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The gig economy and household financial vulnerability 零工经济和家庭财务脆弱性
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102581
Gecheng Yuan , Weijie Lu , Xinyi Wu , Li Zhou
Using a combination of manually collected data and the China Household Finance Survey from 2011 to 2019, we explore the effect of the gig economy on household financial vulnerability. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the spatial and temporal variation in the presence of ride-hailing and food delivery services across Chinese cities. Employing a staggered difference-in-difference (DID) strategy, we find that the entry of gig platforms into a city is associated with a 5.97 % reduction in household financial vulnerability. This effect is more pronounced among households with lower wealth levels, lower female employment ratios, lower educational levels, as well as among households in poorer regions and areas with higher unemployment rates. To shed light on the mechanisms, we provide evidence that the entry of gig platforms provides households with additional income sources, reduces their liquidity constraints, and improves entrepreneurial quality. Our study contributes to the literature by highlighting the potential of the gig economy to serve as a buffer against financial instability, particularly for vulnerable populations.
我们结合2011年至2019年的人工收集数据和《中国家庭金融调查》,探讨了零工经济对家庭金融脆弱性的影响。为了解决内生性问题,我们利用了中国城市中网约车和外卖服务的时空变化。采用交错差中差(DID)策略,我们发现零工平台进入城市与家庭财务脆弱性降低5.97%有关。这种影响在财富水平较低、女性就业率较低、受教育程度较低的家庭以及较贫穷地区和失业率较高地区的家庭中更为明显。为了阐明这一机制,我们提供的证据表明,零工平台的进入为家庭提供了额外的收入来源,减少了他们的流动性约束,并提高了创业质量。我们的研究通过强调零工经济作为金融不稳定缓冲的潜力,特别是对弱势群体来说,为文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
The paradox of assistance: Chinese aid in Africa and economic expectations 援助的悖论:中国对非洲的援助与经济预期
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102579
Jialiang Zhu , Philip Akrofi Atitianti , Michael Appiah-Kubi , Joseph Amoah
This paper examines how exposure to Chinese development projects shapes economic expectations in Africa. We link AidData's geocoded project records to 70,060 Afrobarometer interviews from 2005 to 2023 and identify effects using a shift–share instrumental variables design that interacts movements in Chinese construction-input costs with pre-sample allocation patterns. We find that living within 25 km of an active Chinese project lowers the probability that respondents expect national economic conditions to improve and, more modestly, reduces optimism about their own living conditions. Mechanism tests show that exposure raises perceived corruption—especially of national officials—and erodes trust in the presidency, parliament, and local councils; higher perceived corruption is monotonically associated with lower economic optimism. Results are robust across alternative instrument lags, distance thresholds, and spatial-spillover controls, and they do not generalize to placebo outcomes or to analogous estimates for World Bank projects. The evidence reconciles mixed views of Chinese aid by highlighting governance signals as the channel through which localized experiences translate into both macro- and micro-oriented expectations.
本文考察了中国发展项目如何影响非洲的经济预期。我们将AidData的地理编码项目记录与2005年至2023年期间的70,060次非洲晴雨表访谈联系起来,并使用偏移份额工具变量设计确定影响,该设计将中国建筑投入成本的变动与样本前分配模式相互作用。我们发现,居住在一个活跃的中国项目的25公里范围内,降低了受访者预期国家经济状况改善的可能性,更温和地说,降低了他们对自己生活条件的乐观态度。机制测试表明,曝光会增加人们对腐败的感知——尤其是对国家官员——并侵蚀人们对总统、议会和地方议会的信任;较高的腐败感知与较低的经济乐观情绪单调相关。结果在替代工具滞后、距离阈值和空间溢出控制方面都是稳健的,并且不能推广到安慰剂结果或世界银行项目的类似估计。这些证据调和了对中国援助的不同看法,强调了治理信号是将本地化经验转化为宏观和微观导向期望的渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Automation and household conflict: How industrial robots reduce domestic violence risk 自动化与家庭冲突:工业机器人如何降低家庭暴力风险
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102577
Weibing Li, Mingyang Li, Siyuan Chen
Existing studies have extensively examined the impact of industrial robots on the labor market but have paid relatively less attention to their effects on micro-level family behavior. This paper constructs a domestic violence risk index using court judgements and finds a significant negative impact of industrial robots on domestic violence risk. A series of robustness checks validates the credibility of this conclusion. Mechanism analysis indicates that industrial robots contribute to reducing the risk of domestic violence by promoting women's economic empowerment, increasing their educational attainment, and improving psychological well-being—particularly among men. Moreover, the negative effect of industrial robots on domestic violence risk is particularly pronounced in regions with lower levels of traditional culture or economic development, as well as higher levels of population mobility and vocational training. This research sheds light on the unforeseen social consequences of industrial intelligence and provides empirical evidence for preventing domestic violence.
