 0

The paradox of assistance: Chinese aid in Africa and economic expectations 援助的悖论：中国对非洲的援助与经济预期

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102579

Jialiang Zhu , Philip Akrofi Atitianti , Michael Appiah-Kubi , Joseph Amoah

This paper examines how exposure to Chinese development projects shapes economic expectations in Africa. We link AidData's geocoded project records to 70,060 Afrobarometer interviews from 2005 to 2023 and identify effects using a shift–share instrumental variables design that interacts movements in Chinese construction-input costs with pre-sample allocation patterns. We find that living within 25 km of an active Chinese project lowers the probability that respondents expect national economic conditions to improve and, more modestly, reduces optimism about their own living conditions. Mechanism tests show that exposure raises perceived corruption—especially of national officials—and erodes trust in the presidency, parliament, and local councils; higher perceived corruption is monotonically associated with lower economic optimism. Results are robust across alternative instrument lags, distance thresholds, and spatial-spillover controls, and they do not generalize to placebo outcomes or to analogous estimates for World Bank projects. The evidence reconciles mixed views of Chinese aid by highlighting governance signals as the channel through which localized experiences translate into both macro- and micro-oriented expectations.

本文考察了中国发展项目如何影响非洲的经济预期。我们将AidData的地理编码项目记录与2005年至2023年期间的70,060次非洲晴雨表访谈联系起来，并使用偏移份额工具变量设计确定影响，该设计将中国建筑投入成本的变动与样本前分配模式相互作用。我们发现，居住在一个活跃的中国项目的25公里范围内，降低了受访者预期国家经济状况改善的可能性，更温和地说，降低了他们对自己生活条件的乐观态度。机制测试表明，曝光会增加人们对腐败的感知——尤其是对国家官员——并侵蚀人们对总统、议会和地方议会的信任；较高的腐败感知与较低的经济乐观情绪单调相关。结果在替代工具滞后、距离阈值和空间溢出控制方面都是稳健的，并且不能推广到安慰剂结果或世界银行项目的类似估计。这些证据调和了对中国援助的不同看法，强调了治理信号是将本地化经验转化为宏观和微观导向期望的渠道。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of the host country's imports of Chinese digital products on carbon decoupling status 东道国进口中国数字产品对碳脱钩状态的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102526

Yibing Ding, Xiaoou Zhang, Ziwei Liu, Yining Sun

This paper incorporates both the carbon emission and economic development imperatives of host countries and applies the Tapio decoupling model to identify their decoupling status. Based on this assessment and in light of the evolving global landscape of digital trade, we construct a balanced panel dataset covering 176 countries from 2003 to 2020 to examine the impact of digital product imports from China—the world's largest exporter—on the green and sustainable development of other economies, as well as the underlying mechanisms. Empirical findings reveal that imports of Chinese digital products contribute to the improvement of host countries' carbon decoupling status. This positive effect operates primarily through two channels: the enhancement of green technological innovation and the increase in green total factor productivity. The effect is more pronounced among Belt and Road Initiative partner countries, nations with lower energy endowments, non-OECD members, and developing economies. Moreover, deeper integration into digital trade governance frameworks further amplifies the efficacy of Chinese digital products. The results of this paper provide theoretical references and practical insights for fully exploiting the efficacy of digital products of China, promoting the progress of green technology, and realizing the synergistic development of economic growth and environmental governance.

本文将东道国的碳排放和经济发展需求结合起来，运用Tapio解耦模型来识别它们的解耦状态。在此基础上，根据不断变化的全球数字贸易格局，我们构建了一个涵盖176个国家的平衡面板数据集，从2003年到2020年，研究了从世界上最大的出口国中国进口数字产品对其他经济体绿色和可持续发展的影响及其潜在机制。实证结果表明，中国数字产品进口有助于东道国碳脱钩状况的改善。这种积极效应主要通过促进绿色技术创新和提高绿色全要素生产率两种途径发挥作用。这种影响在“一带一路”倡议的伙伴国、能源禀赋较低的国家、非经合组织成员国和发展中经济体中更为明显。此外，更深入地融入数字贸易治理框架，进一步放大了中国数字产品的功效。本文的研究结果为充分发挥中国数字产品的功效，促进绿色技术的进步，实现经济增长与环境治理的协同发展提供了理论参考和实践见解。

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引用次数: 0

Pathway to prosperity or disparity?: The impact of regional IT penetration on common wealth 繁荣之路还是贫富差距之路？：地区资讯科技普及对共同财富的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102558

Peinan Ji , Linke Guo , Lianchao Yu , Xiangbin Yan

In the context of the continuous integration and development of new-generation information technology (IT) and various industries, it is particularly important to pay attention to how the IT-affected income gap between urban and rural residents changes to affect the common wealth. This study conducts an empirical study based on 310 balanced panel data of inter-provincial China from 2012 to 2022 to investigate the specific impact mechanism of the increase in regional IT penetration on income disparity. The study finds that: 1) increased regional IT penetration widens the urban-rural and regional income gaps; 2) increased regional IT penetration widens the urban-rural and regional income gaps through the use of digital inclusive finance and deepening the digital divide, respectively. This study concludes that the government should improve the infrastructure of digital technology in rural areas as soon as possible, give full play to the inclusive and convenient role of digital inclusive finance, alleviate the digital divide between urban and rural areas, and reduce the ‘Matthew effect’, to facilitate sustainable development.