现有的研究已经广泛地研究了工业机器人对劳动力市场的影响,但相对较少关注它们对微观层面家庭行为的影响。本文利用法院判决构建了家庭暴力风险指数,发现工业机器人对家庭暴力风险存在显著的负向影响。一系列的稳健性检验验证了这一结论的可信度。机制分析表明,工业机器人通过促进妇女的经济赋权、提高她们的受教育程度和改善心理健康(尤其是男性),有助于降低家庭暴力的风险。此外,在传统文化或经济发展水平较低、人口流动性和职业培训水平较高的地区,工业机器人对家庭暴力风险的负面影响尤为明显。本研究揭示了工业智能不可预见的社会后果,并为预防家庭暴力提供了经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
Can digital transformation expand the boundaries of the earnings potential of commercial banks? Evidence from China 数字化转型能否拓展商业银行盈利潜力的边界?来自中国的证据
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102576
Ning Zhu , Biyin Ma , Bing Wang , Xuan Tang , Zhiqian Yu
Digital transformation (DT), as a multidimensional indicator for reshaping the profitability models of commercial banks, has become the focus of attention in the banking sector. This paper models a two-stage banking technology that incorporates DT as an intermediate variable to measure its effects on banking earning potential (EP). Moreover, nonparametric local polynomial regression and coupling analysis are adopted to examine the mechanism through which DT affects banking EP. Additionally, a comparative analysis is conducted to assess the heterogeneous effects of three subdimensions of DT and three bank types. For the empirical analysis, 175 Chinese commercial banks are used as samples for the period 2010–2021. DT has a nonlinear positive effect on banking EP, with state-owned commercial banks outperforming joint-stock commercial banks and small commercial banks. However, there are potential conflicts among the three subdimensions of DT. With respect to the disaggregation of banking EP, DT expands banking EP primarily by increasing potential profits. However, DT has the potential to increase the degree of credit risk exposure associated with nonperforming loans. Finally, sensitivity analysis confirms the stability of the results and calculates the importance of each variable in shaping banking EP. This paper can provide theoretical insights and practical guidance for Chinese commercial banks in optimizing DT strategies while balancing profitability enhancement with risk management.
数字化转型作为重塑商业银行盈利模式的多维指标,已成为银行业关注的焦点。本文建立了一个两阶段银行技术模型,将DT作为中间变量来衡量其对银行盈利潜力(EP)的影响。此外,采用非参数局部多项式回归和耦合分析来考察DT影响银行EP的机制。此外,本文还对DT的三个子维度和三种银行类型的异质性效应进行了比较分析。实证分析以中国175家商业银行为样本,时间跨度为2010-2021年。DT对银行绩效有非线性正向影响,国有商业银行绩效优于股份制商业银行和小商业银行。然而,DT的三个子维度之间存在潜在的冲突。对于银行业利润的分解,DT主要通过增加潜在利润来扩大银行业利润。然而,DT有可能增加与不良贷款相关的信用风险暴露程度。最后,通过敏感性分析验证了结果的稳定性,并计算了各变量对银行收益形成的重要性。本文可以为我国商业银行在平衡盈利能力提升与风险管理的同时优化DT战略提供理论见解和实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
Global value chain position, industrial policy, and bank loan allocation: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms 全球价值链地位、产业政策与银行贷款配置:来自中国制造业企业的证据
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102575
ShiYi Liu, HaiYue Liu, WeiKe Li
The rapid expansion of global value chains (GVCs) has deepened interconnections among countries and regions and reshaped industrial strategies and domestic capital allocations. Using a dataset of 2600 listed manufacturing firms in China from 2005 to 2020, this study finds that firms in industries that have lower GVC positions (LGPI firms), such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced materials, obtain a greater number of bank loans, particularly medium- and long-term loans and policy bank loans. The relationship is more pronounced for firms in regional strategic pillar and technology-intensive industries, state-owned firms, and those with lower operational risks and stronger debt repayment capacity. The main mechanisms include a compensatory effect (compensation for emerging strategic firms), a strategic response effect (response to the China-U.S. trade friction), and a technological support effect (support for firm R&D and digital transformation). The economic consequence tests indicate that the higher number of bank loans allocated to LGPI firms improves their total factor productivity and innovation patent output. Collectively, our findings reveal the evolving GVC competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector and the significant role financial institutions play in strengthening these less dominant but strategically important industries.
全球价值链的快速扩张,深化了国家和地区之间的联系,重塑了产业战略和国内资本配置。利用2005 - 2020年中国2600家制造业上市公司的数据,研究发现,新能源、航空航天、先进材料等全球价值链地位较低的行业(LGPI)的企业获得的银行贷款更多,尤其是中长期贷款和政策性银行贷款。这种关系在区域战略支柱和技术密集型产业、国有企业、经营风险较低、偿债能力较强的企业中更为明显。其主要机制包括补偿效应(对新兴战略企业的补偿)、战略响应效应(对中美战略企业的响应)和战略响应效应。贸易摩擦)和技术支持效应(对企业研发和数字化转型的支持)。经济后果检验表明,银行贷款越多,低成本企业的全要素生产率和创新专利产出越高。总体而言,我们的研究结果揭示了中国制造业全球价值链竞争力的演变,以及金融机构在加强这些不太占主导地位但具有重要战略意义的行业方面发挥的重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
A measure of industrial clustering: Considering relatedness and scale 产业集群的测度:考虑关联性和规模
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102578
Jianqing Ruan , Xiaobo Zhang
An industrial cluster is a geographic area with a concentration of large numbers of firms in related industries. However, many clustering measures, such as regional specialization and industrial concentration measures, often overlook the two core features of clusters: industrial relatedness and scale. A few recently developed measures which address both factors are limited to specific industries and do not provide a regional-level perspective. In this paper, we introduce a novel clustering index that incorporates both relatedness and scale. Taking China as an example, we demonstrate that our index significantly outperforms existing measures in predicting major industrial clusters, both in the short and long term. Additionally, we show a positive correlation between the initial level of our clustering index and subsequent local economic performance, as measured by nighttime light intensity, patent grants, and the number of new businesses.
产业集群是指大量相关产业企业集中的地理区域。然而,许多集群测度,如区域专业化和产业集中度测度,往往忽视了集群的两个核心特征:产业关联度和规模。最近制定的一些处理这两个因素的措施仅限于具体行业,没有提供区域一级的观点。本文提出了一种结合相关性和尺度的聚类指标。以中国为例,我们证明我们的指数在预测主要产业集群的短期和长期方面都明显优于现有的方法。此外,我们还展示了集群指数的初始水平与随后的当地经济表现之间的正相关关系,这是通过夜间灯光强度、专利授予和新企业数量来衡量的。
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引用次数: 0
The border effect of industrial development in China 中国工业发展的边界效应
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102571
Siru Chen , Guangjun Shen , Li Zhang
Administrative divisions significantly influence China's economic integration and industrial layout. This study documents a stylized fact of land allocation in China: the less-developed cities are inclined to lease industrial land near their border with more-developed cities. We call it the “border effect.” Using detailed information on over a million transactions of land plots, we construct a city-level panel dataset spanning from 2007 to 2019 to explore the border effect. The empirical analysis shows that a city leases 1.49 percentage points more industrial land near its border with a more-developed city on average, as compared with its border with a less-developed city. The border effect is robust to alternative measures and various specifications, and more profound for cities left behind their adjacent cities by a wide margin. Mechanism analysis reveals that the land constraint of more-developed cities and their strategic land-use expansion to less-developed neighbors are the main causes of the border effect.
行政区划对中国经济一体化和产业布局具有显著影响。本研究记录了中国土地分配的一个风格化事实:欠发达城市倾向于租赁与较发达城市接壤的工业用地。我们称之为“边界效应”。利用超过一百万宗土地交易的详细信息,我们构建了2007年至2019年的城市级面板数据集,以探索边界效应。实证分析表明,与欠发达城市相比,一个城市在其与较发达城市边界附近的工业用地租赁平均高出1.49个百分点。边界效应对替代措施和各种规格都很强大,对远远落后于邻近城市的城市来说更为深刻。机制分析表明,较发达城市的土地约束和向欠发达城市的战略性用地扩张是边界效应产生的主要原因。
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引用次数: 0
Background ambiguity and intertemporal choice: An experimental study on the effect of summer vacation 背景歧义与跨期选择:暑假影响的实验研究
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102574
Miao Jin , Jian Li , Juanjuan Meng , Jingwei Sun
This paper examines the role of background ambiguity in intertemporal choice. Using natural variation in background ambiguity from the uncertainty surrounding summer vacation and a within-subject difference-in-differences experimental design, we find that individuals tend to avoid allocating money to the summer period, leading to nonmonotonic changes in discount rates. To investigate the underlying mechanism, we exogenously increase summer planning efforts and find that this reduces perceived background ambiguity about summer and increases individuals' willingness to allocate money to that period. These findings suggest that background ambiguity plays an important role in shaping intertemporal preferences.