在新一代信息技术（IT）与各行业不断融合发展的背景下，关注IT如何影响城乡居民收入差距的变化，进而影响共同财富，显得尤为重要。本文基于2012 - 2022年中国省际间310个均衡面板数据进行实证研究，探讨区域信息技术普及率提高对收入差距的具体影响机制。研究发现：1)区域信息技术普及率的提高扩大了城乡和区域收入差距；2)区域信息技术普及率的提高分别通过数字普惠金融的使用扩大了城乡和区域收入差距，加深了数字鸿沟。本研究认为，政府应尽快完善农村数字技术基础设施，充分发挥数字普惠金融的包容性和便利性作用，缓解城乡数字鸿沟，减少“马太效应”，促进可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Does digital finance affect energy consumption structure upgrading? Evidence from Chinese rural households 数字金融是否影响能源消费结构升级？来自中国农村家庭的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102515

Debao Hu , Yutian Lei , Chenzhe Zhai , Jiaxin Liu

As carbon neutrality debates escalate, household energy use has gained prominence of scholars. However, existing studies overly focus on consumption expenditure while sidelining the impact of digital finance. This research utilized Chinese household microdata to explore the nexus between digital finance and household energy structure. The empirical results confirm its facilitative effect. The mechanisms of action include infrastructure construction, increased household environmental literacy, improved payment environments, and enhanced risk hedging ability. Regional and policy heterogeneities exist, and the energy structure upgrading aligns with the energy stacking theory. The findings thus shed light on digital finance's role in promoting sustainable household energy transitions.

随着碳中和争论的升级，家庭能源使用受到了学者们的关注。然而，现有的研究过于关注消费支出，而忽略了数字金融的影响。本研究利用中国家庭微观数据，探讨数字金融与家庭能源结构之间的关系。实证结果证实了其促进作用。其作用机制包括基础设施建设、家庭环境素养的提高、支付环境的改善和风险对冲能力的增强。区域异质性和政策异质性均存在，能源结构升级符合能源叠加理论。因此，研究结果揭示了数字金融在促进可持续家庭能源转型方面的作用。

引用次数: 0

The impact of National Volume-Based Procurement policy on healthcare expenditure and provider behavior in China 国家批量采购政策对中国医疗保健支出和提供者行为的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102520

Yiru Wang , Tianjun Li , Xiangshi Liu , Wenbin Zang

To curb rising medical expenses, the Chinese government launched a national volume-based procurement (NVBP) policy for high-value medical consumables. This study evaluates its impact on coronary stents, the first targeted category implemented in 2021. Using inpatient records for all percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients in a large pilot city and a time regression discontinuity design, we examined effects on healthcare expenditures, care intensities, treatment outcomes, service volume, and treatment patterns. The results showed a significant 35.2 % decrease in average total expenditure, primarily driven by a 65.4 % reduction in medical supplies and consumables fees. However, the policy also led to unintended provider responses, including increased stents implanted per patient, a 43.3 % rise in weekly service volume, and a higher likelihood of using alternative, costlier treatment patterns. No significant impact was found on 30-day readmissions, but a slight increase in in-hospital mortality was observed. Importantly, analysis by insurance status revealed distinct provider strategies: expanding PCI volume for higher-coverage patients and increasing stent use per procedure for lower-coverage patients. Dynamic analysis indicated sustained reductions in expenditures over time, though effects on care intensities diminished after a few months. These findings suggest that while NVBP effectively reduced patient-level healthcare expenditures, it raised concerns about its broader impact on aggregate healthcare spending and provider behavior.

为了遏制不断上涨的医疗费用，中国政府推出了高价值医疗耗材的全国批量采购政策。这项研究评估了其对冠状动脉支架的影响，冠状动脉支架是2021年实施的第一个目标类别。利用一个大型试点城市所有经皮冠状动脉介入治疗（PCI）患者的住院记录和时间回归不连续设计，我们检查了对医疗保健支出、护理强度、治疗结果、服务量和治疗模式的影响。结果显示，平均总支出大幅减少35.2%，主要原因是医疗用品和消耗品费用减少了65.4%。然而，该政策也导致了意想不到的提供者反应，包括每个患者植入的支架增加，每周服务量增加43.3%，使用替代的可能性更高，更昂贵的治疗模式。对30天再入院没有发现显著影响，但观察到住院死亡率略有增加。重要的是，保险状况的分析揭示了不同的提供者策略：为高覆盖率患者扩大PCI容量，为低覆盖率患者增加每次手术的支架使用。动态分析表明，随着时间的推移，支出持续减少，尽管对护理强度的影响在几个月后减弱。这些发现表明，虽然NVBP有效地降低了患者层面的医疗支出，但它引起了人们对其对总体医疗支出和提供者行为的更广泛影响的担忧。