本文探讨了背景歧义在跨期选择中的作用。利用暑假周围不确定性背景模糊的自然变化和被试差异中差异实验设计,我们发现个体倾向于避免将资金分配到夏季,导致贴现率的非单调变化。为了研究潜在的机制,我们外生地增加了夏季计划的努力,并发现这减少了对夏季的感知背景歧义,并增加了个人将资金分配到该时期的意愿。这些发现表明,背景模糊性在形成跨期偏好中起着重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Adverse sentiments in the American media houses towards the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI): An analysis of the taxonomy, trend, texture, and tendency 美国媒体对“一带一路”倡议的负面情绪:分类、趋势、结构和趋势分析
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102573
Tariq H. Malik , Jack W. Hou
While the Chinese narrative promotes inclusive development, shared economies and sustainable futures, the American narrative highlights its negative impact on the world. This study explores whether the narratives of the leading news media in the USA emit negative sentiments towards the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) project over the last 10 years, from the BRI's birth in 2013 to adolescence in 2023. During this period, some 3569 articles were written in the two prominent publications in the USA—The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Dow Jones Newswires (DJN) concerning the BRI. This study analyzed them using media theories to discern the prevailing attitudes and perceptions expressed in these articles in terms of heuristics (taxonomy, temporality, texture, and tendency). We made four discoveries related to the sentiments contextualised in the media narratives about the BRI project. First, the WSJ embeds negative sentiments in its narrative more than the DJN does. Second, the temporal line reveals that negative sentiment increased as the BRI project grew towards youth. Third, the concrete (vs abstract) texture of the narrative is more negative and WSJ is more concrete than DJN is. Fourth, the political discourse in the context (people, groups, country) reveals negative tendencies, but business discourse in the institutional/corporate contexts reveals positive tendencies. These findings offer valuable insights into the evolving perceptions and attitudes surrounding the BRI project in influential global media outlets in America, providing a nuanced understanding of how media framing (taxonomy), temporality, texture, and tendency are driving the discourse and geopolitical influence on the public mind.
中国的叙事提倡包容性发展、共享经济和可持续未来,而美国的叙事则强调其对世界的负面影响。本研究探讨了从2013年“一带一路”倡议诞生到2023年“一带一路”倡议进入青春期的过去10年里,美国主要新闻媒体的叙事是否对“一带一路”项目发出了负面情绪。在此期间,美国两大主要媒体《华尔街日报》和道琼斯通讯社就“一带一路”倡议发表了3569篇文章。本研究运用媒体理论对这些文章进行分析,以启发式方法(分类、时间性、质地和倾向)来辨别这些文章中表达的主流态度和看法。我们发现了四个与媒体对“一带一路”项目的描述相关的观点。首先,《华尔街日报》比《日本日报》更多地在其报道中嵌入负面情绪。其次,时间线显示,随着“一带一路”项目向年轻人发展,负面情绪有所增加。第三,具体(相对于抽象)的叙事结构更消极,WSJ比DJN更具体。第四,政治话语在语境(人、群体、国家)中表现出消极倾向,而商业话语在制度/公司语境中表现出积极倾向。这些发现为了解美国有影响力的全球媒体对“一带一路”项目的看法和态度的演变提供了有价值的见解,并提供了对媒体框架(分类)、时间性、质地和趋势如何推动话语和地缘政治对公众思想的影响的细致理解。
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引用次数: 0
Founder control and breakthrough innovation: Evidence from high-tech firms in China 创始人控制与突破性创新:来自中国高科技企业的证据
IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102572
Zi-Qi Zhang , Bao-Jun Tang , Zhi Su , Yongji Zhang
We examine the effect of founder control on breakthrough innovation among Chinese high-tech firms from 2008 to 2022. We measure founder control by the equity held by founders actively involved in governance and identify breakthrough innovation with Sentence-BERT (SBERT) embeddings of patent texts. We find a strong positive association between founder control and future breakthrough innovation. Using unexpected founder departures as an instrument, our identification strategy establishes a robust causal relationship. The underlying mechanisms include talent investment, internal discipline, strategic reorientation, and technological resilience. The effect is heterogeneous across founding team's size, internal structure, attributes, and tenure. Our results support a structural view of founder governance where concentrated control serves as an engine for corporate innovation.
本文研究了2008 - 2022年中国高新技术企业创始人控制权对突破性创新的影响。我们通过积极参与治理的创始人所持有的股权来衡量创始人的控制权,并通过专利文本的句子bert (SBERT)嵌入来识别突破性创新。我们发现,创始人控制权与未来突破性创新之间存在强烈的正相关关系。使用意想不到的创始人离开作为工具,我们的识别策略建立了一个强大的因果关系。其基本机制包括人才投入、内部纪律、战略重新定位和技术弹性。这种影响因创始团队的规模、内部结构、属性和任期而异。我们的研究结果支持创始人治理的结构性观点,其中集中控制是公司创新的引擎。
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引用次数: 0
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中国经济评论
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