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引用次数: 0

The time-varying zone-like and asymmetric preference of central banks: Evidence from China 央行的时变区域和不对称偏好：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102517

Chuanglian Chen , Xiaobin Liu , Jun Yu , Tao Zeng

This paper develops a framework to investigate the time-varying asymmetric and zone-like preferences of a central bank. We derive the optimal forward-looking monetary policy rule and explore four distinct types of loss related to inflation, output, and leverage, resulting in 64 distinct models. We estimate these models and utilize the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to select the most suitable one. Using data from 1996 to 2022, we find that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC): (1) reacts to inflation gaps with slight asymmetry, featuring a no-intervention zone between -1% and 1%; (2) intervenes asymmetrically in output gaps, displaying stronger inclination toward averting overheating than downturns; (3) applies symmetric regulation to leverage gaps. These findings underscore the PBoC’s adaptability and responsiveness to economic fluctuations and its preference for risk management.

本文建立了一个框架来研究央行的时变不对称和类区域偏好。我们推导了最优前瞻性货币政策规则，并探讨了与通胀、产出和杠杆相关的四种不同类型的损失，得出了64种不同的模型。我们对这些模型进行估计，并利用赤池信息准则（Akaike information criterion， AIC）选择最合适的模型。使用1996年至2022年的数据，我们发现中国人民银行（PBoC）：(1)对通胀缺口的反应具有轻微的不对称性，其特征是-1%至1%之间的无干预区；(2)对产出缺口进行不对称干预，表现出更强的防止过热的倾向；(3)对杠杆缺口进行对称调节。这些发现突显了中国央行对经济波动的适应性和反应性，以及它对风险管理的偏好。

引用次数: 0

The effect of broadband internet on children's weight: Evidence from China 宽带互联网对儿童体重的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102540

Weisong Cheng , Hao Xu

This study employs ten-wave data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), covering the period from 1989 to 2015. It leverages the nationwide internet speed upgrading project launched in the early 21st century as an exogenous shock. Using this variation, we construct a difference-in-differences model to identify the causal effect of broadband internet access on children’s weight outcomes. The results show that broadband internet significantly increases the probability of children being overweight. Robustness tests support these results. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the weights of children who are older and in urban are more affected by broadband internet. Mechanism analysis reveals that broadband internet increases children’s sedentary game activities time, decreases their physical activities time, and increases their snack intake and total energy intake. This study underscores the significance of coordinated regulation of children's gaming activities by parents, schools, communities, and the government, in order to effectively reduce children's online game time, mitigate the risk of overweight, and alleviate the economic burden associated with childhood overweight.

本研究采用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）的十波数据，时间跨度为1989 - 2015年。它利用了21世纪初启动的全国互联网速度升级工程作为外生冲击。利用这一变化，我们构建了一个差异中的差异模型，以确定宽带互联网接入对儿童体重结果的因果影响。结果表明，宽带互联网显著增加了儿童超重的可能性。稳健性测试支持这些结果。异质性分析表明，年龄较大和城市儿童的体重受宽带网络的影响更大。机制分析表明，宽带网络增加了儿童久坐游戏活动时间，减少了儿童身体活动时间，增加了儿童零食摄入量和总能量摄入量。本研究强调了家长、学校、社区和政府协调监管儿童游戏活动的重要性，以有效减少儿童网络游戏时间，减轻超重风险，减轻与儿童超重相关的经济负担。

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引用次数: 0

Recovering after natural disasters: A stabilizing role of the government 自然灾害后的恢复：政府的稳定作用

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102569

Shu Liu, Yonghao Xu

This paper explores the patterns of corporate recovery following natural disasters, with a specific focus on the government’s role in facilitating this process. Our results reveal that firms recover fast following disasters in China, with the effect being more pronounced among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Mechanism analysis identifies the government’s direct and indirect capital injections as the primary drivers of this swift recovery, which help mitigate disruptions in corporate investments. Furthermore, this government intervention exhibits a nuanced nature. Corporate post-disaster recovery tends to be weaker (stronger) for SOEs (Non-SOEs) when local fiscal expenditure is stronger. Different government intervention methods exhibit a substitution effect. Overall, this paper underscores the noteworthy and intricate role of the government in stabilizing the economy.

本文探讨了自然灾害后企业恢复的模式，并特别关注政府在促进这一过程中的作用。我们的研究结果表明，中国的企业在灾难发生后恢复得很快，而且这种影响在国有企业中更为明显。机制分析认为，政府的直接和间接注资是经济快速复苏的主要推动力，有助于缓解企业投资中断。此外，这种政府干预表现出微妙的性质。当地方财政支出较强时，国企（非国企）的灾后恢复能力往往较弱（较强）。不同的政府干预方式表现出替代效应。总体而言，本文强调了政府在稳定经济方面的重要而复杂的作用。

引用次数: 0

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